politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Mr. Trump could be booted out quickly without impeachment

John_M said:

CarlottaVance said:

MarqueeMark said:

Do we know the timings of the Trump/May meeting, and if there will be a joint press conference?

Meeting mid day, press conference 13.00, working lunch 40 minutes later.

Edit. That's going to be a long 40 minutes....

If I had a sofa, I would be watching the joint presser from behind it. As it is, I think I'm going to have to watch it with subtitles only. I'm already cringing in anticipation.

What’s that 6pm UK time. Just in time for our evening news.

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

scotslass said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 23m23 minutes ago

Easy SNP hold on East Ayrshire authority last night:
http://britainelects.com/archives/council-by-elections/

Only 2% up on 2012 though, on same national swing SNP would be on just 34% in May

-4 for the Union, +2 for Indy.
Steady as she goes.

SNP got 55% in Kilmarnock at the 2015 general election so actually 7% down on that

You see this long, curved, yellow thing? It's an apple.

No. It's the SNP's trajectory

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

scotslass said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 23m23 minutes ago

Easy SNP hold on East Ayrshire authority last night:
http://britainelects.com/archives/council-by-elections/

Only 2% up on 2012 though, on same national swing SNP would be on just 34% in May

-4 for the Union, +2 for Indy.
Steady as she goes.

SNP got 55% in Kilmarnock at the 2015 general election so actually 7% down on that

You see this long, curved, yellow thing? It's an apple.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB-NnVpvQ78

Rod Liddle seems a bit disconsolate in the Trumptator:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/im-starting-to-think-that-brexit-will-kill-ukip/

The UKIP northern dream is fading away.

Stark_Dawning said:

Rod Liddle seems a bit disconsolate in the Trumptator:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/im-starting-to-think-that-brexit-will-kill-ukip/

The UKIP northern dream is fading away.

"My guess is that with a decent candidate, a quiescent Ukip and a split vote, Labour will just about hold Stoke. And the Tories will gain Copeland, again benefiting from an increased Lib Dem vote. How perverse will that be?"

I think this is alot more likely than the bunkum the Sun, and some of his Speccie chums have been putting about.

He's a smart cookie.

Theuniondivvie said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

I'm still looking at that bloody colourised Holocaust photo

Jesus.

For all that we say 'we will remember', the reality is that we don't really want to. We remember the event, the organisation, the clinical cruelty, the artefacts of bureaucracy, the Arbeit Macht Frei sign and the chimneys but remember the six million dead? Sure - that's a statistic. Six million lives of real people who lived, loved, feared, hoped, sang, worked and so on? No, just too horrible.

Genocide is nearly always unpopular after the event; preventing it beforehand - when it had genuine support, as such things must by definition have, even if out of only falsely-grounded mass hysteria - another matter. Remembering means nothing if not applied to the future, and future applications will be, as they always are, against marginalised and unpopular groups which are strong enough to constitute a perceived threat, weak enough to be taken on, and 'other' enough to be identifiably alien. Siding with such groups, which are rarely targeted without some reason that can be sold in a poster slogan or a two-second soundbite, takes bravery.

I think it's slightly unfair to imply (unless I've misunderstood you) that genocide had popular support in pre war Germany; oppression, confiscation of property, deportation, forced migration, 'resettlement' yes, the driving of children into execution pits and gas chambers no. The evil genius of the Nazis was to persuade the German population of the value of all those steps towards the Holocaust while successfully concealing the final destination, or helping the populace to conceal it from themselves. Afaics a very large number of Germans were able to persuade themselves both during and after the war that they had no conscious knowledge of what was happening 'in the east'.

It is also worth remembering that the Nazis dealt swiftly and very effectively with any opposition in Germany long before either the outbreak of war or the start of the Holocaust. Within 2 months of Hitler coming to power in 1933 he had sent 27,000 political and intellectual opponents to concentration and forced labour camps. Hundreds of thousands were eliminated in the 1930s either by imprisonment or execution. The population of Germany would have been thoroughly cowed by the loss of the whole intellectual opposition to Hitler by the time he invaded Poland.

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

scotslass said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 23m23 minutes ago

Easy SNP hold on East Ayrshire authority last night:
http://britainelects.com/archives/council-by-elections/

Only 2% up on 2012 though, on same national swing SNP would be on just 34% in May

-4 for the Union, +2 for Indy.
Steady as she goes.

What are your predictions for the Scottish locals in May? Lab to lose their last 4 councils? Any pickups by the SNp or Cons?

Nothing specific apart from the not very startling prediction that SLab is getting reamed in Glasgow; SCons will almost definitely add to their current tally of 1 councilor there. SNP will pick up councillors, Scons also, LDs maybe a few. It's all about Red, White & Blue Labour voters turning to the nearest Unionist alternative, and Reddish Labour voters sticking with it or going Green or SNP. I think SLab still have 5 councils, there's a chance they may all go NOC or SNP. SLab & SCon will be more willing to work together in NOC councils, but not sure if the SCons will have enough seats to be a factor in the current SLab controlled councils.

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It would be an enlightening pb poll if we were to guess on the Conservatives' vote share in the Copeland by-election.

I'll go 32 % :>

I can easily imagine something like

Labour 36%
Con 31%
UKIP 18%
Lib Dem 12%
Others 3%

For Labour to lose the Conservatives either need to improve their vote share or to see Labour collapse further than they do. The former doesn't look particularly likely, given that it hasn't happened in any by-election since the Conservatives entered government in 2010.

But evidently lots of gamblers feel differently.

EDIT: removed

Richard_Tyndall said:

Theuniondivvie said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

I'm still looking at that bloody colourised Holocaust photo

Jesus.

For all that we say 'we will remember', the reality is that we don't really want to. We remember the event, the organisation, the clinical cruelty, the artefacts of bureaucracy, the Arbeit Macht Frei sign and the chimneys but remember the six million dead? Sure - that's a statistic. Six million lives of real people who lived, loved, feared, hoped, sang, worked and so on? No, just too horrible.

Genocide is nearly always unpopular after the event; preventing it beforehand - when it had genuine support, as such things must by definition have, even if out of only falsely-grounded mass hysteria - another matter. Remembering means nothing if not applied to the future, and future applications will be, as they always are, against marginalised and unpopular groups which are strong enough to constitute a perceived threat, weak enough to be taken on, and 'other' enough to be identifiably alien. Siding with such groups, which are rarely targeted without some reason that can be sold in a poster slogan or a two-second soundbite, takes bravery.

I think it's slightly unfair to imply (unless I've misunderstood you) that genocide had popular support in pre war Germany; oppression, confiscation of property, deportation, forced migration, 'resettlement' yes, the driving of children into execution pits and gas chambers no. The evil genius of the Nazis was to persuade the German population of the value of all those steps towards the Holocaust while successfully concealing the final destination, or helping the populace to conceal it from themselves. Afaics a very large number of Germans were able to persuade themselves both during and after the war that they had no conscious knowledge of what was happening 'in the east'.

It is also worth remembering that the Nazis dealt swiftly and very effectively with any opposition in Germany long before either the outbreak of war or the start of the Holocaust. Within 2 months of Hitler coming to power in 1933 he had sent 27,000 political and intellectual opponents to concentration and forced labour camps. Hundreds of thousands were eliminated in the 1930s either by imprisonment or execution. The population of Germany would have been thoroughly cowed by the loss of the whole intellectual opposition to Hitler by the time he invaded Poland.

I hesitate because it's a harrowing novel, but "The Kindly Ones" is well worth reading, at the cost of the odd sleepless night.

I've thought a good deal about the Holocaust over the years, and wonder what I would have actually _done_ had I been (say) an Oberleutnant in the Heer. Lest we forget, Hitler had no compunction about executing members of his own armed forces.

Shadsy has suspended betting on the Tories winning both Copeland and Stoke double.

(Or has it been long suspended?)

Edit - Which is an arse, as that's what I was planning to do one of Sunday's threads on.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Shadsy has suspended betting on the Tories winning both Copeland and Stoke double.

(Or has it been long suspended?)

Edit - Which is an arse, as that's what I was planning to do one of Sunday's threads on.

Tricky to see the Tories winning Stoke !

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/824984949300326401

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Shadsy has suspended betting on the Tories winning both Copeland and Stoke double.

(Or has it been long suspended?)

Edit - Which is an arse, as that's what I was planning to do one of Sunday's threads on.

Tricky to see the Tories winning Stoke !

Messy three/four way in Stoke!

Could be Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber 1992 all over again.

A mate of mine is at their company meeting today.
Guest speaker is George Osborne.

@LOS_Fisher: Jo Stevens quits shadow cabinet over 3-line whip on Article 50 Bill. Interestingly, she was 1 of the few frontbenchers not to quit last June

These Labour refuseniks really are masters (or in most cases mistresses) of the most tortuous forms of mental gymnastics. How can Jo Stevens say she accepts the referendum result and in the same breath say she'll vote against implementing it? Either you accept it or you don't. You can't accept it whilst simultaneously voting to stop it.

Even Diane Abbott seems to get it:

“You have to remember how this looks to people in post-industrial Britain, former mining areas, the north, the Midlands, south Wales – it would look as if elites were refusing to listen to them.

It would be wrong. How could MPs vote for a referendum and then turn around and say: it went the wrong way so we are ignoring it?”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/27/jeremy-corbyn-article-50-vote-two-labour-whips-refuse

SeanT said:

Sitting on soi 8, Sukhumvit. Drinking g&t under the tropical stars. The chill out music fills the scented air. The hookers walk past in their hot pants, cackling, and eating fried cockroaches. Tuk tuk drivers gamble. A man sells stuffed toys to laughing, drunken tourists. The soaring skyscrapers sparkle in the sultry dark.

And another g&t arrives. And someone plays a guitar on a street corner. And I've written 20,000 words in eight days.

Bangkok in January is the best place on earth. I don't understand why EVERYONE isn't here. It's daft.

I prefer the solitary splendours of the Black Mountains and the gentle country of the Olchon valley. Each to their own Sean. Namaste.

Richard_Nabavi said:

These Labour refuseniks really are masters (or in most cases mistresses) of the most tortuous forms of mental gymnastics. How can Jo Stevens say she accepts the referendum result and in the same breath say she'll vote against implementing it? Either you accept it or you don't. You can't accept it whilst simultaneously voting to stop it.

Even Diane Abbott seems to get it:

“You have to remember how this looks to people in post-industrial Britain, former mining areas, the north, the Midlands, south Wales – it would look as if elites were refusing to listen to them.

It would be wrong. How could MPs vote for a referendum and then turn around and say: it went the wrong way so we are ignoring it?”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/27/jeremy-corbyn-article-50-vote-two-labour-whips-refuse

There are plenty on here who don't think that would be wrong!

The problem with what she is saying is that she doesn't mean it. She, Corbyn and McDonnell have rumbled that ignoring the result would probably get them beat in both by elections, & possibly be the death of the Labour Party, so they're saying what they have to say.

SeanT said:

Sitting on soi 8, Sukhumvit. Drinking g&t under the tropical stars. The chill out music fills the scented air. The hookers walk past in their hot pants, cackling, and eating fried cockroaches. Tuk tuk drivers gamble. A man sells stuffed toys to laughing, drunken tourists. The soaring skyscrapers sparkle in the sultry dark.

And another g&t arrives. And someone plays a guitar on a street corner. And I've written 20,000 words in eight days.

Bangkok in January is the best place on earth. I don't understand why EVERYONE isn't here. It's daft.

You’re right. Temperature should be remind one of the UK on a perfect June day. And you’re not far from Above Eleven, where they sell the only beer I’m unable to drink!

Scott_P said:

@LOS_Fisher: Jo Stevens quits shadow cabinet over 3-line whip on Article 50 Bill. Interestingly, she was 1 of the few frontbenchers not to quit last June

https://twitter.com/flashboy/status/824987346621911040

(Sorry, couldn't resist)

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Shadsy has suspended betting on the Tories winning both Copeland and Stoke double.

(Or has it been long suspended?)

Edit - Which is an arse, as that's what I was planning to do one of Sunday's threads on.

Betfair have added this, it might be liquid by Sunday. Particularly if PB'ers help.

I'd have thought it should be pretty much identical to the Stoke odds for the Tories.

I mean what do you make

P (Tories win Stoke, Don't win Copeland)

That probability has to be utterly tiny.

Richard_Nabavi said:

These Labour refuseniks really are masters (or in most cases mistresses) of the most tortuous forms of mental gymnastics. How can Jo Stevens say she accepts the referendum result and in the same breath say she'll vote against implementing it? Either you accept it or you don't. You can't accept it whilst simultaneously voting to stop it.

Even Diane Abbott seems to get it:

“You have to remember how this looks to people in post-industrial Britain, former mining areas, the north, the Midlands, south Wales – it would look as if elites were refusing to listen to them.

It would be wrong. How could MPs vote for a referendum and then turn around and say: it went the wrong way so we are ignoring it?”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/27/jeremy-corbyn-article-50-vote-two-labour-whips-refuse

There are number of arguments they can reasonably make.

1) They are reflecting the will of their (Remain) constituency.
2) The facts have materially changed since the vote (Trump) and we need to take another look.
3) Personal conscience.

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/824988270723469312

Jonathan said:

There are number of arguments they can reasonably make.

1) They are reflecting the will of their (Remain) constituency.
2) The facts have materially changed since the vote (Trump) and we need to take another look.
3) Personal conscience.

'Personal conscience' doesn't work, unless they voted against the referendum bill.

Nor for that matter does the result in their own constituency; if that was their view, again they should have voted against the referendum, on the basis that the decision should be taken by parliament. That would be a perfectly respectable view, just one that's not compatible with having voted for the referendum to happen.

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

There are plenty on here who don't think that would be wrong!

Yeah, but they weren't MPs who voted for the referendum.

I can see how you could take the view that the referendum was a mistake, should never have been called, and then quite consistently say you don't accept the result. What I don't see is how you can have supported the referendum and now refuse to accept the result.

Because they were too arrogant to think they'd lose. You're right that logical and moral consistency should make that position impossible, but these are Labour MPs we are talking about, they've been selling their supporters down the river for decades

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

Sounds perfect Sean - apart from the fried cockroaches! Have you e ver partaken? Not sure I could bring myself to.

I have. I once had to eat all the weirdest foods in S E Asia for a magazine piece. Fried cockroaches were easy. Salty, crunchy, earthy, mildly unpleasant. But not emetic.

But dried frog, duck fetus in egg, big grasshoppers, roast tarantula... Ugh.

Had deep fried frog when we there in November. Little tiny ones. Delicious. Fried grasshoppers not; legs got in the way!

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

Trump's BMI has been the subject of some speculation

http://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/to-your-health/wp/2016/10/06/just-how-big-is-trump-we-asked-5-experts-to-you-guessed-it-weigh-in

But his doctor said, or at least Trump said he said, that he is extremly healthy. So don’t speculate about it.

Trump is the healthiest leader ever to be seen in the whole, entire history of the world.

SeanT said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

Sitting on soi 8, Sukhumvit. Drinking g&t under the tropical stars. The chill out music fills the scented air. The hookers walk past in their hot pants, cackling, and eating fried cockroaches. Tuk tuk drivers gamble. A man sells stuffed toys to laughing, drunken tourists. The soaring skyscrapers sparkle in the sultry dark.

And another g&t arrives. And someone plays a guitar on a street corner. And I've written 20,000 words in eight days.

Bangkok in January is the best place on earth. I don't understand why EVERYONE isn't here. It's daft.

I prefer the solitary splendours of the Black Mountains and the gentle country of the Olchon valley. Each to their own Sean. Namaste.

I know the Olchon Valley and Black Mts very well! I grew up in Herefordshire.

The beauties of Craswall Abbey and Capel-y-Ffin are great indeed. But not so much in January. Rather be in Bangkok.

I'm sure it's warmer - which would be nice. However, I've found that, since I lost Jenny, I can't abide crowds of people. I'm probably lucky to have my dogs, otherwise I might go all Hikikomori. Cities. Ugh.

Are you able to tell us more about your thriller? Thought of a name?

Afternoon all

So we see Theresa May going to Washington to meet President Trump. The dance is being danced and tradition being maintained. We may choose to regard May's visit as some symbol of our strategic and geopolitical importance but Enda Kenny will meet Trump on March 17th and that must make Kenny quite important too.

I'm less convinced - Trump's phone calls to Putin and Merkel tomorrow may be of greater significance and interest.

May's robust restating of Reagan/Thatcher conservatism was interesting and clearly with a more mainstream GOP President such as a Rubio or a Jeb Bush there would be no problems at all. Trump is a maverick, possibly the most influential since Theodore Roosevelt.

The truth however is for all the talk of ripping up 20 years if foreign policy, there was plenty of interventionism in the 80s - Lebanon and Grenada being two obvious examples.

I'm not sure what to make of Trump and that may be the point. He's an American patriot and there's nothing wrong with that. The presupposition that America's interests and ours will always coincide will be tested as much by him as it has been by every other President.

The British response will be fascinating - do we simply follow the American lead blindly or do we not ? We haven't always done so - Wilson avoided British military involvement in Vietnam and as we know Eisenhower took a very different view from Eden on Suez.

All of this happened before we joined the EU so being outside again doesn't mean we have to slavishly follow Washington's lead. We do however need Trump to reaffirm his backing for NATO.

I can certainly appreciate American frustration that some European countries aren't pulling their weight but as long as Trump clearly and unequivocally states that America's border is NATO's border the message won't be lost on Putin. Any equivocation, however, from the President would be hugely destabilising.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/824984949300326401

Is she saying the voters - who voted to Leave the EU, depsite the case she made - are terribly mistaken?

Labour needs a new electorate. They've been rumbled by this one.

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/824988270723469312

Labour really is no longer functional as a party.

Someone take it out back and do the honourable thing.

Corbyn won't quit atleast until we have quit the E.U

Very good man.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

Disagree. Depends again on what your personal view on what the advisory referendum was for. You can interpret that in many ways.

No, you can't. You really can't. Not unless you are quite breathtakingly hypocritical.

Course you can. All it takes is to look at the world in a slightly different way to you.

(FWIW I am playing devil's advocate here. I don't share their view, but I can accept a case than MP can reject or amend this bill having previous backed the referendum. The best argument IMO is that things have materially changed since June.)

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/824984949300326401

Is she saying the voters - who voted to Leave the EU, depsite the case she made - are terribly mistaken?

Labour needs a new electorate. They've been rumbled by this one.

Who was it on here, who said May should have just done an A50 enabling bill, and would get loads of support for it?

These are the kinds of shenanigans May was hoping to avoid. Oh well.

If you're an MP. If you respect the will of the people. Then you will vote for the A50 bill.

If not, then we know how little respect for democracy you have.

Christian_Peoples_Alliance standing in Stoke.

Probably a net of a hundred or so lost UKIP votes there.

John_M said:

Casino_Royale said:

When is this press conference?

About 6pm our time I believe.

Yup - the networks are saying 1pm EST, after a 2 hour Oval Office meeting, which is 6pm GMT.

stodge said:

Afternoon all

So we see Theresa May going to Washington to meet President Trump. The dance is being danced and tradition being maintained. We may choose to regard May's visit as some symbol of our strategic and geopolitical importance but Enda Kenny will meet Trump on March 17th and that must make Kenny quite important too.

I'm less convinced - Trump's phone calls to Putin and Merkel tomorrow may be of greater significance and interest.

May's robust restating of Reagan/Thatcher conservatism was interesting and clearly with a more mainstream GOP President such as a Rubio or a Jeb Bush there would be no problems at all. Trump is a maverick, possibly the most influential since Theodore Roosevelt.

The truth however is for all the talk of ripping up 20 years if foreign policy, there was plenty of interventionism in the 80s - Lebanon and Grenada being two obvious examples.

I'm not sure what to make of Trump and that may be the point. He's an American patriot and there's nothing wrong with that. The presupposition that America's interests and ours will always coincide will be tested as much by him as it has been by every other President.

The British response will be fascinating - do we simply follow the American lead blindly or do we not ? We haven't always done so - Wilson avoided British military involvement in Vietnam and as we know Eisenhower took a very different view from Eden on Suez.

All of this happened before we joined the EU so being outside again doesn't mean we have to slavishly follow Washington's lead. We do however need Trump to reaffirm his backing for NATO.

I can certainly appreciate American frustration that some European countries aren't pulling their weight but as long as Trump clearly and unequivocally states that America's border is NATO's border the message won't be lost on Putin. Any equivocation, however, from the President would be hugely destabilising.

I'm surprised that more hasn't been made of Trump's tearing up of trade deals. He wants bilateral deals, because he thinks he is the best deal maker around and it's easier to screw countries one at a time than if they are in powerful trading blocs. That's also why he likes Brexit.

Scott_P said:

MarkHopkins said:

If you're an MP. If you respect the will of the people. Then you will vote for the A50 bill.

If not, then we know how little respect for democracy you have.

48% voted to stay. So 48% of MPs should vote against triggering, right?

Yes this 'will of the people' argument doesn't hold water.

OldKingCole said:

SeanT said:

Sitting on soi 8, Sukhumvit. Drinking g&t under the tropical stars. The chill out music fills the scented air. The hookers walk past in their hot pants, cackling, and eating fried cockroaches. Tuk tuk drivers gamble. A man sells stuffed toys to laughing, drunken tourists. The soaring skyscrapers sparkle in the sultry dark.

And another g&t arrives. And someone plays a guitar on a street corner. And I've written 20,000 words in eight days.

Bangkok in January is the best place on earth. I don't understand why EVERYONE isn't here. It's daft.

You’re right. Temperature should be remind one of the UK on a perfect June day. And you’re not far from Above Eleven, where they sell the only beer I’m unable to drink!

[Consults internet] 35C during the day, 22C at night, 51% humidity.... maybe that sounds good to you English, but I'll pass, I think. I'm enjoying the fresh, frosty Berkshire mornings at the moment.

and another one goes.

Jo Stevens has quit the shadow cabinet. She described herself as a "passionate European" and said leaving the EU would be a terrible mistake. Jeremy Corbyn has ordered his MPs to vote in favour of Article 50, which would trigger the process for the UK to leave the European Union.

Scott_P said:

MarkHopkins said:

If you're an MP. If you respect the will of the people. Then you will vote for the A50 bill.

If not, then we know how little respect for democracy you have.

48% voted to stay. So 48% of MPs should vote against triggering, right?

No, as you well know, it was a binary decision. The moment Leave won, then A50 (should have been) the inevitable consequence.

You don't give one third of the FA cup to the team that lost in a 2-1 final. The results are in. The decision is made. A50 should not be in doubt.

Scott_P said:

MarkHopkins said:

If you're an MP. If you respect the will of the people. Then you will vote for the A50 bill.

If not, then we know how little respect for democracy you have.

48% voted to stay. So 48% of MPs should vote against triggering, right?

Not the end of the world if that happens so long as 52% vote for triggering the rest can look like impotent undemocratic moron who have disrespected democracy and achieved nothing for it. Go for it.

Scott_P said:

MarkHopkins said:

If you're an MP. If you respect the will of the people. Then you will vote for the A50 bill.

If not, then we know how little respect for democracy you have.

48% voted to stay. So 48% of MPs should vote against triggering, right?

Erm...not quite. The referendum result was for us to leave. That DECISION is what should be respected, not the % that caused it.

Lord - even Diane Abbot gets this.

MarkHopkins said:

Scott_P said:

MarkHopkins said:

If you're an MP. If you respect the will of the people. Then you will vote for the A50 bill.

If not, then we know how little respect for democracy you have.

48% voted to stay. So 48% of MPs should vote against triggering, right?

No, as you well know, it was a binary decision. The moment Leave won, then A50 (should have been) the inevitable consequence.

You don't give one third of the FA cup to the team that lost in a 2-1 final. The results are in. The decision is made. A50 should not be in doubt.

You have to worry for these folk - they'd want nearly half the dog in a divorce settlement....

SouthamObserver said:

MPs voted for an advisory referendum, not a binding one. It is entirely consistent to ask for advice, but then not to take it. It may not be wise, but that is entirely different. Voters will decide.

That's dancing on the head of a pin. There was absolutely no suggestion whatsoever that the referendum was advisory in that sense, i.e. that the government and/or parliament felt free to ignore the result. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Tim_B said:

4) Following the Mexico wall visit debacle, Trump needs to show he can make a deal. He needs to show this. Likewise May needs a trade deal too, or at least much 'motion towards'. It is in neither of their interests for this relationship not to be able to work together.

But he is likely to knacker it with torture or Putin

Jonathan said:

The problem for Labour is not so much the position Corbyn has taken (or not taken) here. It's anaemic way in which he takes it and that it carries no weight.

A serial rebel cannot enforce a 3 line whip and the consequences for doing your own thing are zero. The PLP have already gone beyond what would normally be career ending.

Labour is broken.

There was an entirely consistent and marketable message to be built around Labour accepting the vote and advocating the softest Brexit possible, in contrast to the Tory pursuit of a hard Brexit. Corbyn and McDonnell - both fervently opposed to the single market for many years - were never the people to make it. Corbyn betrayed Labour during the referendum and has proved incapable of leading it ever since. Because of that there is no loyalty to him and he is not able to create party discipline. Every day that he stays makes the road back for the party a longer one.

OldKingCole said:

Animal_pb said:

OldKingCole said:

SeanT said:

Sitting on soi 8, Sukhumvit. Drinking g&t under the tropical stars. The chill out music fills the scented air. The hookers walk past in their hot pants, cackling, and eating fried cockroaches. Tuk tuk drivers gamble. A man sells stuffed toys to laughing, drunken tourists. The soaring skyscrapers sparkle in the sultry dark.

And another g&t arrives. And someone plays a guitar on a street corner. And I've written 20,000 words in eight days.

Bangkok in January is the best place on earth. I don't understand why EVERYONE isn't here. It's daft.

You’re right. Temperature should be remind one of the UK on a perfect June day. And you’re not far from Above Eleven, where they sell the only beer I’m unable to drink!

[Consults internet] 35C during the day, 22C at night, 51% humidity.... maybe that sounds good to you English, but I'll pass, I think. I'm enjoying the fresh, frosty Berkshire mornings at the moment.

The older I get the less and less keen I get on the British winter.

To each his own, I suppose. It's the season I find most pleasant. Plus, of course, it's the only time the Central Line feels anything other than sheer Purgatory.