You know, however doomy and turbulent the 21st century seems, and however many celebs died at a cruelly young age in 2016....
Sweet Fucking Jesus, thank the Lord this is not the 20th century. By this time in the 20th century millions of young men had already died in the trenches, and much much worse was to come.
Indeed. We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us. That generation that created the world we now live in. The world we are dismantling without a care.
"We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us"
Conservative, Unionist, Eurosceptics by and large. We have listened to them, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP want to ignore them
This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit.
Yep. If the UK were advocating leaving NATO, I'd be out with my flaming torch and pitchfork and heading for Downing Street. Brexit is a whole different thing.
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
I'm staying out, having taken Macron profits. The trouble for Macron is the French electoral system: he can beat either Fillon or LePen in a head-to-head but it is still not clear to me how Macron qualifies for the final two unless Fillon withdraws.
You know, however doomy and turbulent the 21st century seems, and however many celebs died at a cruelly young age in 2016....
Sweet Fucking Jesus, thank the Lord this is not the 20th century. By this time in the 20th century millions of young men had already died in the trenches, and much much worse was to come.
Indeed. We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us. That generation that created the world we now live in. The world we are dismantling without a care.
"We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us"
Conservative eurosceptics by and large. We have listened to them
Not true. Not a party thing.
Silly to try to make a party political point.
What a party political point that favours a party I don't support?!
Not support in the Farage sense?
'I can hardly believe that the PM is now using the phrases and words that I've been mocked for using for years. Real progress.'
'I can hardly believe Mrs May's words about our place in the world and with America. I've wanted all of these things for years.'
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
@Pulpstar What do you make of the odds on Betfair for the final two? Fillon/Macron seems by far the most unlikely combination in what is effectively a 3 horse race and yet it is as low as 3.8-3.85. For it to win, Le Pen would have to implode and her first round support seems to be very solid.
Le Pen/Macron is 3.65 / 4.2 - so punters aren't really sure tbh !
But surely more likely that Macron overtakes Fillon than both Macron and Fillon overtakes Le Pen. Le Pen probably has to drop about 5 points for that scenario to happen.
Yes, but both Macron and Fillon slaughter Le Pen in round 2. I can't 100% figure out the "last two" market - solely playing the Presidency market.
Fillon/Le Pen is rightfully favourite, Macron/Le Pen ought to be second & Macron/Fillon third.
The liquidity between the two dogs isn't so great.
FPT, Le May's opposition to the use of the atom bombs was based on his conviction that he could force Japan's surrender by "burning the nation", ie razing its cities to the ground by using incendiary weapons. It certainly wasn't based on any belief that surrender was imminent.
And it should be remembered that the most deadly bombing of the war (and ever) was not Hiroshima and was not Nagasaki but was the March 1945 firebombing of Tokyo. It has been forgotten for political reasons - opposition to atomic weaponary crowding out remembrance of that event - rather than any other.
Mr. T, I forget the precise figures but I once worked out the death toll equivalent if the Second Punic War happened today (with the UK as Rome). It would've killed off about 200 MPs and four Prime Ministers (give or take), and I think about five million people (maybe six now).
And that was in an age without mechanised warfare. The slaughter at Cannae wasn't replicated* until World War One, in Europe.
*Could make a case for Arausio, although that was self-inflicted as a heavily outnumbered Roman force was also riven with hatred between commanders. Teutoberg was an opportunistic ambush rather than a battle.
Mr. T, I forget the precise figures but I once worked out the death toll equivalent if the Second Punic War happened today (with the UK as Rome). It would've killed off about 200 MPs and four Prime Ministers (give or take), and I think about five million people (maybe six now).
And that was in an age without mechanised warfare. The slaughter at Cannae wasn't replicated* until World War One, in Europe.
*Could make a case for Arausio, although that was self-inflicted as a heavily outnumbered Roman force was also riven with hatred between commanders. Teutoberg was an opportunistic ambush rather than a battle.
Even Hannibal's army took casualties of about 25% at Cannae, an immensely high figure for a victorious army, and testimony to how hard the Romans fought even in defeat.
You know, however doomy and turbulent the 21st century seems, and however many celebs died at a cruelly young age in 2016....
Sweet Fucking Jesus, thank the Lord this is not the 20th century. By this time in the 20th century millions of young men had already died in the trenches, and much much worse was to come.
Indeed. We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us. That generation that created the world we now live in. The world we are dismantling without a care.
"We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us"
Conservative, Unionist, Eurosceptics by and large. We have listened to them, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP want to ignore them
This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit.
Yep. If the UK were advocating leaving NATO, I'd be out with my flaming torch and pitchfork and heading for Downing Street. Brexit is a whole different thing.
You know, however doomy and turbulent the 21st century seems, and however many celebs died at a cruelly young age in 2016....
Sweet Fucking Jesus, thank the Lord this is not the 20th century. By this time in the 20th century millions of young men had already died in the trenches, and much much worse was to come.
Indeed. We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us. That generation that created the world we now live in. The world we are dismantling without a care.
"We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us"
Conservative eurosceptics by and large. We have listened to them
Not true. Not a party thing.
Silly to try to make a party political point.
What a party political point that favours a party I don't support?!
Not support in the Farage sense?
'I can hardly believe that the PM is now using the phrases and words that I've been mocked for using for years. Real progress.'
'I can hardly believe Mrs May's words about our place in the world and with America. I've wanted all of these things for years.'
Well I don't vote for them, that's normally a fairly good guide.
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
@Pulpstar What do you make of the odds on Betfair for the final two? Fillon/Macron seems by far the most unlikely combination in what is effectively a 3 horse race and yet it is as low as 3.8-3.85. For it to win, Le Pen would have to implode and her first round support seems to be very solid.
Le Pen/Macron is 3.65 / 4.2 - so punters aren't really sure tbh !
But surely more likely that Macron overtakes Fillon than both Macron and Fillon overtakes Le Pen. Le Pen probably has to drop about 5 points for that scenario to happen.
I think it's possible (albeit unlikely) they're all around 25-27 points, with Macron picking up tactical votes from Left Front, Green and Socialist voters who are keen to avoid a Fillon vs Le Pen run-off.
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
I'm staying out, having taken Macron profits. The trouble for Macron is the French electoral system: he can beat either Fillon or LePen in a head-to-head but it is still not clear to me how Macron qualifies for the final two unless Fillon withdraws.
The scandal chips away at Fillon's support enough for Macron to overtake him is the scenario. If Macron makes the final two, he wins (I think). Le Pen gets beaten by both of them.
It's a decent puzzle but laying Le Pen is ultimately correct I think
Europe is not particularly religious, the Russians not particularly ideological.
Russia is both. And Russia isn't falling apart like the west is. Morale, including among young men, is far higher in Russia than in the US or in those little countries at the western tip of Eurasia.
I'm sorry, but I never find videos to be that compelling. I accept that the Russians are nationalist in a way that the West finds both quaint and alarming. I also accept that Russia has re-embraced the Orthodox church with gusto.
I don't see either as drivers for Russian tanks in the Fulda gap (or the Polish equivalent thereof), while fully appreciating the threat to the Baltics.
You know, however doomy and turbulent the 21st century seems, and however many celebs died at a cruelly young age in 2016....
Sweet Fucking Jesus, thank the Lord this is not the 20th century. By this time in the 20th century millions of young men had already died in the trenches, and much much worse was to come.
Indeed. We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us. That generation that created the world we now live in. The world we are dismantling without a care.
"We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us"
Conservative eurosceptics by and large. We have listened to them
Not true. Not a party thing.
Silly to try to make a party political point.
What a party political point that favours a party I don't support?!
Not support in the Farage sense?
'I can hardly believe that the PM is now using the phrases and words that I've been mocked for using for years. Real progress.'
'I can hardly believe Mrs May's words about our place in the world and with America. I've wanted all of these things for years.'
Well I don't vote for them, that's normally a fairly good guide.
You don't vote for them but you need them to reach the political outcomes you support. I daresay the ever decreasing gulf between Cons & UKIP makes that bed not too uncomfortable to lie in.
If he delivers on the economy, then yes. I don't think he will. He'll get bogged down in Congress on all sorts, he'll get involved in trade wars all over and even if some firms relocate to the rust belt, it'll be at such a high price in losses elsewhere that I can't see it ending well. Sure, he'll blame everyone else but after four years, that excuse might wear a bit thin.
It's all about the economy.
Who, in the past, has tried to inject stimulus into an economy (from a tax and spending perspective) that was already near capacity?
And what is the consequence, based on experience, of a government that implements widespread restrictions (or additional tariffs) on imports?
Regarding the first, I think it's easy to look at Reagan (and Trump does), as an example. But I don't think that's a good example. In 1980, taxes were high and the US economy was running well below capacity. There was therefore plenty of room for the economy to meet increased demand. It became a self-fulfilling prophecy.
How about Anthony Barber? His cut taxes and increased spending (by rather less than the 4% of GDP that is proposed by Donald Trump) when the UK economy was running near capacity. The consequence was that the UK sucked in more imports, there was a housing bubble, and then inflation shot up.
Thinking about tariffs on imported goods. They will clearly mess up supply chains and raise consumer prices.
Could American be in for a bout of inflation? (Something that would be very good for people with billions of dollars of fixed interest long-term debt, like property developers.)
Neither NATO nor the Russian Federation has the logistical or production tail to support anything more than a brushfire war. Sure, we could sustain a light infantry/insurgency style conflict (a la Ukraine), but that's of a completely different order to the slaughters of the 20th century.
The problem is everybody plans for the brushfire war, then it keeps going and escalates...
Well indeed. JohnM's comment that "Neither NATO nor the Russian Federation has the logistical or production tail to support anything more than a brushfire war" was also true of the UK in 1914 (and, even more so, the USA).
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
With the hit in support that Fillon is taking, oughtn't Macron be favourite in a run-off between the two?
You know, however doomy and turbulent the 21st century seems, and however many celebs died at a cruelly young age in 2016....
Sweet Fucking Jesus, thank the Lord this is not the 20th century. By this time in the 20th century millions of young men had already died in the trenches, and much much worse was to come.
Indeed. We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us. That generation that created the world we now live in. The world we are dismantling without a care.
"We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us"
Conservative, Unionist, Eurosceptics by and large. We have listened to them, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP want to ignore them
This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit.
Yep. If the UK were advocating leaving NATO, I'd be out with my flaming torch and pitchfork and heading for Downing Street. Brexit is a whole different thing.
TMay made quite clear in her speech yesterday that Brexit Britain will be globalist, internationalist, a strong ally to America and the EU, a firm member of NATO, and fiercely pro-free-trade. All that will change is that we will restore power to our own parliament, and govern ourselves.
As a liberal Leaver I was chuffed. Thats what I want.
The prime minister, and perhaps most Republicans, might be globalist, internationalist and pro-free-trade but the president is none of these things.
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
With the hit in support that Fillon is taking, oughtn't Macron be favourite in a run-off between the two?
I've already said - I think he wins if he makes the final two !
You know, however doomy and turbulent the 21st century seems, and however many celebs died at a cruelly young age in 2016....
Sweet Fucking Jesus, thank the Lord this is not the 20th century. By this time in the 20th century millions of young men had already died in the trenches, and much much worse was to come.
Indeed. We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us. That generation that created the world we now live in. The world we are dismantling without a care.
"We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us"
Conservative, Unionist, Eurosceptics by and large. We have listened to them, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP want to ignore them
This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit.
Yep. If the UK were advocating leaving NATO, I'd be out with my flaming torch and pitchfork and heading for Downing Street. Brexit is a whole different thing.
TMay made quite clear in her speech yesterday that Brexit Britain will be globalist, internationalist, a strong ally to America and the EU, a firm member of NATO, and fiercely pro-free-trade. All that will change is that we will restore power to our own parliament, and govern ourselves.
As a liberal Leaver I was chuffed. Thats what I want.
I agree. In practice, people who say they're pro free trade tend to change their tune pdq when the full impact of international competition on domestic industries is understood . I expect the NFU to have multiple litters of kittens if we do turn into a buccaneering merchant republic.
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
With the hit in support that Fillon is taking, oughtn't Macron be favourite in a run-off between the two?
In the unlikely event of Fillon dropping out, does Juppe automatically get the party gig?
You know, however doomy and turbulent the 21st century seems, and however many celebs died at a cruelly young age in 2016....
Sweet Fucking Jesus, thank the Lord this is not the 20th century. By this time in the 20th century millions of young men had already died in the trenches, and much much worse was to come.
Indeed. We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us. That generation that created the world we now live in. The world we are dismantling without a care.
"We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us"
Conservative eurosceptics by and large. We have listened to them
Not true. Not a party thing.
Silly to try to make a party political point.
What a party political point that favours a party I don't support?!
Not support in the Farage sense?
'I can hardly believe that the PM is now using the phrases and words that I've been mocked for using for years. Real progress.'
'I can hardly believe Mrs May's words about our place in the world and with America. I've wanted all of these things for years.'
Well I don't vote for them, that's normally a fairly good guide.
You don't vote for them but you need them to reach the political outcomes you support. I daresay the ever decreasing gulf between Cons & UKIP makes that bed not too uncomfortable to lie in.
The political outcome I support has already been reached without me needing to vote for them.
I'm sorry, but I never find videos to be that compelling. I accept that the Russians are nationalist in a way that the West finds both quaint and alarming. I also accept that Russia has re-embraced the Orthodox church with gusto.
I don't see either as drivers for Russian tanks in the Fulda gap (or the Polish equivalent thereof), while fully appreciating the threat to the Baltics.
Napoleon thought considerations of morale were three times as important as physical considerations.
Quaint? This is up-to-the-minute and forward looking.
Perhaps I should have described what was happening in the videos: highly popular state-based nationalism embraced by large numbers of young people, successfully communicated to them in their cultural language. You should see what happens when bands play the national anthem at pop concerts too.
As for the Fulda Gap, how are the US and its allies doing in the fifth domain of warfare? War only had three domains during WW1 and WW2. Now it has five.
If they were going to do an Arab Spring on Putin, they'd have done it in 2012. They tried hard. I don't think Putin even threw any of them out.
You know, however doomy and turbulent the 21st century seems, and however many celebs died at a cruelly young age in 2016....
Sweet Fucking Jesus, thank the Lord this is not the 20th century. By this time in the 20th century millions of young men had already died in the trenches, and much much worse was to come.
Indeed. We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us. That generation that created the world we now live in. The world we are dismantling without a care.
"We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us"
Conservative eurosceptics by and large. We have listened to them
Not true. Not a party thing.
Silly to try to make a party political point.
What a party political point that favours a party I don't support?!
Not support in the Farage sense?
'I can hardly believe that the PM is now using the phrases and words that I've been mocked for using for years. Real progress.'
'I can hardly believe Mrs May's words about our place in the world and with America. I've wanted all of these things for years.'
Well I don't vote for them, that's normally a fairly good guide.
You don't vote for them but you need them to reach the political outcomes you support. I daresay the ever decreasing gulf between Cons & UKIP makes that bed not too uncomfortable to lie in.
The political outcome I support has already been reached without me needing to vote for them. I have voted Labour more than any other party, put your misguided, mistaken words back where they came
FPT, Le May's opposition to the use of the atom bombs was based on his conviction that he could force Japan's surrender by "burning the nation", ie razing its cities to the ground by using incendiary weapons. It certainly wasn't based on any belief that surrender was imminent.
And it should be remembered that the most deadly bombing of the war (and ever) was not Hiroshima and was not Nagasaki but was the March 1945 firebombing of Tokyo. It has been forgotten for political reasons - opposition to atomic weaponary crowding out remembrance of that event - rather than any other.
The Hamburg fire-storm was pretty grim too. 42,000 killed, 37,000 wounded. We created a fifteen hundred foot high tornado of fire. All home-grown, with 787 RAF bombers used.
You know, however doomy and turbulent the 21st century seems, and however many celebs died at a cruelly young age in 2016....
Sweet Fucking Jesus, thank the Lord this is not the 20th century. By this time in the 20th century millions of young men had already died in the trenches, and much much worse was to come.
Indeed. We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us. That generation that created the world we now live in. The world we are dismantling without a care.
"We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us"
Conservative eurosceptics by and large. We have listened to them
Not true. Not a party thing.
Silly to try to make a party political point.
What a party political point that favours a party I don't support?!
Not support in the Farage sense?
'I can hardly believe that the PM is now using the phrases and words that I've been mocked for using for years. Real progress.'
'I can hardly believe Mrs May's words about our place in the world and with America. I've wanted all of these things for years.'
Well I don't vote for them, that's normally a fairly good guide.
You don't vote for them but you need them to reach the political outcomes you support. I daresay the ever decreasing gulf between Cons & UKIP makes that bed not too uncomfortable to lie in.
The political outcome I support has already been reached without me needing to vote for them. I have voted Labour more than any other party, put your misguided, mistaken words back where they came
You need the Tories to succeed. Suck it up.
We've already won!
Will you be celebrating Independence Day with us on June 23rd?
Europe is not particularly religious, the Russians not particularly ideological.
Russia is both. And Russia isn't falling apart like the west is. Morale, including among young men, is far higher in Russia than in the US or in those little countries at the western tip of Eurasia.
Italy GDP 2007 - $1.9trn Russia GDP 2007 - $1.3trn
Italy GDP 2015 - $1.8trn Russia GDP 2015 - $1.3trn
Congratulations Russia! You've managed to slightly narrow the gap on Italy. (And Russia's economy shrank in 2016, so they may have managed to remain roughly level with one of the EU's worst performing economies. Result!)
Europe is not particularly religious, the Russians not particularly ideological.
Russia is both. And Russia isn't falling apart like the west is. Morale, including among young men, is far higher in Russia than in the US or in those little countries at the western tip of Eurasia.
Italy GDP 2007 - $1.9trn Russia GDP 2007 - $1.3trn
Italy GDP 2015 - $1.8trn Russia GDP 2015 - $1.3trn
Congratulations Russia! You've managed to slightly narrow the gap on Italy. (And Russia's economy shrank in 2016, so they may have managed to remain roughly level with one of the EU's worst performing economies. Result!)
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
With the hit in support that Fillon is taking, oughtn't Macron be favourite in a run-off between the two?
The polls have him beating Fillon 52:48, so it would be excitingly close
Neither NATO nor the Russian Federation has the logistical or production tail to support anything more than a brushfire war. Sure, we could sustain a light infantry/insurgency style conflict (a la Ukraine), but that's of a completely different order to the slaughters of the 20th century.
The problem is everybody plans for the brushfire war, then it keeps going and escalates...
Well indeed. JohnM's comment that "Neither NATO nor the Russian Federation has the logistical or production tail to support anything more than a brushfire war" was also true of the UK in 1914 (and, even more so, the USA).
Different times. A Sherman is not a Challenger or Leopard 2. A Mosquito is not a Typhoon. My daughters young man is a Navy artificer working on helicopters. It takes huge amounts of effort to keep them flying.
I'd grant that we might fall back onto something relatively cheap and cheerful. I'd imagine we could quickly switch to (say) something like a 1960s style MBT, or just have a ATGMs mounted on Toyotas. I stick by my point .
FPT, Le May's opposition to the use of the atom bombs was based on his conviction that he could force Japan's surrender by "burning the nation", ie razing its cities to the ground by using incendiary weapons. It certainly wasn't based on any belief that surrender was imminent.
And it should be remembered that the most deadly bombing of the war (and ever) was not Hiroshima and was not Nagasaki but was the March 1945 firebombing of Tokyo. It has been forgotten for political reasons - opposition to atomic weaponary crowding out remembrance of that event - rather than any other.
The Hamburg fire-storm was pretty grim too. 42,000 killed, 37,000 wounded. We created a fifteen hundred foot high tornado of fire. All home-grown, with 787 RAF bombers used.
Quite. And I'm not seeking to diminish that horror but what took place in Tokyo killed more than three times as many. Had it been in Europe (or at least, Western Europe), it'd be a common reference point in the war with regular memorial services and the like.
You know, however doomy and turbulent the 21st century seems, and however many celebs died at a cruelly young age in 2016....
Sweet Fucking Jesus, thank the Lord this is not the 20th century. By this time in the 20th century millions of young men had already died in the trenches, and much much worse was to come.
Indeed. We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us. That generation that created the world we now live in. The world we are dismantling without a care.
"We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us"
Conservative, Unionist, Eurosceptics by and large. We have listened to them, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP want to ignore them
This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit.
Yep. If the UK were advocating leaving NATO, I'd be out with my flaming torch and pitchfork and heading for Downing Street. Brexit is a whole different thing.
TMay made quite clear in her speech yesterday that Brexit Britain will be globalist, internationalist, a strong ally to America and the EU, a firm member of NATO, and fiercely pro-free-trade. All that will change is that we will restore power to our own parliament, and govern ourselves.
As a liberal Leaver I was chuffed. Thats what I want.
The prime minister, and perhaps most Republicans, might be globalist, internationalist and pro-free-trade but the president is none of these things.
Is it not the case that Trump is selectively pro free trade? Pro with countries he respects and who he does not feel are dumping at non-market prices (such as UK) - but anti with those that are (eg China)?
Mr. F, worth noting about six thousand Romans actually managed to break out at Cannae. They were killed or captured (I forget which) the next day.
Mr. Putney, for a time, Mr. Manson offered a paid regular tip service (I received them for a year or two). Not seen/heard much of him in recent years, though.
I keep trying to think of a way of monetising (beyond the obvious) my F1 tips, but I'm not sure I can see it working. I could effectively paywall them, but the open nature of betting is mutually beneficial.
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
With the hit in support that Fillon is taking, oughtn't Macron be favourite in a run-off between the two?
The polls have him beating Fillon 52:48, so it would be excitingly close
If Macron makes the final two, necessarily his support must have risen compared to Fillon/Le Pen, hence he ought to outperform the run off polling.
I'm sorry, but I never find videos to be that compelling. I accept that the Russians are nationalist in a way that the West finds both quaint and alarming. I also accept that Russia has re-embraced the Orthodox church with gusto.
I don't see either as drivers for Russian tanks in the Fulda gap (or the Polish equivalent thereof), while fully appreciating the threat to the Baltics.
Napoleon thought considerations of morale were three times as important as physical considerations.
Quaint? This is up-to-the-minute and forward looking.
Perhaps I should have described what was happening in the videos: highly popular state-based nationalism embraced by large numbers of young people, successfully communicated to them in their cultural language. You should see what happens when bands play the national anthem at pop concerts too.
As for the Fulda Gap, how are the US and its allies doing in the fifth domain of warfare? War only had three domains during WW1 and WW2. Now it has five.
If they were going to do an Arab Spring on Putin, they'd have done it in 2012. They tried hard. I don't think Putin even threw any of them out.
I wouldn't dispute that Putin is genuinely popular, or that Russian nationalism is much healthier than its British or European cousins.
What I would point out is that Russia is suffering from a brain drain of its best-educated, more liberal-minded young people. There are hundreds of thousands of Russians in London and elsewhere in Western Europe, most of whom have no intention of returning.
In addition, the Russian state (and ethnic Russians) have effectively disappeared in much of the North Caucasus. They still tip their cap to Moscow and accept their subsidies, but strictly on the understanding that there is no interference from the centre.
Mr. F, worth noting about six thousand Romans actually managed to break out at Cannae. They were killed or captured (I forget which) the next day.
Mr. Putney, for a time, Mr. Manson offered a paid regular tip service (I received them for a year or two). Not seen/heard much of him in recent years, though.
I keep trying to think of a way of monetising (beyond the obvious) my F1 tips, but I'm not sure I can see it working. I could effectively paywall them, but the open nature of betting is mutually beneficial.
May I humbly and respectfully suggest that considering your F1 tipping record over the last few years that attempting to charge for them is just a tiny bit optimistic?
I'm sorry, but I never find videos to be that compelling. I accept that the Russians are nationalist in a way that the West finds both quaint and alarming. I also accept that Russia has re-embraced the Orthodox church with gusto.
I don't see either as drivers for Russian tanks in the Fulda gap (or the Polish equivalent thereof), while fully appreciating the threat to the Baltics.
Napoleon thought considerations of morale were three times as important as physical considerations.
Quaint? This is up-to-the-minute and forward looking.
Perhaps I should have described what was happening in the videos: highly popular state-based nationalism embraced by large numbers of young people, successfully communicated to them in their cultural language. You should see what happens when bands play the national anthem at pop concerts too.
As for the Fulda Gap, how are the US and its allies doing in the fifth domain of warfare? War only had three domains during WW1 and WW2. Now it has five.
If they were going to do an Arab Spring on Putin, they'd have done it in 2012. They tried hard. I don't think Putin even threw any of them out.
One of the pivots the Five Eyes IC made towards the end of the noughties was based around the fifth domain. On that basis GCHQ had a very good spending round in 2010. We just don't tend to see the results as they're not targeted domestically.
Is your contention that war with Russia is likely?
Europe is not particularly religious, the Russians not particularly ideological.
Russia is both. And Russia isn't falling apart like the west is. Morale, including among young men, is far higher in Russia than in the US or in those little countries at the western tip of Eurasia.
Italy GDP 2007 - $1.9trn Russia GDP 2007 - $1.3trn
Italy GDP 2015 - $1.8trn Russia GDP 2015 - $1.3trn
Congratulations Russia! You've managed to slightly narrow the gap on Italy. (And Russia's economy shrank in 2016, so they may have managed to remain roughly level with one of the EU's worst performing economies. Result!)
And how many divisions has the City of London?
Russia exports oil, gas and coal. That's it. It's a commodity exporter with no real other industry except some weapons.
The EU (and it's principally the EU) sends it money for its oil and gas and coal, and Russia uses that money to buy everything else.
Historically that made the EU very, very dependent on Russia. But things are changing. LNG and the massive discoveries of natural gas in Australia, Qatar, Mozambique, Canada, Tanzania, England, etc., mean that for the first time it's possible that 'turning off the taps' hurts Russia far more than it hurts the EU.
And the rise of renewables, and the fact that tight oil is now viable in the US, and the electrification of the transport network. (And then there are other incredible new things potentially coming through now, such as in-situ gasification of off-shore coal reserves in the UK.)
What is Russia's future in a world where energy is cheap? It has no other industry. No one is investing there because the rule of law is non-existent. And while those young people are incredibly patriotic, the ones with skills on the world stage are at university in Canada or California.
I wasn't thinking of paying for the usual tips, maybe for some sort of extras. Spread betting, maybe some other stuff.
As an aside, I've finished ahead in each of the last three years. Last season was unusual for the dreadful weekend bets being outweighed by one 250/1 winner.
Russia exports oil, gas and coal. That's it. It's a commodity exporter with no real other industry except some weapons.
The EU (and it's principally the EU) sends it money for its oil and gas and coal, and Russia uses that money to buy everything else.
I have the feeling that your analysis of Britain in the 70s would have been equally downbeat and defeatist.
One factor I think you're overlooking is the growing importance of cities in the global economy. Moscow is one of the only cities in Europe that truly has the potential to rival London, as comical as that might seem to you now.
Great right wing virtue signalling from Toby Young in the Spectator:
"We’re about to witness a virtue-signalling tsunami now that awards season is upon us. We got a taste of things to come at the Golden Globes earlier this month, when Meryl Streep attacked Donald Trump for impersonating a man with Parkinson’s — this from the actress who won an Oscar for impersonating an elderly woman with dementia!"
It's not clear whether he is saying here that it was fine for Donald Trump to have mocked a disabled man in front of thousands of cheering people, or wrong for Meryl Streep to have turned in an Oscar-winning performance for her portrayal of Lady Thatcher.
Russia exports oil, gas and coal. That's it. It's a commodity exporter with no real other industry except some weapons.
The EU (and it's principally the EU) sends it money for its oil and gas and coal, and Russia uses that money to buy everything else.
I have the feeling that your analysis of Britain in the 70s would have been equally downbeat and defeatist.
One factor I think you're overlooking is the growing importance of cities in the global economy. Moscow is one of the only cities in Europe that truly has the potential to rival London, as comical as that might seem to you now.
Interesting. (Genuinely - not a put down). Rival London doing what?
Mr. T, I forget the precise figures but I once worked out the death toll equivalent if the Second Punic War happened today (with the UK as Rome). It would've killed off about 200 MPs and four Prime Ministers (give or take), and I think about five million people (maybe six now).
And that was in an age without mechanised warfare. The slaughter at Cannae wasn't replicated* until World War One, in Europe.
*Could make a case for Arausio, although that was self-inflicted as a heavily outnumbered Roman force was also riven with hatred between commanders. Teutoberg was an opportunistic ambush rather than a battle.
I think you may be drawing a veil over some of Rome's victories. Didn't Caesar kill half a million in his campaigns in Gaul (over several years, admittedly). Boudicca's revolt ended in a slaughter of around 80,000 Britons.
Yup! Same business model grief faces much of the middle east too.
The best way to kill off Islamic terrorism may be to invest in battery technology and smart transmission networks!
Couldn't agree more. Starve them of money, and they have nothing except tundra and vodka (Russia) or sand and fanaticism (the Middle East).
And for 'batteries' I include pumped storage. I'm no gut greenie, but I think it would be potentially transformative if the UK built another 4 or 5 Dinorwigs for itself and some high voltage direct current transmission lines to feed them from offshore windfarms or other not yet fully viable renewable resources.
Mr. Herdson, I wasn't considering civilian casualties.
If you count those, then Caesar killed about half a million (while since I read Dodge's biography so I'd have to check) of Germanic tribesmen [who were asking for a peace treaty at the time].
Then there's Alexander's pacification of the rebelling satrapies of Sogdiana and Bactria.
Europe is not particularly religious, the Russians not particularly ideological.
Russia is both. And Russia isn't falling apart like the west is. Morale, including among young men, is far higher in Russia than in the US or in those little countries at the western tip of Eurasia.
Italy GDP 2007 - $1.9trn Russia GDP 2007 - $1.3trn
Italy GDP 2015 - $1.8trn Russia GDP 2015 - $1.3trn
Congratulations Russia! You've managed to slightly narrow the gap on Italy. (And Russia's economy shrank in 2016, so they may have managed to remain roughly level with one of the EU's worst performing economies. Result!)
And how many divisions has the City of London?
It won most of the wars from the 18th century through to 1914.
Great right wing virtue signalling from Toby Young in the Spectator:
"We’re about to witness a virtue-signalling tsunami now that awards season is upon us. We got a taste of things to come at the Golden Globes earlier this month, when Meryl Streep attacked Donald Trump for impersonating a man with Parkinson’s — this from the actress who won an Oscar for impersonating an elderly woman with dementia!"
It's not clear whether he is saying here that it was fine for Donald Trump to have mocked a disabled man in front of thousands of cheering people, or wrong for Meryl Streep to have turned in an Oscar-winning performance for her portrayal of Lady Thatcher.
Can anyone help?
You'd think that a (sic) journalist might have checked on what Kovaleskiat's disability actually is (arthrogryposis, not Parkinsons). Perhaps they all look the same to our Tobes.
Yup! Same business model grief faces much of the middle east too.
The best way to kill off Islamic terrorism may be to invest in battery technology and smart transmission networks!
Couldn't agree more. Starve them of money, and they have nothing except tundra and vodka (Russia) or sand and fanaticism (the Middle East).
And for 'batteries' I include pumped storage. I'm no gut greenie, but I think it would be potentially transformative if the UK built another 4 or 5 Dinorwigs for itself and some high voltage direct current transmission lines to feed them from offshore windfarms or other not yet fully viable renewable resources.
Russia exports oil, gas and coal. That's it. It's a commodity exporter with no real other industry except some weapons.
The EU (and it's principally the EU) sends it money for its oil and gas and coal, and Russia uses that money to buy everything else.
I have the feeling that your analysis of Britain in the 70s would have been equally downbeat and defeatist.
One factor I think you're overlooking is the growing importance of cities in the global economy. Moscow is one of the only cities in Europe that truly has the potential to rival London, as comical as that might seem to you now.
Interesting. (Genuinely - not a put down). Rival London doing what?
A bit of everything. Fintech and other technologies, creative industries, finance and professional services. There are obvious barriers but a huge amount of potential that could be unleashed in the right circumstances.
If you haven't been recently it continues to transform at a rate of knots.
Mr. T, I forget the precise figures but I once worked out the death toll equivalent if the Second Punic War happened today (with the UK as Rome). It would've killed off about 200 MPs and four Prime Ministers (give or take), and I think about five million people (maybe six now).
And that was in an age without mechanised warfare. The slaughter at Cannae wasn't replicated* until World War One, in Europe.
*Could make a case for Arausio, although that was self-inflicted as a heavily outnumbered Roman force was also riven with hatred between commanders. Teutoberg was an opportunistic ambush rather than a battle.
Timur the Lame killed 5% of the world's population in his 14th century capers. So the equivalent of 350 million in today's money.
Europe is not particularly religious, the Russians not particularly ideological.
Russia is both. And Russia isn't falling apart like the west is. Morale, including among young men, is far higher in Russia than in the US or in those little countries at the western tip of Eurasia.
Italy GDP 2007 - $1.9trn Russia GDP 2007 - $1.3trn
Italy GDP 2015 - $1.8trn Russia GDP 2015 - $1.3trn
Congratulations Russia! You've managed to slightly narrow the gap on Italy. (And Russia's economy shrank in 2016, so they may have managed to remain roughly level with one of the EU's worst performing economies. Result!)
And how many divisions has the City of London?
What is Russia's future in a world where energy is cheap? It has no other industry. No one is investing there because the rule of law is non-existent.
Russia appears to have world leading security and intelligence services. Perhaps it can bid against the UK when we try to sign a deal with the EU.
A bit of everything. Fintech and other technologies, creative industries, finance and professional services. There are obvious barriers but a huge amount of potential that could be unleashed in the right circumstances.
If you haven't been recently it continues to transform at a rate of knots.
Yes, and according to Putin it is already the world leader in one service industry.
Yup! Same business model grief faces much of the middle east too.
The best way to kill off Islamic terrorism may be to invest in battery technology and smart transmission networks!
Couldn't agree more. Starve them of money, and they have nothing except tundra and vodka (Russia) or sand and fanaticism (the Middle East).
The Russian outcome works ok, they drink themselves to death. The Middle East....they kill each other by the millions. If the rest of the world doesn't want to pick up some of that violence at the edges, we may need a fairly big wall (topical, I guess...).
Russia exports oil, gas and coal. That's it. It's a commodity exporter with no real other industry except some weapons.
The EU (and it's principally the EU) sends it money for its oil and gas and coal, and Russia uses that money to buy everything else.
I have the feeling that your analysis of Britain in the 70s would have been equally downbeat and defeatist.
One factor I think you're overlooking is the growing importance of cities in the global economy. Moscow is one of the only cities in Europe that truly has the potential to rival London, as comical as that might seem to you now.
Interesting. (Genuinely - not a put down). Rival London doing what?
A bit of everything. Fintech and other technologies, creative industries, finance and professional services. There are obvious barriers but a huge amount of potential that could be unleashed in the right circumstances.
If you haven't been recently it continues to transform at a rate of knots.
Unfortunately, one of the "right circumstances" has to be the rule of law. That ain't happening any time soon.
Russia exports oil, gas and coal. That's it. It's a commodity exporter with no real other industry except some weapons.
The EU (and it's principally the EU) sends it money for its oil and gas and coal, and Russia uses that money to buy everything else.
I have the feeling that your analysis of Britain in the 70s would have been equally downbeat and defeatist.
One factor I think you're overlooking is the growing importance of cities in the global economy. Moscow is one of the only cities in Europe that truly has the potential to rival London, as comical as that might seem to you now.
Interesting. (Genuinely - not a put down). Rival London doing what?
A bit of everything. Fintech and other technologies, creative industries, finance and professional services. There are obvious barriers but a huge amount of potential that could be unleashed in the right circumstances.
If you haven't been recently it continues to transform at a rate of knots.
I've been twice: once in 2006 and once in 2011. It seemed quite a bit more run down the second time after what was obviously a great deal of building an investment earlier.
But until Russia has a reliably independent system of law and law enforcement, supports freedom of speech and association, and has the culture of the free market it will never be a global centre in any of the things you suggest.
Mr. T, I forget the precise figures but I once worked out the death toll equivalent if the Second Punic War happened today (with the UK as Rome). It would've killed off about 200 MPs and four Prime Ministers (give or take), and I think about five million people (maybe six now).
And that was in an age without mechanised warfare. The slaughter at Cannae wasn't replicated* until World War One, in Europe.
*Could make a case for Arausio, although that was self-inflicted as a heavily outnumbered Roman force was also riven with hatred between commanders. Teutoberg was an opportunistic ambush rather than a battle.
Timur the Lame killed 5% of the world's population in his 14th century capers. So the equivalent of 350 million in today's money.
Mr. F, worth noting about six thousand Romans actually managed to break out at Cannae. They were killed or captured (I forget which) the next day.
Mr. Putney, for a time, Mr. Manson offered a paid regular tip service (I received them for a year or two). Not seen/heard much of him in recent years, though.
I keep trying to think of a way of monetising (beyond the obvious) my F1 tips, but I'm not sure I can see it working. I could effectively paywall them, but the open nature of betting is mutually beneficial.
I had no idea that HenryG had ever offered a subscription tennis tipping service, which is all the more interesting since I once wrote to him privately, suggesting precisely such an idea. When at the top of his game, he was very good indeed. His great strength was in spotting value in unusual tennis markets, which might otherwise have beeen overlooked. I do hope we shall hear more from him. His political threads on the internal machinations of the Labour Party are invariably well informed and if I might say so rather more readable than certain other PB.com contributors from his side of the political divide. Although I engage in some F1 betting myself, I find it very difficult to identify value and apart from the odd *cough* 250/1 winner, I have not on the whole found this profitable - it seems to me that the bookies aren't sufficiently competitive, which certainly cannot be said of Premier League football betting for example, where the overround on the result is scarcely ever more than 2% and quite often there is actually an underround of between 0%-2% . The attraction for me in political betting is that it is often more of an intellectual battle against the bookie, whereby on a site like like PB.com there are certain individuals, notably OGH, who are faster on their feet and able to outwit the bookies (Shadsy excepted in most instances).
Mr. Herdson, I wasn't considering civilian casualties.
If you count those, then Caesar killed about half a million (while since I read Dodge's biography so I'd have to check) of Germanic tribesmen [who were asking for a peace treaty at the time].
Then there's Alexander's pacification of the rebelling satrapies of Sogdiana and Bactria.
Tamerlane? Genghis Khan? Both were responsible for the deaths of many millions.
Russia exports oil, gas and coal. That's it. It's a commodity exporter with no real other industry except some weapons.
The EU (and it's principally the EU) sends it money for its oil and gas and coal, and Russia uses that money to buy everything else.
I have the feeling that your analysis of Britain in the 70s would have been equally downbeat and defeatist.
One factor I think you're overlooking is the growing importance of cities in the global economy. Moscow is one of the only cities in Europe that truly has the potential to rival London, as comical as that might seem to you now.
Interesting. (Genuinely - not a put down). Rival London doing what?
A bit of everything. Fintech and other technologies, creative industries, finance and professional services. There are obvious barriers but a huge amount of potential that could be unleashed in the right circumstances.
If you haven't been recently it continues to transform at a rate of knots.
I agree with this. It's insane to write Russia off just because it produces little but oil and gas. You could make the same bogus allegation against Australia, an advanced and very successful economy
Russia is a great and ancient nation, with huge natural and cultural resources and lots of clever people. It is almost a civilisation unto itself. It has no stifling Islam-style religion to hold it back, nor communism any more.
It's time will come.
Only when investors have confidence in its judicial system, That is the key. Until then, the majority of business done in Russia will be speculative and high-risk.
Mr. T, I forget the precise figures but I once worked out the death toll equivalent if the Second Punic War happened today (with the UK as Rome). It would've killed off about 200 MPs and four Prime Ministers (give or take), and I think about five million people (maybe six now).
And that was in an age without mechanised warfare. The slaughter at Cannae wasn't replicated* until World War One, in Europe.
*Could make a case for Arausio, although that was self-inflicted as a heavily outnumbered Roman force was also riven with hatred between commanders. Teutoberg was an opportunistic ambush rather than a battle.
Timur the Lame killed 5% of the world's population in his 14th century capers. So the equivalent of 350 million in today's money.
How does that compare with his predecessors, Genghis or Ogodai?
Russia exports oil, gas and coal. That's it. It's a commodity exporter with no real other industry except some weapons.
The EU (and it's principally the EU) sends it money for its oil and gas and coal, and Russia uses that money to buy everything else.
I have the feeling that your analysis of Britain in the 70s would have been equally downbeat and defeatist.
One factor I think you're overlooking is the growing importance of cities in the global economy. Moscow is one of the only cities in Europe that truly has the potential to rival London, as comical as that might seem to you now.
Interesting. (Genuinely - not a put down). Rival London doing what?
A bit of everything. Fintech and other technologies, creative industries, finance and professional services. There are obvious barriers but a huge amount of potential that could be unleashed in the right circumstances.
If you haven't been recently it continues to transform at a rate of knots.
It's time will come.
Agree premature to write them off. But I'd say more that 'It's time may come'. Have you read The Wealth and Poverty of Nations by David Landes? A really good summary of how it is culture more than resources that drives a nation's ability to succeed. (Witness Japan). Russia has all the material foundatoins but also a long culture of despotism and backwardness. A very low trust society. They'll only break free when they change. Alot.
Russia exports oil, gas and coal. That's it. It's a commodity exporter with no real other industry except some weapons.
The EU (and it's principally the EU) sends it money for its oil and gas and coal, and Russia uses that money to buy everything else.
I have the feeling that your analysis of Britain in the 70s would have been equally downbeat and defeatist.
One factor I think you're overlooking is the growing importance of cities in the global economy. Moscow is one of the only cities in Europe that truly has the potential to rival London, as comical as that might seem to you now.
Absent confidence in the long term rule of law, and sanctity of contracts, that's unlikely, I think.
The Trump White House is the most anti-British we have seen for decades in terms of the policies it espouses. Swivel-eyed, anti-European Atlanticists can go all rheumy eyed at the sight of a Churchill bust in the Oval Office, but what Trump wants to do will be extremely damaging to the UK's interests. There were clear signs in Theresa May's speech last night that she gets this. Just keep Liam Fox and Boris Johnson away from any trade talks. They'd sign up for anything.
Sidenote on Tamerlane (aka Timur the Lame): he saved Byzantium. Bayezid had summoned a huge Turkish army to take the city around the turn of 1399/1400, when the Mongols(ish) under Tamerlane rolled up. A massive battle ensued, Tamerlane won (as was his habit) and Bayezid spent the rest of his life as a foot stool, reportedly going insane. Byzantium survived another fifty years or so before the inevitable happened.
Mr. Putney, it can be tricky in F1, especially as there's been so much Mercedes dominance recently. 2012 was a very good year (early on) for varying winners both on-track and in betting terms.
I'm sorry, but I never find videos to be that compelling. I accept that the Russians are nationalist in a way that the West finds both quaint and alarming. I also accept that Russia has re-embraced the Orthodox church with gusto.
I don't see either as drivers for Russian tanks in the Fulda gap (or the Polish equivalent thereof), while fully appreciating the threat to the Baltics.
Napoleon thought considerations of morale were three times as important as physical considerations.
Quaint? This is up-to-the-minute and forward looking.
Perhaps I should have described what was happening in the videos: highly popular state-based nationalism embraced by large numbers of young people, successfully communicated to them in their cultural language. You should see what happens when bands play the national anthem at pop concerts too.
As for the Fulda Gap, how are the US and its allies doing in the fifth domain of warfare? War only had three domains during WW1 and WW2. Now it has five.
If they were going to do an Arab Spring on Putin, they'd have done it in 2012. They tried hard. I don't think Putin even threw any of them out.
I wouldn't dispute that Putin is genuinely popular, or that Russian nationalism is much healthier than its British or European cousins.
What I would point out is that Russia is suffering from a brain drain of its best-educated, more liberal-minded young people. There are hundreds of thousands of Russians in London and elsewhere in Western Europe, most of whom have no intention of returning.
In addition, the Russian state (and ethnic Russians) have effectively disappeared in much of the North Caucasus. They still tip their cap to Moscow and accept their subsidies, but strictly on the understanding that there is no interference from the centre.
It is a powerful but brittle state.
It is noticeable that the ethnicity of fringe areas is changing. Russias population has grown in recent years, particularly due to migration of ethnic Russians from the Ukraine, Caucuses and 'stans.
This also makes these countries more ethnically homogenous too. Russia will be secure in its own borders but not expanding them.
Travel and internet will also tend to soften Russian nationalism, a return to the czarist experience of autocracy and kleptocracy at home and freedom abroad, a new Grand Tour for the new aristocracy.
Russia is a great and ancient nation, with huge natural and cultural resources and lots of clever people. It is almost a civilisation unto itself. It has no stifling Islam-style religion to hold it back, nor communism any more.
I lived in Russia for 9 years and recognise almost nothing in this statement. Something Russian friends have often said to me is that there is no such thing as Russia. There's the Federation, Moscow, SPb, the southern republics, the Far East, Sibera, etc. There isn't one homogenous Russian national identity as people na zapadye often suppose. It's also wracked by social problems (alcohol, drugs, demographics, health, corruption) which Putin (who is really only the goblinoid henchman of the 110 people who own 35% of the Russian economy) is doing less than nothing about.
I'll be amazed if it survives in anything like its current form for more than the next fifty years.
Business in Russia is quite possible, however there are some extra costs say compared to the EU - (more)letters of credit, banking charges; and agent fees. Nevertheless if you're not considering doing business there then you're missing out. Your bank and a Russian agent will take some of the spoils - but its definitely worthwhile.
Does not look like Juppe will replace Fillon if he withdraws. Could change his mind of course!
On Friday, January 27, the mayor of Bordeaux, Alain Juppé (Les Républicains), excluded "clearly and definitively" from being a recourse in the event of a withdrawal of candidate of the right to the presidential, Francois Fillon, who Beat him during the primary.
"The primary has taken place and the voters have spoken"
Alain Juppé justified his decision by stating that "the primary has taken place and that the voters have spoken". But he stressed that "at the moment T, the question does not arise, it is François Fillon our candidate".
Does not look like Juppe will replace Fillon if he withdraws. Could change his mind of course!
On Friday, January 27, the mayor of Bordeaux, Alain Juppé (Les Républicains), excluded "clearly and definitively" from being a recourse in the event of a withdrawal of candidate of the right to the presidential, Francois Fillon, who Beat him during the primary.
"The primary has taken place and the voters have spoken"
Alain Juppé justified his decision by stating that "the primary has taken place and that the voters have spoken". But he stressed that "at the moment T, the question does not arise, it is François Fillon our candidate".
Travel and internet will also tend to soften Russian nationalism, a return to the czarist experience of autocracy and kleptocracy at home and freedom abroad, a new Grand Tour for the new aristocracy.
This is also another factor in Russia's favour. The next generation of leaders are some of the most worldly and least parochial people you could wish to come across.
I would put it as a very low probability at the moment, but if Putin can 'fix' the relationship with the West and obtain in his terms a victory over NATO, it wouldn't surprise me if he chose to stand down.
I'm still looking at that bloody colourised Holocaust photo
Jesus.
If I get the time today, I'll be watching Denial at the cinema, I suspect my brain will be constantly reminding me of that photo whilst I watch that film.
Russia is a great and ancient nation, with huge natural and cultural resources and lots of clever people. It is almost a civilisation unto itself. It has no stifling Islam-style religion to hold it back, nor communism any more.
I lived in Russia for 9 years and recognise almost nothing in this statement. Something Russian friends have often said to me is that there is no such thing as Russia. There's the Federation, Moscow, SPb, the southern republics, the Far East, Sibera, etc. There isn't one homogenous Russian national identity as people na zapadye often suppose. It's also wracked by social problems (alcohol, drugs, demographics, health, corruption) which Putin (who is really only the goblinoid henchman of the 110 people who own 35% of the Russian economy) is doing less than nothing about.
I'll be amazed if it survives in anything like its current form for more than the next fifty years.
Anyone with real knowledge of Russia and Russians will find your post unbelievable from " I lived ..... " to " ..... the next fifty years. "
Comments
'I can hardly believe that the PM is now using the phrases and words that I've been mocked for using for years. Real progress.'
'I can hardly believe Mrs May's words about our place in the world and with America. I've wanted all of these things for years.'
Fillon/Le Pen is rightfully favourite, Macron/Le Pen ought to be second & Macron/Fillon third.
The liquidity between the two dogs isn't so great.
It's a decent puzzle but laying Le Pen is ultimately correct I think
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deUzHnzLJDI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ul_qm3Ym8-k
I don't see either as drivers for Russian tanks in the Fulda gap (or the Polish equivalent thereof), while fully appreciating the threat to the Baltics.
Quaint? This is up-to-the-minute and forward looking.
Perhaps I should have described what was happening in the videos: highly popular state-based nationalism embraced by large numbers of young people, successfully communicated to them in their cultural language. You should see what happens when bands play the national anthem at pop concerts too.
As for the Fulda Gap, how are the US and its allies doing in the fifth domain of warfare? War only had three domains during WW1 and WW2. Now it has five.
If they were going to do an Arab Spring on Putin, they'd have done it in 2012. They tried hard. I don't think Putin even threw any of them out.
Suck it up.
Will you be celebrating Independence Day with us on June 23rd?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-calls-june-23-8271647
Italy GDP 2007 - $1.9trn
Russia GDP 2007 - $1.3trn
Italy GDP 2015 - $1.8trn
Russia GDP 2015 - $1.3trn
Congratulations Russia! You've managed to slightly narrow the gap on Italy. (And Russia's economy shrank in 2016, so they may have managed to remain roughly level with one of the EU's worst performing economies. Result!)
I'd grant that we might fall back onto something relatively cheap and cheerful. I'd imagine we could quickly switch to (say) something like a 1960s style MBT, or just have a ATGMs mounted on Toyotas. I stick by my point
Mr. Putney, for a time, Mr. Manson offered a paid regular tip service (I received them for a year or two). Not seen/heard much of him in recent years, though.
I keep trying to think of a way of monetising (beyond the obvious) my F1 tips, but I'm not sure I can see it working. I could effectively paywall them, but the open nature of betting is mutually beneficial.
What I would point out is that Russia is suffering from a brain drain of its best-educated, more liberal-minded young people. There are hundreds of thousands of Russians in London and elsewhere in Western Europe,
most of whom have no intention of returning.
In addition, the Russian state (and ethnic Russians) have effectively disappeared in much of the North Caucasus. They still tip their cap to Moscow and accept their subsidies, but strictly on the understanding that there is no interference from the centre.
It is a powerful but brittle state.
Is your contention that war with Russia is likely?
The EU (and it's principally the EU) sends it money for its oil and gas and coal, and Russia uses that money to buy everything else.
Historically that made the EU very, very dependent on Russia. But things are changing. LNG and the massive discoveries of natural gas in Australia, Qatar, Mozambique, Canada, Tanzania, England, etc., mean that for the first time it's possible that 'turning off the taps' hurts Russia far more than it hurts the EU.
And the rise of renewables, and the fact that tight oil is now viable in the US, and the electrification of the transport network. (And then there are other incredible new things potentially coming through now, such as in-situ gasification of off-shore coal reserves in the UK.)
What is Russia's future in a world where energy is cheap? It has no other industry. No one is investing there because the rule of law is non-existent. And while those young people are incredibly patriotic, the ones with skills on the world stage are at university in Canada or California.
If that helps
Yup! Same business model grief faces much of the middle east too.
The best way to kill off Islamic terrorism may be to invest in battery technology and smart transmission networks!
I wasn't thinking of paying for the usual tips, maybe for some sort of extras. Spread betting, maybe some other stuff.
As an aside, I've finished ahead in each of the last three years. Last season was unusual for the dreadful weekend bets being outweighed by one 250/1 winner.
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/824940722373664768
One factor I think you're overlooking is the growing importance of cities in the global economy. Moscow is one of the only cities in Europe that truly has the potential to rival London, as comical as that might seem to you now.
"We’re about to witness a virtue-signalling tsunami now that awards season is upon us. We got a taste of things to come at the Golden Globes earlier this month, when Meryl Streep attacked Donald Trump for impersonating a man with Parkinson’s — this from the actress who won an Oscar for impersonating an elderly woman with dementia!"
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/would-i-still-hate-pontificating-actors-if-they-agreed-with-me/
It's not clear whether he is saying here that it was fine for Donald Trump to have mocked a disabled man in front of thousands of cheering people, or wrong for Meryl Streep to have turned in an Oscar-winning performance for her portrayal of Lady Thatcher.
Can anyone help?
If you count those, then Caesar killed about half a million (while since I read Dodge's biography so I'd have to check) of Germanic tribesmen [who were asking for a peace treaty at the time].
Then there's Alexander's pacification of the rebelling satrapies of Sogdiana and Bactria.
Perhaps they all look the same to our Tobes.
http://euanmearns.com/the-coire-glas-pumped-storage-scheme-a-massive-but-puny-beast/
From @LordAshcroft: What do the voters expect from @realDonaldTrump ? My new poll of 10,000 Americans reveals all. https://t.co/o6DPa4v5KT
If you haven't been recently it continues to transform at a rate of knots.
But until Russia has a reliably independent system of law and law enforcement, supports freedom of speech and association, and has the culture of the free market it will never be a global centre in any of the things you suggest.
When at the top of his game, he was very good indeed. His great strength was in spotting value in unusual tennis markets, which might otherwise have beeen overlooked. I do hope we shall hear more from him. His political threads on the internal machinations of the Labour Party are invariably well informed and if I might say so rather more readable than certain other PB.com contributors from his side of the political divide.
Although I engage in some F1 betting myself, I find it very difficult to identify value and apart from the odd *cough* 250/1 winner, I have not on the whole found this profitable - it seems to me that the bookies aren't sufficiently competitive, which certainly cannot be said of Premier League football betting for example, where the overround on the result is scarcely ever more than 2% and quite often there is actually an underround of between 0%-2% .
The attraction for me in political betting is that it is often more of an intellectual battle against the bookie, whereby on a site like like PB.com there are certain individuals, notably OGH, who are faster on their feet and able to outwit the bookies (Shadsy excepted in most instances).
Have you read The Wealth and Poverty of Nations by David Landes? A really good summary of how it is culture more than resources that drives a nation's ability to succeed. (Witness Japan). Russia has all the material foundatoins but also a long culture of despotism and backwardness. A very low trust society. They'll only break free when they change. Alot.
Sidenote on Tamerlane (aka Timur the Lame): he saved Byzantium. Bayezid had summoned a huge Turkish army to take the city around the turn of 1399/1400, when the Mongols(ish) under Tamerlane rolled up. A massive battle ensued, Tamerlane won (as was his habit) and Bayezid spent the rest of his life as a foot stool, reportedly going insane. Byzantium survived another fifty years or so before the inevitable happened.
Mr. Putney, it can be tricky in F1, especially as there's been so much Mercedes dominance recently. 2012 was a very good year (early on) for varying winners both on-track and in betting terms.
This also makes these countries more ethnically homogenous too. Russia will be secure in its own borders but not expanding them.
Travel and internet will also tend to soften Russian nationalism, a return to the czarist experience of autocracy and kleptocracy at home and freedom abroad, a new Grand Tour for the new aristocracy.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labours-harriet-harman-claims-sleazy-9703290
I'll be amazed if it survives in anything like its current form for more than the next fifty years.
Nevertheless if you're not considering doing business there then you're missing out. Your bank and a Russian agent will take some of the spoils - but its definitely worthwhile.
On Friday, January 27, the mayor of Bordeaux, Alain Juppé (Les Républicains), excluded "clearly and definitively" from being a recourse in the event of a withdrawal of candidate of the right to the presidential, Francois Fillon, who Beat him during the primary.
"The primary has taken place and the voters have spoken"
Alain Juppé justified his decision by stating that "the primary has taken place and that the voters have spoken". But he stressed that "at the moment T, the question does not arise, it is François Fillon our candidate".
En savoir plus sur http://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211738617490-si-francois-fillon-se-retire-alain-juppe-nira-pas-2060684.php#zgQeCXSId2v2ddD5.99
History
January 27th, 1967, Apollo 1 tragedy. https://t.co/bKmMI7UYyZ
https://youtu.be/19A53SyAUak
Following Donald Trump's torture remarks we found that 27% of Brits think torture should be allowed https://t.co/2oOlkgPft4 https://t.co/W9z2TdKcnL
Who was the UK's shortest serving PM, Neville Chamberlain?
I would put it as a very low probability at the moment, but if Putin can 'fix' the relationship with the West and obtain in his terms a victory over NATO, it wouldn't surprise me if he chose to stand down.
http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/british-prime-ministers-serving-the-shortest-time-in-office.html
Your posts are unfailingly farcical.
I'm having epic political brainfarts todays
Ta also Messrs Grabcoque and and Nigel