Cloyd Rivers 2 of the flag burners stopped by the FedEx guy were arrested for violatin' Iowa City's burn ordinance. Play stupid games. Win stupid prizes. https://t.co/qP3FtlFpJi
Farage dragged very few extra "don't know" votes over the Leave line. He undoubtedly put off many. He was not a politician capable of generating any momentum for Leave. His tin-eared appearance by THAT poster during the campaign amply demonstrates that.
The single politician who can take any credit going for winning the Referendum for Leave is Boris. With an honourable mention to David Cameron, for a) calling it and then b) making sure he pissed off lots of potential soft Remainers with his fantastically ill-judged "little Englanders" and Project Fear spiel.
Asking for a friend who is writing a thread for PB.
Who was the UK's shortest serving PM, Neville Chamberlain?
Of the modern era surely Douglas-Home?
Campbell-Bannerman in the 20thC?
C-B was PM for over 2 years. ADH, just the one. But no, the actual answer (post-1900) is Bonar Law, the forgotten prime minister as (I think), Lloyd George called him
Short of Trump being impeached there is nothing Republicans in Congress can do about it if they don't like him, constitutionally he is POTUS for at least 4 years unless he decide a to resign. Given his victory in the 2016 primaries it is also unlikely he will fail to win the GOP nomination again in 2020 now he is POTUS
Russia exports oil, gas and coal. That's it. It's a commodity exporter with no real other industry except some weapons.
The EU (and it's principally the EU) sends it money for its oil and gas and coal, and Russia uses that money to buy everything else.
I have the feeling that your analysis of Britain in the 70s would have been equally downbeat and defeatist.
One factor I think you're overlooking is the growing importance of cities in the global economy. Moscow is one of the only cities in Europe that truly has the potential to rival London, as comical as that might seem to you now.
Interesting. (Genuinely - not a put down). Rival London doing what?
A bit of everything. Fintech and other technologies, creative industries, finance and professional services. There are obvious barriers but a huge amount of potential that could be unleashed in the right circumstances.
If you haven't been recently it continues to transform at a rate of knots.
I agree with this. It's insane to write Russia off just because it produces little but oil and gas. You could make the same bogus allegation against Australia, an advanced and very successful economy
Russia is a great and ancient nation, with huge natural and cultural resources and lots of clever people. It is almost a civilisation unto itself. It has no stifling Islam-style religion to hold it back, nor communism any more.
It's time will come.
Only when investors have confidence in its judicial system, That is the key. Until then, the majority of business done in Russia will be speculative and high-risk.
Travel and internet will also tend to soften Russian nationalism, a return to the czarist experience of autocracy and kleptocracy at home and freedom abroad, a new Grand Tour for the new aristocracy.
This is also another factor in Russia's favour. The next generation of leaders are some of the most worldly and least parochial people you could wish to come across.
I would put it as a very low probability at the moment, but if Putin can 'fix' the relationship with the West and obtain in his terms a victory over NATO, it wouldn't surprise me if he chose to stand down.
There is also a big divide between Moscow, St Petersburg and provincial Russia in terms of political and social development. Russia is a great country by reason of its history and geography, like us in being one of the bookends of Europe. Both Russia and ourselves are semi-detached from Continental Europe, and endlessly vacillating over whether we really belong.
Best eyeball quote ever ? "Once I got in the ambulance they gave me a little pain medicine and some saline drops in my eye and I felt it slide back into place, which is also a really strange feeling... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38767179
Best eyeball quote ever ? "Once I got in the ambulance they gave me a little pain medicine and some saline drops in my eye and I felt it slide back into place, which is also a really strange feeling... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38767179
You know, however doomy and turbulent the 21st century seems, and however many celebs died at a cruelly young age in 2016....
Sweet Fucking Jesus, thank the Lord this is not the 20th century. By this time in the 20th century millions of young men had already died in the trenches, and much much worse was to come.
Indeed. We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us. That generation that created the world we now live in. The world we are dismantling without a care.
"We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us"
Conservative, Unionist, Eurosceptics by and large. We have listened to them, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP want to ignore them
This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit.
Yep. If the UK were advocating leaving NATO, I'd be out with my flaming torch and pitchfork and heading for Downing Street. Brexit is a whole different thing.
TMay made quite clear in her speech yesterday that Brexit Britain will be globalist, internationalist, a strong ally to America and the EU, a firm member of NATO, and fiercely pro-free-trade. All that will change is that we will restore power to our own parliament, and govern ourselves.
As a liberal Leaver I was chuffed. Thats what I want.
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
Macron has now been hit by his own scandal using government funds to pay for very expensive dinners and that was an approval poll, which did not really change much from December, not a voting change poll
I'm still looking at that bloody colourised Holocaust photo
Jesus.
It is so f***ing difficult to grasp (when it should be very easy) that WW 1 and 2 were not fought in a monochrome world. Hopefully photoshoppy algorithms for colorisation exist and will continue to improve.
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
With the hit in support that Fillon is taking, oughtn't Macron be favourite in a run-off between the two?
There will be no run off between the two, every poll now has Le Pen leading round one
Asking for a friend who is writing a thread for PB.
Who was the UK's shortest serving PM, Neville Chamberlain?
Of the modern era surely Douglas-Home?
Campbell-Bannerman in the 20thC?
C-B was PM for over 2 years. ADH, just the one. But no, the actual answer (post-1900) is Bonar Law, the forgotten prime minister as (I think), Lloyd George called him
His autobiography is "the unknown prime minister"!
I'm still looking at that bloody colourised Holocaust photo
Jesus.
If I get the time today, I'll be watching Denial at the cinema, I suspect my brain will be constantly reminding me of that photo whilst I watch that film.
I can't work out why the photo mesmerises me, yet upsets me so much. Is it because I have daughters near her age? Yes, but there's more to it.
Something in her fragile face, the inexpressible sense of impending suffering, the knowledge of what is about to happen to her, the simple fact this pretty girl on the cusp of womanhood is in Auschwitz, for no reason other than being alive, so the Nazis took her to have her killed.
It's probably the single most distressing image from the Holocaust, that I have ever seen. And it's just a face.
It is essential to put an individual face on the mass slaughter. The numbers are too incredible to comprehend.
A few minutes before this photo she was beaten around the face, so she knew what to do. Hence the cuts and bruises. She was gassed or killed with an injection, a month later
FPT Good to see some previous critics coming round to Mrs May - of course we've still got the Trump press conference to go - and she's on a jolly sticky wicket, but I for one have been sleeping more soundly since she took office.
On her deliberative style, as she is reported to have remarked "I don't mind if people think I'm thick....for a while"
I'm still looking at that bloody colourised Holocaust photo
Jesus.
For all that we say 'we will remember', the reality is that we don't really want to. We remember the event, the organisation, the clinical cruelty, the artefacts of bureaucracy, the Arbeit Macht Frei sign and the chimneys but remember the six million dead? Sure - that's a statistic. Six million lives of real people who lived, loved, feared, hoped, sang, worked and so on? No, just too horrible.
Genocide is nearly always unpopular after the event; preventing it beforehand - when it had genuine support, as such things must by definition have, even if out of only falsely-grounded mass hysteria - another matter. Remembering means nothing if not applied to the future, and future applications will be, as they always are, against marginalised and unpopular groups which are strong enough to constitute a perceived threat, weak enough to be taken on, and 'other' enough to be identifiably alien. Siding with such groups, which are rarely targeted without some reason that can be sold in a poster slogan or a two-second soundbite, takes bravery.
FPT Good to see some previous critics coming round to Mrs May - of course we've still got the Trump press conference to go - and she's on a jolly sticky wicket, but I for one have been sleeping more soundly since she took office.
On her deliberative style, as she is reported to have remarked "I don't mind if people think I'm thick....for a while"
Give it a day or two and we will have confirmation that all the bending over and genuflection was in vain.
Asking for a friend who is writing a thread for PB.
Who was the UK's shortest serving PM, Neville Chamberlain?
Of the modern era surely Douglas-Home?
Campbell-Bannerman in the 20thC?
C-B was PM for over 2 years. ADH, just the one. But no, the actual answer (post-1900) is Bonar Law, the forgotten prime minister as (I think), Lloyd George called him
His autobiography is "the unknown prime minister"!
No, that's the title of Robert Blake's biography of him. I don't believe Law wrote an autobiography; he was dying of cancer which was why he resigned as PM.
Trump is not just 70 1/2, the age at which one becomes all too aware of one’s mortality (I am 72). He is border-line obese, based on his claimed height and weight: 6-foot-3 and 236 pounds http://www.ibtimes.com/donald-trump-obese-republican-candidate-overweight-according-his-body-mass-index-2416617 - hence the generously cut jackets which he never takes off so that we never see his figure. And he has never, despite promises repeatedly broken, published his full medical history.
So it’s quite possible that his physical health is not as good as it appears to be. In any event, he is at higher risk of diabetes, etc., etc. so he is very unlikely to be fit to serve 8 years.
Trump is not just 70 1/2, the age at which one becomes all too aware of one’s mortality (I am 72). He is border-line obese, based on his claimed height and weight: 6-foot-3 and 236 pounds http://www.ibtimes.com/donald-trump-obese-republican-candidate-overweight-according-his-body-mass-index-2416617 - hence the generously cut jackets which he never takes off so that we never see his figure. And he has never, despite promises repeatedly broken, published his full medical history.
So it’s quite possible that his physical health is not as good as it appears to be. In any event, he is at higher risk of diabetes, etc., etc. so he is very unlikely to be fit to serve 8 years.
There is no way on God's green earth he is only 236 lbs.
I'm still looking at that bloody colourised Holocaust photo
Jesus.
It is so f***ing difficult to grasp (when it should be very easy) that WW 1 and 2 were not fought in a monochrome world. Hopefully photoshoppy algorithms for colorisation exist and will continue to improve.
It's surprising how emotionally powerful photographic colourisation is. Black and white photography dehumanises, I now realise. It puts a distance between us and the subjects in the photo - it makes them history, people of the past, not quite like us. But put some colour in them, and suddenly they are there, in front of you, here and now...
Indeed. One of reasons that Schindler's List was such a powerful film (in my mind) was the girl in the red coat which re-humanises the whole film and makes that point pretty vividly.
Asking for a friend who is writing a thread for PB.
Who was the UK's shortest serving PM, Neville Chamberlain?
Of the modern era surely Douglas-Home?
Campbell-Bannerman in the 20thC?
C-B was PM for over 2 years. ADH, just the one. But no, the actual answer (post-1900) is Bonar Law, the forgotten prime minister as (I think), Lloyd George called him
His autobiography is "the unknown prime minister"!
Biography, I suspect? He died the same year he left office.
(Just checked and it was 'unknown' rather than 'forgotten' PM in the quote, and it was Asquith, not LG).
I'm still looking at that bloody colourised Holocaust photo
Jesus.
If I get the time today, I'll be watching Denial at the cinema, I suspect my brain will be constantly reminding me of that photo whilst I watch that film.
I can't work out why the photo mesmerises me, yet upsets me so much. Is it because I have daughters near her age? Yes, but there's more to it.
Something in her fragile face, the inexpressible sense of impending suffering, the knowledge of what is about to happen to her, the simple fact this pretty girl on the cusp of womanhood is in Auschwitz, for no reason other than being alive, so the Nazis took her to have her killed.
It's probably the single most distressing image from the Holocaust, that I have ever seen. And it's just a face.
I think the reason it haunts is that's there another six million photos to come.
Indeed there's probably more than six million photos when you factor in all the other eradicated by the Nazis.
Asking for a friend who is writing a thread for PB.
Who was the UK's shortest serving PM, Neville Chamberlain?
Of the modern era surely Douglas-Home?
Campbell-Bannerman in the 20thC?
C-B was PM for over 2 years. ADH, just the one. But no, the actual answer (post-1900) is Bonar Law, the forgotten prime minister as (I think), Lloyd George called him
His autobiography is "the unknown prime minister"!
Biography, I suspect? He died the same year he left office.
(Just checked and it was 'unknown' rather than 'forgotten' PM in the quote, and it was Asquith, not LG).
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
With the hit in support that Fillon is taking, oughtn't Macron be favourite in a run-off between the two?
There will be no run off between the two, every poll now has Le Pen leading round one
Yes, but don't Fillon and LePen have around 25% each with Macron at 20% - which leaves 30% to play for or be squeezed.
FPT Good to see some previous critics coming round to Mrs May - of course we've still got the Trump press conference to go - and she's on a jolly sticky wicket, but I for one have been sleeping more soundly since she took office.
On her deliberative style, as she is reported to have remarked "I don't mind if people think I'm thick....for a while"
Give it a day or two and we will have confirmation that all the bending over and genuflection was in vain.
A reminder of how little impact these Washington love-ins usually have:
Asking for a friend who is writing a thread for PB.
Who was the UK's shortest serving PM, Neville Chamberlain?
Of the modern era surely Douglas-Home?
Campbell-Bannerman in the 20thC?
C-B was PM for over 2 years. ADH, just the one. But no, the actual answer (post-1900) is Bonar Law, the forgotten prime minister as (I think), Lloyd George called him
His autobiography is "the unknown prime minister"!
Biography, I suspect? He died the same year he left office.
(Just checked and it was 'unknown' rather than 'forgotten' PM in the quote, and it was Asquith, not LG).
Barack Obama leaves office Friday with 6 in 10 Americans approving of his job performance, capping a steady rise that vaults him above the average final mark for modern presidents, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds.
Trump is tremendously unpopular amongst the media, and people who most likely have above average social influence in the USA. He is also unpopular internationally (Except in Russia). That should not be confused with actual national unpopularity. Indeed he seems quite popular at the moment according to the polling...
On topic... If you think there is a good chance of Trump getting boots after midterms... Then etc on 2019 as it will take a few months for impeachment procedures to get going.
Personally I think Trump is pretty safe. Can't see republicans standing up to him.
FPT Good to see some previous critics coming round to Mrs May - of course we've still got the Trump press conference to go - and she's on a jolly sticky wicket, but I for one have been sleeping more soundly since she took office.
On her deliberative style, as she is reported to have remarked "I don't mind if people think I'm thick....for a while"
Give it a day or two and we will have confirmation that all the bending over and genuflection was in vain.
Has Nicola been grovelling to obscure Eurocrats again?
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
With the hit in support that Fillon is taking, oughtn't Macron be favourite in a run-off between the two?
There will be no run off between the two, every poll now has Le Pen leading round one
Yes, but don't Fillon and LePen have around 25% each with Macron at 20% - which leaves 30% to play for or be squeezed.
Macron is a Blairite, hard left supporters of Hamon and Melenchon are not going to switch to Macron in round 1
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
With the hit in support that Fillon is taking, oughtn't Macron be favourite in a run-off between the two?
There will be no run off between the two, every poll now has Le Pen leading round one
Yes, but don't Fillon and LePen have around 25% each with Macron at 20% - which leaves 30% to play for or be squeezed.
Macron is a Blairite, hard left supporters of Hamon and Melenchon are not going to switch to Macron in round 1
Blair did get chosen by the party that contained Corbyn and McDonnell, but you may well be right. The French system would be much improved by using AV ;-)
Trump is not just 70 1/2, the age at which one becomes all too aware of one’s mortality (I am 72). He is border-line obese, based on his claimed height and weight: 6-foot-3 and 236 pounds http://www.ibtimes.com/donald-trump-obese-republican-candidate-overweight-according-his-body-mass-index-2416617 - hence the generously cut jackets which he never takes off so that we never see his figure. And he has never, despite promises repeatedly broken, published his full medical history.
So it’s quite possible that his physical health is not as good as it appears to be. In any event, he is at higher risk of diabetes, etc., etc. so he is very unlikely to be fit to serve 8 years.
There is no way on God's green earth he is only 236 lbs.
Doesn't he wear a kevlar vest under his shirt most of the time?
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
With the hit in support that Fillon is taking, oughtn't Macron be favourite in a run-off between the two?
There will be no run off between the two, every poll now has Le Pen leading round one
Yes, but don't Fillon and LePen have around 25% each with Macron at 20% - which leaves 30% to play for or be squeezed.
Macron is a Blairite, hard left supporters of Hamon and Melenchon are not going to switch to Macron in round 1
Blair did get chosen by the party that contained Corbyn and McDonnell, but you may well be right. The French system would be much improved by using AV ;-)
They'll switch to him in round 2 v Le Pen, no shadow of a doubt about that.
Trump is not just 70 1/2, the age at which one becomes all too aware of one’s mortality (I am 72). He is border-line obese, based on his claimed height and weight: 6-foot-3 and 236 pounds http://www.ibtimes.com/donald-trump-obese-republican-candidate-overweight-according-his-body-mass-index-2416617 - hence the generously cut jackets which he never takes off so that we never see his figure. And he has never, despite promises repeatedly broken, published his full medical history.
So it’s quite possible that his physical health is not as good as it appears to be. In any event, he is at higher risk of diabetes, etc., etc. so he is very unlikely to be fit to serve 8 years.
There is no way on God's green earth he is only 236 lbs.
Either that, or not 6 foot 3. I would have guessed about 4-5 inches shorter than that - he always seems a squat figure.
WRT mass killing, in terms of percentages of the world's population, I should think Genghis Khan holds the record. And, it was all done by hand.
On a slightly brighter note, as has been discussed on here before: who has saved the most lives? Fleming and penicillin?
My personal bet is on John Snow. How many people have been saved around the world by the discovery that diseases such as cholera are water-borne, and that clean water supplies are vital?
You know, however doomy and turbulent the 21st century seems, and however many celebs died at a cruelly young age in 2016....
Sweet Fucking Jesus, thank the Lord this is not the 20th century. By this time in the 20th century millions of young men had already died in the trenches, and much much worse was to come.
Indeed. We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us. That generation that created the world we now live in. The world we are dismantling without a care.
"We need to listen to the voices of people who lived through it. The lessons they learned and taught us"
Conservative, Unionist, Eurosceptics by and large. We have listened to them, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP want to ignore them
This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit. This is not about Brexit.
Yep. If the UK were advocating leaving NATO, I'd be out with my flaming torch and pitchfork and heading for Downing Street. Brexit is a whole different thing.
TMay made quite clear in her speech yesterday that Brexit Britain will be globalist, internationalist, a strong ally to America and the EU, a firm member of NATO, and fiercely pro-free-trade. All that will change is that we will restore power to our own parliament, and govern ourselves.
As a liberal Leaver I was chuffed. Thats what I want.
The prime minister, and perhaps most Republicans, might be globalist, internationalist and pro-free-trade but the president is none of these things.
Is it not the case that Trump is selectively pro free trade? Pro with countries he respects and who he does not feel are dumping at non-market prices (such as UK) - but anti with those that are (eg China)?
Trump has always been against free trade, which he seems to regard as an anti-American conspiracy, and has done for decades. Mexico, for instance, is not dumping or manipulating its currency yet Trump is talking about imposing tariffs. He has torn up the pro-American TTP, and is critical of NAFTA.
Oh, and Britain? No -- Britain has VAT which Trump regards as an anti-American tariff.
WRT mass killing, in terms of percentages of the world's population, I should think Genghis Khan holds the record. And, it was all done by hand.
On a slightly brighter note, as has been discussed on here before: who has saved the most lives? Fleming and penicillin?
My personal bet is on John Snow. How many people have been saved around the world by the discovery that diseases such as cholera are water-borne, and that clean water supplies are vital?
This one is hard to read because there really never has been a president like Donald Trump before, in particular one that has so little respect for institutions, including his own. Presidents are hard to get rid of but could the institutions fight back this time?
His supporters voted for him to kick ass, which he is doing prodigiously. But will the smarting buttocks have an outcome they approve of, or even care about?
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
With the hit in support that Fillon is taking, oughtn't Macron be favourite in a run-off between the two?
There will be no run off between the two, every poll now has Le Pen leading round one
Yes, but don't Fillon and LePen have around 25% each with Macron at 20% - which leaves 30% to play for or be squeezed.
Macron is a Blairite, hard left supporters of Hamon and Melenchon are not going to switch to Macron in round 1
Blair did get chosen by the party that contained Corbyn and McDonnell, but you may well be right. The French system would be much improved by using AV ;-)
I think the centrist voters who back Macron to avoid a Fillon v Le Pen run off have already switched to him, Hamon and Melenchon voters are leftwing ideologues and yes it is two ballot not AV
I'm still looking at that bloody colourised Holocaust photo
Jesus.
For all that we say 'we will remember', the reality is that we don't really want to. We remember the event, the organisation, the clinical cruelty, the artefacts of bureaucracy, the Arbeit Macht Frei sign and the chimneys but remember the six million dead? Sure - that's a statistic. Six million lives of real people who lived, loved, feared, hoped, sang, worked and so on? No, just too horrible.
Genocide is nearly always unpopular after the event; preventing it beforehand - when it had genuine support, as such things must by definition have, even if out of only falsely-grounded mass hysteria - another matter. Remembering means nothing if not applied to the future, and future applications will be, as they always are, against marginalised and unpopular groups which are strong enough to constitute a perceived threat, weak enough to be taken on, and 'other' enough to be identifiably alien. Siding with such groups, which are rarely targeted without some reason that can be sold in a poster slogan or a two-second soundbite, takes bravery.
I think it's slightly unfair to imply (unless I've misunderstood you) that genocide had popular support in pre war Germany; oppression, confiscation of property, deportation, forced migration, 'resettlement' yes, the driving of children into execution pits and gas chambers no. The evil genius of the Nazis was to persuade the German population of the value of all those steps towards the Holocaust while successfully concealing the final destination, or helping the populace to conceal it from themselves. Afaics a very large number of Germans were able to persuade themselves both during and after the war that they had no conscious knowledge of what was happening 'in the east'.
Significant Labour > Tory swing (but yes easy as she goes for the SNP) - actually a bit of theme; Tory gains have been by unifying the unionist/non-SNP vote in many cases.
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
With the hit in support that Fillon is taking, oughtn't Macron be favourite in a run-off between the two?
There will be no run off between the two, every poll now has Le Pen leading round one
Yes, but don't Fillon and LePen have around 25% each with Macron at 20% - which leaves 30% to play for or be squeezed.
Macron is a Blairite, hard left supporters of Hamon and Melenchon are not going to switch to Macron in round 1
Blair did get chosen by the party that contained Corbyn and McDonnell, but you may well be right. The French system would be much improved by using AV ;-)
They'll switch to him in round 2 v Le Pen, no shadow of a doubt about that.
He has to get to round 2 first and he is a strong third but still not there yet
According to a survey by Odoxa January 26, that is to say after the publication of the article of the satirical newspaper controversy, François Fillon has lost 16 points of popularity in public opinion since his resounding victory against Alain Juppé during The primary on the right.
38% of respondents now have a good opinion of him, compared with 42% in December and 54% in November. If the French judge the former prime minister courageous (54%), they do not find him honest (67%), neither close to their concerns (68%) nor convincing (61%).
Macron then?
I'm rebacking Macron (For a small theoretical loss) whilst still keeping a healthy enough green on Fillon - he doesn't need THAT much % in the first round to be in the final two, and he probably wins if he gets through. Not to write Fillon off but Macron looks eminently possible now.
With the hit in support that Fillon is taking, oughtn't Macron be favourite in a run-off between the two?
There will be no run off between the two, every poll now has Le Pen leading round one
Yes, but don't Fillon and LePen have around 25% each with Macron at 20% - which leaves 30% to play for or be squeezed.
Macron is a Blairite, hard left supporters of Hamon and Melenchon are not going to switch to Macron in round 1
Blair did get chosen by the party that contained Corbyn and McDonnell, but you may well be right. The French system would be much improved by using AV ;-)
They'll switch to him in round 2 v Le Pen, no shadow of a doubt about that.
He has to get to round 2 first and he is a strong third but still not there yet
WRT mass killing, in terms of percentages of the world's population, I should think Genghis Khan holds the record. And, it was all done by hand.
On a slightly brighter note, as has been discussed on here before: who has saved the most lives? Fleming and penicillin?
My personal bet is on John Snow. How many people have been saved around the world by the discovery that diseases such as cholera are water-borne, and that clean water supplies are vital?
A good bet. However I do wonder if Snow's linking of clean water and disease - even if he did not understand the mechanism - has saved more. Could we have as large a cities as modern metropolises without it?
WRT mass killing, in terms of percentages of the world's population, I should think Genghis Khan holds the record. And, it was all done by hand.
On a slightly brighter note, as has been discussed on here before: who has saved the most lives? Fleming and penicillin?
My personal bet is on John Snow. How many people have been saved around the world by the discovery that diseases such as cholera are water-borne, and that clean water supplies are vital?
A good bet. However I do wonder if Snow's linking of clean water and disease - even if he did not understand the mechanism - has saved more. Could we have as large a cities as modern metropolises without it?
All depends on the causative analysis. Individual's negative effects tend to be easier to quantify.
Oh, and Britain? No -- Britain has VAT which Trump regards as an anti-American tariff.
There's room for a Trump-is-not-in-fact-an-ignorant-cretin good-government-by-stealth conspiracy theory here, which is that he wants to bring in an American VAT, and he's going sell it as a great patriotic America-first border tax to get Republicans to vote for it.
Health warning. Do not listen to the archived sound from the cockpit, or rather, don't come crying to me if you do.
I don't know if its still floating about - but about ten yrs ago, someone leaked the full FBI surveillance audio of Jonestown. Boy, that was awful at the end.
WRT mass killing, in terms of percentages of the world's population, I should think Genghis Khan holds the record. And, it was all done by hand.
On a slightly brighter note, as has been discussed on here before: who has saved the most lives? Fleming and penicillin?
My personal bet is on John Snow. How many people have been saved around the world by the discovery that diseases such as cholera are water-borne, and that clean water supplies are vital?
WRT mass killing, in terms of percentages of the world's population, I should think Genghis Khan holds the record. And, it was all done by hand.
On a slightly brighter note, as has been discussed on here before: who has saved the most lives? Fleming and penicillin?
My personal bet is on John Snow. How many people have been saved around the world by the discovery that diseases such as cholera are water-borne, and that clean water supplies are vital?
A good bet. However I do wonder if Snow's linking of clean water and disease - even if he did not understand the mechanism - has saved more. Could we have as large a cities as modern metropolises without it?
I went under the name fr when I first posted on pbc. I was reading a biography of Goderich at the time and fred robinson seemed as good a name as any other.
So it's bye-bye Fillon. Big smiles in the Kremlin and the White House!
What I don't get is why people set so much stock by poll results on how people would vote in the run-off round given a choice between two specified candidates, e.g. 54% Macron to 46% Fillon in a recent poll. Most of both the 54% and the 46% have no particular loyalty either to the candidate or to his organisation - in Fillon's case a political party, in Macron's an electoral vehicle named to have the same initials as his and an outstandingly stupid logo. Most people would be voting in the second round for a candidate who was their second, third, fourth or even less preferred choice in the first round. Not that I'm saying Fillon would beat him. Opinions on that are anyway of little import given that the second round, if one is held, is unlikely to be between those two contenders. But if someone wants to insist on going by those poll results, qualitative considerations suggest that they should assume an enormous margin of error, at least +/- 10% of the total.
If I had a sofa, I would be watching the joint presser from behind it. As it is, I think I'm going to have to watch it with subtitles only. I'm already cringing in anticipation.
So it's bye-bye Fillon. Big smiles in the Kremlin and the White House!
What I don't get is why people set so much stock by poll results on how people would vote in the run-off round given a choice between two specified candidates, e.g. 54% Macron to 46% Fillon in a recent poll. Most of both the 54% and the 46% have no particular loyalty either to the candidate or to his organisation - in Fillon's case a political party, in Macron's an electoral vehicle named to have the same initials as his and an outstandingly stupid logo. Not that I'm saying Fillon would beat him. Opinions on that are anyway of little import given that the second round, if one is held, is unlikely to be between those two contenders. But if someone wants to insist on going by those poll results, qualitative considerations suggest that they should assume an enormous margin of error, at least +/- 10% of the total.
No it isn't no new voting intention polls and so he remains runner up in round 1 and headed for run off with Le Pen
If I had a sofa, I would be watching the joint presser from behind it. As it is, I think I'm going to have to watch it with subtitles only. I'm already cringing in anticipation.
WRT mass killing, in terms of percentages of the world's population, I should think Genghis Khan holds the record. And, it was all done by hand.
The Khmer Rouge were one of the worst examples, I think they killed about a third of the Cambodian population between 1975 and 1979.
And the population loss wasn’t helped by American carpet bombing. Went to Ankor Wat a few years ago. Almost no-one over 50, thanks to the Khmer Rouge, and many of the children had limbs missing as a result of stepping on a (probably American) mine. We went from Thailand by road, and at one point, while we waited for one bald, punctured, tyre to be removed and another bald tyre put on, I started to go off the roadand behind some bushes for quick wee. The guide/taxi driver’s mate stopped me. 'We don’t know if down there has been cleared' he said. ‘You don’t want to tread on a mine!’
FPT Good to see some previous critics coming round to Mrs May - of course we've still got the Trump press conference to go - and she's on a jolly sticky wicket, but I for one have been sleeping more soundly since she took office.
On her deliberative style, as she is reported to have remarked "I don't mind if people think I'm thick....for a while"
Give it a day or two and we will have confirmation that all the bending over and genuflection was in vain.
Has Nicola been grovelling to obscure Eurocrats again?
I see you have no reply, hope her skint knees are worth it
Comments
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/824911404637515777
2 of the flag burners stopped by the FedEx guy were arrested for violatin' Iowa City's burn ordinance. Play stupid games. Win stupid prizes. https://t.co/qP3FtlFpJi
The single politician who can take any credit going for winning the Referendum for Leave is Boris. With an honourable mention to David Cameron, for a) calling it and then b) making sure he pissed off lots of potential soft Remainers with his fantastically ill-judged "little Englanders" and Project Fear spiel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_longevity
Then click on the "Total time is office" column header.
The shortest serving PM was George Canning. In the past 100 years, Andrew Bonar Law and post-War, Alec Douglas-Home
The longest serving PM was Robert Walpole and, in recent times, Margaret Thatcher.
"Once I got in the ambulance they gave me a little pain medicine and some saline drops in my eye and I felt it slide back into place, which is also a really strange feeling...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38767179
Christopher Lin
A city councilman was sworn in holding his Captain America shield https://t.co/rJR3aNYJ4A #marvel #captainamerica #politics #usa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure
https://arstechnica.co.uk/science/2017/01/apollo-1-fire-investigation/
On her deliberative style, as she is reported to have remarked "I don't mind if people think I'm thick....for a while"
Genocide is nearly always unpopular after the event; preventing it beforehand - when it had genuine support, as such things must by definition have, even if out of only falsely-grounded mass hysteria - another matter. Remembering means nothing if not applied to the future, and future applications will be, as they always are, against marginalised and unpopular groups which are strong enough to constitute a perceived threat, weak enough to be taken on, and 'other' enough to be identifiably alien. Siding with such groups, which are rarely targeted without some reason that can be sold in a poster slogan or a two-second soundbite, takes bravery.
So it’s quite possible that his physical health is not as good as it appears to be. In any event, he is at higher risk of diabetes, etc., etc. so he is very unlikely to be fit to serve 8 years.
Approve 59%
Disapprove 41%
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2017/01/26/trumps-approval-rating-hits-59-percent-n2277254
(Just checked and it was 'unknown' rather than 'forgotten' PM in the quote, and it was Asquith, not LG).
Indeed there's probably more than six million photos when you factor in all the other eradicated by the Nazis.
Some people think about death (including their own) very often. Others hardly ever contemplate it.
11% of those who voted for Bernie Sanders in democratic primaries & caucuses voted Trump #uspresident
From @LordAshcroft American polling
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1159344/Americas-salute-Gordon-Brown-new-deal.html
http://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/news-flash-obama-was-an-historically-unpopular-president/
Barack Obama leaves office Friday with 6 in 10 Americans approving of his job performance, capping a steady rise that vaults him above the average final mark for modern presidents, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/18/obama-climbs-to-60-percent-approval-in-final-presidential-approval-rating-post-abc-poll-finds/?utm_term=.aebb143235a0
That should not be confused with actual national unpopularity. Indeed he seems quite popular at the moment according to the polling...
Personally I think Trump is pretty safe. Can't see republicans standing up to him.
And then there were ten.
Click into the ABC poll TSE shared and look at the cross of death on the economy. As much as anything this is why Clinton lost.
Easy SNP hold on East Ayrshire authority last night:
http://britainelects.com/archives/council-by-elections/
My personal bet is on John Snow. How many people have been saved around the world by the discovery that diseases such as cholera are water-borne, and that clean water supplies are vital?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snow
Oh, and Britain? No -- Britain has VAT which Trump regards as an anti-American tariff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Jenner
His supporters voted for him to kick ass, which he is doing prodigiously. But will the smarting buttocks have an outcome they approve of, or even care about?
https://arstechnica.co.uk/science/2017/01/apollo-1-fire-investigation/
Health warning. Do not listen to the archived sound from the cockpit, or rather, don't come crying to me if you do.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/to-your-health/wp/2016/10/06/just-how-big-is-trump-we-asked-5-experts-to-you-guessed-it-weigh-in
You step in the stream,
But the water has moved on.
That was yesterday
I still remember when it was top 6 only. And there were more cars then, I think.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug
Steady as she goes.
Edit. That's going to be a long 40 minutes....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug
http://www.marinamaral.com/blog-2/2016/9/19/in-memory-of-czesawa-kwoka
As well as the Jews, the Nazis murdered millions of others, and the memorial wall at Auschwitz has many other pictures, mostly of Poles.
What I don't get is why people set so much stock by poll results on how people would vote in the run-off round given a choice between two specified candidates, e.g. 54% Macron to 46% Fillon in a recent poll. Most of both the 54% and the 46% have no particular loyalty either to the candidate or to his organisation - in Fillon's case a political party, in Macron's an electoral vehicle named to have the same initials as his and an outstandingly stupid logo. Most people would be voting in the second round for a candidate who was their second, third, fourth or even less preferred choice in the first round. Not that I'm saying Fillon would beat him. Opinions on that are anyway of little import given that the second round, if one is held, is unlikely to be between those two contenders. But if someone wants to insist on going by those poll results, qualitative considerations suggest that they should assume an enormous margin of error, at least +/- 10% of the total.
We went from Thailand by road, and at one point, while we waited for one bald, punctured, tyre to be removed and another bald tyre put on, I started to go off the roadand behind some bushes for quick wee. The guide/taxi driver’s mate stopped me. 'We don’t know if down there has been cleared' he said. ‘You don’t want to tread on a mine!’
Ankor Wat, though was amazing!