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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This YouGov US polling says an awful lot about current US poli

This is scary. When asked by YouGov US 15% of Trump voters responded that pic on the left had more people in it.https://t.co/2gq3dUkl9w pic.twitter.com/uTtII50SGw
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Crowding here!
Edit: There are plenty of other things to find scary about Trump, however.
These are just incredible days and how this is going to end goodness only knows
We have strayed from the path into a minefield
"Each new explosion has reinforced the necessity to carry on and risk greater loss..."
Whenever I encounter "In order to read this thing that you want to read, please answer these 3 questions first" thingys that are now popping up all over the internet, I don't read the question and just poke at some of the options until I get to read the thing that I want.
It works 9 times out of 10.
It would only take ~1/3 of people clicking randomly to give a 15% hit rate for photo A.
Good on you for being honest. It's a perfectly reasonable question to ask. For what it's worth, I couldn't fault anyone for having last minute jitters prior to us pressing the A50 red button. It's only natural: we're about to take a huge, bold - and almost certainly irreversible - new step.
My view? In all honesty, I'm even more comfortable with Brexit now than I was before the vote. I'd priced into my vote an immediate drop in inward investment, a Brexit induced recession, for at least two years, and other countries holding back on even declaring an interest in trade deals before we were firmly Out. I also was concerned the UK might become something of a pariah state: caught in a pincer movement between a Hillary led US, and an repentant EU, determined to ensure we were marginalised so we might reconsider.
I calculated all of that risk still made it worth it. I was worried for the first two weeks, when the UK seemed to enter a sort of political turmoil. But, thankfully, neither of these things have come to pass. Many will say "yet" but I think the world has already changed.
Trump is a blessing and a curse from our point of view - or an opportunity and a threat, if you prefer:
A blessing because his election has opened up strategic options for us both with the EU and the US. We can potentially (not definitely) start working on a trade deal from the goodwill he feels both to the UK - and to Brexit, which he credits with helping secure his victory - whilst his election also increases our distinctiveness and value to the EU as a regional partner in defence and security, and also in acting as a bridge and mediator with Trump.
A curse because Trump is a narcissistic demagogue who only thinks of himself first and, deep down, probably has little affection for his own people, let alone anyone else. His election - to my eternal frustration - has deeply the soured the milk over Brexit because the two have been conflated and it's cast our vote in exactly the same light. And I really don't like that.
But, he won't be around forever. Personally, I think gone in 4 years. But Brexit is for the long-term.
On FTAs with other countries? Well, we don't have to sign any, and we should always be prepared to walk away - and it's worth noting, we don't have any with India, China or Australia/NZ or the US at the moment, and do pretty well as it is - but whilst our raw economic firepower may be less, it is still substantial at around 20-25% of the EU's, and what we lose in 'weight' we gain in flexibility and responsiveness.
So I think Brexit will be a success. We might well end up forging a new role as the West's mediator, and the leader in global open trade and promotion of liberal values.
Meanwhile, here's a front cover from Libération:
15% of Trump supporters enjoy taking the piss out of YouGov.
I have to be careful what I say here - because it's confidential - but, since this isn't a public forum and you're all friends, you may have heard in the news recently that the scope of many of Network Rail's major projects have been cut back due to capability and poor performance.
You may also have heard Mr. Grayling isn't happy. He's looking at Network Rail's sole control of the nation's rail infrastructure and is thinking of sharing it with private firms.
Peter Hansford has been tasked with exploring barriers to competition that prevent different ways of working on railway projects. But his brief is a bit broader than that: it's not just new models of project delivery he's examining, but also options for third party funding and financing of projects.
http://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/hansford-to-review-rail-procurement
In English how can the private sector in the UK get way more involved in financing, building, operating and maintaining railways than we currently do?
My firm is involved in this and I have been invited to submit any thoughts in a short response on scoping, questions and suggestions.
But, before I do, I'd love to hear your views first. What are the barriers? What can we do to break them down? Open season..
There is no prize, reward or kudos for this other than a chance to (potentially) influence. But I think it's a very exciting opportunity
Please let me know on here, or via a private VM, if you have any thoughts.
Thanks! (and keep this quiet, and don't get me fired)
Courage, lads, courage.
Anyway, put simply sometimes to get to where you want to go you face difficulties on the way, but if you won't face them you'll be stuck where you currently are. If there was a problem free way of exiting the EU we'd take that path, but there isn't. And it certainly would have been easier to do so 10 or 20 years ago, but we missed our chance. All we can do is try to make the best of current circumstances, but any notion that we should wait for a better opportunity at a later date, perhaps post Trump, is foolish.
While I appreciate that this is at the lower end of the spectrum from your original post. I know from experience the delays caused on the crossrail project.
the new Labour job creation scheme for a lot of unemployable morons to whom it owed favoursNetwork Rail and thebankers' licence to print moneyROSCOs and having a vertically integrated system like, I don't know, just about every country with a fully functioning railway system on the planet, many if not most of which could be run by private companies?I may have phrased it sarcastically but that is a serious suggestion. David Wragg proposed a 12 company model in his book Signal Failure as long ago as 2004, and I have seen nothing to make me think his model is the wrong one.
The separation of track and trains was the worst disaster ever to befall the railways, not forgetting Harrow and Quintinshill.
[Lot of probablies and suspects in that comment...]
On Corbyns further caving in to The Government - thats 3 Days to talk about ripping up the last 42 Years of British Politics.
With the state DB pensions at the moment a lot of them are unfunded. Perhaps if the government were to spend the money on infrastructure but allocate the resultant asset (which would be operated by someone else) to the pension scheme. Additionally the government shouldn't lead the projects but come in as a minority partner - i.e. deal pricing is on market terms.
Trade off is of course near term cash spend vs long term liability
On Corbyns further caving in to The Government - thats 3 Days to talk about ripping up the last 42 Years of British Politics.
It's an opportunity for people to put markers down, so if things go tits up, arses are duly covered.
I still think three days is too long
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/04/world/americas/mexico-donald-trump-nafta.html?action=click&contentCollection=Economy&module=RelatedCoverage®ion=Marginalia&pgtype=article
You don't think commuters are working people? Or do their jobs, incomes and communities not count in your view?
edited to add [working]
This survey is as voodoo as Baron Samedi. The WaPo is not a polling organisation. The methodology is not stated.
More to the point, even if the story is scary (which it isn't - it just shows that trolling produces equal and opposite counter-trolling) it fails to make it into the top 10 scary Trump-related things which have happened in the past 24 hours.
A puzzling threader.
After two decades, the two economies are tightly braided together. Goods manufactured by companies operating in both countries — whether speakers, cars or airplanes — cross the border multiple times during production, a shared manufacturing process that, if destroyed, would mean shared job losses.
No surprises there. They have voted like sheep to lose their rights in free market Brexit Britain. Their job is done.
But it is very much why the Labour Party will not die, it is needed more than ever.
It's a view, I suppose.
A mere quip on a niche message board does not imply a bonfire of workers rights. In case you hadn't noticed, May is making a play for the C2DE vote and might well end up with her tanks all over Labours traditional lawn. She's already convinced my Mum, so I rate her chances.
What rights do people lose? Well there are mooted plans to stop strikes in "essential services".
Yes, there are mooted plans (proposed by, amongst others, the excellent Chris Philp, one to watch as a future PM). That is in reaction to the misery being imposed on thousands of innocent victims.
Well to quote @CasinoRoyale
"You may also have heard Mr. Grayling isn't happy. He's looking at Network Rail's sole control of the nation's rail infrastructure and is thinking of sharing it with private firms"
How to maximise profit was the remainder of his enquiry.
However, I think you're looking at the wrong thing. I voted to Remain not for any love of the EU but because the direction of the country would be worse if we left than if we remained. This is primarily a moral rather than an economic judgement.
So now we find pbers who told us that Britain was full and could not take any more immigration enthusiastically cheering on the idea of immigration from former white colonies. We find pbers unable to condemn death threats against a public figure without also saying how much they dislike her. Newspapers call judges the enemies of the people for issuing judgments that they disagree with and politicians call for those judges to be sacked for the same reason. Those who continue to want to remain in the EU are branded traitors rather than accepted as honestly believing a different course is better for the country.
The economics can be survived. The damage to the civic society might not.
I've never travelled on a Swiss train that was more than 2 mins. late. They still have a fairly integrated system. BTW, is this a private forum?! News to me.
If you believe so, then Trump will be as nothing compared with the social division here.
The left wing argument against immigration is that capitalist employers use immigrants to drive down workers pay and conditions. The corollory of reducing immigration is enhancing workers rights, by striking or voting with their feet.
I did suspect Brexiteers sympathy for British workers would be shortlived, and so it is proven.
Let's not have more than that. Thank-you.
https://twitter.com/LibbyWienerITV/status/824361817078190086
Nothing like working out what might be the right thing to do in the circumstances.
Of course unions prefer public ownership. That's because politicians are easy to intimidate, since they have to get re-elected in the short term.
Please do feel free to come back to me anytime if you have any eureka moments!
Cheers.