Over the past week there’s been a rush to bet on UKIP in the Stoke Central by-election. This has gathered apace and now the best you can get is about 11/8. This has been driven by the demographics of the seat, the way it went so strongly for LEAVE at the referendum, and the fact that the leader of UKIP has decided to be the candidate.
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The reason I'm not backing UKIP here isn't because of their poor performances in FPTP elections, but because Mrs May's recent plans is quite UKIPy.
Just reading yesterday's threads. That conversation on what women what (which seemingly was dominated by men) was a mess. No, not all women want a dominant, alpha male type man.
Also the idea that patriarchy as a concept stems from women having dad issues....well, certainly that's the first time I've heard that as argument. When I was at uni (and even now post uni among my group of friends), generally if you were a liberal left girl you weren't dating a Tory. I don't know why so many Conservative/right wing men have such an issue with this. Yesterday's conversation alone makes clear the big differences in values between the right and liberal left that makes such a reluctance understandable.
Ms Apocalypse, I have no idea what women think, but I do have an inkling of what most men think.
I do agree that some of the lines of argument were bizarre. I find it sad that 'never kissed a Tory' is a thing, but most relationships need common views and interests in order to thrive, so it's just one of those things.
How this will impact the voting, pass.
If UKIP do pull it off, I wonder if it'll be like the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election of 2006 on the betting front?
Several local candidates have already publicly expressed their intention to run, including the Royal Stoke A&E doctor and army reservist Stephen Hitchin, the former Newcastle-under-Lyme council leader Mike Stubbs, the councillor and local shopkeeper Chris Spence, and the former Labour candidate for Staffordshire Moorlands, Trudie McGuinness.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/20/jeremy-corbyn-labour-copeland-byelection-gillian-troughton
On your second point, I agree 100%.
@CD13 And what do you believe most men think?
Though I think PB is right to focus on the devolution angle. As a non lawyer everything I'd read suggested the devolution appeal was weak. So the result is no surprise. But the brevity and brutality of the dismissal of the Sewell Convention in the judgement is breathtaking. It confirms the UK's nature as an entirely unitary state in a way nothing post 1997 has. In the current climate it's undoubtedly a bomb with albeit it a long fuse.
Still all to play for. Brexit is a Supertanker with the engine still running. But today adds a few barnacles to the boat. We've two years know to change some leave voters minds and/or supression their turnout. Anything can happen next in two years. It's an extraordinary period in UK politics. Anything could happen.
I agree Hunt's absence is helpful. But Corbyn's presence won't be.
The Sewel Convention does not apply as foreign affairs is not a devolved matter. The convention, such that it is, remains untouched.
Where I would disagree slightly is with regard to the LD messaging. Attacking Labour does not, of itself, provide a reason to vote Lib Dem. It might just as well push voters to UKIP or, less probably, the Tories. The party that benefits - other than where there are ideological boundaries - will be the party best placed to oppose Labour.
And as you say, what is UKIP for? Independence from what? The EU? We will have that as soon as Article 50 is served. Fox duly shot. UKIP, rather than the LibDems, can play the "Look around you - Labour have taken you for granted for decades" card. But it is the Tories that have actually got an argument to make for having done something to break through that. Not that they will get the credit and break through 25%. And if UKIP DO manage to get their act together, will likely go markedly backwards in this by-election.
His "hot ones," therefore, are likely to obey the Mrs Merton paradox.
As a happy Beta male, I don't feel that I have missed out. The sort of partners attracted to gentle and thoughtful Beta male are vastly preferable. Long term beats short term every time.
Nothing like the Oldham seat that Mike keeps mentioning
If won, an independence referendum in Scotland would also be the best way of walking back Brexit in the rUK.
2. Brexit might not be as hard as they'd like so there are still issues there.
3. UKIP is also a domestic policy party and can run as a populist UK version of Trump: protectionist, flag-waving and noisy. Others can play to that crowd but none so authentically.
1997 - Labour vote: 66.2% Mark Fisher MP - Labour vote +8.2%
2001 - Labour vote: 60.7% Mark Fisher MP - Labour vote -5.5%
2005 - Labour vote: 52.9% Mark Fisher MP - Labour vote -7.8%
2010 - Labour vote: 38.8% Tristram Hunt MP - Labour vote -14.1%
2015 - Labour vote: 39.3% Tristram Hunt MP - Labour vote +0.5%
You could argue that as a candidate in 2010, maybe he put off a lot of Labour voters, but had at least stabilised his support by 2015.
Your belief that UKIP will do well commits the age old lefty mistake (and as you are an erstwhile lefty I can see where it's coming from) of believing that you are the only one who really gets what's going on, while the plebs will remain unaware.
There is a market, I think, for a political party to replace Labour as representing the "Working Classes" or at any rate for which people who would have traditionally supported Labour could and would vote for. Could UKIP reinvent itself to fill that space? I doubt it, though it is not impossible.
https://twitter.com/cnn/status/821404456315158529
On your second point: that's one 'controversial' study. No evidence from your link that it's findings are accepted by the scientific community as a whole.
The porn example is flawed because most women don't watch porn. The vast majority of porn watchers are men, and a range of studies show this.
(I only ask because I suggested this approach a few days ago when Nuttall was rumoured to be getting the nod)
What will they say about me?
When the end comes, I know
He was just a gigolo
Life goes on without me...
Cons aren't trying
I'm sure the market will move ukips way further
Genuine question: Why? Why would winning a Scottish referendum be the best way of "walking back" Brexit? At the very least the maths moves towards Leave as you've just taken out about a net 600K Remainers all other things staying equal, and regretful though that separation may possibly be to some, I would suggest the prevailing mood in rUK would tend towards the "good riddance" more than the "please don't go", though of course it would be shades of grey.
Probably some more to come when the Labour candidate is known, and nominations close.
Firstly, why does the gloss soon wear off? Perhaps because the voters realise the LibDems are not actually on their side?
Secondly, the big decisions are not made at local level they are made at Westminster where the LibDems have 9 MPs (and how many of those are from seats decided by the "Working classes"?).
I think I 'll stand by my view that there is a gap in the market for a party to replace Labour, but I doubt UKIP is that party.
UKIP was an immensely successful pressure group but I very much doubt it has the skills and resources to invent itself as a full on political party. However, perhaps a bit over a hundred years ago people were saying that about the Labour Party.
Can't see the logic of that at all. I think you're indulging in wishful thinking.
What I find strange is that the SC judgement is pretty straightforward. Parliament must be consulted, for valid constitutional reasons, all with precedent, before A50 can be triggered.
Easy peasy.
Why will the denizens of Stoke be so unable to grasp such a straightforward point, which is presumably what your UKIP bet is predicated upon.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38733081
Why not go for a hat-trick and meet Putin on Sunday?
So Hunt had everything going for him in 2015, and thus his virtual inability to increase the Labour share was a pretty appalling local performance.
I think this is a good thing for Ukip, if you think differently you can lay me a bet?
It's not hard, chaps.
PORN flakes!
(I'll get me dirty mac...)
*spelling intentional!
Remember Theresa May came to power saying that protecting the 'much more precious' union with Scotland was a priority. If her hard Brexit plan instead drives them away, can she survive? Wouldn't the countries she's courting for trade deals not look at events and wonder if they're backing a loser?
And the only bet I ever had with you I lost. I am tempted, however, this time. I'm happy to bet you £10 that UKIP won't win Stoke.
Ok what price are you offering?
For sure, Scotland's economic price would be heavier, but it's not inconceivable. Scots have the right to self-determination.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/823905411543826434
Now I agree Scotland seems to be drifting away at present (that could change too of course, nothing is forever) and I think something new will have to be done (federal UK or whatever) post Brexit, if there is the will to keep it all stitched together in a new form.
However, I just don't see how on earth any sensible debate could genuinely be had till Brexit is 100% done nor that Scotland saying "Ok we're off if you Brexit" is really going to be the brake you think it will be on England (and Wales).
And Scots exercised their self-determination in 2014 when they voted to remain in the UK.
To me it seemed the sort of thing men talk about when they get together, and no need for me to be a wet blanket.
I am myself somewhat left-leaning, though less so than you, I expect.
The sort of debate that interests me about left/right differences and gender issues is that the left make the noise about equality and don't much vote for women unless they've no option and the right just allow a free-for-all through which women can & do fight their way to the top.
Regardless of politics, I prefer an approach that works.
Any woman of sense needs only to look at what happened to Harriet Harman to realise that her own chances as a Labour politician are doomed from the outset. Or the shambles the Mr Corbyn produced when deciding his first Shadow Cabinet - no woman's name apparently entered his mind, never mind his ShadCab, until someone pointed it out, far too late to disguise the fact.
If a woman wants to join a boys' club, where women are the groupies, she can't do better than join the Labour party (or, from what I read, any of the other left organisations).
I don't understand why the younger women can't see it, but there are always plenty of candidates for the lower rungs of the ladder.
(All thoroughly off-topic, for which I apologise, and Good afternoon, everyone.)
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/sigmar-gabriel-tritt-nicht-als-spd-kanzlerkandidat-an-14744704.html
I also think they're bonkers if they believe that EU membership is going to solve their issues, but I'm at least halfway to being a Cybernat.
That, and a Sex Olympics guaranteed podium finish when it came to oral.....