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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hamon tops the first round French Socialist primary and looks

Benoit Hamon moves to 4th favourite to the French presidency after a clear win over Manuel Valls in 1st round of Soclalist nomination race pic.twitter.com/1LJ7c1E244
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Edit: Third like Spurs.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
My book is back to £0!!
http://tinyurl.com/gmqymck
I think he won's lose as badly as Juppé did but I can't see him winning.
Shame it wasn't CamerON and ClintON
Trump was addressing the assembled representatives of the nation's agencies when he called out to Comey, who was hidden away at the back of the room.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4146204/Trump-gives-special-thanks-FBI-head-James-Comey.html
the advice is based on experiments on mice, rather than any studies showing that acrylamide causes cancer in people...It is also not known whether even a diet high in browned foods such as well-done roast potatoes could expose a person to enough of the chemical to risk triggering the cancer.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/22/government-warning-roast-potato-cancer-link-massive-overreaction/
Police officer shot in Northern Ireland in 'terrorist attack'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/22/police-officer-shot-northern-ireland-terrorist-attack/
I don't think there are a lot of voters Macron can take from that side so he will have to maximise the centre/centre-left vote and hope that either Fillon or Le Pen is sufficiently weakened by the other.
There is still the question of Bayrou (centrist candidate in 2002 2007 and 2012) running or not. If he does, it would probably limit Macron's potential.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38712776
Especially when compared to the troubles our own left-wing party is having. Is it possible that come 2020 they will have similarly fallen to fourth like their French sister party?
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/821512502743863296
Macron has forward momentum, Fillon has reverse momentum and Valls demise can only stengthen Macron even further.
Gordon BrownEd Miliband....The prime minister is to unveil a new, more interventionist, industrial strategy on Monday, designed to boost the post-Brexit UK economy.
The government will be "stepping up to a new, active role," Mrs May said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38713327
DYOR.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/01/20/how_trump_won_--_conclusions_132846.html
As I pointed out in response to HYUFD last night, it is hard to see where the Dems will pick up enough to take the House. Their vote is just too inefficiently distributed.
To me, the most surprising part of Trende's analysis is his conclusion that the Senate now effectively has a GOP gerrymander.
A green paper will set out ways the government can provide support to businesses by addressing regulatory barriers, agreeing trade deals and helping to establish institutions that encourage innovation and skills development.
Smart energy, robotics, artificial intelligence and 5G mobile network technology are some of the areas that could receive support through a new Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, according to Downing Street.
https://www.ft.com/content/69a92106-df03-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce
European leaders still in denial about Trump and Brexit.
https://www.ft.com/content/9edbbcca-e094-11e6-8405-9e5580d6e5fb
Suddenly, the banks shouldn't worry about their passports.
Industrial strategy: a helping hand, not taking the wheel
Today's industrial strategy is an attempt to lend a helping hand without having both on the steering wheel. The best way to do that, thinks the government, is to provide something that just about everyone agrees is needed and provide it in a location-appropriate way to sectors where we are already pretty successful.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38714252
What struck me was Barack Obama broke 40% in rural areas in 2008 and a bit under in 2012.
Hilary polled 30%. He was hardly an ideal candidate for rural America but still crushed her by more than 10 points comparing to 2008.
I do think that is reversible with the right candidate.
Long term it can't be sustainable to have once side winning more votes and the other side winning more representation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/22/theresa-may-donald-trump-hold-talks-trade-deal-cuts-tariffs/
AV would have been a great way to address this IMO.
I think Democrats would have happily renominated Obama if allowed.
And his rural vote numbers are good enough to win.
What was she thinking? Was she thinking?
Perhaps if an SDP2 had happened before the EU referendum, we also wouldn't be where we are on Brexit.
I'm not convinced we'll see a large number of new trade deals that see mass transfer of sovereignty away from the people to courts as the West sees relative decline. More trade deals re: goods only - probably.
Obama also better at driving turnout with African Americans and young people too I think.
But it's buried halfway down the article and you'd never guess it from the headline
(Incidentally, it always seems to be CA you cite as the example, not LA which uses the same system)
(also, not only the calls on Dec 29th under investigation)
Really interesting in that it shows what a creature Trump is and what a talent she is. Totally incomprehensible that any sentient being could vote for him
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/megyn-kelly-and-the-question-that-changed-her-life-forever/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/white-house-pushes-‘alternative-facts’-here-are-the-real-ones/ar-AAm7yEL
The effect of this is that California's primary works exactly like the two round system of the French Presidential election.
some more alternatives
If the Dems manage to get to +4 or +5 in the popular vote share, I think (even with inefficiently spread vote) they'll probably make it. Can they get to +4/+5? Here's how the last few elections have gone:
2016 R+1
2014 R+6
2012 D+1
2010 R+7
2008 D+9
2006 D+8
2004 R+3
2002 R+5
2000 -
1998 R+1
As you can see, when the Dems are in the White House there are swings to them, and when the Repubs are there it goes the other way. (The exception being 2002 when I think 9/11 skews it.)
The moves can be huge. 2006->2008 saw the Dems go fro 3 behind to 8 ahead! Likewise 2010, saw the Repubs go from 9 behind to 7 ahead.
So, while the Republicans should probably be favourite to hold the House, the swing required is by no means an unusual one for a mid-term.
Mr. Paris, let's hope you're right. Allez, Macron!
I don't think I've ever had a winning bet on a leadership or presidential candidate.
She sees the world in a very 'for and against' manner and having those people vote against her would justify their persecution after she had won.
And she thought she had enough other votes to guarantee victory - she had bought into her own echo chamber talk of 'progressive majorities'.
This is very revealing about her campaign:
' Former Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania also said he had encouraged campaign aides at Mrs. Clinton’s Brooklyn headquarters to spread their vast resources outside Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and focus on rural white pockets of the state. “We had the resources to do both,” Mr. Rendell said Wednesday. “The campaign — and this was coming from Brooklyn — didn’t want to do it.” (Mr. Trump won Pennsylvania by one percentage point.) '
They had the resources to campaign in the rural areas and they were asked to campaign in the rural areas but they didn't want to campaign in the rural areas.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/us/politics/hillary-clinton-campaign.html?_r=0
https://twitter.com/alxwinter/status/823026509912952832