politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate UKIP as a 29% chance in Stoke Central. A chance f
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Oh I'm not a thoughtless cheerleader. There will be storms. But it won't be Labour that take advtange of them. Just read the Jexit chapter of Shipper's book. Labour couldn't even organise the ejection of their hapless leader...John_M said:
I completely disagree. If the reportage is correct, May's Tories absolutely own Brexit now. It's her strategy, and I feel it's incredibly high risk (while fully appreciating the thinking behind it). If I were a Labour supporter, I would be incredibly optimistic about GE20 (if it's even that far out).Mortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
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Not whileever Corbyn is around. If they had a half decent leader, I would agree with your analysisJohn_M said:
I completely disagree. If the reportage is correct, May's Tories absolutely own Brexit now. It's her strategy, and I feel it's incredibly high risk (while fully appreciating the thinking behind it). If I were a Labour supporter, I would be incredibly optimistic about GE20 (if it's even that far out).Mortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
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UKIP are now literally pointless. They might as well shut up shop.Yorkcity said:
I agree Farage and Nuttall surely can not ask for more.May is leaving no room for them.williamglenn said:If May anticipates a very big constitutional struggle to get A50 invoked, this is exactly the political positioning she would take to head off any threat of UKIP gaining ground.
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@faisalislam: At this stage, no one has actually seen what is in the 12 point plan, everyone is merely reporting the fact of the 12 point plan existing0
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Jobs that are part time will become full timeSouthamObserver said:
How? Which jobs will see wages rise? We are going to be competing with low wage economies for investment.isam said:Stopping free movement of cheap labour is Christmas come early for low paid British workers. It's so simple that clever people refuse to believe it.
https://twitter.com/bbcbreakfast/status/8198016751163883540 -
Great. You and me will be fine, of course; but walking away and initiating a race to the bottom will make things even worse for the forgotten and left behind who were told to expect higher public spending, a wages bonanza and no changes to employment legislation. And you can throw in higher prices too, as an added bonus.SeanT said:
This is the only way to "negotiate" with Europe. De Gaulle's empty chair.SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
It's debating tactics adult learning centre course A. You must be prepared to walk away with the "worst deal" for all.
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The pro-UKIP vote isn't any stronger, it was slightly higher in North and only slightly lower in South. But my point is the anti-UKIP vote is far more significant in Central and will mean they have a ceiling and it will give Labour a boost.Tissue_Price said:
Yes and no. It has bigger anti-UKIP pools of voters as you suggest, but the pro-UKIP vote is stronger here too. It's more anti-Tory too, so it's much easier for UKIP to claim to be the real opposition (as things stand I'd expect the Tories to win SOT South in a hypothetical 2017 election, and North would be a close, possibly 3-way, contest; though Ruth Smeeth would probably hang on).brokenwheel said:
Central Stoke includes most of the Staffs Uni student accomodation, and is where the station with direct connection to London is. Oh and it includes most of the town of Hanley, which is a third Muslim. It's the worst Stoke seat for UKIP.isam said:
If that is so, & I'm not disputing it, labour 4/5 is insanebrokenwheel said:
Indeed, UKIP have a low demographic ceiling here even before you take into account other factors.Casino_Royale said:I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.
(NB those taking the train to commute to London are mostly not living in Stoke-on-Trent Central!)0 -
Telegraph has extracts
“Not partial membership of the European Union, associate membership of the European Union, or anything that leaves us half-in, half-out. We do not seek to adopt a model already enjoyed by other countries. We do not seek to hold on to bits of membership as we leave.0 -
Just as the right sort of migration can be sold, so can the right sort of welfarism.Cyclefree said:
Depends what you mean by "mass welfarism".Mortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
May was making a speech recently about mental health. If one area of the NHS needs extra resources it is this. No-one who hasn't lived with someone suffering from mental illness can have any idea of how awful it is, not just for the sufferer but for those around them.
And yet getting help, getting the right help is a lucky dip with the odds stacked against you. Providing help to those in this desperately vulnerable position, to their carers, to families who fear the premature death of those in the grip of despair and illness is not toxic.
It is unfashionable but not toxic. When you need help you realise how callous it can sound to say that welfare is something ghastly to be got rid of just so that we can, well, what, exactly?
May and her team seem far more concerned with public opinion (in the country) than the media driven SW1 bubble led Osbornites
In short, doing something that can be sold to the public might just be the right thing for the country.
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Such as? No-one is getting repatriated. Those who are here will remain. So for your plan to work more jobs will need to be created.isam said:
Jobs that are part time will become full timeSouthamObserver said:
How? Which jobs will see wages rise? We are going to be competing with low wage economies for investment.isam said:Stopping free movement of cheap labour is Christmas come early for low paid British workers. It's so simple that clever people refuse to believe it.
https://twitter.com/bbcbreakfast/status/819801675116388354
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Yet again your delusional young fogeyish provincial prejudices against the mythical latte-ocracy again colour your view. The present is satire as documentary: eurosceptic curtain twitchers frothing against a fictional liberal elite, thinking they represent the common man.Mortimer said:
Not sure what you're talking about. But all I hear is thaat the common ground are sick of condescendion from the people who benefit most and want ever-cheaper Lattes.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the British people are just longing for further public spending cuts, lower wages growth and increased job insecurity. :-DMortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
The common ground can also see that negotiation requires a hard nose.0 -
Not really. It's about your BATNA - Best Alternative to Negotiated Agreement. Walking away is the EU's BATNA because they want a clean break. The UK's BATNA is to stay put and refuse to budge. That way she would definitely get a deal. The only reason Theresa May rejects our BATNA is because she is terrified of her hard Berxit faction.SeanT said:
This is the only way to "negotiate" with Europe. De Gaulle's empty chair.SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
It's debating tactics adult learning centre course A. You must be prepared to walk away with the "worst deal" for all.0 -
Here's a suggestion: how about waiting until tomorrow, when we will see what the PM has to say, rather than running around like the crowd on the station in Monsieur Hulot's Holiday as frantic journalists issue contradictory guesses as to what she might say?0
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Yep, she is in full swivel-eyed appeasement mode.Yorkcity said:
I agree Farage and Nuttall surely can not ask for more.May is leaving no room for them.williamglenn said:If May anticipates a very big constitutional struggle to get A50 invoked, this is exactly the political positioning she would take to head off any threat of UKIP gaining ground.
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Get in, Nick, go for it.NickPalmer said:
Fat. Chance. You have to be a current member of 6 months' standing before you're even eligible.rottenborough said:Seems George 'cat feeding' Galloway has demanded that he be allowed to stand in Stoke for Labour.
If Tezza is threatening a low tax economy then Lab has a rallying cry to get behind. They might bring a few others with them also.0 -
Are you new here?Richard_Nabavi said:Here's a suggestion: how about waiting until tomorrow, when we will see what the PM has to say, rather than running around like the crowd on the station in Monsieur Hulot's Holiday as frantic journalists issue contradictory guesses as to what she might say?
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Evan Davis is currently spotting the fundamental flaw in Starmer's genius 'we need a vote on the deal' so we can vote against it stance.
I.e. That it is laughable...0 -
Oh where's the fun in that?Richard_Nabavi said:Here's a suggestion: how about waiting until tomorrow, when we will see what the PM has to say, rather than running around like the crowd on the station in Monsieur Hulot's Holiday as frantic journalists issue contradictory guesses as to what she might say?
I'm just finishing 'All Out War', welling up at the pathos of the final passages and feeling all over-emotional. 0 -
For good or ill, Mrs May now owns Brexit.0
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Or it might notMortimer said:
Just as the right sort of migration can be sold, so can the right sort of welfarism.Cyclefree said:
Depends what you mean by "mass welfarism".Mortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
May was making a speech recently about mental health. If one area of the NHS needs extra resources it is this. No-one who hasn't lived with someone suffering from mental illness can have any idea of how awful it is, not just for the sufferer but for those around them.
And yet getting help, getting the right help is a lucky dip with the odds stacked against you. Providing help to those in this desperately vulnerable position, to their carers, to families who fear the premature death of those in the grip of despair and illness is not toxic.
It is unfashionable but not toxic. When you need help you realise how callous it can sound to say that welfare is something ghastly to be got rid of just so that we can, well, what, exactly?
May and her team seem far more concerned with public opinion (in the country) than the media driven SW1 bubble led Osbornites
In short, doing something that can be sold to the public might just be the right thing for the country.0 -
Is walking away (or preparing to do so) really the best strategy, as the PB truism suggests? That may be the case for a one-off transaction, but is it for longer term transactions?williamglenn said:
Saying you're prepared to walk away, and being prepared to walk away are two very different things.SeanT said:
This is the only way to "negotiate" with Europe. De Gaulle's empty chair.SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
It's debating tactics adult learning centre course A. You must be prepared to walk away with the "worst deal" for all.
May will have to hold this line through a lot of political and economic turbulence over the next 2 years. Can she do it? I don't think so.
Surely the best deal in a long term relationship is one that both parties feel is a good deal, because they will come back for more. The easiest sale is a returning customer, because you have already made the sale before they have crossed the threshold.
Preparing to leave is the passive-aggressive approach that might get a one night stand (though probably one with crabs and an STD!), while what we want out of Europe is a long term mutually beneficial partnership.0 -
Again? You're sort of suggesting my impression of the way the public will vote has been proven wrong in the last few years...Jobabob said:
Yet again your delusional young fogeyish provincial prejudices against the mythical latte-ocracy again colour your view. The present is satire as documentary: eurosceptic curtain twitchers frothing against a fictional liberal elite, thinking they represent the common man.Mortimer said:
Not sure what you're talking about. But all I hear is thaat the common ground are sick of condescendion from the people who benefit most and want ever-cheaper Lattes.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the British people are just longing for further public spending cuts, lower wages growth and increased job insecurity. :-DMortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
The common ground can also see that negotiation requires a hard nose.0 -
France was and is central to the European project in a way that Britain never was and is not now. No country would have called France's bluff. I suspect that May will have hers called.SeanT said:
This is the only way to "negotiate" with Europe. De Gaulle's empty chair.SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
It's debating tactics adult learning centre course A. You must be prepared to walk away with the "worst deal" for all.
Having made a series of mistakes when the project was first conceived which poisoned Britain's role within Europe - out of hubris and arrogance and an inflated sense of her own importance - Britain now risks making similar mistakes and for many of the same reasons.0 -
Wonderful isn't it.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, she is in full swivel-eyed appeasement mode.Yorkcity said:
I agree Farage and Nuttall surely can not ask for more.May is leaving no room for them.williamglenn said:If May anticipates a very big constitutional struggle to get A50 invoked, this is exactly the political positioning she would take to head off any threat of UKIP gaining ground.
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Yes I know I meant been on the phone to stop convictions of individuals who sanctioned the policy at the company.It seems one rule for big business just pay a fine for a criminal SFO offence and another rule for the rest.rcs1000 said:
That is to the US and the Brazilians, nothing to do with EuropeYorkcity said:
Hope Rolls Royce have not having to pay 671 milion over bribery claims.Scott_P said:Have Nissan been on the phone?
@faisalislam: My understanding: tho out of ECJ jurisdiction, & so Single Market formal membership, Customs Union language in May speech less concrete 1/20 -
Very good isn't it. Just finishing the Tory leadership chapters.John_M said:
Oh where's the fun in that?Richard_Nabavi said:Here's a suggestion: how about waiting until tomorrow, when we will see what the PM has to say, rather than running around like the crowd on the station in Monsieur Hulot's Holiday as frantic journalists issue contradictory guesses as to what she might say?
I'm just finishing 'All Out War', welling up at the pathos of the final passages and feeling all over-emotional.
Almost as good as Cummings' blog post.0 -
Having said that, Theresa May's approach reflects the UK's negotiating position, which is generally a weak one, but we do have some cards to play. Nevertheless her language and mood music is all wrong if she wants to get a good deal for the country, as she says she does.FF43 said:
Not really. It's about your BATNA - Best Alternative to Negotiated Agreement. Walking away is the EU's BATNA because they want a clean break. The UK's BATNA is to stay put and refuse to budge. That way she would definitely get a deal. The only reason Theresa May rejects our BATNA is because she is terrified of her hard Berxit faction.SeanT said:
This is the only way to "negotiate" with Europe. De Gaulle's empty chair.SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
It's debating tactics adult learning centre course A. You must be prepared to walk away with the "worst deal" for all.0 -
Rumours on Twitter of another LAB MP throwing in the towel soon. I'll need some more popcorn for all these by-election in marginals/Brexity northern seats.0
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Sorry I genuinely don't understand that responseMortimer said:
Again? You're sort of suggestion my impression of the way the public will vote has been proven wrong in the last few years...Jobabob said:
Yet again your delusional young fogeyish provincial prejudices against the mythical latte-ocracy again colour your view. The present is satire as documentary: eurosceptic curtain twitchers frothing against a fictional liberal elite, thinking they represent the common man.Mortimer said:
Not sure what you're talking about. But all I hear is thaat the common ground are sick of condescendion from the people who benefit most and want ever-cheaper Lattes.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the British people are just longing for further public spending cuts, lower wages growth and increased job insecurity. :-DMortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
The common ground can also see that negotiation requires a hard nose.0 -
May should do what your hero Cameron did and let the EU know we're willing to lie down and get fisted.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: At this stage, no one has actually seen what is in the 12 point plan, everyone is merely reporting the fact of the 12 point plan existing
That went really well.0 -
Well at least that is sort of an admission that mass immigration has hammered the lowest paid. Even if it is so that everyone here will remain, flying in the face of other Remainers who tell tales of Europeans fleeing/becoming Irish because the atmosphere is so nasty post Brexit, at least it stems the flow.SouthamObserver said:
Such as? No-one is getting repatriated. Those who are here will remain. So for your plan to work more jobs will need to be created.isam said:
Jobs that are part time will become full timeSouthamObserver said:
How? Which jobs will see wages rise? We are going to be competing with low wage economies for investment.isam said:Stopping free movement of cheap labour is Christmas come early for low paid British workers. It's so simple that clever people refuse to believe it.
https://twitter.com/bbcbreakfast/status/819801675116388354
Maybe non Brits will not receive top ups to their wages? Who knows? Now we can do something rather than think about big businesses owners margins0 -
Incidentally, wasn't there once, long long ago, a convention that major announcements should be made to parliament before anyone else?0
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Some of the remain critics of Mrs may on pb wanted her as leader,you my friends own Mrs May.0
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Dimly recalling my early sales training, there are three forms of negotiation, competitive, cooperative and collaborative. Ideally we'd like the third form; we're likely to get the first.foxinsoxuk said:
Is walking away (or preparing to do so) really the best strategy, as the PB truism suggests? That may be the case for a one-off transaction, but is it for longer term transactions?williamglenn said:
Saying you're prepared to walk away, and being prepared to walk away are two very different things.SeanT said:
This is the only way to "negotiate" with Europe. De Gaulle's empty chair.SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
It's debating tactics adult learning centre course A. You must be prepared to walk away with the "worst deal" for all.
May will have to hold this line through a lot of political and economic turbulence over the next 2 years. Can she do it? I don't think so.
Surely the best deal in a long term relationship is one that both parties feel is a good deal, because they will come back for more. The easiest sale is a returning customer, because you have already made the sale before they have crossed the threshold.
Preparing to leave is the passive-aggressive approach that might get a one night stand (though probably one with crabs and an STD!), while what we want out of Europe is a long term mutually beneficial partnership.
Re-reading that, it's clearly time for bed, I'm coming over all Southam. Night night all.0 -
And Guido says all of these stories were embargoed until midnightRichard_Nabavi said:Incidentally, wasn't there once, long long ago, a convention that major announcements should be made to parliament before anyone else?
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Especially something that contains market sensitive data.Richard_Nabavi said:Incidentally, wasn't there once, long long ago, a convention that major announcements should be made to parliament before anyone else?
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Sturgeon has to go for it. May has set out her stall as a very English UK nationalist. With Labour unelectable under Corbyn, the Scots can look forward to years of relentless right wing Tory rule from Westminster. As Brexit showed, some things are more important than pounds and pennies. And, anyway, weren't all the experts who have warned about an independent Scotland's economy crashing totally wrong about the consequences of a Leave vote?TheScreamingEagles said:The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.
So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.
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Losing Sindyref 2 during the A50 negotiations would be interesting... Would May try to block it until we're out?TheScreamingEagles said:The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.
So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.0 -
Typo for suggestion/suggesting.Jobabob said:
Sorry I genuinely don't understand that responseMortimer said:
Again? You're sort of suggesting my impression of the way the public will vote has been proven wrong in the last few years...Jobabob said:
Yet again your delusional young fogeyish provincial prejudices against the mythical latte-ocracy again colour your view. The present is satire as documentary: eurosceptic curtain twitchers frothing against a fictional liberal elite, thinking they represent the common man.Mortimer said:
Not sure what you're talking about. But all I hear is thaat the common ground are sick of condescendion from the people who benefit most and want ever-cheaper Lattes.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the British people are just longing for further public spending cuts, lower wages growth and increased job insecurity. :-DMortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
The common ground can also see that negotiation requires a hard nose.
I've been proved right by the public - May 2015, June 2016. I don't see why you continue to jeer. Presumably because you don't like what you're hearing?
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This canard has been done to death on here and elsewhere - it's not possible to eject Corbyn *under PLP rules* --- the rules are utterly insane (although under most analyses were written as such because no-one thought anyone would ever stay on did they fail to command the support of the PLP). By all means attack the rules and rule makers, but suggesting that a botched plot was to blame is just lazy thinking. The problem is the rules, not the plot.Mortimer said:
Oh I'm not a thoughtless cheerleader. There will be storms. But it won't be Labour that take advtange of them. Just read the Jexit chapter of Shipper's book. Labour couldn't even organise the ejection of their hapless leader...John_M said:
I completely disagree. If the reportage is correct, May's Tories absolutely own Brexit now. It's her strategy, and I feel it's incredibly high risk (while fully appreciating the thinking behind it). If I were a Labour supporter, I would be incredibly optimistic about GE20 (if it's even that far out).Mortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
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Theresa has certainly pressed the Brexit Nuke button. The intention is obviously to put the frighteners on Europe. If they wobble then it might work out okay for her; if they don't it's probably curtains. I don't know if this is driven by self-belief or panic, but it's Russian-roulette stuff.0
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I've devoured it, and it's not my normal choice of reading materiel - highly recommended and well balanced.Mortimer said:
Very good isn't it. Just finishing the Tory leadership chapters.John_M said:
Oh where's the fun in that?Richard_Nabavi said:Here's a suggestion: how about waiting until tomorrow, when we will see what the PM has to say, rather than running around like the crowd on the station in Monsieur Hulot's Holiday as frantic journalists issue contradictory guesses as to what she might say?
I'm just finishing 'All Out War', welling up at the pathos of the final passages and feeling all over-emotional.
Almost as good as Cummings' blog post.0 -
Is the Supreme Court likely to have given Theresa May advance knowledge of their decision?0
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Less regulation and lower corporate taxes are exactly what big business wants. And just you wait until the American corporates get their teeth into lobbying around Trump's "fair" trade deal with us.isam said:
Well at least that is sort of an admission that mass immigration has hammered the lowest paid. Even if it is so that everyone here will remain, flying in the face of other Remainers who tell tales of Europeans fleeing/becoming Irish because the atmosphere is so nasty post Brexit, at least it stems the flow.SouthamObserver said:
Such as? No-one is getting repatriated. Those who are here will remain. So for your plan to work more jobs will need to be created.isam said:
Jobs that are part time will become full timeSouthamObserver said:
How? Which jobs will see wages rise? We are going to be competing with low wage economies for investment.isam said:Stopping free movement of cheap labour is Christmas come early for low paid British workers. It's so simple that clever people refuse to believe it.
https://twitter.com/bbcbreakfast/status/819801675116388354
Maybe non Brits will not receive top ups to their wages? Who knows? Now we can do something rather than think about big businesses owners margins
0 -
What has Sturgeon got to lose? losing a second indyref would be no more damaging to the SNP than funking one.SouthamObserver said:
Sturgeon has to go for it. May has set out her stall as a very English UK nationalist. With Labour unelectable under Corbyn, the Scots can look forward to years of relentless right wing Tory rule from Westminster. As Brexit showed, some things are more important than pounds and pennies. And, anyway, weren't all the experts who have warned about an independent Scotland's economy crashing totally wrong about the consequences of a Leave vote?TheScreamingEagles said:The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.
So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.0 -
For Pete's sake, they're meant to be politicians. If they can't get a useless leader out they won't be able to find the right words to win an election.Jobabob said:
This canard has been done to death on here and elsewhere - it's not possible to eject Corbyn *under PLP rules* --- the rules are utterly insane (although under most analyses were written as such because no-one thought anyone would ever stay on did they fail to command the support of the PLP). By all means attack the rules and rule makers, but suggesting that a botched plot was to blame is just lazy thinking. The problem is the rules, not the plot.Mortimer said:
Oh I'm not a thoughtless cheerleader. There will be storms. But it won't be Labour that take advtange of them. Just read the Jexit chapter of Shipper's book. Labour couldn't even organise the ejection of their hapless leader...John_M said:
I completely disagree. If the reportage is correct, May's Tories absolutely own Brexit now. It's her strategy, and I feel it's incredibly high risk (while fully appreciating the thinking behind it). If I were a Labour supporter, I would be incredibly optimistic about GE20 (if it's even that far out).Mortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
0 -
The alternative was even worse.Tykejohnno said:Some of the remain critics of Mrs may on pb wanted her as leader,you my friends own Mrs May.
0 -
That works both ways, though. If the consequences of a Leave vote turn out to be benign, then that undermines Nicola Sturgeon's propehcies of doom and gloom as much as Osborne's.SouthamObserver said:
...And, anyway, weren't all the experts who have warned about an independent Scotland's economy crashing totally wrong about the consequences of a Leave vote?
Conversely, if it all goes bad over the next couple years (which realistically is the earliest timescale for an IndyRef2), are Scots going to risk making it worse by jumping out of two frying pans into unknown fires?0 -
Ever heard of Quebec?foxinsoxuk said:
What has Sturgeon got to lose? losing a second indyref would be no more damaging to the SNP than funking one.SouthamObserver said:
Sturgeon has to go for it. May has set out her stall as a very English UK nationalist. With Labour unelectable under Corbyn, the Scots can look forward to years of relentless right wing Tory rule from Westminster. As Brexit showed, some things are more important than pounds and pennies. And, anyway, weren't all the experts who have warned about an independent Scotland's economy crashing totally wrong about the consequences of a Leave vote?TheScreamingEagles said:The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.
So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.0 -
If she thinks that she can benefit from panic over Trump's inauguration she may be disappointed. The EU has bigger things to worry about than our negotiations. It could just be a repeat of Dave's negotiation but conducted at DEFCON1.Stark_Dawning said:Theresa has certainly pressed the Brexit Nuke button. The intention is obviously to put the frighteners on Europe. If they wobble then it might work out okay for her; if they don't it's probably curtains. I don't know if this is driven by self-belief or panic, but it's Russian-roulette stuff.
0 -
She has been captured by the willy wavers and thumbs-uppers.FF43 said:
Having said that, Theresa May's approach reflects the UK's negotiating position, which is generally a weak one, but we do have some cards to play. Nevertheless her language and mood music is all wrong if she wants to get a good deal for the country, as she says she does.FF43 said:
Not really. It's about your BATNA - Best Alternative to Negotiated Agreement. Walking away is the EU's BATNA because they want a clean break. The UK's BATNA is to stay put and refuse to budge. That way she would definitely get a deal. The only reason Theresa May rejects our BATNA is because she is terrified of her hard Berxit faction.SeanT said:
This is the only way to "negotiate" with Europe. De Gaulle's empty chair.SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
It's debating tactics adult learning centre course A. You must be prepared to walk away with the "worst deal" for all.
0 -
-
If Quebec hadn't had a second referendum it would still be part of Canada. What did the Quebec separatists lose?Mortimer said:
Ever heard of Quebec?foxinsoxuk said:
What has Sturgeon got to lose? losing a second indyref would be no more damaging to the SNP than funking one.SouthamObserver said:
Sturgeon has to go for it. May has set out her stall as a very English UK nationalist. With Labour unelectable under Corbyn, the Scots can look forward to years of relentless right wing Tory rule from Westminster. As Brexit showed, some things are more important than pounds and pennies. And, anyway, weren't all the experts who have warned about an independent Scotland's economy crashing totally wrong about the consequences of a Leave vote?TheScreamingEagles said:The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.
So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.0 -
She might have surprised you.SouthamObserver said:
The alternative was even worse.Tykejohnno said:Some of the remain critics of Mrs may on pb wanted her as leader,you my friends own Mrs May.
0 -
Agreed. My main new cultural impression of politicians if that they spend their entire time texting and tweeting...John_M said:
I've devoured it, and it's not my normal choice of reading materiel - highly recommended and well balanced.Mortimer said:
Very good isn't it. Just finishing the Tory leadership chapters.John_M said:
Oh where's the fun in that?Richard_Nabavi said:Here's a suggestion: how about waiting until tomorrow, when we will see what the PM has to say, rather than running around like the crowd on the station in Monsieur Hulot's Holiday as frantic journalists issue contradictory guesses as to what she might say?
I'm just finishing 'All Out War', welling up at the pathos of the final passages and feeling all over-emotional.
Almost as good as Cummings' blog post.0 -
Remember I backed both outcomes and won big.Mortimer said:
Typo for suggestion/suggesting.Jobabob said:
Sorry I genuinely don't understand that responseMortimer said:
Again? You're sort of suggesting my impression of the way the public will vote has been proven wrong in the last few years...Jobabob said:
Yet again your delusional young fogeyish provincial prejudices against the mythical latte-ocracy again colour your view. The present is satire as documentary: eurosceptic curtain twitchers frothing against a fictional liberal elite, thinking they represent the common man.Mortimer said:
Not sure what you're talking about. But all I hear is thaat the common ground are sick of condescendion from the people who benefit most and want ever-cheaper Lattes.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the British people are just longing for further public spending cuts, lower wages growth and increased job insecurity. :-DMortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
The common ground can also see that negotiation requires a hard nose.
I've been proved right by the public - May 2015, June 2016. I don't see why you continue to jeer. Presumably because you don't like what you're hearing?
My issue is not with your predictions (although I actually think you forecast a Clinton win?) but your ludicrous attempts to project on to your fantastical 'liberal elite' a range of views which suit your own prejudices0 -
The possibility of ever leaving?foxinsoxuk said:
If Quebec hadn't had a second referendum it would still be part of Canada. What did the Quebec separatists lose?Mortimer said:
Ever heard of Quebec?foxinsoxuk said:
What has Sturgeon got to lose? losing a second indyref would be no more damaging to the SNP than funking one.SouthamObserver said:
Sturgeon has to go for it. May has set out her stall as a very English UK nationalist. With Labour unelectable under Corbyn, the Scots can look forward to years of relentless right wing Tory rule from Westminster. As Brexit showed, some things are more important than pounds and pennies. And, anyway, weren't all the experts who have warned about an independent Scotland's economy crashing totally wrong about the consequences of a Leave vote?TheScreamingEagles said:The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.
So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.0 -
We'll see. We disagree. Wages and hours have been forced down by cheap labour from the A8 countries. That is my belief, and also one of the main reasons Leave won. It's not worth you and I arguing back and forth on here about it, let's see how it plays outSouthamObserver said:
Less regulation and lower corporate taxes are exactly what big business wants. And just you wait until the American corporates get their teeth into lobbying around Trump's "fair" trade deal with us.isam said:
Well at least that is sort of an admission that mass immigration has hammered the lowest paid. Even if it is so that everyone here will remain, flying in the face of other Remainers who tell tales of Europeans fleeing/becoming Irish because the atmosphere is so nasty post Brexit, at least it stems the flow.SouthamObserver said:
Such as? No-one is getting repatriated. Those who are here will remain. So for your plan to work more jobs will need to be created.isam said:
Jobs that are part time will become full timeSouthamObserver said:
How? Which jobs will see wages rise? We are going to be competing with low wage economies for investment.isam said:Stopping free movement of cheap labour is Christmas come early for low paid British workers. It's so simple that clever people refuse to believe it.
https://twitter.com/bbcbreakfast/status/819801675116388354
Maybe non Brits will not receive top ups to their wages? Who knows? Now we can do something rather than think about big businesses owners margins0 -
She should go for it, quite right.foxinsoxuk said:
What has Sturgeon got to lose? losing a second indyref would be no more damaging to the SNP than funking one.SouthamObserver said:
Sturgeon has to go for it. May has set out her stall as a very English UK nationalist. With Labour unelectable under Corbyn, the Scots can look forward to years of relentless right wing Tory rule from Westminster. As Brexit showed, some things are more important than pounds and pennies. And, anyway, weren't all the experts who have warned about an independent Scotland's economy crashing totally wrong about the consequences of a Leave vote?TheScreamingEagles said:The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.
So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.
0 -
What apart from dithering for months would Leadsom have done differently?Tykejohnno said:
She might have surprised you.SouthamObserver said:
The alternative was even worse.Tykejohnno said:Some of the remain critics of Mrs may on pb wanted her as leader,you my friends own Mrs May.
0 -
There was a choice of her or Leadsom.Tykejohnno said:Some of the remain critics of Mrs may on pb wanted her as leader,you my friends own Mrs May.
0 -
Foget Nuttall, send for Mark Reckless. A winner amongst champions.0
-
Agreed. I think she would have surprised even her worst critics by just how awful she proved to be.Tykejohnno said:
She might have surprised you.SouthamObserver said:
The alternative was even worse.Tykejohnno said:Some of the remain critics of Mrs may on pb wanted her as leader,you my friends own Mrs May.
0 -
I should probably be classed, amongst pretty much everyone here, as part of the liberal elite that have benefited from the current situation. However, that doesn't make it the only way. Others seem unable to see any good in an alternative.Jobabob said:
Remember I backed both outcomes and won big.Mortimer said:
Typo for suggestion/suggesting.Jobabob said:
Sorry I genuinely don't understand that responseMortimer said:
Again? You're sort of suggesting my impression of the way the public will vote has been proven wrong in the last few years...Jobabob said:
Yet again your delusional young fogeyish provincial prejudices against the mythical latte-ocracy again colour your view. The present is satire as documentary: eurosceptic curtain twitchers frothing against a fictional liberal elite, thinking they represent the common man.Mortimer said:
Not sure what you're talking about. But all I hear is thaat the common ground are sick of condescendion from the people who benefit most and want ever-cheaper Lattes.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the British people are just longing for further public spending cuts, lower wages growth and increased job insecurity. :-DMortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
...Mortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
The common ground can also see that negotiation requires a hard nose.
I've been proved right by the public - May 2015, June 2016. I don't see why you continue to jeer. Presumably because you don't like what you're hearing?
My issue is not with your predictions (although I actually think you forecast a Clinton win?) but your ludicrous attempts to project on to your fantastical 'liberal elite' a range of views which suit your own prejudices0 -
A response that reveals that you have no grasp of PLP rules.Mortimer said:
For Pete's sake, they're meant to be politicians. If they can't get a useless leader out they won't be able to find the right words to win an election.Jobabob said:
This canard has been done to death on here and elsewhere - it's not possible to eject Corbyn *under PLP rules* --- the rules are utterly insane (although under most analyses were written as such because no-one thought anyone would ever stay on did they fail to command the support of the PLP). By all means attack the rules and rule makers, but suggesting that a botched plot was to blame is just lazy thinking. The problem is the rules, not the plot.Mortimer said:
Oh I'm not a thoughtless cheerleader. There will be storms. But it won't be Labour that take advtange of them. Just read the Jexit chapter of Shipper's book. Labour couldn't even organise the ejection of their hapless leader...John_M said:
I completely disagree. If the reportage is correct, May's Tories absolutely own Brexit now. It's her strategy, and I feel it's incredibly high risk (while fully appreciating the thinking behind it). If I were a Labour supporter, I would be incredibly optimistic about GE20 (if it's even that far out).Mortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
0 -
But there will never be a perfect time to call a referendum like that. The polls are close enough at the moment, and recent referendum history (Sindy14, Brexit16) showed huge turnarounds in polls numbers once the campaign got underway.Mortimer said:
The possibility of ever leaving?foxinsoxuk said:
If Quebec hadn't had a second referendum it would still be part of Canada. What did the Quebec separatists lose?Mortimer said:
Ever heard of Quebec?foxinsoxuk said:
What has Sturgeon got to lose? losing a second indyref would be no more damaging to the SNP than funking one.SouthamObserver said:
Sturgeon has to go for it. May has set out her stall as a very English UK nationalist. With Labour unelectable under Corbyn, the Scots can look forward to years of relentless right wing Tory rule from Westminster. As Brexit showed, some things are more important than pounds and pennies. And, anyway, weren't all the experts who have warned about an independent Scotland's economy crashing totally wrong about the consequences of a Leave vote?TheScreamingEagles said:The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.
So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.
In every way apart from perhaps the pure economic case, which is always going to be debated endlessly, everything is aligning as well as it is going to for Scotland to vote for independence.0 -
@Ed_Miliband: Fairly sure 'Let's give billions more to big business in tax cuts' wasn't on the bus...0
-
I notice SeanT has left us. I am presuming all this talk of punishing hard brexit has given him the horn & had engage with his intern again.0
-
In the circumstances, the EU would have to take a position on an application. If they made it clear Scotland would be welcomed then it could be a game changer.Jobabob said:
She should go for it, quite right.foxinsoxuk said:
What has Sturgeon got to lose? losing a second indyref would be no more damaging to the SNP than funking one.SouthamObserver said:
Sturgeon has to go for it. May has set out her stall as a very English UK nationalist. With Labour unelectable under Corbyn, the Scots can look forward to years of relentless right wing Tory rule from Westminster. As Brexit showed, some things are more important than pounds and pennies. And, anyway, weren't all the experts who have warned about an independent Scotland's economy crashing totally wrong about the consequences of a Leave vote?TheScreamingEagles said:The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.
So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.0 -
At least there wasn't some balls about 'time to care'.Scott_P said:@Ed_Miliband: Fairly sure 'Let's give billions more to big business in tax cuts' wasn't on the bus...
0 -
There are rules, and there are politics. A group of that that cannot solve party rule problems will never get close to winning an electio....Jobabob said:
A response that reveals that you have no grasp of PLP rules.Mortimer said:
For Pete's sake, they're meant to be politicians. If they can't get a useless leader out they won't be able to find the right words to win an election.Jobabob said:
This canard has been done to death on here and elsewhere - it's not possible to eject Corbyn *under PLP rules* --- the rules are utterly insane (although under most analyses were written as such because no-one thought anyone would ever stay on did they fail to command the support of the PLP). By all means attack the rules and rule makers, but suggesting that a botched plot was to blame is just lazy thinking. The problem is the rules, not the plot.Mortimer said:
Oh I'm not a thoughtless cheerleader. There will be storms. But it won't be Labour that take advtange of them. Just read the Jexit chapter of Shipper's book. Labour couldn't even organise the ejection of their hapless leader...John_M said:
I completely disagree. If the reportage is correct, May's Tories absolutely own Brexit now. It's her strategy, and I feel it's incredibly high risk (while fully appreciating the thinking behind it). If I were a Labour supporter, I would be incredibly optimistic about GE20 (if it's even that far out).Mortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
0 -
Given that you aren't liberal I suspect you may fail on a key criteria to entry.Mortimer said:
Snip thers seem unable to see any good in an alternative.Jobabob said:
Remember I backed both outcomes and won big.Mortimer said:
Typo for suggestion/suggesting.Jobabob said:
Sorry I genuinely don't understand that responseMortimer said:
Again? You're sort of suggesting my impression of the way the public will vote has been proven wrong in the last few years...Jobabob said:
Yet again your delusional young fogeyish provincial prejudices against the mythical latte-ocracy again colour your view. The present is satire as documentary: eurosceptic curtain twitchers frothing against a fictional liberal elite, thinking they represent the common man.Mortimer said:
Not sure what you're talking about. But all I hear is thaat the common ground are sick of condescendion from the people who benefit most and want ever-cheaper Lattes.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the British people are just longing for further public spending cuts, lower wages growth and increased job insecurity. :-DMortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
...Mortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
The common ground can also see that negotiation requires a hard nose.
I've been proved right by the public - May 2015, June 2016. I don't see why you continue to jeer. Presumably because you don't like what you're hearing?
My issue is not with snip hich suit your own prejudices0 -
I am not sure that a second independence referendum campaign will be notable for subtle back and forth. But the main argument will be that an increasingly right wing Tory party, ensconced for the forseeable future in Wrstminster, is taking Scotland in a direction she clearly doesn't want to go. That seems totally fair enough to me. And it could well tip the balance. As Brexit showed, wealth and prosperity are not everything.Richard_Nabavi said:
That works both ways, though. If the consequences of a Leave vote turn out to be benign, then that undermines Nicola Sturgeon's propehcies of doom and gloom as much as Osborne's.SouthamObserver said:
...And, anyway, weren't all the experts who have warned about an independent Scotland's economy crashing totally wrong about the consequences of a Leave vote?
Conversely, if it all goes bad over the next couple years (which realistically is the earliest timescale for an IndyRef2), are Scots going to risk making it worse by jumping out of two frying pans into unknown fires?
0 -
Says the poster who was trying to force other posters into making a firm call on an election on the other side of the world just a couple of months ago.Jobabob said:
Given that you aren't liberal I suspect you may fail on a key criteria to entry.Mortimer said:
Snip thers seem unable to see any good in an alternative.Jobabob said:
Remember I backed both outcomes and won big.Mortimer said:
Typo for suggestion/suggesting.Jobabob said:
Sorry I genuinely don't understand that responseMortimer said:
Again? You're sort of suggesting my impression of the way the public will vote has been proven wrong in the last few years...Jobabob said:
Yet again your delusional young fogeyish provincial prejudices against the mythical latte-ocracy again colour your view. The present is satire as documentary: eurosceptic curtain twitchers frothing against a fictional liberal elite, thinking they represent the common man.Mortimer said:
Not sure what you're talking about. But all I hear is thaat the common ground are sick of condescendion from the people who benefit most and want ever-cheaper Lattes.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the British people are just longing for further public spending cuts, lower wages growth and increased job insecurity. :-DMortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
...Mortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
The common ground can also see that negotiation requires a hard nose.
I've been proved right by the public - May 2015, June 2016. I don't see why you continue to jeer. Presumably because you don't like what you're hearing?
My issue is not with snip hich suit your own prejudices0 -
Oh good. That makes me feel so much better...Tykejohnno said:Some of the remain critics of Mrs may on pb wanted her as leader,you my friends own Mrs May.
0 -
I'm not having a dig here. But has the liberal left ever been so weak in the UK?Mortimer said:
At least there wasn't some balls about 'time to care'.Scott_P said:@Ed_Miliband: Fairly sure 'Let's give billions more to big business in tax cuts' wasn't on the bus...
10/15 years ago Blair and his EU-supporting government absolutely ruled the roost. Europhobes were widely regarded as minority fanatics.
Now the left is reduced to Farron, a few tweets from Ed Miliband and Martin Freeman.
What the bloody hell happened? This was unthinkable just a decade ago.0 -
What has she got to lose ? Her six-figure-salaried-soft job. There'll be no second referendum on her watch, believe me.foxinsoxuk said:
What has Sturgeon got to lose? losing a second indyref would be no more damaging to the SNP than funking one.SouthamObserver said:
Sturgeon has to go for it. May has set out her stall as a very English UK nationalist. With Labour unelectable under Corbyn, the Scots can look forward to years of relentless right wing Tory rule from Westminster. As Brexit showed, some things are more important than pounds and pennies. And, anyway, weren't all the experts who have warned about an independent Scotland's economy crashing totally wrong about the consequences of a Leave vote?TheScreamingEagles said:The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.
So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.0 -
Maybe the plan is to be beaten out of a hard Brexit position by the storm of protest.Stark_Dawning said:Theresa has certainly pressed the Brexit Nuke button. The intention is obviously to put the frighteners on Europe. If they wobble then it might work out okay for her; if they don't it's probably curtains. I don't know if this is driven by self-belief or panic, but it's Russian-roulette stuff.
0 -
Not in modern political history.Fenster said:
I'm not having a dig here. But has the liberal left ever been so weak in the UK?Mortimer said:
At least there wasn't some balls about 'time to care'.Scott_P said:@Ed_Miliband: Fairly sure 'Let's give billions more to big business in tax cuts' wasn't on the bus...
10/15 years ago Blair and his EU-supportING government absolutely ruled the roost. Europe ones were widely regarded as minority fanatics.
Now the left is reduced to Farron, a few tweets from Ed Miliband and Martin Freeman.
What the bloody hell happened? This was unthinkable just a decade ago.
The liberal left moved away from the common ground of England. Prosperity masked this until 08, but forcing cultural change on a small c conservative people was overrreach.0 -
She has already categorically ruled out having one in 2017MonikerDiCanio said:What has she got to lose ? Her six-figure-salaried-soft job. There'll be no second referendum on her watch, believe me.
0 -
May is deranged and even more in thrall to the nutters in her party than Cameron was. She'll beggar us all and not care a toss.
0 -
This could let Labour, the Lib Dems and UKIP back in the game. If May's Brexit turns Britain into an economy of sweeteners for foreign billionaires and oligarchs, then which elements of the electorate won't be narked off? Especially if austerity is revived to fund these sweeteners. The anti-Tory slogans would write themselves.Scott_P said:@Ed_Miliband: Fairly sure 'Let's give billions more to big business in tax cuts' wasn't on the bus...
0 -
If May was playing silly buggers the EU could well do that, buying Spain off with an explicit commitment that Catalonia is a different case.williamglenn said:
In the circumstances, the EU would have to take a position on an application. If they made it clear Scotland would be welcomed then it could be a game changer.Jobabob said:
She should go for it, quite right.foxinsoxuk said:
What has Sturgeon got to lose? losing a second indyref would be no more damaging to the SNP than funking one.SouthamObserver said:
Sturgeon has to go for it. May has set out her stall as a very English UK nationalist. With Labour unelectable under Corbyn, the Scots can look forward to years of relentless right wing Tory rule from Westminster. As Brexit showed, some things are more important than pounds and pennies. And, anyway, weren't all the experts who have warned about an independent Scotland's economy crashing totally wrong about the consequences of a Leave vote?TheScreamingEagles said:The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.
So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.
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yes, as I thought, you don't understand PLP rules. At least that much is clear from your puffMortimer said:
There are rules, and there are politics. A group of that that cannot solve party rule problems will never get close to winning an electio....Jobabob said:
A response that reveals that you have no grasp of PLP rules.Mortimer said:
For Pete's sake, they're meant to be politicians. If they can't get a useless leader out they won't be able to find the right words to win an election.Jobabob said:
This canard has been done to death on here and elsewhere - it's not possible to eject Corbyn *under PLP rules* --- the rules are utterly insane (although under most analyses were written as such because no-one thought anyone would ever stay on did they fail to command the support of the PLP). By all means attack the rules and rule makers, but suggesting that a botched plot was to blame is just lazy thinking. The problem is the rules, not the plot.Mortimer said:
Oh I'm not a thoughtless cheerleader. There will be storms. But it won't be Labour that take advtange of them. Just read the Jexit chapter of Shipper's book. Labour couldn't even organise the ejection of their hapless leader...John_M said:
I completely disagree. If the reportage is correct, May's Tories absolutely own Brexit now. It's her strategy, and I feel it's incredibly high risk (while fully appreciating the thinking behind it). If I were a Labour supporter, I would be incredibly optimistic about GE20 (if it's even that far out).Mortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-DMortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
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Good.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice SeanT has left us. I am presuming all this talk of punishing hard brexit has given him the horn & had engage with his intern again.
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X
People were told that mass immigration from the EU wasn't going to happenFenster said:
I'm not having a dig here. But has the liberal left ever been so weak in the UK?Mortimer said:
At least there wasn't some balls about 'time to care'.Scott_P said:@Ed_Miliband: Fairly sure 'Let's give billions more to big business in tax cuts' wasn't on the bus...
10/15 years ago Blair and his EU-supporting government absolutely ruled the roost. Europhobes were widely regarded as minority fanatics.
Now the left is reduced to Farron, a few tweets from Ed Miliband and Martin Freeman.
What the bloody hell happened? This was unthinkable just a decade ago.
Then, when it happened, they were told it was essential for the economy
Then people realised it made the rich richer and the poor poorer
So we left the EU0 -
I might just go back and check on all the remain may cheerleaders ;-)0
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Go and study the 2016 Tory leadership election.Jobabob said:
yes, as I thought, you don't understand PLP rules. At least that much is clear from your puffMortimer said:
There are rules, and there are politics. A group of that that cannot solve party rule problems will never get close to winning an electio....Jobabob said:
A response that reveals that you have no grasp of PLP rules.Mortimer said:
For Pete's sake, they're meant to be politicians. If they can't get a useless leader out they won't be able to find the right words to win an election.Jobabob said:
This canard has been done to death on here and elsewhere - it's not possible to eject Corbyn *under PLP rules* --- the rules are utterly insane (although under most analyses were written as such because no-one thought anyone would ever stay on did they fail to command the support of the PLP). By all means attack the rules and rule makers, but suggesting that a botched plot was to blame is just lazy thinking. The problem is the rules, not the plot.Mortimer said:
Oh I'm not a thoughtless cheerleader. There will be storms. But it won't be Labour that take advtange of them. Just read the Jexit chapter of Shipper's book. Labour couldn't even organise the ejection of their hapless leader...John_M said:
I completely disagree. If the reportage is correct, May's Tories absolutely own Brexit now. It's her strategy, and I feel it's incredibly high risk (while fully appreciating the thinking behind it). If I were a Labour supporter, I would be incredibly optimistic about GE20 (if it's even that far out).Mortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:Mortimer said:SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
Leader forced to resign because he ballsed up and insulted half his party.
Unity candidate decided upon for national interest and political advantage (most likely to win next election).
We didn't need to consult the rule book because politics and power trump party processes.0 -
What part of a low tax, light touch regulation UK is not going to work for the elite? The people who will pay are those further down the ladder. As always.Mortimer said:
I should probably be classed, amongst pretty much everyone here, as part of the liberal elite that have benefited from the current situation. However, that doesn't make it the only way. Others seem unable to see any good in an alternative.Jobabob said:
Remember I backed both outcomes and won big.Mortimer said:
Typo for suggestion/suggesting.Jobabob said:
Sorry I genuinely don't understand that responseMortimer said:
Again? You're sort of suggesting my impression of the way the public will vote has been proven wrong in the last few years...Jobabob said:
Yet again yourommon man.Mortimer said:
Not sure what you're talking about. But all I hear is thaat the common ground are sick of condescendion from the people who benefit most and want ever-cheaper Lattes.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the British people are just longing for further public spending cuts, lower wages growth and increased job insecurity. :-DMortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
...Mortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
The common ground can also see that negotiation requires a hard nose.
I've been proved right by the public - May 2015, June 2016. I don't see why you continue to jeer. Presumably because you don't like what you're hearing?
My issue is not with your predictions (although I actually think you forecast a Clinton win?) but your ludicrous attempts to project on to your fantastical 'liberal elite' a range of views which suit your own prejudices
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I agree..I think Blair was naive about immigration especially..I think the UK is a tolerant and welcoming country but the sheer scale and speed of immigration on his watch hardened attitudes. That and the imposition of the metropolitan liberal left will (anyone raising objections - however reasonable - being labelled a bigot or racist). It pissed people off and it has screwed Labour for a generation. Blairites and flowery liberal Europhiles only exist on Twitter now. I never meet any in real life.Mortimer said:
Not in modern political history.Fenster said:
I'm not having a dig here. But has the liberal left ever been so weak in the UK?Mortimer said:
At least there wasn't some balls about 'time to care'.Scott_P said:@Ed_Miliband: Fairly sure 'Let's give billions more to big business in tax cuts' wasn't on the bus...
10/15 years ago Blair and his EU-supportING government absolutely ruled the roost. Europe ones were widely regarded as minority fanatics.
Now the left is reduced to Farron, a few tweets from Ed Miliband and Martin Freeman.
What the bloody hell happened? This was unthinkable just a decade ago.
The liberal left moved away from the common ground of England. Prosperity masked this until 08, but forcing cultural change on a small c conservative people was overrreach.0 -
LOL - yes I really undermined my liberal principles with that one!Mortimer said:
Says the poster who was trying to force other posters into making a firm call on an election on the other side of the world just a couple of months ago.Jobabob said:
snipMortimer said:
Snip thers seem unable to see any good in an alternative.Jobabob said:
Remember I backed both outcomes and won big.Mortimer said:
snipJobabob said:
Sorry I genuinely don't understand that responseMortimer said:
Again? You're sort of suggesting my impression of the way the public will vote has been proven wrong in the last few years...Jobabob said:
Yet again your delusional young fogeyish provincial prejudices against the mythical latte-ocracy again colour your view. The present is satire as documentary: eurosceptic curtain twitchers frothing against a fictional liberal elite, thinking they represent the common man.Mortimer said:
Not sure what you're talking about. But all I hear is thaat the common ground are sick of condescendion from the people who benefit most and want ever-cheaper Lattes.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, the British people are just longing for further public spending cuts, lower wages growth and increased job insecurity. :-DMortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:
...Mortimer said:
Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
The common ground can also see that negotiation requires a hard nose.
My issue is not with snip hich suit your own prejudices0 -
She can try using Brexit is a lever to force independence, but there are several hurdles to get over:SouthamObserver said:
Sturgeon has to go for it. May has set out her stall as a very English UK nationalist. With Labour unelectable under Corbyn, the Scots can look forward to years of relentless right wing Tory rule from Westminster. As Brexit showed, some things are more important than pounds and pennies. And, anyway, weren't all the experts who have warned about an independent Scotland's economy crashing totally wrong about the consequences of a Leave vote?TheScreamingEagles said:The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.
So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.
1. The issue of the currency - both the withdrawal from Sterling, and the commitment to adopt the Euro if they go back into the EU - that hampered them the first time around has still not been solved.
2. The issue of Scotland's gargantuan public sector deficit that hampered them the first time around has still not been solved.
3. The issue of the oil (which is worth a fraction of what it once was anyway) running out, and the decommissioning costs of the oilfields, which didn't really feature last time, is bound to come up.
4. A good argument is needed for why the European single market is essential to Scotland's welfare, whereas the British single market is dispensable. Even though the latter is worth vastly more to Scotland than the former.
5. Holyrood is one of the most powerful devolved legislatures in the world: as such, the 'Tory Governments we didn't vote for' argument is not what it once was.
6. The immediate reaction to the Brexit decision went against the Nationalists. Roughly speaking, for every one Unionist who was so enraged about being separated from the EU that they found themselves willing to abandon the UK, another pro-independence voter who wanted rid of the EU even more than the UK moved in the opposite direction. Is any further reaction to this decision going to be enough to get Sturgeon over the finishing line, or will it also be neutral?
7. If the polls continue to tell Sturgeon and May that a majority of Scots oppose both a second vote and independence, then May will feel free to ignore calls for a re-run, and if Sturgeon attempts anything unilateral then it will be blocked in the Scottish court system and likely result in civil disobedience to boot.
8. Even if there is a substantial movement in favour of secession and May feels compelled to allow another plebiscite, the campaign would likely be far nastier and more divisive than it was the first time around, and with no guarantee of success. If Sturgeon loses then her career is finished and so, for the foreseeable future, is the cause of separatism.
So, an intriguing dilemma.0 -
What happened? Blair gave us the Iraq war and the financial crisis. That's what happened. They destroyed trust in the political classes, in the system that permitted them to happen and now people have revolted.Fenster said:
I'm not having a dig here. But has the liberal left ever been so weak in the UK?Mortimer said:
At least there wasn't some balls about 'time to care'.Scott_P said:@Ed_Miliband: Fairly sure 'Let's give billions more to big business in tax cuts' wasn't on the bus...
10/15 years ago Blair and his EU-supporting government absolutely ruled the roost. Europhobes were widely regarded as minority fanatics.
Now the left is reduced to Farron, a few tweets from Ed Miliband and Martin Freeman.
What the bloody hell happened? This was unthinkable just a decade ago.
Brexit is one of the consequences.0 -
I was strongly pro the Union in the last IndyRef. If another referendum is held I would expect to vote against independence a second time, but something's broken and it won't be with the same determination. Basically, if I can accept Brexit, I can accept independence for Scotland. It's not entirely logical. In the next referendum Independentists will be as enthusiastic as ever, but this time they will be up against some very ambivalent Unionists.0
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Cameron wasn't forced to resign at all - he chose to do so with honour. Unlike Corbyn.Mortimer said:
snipJobabob said:
yes, as I thought, you don't understand PLP rules. At least that much is clear from your puffMortimer said:
There are rules, and there are politics. A group of that that cannot solve party rule problems will never get close to winning an electio....Jobabob said:
A response that reveals that you have no grasp of PLP rules.Mortimer said:
For Pete's sake, they're meant to be politicians. If they can't get a useless leader out they won't be able to find the right words to win an election.Jobabob said:
This canard has been done to death on here and elsewhere - it's not possible to eject Corbyn *under PLP rules* --- the rules are utterly insane (although under most analyses were written as such because no-one thought anyone would ever stay on did they fail to command the support of the PLP). By all means attack the rules and rule makers, but suggesting that a botched plot was to blame is just lazy thinking. The problem is the rules, not the plot.Mortimer said:
Oh I'm not a thoughtless cheerleader. There will be storms. But it won't be Labour that take advtange of them. Just read the Jexit chapter of Shipper's book. Labour couldn't even organise the ejection of their hapless leader...John_M said:
I completely disagree. If the reportage is correct, May's Tories absolutely own Brexit now. It's her strategy, and I feel it's incredibly high risk (while fully appreciating the thinking behind it). If I were a Labour supporter, I would be incredibly optimistic about GE20 (if it's even that far out).Mortimer said:
Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.SouthamObserver said:Mortimer said:SouthamObserver said:So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
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Opinium yesterday had Scots backing control of free movement over full single market access by 37% to 36%FF43 said:I was strongly pro the Union in the last IndyRef. If another referendum is held I would expect to vote against independence a second time, but something's broken and it won't be with the same determination. Basically, if I can accept Brexit, I can accept independence for Scotland. It's not entirely logical. In the next referendum Independentists will be as enthusiastic as ever, but this time they will be up against some very ambivalent Unionists.
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And the constant protesting too much from those not used to losing hardens attitudes even more.Fenster said:
I agree..I think Blair was naive about immigration especially..I think the UK is a tolerant and welcoming country but the sheer scale and speed of immigration on his watch hardened attitudes. That and the imposition of the metropolitan liberal left will (anyone raising objections - however reasonable - being labelled a bigot or racist). It pissed people off and it has screwed Labour for a generation. Blairites and flowery liberal Europhiles only exist on Twitter now. I never meet any in real life.Mortimer said:
Not in modern political history.Fenster said:
I'm not having a dig here. But has the liberal left ever been so weak in the UK?Mortimer said:
At least there wasn't some balls about 'time to care'.Scott_P said:@Ed_Miliband: Fairly sure 'Let's give billions more to big business in tax cuts' wasn't on the bus...
10/15 years ago Blair and his EU-supportING government absolutely ruled the roost. Europe ones were widely regarded as minority fanatics.
Now the left is reduced to Farron, a few tweets from Ed Miliband and Martin Freeman.
What the bloody hell happened? This was unthinkable just a decade ago.
The liberal left moved away from the common ground of England. Prosperity masked this until 08, but forcing cultural change on a small c conservative people was overrreach.
From car bumper signs 'Don't blame me, I voted remain', to us PB chatterers who have become fervent Leavers because of the attitudes of those who see even contemplating Leaving as some horrendous form of social disease...0 -
I voted Remain with reservations but personally prefer her to CameronTykejohnno said:Some of the remain critics of Mrs may on pb wanted her as leader,you my friends own Mrs May.
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