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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate UKIP as a 29% chance in Stoke Central. A chance f

SystemSystem Posts: 12,264
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate UKIP as a 29% chance in Stoke Central. A chance for Paul Nuttall?

Punters on Betfair make LAB a 53% chance on Betfair with UKIP at 29%, LD 11% CON 7%. UKIP's Doc Nuttall could fly the purples' flag pic.twitter.com/OsRzxzn028

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    First again?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563
    Two fascinating contests, these by-elections. One might say to Mr Corbyn that to lose one MP is unfortunate, to lose two is careless... How many more are on the lookout for an opportunity?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2017
    I have been trying to lay the Libs in Stoke at 8, 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, & 8.8 to no avail
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2017
    Bigmovers today in Stoke are the Tories.. did anybody nab Stan James' 20s?

    16s looks value if you play against the fair
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,108
    From the last thread:
    glw said:

    Malmesbury said:

    The German response resembles that the Detroit - the reason is simple. A huge amount of engineering, money and staff is invested in engines and transmissions. An electric car means that whole divisions are redundant. These are power centres in these companies. It's the same reason that the film companies resisted digital cameras, despite often having the best technology in digital.

    The accent of the microprocessor ultimately destroyed most of the preexisting computer industry, leaving only IBM and few much reduced and hollowed out companies. I think a similar thing is going to happen to the motor industry over the next decade or so, a lot of household names will not survive the change.
    Exactly - the time to change positions in an industry is during a disruption by new companies. Taking on IBM at mainframes failed many times....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,108
    On topic: Is there any evidence of UKIP investing in improving its ground game? Without an effective organisation they will not be able to translate poll numbers into won seats.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Rolls Royce in ethical foul up.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2017/jan/16/rolls-royce-sfo-criminal-investigation?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    isam said:

    I have been trying to lay the Libs in Stoke at 8, 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, & 8.8 to no avail

    I'm happy to let you lay them with me at 1000 if you like.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited January 2017
    I see the rewriting of history full steam ahead in relation to US election. The phase the Russians hacked the election has been said about a billion times on panorama, when the reality is the wikileaks stuff hardly figured. Far more significant (and backed up with the exit polling) that clinton email scandal was of importance, Podesta's stuff was nowhere.

    If you didn't really follow this stuff from panorama programme you would be forgiven For thinking the Russians hacked into the voting machines.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    SeanT said:

    I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.


    Drink, sex, or posting on PB?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    SeanT said:

    I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.

    Really?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MarkHopkins said:

    SeanT said:

    I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.


    Drink, sex, or posting on PB?

    Not mutually exclusive options!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    SeanT said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    SeanT said:

    I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.


    Drink, sex, or posting on PB?

    Sex
    Sure not all three?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    SeanT said:

    I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.


    Drink, sex, or posting on PB?

    Not mutually exclusive options!
    Certainly not. I find they alloy perfectly.

    Specifically: vintage Pol Roger champagne, mild BDSM sex with 23 year old interns, and vituperative Brexity posts about Alastair Meeks.

    That's the IDEAL mix.
    Who's doing what to whom?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    SeanT said:

    I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.


    Drink, sex, or posting on PB?

    Not mutually exclusive options!
    Certainly not. I find they alloy perfectly.

    Specifically: vintage Pol Roger champagne, mild BDSM sex with 23 year old interns, and vituperative Brexity posts about Alastair Meeks.

    That's the IDEAL mix.
    Please don't get some of those mixed up.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,295
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If you didn't really follow this stuff from panorama programme you would be forgiven For thinking the Russians hacked into the voting machines.

    Whilst I don't care about Donald Trump, I do care about news being reported accurately. Perhaps the BBC feel uninhibited because it's not our country, but it reflects badly on them that they've allowed a sense that the vote was hacked by Russia.

    On a separate but similar note, I notice that the BBC have started saying "the NHS in England." I wonder if they've had complaints about this because it is important to distinguish between the NHS in England which is run by Westminster and the NHS in Wales, Scotland and NI which is run by the devolved administrations.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited January 2017
    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If you didn't really follow this stuff from panorama programme you would be forgiven For thinking the Russians hacked into the voting machines.

    Whilst I don't care about Donald Trump, I do care about news being reported accurately. Perhaps the BBC feel uninhibited because it's not our country, but it reflects badly on them that they've allowed a sense that the vote was hacked by Russia.

    On a separate but similar note, I notice that the BBC have started saying "the NHS in England." I wonder if they've had complaints about this because it is important to distinguish between the NHS in England which is run by Westminster and the NHS in Wales, Scotland and NI which is run by the devolved administrations.
    There is a lot of genuine stuff to really investigate about trump & there is a Russian angle there, but like brexit was because of racists now it is trump because of Russian hacking. While that make guardianistas sleep better at night, the real reasons are more much complex.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    SeanT said:

    I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.


    Drink, sex, or posting on PB?

    Not mutually exclusive options!
    Certainly not. I find they alloy perfectly.

    Specifically: vintage Pol Roger champagne, mild BDSM sex with 23 year old interns, and vituperative Brexity posts about Alastair Meeks.

    That's the IDEAL mix.
    I think Post brexit you have to really like a bit of mild BDSM to continue to enjoy regularly posting on pb!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/821104373044547585
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    SeanT said:

    I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.


    Drink, sex, or posting on PB?

    Not mutually exclusive options!
    Certainly not. I find they alloy perfectly.

    Specifically: vintage Pol Roger champagne, mild BDSM sex with 23 year old interns, and vituperative Brexity posts about Alastair Meeks.

    That's the IDEAL mix.
    I think Post brexit you have to really like a bit of mild BDSM to continue to enjoy regularly posting on pb!
    I hope the young interns enjoy Ever Closer Union ...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    On topic, has this been mentioned

    https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/821031319958388736
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    I have been trying to lay the Libs in Stoke at 8, 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, & 8.8 to no avail

    I'm happy to let you lay them with me at 1000 if you like.
    I'll undercut that. If anyone can match the 50/1 I got with Ladbrokes there's £100+ I'll put on.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rural_voter said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    SeanT said:

    I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.


    Drink, sex, or posting on PB?

    Not mutually exclusive options!
    Certainly not. I find they alloy perfectly.

    Specifically: vintage Pol Roger champagne, mild BDSM sex with 23 year old interns, and vituperative Brexity posts about Alastair Meeks.

    That's the IDEAL mix.
    I think Post brexit you have to really like a bit of mild BDSM to continue to enjoy regularly posting on pb!
    I hope the young interns enjoy Ever Closer Union ...
    They always seem to Brexit fairly quickly.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    SeanT said:

    I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.

    Last I saw you'd been "SIn Binned" on Saturday night! :smiley:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    edited January 2017
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/821104373044547585

    Well that's hardly surprising given Leavers are unhappy about nothing happening and Remainers are just unhappy. ;)
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    Interesting. There are claims that this piece that appeared in the Guardian about 'alt-right' radicalization is a hoax.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/alt-right-online-poison-racist-bigot-sam-harris-milo-yiannopoulos-islamophobia

    When I first read it I assumed it was by some worthy dullard desperate to be published, but upon re-reading the hoax elements do seem to shine through subtly. Clever if it really is a wind up.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Casino_Royale said:

    I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.

    Betting agaist UKIP in FPTP elections has a near 100% success rate.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MikeSmithson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    I have been trying to lay the Libs in Stoke at 8, 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, & 8.8 to no avail

    I'm happy to let you lay them with me at 1000 if you like.
    I'll undercut that. If anyone can match the 50/1 I got with Ladbrokes there's £100+ I'll put on.
    If I get matched at 8ish on Betfair I'll effectively be on at 50/1 net... big if though
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,108
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Interesting. There are claims that this piece that appeared in the Guardian about 'alt-right' radicalization is a hoax.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/alt-right-online-poison-racist-bigot-sam-harris-milo-yiannopoulos-islamophobia

    When I first read it I assumed it was by some worthy dullard desperate to be published, but upon re-reading the hoax elements do seem to shine through subtly. Clever if it really is a wind up.

    CommentIsFree *is* a hoax...

    I mean, we are talking about the place where they published an article blaming the Mumbai terrorist attack on excessive business success in India.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,108
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.

    Betting agaist UKIP in FPTP elections has a near 100% success rate.
    The only *fail* in that strategy was when a sitting MP took a non-trivial amount of his local party organisation with him when he defected. So he actually had a ground game.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/821104373044547585

    Well that's hardly surprising given Leavers are unhappy about nothing happening and Remainers are just unhappy. ;)
    The polls have been showing substantial unhappiness with the Government over Brexit for a long time.

    Doesn't seem to have made much difference to the voting intention numbers though.
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Interesting. There are claims that this piece that appeared in the Guardian about 'alt-right' radicalization is a hoax.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/alt-right-online-poison-racist-bigot-sam-harris-milo-yiannopoulos-islamophobia

    When I first read it I assumed it was by some worthy dullard desperate to be published, but upon re-reading the hoax elements do seem to shine through subtly. Clever if it really is a wind up.

    I seem to recall that someone claimed to be the actual hoaxer, but damned if I can't remember anything else about the case.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Grim has taken the last man to walk on the moon.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    edited January 2017
    Black_Rook said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/821104373044547585

    Well that's hardly surprising given Leavers are unhappy about nothing happening and Remainers are just unhappy. ;)
    The polls have been showing substantial unhappiness with the Government over Brexit for a long time.

    Doesn't seem to have made much difference to the voting intention numbers though.
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Interesting. There are claims that this piece that appeared in the Guardian about 'alt-right' radicalization is a hoax.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/alt-right-online-poison-racist-bigot-sam-harris-milo-yiannopoulos-islamophobia

    When I first read it I assumed it was by some worthy dullard desperate to be published, but upon re-reading the hoax elements do seem to shine through subtly. Clever if it really is a wind up.

    I seem to recall that someone claimed to be the actual hoaxer, but damned if I can't remember anything else about the case.
    This guy here is claiming authorship.

    https://twitter.com/GodfreyElfwick/status/803687334482939904

    But presumably if the Guardian was doubtful about its veracity they'd have taken it down by now, so who knows?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Malmesbury said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.

    Betting agaist UKIP in FPTP elections has a near 100% success rate.
    The only *fail* in that strategy was when a sitting MP took a non-trivial amount of his local party organisation with him when he defected. So he actually had a ground game.
    Even then in 2015 he lost a lot of his majority.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/821110002589073413
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Turks claim they had finally got the shooter from new year's eve.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,548
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Grim has taken the last man to walk on the moon.

    What a time it was, a time of confidences: when such things happened.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,548
    Casino_Royale said:

    I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.

    do you mean from voters or punters?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Storyville on BBC4 is a fascinating story how US and Israeli cyber spooks inserted malware into Iranian computurs working on their nuclear programme. Well worth catching up.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,548
    Seems George 'cat feeding' Galloway has demanded that he be allowed to stand in Stoke for Labour.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Storyville on BBC4 is a fascinating story how US and Israeli cyber spooks inserted malware into Iranian computurs working on their nuclear programme. Well worth catching up.

    There have been a number of good docs on this. I don't know if the bbc4 is a rebroadcast of this or not, but this is the best one I have seen.

    http://m.imdb.com/title/tt5446858/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/821112860281569280
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Casino_Royale said:

    I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.

    Indeed, UKIP have a low demographic ceiling here even before you take into account other factors.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/821112860281569280

    Even God only had ten.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    Scott_P said:

    This year's Eurovision entry looks like a flop.

    Le Royaume-Uni: Nul points.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Milliband (pbuh) only had 6
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    brokenwheel said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.

    Indeed, UKIP have a low demographic ceiling here even before you take into account other factors.
    If that is so, & I'm not disputing it, labour 4/5 is insane
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/821112860281569280

    Even God only had ten.
    But Ed Miliband only had 6 carved in stone.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32580534
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    rottenborough said:

    Seems George 'cat feeding' Galloway has demanded that he be allowed to stand in Stoke for Labour.

    Fat. Chance. You have to be a current member of 6 months' standing before you're even eligible.
  • paulbarkerpaulbarker Posts: 77
    On topic.
    Its a chance for Bookies to make more money out of gullible punters. UKIP are a busted flush.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/821117391946084354
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited January 2017
    isam said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.

    Indeed, UKIP have a low demographic ceiling here even before you take into account other factors.
    If that is so, & I'm not disputing it, labour 4/5 is insane
    Central Stoke includes most of the Staffs Uni student accomodation, and is where the station with direct connection to London is. Oh and it includes most of the town of Hanley, which is a third Muslim. It's the worst Stoke seat for UKIP.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    I thought May's plan for Brexit was not to tell anyone what her plan was?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/821117209477054464
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/821118019795648512
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited January 2017
    Glad to see someone in the Tory party knows how to negotiate.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    missed the last thread - I see Lib Dems have gone from 6% to 11% in a year with Yougov. That has got to be outside MoE. Ditto UKIP going in the other direction.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited January 2017
    Have Nissan been on the phone?

    @faisalislam: My understanding: tho out of ECJ jurisdiction, & so Single Market formal membership, Customs Union language in May speech less concrete 1/2

    @faisalislam: ...Irish border and auto biz concerns about customs union exit, and repeated indications that PM/ Davis do not see it as a "binary issue"
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Oh, and the three people I've spoken to who know Stoke see Labour as losers. None could call the winners, though. I'm on the Tories.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    MrsB said:

    missed the last thread - I see Lib Dems have gone from 6% to 11% in a year with Yougov. That has got to be outside MoE. Ditto UKIP going in the other direction.

    Lib Dems 2015 Kipper crutch?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    So we are getting a running commentary after all.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BethRigby: May expected to confirm exit from the single market - but source told me the matter of exiting customs union 'more complicated...' #Brexit twitter.com/skynews/status…
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    https://twitter.com/AcademiaObscura/status/820994552169373697
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So we are getting a running commentary after all.

    @ProfChalmers: Why on earth does No 10 appear to be briefing that Theresa May won't say the UK will leave the customs union but definitely means we will?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Scott_P said:

    Have Nissan been on the phone?

    @faisalislam: My understanding: tho out of ECJ jurisdiction, & so Single Market formal membership, Customs Union language in May speech less concrete 1/2

    Hope Rolls Royce have not having to pay 671 milion over bribery claims.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So we are getting a running commentary after all.

    You just can't please some people... :D
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    SouthamObserver said:

    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

    Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    brokenwheel said:

    isam said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.

    Indeed, UKIP have a low demographic ceiling here even before you take into account other factors.
    If that is so, & I'm not disputing it, labour 4/5 is insane
    Central Stoke includes most of the Staffs Uni student accomodation, and is where the station with direct connection to London is. Oh and it includes most of the town of Hanley, which is a third Muslim. It's the worst Stoke seat for UKIP.
    Yes and no. It has bigger anti-UKIP pools of voters as you suggest, but the pro-UKIP vote is stronger here too. It's more anti-Tory too, so it's much easier for UKIP to claim to be the real opposition (as things stand I'd expect the Tories to win SOT South in a hypothetical 2017 election, and North would be a close, possibly 3-way, contest; though Ruth Smeeth would probably hang on).

    (NB those taking the train to commute to London are mostly not living in Stoke-on-Trent Central!)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So we are getting a running commentary after all.

    You just can't please some people... :D
    Normally I'm easily pleased by Tory PMs, Thatcher, Major, and Cameron did things that cheered me up.

    The pound shop Gordon Brown, less so.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SouthamObserver said:

    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

    May promised getting Immigration to the tens of thousands that is her major concern it seems.She knows immigration won the referendum and she thinks it will win her any vote after we leave the EU.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mortimer said:

    Glad to see someone in the Tory party knows how to negotiate.

    Turns out Brexit means Brexit - remoaners too busy hanging off Mandy's every word...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    Mortimer said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

    Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...

    Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-D

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SouthamObserver said:

    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

    So the liberal elite get replaced by the iliberal elite. Dark days are coming.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/daniel-hannan-afraid-hard-brexit/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    If May anticipates a very big constitutional struggle to get A50 invoked, this is exactly the political positioning she would take to head off any threat of UKIP gaining ground.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    SouthamObserver said:

    Mortimer said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

    Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...

    Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-D

    Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,490
    SouthamObserver said:

    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

    I don't see how she can possibly do any of the things she said she would do in her speech when she became PM if she pursues Brexit in this way.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    If I were the BBC/Sky, as Mrs May gives her speech, they should have a live ticker on Sterling on screen as well
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.

    So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Cyclefree said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

    I don't see how she can possibly do any of the things she said she would do in her speech when she became PM if she pursues Brexit in this way.
    Has she had a secret cabinet reshuffle and taken on Redwood, Cash, Bone, Mogg and IDS?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    SeanT said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

    This is the only way to "negotiate" with Europe. De Gaulle's empty chair.

    It's debating tactics adult learning centre course A. You must be prepared to walk away with the "worst deal" for all.
    Mortimer's PB rule No. 1 - if a strategy angers the remainers is is almost certainly a winning one.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    Mortimer said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Mortimer said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

    Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...

    Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-D

    Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.

    Yep, the British people are just longing for further public spending cuts, lower wages growth and increased job insecurity. :-D

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2017
    Stopping free movement of cheap labour is Christmas come early for low paid British workers. It's so simple that clever people refuse to believe it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.

    So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.

    WJC will be delighted - another excuse to distract from her disastrous performance in government.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    Stopping free movement of cheap labour is Christmas come early for low paid British workers. It's so simple that clever people refuse to believe it.

    It is pretty good for us high paid workers too, agency locum rates will skyrocket!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    edited January 2017
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.

    So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.

    WJC will be delighted - another excuse to distract from her disastrous performance in government.
    WJC ?

    If it is something that will give me nightmares, don't tell me, as I'm headed for bed now.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited January 2017
    SouthamObserver said:

    Mortimer said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Mortimer said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

    Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...

    Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-D

    Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.

    Yep, the British people are just longing for further public spending cuts, lower wages growth and increased job insecurity. :-D

    Not sure what you're talking about. But all I hear is thaat the common ground are sick of condescendion from the people who benefit most and want ever-cheaper Lattes.

    The common ground can also see that negotiation requires a hard nose.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    Yorkcity said:

    Scott_P said:

    Have Nissan been on the phone?

    @faisalislam: My understanding: tho out of ECJ jurisdiction, & so Single Market formal membership, Customs Union language in May speech less concrete 1/2

    Hope Rolls Royce have not having to pay 671 milion over bribery claims.
    That is to the US and the Brazilians, nothing to do with Europe
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    *cough*Nissan*cough*

    https://twitter.com/lindayueh/status/821123450056179713
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Mortimer said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Mortimer said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

    Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...

    Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-D

    Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.
    I completely disagree. If the reportage is correct, May's Tories absolutely own Brexit now. It's her strategy, and I feel it's incredibly high risk (while fully appreciating the thinking behind it). If I were a Labour supporter, I would be incredibly optimistic about GE20 (if it's even that far out).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,886
    edited January 2017
    SeanT said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

    This is the only way to "negotiate" with Europe. De Gaulle's empty chair.

    It's debating tactics adult learning centre course A. You must be prepared to walk away with the "worst deal" for all.
    Saying you're prepared to walk away, and being prepared to walk away are two very different things.

    May will have to hold this line through a lot of political and economic turbulence over the next 2 years. Can she do it? I don't think so.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.

    So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.

    WJC will be delighted - another excuse to distract from her disastrous performance in government.
    WJC ?

    If it is something that will give me nightmares, don't tell me, as I'm headed for bed now.
    Wee Jimmy Crankie?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    isam said:

    Stopping free movement of cheap labour is Christmas come early for low paid British workers. It's so simple that clever people refuse to believe it.

    How? Which jobs will see wages rise? We are going to be competing with low wage economies for investment.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.

    So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.

    WJC will be delighted - another excuse to distract from her disastrous performance in government.
    WJC ?

    If it is something that will give me nightmares, don't tell me, as I'm headed for bed now.
    Nah a typo - Krankie is with a K.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    williamglenn said:

    If May anticipates a very big constitutional struggle to get A50 invoked, this is exactly the political positioning she would take to head off any threat of UKIP gaining ground.

    I agree Farage and Nuttall surely can not ask for more.May is leaving no room for them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.

    So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.

    WJC will be delighted - another excuse to distract from her disastrous performance in government.
    WJC ?

    If it is something that will give me nightmares, don't tell me, as I'm headed for bed now.
    Wee Jimmy Crankie?
    But I thought you spelled it Krankie.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,490
    Mortimer said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Mortimer said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

    Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...

    Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-D

    Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.
    Depends what you mean by "mass welfarism".

    May was making a speech recently about mental health. If one area of the NHS needs extra resources it is this. No-one who hasn't lived with someone suffering from mental illness can have any idea of how awful it is, not just for the sufferer but for those around them.

    And yet getting help, getting the right help is a lucky dip with the odds stacked against you. Providing help to those in this desperately vulnerable position, to their carers, to families who fear the premature death of those in the grip of despair and illness is not toxic.

    It is unfashionable but not toxic. When you need help you realise how callous it can sound to say that welfare is something ghastly to be got rid of just so that we can, well, what, exactly?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.

    So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.

    WJC will be delighted - another excuse to distract from her disastrous performance in government.
    WJC ?

    If it is something that will give me nightmares, don't tell me, as I'm headed for bed now.
    Nah a typo - Krankie is with a K.
    Too late, I'm now remembering that the Krankies were swingers.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/libdemlife/status/820908957522886656
This discussion has been closed.