politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate UKIP as a 29% chance in Stoke Central. A chance f

Two fascinating contests, these by-elections. One might say to Mr Corbyn that to lose one MP is unfortunate, to lose two is careless... How many more are on the lookout for an opportunity?

Bigmovers today in Stoke are the Tories.. did anybody nab Stan James' 20s?

16s looks value if you play against the fair

On topic: Is there any evidence of UKIP investing in improving its ground game? Without an effective organisation they will not be able to translate poll numbers into won seats.

isam said:

I have been trying to lay the Libs in Stoke at 8, 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, & 8.8 to no avail

I'm happy to let you lay them with me at 1000 if you like.

SeanT said:

I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.

Drink, sex, or posting on PB?

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.

Drink, sex, or posting on PB?

Not mutually exclusive options!

SeanT said:

Charles said:

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.

Drink, sex, or posting on PB?

Not mutually exclusive options!

Certainly not. I find they alloy perfectly.

Specifically: vintage Pol Roger champagne, mild BDSM sex with 23 year old interns, and vituperative Brexity posts about Alastair Meeks.

That's the IDEAL mix.

Who's doing what to whom?

FrancisUrquhart said:

If you didn't really follow this stuff from panorama programme you would be forgiven For thinking the Russians hacked into the voting machines.

Whilst I don't care about Donald Trump, I do care about news being reported accurately. Perhaps the BBC feel uninhibited because it's not our country, but it reflects badly on them that they've allowed a sense that the vote was hacked by Russia.

On a separate but similar note, I notice that the BBC have started saying "the NHS in England." I wonder if they've had complaints about this because it is important to distinguish between the NHS in England which is run by Westminster and the NHS in Wales, Scotland and NI which is run by the devolved administrations.

SeanT said:

Charles said:

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.

Drink, sex, or posting on PB?

Not mutually exclusive options!

Certainly not. I find they alloy perfectly.

Specifically: vintage Pol Roger champagne, mild BDSM sex with 23 year old interns, and vituperative Brexity posts about Alastair Meeks.

That's the IDEAL mix.

I think Post brexit you have to really like a bit of mild BDSM to continue to enjoy regularly posting on pb!

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Charles said:

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.

Drink, sex, or posting on PB?

Not mutually exclusive options!

Certainly not. I find they alloy perfectly.

Specifically: vintage Pol Roger champagne, mild BDSM sex with 23 year old interns, and vituperative Brexity posts about Alastair Meeks.

That's the IDEAL mix.

I think Post brexit you have to really like a bit of mild BDSM to continue to enjoy regularly posting on pb!

I hope the young interns enjoy Ever Closer Union ...

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

I have been trying to lay the Libs in Stoke at 8, 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, & 8.8 to no avail

I'm happy to let you lay them with me at 1000 if you like.

I'll undercut that. If anyone can match the 50/1 I got with Ladbrokes there's £100+ I'll put on.

SeanT said:

I am evincing signs of addictive behaviour.

Last I saw you'd been "SIn Binned" on Saturday night!

Interesting. There are claims that this piece that appeared in the Guardian about 'alt-right' radicalization is a hoax.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/alt-right-online-poison-racist-bigot-sam-harris-milo-yiannopoulos-islamophobia

When I first read it I assumed it was by some worthy dullard desperate to be published, but upon re-reading the hoax elements do seem to shine through subtly. Clever if it really is a wind up.

Casino_Royale said:

I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.

Betting agaist UKIP in FPTP elections has a near 100% success rate.

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. There are claims that this piece that appeared in the Guardian about 'alt-right' radicalization is a hoax.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/alt-right-online-poison-racist-bigot-sam-harris-milo-yiannopoulos-islamophobia

When I first read it I assumed it was by some worthy dullard desperate to be published, but upon re-reading the hoax elements do seem to shine through subtly. Clever if it really is a wind up.

CommentIsFree *is* a hoax...

I mean, we are talking about the place where they published an article blaming the Mumbai terrorist attack on excessive business success in India.

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/821104373044547585

Well that's hardly surprising given Leavers are unhappy about nothing happening and Remainers are just unhappy.

The polls have been showing substantial unhappiness with the Government over Brexit for a long time.

Doesn't seem to have made much difference to the voting intention numbers though.

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. There are claims that this piece that appeared in the Guardian about 'alt-right' radicalization is a hoax.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/alt-right-online-poison-racist-bigot-sam-harris-milo-yiannopoulos-islamophobia

When I first read it I assumed it was by some worthy dullard desperate to be published, but upon re-reading the hoax elements do seem to shine through subtly. Clever if it really is a wind up.

I seem to recall that someone claimed to be the actual hoaxer, but damned if I can't remember anything else about the case.

Black_Rook said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/821104373044547585

Well that's hardly surprising given Leavers are unhappy about nothing happening and Remainers are just unhappy.

The polls have been showing substantial unhappiness with the Government over Brexit for a long time.

Doesn't seem to have made much difference to the voting intention numbers though.

Stark_Dawning said:

Interesting. There are claims that this piece that appeared in the Guardian about 'alt-right' radicalization is a hoax.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/alt-right-online-poison-racist-bigot-sam-harris-milo-yiannopoulos-islamophobia

When I first read it I assumed it was by some worthy dullard desperate to be published, but upon re-reading the hoax elements do seem to shine through subtly. Clever if it really is a wind up.

I seem to recall that someone claimed to be the actual hoaxer, but damned if I can't remember anything else about the case.

This guy here is claiming authorship.

https://twitter.com/GodfreyElfwick/status/803687334482939904

But presumably if the Guardian was doubtful about its veracity they'd have taken it down by now, so who knows?

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/821110002589073413

FrancisUrquhart said:

Grim has taken the last man to walk on the moon.

What a time it was, a time of confidences: when such things happened.

Storyville on BBC4 is a fascinating story how US and Israeli cyber spooks inserted malware into Iranian computurs working on their nuclear programme. Well worth catching up.

foxinsoxuk said:

Storyville on BBC4 is a fascinating story how US and Israeli cyber spooks inserted malware into Iranian computurs working on their nuclear programme. Well worth catching up.

There have been a number of good docs on this. I don't know if the bbc4 is a rebroadcast of this or not, but this is the best one I have seen.

http://m.imdb.com/title/tt5446858/

Casino_Royale said:

I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.

Indeed, UKIP have a low demographic ceiling here even before you take into account other factors.

Scott_P said:

This year's Eurovision entry looks like a flop.

Le Royaume-Uni: Nul points.

brokenwheel said:

Casino_Royale said:

I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.

Indeed, UKIP have a low demographic ceiling here even before you take into account other factors.

If that is so, & I'm not disputing it, labour 4/5 is insane

rottenborough said:

Seems George 'cat feeding' Galloway has demanded that he be allowed to stand in Stoke for Labour.

Fat. Chance. You have to be a current member of 6 months' standing before you're even eligible.

https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/821117391946084354

So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/821117209477054464

Glad to see someone in the Tory party knows how to negotiate.

Have Nissan been on the phone?

@faisalislam: My understanding: tho out of ECJ jurisdiction, & so Single Market formal membership, Customs Union language in May speech less concrete 1/2

@faisalislam: ...Irish border and auto biz concerns about customs union exit, and repeated indications that PM/ Davis do not see it as a "binary issue"

MrsB said:

missed the last thread - I see Lib Dems have gone from 6% to 11% in a year with Yougov. That has got to be outside MoE. Ditto UKIP going in the other direction.

Lib Dems 2015 Kipper crutch?

@BethRigby: May expected to confirm exit from the single market - but source told me the matter of exiting customs union 'more complicated...' #Brexit twitter.com/skynews/status…

TheScreamingEagles said:

So we are getting a running commentary after all.

@ProfChalmers: Why on earth does No 10 appear to be briefing that Theresa May won't say the UK will leave the customs union but definitely means we will?

TheScreamingEagles said:

So we are getting a running commentary after all.

You just can't please some people...

brokenwheel said:

isam said:

brokenwheel said:

Casino_Royale said:

I totally fail to understand the appetite for UKIP in Stoke Central.

Indeed, UKIP have a low demographic ceiling here even before you take into account other factors.

If that is so, & I'm not disputing it, labour 4/5 is insane

Central Stoke includes most of the Staffs Uni student accomodation, and is where the station with direct connection to London is. Oh and it includes most of the town of Hanley, which is a third Muslim. It's the worst Stoke seat for UKIP.

Yes and no. It has bigger anti-UKIP pools of voters as you suggest, but the pro-UKIP vote is stronger here too. It's more anti-Tory too, so it's much easier for UKIP to claim to be the real opposition (as things stand I'd expect the Tories to win SOT South in a hypothetical 2017 election, and North would be a close, possibly 3-way, contest; though Ruth Smeeth would probably hang on).

(NB those taking the train to commute to London are mostly not living in Stoke-on-Trent Central!)

SouthamObserver said:

So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

May promised getting Immigration to the tens of thousands that is her major concern it seems.She knows immigration won the referendum and she thinks it will win her any vote after we leave the EU.

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...

Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-D

If May anticipates a very big constitutional struggle to get A50 invoked, this is exactly the political positioning she would take to head off any threat of UKIP gaining ground.

SouthamObserver said:

So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

I don't see how she can possibly do any of the things she said she would do in her speech when she became PM if she pursues Brexit in this way.

The other aspect to this is Mrs May is crossing Nicola Sturgeon's red line.

So over to you Mrs Sturgeon.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

This is the only way to "negotiate" with Europe. De Gaulle's empty chair.

It's debating tactics adult learning centre course A. You must be prepared to walk away with the "worst deal" for all.

Mortimer's PB rule No. 1 - if a strategy angers the remainers is is almost certainly a winning one.

Stopping free movement of cheap labour is Christmas come early for low paid British workers. It's so simple that clever people refuse to believe it.

isam said:

Stopping free movement of cheap labour is Christmas come early for low paid British workers. It's so simple that clever people refuse to believe it.

It is pretty good for us high paid workers too, agency locum rates will skyrocket!

SouthamObserver said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...

Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-D

Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.

Yep, the British people are just longing for further public spending cuts, lower wages growth and increased job insecurity. :-D

Not sure what you're talking about. But all I hear is thaat the common ground are sick of condescendion from the people who benefit most and want ever-cheaper Lattes.

The common ground can also see that negotiation requires a hard nose.

*cough*Nissan*cough*

https://twitter.com/lindayueh/status/821123450056179713

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

This is the only way to "negotiate" with Europe. De Gaulle's empty chair.

It's debating tactics adult learning centre course A. You must be prepared to walk away with the "worst deal" for all.

Saying you're prepared to walk away, and being prepared to walk away are two very different things.

May will have to hold this line through a lot of political and economic turbulence over the next 2 years. Can she do it? I don't think so.

isam said:

Stopping free movement of cheap labour is Christmas come early for low paid British workers. It's so simple that clever people refuse to believe it.

How? Which jobs will see wages rise? We are going to be competing with low wage economies for investment.

williamglenn said:

If May anticipates a very big constitutional struggle to get A50 invoked, this is exactly the political positioning she would take to head off any threat of UKIP gaining ground.

I agree Farage and Nuttall surely can not ask for more.May is leaving no room for them.

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

So May is to give swivel-eyed Tory Europhobes all their Christmases at once tomorrow by firing the starting gun for the race to the bottom. Those forgotten and left behind are going to see public services cut, greater job insecurity and lower wages. Essentially, the complete opposite of what they were promised.

Unless and until you see that being pro mass migration with all the cultural, economic and welfare state impacts that come with it is akin to political extremism in England, you'll fail to understand the views of th average general election voter...

Yeah, right. It's not as if the Tory right have always wanted to cut public spending, reduce employment rights and compete globally on the basis of low wages. :-D

Mass migration is toxic, mass welfarism is close to it too. Brown's clientelist experiment is over - and with it the Labour Party's prospects.

Depends what you mean by "mass welfarism".

May was making a speech recently about mental health. If one area of the NHS needs extra resources it is this. No-one who hasn't lived with someone suffering from mental illness can have any idea of how awful it is, not just for the sufferer but for those around them.

And yet getting help, getting the right help is a lucky dip with the odds stacked against you. Providing help to those in this desperately vulnerable position, to their carers, to families who fear the premature death of those in the grip of despair and illness is not toxic.

It is unfashionable but not toxic. When you need help you realise how callous it can sound to say that welfare is something ghastly to be got rid of just so that we can, well, what, exactly?

https://twitter.com/libdemlife/status/820908957522886656