politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Matthew Shaddick: Why the betting markets are over-rating Mari
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There were both internationalists and isolationists on either side of the EU debate. Nigel Farage and Dan Hannan, for example.The_Apocalypse said:
I think many Remainers would argue the opposite.MarkHopkins said:The_Apocalypse said:@AlsoIndigo
I actually agree with you re the community. Funnily enough, I think May talked about community a lot in her NYE message - and I liked that even though I've gone off her more recently.
I think it's also true that left/right divide has become less sharp in the last few decades or so. In this country on matters such as sexuality, and women's rights there seems to be a consensus. Social conservatism in this country seems to be nowhere near as divisive as it is in America. I'm on the centre-left but even I can appreciate the stability that family/marriage etc brings to society, although I believe that only people who really want children and are committed to family life should actually start a family. If they can't then it's better to be just married/single/cohabiting. Social conservatism in this country also isn't obsessed with abortion and it isn't about trying to tell people how to live their lives.
I wouldn't even say there's an economic divide because it appears that on the economy the left has literally run out of ideas anyway.
I was watching Newsnight a few weeks ago, and they were saying they think the big divide is internationalist and isolationist. Looking at Trump, and Brexit and now the upcoming elections across Europe I'm inclined to think that.
@Sean_F I think it's true that of the young people who are politically engaged, a lot of them are to left. But I think that's the thing: most young people aren't politically engaged.
"the big divide is internationalist and isolationist"
The Leavers are internationalist, so that makes the Remainers isolationist...0 -
RIP Anthony King one of the great authorities on British politics0
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In which specifics has the story changed?williamglenn said:
Then why do they keep editing the story to add caveats and cover themselves:SouthamObserver said:
CNN ran with a story that was true and which has been confirmed to be true.weejonnie said:
Too many people in the media run with stories because they hope that they are true and want to believe them or hope that merely with running with stories portraying someone as being a pervert will help their cause: 'McAlpine' anyone?PlatoSaid said:
I've not seen many running to defend CNN or Buzzfeed - it's a hot mess neither should've touched.Pulpstar said:
I think it is Buzzfeed and CNN that lost touch with Reality yesterday anyway. 45 minutes to piss on the president-elect.david_herdson said:
I'd agree with you if Trump does just prove to be "slightly nutty but erratic and ... fairly ineffectual". The problem is if he seems to be completely losing touch with reality and proportion and showing severe signs of paranoia. He's already starting some way down that road.AlsoIndigo said:
I was speculating whether Senators and Congressmen might ultimately stay their hand if they have a slightly nutty but erratic and potentially fairly ineffectual President Trump, who would be replaced by a focused, coherent, politically adept, and supposedly dangerously clever hard-right alternative in Pence (who would then probably bring in Cruz as his hatchet man).david_herdson said:The question is whether it might be necessary (though I do accept your tactical thinking of President Frying-Pan having run with Vice-President Fire).
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/10/politics/donald-trump-intelligence-report-russia/0 -
They want to be prime minister?TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would anyone choose to go to Oxford Uni is beyond me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Apparently some twat from Oxford university made a complaint, claiming it was a hate crime, which the police have a legal duty to investigate & they said no it wasn't, but recorded it as a "non-crime hate incidenPlatoSaid said:FFS - I really don't like her, but this is absurd
Danny Shaw
West Midlands Police confirm Amber Rudd's speech to Conservative Party conference in Birmingham treated as a "hate incident"...
Whole thing makes a mockery of when some one is actually beaten up just cos they are black, white, Jew, Muslim etc.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/01/05/a-measure-of-the-anti-elite-backlash-will-be-when-when-a-non-dark-blue-educated-leader-becomes-a-ge-winner/0 -
I think it's because of the sheer amount in the US. There are apparently 11 million illegals. The task force that would be required to literally deport all of those people. It's probably far easier to just try to organise some way they can become legal citizens.Sean_F said:
Unusually, immigration is one area where British (and most European) public opinion is well to the right of US. Amnesties for illegal immigrants and Sanctuary Cities would be fringe positions on this side of the Atlantic.The_Apocalypse said:
The main divide seems to be immigration.Sean_F said:
There is a social conservative/social liberal divide in this country, but it divides over different issues to the USA.The_Apocalypse said:@AlsoIndigo
I actually agree with you re the community. Funnily enough, I think May talked about community a lot in her NYE message - and I liked that even though I've gone off her more recently.
I think it's also true that left/right divide has become less sharp in the last few decades or so. In this country on matters such as sexuality, and women's rights there seems to be a consensus. Social conservatism in this country seems to be nowhere near as divisive as it is in America. I'm on the centre-left but even I can appreciate the stability that family/marriage etc brings to society, although I believe that only people who really want children and are committed to family life should actually start a family. If they can't then it's better to be just married/single/cohabiting. Social conservatism in this country also isn't obsessed with abortion and it isn't about trying to tell people how to live their lives.
I wouldn't even say there's an economic divide because it appears that on the economy the left has literally run out of ideas anyway.
I was watching Newsnight a few weeks ago, and they were saying they think the big divide is internationalist and isolationist. Looking at Trump, and Brexit and now the upcoming elections across Europe I'm inclined to think that.
@Sean_F I think it's true that of the young people who are politically engaged, a lot of them are to left. But I think that's the thing: most young people aren't politically engaged.0 -
and thats despite much higher non white population (or because of it) or maybe because almost everyone there are immigrants.Sean_F said:
Unusually, immigration is one area where British (and most European) public opinion is well to the right of US. Amnesties for illegal immigrants and Sanctuary Cities would be fringe positions on this side of the Atlantic.The_Apocalypse said:
The main divide seems to be immigration.Sean_F said:
There is a social conservative/social liberal divide in this country, but it divides over different issues to the USA.The_Apocalypse said:@AlsoIndigo
I actually agree with you re the community. Funnily enough, I think May talked about community a lot in her NYE message - and I liked that even though I've gone off her more recently.
I think it's also true that left/right divide has become less sharp in the last few decades or so. In this country on matters such as sexuality, and women's rights there seems to be a consensus. Social conservatism in this country seems to be nowhere near as divisive as it is in America. I'm on the centre-left but even I can appreciate the stability that family/marriage etc brings to society, although I believe that only people who really want children and are committed to family life should actually start a family. If they can't then it's better to be just married/single/cohabiting. Social conservatism in this country also isn't obsessed with abortion and it isn't about trying to tell people how to live their lives.
I wouldn't even say there's an economic divide because it appears that on the economy the left has literally run out of ideas anyway.
I was watching Newsnight a few weeks ago, and they were saying they think the big divide is internationalist and isolationist. Looking at Trump, and Brexit and now the upcoming elections across Europe I'm inclined to think that.
@Sean_F I think it's true that of the young people who are politically engaged, a lot of them are to left. But I think that's the thing: most young people aren't politically engaged.0 -
Because that's what happens with rolling news stories.williamglenn said:
Then why do they keep editing the story to add caveats and cover themselves:SouthamObserver said:
CNN ran with a story that was true and which has been confirmed to be true.weejonnie said:
Too many people in the media run with stories because they hope that they are true and want to believe them or hope that merely with running with stories portraying someone as being a pervert will help their cause: 'McAlpine' anyone?PlatoSaid said:
I've not seen many running to defend CNN or Buzzfeed - it's a hot mess neither should've touched.Pulpstar said:
I think it is Buzzfeed and CNN that lost touch with Reality yesterday anyway. 45 minutes to piss on the president-elect.david_herdson said:
I'd agree with you if Trump does just prove to be "slightly nutty but erratic and ... fairly ineffectual". The problem is if he seems to be completely losing touch with reality and proportion and showing severe signs of paranoia. He's already starting some way down that road.AlsoIndigo said:
I was speculating whether Senators and Congressmen might ultimately stay their hand if they have a slightly nutty but erratic and potentially fairly ineffectual President Trump, who would be replaced by a focused, coherent, politically adept, and supposedly dangerously clever hard-right alternative in Pence (who would then probably bring in Cruz as his hatchet man).david_herdson said:The question is whether it might be necessary (though I do accept your tactical thinking of President Frying-Pan having run with Vice-President Fire).
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/10/politics/donald-trump-intelligence-report-russia/
I remember a few weeks back lots of news outlets reporting that the bloke who committed the Munich Xmas market atrocity entered Germany as a refugee from Syria when Merkel opened the borders. The news developed, they rewrote.
CNN reported that Trump had received a briefing that there were credible claims about the existence of compromising material about him. That was and is true. They did not report that the claims were credible, just that security services thought they might be.
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+1 Absolutely. I'm in a similar position, trying to get UK residence for a non-EU wife, when moving back to the UK from abroad is pretty much impossible.AlsoIndigo said:
There is something in that, but even that needs a closer look.The_Apocalypse said:I was watching Newsnight a few weeks ago, and they were saying they think the big divide is internationalist and isolationist. Looking at Trump, and Brexit and now the upcoming elections across Europe I'm inclined to think that.
A fair chunk of Leavers, probably including most of "ethnic" leavers wanted a level playing field between EU and non-EU immigrants, which would be selected on the basis of utility to the country rather than country of birth. I am a white male British citizen (yes, I am sorry) with strong ties in the poorer parts of Asia, and I fit in this category. I know lots of very able people who would be of great benefit to the UK, but cant get a visa because the application costs are too high and the chances of being granted are too low to risk it, whereas their, say, Bulgarian equivalent just walks across the border. A lot of the left call themselves internationalists, but really mean fellowship with the bits of Europe that are culturally and economically similar to the UK, and have no real answer about the wider world, except for the open borders idiots.
Easiest way is to 'buy' a passport from somewhere like Bulgaria, where a passport office official is paid €100 a week.0 -
TSE and OGH dislike May and Corbyn and backed Remain so ideologically are not that distinct. A few more pro May or pro Corbyn pieces would be good as well as some pro Brexit ones to match the ones of Meeks for Remain. PB thread headers are normally well written but a bit more variety would be goodDecrepitJohnL said:
Most of the thread headers are written by TSE, who is a card-carrying Conservative, or by OGH who is a Lib-Dem who are centrist or on the right based on their coalition with the Conservatives 2010 to 2015.isam said:
Observation, not a criticism here...SouthamObserver said:I don't think this site has moved to the right. Instead, some who were always very right-wing have become a lot more open about it. I'd say that PB's default is solidly centre-right. But it always has been for as long as I have been on here (first post in 2008). That's a good thing. It's healthy to be exposed to ideas that you do not agree with and to test your own. Only fools stop reading, watching or listening to things because they do not reinforce opinions they already hold.
David Herdson writes one header per week. He is a Tory, I cant remember if he was a Leaver or Remainer. Almost all the other threads are written by left wingers who can be classed as Hardened Remainers.
Take a look at any thread from a year ago and note the political persuasions of those with "User Banned, Please Carry On" as their avatars. They are almost all Kippers (The Nats were already banned). There are also three people in PB Guantanemo Bay, ie not banned but unable to post, who are all outspoken Leavers.
Not complaining, just pointing out how it is. To say this site is Right Wing is so far fetched as to be madness. It is generally centre left/pro EU
You have perhaps fallen into the trap of conflating two groups you dislike, Remainers and Lefties. They are not the same. Ask Jeremy Corbyn or Ken Clarke.0 -
It's been reported that the summary that was briefed to Trump categorised the dossier as an example of 'unvetted disinformation', so if a story reported that the security services thought they were credible that is false.SouthamObserver said:CNN reported that Trump had received a briefing that there were credible claims about the existence of compromising material about him. That was and is true. They did not report that the claims were credible, just that security services thought they might be.
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The LDs will target the 38% that voted leave and those leavers who do not want a hard brexit. I am sure the LD by election campaign team will be well funded, vigorous and supported by a multitude of enthusiastic supporters from all over the UK. I think realistically 20% is possible for Rebecca Hanson but I repeat a win is not impossible with the aid of LD favourable national events.david_herdson said:
What 'forthcoming national events'? The triggering (or not, possibly), of Article 50? I don't see why that should help the Lib Dems to by-election winning scores in a seat that was comfortably Leave. It could help the Lib Dems rise nationally from single figures to low teens but it's a niche position. Also, Olney had the advantage of being the main challenger to Goldsmith. By contrast, the Lib Dems start in fourth in Copeland, having lost their deposit last time. Appealing to Labour voters to back her in order to 'stop the Tories' (or - or even and - to appeal to Tories to vote Lib Dem to stop Corbyn), will look absurd.Goupillon said:The LDs have now selected their candidate for Copeland. Can she do an "Olney" - not impossible as forthcoming national events might help the LDs.
http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/other/Liberal-Democrats-announce-candidate-for-Copeland-by-election-05ba68d6-c599-439b-8d54-27d50900eaab-ds
As an aside, what's with the necklace in the photo in the article linked to?0 -
Mika is a favourite of mine - her body language is totally transparent - she's fair and very conscious of journalistic integrity.nunu said:Joe and Mika hit the nail on the head again, Trump has won again because no one is focusing on policy or the confirmation hearings:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1I9z9U4cus0 -
That is what I said yesterday....nobody is talking about keeping his companies means he still has conflict of interest issues, instead it is all about if cnn / buzzfeed did the right thing & if they are fake news. The MSM don't seem to be learning to ignore the trump insults.nunu said:Joe and Mika hit the nail on the head again, Trump has won again because no one is focusing on policy or the confirmation hearings:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1I9z9U4cus0 -
Very true. Certain sections of the media overplayed their hand, on a day when they had the opportunity to lead with substantive questions about the policies and personalities of the incoming administration.nunu said:Joe and Mika hit the nail on the head again, Trump has won again because no one is focusing on policy or the confirmation hearings:
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1I9z9U4cus0 -
It didn't. It reported the security services reported that the existence of the claims was credible, not that the claims themselves were.williamglenn said:
It's been reported that the summary that was briefed to Trump categorised the dossier as an example of 'unvetted disinformation', so if a story reported that the security services thought they were credible that is false.SouthamObserver said:CNN reported that Trump had received a briefing that there were credible claims about the existence of compromising material about him. That was and is true. They did not report that the claims were credible, just that security services thought they might be.
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Don Brind provides variety.HYUFD said:
TSE and OGH dislike May and Corbyn and backed Remain so ideologically are not that distinct. A few more pro May or pro Corbyn pieces would be good as well as some pro Brexit ones to match the ones of Meeks for Remain. PB thread headers are normally well written but a bit more variety would be goodDecrepitJohnL said:
Most of the thread headers are written by TSE, who is a card-carrying Conservative, or by OGH who is a Lib-Dem who are centrist or on the right based on their coalition with the Conservatives 2010 to 2015.isam said:
Observation, not a criticism here...SouthamObserver said:I don't think this site has moved to the right. Instead, some who were always very right-wing have become a lot more open about it. I'd say that PB's default is solidly centre-right. But it always has been for as long as I have been on here (first post in 2008). That's a good thing. It's healthy to be exposed to ideas that you do not agree with and to test your own. Only fools stop reading, watching or listening to things because they do not reinforce opinions they already hold.
David Herdson writes one header per week. He is a Tory, I cant remember if he was a Leaver or Remainer. Almost all the other threads are written by left wingers who can be classed as Hardened Remainers.
Take a look at any thread from a year ago and note the political persuasions of those with "User Banned, Please Carry On" as their avatars. They are almost all Kippers (The Nats were already banned). There are also three people in PB Guantanemo Bay, ie not banned but unable to post, who are all outspoken Leavers.
Not complaining, just pointing out how it is. To say this site is Right Wing is so far fetched as to be madness. It is generally centre left/pro EU
You have perhaps fallen into the trap of conflating two groups you dislike, Remainers and Lefties. They are not the same. Ask Jeremy Corbyn or Ken Clarke.0 -
The LDs got 3% in Copeland in 2015 and it voted 62% Leave, if the LDs won the by election Tim Farron would be heading for Downing Street, it is not Richmond ParkGoupillon said:
The LDs will target the 38% that voted leave and those leavers who do not want a hard brexit. I am sure the LD by election campaign team will be well funded, vigorous and supported by a multitude of enthusiastic supporters from all over the UK. I think realistically 20% is possible for Rebecca Hanson but I repeat a win is not impossible with the aid of LD favourable national events.david_herdson said:
What 'forthcoming national events'? The triggering (or not, possibly), of Article 50? I don't see why that should help the Lib Dems to by-election winning scores in a seat that was comfortably Leave. It could help the Lib Dems rise nationally from single figures to low teens but it's a niche position. Also, Olney had the advantage of being the main challenger to Goldsmith. By contrast, the Lib Dems start in fourth in Copeland, having lost their deposit last time. Appealing to Labour voters to back her in order to 'stop the Tories' (or - or even and - to appeal to Tories to vote Lib Dem to stop Corbyn), will look absurd.Goupillon said:The LDs have now selected their candidate for Copeland. Can she do an "Olney" - not impossible as forthcoming national events might help the LDs.
http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/other/Liberal-Democrats-announce-candidate-for-Copeland-by-election-05ba68d6-c599-439b-8d54-27d50900eaab-ds
As an aside, what's with the necklace in the photo in the article linked to?0 -
I'm not sure why we worry too much about the thread headers, since the debate underneath goes in all sorts of directions, including regular updates on the Punic Wars.0
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Yes but Mystic Megg he ain't and he is certainly no Corbyn fan!david_herdson said:
Don Brind provides variety.HYUFD said:
TSE and OGH dislike May and Corbyn and backed Remain so ideologically are not that distinct. A few more pro May or pro Corbyn pieces would be good as well as some pro Brexit ones to match the ones of Meeks for Remain. PB thread headers are normally well written but a bit more variety would be goodDecrepitJohnL said:
Most of the thread headers are written by TSE, who is a card-carrying Conservative, or by OGH who is a Lib-Dem who are centrist or on the right based on their coalition with the Conservatives 2010 to 2015.isam said:
Observation, not a criticism here...SouthamObserver said:I don't think this site has moved to the right. Instead, some who were always very right-wing have become a lot more open about it. I'd say that PB's default is solidly centre-right. But it always has been for as long as I have been on here (first post in 2008). That's a good thing. It's healthy to be exposed to ideas that you do not agree with and to test your own. Only fools stop reading, watching or listening to things because they do not reinforce opinions they already hold.
David Herdson writes one header per week. He is a Tory, I cant remember if he was a Leaver or Remainer. Almost all the other threads are written by left wingers who can be classed as Hardened Remainers.
Take a look at any thread from a year ago and note the political persuasions of those with "User Banned, Please Carry On" as their avatars. They are almost all Kippers (The Nats were already banned). There are also three people in PB Guantanemo Bay, ie not banned but unable to post, who are all outspoken Leavers.
Not complaining, just pointing out how it is. To say this site is Right Wing is so far fetched as to be madness. It is generally centre left/pro EU
You have perhaps fallen into the trap of conflating two groups you dislike, Remainers and Lefties. They are not the same. Ask Jeremy Corbyn or Ken Clarke.0 -
That depends to what extent the election will be fought on Brexit. The Lib Dems successfully turned the Richmond Park election on that issue but Copeland is a different matter. Labour will be fighting as hard as possible for one thing and will be appealing to the same audience the Lib Dems will be pitching to - which given that they won more than ten times as much support as the Lib Dems in 2015 makes them a potentially much more attractive option to 'stop the Tories / UKIP', particularly if they select a sensible candidateGoupillon said:
The LDs will target the 38% that voted leave and those leavers who do not want a hard brexit. I am sure the LD by election campaign team will be well funded, vigorous and supported by a multitude of enthusiastic supporters from all over the UK. I think realistically 20% is possible for Rebecca Hanson but I repeat a win is not impossible with the aid of LD favourable national events.david_herdson said:
What 'forthcoming national events'? The triggering (or not, possibly), of Article 50? I don't see why that should help the Lib Dems to by-election winning scores in a seat that was comfortably Leave. It could help the Lib Dems rise nationally from single figures to low teens but it's a niche position. Also, Olney had the advantage of being the main challenger to Goldsmith. By contrast, the Lib Dems start in fourth in Copeland, having lost their deposit last time. Appealing to Labour voters to back her in order to 'stop the Tories' (or - or even and - to appeal to Tories to vote Lib Dem to stop Corbyn), will look absurd.Goupillon said:The LDs have now selected their candidate for Copeland. Can she do an "Olney" - not impossible as forthcoming national events might help the LDs.
http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/other/Liberal-Democrats-announce-candidate-for-Copeland-by-election-05ba68d6-c599-439b-8d54-27d50900eaab-ds
As an aside, what's with the necklace in the photo in the article linked to?0 -
Presumably though Farron has managed to win in a not-to-different constituency in the same area?HYUFD said:
The LDs got 3% in Copeland in 2015 and it voted 62% Leave, if the LDs won the by election Tim Farron would be heading for Downing Street, it is not Richmond ParkGoupillon said:
The LDs will target the 38% that voted leave and those leavers who do not want a hard brexit. I am sure the LD by election campaign team will be well funded, vigorous and supported by a multitude of enthusiastic supporters from all over the UK. I think realistically 20% is possible for Rebecca Hanson but I repeat a win is not impossible with the aid of LD favourable national events.david_herdson said:
What 'forthcoming national events'? The triggering (or not, possibly), of Article 50? I don't see why that should help the Lib Dems to by-election winning scores in a seat that was comfortably Leave. It could help the Lib Dems rise nationally from single figures to low teens but it's a niche position. Also, Olney had the advantage of being the main challenger to Goldsmith. By contrast, the Lib Dems start in fourth in Copeland, having lost their deposit last time. Appealing to Labour voters to back her in order to 'stop the Tories' (or - or even and - to appeal to Tories to vote Lib Dem to stop Corbyn), will look absurd.Goupillon said:The LDs have now selected their candidate for Copeland. Can she do an "Olney" - not impossible as forthcoming national events might help the LDs.
http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/other/Liberal-Democrats-announce-candidate-for-Copeland-by-election-05ba68d6-c599-439b-8d54-27d50900eaab-ds
As an aside, what's with the necklace in the photo in the article linked to?0 -
There's £11 available at 140 on Betfair, and £16 more at 110, to anyone who thinks the Lib Dems will win the Copeland by-election.Goupillon said:
The LDs will target the 38% that voted leave and those leavers who do not want a hard brexit. I am sure the LD by election campaign team will be well funded, vigorous and supported by a multitude of enthusiastic supporters from all over the UK. I think realistically 20% is possible for Rebecca Hanson but I repeat a win is not impossible with the aid of LD favourable national events.david_herdson said:
What 'forthcoming national events'? The triggering (or not, possibly), of Article 50? I don't see why that should help the Lib Dems to by-election winning scores in a seat that was comfortably Leave. It could help the Lib Dems rise nationally from single figures to low teens but it's a niche position. Also, Olney had the advantage of being the main challenger to Goldsmith. By contrast, the Lib Dems start in fourth in Copeland, having lost their deposit last time. Appealing to Labour voters to back her in order to 'stop the Tories' (or - or even and - to appeal to Tories to vote Lib Dem to stop Corbyn), will look absurd.Goupillon said:The LDs have now selected their candidate for Copeland. Can she do an "Olney" - not impossible as forthcoming national events might help the LDs.
http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/other/Liberal-Democrats-announce-candidate-for-Copeland-by-election-05ba68d6-c599-439b-8d54-27d50900eaab-ds
As an aside, what's with the necklace in the photo in the article linked to?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28056513/market?marketId=1.1288489520 -
Now now, trolling Mr Meeks may be fun - but is rarely productive....MarkHopkins said:The_Apocalypse said:@AlsoIndigo
I actually agree with you re the community. Funnily enough, I think May talked about community a lot in her NYE message - and I liked that even though I've gone off her more recently.
I think it's also true that left/right divide has become less sharp in the last few decades or so. In this country on matters such as sexuality, and women's rights there seems to be a consensus. Social conservatism in this country seems to be nowhere near as divisive as it is in America. I'm on the centre-left but even I can appreciate the stability that family/marriage etc brings to society, although I believe that only people who really want children and are committed to family life should actually start a family. If they can't then it's better to be just married/single/cohabiting. Social conservatism in this country also isn't obsessed with abortion and it isn't about trying to tell people how to live their lives.
I wouldn't even say there's an economic divide because it appears that on the economy the left has literally run out of ideas anyway.
I was watching Newsnight a few weeks ago, and they were saying they think the big divide is internationalist and isolationist. Looking at Trump, and Brexit and now the upcoming elections across Europe I'm inclined to think that.
@Sean_F I think it's true that of the young people who are politically engaged, a lot of them are to left. But I think that's the thing: most young people aren't politically engaged.
"the big divide is internationalist and isolationist"
The Leavers are internationalist, so that makes the Remainers isolationist...0 -
Of course it is. No MSM outlet reported the allegations themselves. Only BuzzFeed has done that. Of course, the idea that Breitbart or Guido would not report salacious, unsubstantiated claims is nonsense. Wasn't it only last week that Breitbart was telling us a Moslem mob had burned down a church in Dortmund? "But it could have been right," people said, "the MSM cover these things up!!" Well, I'm afraid that Trump enjoying golden showers in Moscow is not beyond the realms of possibility. The MSM did not report them, an alt (fake?) news site did. That's the world we live in now.rkrkrk said:
I'd add I think it is absolutely newsworthy. The fact that the authorities thought it worth informing Trump and Obama is significant.SouthamObserver said:
CNN ran with a story that was true and which has been confirmed to be true.weejonnie said:
Too many people in the media run with stories because they hope that they are true and want to believe them or hope that merely with running with stories portraying someone as being a pervert will help their cause: 'McAlpine' anyone?PlatoSaid said:
I've not seen many running to defend CNN or Buzzfeed - it's a hot mess neither should've touched.Pulpstar said:
I think it is Buzzfeed and CNN that lost touch with Reality yesterday anyway. 45 minutes to piss on the president-elect.david_herdson said:
I'd agree with you if Trump does just prove to be "slightly nutty but erratic and ... fairly ineffectual". The problem is if he seems to be completely losing touch with reality and proportion and showing severe signs of paranoia. He's already starting some way down that road.AlsoIndigo said:
I was speculating whether Senators and Congressmen might ultimately stay their hand if they have a slightly nutty but erratic and potentially fairly ineffectual President Trump, who would be replaced by a focused, coherent, politically adept, and supposedly dangerously clever hard-right alternative in Pence (who would then probably bring in Cruz as his hatchet man).david_herdson said:The question is whether it might be necessary (though I do accept your tactical thinking of President Frying-Pan having run with Vice-President Fire).
Oh, and what was that about Obama's birth certificate? :-D
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He won Westmoreland in 2005 and it voted Remainrottenborough said:
Presumably though Farron has managed to win in a not-to-different constituency in the same area?HYUFD said:
The LDs got 3% in Copeland in 2015 and it voted 62% Leave, if the LDs won the by election Tim Farron would be heading for Downing Street, it is not Richmond ParkGoupillon said:
The LDs will target the 38% that voted leave and those leavers who do not want a hard brexit. I am sure the LD by election campaign team will be well funded, vigorous and supported by a multitude of enthusiastic supporters from all over the UK. I think realistically 20% is possible for Rebecca Hanson but I repeat a win is not impossible with the aid of LD favourable national events.david_herdson said:
What 'forthcoming national events'? The triggering (or not, possibly), of Article 50? I don't see why that should help the Lib Dems to by-election winning scores in a seat that was comfortably Leave. It could help the Lib Dems rise nationally from single figures to low teens but it's a niche position. Also, Olney had the advantage of being the main challenger to Goldsmith. By contrast, the Lib Dems start in fourth in Copeland, having lost their deposit last time. Appealing to Labour voters to back her in order to 'stop the Tories' (or - or even and - to appeal to Tories to vote Lib Dem to stop Corbyn), will look absurd.Goupillon said:The LDs have now selected their candidate for Copeland. Can she do an "Olney" - not impossible as forthcoming national events might help the LDs.
http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/other/Liberal-Democrats-announce-candidate-for-Copeland-by-election-05ba68d6-c599-439b-8d54-27d50900eaab-ds
As an aside, what's with the necklace in the photo in the article linked to?0 -
Says the person who repeatedly posted libelous fictions about Clinton even when repeatedly pointed out they weren't true.PlatoSaid said:
Frankly, I think the whole thing is hilarious rubbish and a great example of confirmation bias - by those who desperately want it to be true.
.0 -
I can feel the WTF I'm Alive relief at the end
ABC 24
Watch the moment an Australian snowboarder became caught in an #avalanche & coasted through it thanks to an early birthday present. https://t.co/ibZau7NwCk-1 -
Lol The Lib Dems won't win Copeland.
But we might run UKIP very close.0 -
Because it has bright people, not Land Economy students?TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would anyone choose to go to Oxford Uni is beyond me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Apparently some twat from Oxford university made a complaint, claiming it was a hate crime, which the police have a legal duty to investigate & they said no it wasn't, but recorded it as a "non-crime hate incidenPlatoSaid said:FFS - I really don't like her, but this is absurd
Danny Shaw
West Midlands Police confirm Amber Rudd's speech to Conservative Party conference in Birmingham treated as a "hate incident"...
Whole thing makes a mockery of when some one is actually beaten up just cos they are black, white, Jew, Muslim etc.
First Rhodes must fall, now this, it is snowflake central.0 -
They might share a border, but they are a million miles apart in terms who lives in them.rottenborough said:
Presumably though Farron has managed to win in a not-to-different constituency in the same area?HYUFD said:
The LDs got 3% in Copeland in 2015 and it voted 62% Leave, if the LDs won the by election Tim Farron would be heading for Downing Street, it is not Richmond ParkGoupillon said:
The LDs will target the 38% that voted leave and those leavers who do not want a hard brexit. I am sure the LD by election campaign team will be well funded, vigorous and supported by a multitude of enthusiastic supporters from all over the UK. I think realistically 20% is possible for Rebecca Hanson but I repeat a win is not impossible with the aid of LD favourable national events.david_herdson said:
What 'forthcoming national events'? The triggering (or not, possibly), of Article 50? I don't see why that should help the Lib Dems to by-election winning scores in a seat that was comfortably Leave. It could help the Lib Dems rise nationally from single figures to low teens but it's a niche position. Also, Olney had the advantage of being the main challenger to Goldsmith. By contrast, the Lib Dems start in fourth in Copeland, having lost their deposit last time. Appealing to Labour voters to back her in order to 'stop the Tories' (or - or even and - to appeal to Tories to vote Lib Dem to stop Corbyn), will look absurd.Goupillon said:The LDs have now selected their candidate for Copeland. Can she do an "Olney" - not impossible as forthcoming national events might help the LDs.
http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/other/Liberal-Democrats-announce-candidate-for-Copeland-by-election-05ba68d6-c599-439b-8d54-27d50900eaab-ds
As an aside, what's with the necklace in the photo in the article linked to?0 -
I get the impression Westmorland and Copeland have differing attitudes and living standards between the constituencies even though both are set in stunning geography.HYUFD said:
He won Westmoreland in 2005 and it voted Remainrottenborough said:
Presumably though Farron has managed to win in a not-to-different constituency in the same area?HYUFD said:
The LDs got 3% in Copeland in 2015 and it voted 62% Leave, if the LDs won the by election Tim Farron would be heading for Downing Street, it is not Richmond ParkGoupillon said:
The LDs will target the 38% that voted leave and those leavers who do not want a hard brexit. I am sure the LD by election campaign team will be well funded, vigorous and supported by a multitude of enthusiastic supporters from all over the UK. I think realistically 20% is possible for Rebecca Hanson but I repeat a win is not impossible with the aid of LD favourable national events.david_herdson said:
What 'forthcoming national events'? The triggering (or not, possibly), of Article 50? I don't see why that should help the Lib Dems to by-election winning scores in a seat that was comfortably Leave. It could help the Lib Dems rise nationally from single figures to low teens but it's a niche position. Also, Olney had the advantage of being the main challenger to Goldsmith. By contrast, the Lib Dems start in fourth in Copeland, having lost their deposit last time. Appealing to Labour voters to back her in order to 'stop the Tories' (or - or even and - to appeal to Tories to vote Lib Dem to stop Corbyn), will look absurd.Goupillon said:The LDs have now selected their candidate for Copeland. Can she do an "Olney" - not impossible as forthcoming national events might help the LDs.
http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/other/Liberal-Democrats-announce-candidate-for-Copeland-by-election-05ba68d6-c599-439b-8d54-27d50900eaab-ds
As an aside, what's with the necklace in the photo in the article linked to?0 -
Didn't OGH say a Leave vote would be a bigger polling disaster than GE 2015?The_Apocalypse said:
Most of the opinion polls reported the public voting LEAVE. There was literally a thread on it on this site.AlsoIndigo said:
This is the wider public that just voted for Brexit despite respectable opinion polls saying they wouldn't, dont let your academic/online centred view on life blind you to the views of the population at large.The_Apocalypse said:@Pulpstar & @Morris_Dancer It's been claimed on this site a number of times that the views here are representative of the wider public.
Have you read Dom Cumming's blog post on Brexit - very, very good. Best thing I've read on the matter. Probably better than everything else I've read put together. Highlighting supposed 'centrism' on issues like immigration as alien and extreme to the majority of the public highlights how out of touch SW1 is with the country.
On the day of the referendum, Charles of this parish wrote a bang-on justification of why he voted for Leave. A line that struck me was about how it was the only way to try and reconnect the voters of this country with their representatives. A few fewer lattes purchased doesn't bother me; less democracy does. Brexit is about changing that.0 -
Don is probably the best writer of fantasy in contemporary fiction. Always look forward to his articles.david_herdson said:
Don Brind provides variety.HYUFD said:
TSE and OGH dislike May and Corbyn and backed Remain so ideologically are not that distinct. A few more pro May or pro Corbyn pieces would be good as well as some pro Brexit ones to match the ones of Meeks for Remain. PB thread headers are normally well written but a bit more variety would be goodDecrepitJohnL said:
Most of the thread headers are written by TSE, who is a card-carrying Conservative, or by OGH who is a Lib-Dem who are centrist or on the right based on their coalition with the Conservatives 2010 to 2015.isam said:
Observation, not a criticism here...SouthamObserver said:I don't think this site has moved to the right. Instead, some who were always very right-wing have become a lot more open about it. I'd say that PB's default is solidly centre-right. But it always has been for as long as I have been on here (first post in 2008). That's a good thing. It's healthy to be exposed to ideas that you do not agree with and to test your own. Only fools stop reading, watching or listening to things because they do not reinforce opinions they already hold.
David Herdson writes one header per week. He is a Tory, I cant remember if he was a Leaver or Remainer. Almost all the other threads are written by left wingers who can be classed as Hardened Remainers.
Take a look at any thread from a year ago and note the political persuasions of those with "User Banned, Please Carry On" as their avatars. They are almost all Kippers (The Nats were already banned). There are also three people in PB Guantanemo Bay, ie not banned but unable to post, who are all outspoken Leavers.
Not complaining, just pointing out how it is. To say this site is Right Wing is so far fetched as to be madness. It is generally centre left/pro EU
You have perhaps fallen into the trap of conflating two groups you dislike, Remainers and Lefties. They are not the same. Ask Jeremy Corbyn or Ken Clarke.0 -
Grim back in a big way!0
-
Substantive questions don't sell papers or TV remote clicks. The MSM lost the plot long ago. I thought Cummings' long piece in the Speccie was rather good on this. The cashflow comes from profitable journalism not good journalism. There is almost no really well informed, good journalism out there.Sandpit said:
Very true. Certain sections of the media overplayed their hand, on a day when they had the opportunity to lead with substantive questions about the policies and personalities of the incoming administration.nunu said:Joe and Mika hit the nail on the head again, Trump has won again because no one is focusing on policy or the confirmation hearings:
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1I9z9U4cus0 -
Re: Anthony King. I worked with him briefly in the 1980s and always found him urbane and civilised as well as extremely well-informed. But my favourite memory is of a wine tasting he organised in Colchester. It included a New Zealand Pinot Noir that smelt like a farmyard when opened but was wonderful to drink. I wish I could remember what it was!0
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Not wanting to go to Oxford is the first symptom of not being able to get into Oxford....TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would anyone choose to go to Oxford Uni is beyond me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Apparently some twat from Oxford university made a complaint, claiming it was a hate crime, which the police have a legal duty to investigate & they said no it wasn't, but recorded it as a "non-crime hate incidenPlatoSaid said:FFS - I really don't like her, but this is absurd
Danny Shaw
West Midlands Police confirm Amber Rudd's speech to Conservative Party conference in Birmingham treated as a "hate incident"...
Whole thing makes a mockery of when some one is actually beaten up just cos they are black, white, Jew, Muslim etc.
First Rhodes must fall, now this, it is snowflake central.0 -
RIP Graham Taylor,former England manager.0
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@Mortimer He did. Before the EU ref polling thread was posted.0
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On a related note, re: Amber Rudd:Alistair said:
Says the person who repeatedly posted libelous fictions about Clinton even when repeatedly pointed out they weren't true.PlatoSaid said:
Frankly, I think the whole thing is hilarious rubbish and a great example of confirmation bias - by those who desperately want it to be true.
.
https://twitter.com/sara__firth/status/819531851756896256
Who'd have guessed? :-D0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/01/12/graham-taylor-former-england-aston-villa-manager-dies-aged-72/FrancisUrquhart said:Grim back in a big way!
0 -
Unless you go to Cambridge like TSEMortimer said:
Not wanting to go to Oxford is the first symptom of not being able to get into Oxford....TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would anyone choose to go to Oxford Uni is beyond me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Apparently some twat from Oxford university made a complaint, claiming it was a hate crime, which the police have a legal duty to investigate & they said no it wasn't, but recorded it as a "non-crime hate incidenPlatoSaid said:FFS - I really don't like her, but this is absurd
Danny Shaw
West Midlands Police confirm Amber Rudd's speech to Conservative Party conference in Birmingham treated as a "hate incident"...
Whole thing makes a mockery of when some one is actually beaten up just cos they are black, white, Jew, Muslim etc.
First Rhodes must fall, now this, it is snowflake central.0 -
It is still changing. (Anecdotally) I have seen a significant improvement in a couple of schools I'm familiar with just in the last five years.The_Apocalypse said:
Thank you. Don't worry - I'm not leaving.Anorak said:
I'd be saddened to see you leave.The_Apocalypse said:
Most of the opinion polls reported the public voting LEAVE. There was literally a thread on it on this site.AlsoIndigo said:
This is the wider public that just voted for Brexit despite respectable opinion polls saying they wouldn't, dont let your academic/online centred view on life blind you to the views of the population at large.The_Apocalypse said:@Pulpstar & @Morris_Dancer It's been claimed on this site a number of times that the views here are representative of the wider public.
Trump is unpopular in this country. Voting for Brexit doesn't mean you like Trump.
Your views may - on occasion - be met with hostility and derision, but they are widely held views among a younger demographic and they are a harbinger for future shifts in public opinion.
Feminism spent decades being derided by the majority of the public (although this was likely to due to the paucity of female journalists, pundits, politicians and business leaders), but the principal that sexual equality is now so mainstream that to oppose it is a fringe view at best.
The shift to acceptance of one's sexual orientation, whatever it may be, is not complete but light years from mainstream opinion just 30 years ago. Anecdote: having dinner with friends, and was told that a boy had come out as gay at their son's school. It appears to have increased his popularity, which is a world apart from what the reaction would have been a generation ago: violence and isolation. (caveat: this was a fee-paying London school, so not particularly representative, but telling nevertheless.
Stay. Challenge. Fight. Educate. Please.
I'm also glad to hear that story about a young boy's coming out. Sadly, at the schools I attended kids would have still been bullied for their sexual orientation.0 -
Do I not like that...FrancisUrquhart said:Grim back in a big way!
0 -
I'd say wanting to go to Cambridge would be the second symptom....HYUFD said:
Unless you go to Cambridge like TSEMortimer said:
Not wanting to go to Oxford is the first symptom of not being able to get into Oxford....TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would anyone choose to go to Oxford Uni is beyond me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Apparently some twat from Oxford university made a complaint, claiming it was a hate crime, which the police have a legal duty to investigate & they said no it wasn't, but recorded it as a "non-crime hate incidenPlatoSaid said:FFS - I really don't like her, but this is absurd
Danny Shaw
West Midlands Police confirm Amber Rudd's speech to Conservative Party conference in Birmingham treated as a "hate incident"...
Whole thing makes a mockery of when some one is actually beaten up just cos they are black, white, Jew, Muslim etc.
First Rhodes must fall, now this, it is snowflake central.0 -
Westmoreland is more rural and Copeland more working classPulpstar said:
I get the impression Westmorland and Copeland have differing attitudes and living standards between the constituencies even though both are set in stunning geography.HYUFD said:
He won Westmoreland in 2005 and it voted Remainrottenborough said:
Presumably though Farron has managed to win in a not-to-different constituency in the same area?HYUFD said:
The LDs got 3% in Copeland in 2015 and it voted 62% Leave, if the LDs won the by election Tim Farron would be heading for Downing Street, it is not Richmond ParkGoupillon said:
The LDs will target the 38% that voted leave and those leavers who do not want a hard brexit. I am sure the LD by election campaign team will be well funded, vigorous and supported by a multitude of enthusiastic supporters from all over the UK. I think realistically 20% is possible for Rebecca Hanson but I repeat a win is not impossible with the aid of LD favourable national events.david_herdson said:
What 'forthcoming national events'? The triggering (or not, possibly), of Article 50? I don't see why that should help the Lib Dems to by-election winning scores in a seat that was comfortably Leave. It could help the Lib Dems rise nationally from single figures to low teens but it's a niche position. Also, Olney had the advantage of being the main challenger to Goldsmith. By contrast, the Lib Dems start in fourth in Copeland, having lost their deposit last time. Appealing to Labour voters to back her in order to 'stop the Tories' (or - or even and - to appeal to Tories to vote Lib Dem to stop Corbyn), will look absurd.Goupillon said:The LDs have now selected their candidate for Copeland. Can she do an "Olney" - not impossible as forthcoming national events might help the LDs.
http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/other/Liberal-Democrats-announce-candidate-for-Copeland-by-election-05ba68d6-c599-439b-8d54-27d50900eaab-ds
As an aside, what's with the necklace in the photo in the article linked to?0 -
Of course he did! Which incoming President of the United States wouldn't prefer the news to travel the world that he's employed prostitutes in a Moscow hotel to piss all over him than that he should be questioned about his latest political appointments!nunu said:Joe and Mika hit the nail on the head again, Trump has won again because no one is focusing on policy or the confirmation hearings:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1I9z9U4cus
Pure genius!
0 -
As I went to Warwick and Aberystwyth I will leave TSE to reply if he wishesMortimer said:
I'd say wanting to go to Cambridge would be the second symptom....HYUFD said:
Unless you go to Cambridge like TSEMortimer said:
Not wanting to go to Oxford is the first symptom of not being able to get into Oxford....TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would anyone choose to go to Oxford Uni is beyond me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Apparently some twat from Oxford university made a complaint, claiming it was a hate crime, which the police have a legal duty to investigate & they said no it wasn't, but recorded it as a "non-crime hate incidenPlatoSaid said:FFS - I really don't like her, but this is absurd
Danny Shaw
West Midlands Police confirm Amber Rudd's speech to Conservative Party conference in Birmingham treated as a "hate incident"...
Whole thing makes a mockery of when some one is actually beaten up just cos they are black, white, Jew, Muslim etc.
First Rhodes must fall, now this, it is snowflake central.0 -
Exhibit A being the Telegraph, which used to be quite good and is now little more than a series of listicles.Patrick said:
Substantive questions don't sell papers or TV remote clicks. The MSM lost the plot long ago. I thought Cummings' long piece in the Speccie was rather good on this. The cashflow comes from profitable journalism not good journalism. There is almost no really well informed, good journalism out there.Sandpit said:
Very true. Certain sections of the media overplayed their hand, on a day when they had the opportunity to lead with substantive questions about the policies and personalities of the incoming administration.nunu said:Joe and Mika hit the nail on the head again, Trump has won again because no one is focusing on policy or the confirmation hearings:
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1I9z9U4cus
On Oxbridge, I would have loved to have gone, but utterly failed my 'S' levels - a salutary lesson that I wasn't quite as clever as I fancied, and that 'doing no work or revision at all' was not particularly effective as a learning strategy.0 -
Thanks to everyone from the previous topic.
@DavidL after almost 8 years together it was close to an inevitability rather than a surprise. That's not to take the romance out of it, we've just not been ready for a while especially since I changed career and needed time to establish myself. It was the new job plus my other half's completion of her master's degree that has paved the way for settling down. I think she's been expecting it for almost two years. She was hopeful every time we went overseas or were at our friends weddings I think.
In other news, Mark Carney's comments from yesterday should be mandatory reading for everyone. The Times has them.0 -
Yep, look what's happened to the Telegraph in the last three or four years for probably the best example. News is becoming so dumbed down and clickbaity (is that a word?) at the expense of serious journalism. Researchers and sub editors have become a thing of the past, even at the serious publications. To take it to the extreme, the MSM is now becoming infected with Fake News.Patrick said:
Substantive questions don't sell papers or TV remote clicks. The MSM lost the plot long ago. I thought Cummings' long piece in the Speccie was rather good on this. The cashflow comes from profitable journalism not good journalism. There is almost no really well informed, good journalism out there.Sandpit said:
Very true. Certain sections of the media overplayed their hand, on a day when they had the opportunity to lead with substantive questions about the policies and personalities of the incoming administration.nunu said:Joe and Mika hit the nail on the head again, Trump has won again because no one is focusing on policy or the confirmation hearings:
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1I9z9U4cus0 -
Hence why CNN gave Trump hours of coverage during the primaries.Patrick said:
Substantive questions don't sell papers or TV remote clicks. The MSM lost the plot long ago. I thought Cummings' long piece in the Speccie was rather good on this. The cashflow comes from profitable journalism not good journalism. There is almost no really well informed, good journalism out there.Sandpit said:
Very true. Certain sections of the media overplayed their hand, on a day when they had the opportunity to lead with substantive questions about the policies and personalities of the incoming administration.nunu said:Joe and Mika hit the nail on the head again, Trump has won again because no one is focusing on policy or the confirmation hearings:
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1I9z9U4cus0 -
Congratulations mate, now get off PB and enjoy your holiday!MaxPB said:Thanks to everyone from the previous topic.
@DavidL after almost 8 years together it was close to an inevitability rather than a surprise. That's not to take the romance out of it, we've just not been ready for a while especially since I changed career and needed time to establish myself. It was the new job plus my other half's completion of her master's degree that has paved the way for settling down. I think she's been expecting it for almost two years. She was hopeful every time we went overseas or were at our friends weddings I think.
In other news, Mark Carney's comments from yesterday should be mandatory reading for everyone. The Times has them.
0 -
Absolutely. Far too many political anoraks on here and elsewhere are assuming that the wider public share their obsession with Brexit. I don't expect that to be the case in Copeland -nor indeed across the country as a whole.david_herdson said:
That depends to what extent the election will be fought on Brexit. The Lib Dems successfully turned the Richmond Park election on that issue but Copeland is a different matter. Labour will be fighting as hard as possible for one thing and will be appealing to the same audience the Lib Dems will be pitching to - which given that they won more than ten times as much support as the Lib Dems in 2015 makes them a potentially much more attractive option to 'stop the Tories / UKIP', particularly if they select a sensible candidateGoupillon said:
The LDs will target the 38% that voted leave and those leavers who do not want a hard brexit. I am sure the LD by election campaign team will be well funded, vigorous and supported by a multitude of enthusiastic supporters from all over the UK. I think realistically 20% is possible for Rebecca Hanson but I repeat a win is not impossible with the aid of LD favourable national events.david_herdson said:
What 'forthcoming national events'? The triggering (or not, possibly), of Article 50? I don't see why that should help the Lib Dems to by-election winning scores in a seat that was comfortably Leave. It could help the Lib Dems rise nationally from single figures to low teens but it's a niche position. Also, Olney had the advantage of being the main challenger to Goldsmith. By contrast, the Lib Dems start in fourth in Copeland, having lost their deposit last time. Appealing to Labour voters to back her in order to 'stop the Tories' (or - or even and - to appeal to Tories to vote Lib Dem to stop Corbyn), will look absurd.Goupillon said:The LDs have now selected their candidate for Copeland. Can she do an "Olney" - not impossible as forthcoming national events might help the LDs.
http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/other/Liberal-Democrats-announce-candidate-for-Copeland-by-election-05ba68d6-c599-439b-8d54-27d50900eaab-ds
As an aside, what's with the necklace in the photo in the article linked to?0 -
Amen to that. It's a really stupid idea to suggest that if someone bashes you on the head, it somehow makes it worse that they do so because they think you are gay or a Muslim, rather than because they think you are a lefty or a banker. The law should deal in facts - someone being bashed on the head - and nothing else.Sean_F said:It would be better if we did away with the entire concept of "hate incidents/hate crimes." Either an act is a crime or it isn't.
0 -
Sandpit said:
Congratulations mate, now get off PB and enjoy your holiday!MaxPB said:Thanks to everyone from the previous topic.
@DavidL after almost 8 years together it was close to an inevitability rather than a surprise. That's not to take the romance out of it, we've just not been ready for a while especially since I changed career and needed time to establish myself. It was the new job plus my other half's completion of her master's degree that has paved the way for settling down. I think she's been expecting it for almost two years. She was hopeful every time we went overseas or were at our friends weddings I think.
In other news, Mark Carney's comments from yesterday should be mandatory reading for everyone. The Times has them.
- and many congrats Max. 0 -
I looked at my classmates trying for Oxbridge and saw swots and social climbers I'd nothing in common with. It never appealed to me at all.John_M said:
Exhibit A being the Telegraph, which used to be quite good and is now little more than a series of listicles.Patrick said:
Substantive questions don't sell papers or TV remote clicks. The MSM lost the plot long ago. I thought Cummings' long piece in the Speccie was rather good on this. The cashflow comes from profitable journalism not good journalism. There is almost no really well informed, good journalism out there.Sandpit said:
Very true. Certain sections of the media overplayed their hand, on a day when they had the opportunity to lead with substantive questions about the policies and personalities of the incoming administration.nunu said:Joe and Mika hit the nail on the head again, Trump has won again because no one is focusing on policy or the confirmation hearings:
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1I9z9U4cus
On Oxbridge, I would have loved to have gone, but utterly failed my 'S' levels - a salutary lesson that I wasn't quite as clever as I fancied, and that 'doing no work or revision at all' was not particularly effective as a learning strategy.0 -
New thread.0
-
That was my strategy too, which may or may not have been influenced by my decision not to apply to Oxford. I ended up with what I like to call a golden grade in Maths (in which I took and failed an S level), as the results sheet showed A- and S-level next to each other, hence AU.John_M said:
Exhibit A being the Telegraph, which used to be quite good and is now little more than a series of listicles.Patrick said:
Substantive questions don't sell papers or TV remote clicks. The MSM lost the plot long ago. I thought Cummings' long piece in the Speccie was rather good on this. The cashflow comes from profitable journalism not good journalism. There is almost no really well informed, good journalism out there.Sandpit said:
Very true. Certain sections of the media overplayed their hand, on a day when they had the opportunity to lead with substantive questions about the policies and personalities of the incoming administration.nunu said:Joe and Mika hit the nail on the head again, Trump has won again because no one is focusing on policy or the confirmation hearings:
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1I9z9U4cus
On Oxbridge, I would have loved to have gone, but utterly failed my 'S' levels - a salutary lesson that I wasn't quite as clever as I fancied, and that 'doing no work or revision at all' was not particularly effective as a learning strategy.
But I'd decided that Durham seemed a nicer place anyway.0 -
Late to the news - CongratsMaxPB said:Thanks to everyone from the previous topic.
@DavidL after almost 8 years together it was close to an inevitability rather than a surprise. That's not to take the romance out of it, we've just not been ready for a while especially since I changed career and needed time to establish myself. It was the new job plus my other half's completion of her master's degree that has paved the way for settling down. I think she's been expecting it for almost two years. She was hopeful every time we went overseas or were at our friends weddings I think.
In other news, Mark Carney's comments from yesterday should be mandatory reading for everyone. The Times has them.
0 -
It has been in every by election since the referendum so I doubt Copeland will be much different but the LDs are likely too far behind to win and the fact it is a Leave seat and the Corbyn factor gives the Tories a real chance. On the latest yougov and ICM Copeland is too close to calljustin124 said:
Absolutely. Far too many political anoraks on here and elsewhere are assuming that the wider public share their obsession with Brexit. I don't expect that to be the case in Copeland -nor indeed across the country as a whole.david_herdson said:
That depends to what extent the election will be fought on Brexit. The Lib Dems successfully turned the Richmond Park election on that issue but Copeland is a different matter. Labour will be fighting as hard as possible for one thing and will be appealing to the same audience the Lib Dems will be pitching to - which given that they won more than ten times as much support as the Lib Dems in 2015 makes them a potentially much more attractive option to 'stop the Tories / UKIP', particularly if they select a sensible candidateGoupillon said:
The LDs will target the 38% that voted leave and those leavers who do not want a hard brexit. I am sure the LD by election campaign team will be well funded, vigorous and supported by a multitude of enthusiastic supporters from all over the UK. I think realistically 20% is possible for Rebecca Hanson but I repeat a win is not impossible with the aid of LD favourable national events.david_herdson said:
What 'forthcoming national events'? The triggering (or not, possibly), of Article 50? I don't see why that should help the Lib Dems to by-election winning scores in a seat that was comfortably Leave. It could help the Lib Dems rise nationally from single figures to low teens but it's a niche position. Also, Olney had the advantage of being the main challenger to Goldsmith. By contrast, the Lib Dems start in fourth in Copeland, having lost their deposit last time. Appealing to Labour voters to back her in order to 'stop the Tories' (or - or even and - to appeal to Tories to vote Lib Dem to stop Corbyn), will look absurd.Goupillon said:The LDs have now selected their candidate for Copeland. Can she do an "Olney" - not impossible as forthcoming national events might help the LDs.
http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/other/Liberal-Democrats-announce-candidate-for-Copeland-by-election-05ba68d6-c599-439b-8d54-27d50900eaab-ds
As an aside, what's with the necklace in the photo in the article linked to?0 -
Congrats Max and as others have said. Get off PB and enjoy your holiday.0
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The one on Daily Politics today could barely produce a sentence - his depths were very well hidden!david_herdson said:
They want to be prime minister?TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would anyone choose to go to Oxford Uni is beyond me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Apparently some twat from Oxford university made a complaint, claiming it was a hate crime, which the police have a legal duty to investigate & they said no it wasn't, but recorded it as a "non-crime hate incidenPlatoSaid said:FFS - I really don't like her, but this is absurd
Danny Shaw
West Midlands Police confirm Amber Rudd's speech to Conservative Party conference in Birmingham treated as a "hate incident"...
Whole thing makes a mockery of when some one is actually beaten up just cos they are black, white, Jew, Muslim etc.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/01/05/a-measure-of-the-anti-elite-backlash-will-be-when-when-a-non-dark-blue-educated-leader-becomes-a-ge-winner/0 -
CongratulationsMaxPB said:Thanks to everyone from the previous topic.
@DavidL after almost 8 years together it was close to an inevitability rather than a surprise. That's not to take the romance out of it, we've just not been ready for a while especially since I changed career and needed time to establish myself. It was the new job plus my other half's completion of her master's degree that has paved the way for settling down. I think she's been expecting it for almost two years. She was hopeful every time we went overseas or were at our friends weddings I think.
In other news, Mark Carney's comments from yesterday should be mandatory reading for everyone. The Times has them.0 -
Many applicants are turned off Oxbridge by its association with snobbery and the major public schools.My headmaster used to put quite a bit of effort into persuading such boys to apply but he rarely succeeded.I also recall one boy - a mathematical genius - turning down offers from both Oxford and Cambridge in favour of Imperial College London!Mortimer said:
Not wanting to go to Oxford is the first symptom of not being able to get into Oxford....TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would anyone choose to go to Oxford Uni is beyond me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Apparently some twat from Oxford university made a complaint, claiming it was a hate crime, which the police have a legal duty to investigate & they said no it wasn't, but recorded it as a "non-crime hate incidenPlatoSaid said:FFS - I really don't like her, but this is absurd
Danny Shaw
West Midlands Police confirm Amber Rudd's speech to Conservative Party conference in Birmingham treated as a "hate incident"...
Whole thing makes a mockery of when some one is actually beaten up just cos they are black, white, Jew, Muslim etc.
First Rhodes must fall, now this, it is snowflake central.0 -
Just seen. Congratulations.MaxPB said:Thanks to everyone from the previous topic.
@DavidL after almost 8 years together it was close to an inevitability rather than a surprise. That's not to take the romance out of it, we've just not been ready for a while especially since I changed career and needed time to establish myself. It was the new job plus my other half's completion of her master's degree that has paved the way for settling down. I think she's been expecting it for almost two years. She was hopeful every time we went overseas or were at our friends weddings I think.
In other news, Mark Carney's comments from yesterday should be mandatory reading for everyone. The Times has them.
I never bought a big sparkly ring. I got one made to a design that had personal meaning but with no stone and we spend the money on a holiday to see the Northern Lights instead.0 -
NEW THREAD
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It's not a big surprise views are changing given the experience of life people have. Thirty years ago divorce was kept very quiet, as was single parenting. My son is in a class of 28 only two children of which are living with both birth parents, and this is in the rural shires.Nigelb said:
It is still changing. (Anecdotally) I have seen a significant improvement in a couple of schools I'm familiar with just in the last five years.The_Apocalypse said:
Thank you. Don't worry - I'm not leaving.Anorak said:
I'd be saddened to see you leave.The_Apocalypse said:
Most of the opinion polls reported the public voting LEAVE. There was literally a thread on it on this site.AlsoIndigo said:
This is the wider public that just voted for Brexit despite respectable opinion polls saying they wouldn't, dont let your academic/online centred view on life blind you to the views of the population at large.The_Apocalypse said:@Pulpstar & @Morris_Dancer It's been claimed on this site a number of times that the views here are representative of the wider public.
Trump is unpopular in this country. Voting for Brexit doesn't mean you like Trump.
Your views may - on occasion - be met with hostility and derision, but they are widely held views among a younger demographic and they are a harbinger for future shifts in public opinion.
Feminism spent decades being derided by the majority of the public (although this was likely to due to the paucity of female journalists, pundits, politicians and business leaders), but the principal that sexual equality is now so mainstream that to oppose it is a fringe view at best.
The shift to acceptance of one's sexual orientation, whatever it may be, is not complete but light years from mainstream opinion just 30 years ago. Anecdote: having dinner with friends, and was told that a boy had come out as gay at their son's school. It appears to have increased his popularity, which is a world apart from what the reaction would have been a generation ago: violence and isolation. (caveat: this was a fee-paying London school, so not particularly representative, but telling nevertheless.
Stay. Challenge. Fight. Educate. Please.
I'm also glad to hear that story about a young boy's coming out. Sadly, at the schools I attended kids would have still been bullied for their sexual orientation.0 -
The stigma of divorce has really gone by the 60s. Havig kids out of wedlock is a different matter - and remains far from being universally accepted.AlsoIndigo said:
It's not a big surprise views are changing given the experience of life people have. Thirty years ago divorce was kept very quiet, as was single parenting. My son is in a class of 28 only two children of which are living with both birth parents, and this is in the rural shires.Nigelb said:
It is still changing. (Anecdotally) I have seen a significant improvement in a couple of schools I'm familiar with just in the last five years.The_Apocalypse said:
Thank you. Don't worry - I'm not leaving.Anorak said:
I'd be saddened to see you leave.The_Apocalypse said:
Most of the opinion polls reported the public voting LEAVE. There was literally a thread on it on this site.AlsoIndigo said:
This is the wider public that just voted for Brexit despite respectable opinion polls saying they wouldn't, dont let your academic/online centred view on life blind you to the views of the population at large.The_Apocalypse said:@Pulpstar & @Morris_Dancer It's been claimed on this site a number of times that the views here are representative of the wider public.
Trump is unpopular in this country. Voting for Brexit doesn't mean you like Trump.
Your views may - on occasion - be met with hostility and derision, but they are widely held views among a younger demographic and they are a harbinger for future shifts in public opinion.
Feminism spent decades being derided by the majority of the public (although this was likely to due to the paucity of female journalists, pundits, politicians and business leaders), but the principal that sexual equality is now so mainstream that to oppose it is a fringe view at best.
The shift to acceptance of one's sexual orientation, whatever it may be, is not complete but light years from mainstream opinion just 30 years ago. Anecdote: having dinner with friends, and was told that a boy had come out as gay at their son's school. It appears to have increased his popularity, which is a world apart from what the reaction would have been a generation ago: violence and isolation. (caveat: this was a fee-paying London school, so not particularly representative, but telling nevertheless.
Stay. Challenge. Fight. Educate. Please.
I'm also glad to hear that story about a young boy's coming out. Sadly, at the schools I attended kids would have still been bullied for their sexual orientation.0 -
I'm not saying pollsters can't make mistakes, of course polls can be flawed and indeed are flawed. EG the theory behind a poll is a representative sample and if everyone called answers the questions and we know full well samples aren't representative and that not everyone called either answers the phone or answers the questions.Dromedary said:
No, but if one of those 20 has a result two or three times as far from the prediction as the stated margin of error, in other words at z=4 or z=6, the pollster has messed up BIG TIME. Such results should happen only once every 16000 times (z=4) or 500 million times (z=6).Philip_Thompson said:I've always been concerned by this. Polls have a natural margin of error (and 1 in 20 should even if perfect be outside the margin of error).
If a polling company does 20 polls, 19 are accurate but the 20th is the final one and is outside margin of error (or even in margin of error but at the extreme end of it) then have they "failed"?
Anyway there aren't 19 other events that can reasonably be put in the same bag in this context as the Brexit referendum or the US election.
Polls don't have a "natural" margin of error. Has someone analysed how pollsters have performed not simply relative to their predicted outcomes but relative to their stated margins of error? That would be interesting. There was one academic expert who on the night of the 2015 general election was assessing the probability of some other result than a hung parliament at something like 1 in 3.4 million. I don't remember the exact figure, but it was huge and I think he may have stated it to 2 significant figures. This wasn't the kind of mistake that a competent person makes from time to time. What happened shows clearly that the guy's methods were total rubbish.
However even if the pollster was perfect, without any issues, there would still "naturally" be a margin of error that can never be removed. The maths/science says there should be a margin of error, that is the natural margin. Every error beyond that is not-natural and is due to a flawed pollster and their flawed "corrections" to try and address their known flaws.0 -
The EU seems to have little to do with it.Sean_F said:
Part of the problem is that some senior police officers are just stupid.Sandpit said:
What on Earth did she say for the police to be investigating it several months later?PlatoSaid said:FFS - I really don't like her, but this is absurd
Danny Shaw
West Midlands Police confirm Amber Rudd's speech to Conservative Party conference in Birmingham treated as a "hate incident"...
Maybe once we leave the EU we can enact a freedom of speech bill, rather than allowing the taking of offence to be a trump card?
Creating 'hate incidents' and not drafting the laws correctly - but is this via conspiracy or cockup? - seems part of a trend in which the state clamps down on individual freedom. Satire or other forms of free expression get blocked if one isn't careful.
If the EU hadn't declared the Snooper's Charter illegal, May the authoritarian would have got away with that too.0 -
It is a risk, although if their final poll produces a spike one way, counter to, or well beyond, the average then they can reasonably say that they hit an unlucky sample. But if every (or nearly every) pollster is out then that will be down to a systemic methodological flaw.david_herdson said:I've always been concerned by this. Polls have a natural margin of error (and 1 in 20 should even if perfect be outside the margin of error).
If a polling company does 20 polls, 19 are accurate but the 20th is the final one and is outside margin of error (or even in margin of error but at the extreme end of it) then have they "failed"?
Of course. I think the BPC should ban both methodology changes and selectively-deciding whether to publish* polls or not during the election campaign for instance.
Decide on your format, decide on whether you're going to publish the poll or not, get your sample apply your pre-determined methodology then publish it. No pratting around "fixing" the result. Between elections not during them should be the time to change methodology.
* Of course for privately-commissioned polls it wouldn't be their decision/0
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