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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Matthew Shaddick: Why the betting markets are over-rating Mari

SystemSystem Posts: 12,555
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Matthew Shaddick: Why the betting markets are over-rating Marine Le Pen’s chances

Ladbrokes are currently building up a very big liability on a Marine Le Pen victory in May’s French Presidential election. I’d be very surprised if that isn’t also the case with all of the other fixed-odds bookmakers offering odds.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,871
    Premier.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,320
    Second - like [insert name of French politician here]
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Troisieme! Comme Labour Ecosse
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    CarlottaVance said:

    Troisieme! Comme Labour Ecosse

    Allez-vous en vite Malc G :)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    12% for Marine Le Pen looks unnervingly high, given the system. Anyway, I agree with shadsy and laying her looks like very clear value at anything like current odds.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    More and more, being seen as part of the Trump insurgency is going to be damaging for politicians that aspire to power in Europe - including the UK.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,740
    What do people think of MLP to win first round at evens?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    edited January 2017
    Thanks @Shadsy, and good to see a bookie posting articles here.
    The lay on Marine is currently 4.6 on Betfair, which seems way too short. Plenty of liquidity around too. I'm in, as someone new to French political betting.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.117179983
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,122
    edited January 2017
    More news from the Garden Bridge:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38584895

    The trust behind a project to build a bridge covered with trees and shrubs across the Thames in London has revealed it is "unable to conclude it is a going concern".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    In among everything else that happened yesterday, even the Guardian has now come out against Max Mosely's press regulator.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/10/the-guardian-view-on-section-40-muzzling-journalism
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    @ Shadsy. Shhht!!

    Some of us are waiting until we get paid at the end of the month..
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited January 2017
    JosiasJessop said:

    More news from the Garden Bridge:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38584895

    The trust behind a project to build a bridge covered with trees and shrubs across the Thames in London has revealed it is "unable to conclude it is a going concern".

    Oh. Dave was really running out of judgement towards the end wasn't he. Instructing that more public money should be given to this pointless boondoggle of a project in the teeth of civil service advice. Another "Solihull Project" ?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited January 2017
    AlsoIndigo said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    More news from the Garden Bridge:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38584895

    The trust behind a project to build a bridge covered with trees and shrubs across the Thames in London has revealed it is "unable to conclude it is a going concern".

    Oh. Dave was really running out of judgement towards the end wasn't he. Instructing that more public money should be given to this pointless boondoggle of a project in the teeth of civil service advice. Another "Solihull Project" ?
    Small change compared with the many billions being wasted on Brexit.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    So Le Pen is a Bismarck.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,651
    So, about the recently released retail figures. Seems suprising to me that with little growth in wages and in theory increasing costs/prices that these businesses are growing. A sign of strength in the British economy?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,122
    AlsoIndigo said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    More news from the Garden Bridge:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38584895

    The trust behind a project to build a bridge covered with trees and shrubs across the Thames in London has revealed it is "unable to conclude it is a going concern".

    Oh. Dave was really running out of judgement towards the end wasn't he. Instructing that more public money should be given to this pointless boondoggle of a project in the teeth of civil service advice. Another "Solihull Project" ?
    Perhaps your ire would be better directed towards Boris, who was up to his neck in this terrible project.

    Everyone involved should repay the public money, from Lumley upwards.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    AlastairMeeks said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    More news from the Garden Bridge:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38584895

    The trust behind a project to build a bridge covered with trees and shrubs across the Thames in London has revealed it is "unable to conclude it is a going concern".

    Oh. Dave was really running out of judgement towards the end wasn't he. Instructing that more public money should be given to this pointless boondoggle of a project in the teeth of civil service advice. Another "Solihull Project" ?
    Small change compared with the many billions being wasted on Brexit.
    Running your good news filter on maximum as usual I see Alistair ;) Business is booming, the FTSE is on a record breaking run, even the usually po-faced Carney is seeing the upside, including many reasons for the EU to want to do a good deal with us. But yes I know, Farage, Trump, nasty working class people voting the wrong way, next!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    Tissue_Price said:

    So Le Pen is a Bismarck.

    You mean we're going to sink her?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    On topic, I agree with Shadsy, and I've been following a similar strategy.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    AlsoIndigo said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    More news from the Garden Bridge:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38584895

    The trust behind a project to build a bridge covered with trees and shrubs across the Thames in London has revealed it is "unable to conclude it is a going concern".

    Oh. Dave was really running out of judgement towards the end wasn't he. Instructing that more public money should be given to this pointless boondoggle of a project in the teeth of civil service advice. Another "Solihull Project" ?
    Small change compared with the many billions being wasted on Brexit.
    Running your good news filter on maximum as usual I see Alistair ;) Business is booming, the FTSE is on a record breaking run, even the usually po-faced Carney is seeing the upside, including many reasons for the EU to want to do a good deal with us. But yes I know, Farage, Trump, nasty working class people voting the wrong way, next!

    Most people with jobs voted to remain in the European Union - a lot of them were working class. What got Leave over the line were people who no longer need to work.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Gallowgate said:

    So, about the recently released retail figures. Seems suprising to me that with little growth in wages and in theory increasing costs/prices that these businesses are growing. A sign of strength in the British economy?

    A sign that the British love affair with the credit card is still in full swing.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/29/britains-borrowing-binge-continues-credit-growth-hits-11-year/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    JosiasJessop said:

    More news from the Garden Bridge:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38584895

    The trust behind a project to build a bridge covered with trees and shrubs across the Thames in London has revealed it is "unable to conclude it is a going concern".

    Boris is such a larf.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,464
    felix said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Troisieme! Comme Labour Ecosse

    Allez-vous en vite Malc G :)
    Perdants comme les tories, les deux joues de la même derrière
  • isamisam Posts: 42,140
    Nice article... but why aren't Ladbrokes best price Le Pen???
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    isam said:

    Nice article... but why aren't Ladbrokes best price Le Pen???

    Because Shadsy's taken enough money on her, doesn't want any more in case she does actually win.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,320
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    So Le Pen is a Bismarck.

    You mean we're going to sink her?
    The most bizarre commercial flight I have ever taken concluded with the Captain playing Johnny Horton's "We're gonna sink the Bismark" as we came in to land at Hannover....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,076
    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Troisieme! Comme Labour Ecosse

    Allez-vous en vite Malc G :)
    Perdants comme les tories, les deux joues de la même derrière
    Espèce de navet!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,033
    edited January 2017
    SouthamObserver said:

    More and more, being seen as part of the Trump insurgency is going to be damaging for politicians that aspire to power in Europe - including the UK.

    Disagree. It's very exciting; look what I can do and look what fun can be had just by me putting a little cross on this piece of paper.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    ‪I think this is a new @thetimes @YouGov poll. Lucky there's an extra £350m per week headed to the NHS.

    Voter concern about the health service has intensified since November. The NHS has leapt from the fourth most important issue facing the government to the second, putting it ahead of immigration and the economy, according to a YouGov poll.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-accused-of-stretching-the-truth-on-nhs-crisis-jdgnd065j‬
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Good morning, everyone.

    I agree with Mr. Shadsy. Been saying for a while the system could've been designed to stop someone like Le Pen from winning. (Worth noting several people [not me, followed the tip though] suggested Macron at 13, which seems sensible).
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    TOPPING said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    More and more, being seen as part of the Trump insurgency is going to be damaging for politicians that aspire to power in Europe - including the UK.

    Disagree. It's very exciting; look what I can do and look what fun can be had just by me putting a little cross on this piece of paper.

    That's the UKIP option and is priced in. To get power the Trump insurgents need to go from 15%-25% to 35% plus. In France they will need 50% + 1.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,033
    Polls have been wrong or ignored and that's all very well but if polls are unreliable predictors what on earth are the betting markets? Who in the name of PB are these people who supposedly are wiser than seasoned political commentators (and ofc PB-ers) who fight like cats in a sack over likely outcomes?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    So Le Pen is a Bismarck.

    You mean we're going to sink her?
    The most bizarre commercial flight I have ever taken concluded with the Captain playing Johnny Horton's "We're gonna sink the Bismark" as we came in to land at Hannover....
    Nothing beats landing in Hong Kong in bad weather.

    Plus I learned the hard way a Muslim chap shouldn't start begging to Allah on a plane.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,122
    TOPPING said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    More and more, being seen as part of the Trump insurgency is going to be damaging for politicians that aspire to power in Europe - including the UK.

    Disagree. It's very exciting; look what I can do and look what fun can be had just by me putting a little cross on this piece of paper.
    If they just had to put a cross on a piece of paper that'd be fine. Sadly, in all too many places in the US, you press a button that might, with fair wind and hope, mean that your vote is registered as you wish.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ‪I think this is a new @thetimes @YouGov poll. Lucky there's an extra £350m per week headed to the NHS.

    Voter concern about the health service has intensified since November. The NHS has leapt from the fourth most important issue facing the government to the second, putting it ahead of immigration and the economy, according to a YouGov poll.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-accused-of-stretching-the-truth-on-nhs-crisis-jdgnd065j‬

    Morning all. If people are pinning their hopes on the idea that £18b p.a. will fix the health service, they're deluded. It'll be back in crisis within two years.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    So Le Pen is a Bismarck.

    You mean we're going to sink her?
    The most bizarre commercial flight I have ever taken concluded with the Captain playing Johnny Horton's "We're gonna sink the Bismark" as we came in to land at Hannover....
    Nothing beats landing in Hong Kong in bad weather.

    Plus I learned the hard way a Muslim chap shouldn't start begging to Allah on a plane.
    The new Hong Kong is a cakewalk, compared to the landings they used to make at the old Kai Tak airport in the bay.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    NHS demand is growing at 4% a year, the economy at 2%. This type of crisis will continue as long as a proper funding settlement is not reached. And no it's not all because of European immigration
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    So Le Pen is a Bismarck.

    You mean we're going to sink her?
    The most bizarre commercial flight I have ever taken concluded with the Captain playing Johnny Horton's "We're gonna sink the Bismark" as we came in to land at Hannover....
    Nothing beats landing in Hong Kong in bad weather.

    Plus I learned the hard way a Muslim chap shouldn't start begging to Allah on a plane.
    The new Hong Kong is a cakewalk, compared to the landings they used to make at the old Kai Tak airport in the bay.
    Ooh. So I can go back to Hong Kong now, Kai Tak was terrifying.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Gallowgate said:

    So, about the recently released retail figures. Seems suprising to me that with little growth in wages and in theory increasing costs/prices that these businesses are growing. A sign of strength in the British economy?

    There have been a couple of pieces of data which have recently implied that:

    a) Household Disposable Income has grown quite substantially (ONS);
    b) The UK has been the most successful of western nations in growing wage income for be bottom 10% of earners (OECD, I think):

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Freggles said:

    NHS demand is growing at 4% a year, the economy at 2%. This type of crisis will continue as long as a proper funding settlement is not reached. And no it's not all because of European immigration

    No, it's because old, white, British people are selfishly living longer than they used to. In future, there will be even more of them (soon to be us) to look after as the option of heading south for the winter will be less attractive than it is now. And there will be less people to look after them/us given the restrictions on immigration that are coming.

  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    John_M said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ‪I think this is a new @thetimes @YouGov poll. Lucky there's an extra £350m per week headed to the NHS.

    Voter concern about the health service has intensified since November. The NHS has leapt from the fourth most important issue facing the government to the second, putting it ahead of immigration and the economy, according to a YouGov poll.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-accused-of-stretching-the-truth-on-nhs-crisis-jdgnd065j‬

    Morning all. If people are pinning their hopes on the idea that £18b p.a. will fix the health service, they're deluded. It'll be back in crisis within two years.
    The only way to fix it is to abandon "free at the point of use" - and the only way to do that is to suspend representative democracy. Which, I suspect, a fair few Peebies would really like to do...

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,464
    williamglenn said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Troisieme! Comme Labour Ecosse

    Allez-vous en vite Malc G :)
    Perdants comme les tories, les deux joues de la même derrière
    Espèce de navet!
    LOL
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    So Le Pen is a Bismarck.

    You mean we're going to sink her?
    The most bizarre commercial flight I have ever taken concluded with the Captain playing Johnny Horton's "We're gonna sink the Bismark" as we came in to land at Hannover....
    Nothing beats landing in Hong Kong in bad weather.

    Plus I learned the hard way a Muslim chap shouldn't start begging to Allah on a plane.
    The new Hong Kong is a cakewalk, compared to the landings they used to make at the old Kai Tak airport in the bay.
    Ooh. So I can go back to Hong Kong now, Kai Tak was terrifying.
    Kai Tak been shut for almost 20 years. International travel boast fail.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    I didn't get much time to read yesterday's posts, but I presume Macron's suggestion that an unreformed Euro is doomed within a decade were discussed?

    His solution - elever closer union - an integrated eurozone budget where Germany is required to 'invest' and austerity is wound down. That sounds like German taxes for Greek taxis to me.

    This criticism of the Euro, allied to Le Pen and Grillo et al, implies that the Euro is the likely cleave in terms of disagreement over the whole project.

    The Eurozone is the real EU. We left the EU years ago.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Freggles said:

    NHS demand is growing at 4% a year, the economy at 2%. This type of crisis will continue as long as a proper funding settlement is not reached. And no it's not all because of European immigration

    Reduce demand and improve the efficiency of supply then.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    matt said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    So Le Pen is a Bismarck.

    You mean we're going to sink her?
    The most bizarre commercial flight I have ever taken concluded with the Captain playing Johnny Horton's "We're gonna sink the Bismark" as we came in to land at Hannover....
    Nothing beats landing in Hong Kong in bad weather.

    Plus I learned the hard way a Muslim chap shouldn't start begging to Allah on a plane.
    The new Hong Kong is a cakewalk, compared to the landings they used to make at the old Kai Tak airport in the bay.
    Ooh. So I can go back to Hong Kong now, Kai Tak was terrifying.
    Kai Tak been shut for almost 20 years. International travel boast fail.
    That's my point, my last visit there traumatised me immensely, I need different venues to go to now, with Don's plans to ban me from les États Unis
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Mr Memory
    Sorry to hear of the death of Prof Anthony King age 82 - psephologist & election night stalwart + co-author of classic history of the SDP
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,871
    chestnut said:

    I didn't get much time to read yesterday's posts, but I presume Macron's suggestion that an unreformed Euro is doomed within a decade were discussed?

    His solution - elever closer union - an integrated eurozone budget where Germany is required to 'invest' and austerity is wound down. That sounds like German taxes for Greek taxis to me.

    This criticism of the Euro, allied to Le Pen and Grillo et al, implies that the Euro is the likely cleave in terms of disagreement over the whole project.

    The Eurozone is the real EU. We left the EU years ago.

    That sounds like a good plan from Macron: "Vote for me and I'll make the Germans pay!"
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Freggles said:

    NHS demand is growing at 4% a year, the economy at 2%. This type of crisis will continue as long as a proper funding settlement is not reached. And no it's not all because of European immigration

    Are you able to help me with a question. We get comparisons on spending as between different countries but do other countries have a a greater mix of public/private health spending constituting their total spend? In short, am I asking does our look low because it's in effect more reliant on tax proceeds recycling? I've looked but the data seems to be based on GDP and spending not government budgets and spending. Roughly 20% of each annual budget goes to health - is this high or low and is there an upper limit.

    If government spending is heading towards 50% on pensions and health what's left for the young?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    chestnut said:

    I didn't get much time to read yesterday's posts, but I presume Macron's suggestion that an unreformed Euro is doomed within a decade were discussed?

    His solution - elever closer union - an integrated eurozone budget where Germany is required to 'invest' and austerity is wound down. That sounds like German taxes for Greek taxis to me.

    This criticism of the Euro, allied to Le Pen and Grillo et al, implies that the Euro is the likely cleave in terms of disagreement over the whole project.

    The Eurozone is the real EU. We left the EU years ago.

    I regret to say we were distracted by Trump's shenanigans and the NHS (yet again) lurching into crisis. I think Macron's message to the Krauts is basically "pay up or the EZ gets it, capiche?".
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    matt said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    So Le Pen is a Bismarck.

    You mean we're going to sink her?
    The most bizarre commercial flight I have ever taken concluded with the Captain playing Johnny Horton's "We're gonna sink the Bismark" as we came in to land at Hannover....
    Nothing beats landing in Hong Kong in bad weather.

    Plus I learned the hard way a Muslim chap shouldn't start begging to Allah on a plane.
    The new Hong Kong is a cakewalk, compared to the landings they used to make at the old Kai Tak airport in the bay.
    Ooh. So I can go back to Hong Kong now, Kai Tak was terrifying.
    Kai Tak been shut for almost 20 years. International travel boast fail.
    That's my point, my last visit there traumatised me immensely, I need different venues to go to now, with Don's plans to ban me from les États Unis
    Shanghai.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    Awkward

    Chancellor Philip Hammond took personal stake in food technology company months before it won share of £560,000 Government contract

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/exclusive-chancellor-philip-hammond-took-personal-stake-food/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    PlatoSaid said:

    Mr Memory
    Sorry to hear of the death of Prof Anthony King age 82 - psephologist & election night stalwart + co-author of classic history of the SDP

    Very sad news. RIP.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    RIP Professor King.

    Interesting line from Macron.

    What position do German parties take over eurozone integration?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,708
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I agree with Shadsy, and I've been following a similar strategy.

    Agreed.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    Meanwhile, worth noting that (as predicted on this board by a number of posters some months ago) the City lobbying has now stepped away from demanding retention of passporting in favour of equivalence:

    https://www.ft.com/content/7ec41a92-d822-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

    Much more achievable.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,464
    Very interesting and true article..........
    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/01/bernie-sanders-trump-populism-new-yorker/
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Awkward

    Chancellor Philip Hammond took personal stake in food technology company months before it won share of £560,000 Government contract

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/exclusive-chancellor-philip-hammond-took-personal-stake-food/

    Toast?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,027
    AlsoIndigo said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    More news from the Garden Bridge:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38584895

    The trust behind a project to build a bridge covered with trees and shrubs across the Thames in London has revealed it is "unable to conclude it is a going concern".

    Oh. Dave was really running out of judgement towards the end wasn't he. Instructing that more public money should be given to this pointless boondoggle of a project in the teeth of civil service advice. Another "Solihull Project" ?
    Small change compared with the many billions being wasted on Brexit.
    Running your good news filter on maximum as usual I see Alistair ;) Business is booming, the FTSE is on a record breaking run, even the usually po-faced Carney is seeing the upside, including many reasons for the EU to want to do a good deal with us. But yes I know, Farage, Trump, nasty working class people voting the wrong way, next!
    Every silver lining has a cloud.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Morris_Dancer said:

    What position do German parties take over eurozone integration?

    I think it's fair to say that all mainstream parties like to pander to the illusion that the EU project and the Euro are somehow compatible with the continued existence (in any meaningful way) of EU nation states. Brexit, Le Pen, AfD, 5 star and other 'noises off' are starting to shine a light on this mendacity. At some point Germans will realise their role in the EU is to pay for everyone else. And the end of Germany as a sovereign country. If you're playing a round of poker and you're not sure who the patsy is then it's you.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Anthony King has died.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/819463231672582144
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,033
    edited January 2017
    Animal_pb said:

    Meanwhile, worth noting that (as predicted on this board by a number of posters some months ago) the City lobbying has now stepped away from demanding retention of passporting in favour of equivalence:

    https://www.ft.com/content/7ec41a92-d822-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

    Much more achievable.

    The key issue now for the sector is achieving a transitional period beyond April 2019 in order to reassure financial services firms that they don't face a "cliff edge" if negotiations go one way or another.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    So Le Pen is a Bismarck.

    You mean we're going to sink her?
    The most bizarre commercial flight I have ever taken concluded with the Captain playing Johnny Horton's "We're gonna sink the Bismark" as we came in to land at Hannover....
    Nothing beats landing in Hong Kong in bad weather.

    Plus I learned the hard way a Muslim chap shouldn't start begging to Allah on a plane.
    The new Hong Kong is a cakewalk, compared to the landings they used to make at the old Kai Tak airport in the bay.
    Ooh. So I can go back to Hong Kong now, Kai Tak was terrifying.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtnL4KYVtDE
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Awkward

    Chancellor Philip Hammond took personal stake in food technology company months before it won share of £560,000 Government contract

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/exclusive-chancellor-philip-hammond-took-personal-stake-food/

    Toast?
    Well my betting portfolio hopes so.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    TOPPING said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Meanwhile, worth noting that (as predicted on this board by a number of posters some months ago) the City lobbying has now stepped away from demanding retention of passporting in favour of equivalence:

    https://www.ft.com/content/7ec41a92-d822-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

    Much more achievable.

    The key issue now for the sector is achieving a transitional period beyond April 2019 in order to reassure financial services firms that they don't face a "cliff edge" if negotiations go one way or another.
    Indeed. In a very real sense, it's now becoming clear that the post-Article 50 negotiations will have to be about the transitional arrangements across this and other sectors, not the final settlement itself.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    Animal_pb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Meanwhile, worth noting that (as predicted on this board by a number of posters some months ago) the City lobbying has now stepped away from demanding retention of passporting in favour of equivalence:

    https://www.ft.com/content/7ec41a92-d822-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

    Much more achievable.

    The key issue now for the sector is achieving a transitional period beyond April 2019 in order to reassure financial services firms that they don't face a "cliff edge" if negotiations go one way or another.
    Indeed. In a very real sense, it's now becoming clear that the post-Article 50 negotiations will have to be about the transitional arrangements across this and other sectors, not the final settlement itself.
    So we're going to be the supplicants and not the EU?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,150
    Sean_F said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    More news from the Garden Bridge:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38584895

    The trust behind a project to build a bridge covered with trees and shrubs across the Thames in London has revealed it is "unable to conclude it is a going concern".

    Oh. Dave was really running out of judgement towards the end wasn't he. Instructing that more public money should be given to this pointless boondoggle of a project in the teeth of civil service advice. Another "Solihull Project" ?
    Small change compared with the many billions being wasted on Brexit.
    Running your good news filter on maximum as usual I see Alistair ;) Business is booming, the FTSE is on a record breaking run, even the usually po-faced Carney is seeing the upside, including many reasons for the EU to want to do a good deal with us. But yes I know, Farage, Trump, nasty working class people voting the wrong way, next!
    Every silver lining has a cloud.
    FTSE 250, which primarily British companies trading inb this country and nearby, is better than it was 12 months ago but beginning to tail off a little. Effects of devaluation?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,033
    edited January 2017
    Animal_pb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Meanwhile, worth noting that (as predicted on this board by a number of posters some months ago) the City lobbying has now stepped away from demanding retention of passporting in favour of equivalence:

    https://www.ft.com/content/7ec41a92-d822-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

    Much more achievable.

    The key issue now for the sector is achieving a transitional period beyond April 2019 in order to reassure financial services firms that they don't face a "cliff edge" if negotiations go one way or another.
    Indeed. In a very real sense, it's now becoming clear that the post-Article 50 negotiations will have to be about the transitional arrangements across this and other sectors, not the final settlement itself.
    Yes I think that's right - as I have banged on about at length on here, the government at this stage doesn't know which way is up and is still taking input from stakeholders. Then comes a strategy, then comes staffing up to execute that strategy. To think that this can be achieved in 26 months is not realistic.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This is quite amusing - three videos of CNN re Trump Buzzfeed

    http://truepundit.com/video-kellyanne-conway-tunes-cnns-anderson-cooper-up-like-piano-during-live-on-air-throw-down/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,122
    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Awkward

    Chancellor Philip Hammond took personal stake in food technology company months before it won share of £560,000 Government contract

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/exclusive-chancellor-philip-hammond-took-personal-stake-food/

    Toast?
    Don't think so, for several reasons. Firstly, according to the story the company pulled out and never got any public funds.

    But secondly, and most importantly, Labour isn't in any position to capitalise on it. They'll aim for him and shoot themselves in the foot.

    It does ask questions about Hammond's judgement though, and the excuses in the article are slightly sniffy.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    JosiasJessop said:

    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Awkward

    Chancellor Philip Hammond took personal stake in food technology company months before it won share of £560,000 Government contract

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/exclusive-chancellor-philip-hammond-took-personal-stake-food/

    Toast?
    Don't think so, for several reasons. Firstly, according to the story the company pulled out and never got any public funds.

    But secondly, and most importantly, Labour isn't in any position to capitalise on it. They'll aim for him and shoot themselves in the foot.

    It does ask questions about Hammond's judgement though, and the excuses in the article are slightly sniffy.
    I presumed that in the Telegraph world Hammond is showing worrying signs of realism and pragmatism. As such he needs replacing with someone more robust.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    https://twitter.com/Julian5News/status/819468933673680900
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    JosiasJessop said:

    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Awkward

    Chancellor Philip Hammond took personal stake in food technology company months before it won share of £560,000 Government contract

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/exclusive-chancellor-philip-hammond-took-personal-stake-food/

    Toast?
    Don't think so, for several reasons. Firstly, according to the story the company pulled out and never got any public funds.

    But secondly, and most importantly, Labour isn't in any position to capitalise on it. They'll aim for him and shoot themselves in the foot.

    It does ask questions about Hammond's judgement though, and the excuses in the article are slightly sniffy.
    Ironically, Hammond's biggest problem with this story that would normally be a six-day wonder might come from across the Atlantic, where the ongoing controversy about the business links of Donald Trump and some of his appointees might lead the British media to constantly refer to Hammond as a homegrown example.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    PlatoSaid said:

    This is quite amusing - three videos of CNN re Trump Buzzfeed

    http://truepundit.com/video-kellyanne-conway-tunes-cnns-anderson-cooper-up-like-piano-during-live-on-air-throw-down/

    Plato, truly interested in your view here. If (a very big if I know) the reports of the goings on in Russia were true, would it impact your view on Trump's suitability for office?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    FPT:
    Y0kel said:

    williamglenn said:

    Y0kel said:

    So I wonder then about the reports from BBC journalists on this suggesting there is perhaps more than one incident, more than one compromising situation.

    What if its more, not just about his leisure activities. Just, more.

    The original report was commissioned and paid for by political opponents of Trump in the US. If Christopher Steele went around his contacts offering money for information about whether they had compromising material on Trump and whether Trump was working for them, it seems self-evident that he will be able to find people who, for whatever reason, will say 'yes' and who will also have access to enough other relevant information to piece together a story that is superficially plausible. I think MonikerDiCanio has him bang to rights.
    Lets call a spade a spade, Trump could piss on your loved ones in front of you and you'd still call it fake.

    Intelligence agencies have been aware of possible issues with Trump and the Russians for YEARS. Steele's report was part triggered for commissioning because US agencies warned the GOP that Trump might have some significant difficulties as a candidate.

    I know this post is from yesterday but the bit in bold is so applicable to significant sections on this site that it's unreal.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Freggles said:

    NHS demand is growing at 4% a year, the economy at 2%. This type of crisis will continue as long as a proper funding settlement is not reached. And no it's not all because of European immigration

    People have to start taking more responsibility for their own health instead of outsourcing it to the A&E department.

    In particular prevent poor health by avoiding smoking and excessive drinking; taking regular exercise; eat more fruit and veg.

    Don't expect to indulge and that the NHS can make everything right again.



  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    dr_spyn said:

    Anthony King has died.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/819463231672582144

    Terrrrrrrible news...
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited January 2017
    The_Apocalypse said:

    FPT:

    Y0kel said:

    williamglenn said:

    Y0kel said:

    So I wonder then about the reports from BBC journalists on this suggesting there is perhaps more than one incident, more than one compromising situation.

    What if its more, not just about his leisure activities. Just, more.

    The original report was commissioned and paid for by political opponents of Trump in the US. If Christopher Steele went around his contacts offering money for information about whether they had compromising material on Trump and whether Trump was working for them, it seems self-evident that he will be able to find people who, for whatever reason, will say 'yes' and who will also have access to enough other relevant information to piece together a story that is superficially plausible. I think MonikerDiCanio has him bang to rights.
    Lets call a spade a spade, Trump could piss on your loved ones in front of you and you'd still call it fake.

    Intelligence agencies have been aware of possible issues with Trump and the Russians for YEARS. Steele's report was part triggered for commissioning because US agencies warned the GOP that Trump might have some significant difficulties as a candidate.

    I know this post is from yesterday but the bit in bold is so applicable to significant sections on this site that it's unreal.
    Trump is clearly a disaster waiting to happen, that being the case why was all this juicy material not highlighted at some length by the (largely) hostile media ? Instead we had to put up with all sorts of tendentious bullshit concerning what he may or may not have said a couple of decades ago, which was clearly never going to slow him down.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Mr. Evershed, surcharges for those who suffer self-inflicted injury whilst pissed may be a policy one party or another adopts [doubt it, though].

    Smoking is another matter. Smoking duties are so high that smokers subsidise the NHS. If everyone stopped smoking, NHS finances would worsen.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,114
    I see that Jezza's relaunch has moved on to defence policy. All looks to be going well.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Health costs are rising because the population is ageing. In other words, they are rising because people are taking better care of themselves, not worse.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    From December.....

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/819473863893483520
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Mr. Rentool, his aspiration of abolishing the armed forces, like Costa Rica, is sure to be a vote-winner.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,740
    Someone else posted on here about Trump survival odds...

    But it really is amazing that you can get better than evens on him making it to 2020. Add in 2019... And it's around a 40% return in just under two years that a republican congress and senate won't impeach him... Or that he won't resign.
    Not 100% sure what happens if he dies according to market rules.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Not sure where it can be seen in the UK, but the intro to The Daily Show yesterday was fantastic. James Bond spoof called GoldShower.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    This'll go well down in Copeland.

    ‪@christopherhope: Jeremy Corbyn backed decommissioning ALL nuclear power stations, new recording reveals @BBCr4today‬
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Evershed, surcharges for those who suffer self-inflicted injury whilst pissed may be a policy one party or another adopts [doubt it, though].

    Smoking is another matter. Smoking duties are so high that smokers subsidise the NHS. If everyone stopped smoking, NHS finances would worsen.

    Not to mention it reduces care costs for people in their old age and frees up council houses for young families.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited January 2017
    SouthamObserver said:

    More and more, being seen as part of the Trump insurgency is going to be damaging for politicians that aspire to power in Europe - including the UK.

    Agreed.
    AlsoIndigo said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    FPT:

    Y0kel said:

    williamglenn said:

    Y0kel said:

    So I wonder then about the reports from BBC journalists on this suggesting there is perhaps more than one incident, more than one compromising situation.

    What if its more, not just about his leisure activities. Just, more.

    The original report was commissioned and paid for by political opponents of Trump in the US. If Christopher Steele went around his contacts offering money for information about whether they had compromising material on Trump and whether Trump was working for them, it seems self-evident that he will be able to find people who, for whatever reason, will say 'yes' and who will also have access to enough other relevant information to piece together a story that is superficially plausible. I think MonikerDiCanio has him bang to rights.
    Lets call a spade a spade, Trump could piss on your loved ones in front of you and you'd still call it fake.

    Intelligence agencies have been aware of possible issues with Trump and the Russians for YEARS. Steele's report was part triggered for commissioning because US agencies warned the GOP that Trump might have some significant difficulties as a candidate.

    I know this post is from yesterday but the bit in bold is so applicable to significant sections on this site that it's unreal.
    Trump is clearly a disaster waiting to happen, that being the case why was all this juicy material not highlighted at some length by the (largely) hostile media ? Instead we had to put up with all sorts of tendentious bullshit concerning what he may or may not have said a couple of decades ago, which was clearly never going to slow him down.
    Maybe they (the media) don't have access to that material right now. It looks like its intelligence services which have got the major info on Trump and his dealings from Y0kel's posts.

    Also agree with Pong from the last thread re. Obama. Just just as Dubya essentially made Bill Clinton look amazing, Trump will do the same to Obama. The man is a disaster waiting to happen, and it's telling that (outside of PB) so many across the political spectrum think this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/819475638239236096
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This'll go well down in Copeland.

    ‪@christopherhope: Jeremy Corbyn backed decommissioning ALL nuclear power stations, new recording reveals @BBCr4today‬

    That Labour relaunchcrater is going well. What with that and the row with his defense spokesman over NATO, and his bon mots on benefits of open borders the day after he was trailed as having something to say on toughening up immigration, its all going terribly well.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    PlatoSaid said:

    This is quite amusing - three videos of CNN re Trump Buzzfeed

    http://truepundit.com/video-kellyanne-conway-tunes-cnns-anderson-cooper-up-like-piano-during-live-on-air-throw-down/

    If Kellyanne Conway was British, she'd be looking at a knighthood for her performances as Trump's spokesperson over the past six months. Reminds me of an American Alastair Campbell.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,639
    AlsoIndigo said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    FPT:

    Y0kel said:

    williamglenn said:

    Y0kel said:

    So I wonder then about the reports from BBC journalists on this suggesting there is perhaps more than one incident, more than one compromising situation.

    What if its more, not just about his leisure activities. Just, more.

    The original report was commissioned and paid for by political opponents of Trump in the US. If Christopher Steele went around his contacts offering money for information about whether they had compromising material on Trump and whether Trump was working for them, it seems self-evident that he will be able to find people who, for whatever reason, will say 'yes' and who will also have access to enough other relevant information to piece together a story that is superficially plausible. I think MonikerDiCanio has him bang to rights.
    Lets call a spade a spade, Trump could piss on your loved ones in front of you and you'd still call it fake.

    Intelligence agencies have been aware of possible issues with Trump and the Russians for YEARS. Steele's report was part triggered for commissioning because US agencies warned the GOP that Trump might have some significant difficulties as a candidate.

    I know this post is from yesterday but the bit in bold is so applicable to significant sections on this site that it's unreal.
    Trump is clearly a disaster waiting to happen, that being the case why was all this juicy material not highlighted at some length by the (largely) hostile media ? Instead we had to put up with all sorts of tendentious bullshit concerning what he may or may not have said a couple of decades ago, which was clearly never going to slow him down.
    Morning all,

    I had assumed that we would be in for a very rough ride, but that Trump would make the 4 years. After watching the press conference on news last night it is very difficult not to come to the same conclusion as Dan Hodges: Trump is clinically insane.

    Impeachment awaits at some point, the question is how far will he have gone.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,740
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Evershed, surcharges for those who suffer self-inflicted injury whilst pissed may be a policy one party or another adopts [doubt it, though].

    Smoking is another matter. Smoking duties are so high that smokers subsidise the NHS. If everyone stopped smoking, NHS finances would worsen.

    The big issue with smokers is that they tend to die young and therefore save the health services considerable costs associated with elderly people. Future healthcare costs are often not included in health economics evaluation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,639
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This'll go well down in Copeland.

    ‪@christopherhope: Jeremy Corbyn backed decommissioning ALL nuclear power stations, new recording reveals @BBCr4today‬

    Oh dear. Let the leaflets be printed.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    PlatoSaid said:

    Mr Memory
    Sorry to hear of the death of Prof Anthony King age 82 - psephologist & election night stalwart + co-author of classic history of the SDP

    Always sad to hear of someone meeting his maker.

    About the book - What did he do in the afternoon?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,122
    David_Evershed said:

    Freggles said:

    NHS demand is growing at 4% a year, the economy at 2%. This type of crisis will continue as long as a proper funding settlement is not reached. And no it's not all because of European immigration

    People have to start taking more responsibility for their own health instead of outsourcing it to the A&E department.

    In particular prevent poor health by avoiding smoking and excessive drinking; taking regular exercise; eat more fruit and veg.

    Don't expect to indulge and that the NHS can make everything right again.
    " taking regular exercise"

    So far this year I've walked or run 120 miles, mainly by going out for an hour or more most mornings and evenings. That's about eleven miles a day.

    And my f'ing fitness tracker still says: "could do better"

    I'm looking after a toddler, you useless piece of electronic dross. How the f'ing 'eck do you expect me to do 'better'? And what does 'better' even mean?

    (Throws mobile and watch into bin)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,608
    Looks like Mrs May is throwing the kitchen sink at Copeland and making it all about Corbyn
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This'll go well down in Copeland.

    ‪@christopherhope: Jeremy Corbyn backed decommissioning ALL nuclear power stations, new recording reveals @BBCr4today‬

    That's another Tory poster for Copeland, to add to all the others. Jamie Reed messed up by giving notice of his resignation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,639
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Health costs are rising because the population is ageing. In other words, they are rising because people are taking better care of themselves, not worse.

    and Coyne has released his manifesto to "clean up" UNITE.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Mrs May is throwing the kitchen sink at Copeland and making it all about Corbyn

    Even she wants a better opposition.
This discussion has been closed.