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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Matthew Shaddick: Why the betting markets are over-rating Mari

Ladbrokes are currently building up a very big liability on a Marine Le Pen victory in May’s French Presidential election. I’d be very surprised if that isn’t also the case with all of the other fixed-odds bookmakers offering odds.
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The lay on Marine is currently 4.6 on Betfair, which seems way too short. Plenty of liquidity around too. I'm in, as someone new to French political betting.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.117179983
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38584895
The trust behind a project to build a bridge covered with trees and shrubs across the Thames in London has revealed it is "unable to conclude it is a going concern".
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/10/the-guardian-view-on-section-40-muzzling-journalism
Some of us are waiting until we get paid at the end of the month..
Everyone involved should repay the public money, from Lumley upwards.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/29/britains-borrowing-binge-continues-credit-growth-hits-11-year/
Voter concern about the health service has intensified since November. The NHS has leapt from the fourth most important issue facing the government to the second, putting it ahead of immigration and the economy, according to a YouGov poll.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-accused-of-stretching-the-truth-on-nhs-crisis-jdgnd065j
I agree with Mr. Shadsy. Been saying for a while the system could've been designed to stop someone like Le Pen from winning. (Worth noting several people [not me, followed the tip though] suggested Macron at 13, which seems sensible).
Plus I learned the hard way a Muslim chap shouldn't start begging to Allah on a plane.
a) Household Disposable Income has grown quite substantially (ONS);
b) The UK has been the most successful of western nations in growing wage income for be bottom 10% of earners (OECD, I think):
His solution - elever closer union - an integrated eurozone budget where Germany is required to 'invest' and austerity is wound down. That sounds like German taxes for Greek taxis to me.
This criticism of the Euro, allied to Le Pen and Grillo et al, implies that the Euro is the likely cleave in terms of disagreement over the whole project.
The Eurozone is the real EU. We left the EU years ago.
Sorry to hear of the death of Prof Anthony King age 82 - psephologist & election night stalwart + co-author of classic history of the SDP
If government spending is heading towards 50% on pensions and health what's left for the young?
Chancellor Philip Hammond took personal stake in food technology company months before it won share of £560,000 Government contract
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/exclusive-chancellor-philip-hammond-took-personal-stake-food/
Interesting line from Macron.
What position do German parties take over eurozone integration?
https://www.ft.com/content/7ec41a92-d822-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e
Much more achievable.
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/01/bernie-sanders-trump-populism-new-yorker/
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/819463231672582144
http://truepundit.com/video-kellyanne-conway-tunes-cnns-anderson-cooper-up-like-piano-during-live-on-air-throw-down/
But secondly, and most importantly, Labour isn't in any position to capitalise on it. They'll aim for him and shoot themselves in the foot.
It does ask questions about Hammond's judgement though, and the excuses in the article are slightly sniffy.
In particular prevent poor health by avoiding smoking and excessive drinking; taking regular exercise; eat more fruit and veg.
Don't expect to indulge and that the NHS can make everything right again.
Smoking is another matter. Smoking duties are so high that smokers subsidise the NHS. If everyone stopped smoking, NHS finances would worsen.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/819473863893483520
But it really is amazing that you can get better than evens on him making it to 2020. Add in 2019... And it's around a 40% return in just under two years that a republican congress and senate won't impeach him... Or that he won't resign.
Not 100% sure what happens if he dies according to market rules.
@christopherhope: Jeremy Corbyn backed decommissioning ALL nuclear power stations, new recording reveals @BBCr4today
Also agree with Pong from the last thread re. Obama. Just just as Dubya essentially made Bill Clinton look amazing, Trump will do the same to Obama. The man is a disaster waiting to happen, and it's telling that (outside of PB) so many across the political spectrum think this.
I had assumed that we would be in for a very rough ride, but that Trump would make the 4 years. After watching the press conference on news last night it is very difficult not to come to the same conclusion as Dan Hodges: Trump is clinically insane.
Impeachment awaits at some point, the question is how far will he have gone.
About the book - What did he do in the afternoon?
So far this year I've walked or run 120 miles, mainly by going out for an hour or more most mornings and evenings. That's about eleven miles a day.
And my f'ing fitness tracker still says: "could do better"
I'm looking after a toddler, you useless piece of electronic dross. How the f'ing 'eck do you expect me to do 'better'? And what does 'better' even mean?
(Throws mobile and watch into bin)