politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn and his party’s biggest challenge is making headway amo

Floater said:

Chris_A said:

Essexit said:

Chris_A said:

SeanT said:

Question for PB Remainers: aren't you even SLIGHTLY excited by the possibilities of Brexit? The reviving of Westminster politics? The new and unexpected potentialities?

I get that convinced EU-federalists like williamglenn see Brexit as an evil, from which nothing good can come, which only destroys his European identity, but the more moderate Remainers must, surely, occasionally, thrill to the idea of freedom, or at least see the good in repatriating all these powers to our Mother of Parliaments?

No?

Absolutely not. I have gained no freedoms and will lose many.

The biggest freedom I have lost is that of not having to worry about our future peace.

Blimey. Do you actually believe that forcing divergent countries into a union was really going to preserve peace, or that Britain's departure will somehow cause WW3?

We will have to wait and see. The peace has been kept for the last 70 years by the EU.

oh, this ones a keeper.

How do you think the EU did in the Ukraine?

Rather better than Trump's buddy Putin did there!

RobD said:

Chris_A said:

RobD said:

Chris_A said:

RobD said:

Chris_A said:

We haven't regained independence. We still pool sovereignty by being members of organisations like UN, NATO etc. You Brexiteers are obsessed by some imaginary sovereignty which you reckon we had and lost and have now regained. As I said below it is complete and utter bollocks.

We will have regained some sovereignty once we leave, surely?

Some but we will still be bound by every other international treaty we have entered.

Take energy policy. We couldn't dig out and burn the hundreds of years of coal reserves we have under our feet because we are bound by our obligations to the Kyoto Treaty,

You join a club, union, anything for mutual benefit fully realising that you will have both rights and obligations. If you don't your utterly stupid, but that probably sums up a large number of Leavers.

Who is arguing we don't have rights and obligations? Once we leave the EU, some sovereignty will be returned to Westminster.

Then you agree - we will lose rights by leaving.

As to the comment that it will take a generation to resolve, I will never be reconciled to the numpties led like sheep into the voting booths to vote Leave.

Who argued we won't lose rights - of course we will. The right to freedom of movement (if we leave single market), right to have MEPs, right to have the EU flag on our driver's license.. etc etc

I have the Union Jack on my driving licence which has just renewed as I shall be 73 next month

nielh said:

@SeanT

This debate is basically a waste of time, we don't know what Brexit will be like because it is tied up with too much uncertainty about everything else that is happening in the world at the moment. It may be good and it may be bad, its probably best to be open minded about it. But a brexit that is "good" for us and bad for the EU is not good in my opinion becuase our fate is tied up with the continent of Europe as it always has been.

From a purely selfish personal perspective I would have preferred the continuity remain position because it did provide for things like the ability to retire in Europe, the possibility of transferring things like healthcare, national insurance and benefits and the right to live freely in Europe without the hindrance of visas and petty daily bureaucracy. For someone on a modest wage with an EU spouse this is all pretty important stuff, more important even than abstract questions about sovereignty particuarly when 95% of the people I have ever met in my life have little or nothing to say about politics, nation or identity.

I don't think that your enlightened democracy will arrive but I live in genuine hope. For what its worth I think we will get bounced in to ill advised trade deals that end up ceding far more soveriegnty that we ceded to the EU and we will get bogged down in distractions like scottish independence for many years to come and we won't make much progress at all but as ever i'm happy to be corrected by events.

In general I struggle really to see what makes us here in the UK special and in many respects I think that other northern European countries are way ahead of us on many issues. They build better housing with proper playspace, bins and cycle stores, have better infrastructure, have fewer people in their jails etc. Then again I do also feel like this is my home and I feel an emotional attachment to it, and I don't want a life in exile even if it would be extremely easy for me to go down that road.

The Brexit problem has been over our heads for four decades, I agree it has been conclusively resolved with the referendum result so now that has to be implemented. Maybe we will be ultimately humbled as a nation by the reality of Brexit, but before that can happen it needs to be put in to effect.

Switzerland, Norway and Iceland are all outside the EU, much smaller than the UK and doing very nicely thankyou, in fact they are more prosperous than the EU average

MTimT said:

RobD said:

Chris_A said:

We haven't regained independence. We still pool sovereignty by being members of organisations like UN, NATO etc. You Brexiteers are obsessed by some imaginary sovereignty which you reckon we had and lost and have now regained. As I said below it is complete and utter bollocks.

We will have regained some sovereignty once we leave, surely?

Rob D, See my answer to Chris A. He is mostly talking through his arse. The amount of sovereignty ceded to the UN proper is minuscule. The amount we cede through treaties is also tiny in comparison to that ceded to the EU, and in any case can be reclaimed at any time through fairly straightforward processes to terminate treaty obligations.

nevertheless the principle iI'd the same even if the degree is different and you may also come different conclusions on the value of the trade off. You pool sovereignty with constraints on your actions because you believe it benefits you and because it allows you to influence the wider community

ALL ABOARD

http://www.dallascowboys.com/sites/dallascowboys.com/files/bandwagonapp.pdf

foxinsoxuk said:

Floater said:

Chris_A said:

Essexit said:

Chris_A said:

SeanT said:

Question for PB Remainers: aren't you even SLIGHTLY excited by the possibilities of Brexit? The reviving of Westminster politics? The new and unexpected potentialities?

I get that convinced EU-federalists like williamglenn see Brexit as an evil, from which nothing good can come, which only destroys his European identity, but the more moderate Remainers must, surely, occasionally, thrill to the idea of freedom, or at least see the good in repatriating all these powers to our Mother of Parliaments?

No?

Absolutely not. I have gained no freedoms and will lose many.

The biggest freedom I have lost is that of not having to worry about our future peace.

Blimey. Do you actually believe that forcing divergent countries into a union was really going to preserve peace, or that Britain's departure will somehow cause WW3?

We will have to wait and see. The peace has been kept for the last 70 years by the EU.

oh, this ones a keeper.

How do you think the EU did in the Ukraine?

Rather better than Trump's buddy Putin did there!

You do know that EU "policy" ( I will have to use the term lightly) actually inflamed the situation, right?

Chris_A said:

Essexit said:

Chris_A said:

SeanT said:

Question for PB Remainers: aren't you even SLIGHTLY excited by the possibilities of Brexit? The reviving of Westminster politics? The new and unexpected potentialities?

I get that convinced EU-federalists like williamglenn see Brexit as an evil, from which nothing good can come, which only destroys his European identity, but the more moderate Remainers must, surely, occasionally, thrill to the idea of freedom, or at least see the good in repatriating all these powers to our Mother of Parliaments?

No?

Absolutely not. I have gained no freedoms and will lose many.

The biggest freedom I have lost is that of not having to worry about our future peace.

Blimey. Do you actually believe that forcing divergent countries into a union was really going to preserve peace, or that Britain's departure will somehow cause WW3?

We will have to wait and see. The peace has been kept for the last 70 years by the EU.

No, correlation =/= causation. You accuse Leavers of being stupid sheep elsewhere in this thread, then make the simplest logical fallacy going.

Dura_Ace said:

SeanT said:

Question for PB Remainers: aren't you even SLIGHTLY excited by the possibilities of Brexit? The reviving of Westminster politics? The new and unexpected potentialities?

I get that convinced EU-federalists like williamglenn see Brexit as an evil, from which nothing good can come, which only destroys his European identity, but the more moderate Remainers must, surely, occasionally, thrill to the idea of freedom, or at least see the good in repatriating all these powers to our Mother of Parliaments?

No?

No, it's an intellectually bankrupt retreat to reactionary values. I hope and pray it's a complete disaster that results in economic ruin and the disintegration of the UK.

Blimey.

Ishmael_Z said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Anorak said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/818934897024831490

It's good for manufacturing; natural correction; nothing to see here; there are no tanks in Baghdad.

The £ is near historic lows against the dollar (and thus other currencies), but it is not especially weak against the euro.

But what do you expect, anyway? The UK has decided on a radical departure in its politics, a huge rupture in its trading and business situation, we're like a family that's decided to gut the house, and completely redo the place, down to the wiring and plumbing. You can anticipate some discomfort, for several years. Dust. Noise. Rubble. Workmen whistling in an annoying way.

But in the end we will have a lovely new home.

I think the £ will take a battering over the period from March 2017 to Nov 17 because we will ask for maximum single market access and immigration controls, and Barnier, Verhofstadt and Tusk/Juncker will tell us to go and do something that's physically impossible to ourselves.

May won't compromise. And neither will they. So the markets will gradually wake up to the fact May actually means it, and so do the EU, assume an ultra-hard Brexit and so the pound will steadily slide. It will aided along the way by as many apocalyptic announcements from the EU of the consequences as possible.

THIS IS DELIBERATE. The EU wants maximum market pressure on Sterling. It will be like a real-time Remain campaign run by the EU, but, they hope, with real fear this time.

The hope is that by a no-holds bar, no compromising position, and immense market pressure on the currency, it will scare the Brits off leaving and/or lead to impossible political pressure on May.

I think they are wrong, but it's not impossible they are right.

I think most Brits don't really care that much about the currency except if they work in the City or go abroad regularly or buy a lot of foreign goods so I doubt it will make much difference, ...

Bloody hell. That would have been an excellent point when Wilson made his "pound in your pocket" speech. Do you think the peasantry all still flock to Blackpool during wakes week for their hols? And that their iphones and cars and plasma tvs are hand-crafted in the Midlands?

Apart from maybe a week or 2 in Spain the average Brit does not venture abroad the entire year and many will do staycations for a time if they get more control over immigration, it is perfectly easy to buy most of your food and drink from British sources and how often do people buy a new TV, phone or car, not even once a year!

Floater said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Floater said:

Chris_A said:

Essexit said:

Chris_A said:

SeanT said:

Question for PB Remainers: aren't you even SLIGHTLY excited by the possibilities of Brexit? The reviving of Westminster politics? The new and unexpected potentialities?

I get that convinced EU-federalists like williamglenn see Brexit as an evil, from which nothing good can come, which only destroys his European identity, but the more moderate Remainers must, surely, occasionally, thrill to the idea of freedom, or at least see the good in repatriating all these powers to our Mother of Parliaments?

No?

Absolutely not. I have gained no freedoms and will lose many.

The biggest freedom I have lost is that of not having to worry about our future peace.

Blimey. Do you actually believe that forcing divergent countries into a union was really going to preserve peace, or that Britain's departure will somehow cause WW3?

We will have to wait and see. The peace has been kept for the last 70 years by the EU.

oh, this ones a keeper.

How do you think the EU did in the Ukraine?

Rather better than Trump's buddy Putin did there!

You do know that EU "policy" ( I will have to use the term lightly) actually inflamed the situation, right?

You do know that Putin invaded a sovereign country, annexed land and shot a plane load of neutral civilians out of the sky? Rather trumps anything the EU did!

1. Be aware that the sensational is a good way of spreading more substantive information below it.

2. One way to destroy is to ruin an individuals credibility and any sense of respect for them.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobD said:

Chris_A said:

RobD said:

Chris_A said:

RobD said:

Chris_A said:

We haven't regained independence. We still pool sovereignty by being members of organisations like UN, NATO etc. You Brexiteers are obsessed by some imaginary sovereignty which you reckon we had and lost and have now regained. As I said below it is complete and utter bollocks.

We will have regained some sovereignty once we leave, surely?

Some but we will still be bound by every other international treaty we have entered.

Take energy policy. We couldn't dig out and burn the hundreds of years of coal reserves we have under our feet because we are bound by our obligations to the Kyoto Treaty,

You join a club, union, anything for mutual benefit fully realising that you will have both rights and obligations. If you don't your utterly stupid, but that probably sums up a large number of Leavers.

Who is arguing we don't have rights and obligations? Once we leave the EU, some sovereignty will be returned to Westminster.

Then you agree - we will lose rights by leaving.

As to the comment that it will take a generation to resolve, I will never be reconciled to the numpties led like sheep into the voting booths to vote Leave.

Who argued we won't lose rights - of course we will. The right to freedom of movement (if we leave single market), right to have MEPs, right to have the EU flag on our driver's license.. etc etc

I have the Union Jack on my driving licence which has just renewed as I shall be 73 next month

And I have the Welsh Dragon on my number plates

Charlotte Church?

Essexit said:

Chris_A said:

Essexit said:

Chris_A said:

SeanT said:

Question for PB Remainers: aren't you even SLIGHTLY excited by the possibilities of Brexit? The reviving of Westminster politics? The new and unexpected potentialities?

I get that convinced EU-federalists like williamglenn see Brexit as an evil, from which nothing good can come, which only destroys his European identity, but the more moderate Remainers must, surely, occasionally, thrill to the idea of freedom, or at least see the good in repatriating all these powers to our Mother of Parliaments?

No?

Absolutely not. I have gained no freedoms and will lose many.

The biggest freedom I have lost is that of not having to worry about our future peace.

Blimey. Do you actually believe that forcing divergent countries into a union was really going to preserve peace, or that Britain's departure will somehow cause WW3?

We will have to wait and see. The peace has been kept for the last 70 years by the EU.

No, correlation =/= causation. You accuse Leavers of being stupid sheep elsewhere in this thread, then make the simplest logical fallacy going.

you're over his head

There was never any suggestion that it was the Russians that 'shot the airliner out of the sky' (the official, though widely disputed claim is that it was Ukranian separatist rebels that shot down the plane). christ the standard of discussion on here these days really is poor.

SeanT said:

nielh said:

@SeanT

This debate is basically a waste of time,

It's not zero sum. A Brexit can be good for the UK and ALSO good for the EU, or its constituent nations. God knows the EU needs reform (as everyone admits), if Brexit can't trigger this reform (and I confess I doubt it) then what will? Nothing, and it is therefore doomed to decline and eventual dissolution. And we are better off out, anyhow.

Possibly. But the reform that is needed is probably more integration and we were always a brake on that.
Many people i've met in Western Europe are true believers in the EU. They don't have a problem with the bizarre system of law making. They don't have a problem with complying with the directives. Their idea of success is to be prominent in the EU. Their countries were never 'great' in the first place. They worry more about external threats and to that end take the view that countries are stronger together and are internationalist in their outlook.
I think we've got it wrong in that in the last six months we have just stuck two fingers up at the EU in a totally juvenile way without being mindful that - because of the way article 50 is drafted - they hold all the cards over our departure.
The home office are writing letters to EU citizens of 20 years plus with UK kids telling them - inaccurately - that they have no right to stay in the UK and must make arrangements to leave. This is being reported in the media across Europe. And our home secretary is not intervening, not saying anything. As usual the silence says lots.
Its not a good start because it plays in to the narrative on the part of the EU that the UK is a destructive force that must be neutered and humbled.
When looking at events like this, its hard not to be sympathetic to the EU position.

Dura_Ace said:

SeanT said:

Question for PB Remainers: aren't you even SLIGHTLY excited by the possibilities of Brexit? The reviving of Westminster politics? The new and unexpected potentialities?

I get that convinced EU-federalists like williamglenn see Brexit as an evil, from which nothing good can come, which only destroys his European identity, but the more moderate Remainers must, surely, occasionally, thrill to the idea of freedom, or at least see the good in repatriating all these powers to our Mother of Parliaments?

No?

No, it's an intellectually bankrupt retreat to reactionary values. I hope and pray it's a complete disaster that results in economic ruin and the disintegration of the UK.

Perhaps you should move to somewhere you might feel more at home, Brussels for instance

williamglenn said:

...They're even trying to suggest Trump was working as a spy for the Russians.

So he's a millionaire who spies for the Russians and likes being pissed on by prostitutes.

Thinks

No, I got nothing.

Just as a final note in advance of a Trump Tantrum.

This release has a strangely non-US agency stamp.

The next ones may not.

BBC and Sky seem uncharacteristically slow to pick up on CNN story about Trump.

Good timing...

Fox News Secretly Settled Bill O’Reilly Sexual Harassment Case: Reports
He allegedly pursued a sexual relationship with a fellow anchor in 2011.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/fox-news-bill-oreilly-sexual-harassment_us_58751982e4b02b5f858b59f9

MTimT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC and Sky seem uncharacteristically slow to pick up on CNN story about Trump.

Perhaps they've had the source material long enough to have had a look into it ... It used to be called journalism.

I think they're waiting for @Plato to call it.

ReggieCide said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobD said:

Chris_A said:

RobD said:

Chris_A said:

RobD said:

Chris_A said:

We haven't regained independence. We still pool sovereignty by being members of organisations like UN, NATO etc. You Brexiteers are obsessed by some imaginary sovereignty which you reckon we had and lost and have now regained. As I said below it is complete and utter bollocks.

We will have regained some sovereignty once we leave, surely?

Some but we will still be bound by every other international treaty we have entered.

Take energy policy. We couldn't dig out and burn the hundreds of years of coal reserves we have under our feet because we are bound by our obligations to the Kyoto Treaty,

You join a club, union, anything for mutual benefit fully realising that you will have both rights and obligations. If you don't your utterly stupid, but that probably sums up a large number of Leavers.

Who is arguing we don't have rights and obligations? Once we leave the EU, some sovereignty will be returned to Westminster.

Then you agree - we will lose rights by leaving.

As to the comment that it will take a generation to resolve, I will never be reconciled to the numpties led like sheep into the voting booths to vote Leave.

Who argued we won't lose rights - of course we will. The right to freedom of movement (if we leave single market), right to have MEPs, right to have the EU flag on our driver's license.. etc etc

I have the Union Jack on my driving licence which has just renewed as I shall be 73 next month

And I have the Welsh Dragon on my number plates

Charlotte Church?

Since I have had Welsh number plates from long before she was born - no but it is a good comment

MTimT said:

Y0kel said:

1. Be aware that the sensational is a good way of spreading more substantive information below it.

2. One way to destroy is to ruin an individuals credibility and any sense of respect for them.

Serious question, Y0kel. Given that Trump can be so shameless about grabbing women, mocking the disabled, slandering Mexicans and so on, and that this has all be played out in front of the US public, do you think these revelations, even if true, will impact either him or the 'respect' with which he is held?

As I see it, even those who voted for him view him as crass, infantile and shameless. And it is that last category that in large part got him elected.

Cameron was not too adversely affected by stories of pigs because both provenance and relevance were questionable. The same holds pretty true here too, unless there is unimpeachable, impeachment-enabling evidence that Trump has been an agent for FSB.

Golden showers is neither here nor there (even if the particular anecdote cited speaks to a deeply disturbed psychology).

Colluding with the Russians to hack your opponents campaign, along with evidence of financial ties to Russian intelligence must actually be impeachable.

Whatever they think down in West Virginia.

MTimT said:

Gardenwalker said:

MTimT said:

Y0kel said:

1. Be aware that the sensational is a good way of spreading more substantive information below it.

2. One way to destroy is to ruin an individuals credibility and any sense of respect for them.

Serious question, Y0kel. Given that Trump can be so shameless about grabbing women, mocking the disabled, slandering Mexicans and so on, and that this has all be played out in front of the US public, do you think these revelations, even if true, will impact either him or the 'respect' with which he is held?

As I see it, even those who voted for him view him as crass, infantile and shameless. And it is that last category that in large part got him elected.

Cameron was not too adversely affected by stories of pigs because both provenance and relevance were questionable. The same holds pretty true here too, unless there is unimpeachable, impeachment-enabling evidence that Trump has been an agent for FSB.

Golden showers is neither here nor there (even if the particular anecdote cited speaks to a deeply disturbed psychology).

Colluding with the Russians to hack your opponents campaign, along with evidence of financial ties to Russian intelligence must actually be impeachable.

Whatever they think down in West Virginia.

Thanks. I have not read beyond the first page, so missed that. But the question remains about the authenticity of the claims. If they are true, then I agree, it is impeachable.

The problem is how on earth to verify?
But maybe that's what a trial is for. Finances at least must be traceable.

MTimT said:

Gardenwalker said:

MTimT said:

Y0kel said:

1. Be aware that the sensational is a good way of spreading more substantive information below it.

2. One way to destroy is to ruin an individuals credibility and any sense of respect for them.

Serious question, Y0kel. Given that Trump can be so shameless about grabbing women, mocking the disabled, slandering Mexicans and so on, and that this has all be played out in front of the US public, do you think these revelations, even if true, will impact either him or the 'respect' with which he is held?

As I see it, even those who voted for him view him as crass, infantile and shameless. And it is that last category that in large part got him elected.

Cameron was not too adversely affected by stories of pigs because both provenance and relevance were questionable. The same holds pretty true here too, unless there is unimpeachable, impeachment-enabling evidence that Trump has been an agent for FSB.

Golden showers is neither here nor there (even if the particular anecdote cited speaks to a deeply disturbed psychology).

Colluding with the Russians to hack your opponents campaign, along with evidence of financial ties to Russian intelligence must actually be impeachable.

Whatever they think down in West Virginia.

Thanks. I have not read beyond the first page, so missed that. But the question remains about the authenticity of the claims. If they are true, then I agree, it is impeachable.

And if they're a fabrication by people connected with British intelligence? Pretty explosive either way...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Twitter is calling this watersportsgate....piss poor hashtag if you ask me.

I laughed so hard a little bit of wee came out.

Which was apt...

Gardenwalker said:

MTimT said:

Gardenwalker said:

MTimT said:

Y0kel said:

1. Be aware that the sensational is a good way of spreading more substantive information below it.

2. One way to destroy is to ruin an individuals credibility and any sense of respect for them.

Serious question, Y0kel. Given that Trump can be so shameless about grabbing women, mocking the disabled, slandering Mexicans and so on, and that this has all be played out in front of the US public, do you think these revelations, even if true, will impact either him or the 'respect' with which he is held?

As I see it, even those who voted for him view him as crass, infantile and shameless. And it is that last category that in large part got him elected.

Cameron was not too adversely affected by stories of pigs because both provenance and relevance were questionable. The same holds pretty true here too, unless there is unimpeachable, impeachment-enabling evidence that Trump has been an agent for FSB.

Golden showers is neither here nor there (even if the particular anecdote cited speaks to a deeply disturbed psychology).

Colluding with the Russians to hack your opponents campaign, along with evidence of financial ties to Russian intelligence must actually be impeachable.

Whatever they think down in West Virginia.

Thanks. I have not read beyond the first page, so missed that. But the question remains about the authenticity of the claims. If they are true, then I agree, it is impeachable.

The problem is how on earth to verify?
But maybe that's what a trial is for. Finances at least must be traceable.

Maybe that's the real FSB game. That there is nothing provable, just explosive rumors that will divide the US internally and drive a wedge between it and its ally, causing all involved to get involved in a witch hunt that detracts resources and attention away from other areas, Putin's Russia in particular.

I am not a Trump fan at all. I will not defend him. But this whole affair and its timing reeks to high heaven. Deception intelligence is all about knowing which buttons to push. In this pushes the right buttons both the hook an ambitious British intelligence officer, and to create a furore in the US. All rather neat and convenient to my devious mind.

SeanT said:

nielh said:

@SeanT

This debate is basically a waste of time, we don't know what Brexit will be like because it is tied up with too much uncertainty about everything else that is happening in the world at the moment. It may be good and it may be bad, its probably best to be open minded about it. But a brexit that is "good" for us and bad for the EU is not good in my opinion becuase our fate is tied up with the continent of Europe as it always has been.

Fro

I don't think that your enlightened democracy will arrive but I live in genuine hope. For what its worth I think we will get bounced in to ill advised trade deals that end up ceding far more soveriegnty that we ceded to the EU and we will get bogged down in distractions like scottish independence for many years to come and we won't make much progress at all but as ever i'm happy to be corrected by events.

In general I struggle really to see what makes us here in the UK special and in many respects I think that other northern European countries are way ahead of us on many issues. They build better housing with proper playspace, bins and cycle stores, have better infrastructure, have fewer people in their jails etc. Then again I do also feel like this is my home and I feel an emotional attachment to it, and I don't want a life in exile even if it would be extremely easy for me to go down that road.

The Brexit problem has been over our heads for four decades, I agree it has been conclusively resolved with the referendum result so now that has to be implemented. Maybe we will be ultimately humbled as a nation by the reality of Brexit, but before that can happen it needs to be put in to effect.

It's not zero sum. A Brexit can be good for the UK and ALSO good for the EU, or its constituent nations. God knows the EU needs reform (as everyone admits), if Brexit can't trigger this reform (and I confess I doubt it) then what will? Nothing, and it is therefore doomed to decline and eventual dissolution. And we are better off out, anyhow.

But otherwise: thanks. An honest answer. I do realise my perspective (affluent, metropolitan) is warped and unusual which is why I sincerely want to know what my fellow Britons, including the 48% who voted Remain, really think.

I don't believe you Remainers, in the main, are MONSTERS. I do believe some of you are going a bit mad.

The Euronationalists *have* to believe that Brexit will fail. This is because one of the defining characteristics of hard core nationalism is a determined inability to see the point of view of the other side.

Expecting them to do otherwise is similar to expecting a Scottish Nationalist to state that Scotland needs Englands help.

Gardenwalker said:

Waterspouts I personally can turn a blind eye too.

But the story is that he deliberately hired the room Barack and Michelle used at the Ritz Carlton Moscow and got a bunch of pissing prostitutes to defile it.

That's basically mentally ill.

Did you not watch the debates? Lots of very odd behaviour on display over those 5hrs.

MarqueeMark said:

Dura_Ace said:

SeanT said:

Question for PB Remainers: aren't you even SLIGHTLY excited by the possibilities of Brexit? The reviving of Westminster politics? The new and unexpected potentialities?

I get that convinced EU-federalists like williamglenn see Brexit as an evil, from which nothing good can come, which only destroys his European identity, but the more moderate Remainers must, surely, occasionally, thrill to the idea of freedom, or at least see the good in repatriating all these powers to our Mother of Parliaments?

No?

No, it's an intellectually bankrupt retreat to reactionary values. I hope and pray it's a complete disaster that results in economic ruin and the disintegration of the UK.

Which God do you pray to for this outcome? He must be one vindictive bastard....

Have you ever read the Old Testament?

MTimT said:

Y0kel said:

1. Be aware that the sensational is a good way of spreading more substantive information below it.

2. One way to destroy is to ruin an individuals credibility and any sense of respect for them.

Serious question, Y0kel. Given that Trump can be so shameless about grabbing women, mocking the disabled, slandering Mexicans and so on, and that this has all be played out in front of the US public, do you think these revelations, even if true, will impact either him or the 'respect' with which he is held?

As I see it, even those who voted for him view him as crass, infantile and shameless. And it is that last category that in large part got him elected.

Cameron was not too adversely affected by stories of pigs because both provenance and relevance were questionable. The same holds pretty true here too, unless there is unimpeachable, impeachment-enabling evidence that Trump has been an agent for FSB.

I did caution below on some of detail in this document but certainly it does perhaps verify previous suggestions I've made that the Russians had something on Trump's leisure activities.

At this point will it matter what the public think? What does his party think, there is the question. Yes, everyone thinks they know that Trump is a complete case but that is just the headline. The aim is to suggest that Trump is compromised as President in his duty to do right by his country by the fact that he has to a) do what a foreign country suggests because they have him by the nads and/or b) has actively worked with a foreign country (and more besides) to get to this position.

Its the contacts between his surrogates and Russian intelligence in the heat of the presidential campaign that might prove interesting. If this document was leaked by the spooks and that detail is incorrect it could kill off the effort, short term, to reveal that Trump has perhaps a bigger motivation in his job than being President for the United States and that motivation is keeping a foreign country sweet.

If that info on meetings with Russian intelligence is accurate and verifying detail comes out then Trump has a problem. Craft would suggest that as part of a rolling effort to cripple Trump, that you throw out a substantive suggestion that you can back up but don't show all your cards. Force either a denial, bullshit or lies from your target, then release out verifying information for your case.

There is more, some of which I've been outlining for a while on here but couldn't detail too much beyond. Given your background you might be familiar with the idea that some foreign intelligence services have very strong links with criminal underworlds and there is a strong level of co-operation and co-existence between them.

Y0kel said:

If this document was leaked by the spooks and that detail is incorrect it could kill off the effort, short term, to reveal that Trump has perhaps a bigger motivation in his job than being President for the United States and that motivation is keeping a foreign country sweet.

It seems like a transparent attempt to warn him off cooling relations with Russia out of feat of appearing to be compromised.

All this might, of course, account for Trump's strange hair colour and skin tone ?

In light of the military buildup in Europe it's rather more serious than that, though:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/01/trump-nato-europe-russia/512648/

Re Trump. What a total non story. I doubt there's a single PB poster that hasn't paid a hooker for a golden shower at one point or another.

Y0kel said:

I did caution below on some of detail in this document but certainly it does perhaps verify previous suggestions I've made that the Russians had something on Trump's leisure activities.

At this point will it matter what the public think? What does his party think, there is the question. Yes, everyone thinks they know that Trump is a complete case but that is just the headline. The aim is to suggest that Trump is compromised as President in his duty to do right by his country by the fact that he has to a) do what a foreign country suggests because they have him by the nads and/or b) has actively worked with a foreign country (and more besides) to get to this position.

Its the contacts between his surrogates and Russian intelligence in the heat of the presidential campaign that might prove interesting. If this document was leaked by the spooks and that detail is incorrect it could kill off the effort, short term, to reveal that Trump has perhaps a bigger motivation in his job than being President for the United States and that motivation is keeping a foreign country sweet.

If that info on meetings with Russian intelligence is accurate and verifying detail comes out then Trump has a problem. Craft would suggest that as part of a rolling effort to cripple Trump, that you throw out a substantive suggestion that you can back up but don't show all your cards. Force either a denial, bullshit or lies from your target, then release out verifying information for your case.

There is more, some of which I've been outlining for a while on here but couldn't detail too much beyond. Given your background you might be familiar with the idea that some foreign intelligence services have very strong links with criminal underworlds and there is a strong level of co-operation and co-existence between them.

Y0kel Thanks for the serious response. I have great respect for the intelligence services, but also a well-developed understanding of the limits of confidence in intelligence and of the power of well-crafted deception operations. Hence my somewhat skeptical initial response to stories that all too perfectly play out to Russian advantage.

But you are right, there are all sorts of linkages in that murky world, and if the contacts between the Trump campaign and FSB or its surrogates turn out to be true, then this, in Joe Biden's immortal words, is a Big F*cking Deal.

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

I'd actually be happy with edmundintokyo, if he's willing to take up the role. He's a Remainer but he's quite distanced, what with being in Tokyo and all.

I'd be happy with edmundintokyo too.

Cool. Let's hope he agrees. Otherwise I see the wager as up and running.

In principle I'm happy to adjudicate something but I missed most of the discussion about the thing I'd be adjudicating, so can someone summarize it, then I'll confirm I can adjudicate it whether it happened or not, then you guys can confirm to each other when and how much you're betting on whether it happened or not.

surbiton said:

The US is about to get a sadistic, mentally ill President. He needs help !

BTW, I am not entirely sure about the authenticity of the entire story. But some elements are true. There has to be , otherwise, it would not have any legs.

It has legs because it suits the narrative some want to make. Would be a fitting end if it turned out to be fake given the recent focus on fake news, but proving that would be quite difficult. There are already some relatively basic errors that have been noted in the report, and some facts that could be easily checked, such as the supposed meeting in Prague.

FWIW the notorious hacker 4chan is claiming responsibility for feeding this to Rick Wilson. That would be truly hilarious, although I am skeptical!

I just heard on radio that Obama has left office with approval ratings of 55%. Trump is entering with ratings of somewhere between late 30's early 40's (presumably depending on the poll)

I've just looked up 'Golden Shower'.

The urban dictionary said the meaning is pretty fluid...

Penthouse Verified account
‏@Penthouse

ATTENTION:
We are offering up to $1-million for exclusive rights to the FSB tapes of Donald Trump's #goldenshowers

https://twitter.com/Penthouse/status/819012191793745920

It's got legs because it's believable. There's a nice irony that his supporters chanting 'Drain The Swamp' and 'Lock Her Up' relied on the same principle