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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn and his party’s biggest challenge is making headway amongst his own age group – the oldies
Watching the TV news it’s clear that Corbyn Mark 2 hasn’t quite had the impact that his team would have liked. There’s a terrible lack of consistency and no real clear plan about what the message was going to be.
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https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/818898942750523392
I was surprised at what a shock it was to IN when we hit them with Turkey. By the time this happened they were in an almost impossible position. I wanted them to announce a veto. It would not have been believed and would have had the opposite effect – people would have taken the danger of Turkey joining more seriously. If your life depended on winning for IN, the answer is clear: they should have said long before the campaign started as part of the renegotiation process that they would veto any accession.
I wouldn't be very good at this politics lark. I assumed that IN didn't announce a veto because they were under orders from Merkel not to do so. But I guess Cummings has a point when says it would have made things worse. The time to do something was before the renegotiation. Very poor planning from Cameron and Co.
And, of course, had Cameron just waited a few months, Turkey would not have been an issue at all.
Said in relation to Clinton's digital campaign strategy, but somewhat apposite to the current header.
When Kennedy asked the crowd of a few hundred viewers how many parents had a child injured by vaccines, numerous hands went up.
“They get the shot, that night they have a fever of a hundred and three, they go to sleep, and three months later their brain is gone,” Kennedy said. “This is a holocaust, what this is doing to our country.”
lol. It would be funny if it wasn't so serious.
"THREE MONTHS LATER THEIR BRAIN IS GONE"
"THIS IS A HOLOCAUST."
America has become a Kakistocracy
Whether we have a vote in the Council might be opaque and hard to pin down to a date. What if May voluntarily abstains?
Exhibit A: Jeremy Corbyn.
"Graham Kirkland, 54, said he has always supported Labour “because I was brought up that way. But the Labour leader, I think he’s a prick. An absolute lunatic. It’s like that nutter in America, Trump.” The plan of some round Corbyn to conduct a Trump-style insurgency is unlikely to go down well in Whitehaven.
ConHome: “So how will you vote in this by-election?”
Kirkland: “I don’t know. It’s always been Labour down here. But if Corbyn’s still leader I won’t be voting Labour. But I definitely won’t vote Conservative. They’ve ruined the area, I think.”
ConHome: “So might you vote UKIP?”
Kirkland: “That’s the nutter who went off to see Donald Trump.”
It is noticeable how churned up these Labour voters are. They feel a deep ancestral loyalty to their party, detest the Conservatives, and do not much like the sound of a website with that word in its title, though they were prepared to have a friendly conversation with the website’s representative. They want to go on voting Labour, but for a substantial number of them, Corbyn makes that impossible.
As a second man put it: “Well I won’t be voting Labour again. I’ve been voting Labour all my life. I just think it’s pointless with Corbyn around. I’m from an Army background. I just think he’s a wrong ‘un.”
A third man agreed: “I hate Corbyn"
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/01/corbyn-will-find-it-hard-to-cope-in-copeland-and-risks-humiliation.html
Digital front page looks brutal, will the dead tree press be as bad for Corbyn in the next hour or so?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/818931047975026689
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/818922458585714688
Quarenting Afghanistan and Pakistan has other merits too.
PS Only a silly comment. I know that it does not take much for one imported case to create a new outbreak in a polio-free country.
I think nominations have closed and of the local candidates at least one actively campaigned for Smith last summer. It is probably a good idea to pick someone like that.
http://sacbee-politics-chatter.sacbee.com/politics-talk/slideshow/trump-viewed-negatively-majority-americans-new-poll/?li_source=LI&li_medium=publisher-widget
Corbyn's created the impression it could be anything north of £140k and that he could heavily tax the rest.
Obviously they love internationalism and immigration.
Dupont-Aignan wants to be the French Trump, but how fast can he learn? He needs some catchier sayings:
"Lock Fillon up!",
"Hollande and Fillon founded ISIS!",
"Crooked Marine",
"maybe the sons of the OAS are keeping their powder dry",
"see this bulge in my pants? that's how much I love France!"
etc.
http://sacbee-politics-chatter.sacbee.com/politics-talk/slideshow/trump-viewed-negatively-majority-americans-new-poll/?li_source=LI&li_medium=publisher-widget
Anyone want to set up a betfair market on the issue?
Poor Labour. No wonder they're struggling.
Cameron used to talk about a ratio in the public sector - did they ever do it?
A lot of forex traders are in denial and assume HMG thinks like they do.
You are also much less myopic than some of your fellow travellers, for whom all news related to Brexit is incontrovertibly good.
People generally vote in their own interests.
On the obvious assumptions, the 8% who'd vote for Valls but not for Peillon get redistributed as follows:
2% left (1% Mélenchon, 1% others),
4.5% centrist (3% Macron, 1.5% Bayrou - who may not stand),
1% right (Fillon),
0.5% Green
May won't compromise. And neither will they. So the markets will gradually wake up to the fact May actually means it, and so do the EU, assume an ultra-hard Brexit and so the pound will steadily slide. It will aided along the way by as many apocalyptic announcements from the EU of the consequences as possible.
THIS IS DELIBERATE. The EU wants maximum market pressure on Sterling. It will be like a real-time Remain campaign run by the EU, but, they hope, with real fear this time.
The hope is that by a no-holds bar, no compromising position, and immense market pressure on the currency, it will scare the Brits off leaving and/or lead to impossible political pressure on May.
I think they are wrong, but it's not impossible they are right.
Quite sad really.
As has been stated on here many, many times, over-optimistic Brexiteers are as deluded as the more apocalyptic Remainers.
Just like the media didn't get Brexit or Trump, they don't get how stupid they look trying to compare Corbyn to Trump.
Are we agreed on this definition?
Can't see many having a huge impact, apart from Italy in April/May 2018, and Sweden will be of interest to a lesser extent, but the EU will want to ensure no eurosceptic troublemakers are elected.
There are also a fair few elections in Eastern Europe in April/May 2019, just after the UK deal should be finally concluded. So that will have a bearing as well.
Can I come back in 2 years?
Isn't the more likely British public reaction to be more of us to telling them to go forth and multiply?
Even if they "succeeded" in scaring us back in- what's the point? They'd have got themselves embittered millions who'd rightly feel humiliated and betrayed. It would be taken out on the EU in future. I dread to think where that leads, I really do.
The EU apparatchiks - with egging on from the most ardent UK Remainers collocated in Brussels whispering into their ears daily, of the sort that make WilliamGlenn look like Bill Cash - think a cold dose of reality might do the trick. And they might even have plans to suggest they'd throw Cameron's deal back on the table again - with a couple of minor tweaks - if we changed our minds: perhaps with longer benefits exclusion periods, and a couple of extra opt-outs on crime and justice etc.
That's why I don't expect sanity in the EU negotiations until this Autumn. Possibly later.
The big chunk of work will be done from c. May 2018-Nov 2018. Then we'll see the EU trying to sell and vote it through thereafter, with all sorts of horsetrading in which we'll largely be spectators. With perhaps the Irish acting as a kind of proxy for us.
My WhatsApp is going to go apeshit.
But it maximises the chances of us timing out with no deal, or a very basic deal. Like an emergency passport, Tesco Value pack of sausages, SIM only phone contract, or 'Leccy on a pay-as-you go card.
Off topic, I know some suggest I'm a bit wacko when I claim that the Russians have Trump in their pocket with info about him both regarding his links to Russian money and his leisure activities.
This evening CNN are reporting that there is credible info that the Russians have compromising financial and personal info on Donald.
Question is, who is leaking this stuff?
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1394765/#Comment_1394765
Basically you win if there's an amicable divorce, or if there's a car crash with no deal, and I win if negotiations go into 2020, or Brexit is abandoned, or a long-term transition that involves staying in the EU past the end of 2019.
And I don't believe that economic cost is a "price worth paying" because I believe the reclamation of sovereignty, especially in this complicated, interconnected world where nations do deals with other nations for mutual benefit, is largely illusory.
No shortage of lawyers here. Or of generally fair-minded people, for that matter.
It's 27 different nations with differing perspectives and different relationships of varying importance with the UK. It shouldn't take a genius to press the right buttons when it comes to playing them off against each other if/when they become contrary.
Edit: that was a JOKE!!
It's why even now we'd be better off building an EU wide consensus to change the things 'we' don't like rather than thinking we can apply pressure to extract a cherry-picked deal.
Talking to a friend in the labour party today. Hearing lots of reports of longstanding members who have finally had it with Corbyn and cancelling their direct debit/tearing up their membership cards.
£60 per year too high a price to pay to stay in the party to support a leader they dont agree with. One guy is starting a part time masters and downgrading his membership to student membership which is only £1 per month.
These are all middle class public sector professionals.
People seem to be resigned to the death of the labour party.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/818485868671406080
Two reason why it didn't get the exposure
1. There was an expectation Trump would lose but now he has won, the reality that he has been bought by a country that considers the USA an opponent is too urgent to ignore.
2. To have released the info publicly in the election cycle would have been a whole new ball game for the US domestic intelligence agencies. Contrary to what some think, they do tread very cautiously
I should note that the GOP were passed warnings about Trump by contacts within the intelligence agencies from quite a bit out.
Trump's teams met with Russian cut outs during the election for example. And it wasn't for cocktails. You've got suggestions that Russian intelligence was looking at state electoral rolls
I said the other night the question was whether the spooks could truly muster themselves to try to bring Trump down. It is a very difficult situation for them.
It looks, however, like they are going to give it a go but success is not certain.