politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lucian Fletcher on the implications of the dramatic events in

Thank you for an excellent contrition Lucian, hope to see more from you.

Interesting piece, Mr. Fletcher.

Foster trying to hide her incompetence behind her ovaries is not an appealing sight.

Thank you Lucian. Northern Ireland seems to be badly in need of some Red-Blue politics rather than Green-Orange, but that's a naive outsider's perspective.

Martin looked and sounded OLD on the news yesterday.

tpfkar said:

Really useful article thanks.

So gaming it, let's say the election changes next to nothing, the DUP and Sinn Fein are the only parties large enough to go into office together. But it's clear they can't work together at the moment. What happens next?

My (distant) reading is that it's about personalities as much as anything, Sinn Fein just don't like and have found it harder to work with the DUP under Arlene Foster, and the RHI scheme provided perfect cover to do what they wanted to do anyway.

Re-partition between the EU-leaning west and south and the Brexit-leaning north and east?

Blast from the past doing the thread. I personally miss Lucian's insight from the heart of the beast (media news room) from back in the day.

Scott_P said:

@PolhomeEditor: Labour HQ has just been evacuated due to a fire alarm, just as Jeremy Corbyn's big speech about to start. Insider says: "What a metaphor."

I would bet that probably wasn't an accidental fire alarm...

williamglenn said:

The Russian finance ministry has just announced that it spent over half its reserves in the month of December alone...

Why would they admit that?

‘Arlene Foster has effectively been dragged kicking and screaming from office.’

I thought she was still clinging on by her fingernails? – However, great thread Mr Fletcher, ta.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

tpfkar said:

Really useful article thanks.

So gaming it, let's say the election changes next to nothing, the DUP and Sinn Fein are the only parties large enough to go into office together. But it's clear they can't work together at the moment. What happens next?

My (distant) reading is that it's about personalities as much as anything, Sinn Fein just don't like and have found it harder to work with the DUP under Arlene Foster, and the RHI scheme provided perfect cover to do what they wanted to do anyway.

Re-partition between the EU-leaning west and south and the Brexit-leaning north and east?

But there are some quite Unionisty chunks out in the south and west (and not to mention the nationalist enclaves in Belfast that would be wanting to join the Republic if a re-drawing of the border is on the cards).

But ultimately, part of the problem of Norn Iron politics is that it's barely big enough to function effectively as it is, make it any smaller and you might as well turn it into a county council (or a Scottish unitary authority as the unionist population are closer to the Scots historically than the English).

tpfkar said:

Really useful article thanks.

So gaming it, let's say the election changes next to nothing, the DUP and Sinn Fein are the only parties large enough to go into office together. But it's clear they can't work together at the moment. What happens next?

My (distant) reading is that it's about personalities as much as anything, Sinn Fein just don't like and have found it harder to work with the DUP under Arlene Foster, and the RHI scheme provided perfect cover to do what they wanted to do anyway.

Well this is all moving on very quickly as is the case in these matters. Arlene and her ministers (a popular beat combo) have just said they intend to negotiate with Sinn Fein and announce an inquiry in coming days.

The problem is that they just looked like a group who have received some internal polling news that tells them they are going to lose a lot of seats. Now if I can see that, so can SF.

The big question: will Brigitte Bardot back Le Pen or Mélenchon? She has backed the FN for years, but she's been praising Mélenchon recently.

Le Pen talks of animal rights and markets herself to pet owners, but her party still supports hunting and bullfighting.

I hope Bardot backs Mélenchon. In 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen got into R2 by winning 16.9% in the first round. Mélenchon is polling 14% now. Who knows? Maybe there will be a tight-knit bunch of practically-second-equal candidates. Maybe Philippe Poutou (New Anticapitalist Party, polling 2%) and Nathalie Arthaud (Workers' Struggle, polling 1%) could withdraw and advocate voting for Mélenchon? Valls isn't likely to be going places if he wins the PS nomination: I will be amazed if he gets into R2.

I'm assuming the DUP private polling makes for unpleasant reading

https://twitter.com/JayneMcCormack/status/818834851444838403

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Martin looked and sounded OLD on the news yesterday.

He has gone down very quickly. I saw him in the Assembly in the Autumn and he still looked fine. Yesterday, he hardly looked like himself.

He looked and sounded that ill, I was surprised not to see old grim in the background sharping his scythe.

@bbclaurak: Crucially, Corbyn line on freedom of movement has changed, he's now saying they don't 'rule out' keeping freedom of movement

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: High farce alert: Corbyn is about to drop his plan for an earnings cap....

Has Mr Wenger been on the blower to inform his #1 fan that a wage cap is a bonkers idea?

@bbclaurak: Speech also does not include his suggestion this morning of introducing a maximum pay cap

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: High farce alert: Corbyn is about to drop his plan for an earnings cap....

Well there's a surprise... He's astoundingly, crashingly bloody awful.

https://twitter.com/Beasley78/status/818774619222065152

I must admit I didn't think Corbyn was quite this inept. Is the 0% strategy actually his real plan?

Mr. Glenn, for Labour, it's like having Jar Jar Binks in command of the Death Star.

Corbyn: These are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others.

Jezza...the only person to have more attempted restarts at a launch that the people behind this trick shot.

One million people watch 500ft snooker trick shot

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-38573364

FrancisUrquhart said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Martin looked and sounded OLD on the news yesterday.

He has gone down very quickly. I saw him in the Assembly in the Autumn and he still looked fine. Yesterday, he hardly looked like himself.

He looked and sounded that ill, I was surprised not to see old grim in the background sharping his scythe.

I wonder what he'll say when he meets his maker. No hiding from anything then

Corbyn: "We cannot have the CEO paying less tax than the cleaner"

Err....

Corbyn...he isn't the messiah, he's a very naughty boy f##king idiot.

Blue_rog said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Martin looked and sounded OLD on the news yesterday.

He has gone down very quickly. I saw him in the Assembly in the Autumn and he still looked fine. Yesterday, he hardly looked like himself.

He looked and sounded that ill, I was surprised not to see old grim in the background sharping his scythe.

I wonder what he'll say when he meets his maker. No hiding from anything then

Certainly be an interesting discussion before the lever gets pulled and he is sent somewhere much warmer.

Not surprising, given the source, but a scathing assessment of Obama nevertheless:

http://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/ego-in-chief-obama-says-democrats-lost-because-he-was-too-busy-being-president/

https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/818849917397532673

SeanT said:

Corbyn seems to be implying that we will definitely Brexit, but we must still allow anyone from the EU to live here, if they fancy it.

@bbclaurak: Key Corbyn line from speech, single market trumps concerns over immigration - 'jobs and living standards first' in negotiations

Richard_Nabavi said:

Still, Labour supporters should look on the bright side.

At least they didn't elect Owen Smith.

LOL - dear god as it got THAT bad

F1: just an aside, but amused to see Ross Brawn say there'll never be a Leicester City in F1.

*cough*2009*cough*

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/CorbynSuperFan/status/818834239827349504

Tell me that is a spoof

It takes a special skill to make Sinn Fein look principled.

This is next level incompetence from Jeremy Corbyn. If he were really adopting Trumpian tactics he would have junked his relaunch and spent the day tweeting and ranting about the NHS. Not going through fresh iterations of far left economic fantasies and muddled words on immigration with each passing hour.

Floater said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/CorbynSuperFan/status/818834239827349504

Tell me that is a spoof

It's a spoof.

I believe the phenomenon is called Poe's Law.

Mr. Meeks, don't criticise the Chairman too much, or you'll face a 120% tax rate!

Incidentally, I hope your other half is continuing to recover well.

David Blanchflower, Corbyn's former advisor on pay cap, 'completely idiotic idea and not a single economist would agree to it'

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, don't criticise the Chairman too much, or you'll face a 120% tax rate!

Incidentally, I hope your other half is continuing to recover well.

He's doing well. He's due to have a further operation next week, so fingers crossed for that.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

David Blanchflower, Corbyn's former advisor on pay cap, 'completely idiotic idea and not a single economist would agree to it'

His interview on BBC just now is trashing Corbyn comprehensively

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, don't criticise the Chairman too much, or you'll face a 120% tax rate!

Incidentally, I hope your other half is continuing to recover well.

He's doing well. He's due to have a further operation next week, so fingers crossed for that.

All the best to both of you.

I like this from the Lib Dems

"Commenting on Jeremy Corbyn’s plans for a salary cap, Alistair Carmichael, the Liberal Democrats' Shadow First Secretary of State, said:

"If the salary cap is just the first idea from the new Trump style Jeremy Corbyn then 2017 may have some much-needed levity. You wonder what is coming next. Building a wall would be the obvious one. Most likely it would be built around to rest of the Parliamentary Labour Party."

In one regard Corbyn is like Trump – they share an utter disregard for how things actually work, whether it is the rest of the world or other people’s money. He is letting down the millions of ordinary people who need a progressive force that is serious about stopping the Conservative Government. That is when the joke stops being funny.

While the Labour Party want to take lessons from the most divisive political figure in the world, Liberal Democrats will continue to champion an open, tolerant and united society. We can only hope that he doesn't start to ape Trump's use of Twitter.""

Floater said:

I like this from the Lib Dems

"Commenting on Jeremy Corbyn’s plans for a salary cap, Alistair Carmichael, the Liberal Democrats' Shadow First Secretary of State, said:

"If the salary cap is just the first idea from the new Trump style Jeremy Corbyn then 2017 may have some much-needed levity. You wonder what is coming next. Building a wall would be the obvious one. Most likely it would be built around to rest of the Parliamentary Labour Party."

In one regard Corbyn is like Trump – they share an utter disregard for how things actually work, whether it is the rest of the world or other people’s money. He is letting down the millions of ordinary people who need a progressive force that is serious about stopping the Conservative Government. That is when the joke stops being funny.

While the Labour Party want to take lessons from the most divisive political figure in the world, Liberal Democrats will continue to champion an open, tolerant and united society. We can only hope that he doesn't start to ape Trump's use of Twitter.""

How can anyone believe anything from that lying Lib Dem chancer.

malcolmg said:

Floater said:

I like this from the Lib Dems

"Commenting on Jeremy Corbyn’s plans for a salary cap, Alistair Carmichael, the Liberal Democrats' Shadow First Secretary of State, said:

"If the salary cap is just the first idea from the new Trump style Jeremy Corbyn then 2017 may have some much-needed levity. You wonder what is coming next. Building a wall would be the obvious one. Most likely it would be built around to rest of the Parliamentary Labour Party."

In one regard Corbyn is like Trump – they share an utter disregard for how things actually work, whether it is the rest of the world or other people’s money. He is letting down the millions of ordinary people who need a progressive force that is serious about stopping the Conservative Government. That is when the joke stops being funny.

While the Labour Party want to take lessons from the most divisive political figure in the world, Liberal Democrats will continue to champion an open, tolerant and united society. We can only hope that he doesn't start to ape Trump's use of Twitter.""

How can anyone believe anything from that lying Lib Dem chancer.

But it is a good comment on the disaster that is Jeremy Corbyn

malcolmg said:

Floater said:

I like this from the Lib Dems

"Commenting on Jeremy Corbyn’s plans for a salary cap, Alistair Carmichael, the Liberal Democrats' Shadow First Secretary of State, said:

"If the salary cap is just the first idea from the new Trump style Jeremy Corbyn then 2017 may have some much-needed levity. You wonder what is coming next. Building a wall would be the obvious one. Most likely it would be built around to rest of the Parliamentary Labour Party."

In one regard Corbyn is like Trump – they share an utter disregard for how things actually work, whether it is the rest of the world or other people’s money. He is letting down the millions of ordinary people who need a progressive force that is serious about stopping the Conservative Government. That is when the joke stops being funny.

While the Labour Party want to take lessons from the most divisive political figure in the world, Liberal Democrats will continue to champion an open, tolerant and united society. We can only hope that he doesn't start to ape Trump's use of Twitter.""

How can anyone believe anything from that lying Lib Dem chancer.

Orkney and Shetland would vote for a pickled cucumber so long as it had the bird on the rosette

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

Floater said:

I like this from the Lib Dems

"Commenting on Jeremy Corbyn’s plans for a salary cap, Alistair Carmichael, the Liberal Democrats' Shadow First Secretary of State, said:

"If the salary cap is just the first idea from the new Trump style Jeremy Corbyn then 2017 may have some much-needed levity. You wonder what is coming next. Building a wall would be the obvious one. Most likely it would be built around to rest of the Parliamentary Labour Party."

In one regard Corbyn is like Trump – they share an utter disregard for how things actually work, whether it is the rest of the world or other people’s money. He is letting down the millions of ordinary people who need a progressive force that is serious about stopping the Conservative Government. That is when the joke stops being funny.

While the Labour Party want to take lessons from the most divisive political figure in the world, Liberal Democrats will continue to champion an open, tolerant and united society. We can only hope that he doesn't start to ape Trump's use of Twitter.""

How can anyone believe anything from that lying Lib Dem chancer.

But it is a good comment on the disaster that is Jeremy Corbyn

"While the Labour Party want to take lessons from the most divisive political figure in the world, Liberal Democrats will continue to champion an open, tolerant and united society".
THAT is a bigger joke than Corbyn, only a swivel eyed Lib Dem could spout such mince and expect anyone to believe it.

Whenever I try to do my best Martin McGuiness voice, it comes out more like Colin Murray

malcolmg said:

Floater said:

I like this from the Lib Dems

"Commenting on Jeremy Corbyn’s plans for a salary cap, Alistair Carmichael, the Liberal Democrats' Shadow First Secretary of State, said:

"If the salary cap is just the first idea from the new Trump style Jeremy Corbyn then 2017 may have some much-needed levity. You wonder what is coming next. Building a wall would be the obvious one. Most likely it would be built around to rest of the Parliamentary Labour Party."

In one regard Corbyn is like Trump – they share an utter disregard for how things actually work, whether it is the rest of the world or other people’s money. He is letting down the millions of ordinary people who need a progressive force that is serious about stopping the Conservative Government. That is when the joke stops being funny.

While the Labour Party want to take lessons from the most divisive political figure in the world, Liberal Democrats will continue to champion an open, tolerant and united society. We can only hope that he doesn't start to ape Trump's use of Twitter.""

How can anyone believe anything from that lying Lib Dem chancer.

I think you let the lying bastard off light

LOL - Guardian journalist on Sky News " he has succeeded in uniting everyone I know - against him"

I wonder what the salary differences are in unions and public sector organisations too.......