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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now BuzzWord bingo on Trump’s Inaugural speech

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now BuzzWord bingo on Trump’s Inaugural speech

Well done to Shadsy, head of political odds at Ladbrokes, for getting this together – buzzword bingo on what’s almost certainly going to be the most watched and scrutinised political speech of 2017 – the Trump address at his inauguration on January 20th.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    First like Trump?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Odds on his speechwriters rickrolling him?
  • Can't see any value here.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,145
    Will he use the word p***y? :)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    edited January 2017
    neo endogenous growth theory - nailed on

    collect your winnings
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    I thought Trump actually said "big league" rather than "bigly"
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302

    Can't see any value here.

    that's how we view the legal profession
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Odds on his speechwriters rickrolling him?

    Look at the official transcript afterwards, see what the first letter of every line spells out!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Alec Baldwin?

    Obamacare seems like a good bet to me. But I almost always lose on these markets.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2017

    Obamacare seems like a good bet to me. But I almost always lose on these markets.

    I think that's a very bad bet. If he refers to it at all, it will be under the formal name of the Affordable Care Act.

    Mostly, though, inauguration speeches comprise content-free boiler-plate platitudes:

    http://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1872715,00.html

    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25853

    http://www.bartleby.com/124/pres63.html

    Trump may be different, of course.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,656

    Alec Baldwin?

    Obamacare seems like a good bet to me. But I almost always lose on these markets.

    Would he want to namecheck Obama there though? He'll certainly mention the topic but isn't it much more likely that he'll talk about 'healthcare reform'?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    If he says "put in" will they pay out on Putin?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169

    Obamacare seems like a good bet to me. But I almost always lose on these markets.

    I think that's a very bad bet. If he refers to it at all, it will be under the formal name of the Affordable Care Act.

    Mostly, though, inauguration speeches comprise content-free boiler-plate platitudes:

    http://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1872715,00.html

    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25853

    http://www.bartleby.com/124/pres63.html

    Trump may be different, of course.
    Trump is Trump, but it's still going to be very scripted, probably the most scripted speech he's ever made. He knows the world will be listening, that it isn't the time or the place for hyperbole or pisstaking.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    Alec Baldwin?

    Obamacare seems like a good bet to me. But I almost always lose on these markets.

    Would he want to namecheck Obama there though? He'll certainly mention the topic but isn't it much more likely that he'll talk about 'healthcare reform'?
    Except everyone knows it as ObamaCare so he might say something like.. "we will replace the affordable care act - known as Obamacare - with... "

    It's probably not odds on but it's not 5/1.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    No odds on Farage? Has to be more likely to get a mention than Tezzie May.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    Sandpit said:

    Obamacare seems like a good bet to me. But I almost always lose on these markets.

    I think that's a very bad bet. If he refers to it at all, it will be under the formal name of the Affordable Care Act.

    Mostly, though, inauguration speeches comprise content-free boiler-plate platitudes:

    http://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1872715,00.html

    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25853

    http://www.bartleby.com/124/pres63.html

    Trump may be different, of course.
    Trump is Trump, but it's still going to be very scripted, probably the most scripted speech he's ever made. He knows the world will be listening, that it isn't the time or the place for hyperbole or pisstaking.
    Just the thought of Trump standing there taking the oath is too weird for me. I mean seriously, is this actually happening or will I wake up shortly?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    FPT:
    Rolls Royce Cars - 4,000 sold last year, another 100 skilled jobs to add to the 100 it already announced in July.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/09/rolls-royce-enjoys-record-demand-second-best-year-ever/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,826
    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    Obamacare seems like a good bet to me. But I almost always lose on these markets.

    I think that's a very bad bet. If he refers to it at all, it will be under the formal name of the Affordable Care Act.

    Mostly, though, inauguration speeches comprise content-free boiler-plate platitudes:

    http://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1872715,00.html

    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25853

    http://www.bartleby.com/124/pres63.html

    Trump may be different, of course.
    Trump is likely to have a formal speech but also to ad-lib around it.

    His election victory speech may be more of the model - gracious(ish) but also rather long winded.
  • Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    You could justifiably accuse Theresa May of many things, but accusing her of being over-loquacious isn't one of them!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654
    edited January 2017
    I like the look of "huge" and "tremendous". He says them all the time, and even if somebody else writes the speech and he actually sticks to it, there must be a decent possibility they'll be in there by chance.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    "My fellow Americans, we live in a corrupted post-truth world. In the land of Brexit, UK bookmakers take bets on what words I will say today. "Saturday Night Live" was at 33/1, as was the Apprentice. My good friend Piers Morgan was at 100/1. Well, I've got news for Shadsy - You're Fired!"
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,561
    Obamacare at 5/1 looks value to me.

    Sorry to go back to Brexit so quickly, but a question that's troubling me. It seems that our 2 red lines are forming around 1) control of UK borders 2) no European Court of Justice oversight.

    #1 I can at least understand.
    But my question to leavers is on #2 - assuming there is some arrangement with the EU albeit looser than we have now, who do we want to police it? Surely there needs to be some arbiter of disputes? No way the EU would agree that everything would be decided by the Supreme Court in London (which is stuffed with ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE lest we forget) So who? An entirely separate legal mechanism? A new court etc? Who would Leavers trust to oversee this?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Like War Games, the only way to win is not to play.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    "My fellow Americans, we live in a corrupted post-truth world. In the land of Brexit, UK bookmakers take bets on what words I will say today. "Saturday Night Live" was at 33/1, as was the Apprentice. My good friend Piers Morgan was at 100/1. Well, I've got news for Shadsy - You're Fired!"

    :lol:
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sandpit said:

    Obamacare seems like a good bet to me. But I almost always lose on these markets.

    I think that's a very bad bet. If he refers to it at all, it will be under the formal name of the Affordable Care Act.

    Mostly, though, inauguration speeches comprise content-free boiler-plate platitudes:

    http://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1872715,00.html

    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25853

    http://www.bartleby.com/124/pres63.html

    Trump may be different, of course.
    Trump is Trump, but it's still going to be very scripted, probably the most scripted speech he's ever made. He knows the world will be listening, that it isn't the time or the place for hyperbole or pisstaking.
    He knows the world reads his tweets. Doesn't seem to slow him down much.
  • Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Any PBers going to work in London today, or all working from home? Pictures from Clapham Jcn don't look too good at all.

    Working from home, unionised staff on strike at Epping tube and all central London tubes shut
    Sounds like chaos. Got caught in a tube strike a few years ago and it wasn't a pleasant experience, had to walk about 10 miles from Waterloo to Wimbledon (wearing a suit!) to get a train south.

    Annoyed at YouTube, they've taken down the video for Amateur Transplants' "London Underground Song" There is another version still up though - but only listen to it if you're not at work, it is rather rude about the strikers.
    This one? Still there for me:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHn-g7T9f9A

    NSFW but hilarious!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    I like the look of "huge" and "tremendous". He says them all the time, and even if somebody else writes the speech and he actually sticks to it, there must be a decent possibility they'll be in their by chance.

    Agreed.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654
    tpfkar said:

    Obamacare at 5/1 looks value to me.

    Sorry to go back to Brexit so quickly, but a question that's troubling me. It seems that our 2 red lines are forming around 1) control of UK borders 2) no European Court of Justice oversight.

    #1 I can at least understand.
    But my question to leavers is on #2 - assuming there is some arrangement with the EU albeit looser than we have now, who do we want to police it? Surely there needs to be some arbiter of disputes? No way the EU would agree that everything would be decided by the Supreme Court in London (which is stuffed with ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE lest we forget) So who? An entirely separate legal mechanism? A new court etc? Who would Leavers trust to oversee this?

    The Occam's Razor answer is that she has absolutely no idea WTF she's doing.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,826
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    Rolls Royce Cars - 4,000 sold last year, another 100 skilled jobs to add to the 100 it already announced in July.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/09/rolls-royce-enjoys-record-demand-second-best-year-ever/

    I heard the interview with him this morning. They asked him if he now regretted telling his workforce to support Remain for the sake of their company and jobs? He said 'on the contrary. These sales had nothing to do with brexit' and warned that because of it this increase might well be reversed next year
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    edited January 2017
    Off topic, but just catching up with the Golden Globes news.

    What is it about Hollywood actors that makes them think that accepting an award for their acting is both an appropriate platform for a political speech, and that everyone wants to hear it?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Any PBers going to work in London today, or all working from home? Pictures from Clapham Jcn don't look too good at all.

    Working from home, unionised staff on strike at Epping tube and all central London tubes shut
    Sounds like chaos. Got caught in a tube strike a few years ago and it wasn't a pleasant experience, had to walk about 10 miles from Waterloo to Wimbledon (wearing a suit!) to get a train south.

    Annoyed at YouTube, they've taken down the video for Amateur Transplants' "London Underground Song" There is another version still up though - but only listen to it if you're not at work, it is rather rude about the strikers.
    This one? Still there for me:

    tps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHn-g7T9f9A

    NSFW but hilarious!
    That's the one that's still up, very NSFW. The one that got pulled had a very funny cartoon video, and several dozen million hits!
  • If I was forced to choose one of Shadsy's offerings, I think it would be 'Clinton' at 4/5. Since the Clintons will be attending, he might use it either as a courtesy reference to President Clinton (as George W Bush did in 2001), or in a tribute to his opponent.

    However, since the largest stake Ladbrokes will offer me is tuppence ha'penny, it's rather academic in my case!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169

    "My fellow Americans, we live in a corrupted post-truth world. In the land of Brexit, UK bookmakers take bets on what words I will say today. "Saturday Night Live" was at 33/1, as was the Apprentice. My good friend Piers Morgan was at 100/1. Well, I've got news for Shadsy - You're Fired!"

    LOL. Do you know his speechwriter? ;)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,826

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122
    edited January 2017

    "My fellow Americans, we live in a corrupted post-truth world. In the land of Brexit, UK bookmakers take bets on what words I will say today. "Saturday Night Live" was at 33/1, as was the Apprentice. My good friend Piers Morgan was at 100/1. Well, I've got news for Shadsy - You're Fired!"

    That would be brilliant.

    On Amateur Transplants - I saw them live in 2010 - they were brilliant. And I was humming the London Underground song as I crossed Waterloo Bridge this morning. :)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,145
    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    Your morning cafe au laits getting a bit pricey? The £ has had a bumpy ride both before and since Brexit but if the forecasters had got it right it would be around 20% lower than it is today. There will be more ups and downs this year - but this will diminish as the Brexit package becomes clearer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will be a very rocky ride, with the pound all over the place, and the deal will only be struck at one minute to midnight but the rest of your post is hyperbole.
  • Like War Games, the only way to win is not to play.

    Wouldn't you prefer a nice game of chess?
  • Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    Because these burps are a good thing. 1% adjustments at a time are better than an overnight 20% fall. She's steadily reinforcing what we all know but some refuse to believe - more fool those who haven't understood that Brexit means Brexit.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Off topic, but just catching up with the Golden Globes news.

    What is it about Hollywood actors that makes them think that accepting an award for their acting is both an appropriate platform for a political speech, and that everyone wants to hear it?

    The tally of actors I can't watch with much enthusiasm, continues to grow apace. I wish they'd all pack it in.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122

    Off topic, but just catching up with the Golden Globes news.

    What is it about Hollywood actors that makes them think that accepting an award for their acting is both an appropriate platform for a political speech, and that everyone wants to hear it?

    And what's wrong with MMA? It's not my cup of tea, but I know it's very popular. Ah, I think I've answered my own question!
  • "My fellow Americans, we live in a corrupted post-truth world. In the land of Brexit, UK bookmakers take bets on what words I will say today. "Saturday Night Live" was at 33/1, as was the Apprentice. My good friend Piers Morgan was at 100/1. Well, I've got news for Shadsy - You're Fired!"

    Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a complete and total shutdown of Buzzword Bingo threads, until our forum's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    PlatoSaid said:

    Off topic, but just catching up with the Golden Globes news.

    What is it about Hollywood actors that makes them think that accepting an award for their acting is both an appropriate platform for a political speech, and that everyone wants to hear it?

    The tally of actors I can't watch with much enthusiasm, continues to grow apace. I wish they'd all pack it in.
    You want a safe space is what you are saying.

    http://news.sky.com/story/uk-to-remain-home-of-rolls-royce-after-remarkable-sales-10722679
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Off topic, but just catching up with the Golden Globes news.

    What is it about Hollywood actors that makes them think that accepting an award for their acting is both an appropriate platform for a political speech, and that everyone wants to hear it?

    "Violence incites violence" from Streep. I love that from Hollywood, whose "action" films are really "fully automatic assault rifles are lovely toys and virtually harmless" films. Worth tens of millions of dollars a year to the NRA and Smith & Wesson.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    "They've underestimated Hartlepool, and they've underestimated me!"

    As said by some soon-to-be Brussels Eurocrat and now leading Remainer.
  • Luckily, checked Tube status online during breakfast this morning and saw I could bust the strike quite easily:

    Central line was working from Gants Hill all the way to Liverpool Street, though Wanstead, Leyton, Mile End and Bethnal Green were closed. Then Metropolitan to Euston Square (Moorgate and Barbican closed), 5 minute walk to Euston main line.

    Got to Coventry at 12.40.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    PlatoSaid said:

    Off topic, but just catching up with the Golden Globes news.

    What is it about Hollywood actors that makes them think that accepting an award for their acting is both an appropriate platform for a political speech, and that everyone wants to hear it?

    The tally of actors I can't watch with much enthusiasm, continues to grow apace. I wish they'd all pack it in.
    Already given up on Sherlock.

    A lot of random shite masquerading as cleverness.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    tpfkar said:

    Obamacare at 5/1 looks value to me.

    Sorry to go back to Brexit so quickly, but a question that's troubling me. It seems that our 2 red lines are forming around 1) control of UK borders 2) no European Court of Justice oversight.

    #1 I can at least understand.
    But my question to leavers is on #2 - assuming there is some arrangement with the EU albeit looser than we have now, who do we want to police it? Surely there needs to be some arbiter of disputes? No way the EU would agree that everything would be decided by the Supreme Court in London (which is stuffed with ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE lest we forget) So who? An entirely separate legal mechanism? A new court etc? Who would Leavers trust to oversee this?

    If we're targeting CETA model (which I don't think we'll get in 24 months) it has a bespoke ISDS court made up of 15 members from the UK and EU.

    If we're going for something more comprehensive then the EFTA court possibly, although I think, politically, the EU will want to make us subject to the ECJ in something so they can say, "a-ha, the UK has left but now has to comply with X without having any say in the rules"

    The job of the UK Government will be to try and negotiate that that 'X' is in a relatively politically unimportant field.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will be a very rocky ride, with the pound all over the place, and the deal will only be struck at one minute to midnight but the rest of your post is hyperbole.
    Even if it goes according to plan, there isn't a single 'midnight' moment. Just a series of bumps as power is progressively stripped away from Westminster.

    So far events are playing out exactly as I predicted.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    nunu said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Off topic, but just catching up with the Golden Globes news.

    What is it about Hollywood actors that makes them think that accepting an award for their acting is both an appropriate platform for a political speech, and that everyone wants to hear it?

    The tally of actors I can't watch with much enthusiasm, continues to grow apace. I wish they'd all pack it in.
    You want a safe space is what you are saying.

    http://news.sky.com/story/uk-to-remain-home-of-rolls-royce-after-remarkable-sales-10722679
    Que? I'm saying that once I know an actor's political viewpoint believes I'm scum for not sharing theirs - it obviously doesn't help me enjoy their work. I think they're harming themselves professionally.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Off topic, but just catching up with the Golden Globes news.

    What is it about Hollywood actors that makes them think that accepting an award for their acting is both an appropriate platform for a political speech, and that everyone wants to hear it?

    The tally of actors I can't watch with much enthusiasm, continues to grow apace. I wish they'd all pack it in.
    Already given up on Sherlock.

    A lot of random shite masquerading as cleverness.
    No, JUST NO.

    Sherlock is awesome.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    May simply stated the obvious that full membership of the single market is unlikely given the need for border control even if May still does want to do a trade deal of some form and it is better the markets realise that now rather than once the deal has been concluded.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    Roger, off topic (but on-topic for you), not looking like much to touch La La Land at the Oscars. Not seen it yet, though I have now seen most of the other films around. What a crap year! Very few films or performances of note, IMHO. I've probably enjoyed many more of the documentaries this year than the drama. Not even occasional off-beat gems that you usually find in-amongst. I watched Paterson and thought "This is exactly the same Jim Jarmusch movie I was watching 30 years ago!" I made about 40 minutes of Silence - unremittingly bleak (it starts with Jesuit priests being tortured at a natural hot-springs, and gets even bleaker after that. Why was this a Scorcese passion-project for 30 years?).

    Be interested to hear if I have missed something!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Like War Games, the only way to win is not to play.

    Wouldn't you prefer a nice game of chess?
    I'd suggest Go, but that might lead to another long discussion about the feasibility of Artificial Intelligence and I haven't got the strength for that two days running.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will be a very rocky ride, with the pound all over the place, and the deal will only be struck at one minute to midnight but the rest of your post is hyperbole.
    Even if it goes according to plan, there isn't a single 'midnight' moment. Just a series of bumps as power is progressively stripped away from Westminster.

    So far events are playing out exactly as I predicted.
    Could you point me to the bullet points (with date) setting out your prediction, please,
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will be a very rocky ride, with the pound all over the place, and the deal will only be struck at one minute to midnight but the rest of your post is hyperbole.
    Even if it goes according to plan, there isn't a single 'midnight' moment. Just a series of bumps as power is progressively stripped away from Westminster.

    So far events are playing out exactly as I predicted.
    Spooky. Could you just point us to the prediction you made?
  • tpfkar said:

    Obamacare at 5/1 looks value to me.

    Sorry to go back to Brexit so quickly, but a question that's troubling me. It seems that our 2 red lines are forming around 1) control of UK borders 2) no European Court of Justice oversight.

    #1 I can at least understand.
    But my question to leavers is on #2 - assuming there is some arrangement with the EU albeit looser than we have now, who do we want to police it? Surely there needs to be some arbiter of disputes? No way the EU would agree that everything would be decided by the Supreme Court in London (which is stuffed with ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE lest we forget) So who? An entirely separate legal mechanism? A new court etc? Who would Leavers trust to oversee this?

    Absolutely not the ECJ, Any future deal we make will be a deal between the EU and the UK.

    The ECJ is a body of the EU and why would we trust a body of the EU to oversee a deal between the EU and the UK? How is the ECJ ever going to be impartial in any dispute between the UK and the EU? I don't know of any deal anywhere where one party is its own adjudicator between itself and another party.

    That would be like NAFTA being overseen by SCOTUS. It isn't.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited January 2017

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    Roger, off topic (but on-topic for you), not looking like much to touch La La Land at the Oscars. Not seen it yet, though I have now seen most of the other films around. What a crap year! Very few films or performances of note, IMHO. I've probably enjoyed many more of the documentaries this year than the drama. Not even occasional off-beat gems that you usually find in-amongst. I watched Paterson and thought "This is exactly the same Jim Jarmusch movie I was watching 30 years ago!" I made about 40 minutes of Silence - unremittingly bleak (it starts with Jesuit priests being tortured at a natural hot-springs, and gets even bleaker after that. Why was this a Scorcese passion-project for 30 years?).

    Be interested to hear if I have missed something!
    I'm putting my money on Hidden Figures winning best film, 150/1.

    Given the story and that feeling America is regressing under Trump, might be how liberal America fights back.

    FWIW, I enjoyed it.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Like War Games, the only way to win is not to play.

    Wouldn't you prefer a nice game of chess?
    I'd suggest Go, but that might lead to another long discussion about the feasibility of Artificial Intelligence and I haven't got the strength for that two days running.
    An AutoMeeks™ would have the strength.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    felix said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    Your morning cafe au laits getting a bit pricey? The £ has had a bumpy ride both before and since Brexit but if the forecasters had got it right it would be around 20% lower than it is today. There will be more ups and downs this year - but this will diminish as the Brexit package becomes clearer.
    Here's what I think will happen: Article 50 will be triggered in March, along with a declaration of the UK's high-level objectives. The EU27 will then tell us in unison (immediately) to f-off. We'll tell them to f-off back. There'll then be much grandstanding, stalling and crankiness all through 2017, particularly during the EU national elections up to late Autumn. This year will be horrid for headlines, and I suspect the £ will trough at around 1.10-1.15 to the dollar.

    Next year: more business will be done. This will probably be the trickiest time for May domestically because it'll become clear where the redlines really are, and where concessions are being made. But, as news of private progress behind the scenes leaks, towards the back end of 2018, Sterling should improve.

    A few EU countries will then throw their toys out of the pram at the last minute in early 2019, and cause another slump in Sterling as markets worry we'll drop out without a deal.

    Finally, a basic transition (divorce) deal of some sort will be struck late March 2019. The pound will stabilise and May will announce a long-term plan for Brexit off the back of it including future negotiations and intentions of collaboration with the EU.

    Once we've done some penance - a few years outside, and the EU feels it has politically stabilised a bit, and they feel the UK has paid a sufficient price for Brexiting - there'll then be further talk in the 2020s for a more comprehensive deal.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939

    PlatoSaid said:

    Off topic, but just catching up with the Golden Globes news.

    What is it about Hollywood actors that makes them think that accepting an award for their acting is both an appropriate platform for a political speech, and that everyone wants to hear it?

    The tally of actors I can't watch with much enthusiasm, continues to grow apace. I wish they'd all pack it in.


    A lot of random shite masquerading as cleverness.
    Sounds like a PPE course description.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,656

    Obamacare seems like a good bet to me. But I almost always lose on these markets.

    I think that's a very bad bet. If he refers to it at all, it will be under the formal name of the Affordable Care Act.

    Mostly, though, inauguration speeches comprise content-free boiler-plate platitudes:

    http://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1872715,00.html

    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25853

    http://www.bartleby.com/124/pres63.html

    Trump may be different, of course.
    Trump is likely to have a formal speech but also to ad-lib around it.

    His election victory speech may be more of the model - gracious(ish) but also rather long winded.
    His election victory speech and his nomination acceptance speech are about the only things we have to go off as models.
  • Would have been more apt if Cameron had won 4-1.

    Won two general elections, referendums on AV and Scottish Independence, lost a referendum on the EU.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    PlatoSaid said:

    Off topic, but just catching up with the Golden Globes news.

    What is it about Hollywood actors that makes them think that accepting an award for their acting is both an appropriate platform for a political speech, and that everyone wants to hear it?

    The tally of actors I can't watch with much enthusiasm, continues to grow apace. I wish they'd all pack it in.
    Already given up on Sherlock.

    A lot of random shite masquerading as cleverness.
    No, JUST NO.

    Sherlock is awesome.
    It isn't though. Watson is dull - Freeman is reduced to just wincing and gurning - and Sherlock himself is also getting tiresome. They've cut out swathes of the deliberations of visual evidence he used to do, in a very entertaining way, and it's now reduced to him issuing insults and put-downs for over an hour, whilst solving the case itself in a quickfire summary of three minutes right at the very end of the show.

    And you're left thinking: eh?

    We're supposed to think the fact the plots are disconnected, and make virtually no sense are in fact very 'clever', and those who don't get it are stupid, but I think it's actually an excuse for lazy and complacent writing.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,826
    felix said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    Your morning cafe au laits getting a bit pricey? The £ has had a bumpy ride both before and since Brexit but if the forecasters had got it right it would be around 20% lower than it is today. There will be more ups and downs this year - but this will diminish as the Brexit package becomes clearer.
    It's possible but it's also possible the £ will become the plaything of speculators as it famously did in 1992 when the person who got us into this mess was hiding behind Norman Lamont
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    edited January 2017

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will be a very rocky ride, with the pound all over the place, and the deal will only be struck at one minute to midnight but the rest of your post is hyperbole.
    Even if it goes according to plan, there isn't a single 'midnight' moment. Just a series of bumps as power is progressively stripped away from Westminster.

    So far events are playing out exactly as I predicted.
    Hahaha.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    edited January 2017

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will be a very rocky ride, with the pound all over the place, and the deal will only be struck at one minute to midnight but the rest of your post is hyperbole.
    Even if it goes according to plan, there isn't a single 'midnight' moment. Just a series of bumps as power is progressively stripped away from Westminster.

    So far events are playing out exactly as I predicted.
    If events play out exactly as you predict, the UK will be like Threads, and we'll be giving birth to stillborn deformed children, speaking pigeon English, and stripping radioactive sheep in the High Peaks for meat inside 3 years.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,514

    Sandpit said:

    Obamacare seems like a good bet to me. But I almost always lose on these markets.

    I think that's a very bad bet. If he refers to it at all, it will be under the formal name of the Affordable Care Act.

    Mostly, though, inauguration speeches comprise content-free boiler-plate platitudes:

    http://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1872715,00.html

    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25853

    http://www.bartleby.com/124/pres63.html

    Trump may be different, of course.
    Trump is Trump, but it's still going to be very scripted, probably the most scripted speech he's ever made. He knows the world will be listening, that it isn't the time or the place for hyperbole or pisstaking.
    Just the thought of Trump standing there taking the oath is too weird for me. I mean seriously, is this actually happening or will I wake up shortly?
    ....and will, to the best of my ability, which is terrific ability by the way. Everyone agrees I have fantastic ability. So there's no problem with my ability, believe me ....
  • tpfkar said:

    Obamacare at 5/1 looks value to me.

    Sorry to go back to Brexit so quickly, but a question that's troubling me. It seems that our 2 red lines are forming around 1) control of UK borders 2) no European Court of Justice oversight.

    #1 I can at least understand.
    But my question to leavers is on #2 - assuming there is some arrangement with the EU albeit looser than we have now, who do we want to police it? Surely there needs to be some arbiter of disputes? No way the EU would agree that everything would be decided by the Supreme Court in London (which is stuffed with ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE lest we forget) So who? An entirely separate legal mechanism? A new court etc? Who would Leavers trust to oversee this?

    Absolutely not the ECJ, Any future deal we make will be a deal between the EU and the UK.

    The ECJ is a body of the EU and why would we trust a body of the EU to oversee a deal between the EU and the UK? How is the ECJ ever going to be impartial in any dispute between the UK and the EU? I don't know of any deal anywhere where one party is its own adjudicator between itself and another party.

    That would be like NAFTA being overseen by SCOTUS. It isn't.

    The ECJ's role is to rule on EU law, not on trade deals. It will continue to rule on EU/UK matters in so far as they have an impact on the exercise of EU law inside the EU and it may well be that it is given oversight in some areas that have a direct impact in the UK, too. Intellectual property may well be one of them. There is also the ongoing de facto role that the ECJ will play in areas such as competition law.

  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited January 2017
    felix said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    Your morning cafe au laits getting a bit pricey? The £ has had a bumpy ride both before and since Brexit but if the forecasters had got it right it would be around 20% lower than it is today.
    No, the fall in £ was forecast to be between 12% and 18% in the event of a Brexit vote. That's equivalent to £:$ of $1.19 to $1.28, which is the range its currently in. The Treasury prediction was pretty much spot on.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    matt said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will be a very rocky ride, with the pound all over the place, and the deal will only be struck at one minute to midnight but the rest of your post is hyperbole.
    Even if it goes according to plan, there isn't a single 'midnight' moment. Just a series of bumps as power is progressively stripped away from Westminster.

    So far events are playing out exactly as I predicted.
    Could you point me to the bullet points (with date) setting out your prediction, please,
    Despite all appearances I don't have time to go looking for past posts now but will oblige when I can. It's no secret that I don't think Brexit will happen.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Like War Games, the only way to win is not to play.

    Wouldn't you prefer a nice game of chess?
    I'd suggest Go, but that might lead to another long discussion about the feasibility of Artificial Intelligence and I haven't got the strength for that two days running.
    An AutoMeeks™ would have the strength.
    It wouldn't take much programming either.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will be a very rocky ride, with the pound all over the place, and the deal will only be struck at one minute to midnight but the rest of your post is hyperbole.
    Even if it goes according to plan, there isn't a single 'midnight' moment. Just a series of bumps as power is progressively stripped away from Westminster.

    So far events are playing out exactly as I predicted.
    If events play out exactly as you predict, the UK will be like Threads, and we'll be giving birth to stillborn deformed children, speaking pigeon English, and stripping radioactive sheep in the High Peaks for meat inside 3 years.
    You've been to Derbyshire then.
  • Sandpit said:

    Obamacare seems like a good bet to me. But I almost always lose on these markets.

    I think that's a very bad bet. If he refers to it at all, it will be under the formal name of the Affordable Care Act.

    Mostly, though, inauguration speeches comprise content-free boiler-plate platitudes:

    http://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1872715,00.html

    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25853

    http://www.bartleby.com/124/pres63.html

    Trump may be different, of course.
    Trump is Trump, but it's still going to be very scripted, probably the most scripted speech he's ever made. He knows the world will be listening, that it isn't the time or the place for hyperbole or pisstaking.
    Just the thought of Trump standing there taking the oath is too weird for me. I mean seriously, is this actually happening or will I wake up shortly?
    I still have the vision/dream of Mike Pence going all Aaron Burr and shooting Donald Trump.

    Not sure how the Twenty-fifth amendment plays out in that scenario.
  • Off topic, but just catching up with the Golden Globes news.

    What is it about Hollywood actors that makes them think that accepting an award for their acting is both an appropriate platform for a political speech, and that everyone wants to hear it?

    If Trump can mock the disabled in front of an adoring, cheering crowd; what's wrong with Streep using the platform she was given to call him out over it?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    edited January 2017

    Would have been more apt if Cameron had won 4-1.

    Won two general elections, referendums on AV and Scottish Independence, lost a referendum on the EU.
    Ancient history was never my strong point, but didn't Dave campaign AGAINST AV?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,656
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will happen.

    The country won't fall apart.

    Forex traders and luvvies will overreact. They will then wake up after the event, go back to work and at some point the penny will drop (as opposed to the pound), that most people will just get on with it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited January 2017

    Would have been more apt if Cameron had won 4-1.

    Won two general elections, referendums on AV and Scottish Independence, lost a referendum on the EU.
    Ancient history was never my strong point, but didn't Dave campaign AGAINST AV?
    Turns out prepositions aren't your strong point either.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    tpfkar said:

    Obamacare at 5/1 looks value to me.

    Sorry to go back to Brexit so quickly, but a question that's troubling me. It seems that our 2 red lines are forming around 1) control of UK borders 2) no European Court of Justice oversight.

    #1 I can at least understand.
    But my question to leavers is on #2 - assuming there is some arrangement with the EU albeit looser than we have now, who do we want to police it? Surely there needs to be some arbiter of disputes? No way the EU would agree that everything would be decided by the Supreme Court in London (which is stuffed with ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE lest we forget) So who? An entirely separate legal mechanism? A new court etc? Who would Leavers trust to oversee this?

    Absolutely not the ECJ, Any future deal we make will be a deal between the EU and the UK.

    The ECJ is a body of the EU and why would we trust a body of the EU to oversee a deal between the EU and the UK? How is the ECJ ever going to be impartial in any dispute between the UK and the EU? I don't know of any deal anywhere where one party is its own adjudicator between itself and another party.

    That would be like NAFTA being overseen by SCOTUS. It isn't.

    The ECJ's role is to rule on EU law, not on trade deals. It will continue to rule on EU/UK matters in so far as they have an impact on the exercise of EU law inside the EU and it may well be that it is given oversight in some areas that have a direct impact in the UK, too. Intellectual property may well be one of them. There is also the ongoing de facto role that the ECJ will play in areas such as competition law.

    And in Transport and Energy where we have strong infrastructure connections to the continent, and thereby the EU, but it will make sense for both the UK-EU to coordinate and collaborate.

    As I've said before, the only deal that'll 'stick' is one that both Leavers *and* Remainers can both applaud, and criticise.

    Which means we'll be arguing about it forever.

    Which is terrific.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will happen.

    The country won't fall apart.

    Forex traders and luvvies will overreact. They will then wake up after the event, go back to work and at some point the penny will drop (as opposed to the pound), that most people will just get on with it.
    Where can I play the pound on the markets?

    Is there a Betfair "financials", or something?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    matt said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will be a very rocky ride, with the pound all over the place, and the deal will only be struck at one minute to midnight but the rest of your post is hyperbole.
    Even if it goes according to plan, there isn't a single 'midnight' moment. Just a series of bumps as power is progressively stripped away from Westminster.

    So far events are playing out exactly as I predicted.
    Could you point me to the bullet points (with date) setting out your prediction, please,
    Despite all appearances I don't have time to go looking for past posts now but will oblige when I can. It's no secret that I don't think Brexit will happen.
    LOL. Nostradamus, eat your heart out.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    tpfkar said:

    Obamacare at 5/1 looks value to me.

    Sorry to go back to Brexit so quickly, but a question that's troubling me. It seems that our 2 red lines are forming around 1) control of UK borders 2) no European Court of Justice oversight.

    #1 I can at least understand.
    But my question to leavers is on #2 - assuming there is some arrangement with the EU albeit looser than we have now, who do we want to police it? Surely there needs to be some arbiter of disputes? No way the EU would agree that everything would be decided by the Supreme Court in London (which is stuffed with ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE lest we forget) So who? An entirely separate legal mechanism? A new court etc? Who would Leavers trust to oversee this?

    Absolutely not the ECJ, Any future deal we make will be a deal between the EU and the UK.

    The ECJ is a body of the EU and why would we trust a body of the EU to oversee a deal between the EU and the UK? How is the ECJ ever going to be impartial in any dispute between the UK and the EU? I don't know of any deal anywhere where one party is its own adjudicator between itself and another party.

    That would be like NAFTA being overseen by SCOTUS. It isn't.
    NAFTA is overseen by US ISDS Tribunals that operate in secret and have the right to levy unlimited fines.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    Off topic, but just catching up with the Golden Globes news.

    What is it about Hollywood actors that makes them think that accepting an award for their acting is both an appropriate platform for a political speech, and that everyone wants to hear it?

    If Trump can mock the disabled in front of an adoring, cheering crowd; what's wrong with Streep using the platform she was given to call him out over it?

    Firstly, I don't think Trump should be mocking the disabled. But he was running for political office.

    It's not just Streep. Whenever many actors get up to receive an award *for their work in acting* they feel that what people really should be privileged to hear in gratitude is their political views, for which they expect to be applauded.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,561

    tpfkar said:

    Obamacare at 5/1 looks value to me.

    Sorry to go back to Brexit so quickly, but a question that's troubling me. It seems that our 2 red lines are forming around 1) control of UK borders 2) no European Court of Justice oversight.

    #1 I can at least understand.
    But my question to leavers is on #2 - assuming there is some arrangement with the EU albeit looser than we have now, who do we want to police it? Surely there needs to be some arbiter of disputes? No way the EU would agree that everything would be decided by the Supreme Court in London (which is stuffed with ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE lest we forget) So who? An entirely separate legal mechanism? A new court etc? Who would Leavers trust to oversee this?

    Absolutely not the ECJ, Any future deal we make will be a deal between the EU and the UK.

    The ECJ is a body of the EU and why would we trust a body of the EU to oversee a deal between the EU and the UK? How is the ECJ ever going to be impartial in any dispute between the UK and the EU? I don't know of any deal anywhere where one party is its own adjudicator between itself and another party.

    That would be like NAFTA being overseen by SCOTUS. It isn't.
    I can understand that reaction - so who? We're past the point when we can simply be against stuff, we have to have proposals we are in favour of.

    Casino Royale helpfully suggested a bespoke court along the lines of the ISDS court made up of representatives from both sides. From where I'm sitting that would be worse than the ECJ as it would create a separate bureaucracy and power base - but I've learnt not to judge anything on Brexit from my vantage point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    Ishmael_Z said:

    matt said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will be a very rocky ride, with the pound all over the place, and the deal will only be struck at one minute to midnight but the rest of your post is hyperbole.
    Even if it goes according to plan, there isn't a single 'midnight' moment. Just a series of bumps as power is progressively stripped away from Westminster.

    So far events are playing out exactly as I predicted.
    Could you point me to the bullet points (with date) setting out your prediction, please,
    Despite all appearances I don't have time to go looking for past posts now but will oblige when I can. It's no secret that I don't think Brexit will happen.
    LOL. Nostradamus, eat your heart out.
    Mock all you want but I have the best record on the US election of anyone on here.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,656

    Would have been more apt if Cameron had won 4-1.

    Won two general elections, referendums on AV and Scottish Independence, lost a referendum on the EU.
    Ancient history was never my strong point, but didn't Dave campaign AGAINST AV?
    Yes. And that side won. He campaigned for 'No' in the SIndyRef too.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Sandpit said:

    Obamacare seems like a good bet to me. But I almost always lose on these markets.

    I think that's a very bad bet. If he refers to it at all, it will be under the formal name of the Affordable Care Act.

    Mostly, though, inauguration speeches comprise content-free boiler-plate platitudes:

    http://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1872715,00.html

    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25853

    http://www.bartleby.com/124/pres63.html

    Trump may be different, of course.
    Trump is Trump, but it's still going to be very scripted, probably the most scripted speech he's ever made. He knows the world will be listening, that it isn't the time or the place for hyperbole or pisstaking.
    Just the thought of Trump standing there taking the oath is too weird for me. I mean seriously, is this actually happening or will I wake up shortly?
    I still have the vision/dream of Mike Pence going all Aaron Burr and shooting Donald Trump.

    Not sure how the Twenty-fifth amendment plays out in that scenario.
    The assassination rate for presidents is about 9 % (4 out of 43, not 44 because Obama hasn't yet made it to the finish). Must be a real possibility.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    He's not going to mention the FBI. I doubt he will mention Russia or Putin either. He's going to give a seriousish speech focused wholly on domestic reform. It will have his trumpy touches, so expect to see Huge and Tremendous make an appearance (there should be odds for how many times he says tremendous!). Brexit and Farage are not going to make the cut. I think his most divisive terms are unlikely to make an appearance (so no biased media, mexico going to pay, or obamacare).

    As others have said, the best model is his election victory speech, in which he basically said nothing at all of substance.
  • Would have been more apt if Cameron had won 4-1.

    Won two general elections, referendums on AV and Scottish Independence, lost a referendum on the EU.
    Ancient history was never my strong point, but didn't Dave campaign AGAINST AV?
    Turns out prepositions aren't you strong point either.
    But you're an AV fan, and Dave campaigned against AV.

    BTW you missed out the 'r' in 'your'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972

    matt said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will be a very rocky ride, with the pound all over the place, and the deal will only be struck at one minute to midnight but the rest of your post is hyperbole.
    Even if it goes according to plan, there isn't a single 'midnight' moment. Just a series of bumps as power is progressively stripped away from Westminster.

    So far events are playing out exactly as I predicted.
    Could you point me to the bullet points (with date) setting out your prediction, please,
    Despite all appearances I don't have time to go looking for past posts now but will oblige when I can. It's no secret that I don't think Brexit will happen.
    If Brexit, even soft Brexit, didn't happen, UKIP may well win the next election in my view. However May will undertake Brexit, even if the form is not yet completely determined, so they won't
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    HYUFD said:

    matt said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. As everyone knows the £ has dropped another 1% (infact slightly more) against both the $ and the Euro. Mrs May was never meant to be a leader. She neither prepared for it nor is she up to it.

    But surely among her vast army of civil servants there must be someone senior enough to warn her that now she's PM the briefest of burps can sent our flimsy currency flailing so why can't she just keep her big trap shut?

    It's going to be a long 28 months for you, isn't it?
    No because I don't believe it will happen in the form she suggests. As the country starts coming apart at the seams wiser council will take control and the wise folk from Hartlepool will be sidelined
    It will be a very rocky ride, with the pound all over the place, and the deal will only be struck at one minute to midnight but the rest of your post is hyperbole.
    Even if it goes according to plan, there isn't a single 'midnight' moment. Just a series of bumps as power is progressively stripped away from Westminster.

    So far events are playing out exactly as I predicted.
    Could you point me to the bullet points (with date) setting out your prediction, please,
    Despite all appearances I don't have time to go looking for past posts now but will oblige when I can. It's no secret that I don't think Brexit will happen.
    If Brexit, even soft Brexit, didn't happen, UKIP may well win the next election in my view. However May will undertake Brexit, even if the form is not yet completely determined, so they won't
    UKIP are a busted flush. Even their European allies are deserting them. Trump will dump Farage and prove to be an agent of European integration.
  • Would have been more apt if Cameron had won 4-1.

    Won two general elections, referendums on AV and Scottish Independence, lost a referendum on the EU.
    Ancient history was never my strong point, but didn't Dave campaign AGAINST AV?
    Yes. And that side won. He campaigned for 'No' in the SIndyRef too.
    TSE is a fan of AV, however...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,656

    Sandpit said:

    Obamacare seems like a good bet to me. But I almost always lose on these markets.

    I think that's a very bad bet. If he refers to it at all, it will be under the formal name of the Affordable Care Act.

    Mostly, though, inauguration speeches comprise content-free boiler-plate platitudes:

    http://content.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1872715,00.html

    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25853

    http://www.bartleby.com/124/pres63.html

    Trump may be different, of course.
    Trump is Trump, but it's still going to be very scripted, probably the most scripted speech he's ever made. He knows the world will be listening, that it isn't the time or the place for hyperbole or pisstaking.
    Just the thought of Trump standing there taking the oath is too weird for me. I mean seriously, is this actually happening or will I wake up shortly?
    I still have the vision/dream of Mike Pence going all Aaron Burr and shooting Donald Trump.

    Not sure how the Twenty-fifth amendment plays out in that scenario.
    Pence would become president and then be impeached. He might well be declared medically unfit in the interim.

    (Though of course Burr shot Hamilton, not Jefferson - and did so after Hamilton had challenged him.)
  • tpfkar said:

    tpfkar said:

    Obamacare at 5/1 looks value to me.

    Sorry to go back to Brexit so quickly, but a question that's troubling me. It seems that our 2 red lines are forming around 1) control of UK borders 2) no European Court of Justice oversight.

    #1 I can at least understand.
    But my question to leavers is on #2 - assuming there is some arrangement with the EU albeit looser than we have now, who do we want to police it? Surely there needs to be some arbiter of disputes? No way the EU would agree that everything would be decided by the Supreme Court in London (which is stuffed with ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE lest we forget) So who? An entirely separate legal mechanism? A new court etc? Who would Leavers trust to oversee this?

    Absolutely not the ECJ, Any future deal we make will be a deal between the EU and the UK.

    The ECJ is a body of the EU and why would we trust a body of the EU to oversee a deal between the EU and the UK? How is the ECJ ever going to be impartial in any dispute between the UK and the EU? I don't know of any deal anywhere where one party is its own adjudicator between itself and another party.

    That would be like NAFTA being overseen by SCOTUS. It isn't.
    I can understand that reaction - so who? We're past the point when we can simply be against stuff, we have to have proposals we are in favour of.

    Casino Royale helpfully suggested a bespoke court along the lines of the ISDS court made up of representatives from both sides. From where I'm sitting that would be worse than the ECJ as it would create a separate bureaucracy and power base - but I've learnt not to judge anything on Brexit from my vantage point.
    Agreed a bespoke ISDS is the only viable solution and is standard for this sort of deal.

    ISDS tend to have a minimal influence conflict resolution style whereas courts tend to view themselves as a law unto themselves so an ISDS would be far preferable to having a foreign bodies domestic court ruling over our agreements.
  • Off topic, but just catching up with the Golden Globes news.

    What is it about Hollywood actors that makes them think that accepting an award for their acting is both an appropriate platform for a political speech, and that everyone wants to hear it?

    If Trump can mock the disabled in front of an adoring, cheering crowd; what's wrong with Streep using the platform she was given to call him out over it?

    Firstly, I don't think Trump should be mocking the disabled. But he was running for political office.

    It's not just Streep. Whenever many actors get up to receive an award *for their work in acting* they feel that what people really should be privileged to hear in gratitude is their political views, for which they expect to be applauded.

    If you have a platform use it. Seems obvious to me. And if you are outraged that your future head of state openly mocks the disabled you should have every right to say so. If people do not agree they can switch off, turn over or fume.

This discussion has been closed.