politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve backed Diane Abbott to be next Labour leader
Comments
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Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Theresa May is going to tell the EU we are leaving lock stock and barrel and is calling their bluff over trade.
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It is a bold statement and one that is likely to gather majority supportwilliamglenn said:
Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Theresa May is going to tell the EU we are leaving lock stock and barrel and is calling their bluff over trade.
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May has no mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary yes or no vote in a certain way. So be it. But we are going to be making it more expensive and time consuming to do business in a market where 44% of our exports go.HYUFD said:
Well if the EU will not make any compromise on border control so be it, May has a mandate from the Leave vote and she will deliver on itSouthamObserver said:
Yes, they are going there already. We will not cease trading with the EU, but it will become more costly and less time efficient.HYUFD said:
So 56% of our exports now go outside the EU not forgetting of course we will not cease trading with the EU regardless of what happensSouthamObserver said:
Yep - we are removing ourselves from the market 44% of our exports go to and hoping that the damage this will do will be offset by trade agreements we can finalise with other countries who will know how desperate we are. Should be fun.chestnut said:
It sounds like leaving the EU and having a new friendlier, looser relationship with them, and most critically the 7bn people and 88% of the global economy that isn't little Europe.nunu said:"The UK cannot expect to hold on to "bits" of its membership after leaving the EU, Theresa May has said."
Damn that sounds like a very hard brexit to me.. BBC Website.
Excellent.
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So while for us it's all about sovereignty and control, for them it's just about the bottom line? How could it possibly go wrong?chestnut said:
Somewhere in Europe someone is saying exactly the same thing as you -but with UK replacing the EU in the sentence.SouthamObserver said:Yes, they are going there already. We will not cease trading with the EU, but it will become more costly and less time efficient.
(I feel like I've inadvertently triggered AlsoIndigo's Brexit macro.)
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May has no mandate - so we ignore 17 million who voted out. You may not like it but we are leavingSouthamObserver said:
May has no mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary yes or no vote in a certain way. So be it. But we are going to be making it more expensive and time consuming to do business in a market where 44% of our exports go.HYUFD said:
Well if the EU will not make any compromise on border control so be it, May has a mandate from the Leave vote and she will deliver on itSouthamObserver said:
Yes, they are going there already. We will not cease trading with the EU, but it will become more costly and less time efficient.HYUFD said:
So 56% of our exports now go outside the EU not forgetting of course we will not cease trading with the EU regardless of what happensSouthamObserver said:
Yep - we are removing ourselves from the market 44% of our exports go to and hoping that the damage this will do will be offset by trade agreements we can finalise with other countries who will know how desperate we are. Should be fun.chestnut said:
It sounds like leaving the EU and having a new friendlier, looser relationship with them, and most critically the 7bn people and 88% of the global economy that isn't little Europe.nunu said:"The UK cannot expect to hold on to "bits" of its membership after leaving the EU, Theresa May has said."
Damn that sounds like a very hard brexit to me.. BBC Website.
Excellent.0 -
The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a bold statement and one that is likely to gather majority supportwilliamglenn said:
Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Theresa May is going to tell the EU we are leaving lock stock and barrel and is calling their bluff over trade.
61% of Greeks voted to reject the terms, and they ended up signing worse terms.0 -
You really do need to realise that we are going out of the EU and life will continue on the other side - deal or no dealwilliamglenn said:
The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a bold statement and one that is likely to gather majority supportwilliamglenn said:
Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Theresa May is going to tell the EU we are leaving lock stock and barrel and is calling their bluff over trade.
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There is no them and us in this.williamglenn said:
So while for us it's all about sovereignty and control, for them it's just about the bottom line? How could it possibly go wrong?chestnut said:
Somewhere in Europe someone is saying exactly the same thing as you -but with UK replacing the EU in the sentence.SouthamObserver said:Yes, they are going there already. We will not cease trading with the EU, but it will become more costly and less time efficient.
(I feel like I've inadvertently triggered AlsoIndigo's Brexit macro.)
There are politicians who answer to electorates (28 of them, not the UK and EU) and there are decision makers and shareholders in individual businesses.
The latter will do whatever they think is right for their individual businesses and their bottom line.
All the politicians are doing is creating the framework that those decisions will be made within. They are not making the decisions.0 -
We aren't the Greeks. Our economy is in a much better position than theirs.williamglenn said:
The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a bold statement and one that is likely to gather majority supportwilliamglenn said:
Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Theresa May is going to tell the EU we are leaving lock stock and barrel and is calling their bluff over trade.
61% of Greeks voted to reject the terms, and they ended up signing worse terms.0 -
williamglenn said:
The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a bold statement and one that is likely to gather majority supportwilliamglenn said:
Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Theresa May is going to tell the EU we are leaving lock stock and barrel and is calling their bluff over trade.
61% of Greeks voted to reject the terms, and they ended up signing worse terms.
That comparison has so many points of failure.
D-
(The D- is your score, not an attempt at an emoji).
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Threatening mutual harm in order to obtain impossible concessions? It's not as different as you think.MarkHopkins said:
That comparison has so many points of failure.williamglenn said:
The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a bold statement and one that is likely to gather majority supportwilliamglenn said:
Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Theresa May is going to tell the EU we are leaving lock stock and barrel and is calling their bluff over trade.
61% of Greeks voted to reject the terms, and they ended up signing worse terms.0 -
HYUFD said:
You are just taking these events at face value and not looking.at.the bigger picture. I dont think.you can take much out of trumps pro brexit stance in that it was primarily motivated by politics and not some new doctrine of international relations. Similarly I would take little.comfort in the current 45 percent support for independence in scotland nor the policy of the current argentine govt towards the falklands.nielh said:
The AfD, the FN, 5* etc do want to leave the Euro though and that would destabilise the whole EU system.HYUFD said:
True finns are in power but there is no all.rottenborough said:
The nationalist True Finns are in a coalition government in FinlandHYUFD said:
Interestingly, Finland will hold the EU council presidency in the (potentially) crucial period July-Dec 2019.nielh said:Abbot is very unlikely to be the next labour leader but those odds are ok as a possible trading bet.
Rogers departure from the civil service is interesting. If I was in the foreign office I would be looking at other employment options of it then great ill be happy to be ). Once migrants from Eastern Europe and the Balkans start to move elsewhere in Europe to states still in the EEA if the UK implements border control then you are likely to see an increase in demands for border control there too
On the broader point, to me brexit marks the end
On the broader point as stated you are of course wrong for as previously stated the UK has not been a superpower since the independence of India and the end of the British Empire, attempts to use the EU to become a superpower would not make the UK a superpower on its own. The new US President openly supported Brexit before his election, post Brexit UK also has little need to concern itself with Russia, if anything Eastern European nations should be more concerned as along with France the UK provides most of Europe's defence. The nats would still lose any second referendum as all the polls show and as for the Falklands as also previously stated the new President of Argentina Mauricio Macri is a technocrat not a Fascist as was the case in 1982 and also has zero interest in starting a war with the UK his focus is on reviving the Argentine economy
Britain is not a.superpower but has a lot of influence hard and soft power. Disporoportionate to its size. This is what diplomats rightly fret about. It is diminishing with brexit.0 -
She became PM because 17 million voted to Leave the EU and the reason Leave got over the line was because of the desire for border control, that is her mandate and that is what she will implementSouthamObserver said:
May has no mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary yes or no vote in a certain way. So be it. But we are going to be making it more expensive and time consuming to do business in a market where 44% of our exports go.HYUFD said:
Well if the EU will not make any compromise on border control so be it, May has a mandate from the Leave vote and she will deliver on itSouthamObserver said:
Yes, they are going there already. We will not cease trading with the EU, but it will become more costly and less time efficient.HYUFD said:
So 56% of our exports now go outside the EU not forgetting of course we will not cease trading with the EU regardless of what happensSouthamObserver said:
Yep - we are removing ourselves from the market 44% of our exports go to and hoping that the damage this will do will be offset by trade agreements we can finalise with other countries who will know how desperate we are. Should be fun.chestnut said:
It sounds like leaving the EU and having a new friendlier, looser relationship with them, and most critically the 7bn people and 88% of the global economy that isn't little Europe.nunu said:"The UK cannot expect to hold on to "bits" of its membership after leaving the EU, Theresa May has said."
Damn that sounds like a very hard brexit to me.. BBC Website.
Excellent.0 -
Greece was in the Euro, unlike the UK, and with 25% unemployment unlike the UK's 5%williamglenn said:
The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a bold statement and one that is likely to gather majority supportwilliamglenn said:
Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Theresa May is going to tell the EU we are leaving lock stock and barrel and is calling their bluff over trade.
61% of Greeks voted to reject the terms, and they ended up signing worse terms.0 -
Is it coincidence that most of the prominent Brexiteers are among their number?Pauly said:The Labour Party need a mandatory retirement age for MPs. (All parties do tbf, but Labour is particularly bad)
Gerald Kaufman
Dennis Skinner
David Winnick
Paul Flynn
Ann Clwyd
Geoffrey Robinson
Barry Sheerman
Jim Cunningham
Kelvin Hopkins
Frank Field
Margaret Beckett
Ronnie Campbell
Margaret Hodge
Adrian Bailey
Kevin Barron
Kate Hoey
Ann Coffey
Roger Godsiff
David Crausby
All over 70 - the by-election risk is just too great from an actuarial perspective. [This list may be wrong, DYOR]0 -
So you're saying the amount of disruption we can threaten is more limited?HYUFD said:
Greece was in the Euro, unlike the UK, and with 25% unemployment unlike the UK's 5%williamglenn said:
The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a bold statement and one that is likely to gather majority supportwilliamglenn said:
Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Theresa May is going to tell the EU we are leaving lock stock and barrel and is calling their bluff over trade.
61% of Greeks voted to reject the terms, and they ended up signing worse terms.0 -
nielh said:
Without Brexit Trump may well not have won. You can argue about comfort or not but Scotland does the vast majority of its trade with the UK not the EU and the UK only a minority of its trade with the EU and Argentina has its own domestic problems to sort out which was precisely why the current president was elected coupled with the fact the UK has a significantly larger and more effective military than the Argentines too.HYUFD said:
You are just taking these events at face value and not looking.at.the bigger picture. I dont think.you can take much out of trumps pro brexit stance in that it was primarily motivated by politics and not some new doctrine of international relations. Similarly I would take little.comfort in the current 45 percent support for independence in scotland nor the policy of the current argentine govt towards the falklands.nielh said:
The AfD, the FN, 5* etc do want to leave the Euro though and that would destabilise the whole EU system.HYUFD said:
True finns are in power but there is no all.rottenborough said:
The nationalist True Finns are in a coalition government in FinlandHYUFD said:
Interestingly, Finland will hold the EU council presidency in the (potentially) crucial period July-Dec 2019.nielh said:Abbot is very unlikely to be the next labour leader but those odds are ok as a possible trading bet.
Rogers departure from the civil service is interesting. If I was in the foreign office I would be looking at other employment options of it then great ill be happy to be ). Once migrants from Eastern Europe and the Balkans start to move elsewhere in Europe to states still in the EEA if the UK implements border control then you are likely to see an increase in demands for border control there too
On the broader point, to me brexit marks the end
On the broader point as stated you are of course wrong for as previously stated the UK has not been a superpower since the independence of India and the end of the British Empire, attempts to use the EU to become a superpower would not make the UK a superpower on its own. The new US President openly supported Brexit before his election, post Brexit UK also has little need to concern itself with Russia, if anything Eastern European nations should be more concerned as along
Britain is not a.superpower but has a lot of influence hard and soft power. Disporoportionate to its size. This is what diplomats rightly fret about. It is diminishing with brexit.
As for hard and soft power if more and more of that went to the EU then that would arguably have been a bigger threat to it than Brexit0 -
We are not aiming to threaten disruption, we are aiming to regain control of our borders, whether the EU agrees to that and some form of trade deal is up to them but that is what we will do regardlesswilliamglenn said:
So you're saying the amount of disruption we can threaten is more limited?HYUFD said:
Greece was in the Euro, unlike the UK, and with 25% unemployment unlike the UK's 5%williamglenn said:
The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a bold statement and one that is likely to gather majority supportwilliamglenn said:
Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Theresa May is going to tell the EU we are leaving lock stock and barrel and is calling their bluff over trade.
61% of Greeks voted to reject the terms, and they ended up signing worse terms.0 -
No, people who are old enough to remember success before the EU are able to envision life after the EU. It's harder for people like me who are younger than UK's membership of the EU to grasp that. (Although they've convinced me they're right)Roger said:
Is it coincidence that most of the prominent Brexiteers are among their number?Pauly said:The Labour Party need a mandatory retirement age for MPs. (All parties do tbf, but Labour is particularly bad)
Gerald Kaufman
Dennis Skinner
David Winnick
Paul Flynn
Ann Clwyd
Geoffrey Robinson
Barry Sheerman
Jim Cunningham
Kelvin Hopkins
Frank Field
Margaret Beckett
Ronnie Campbell
Margaret Hodge
Adrian Bailey
Kevin Barron
Kate Hoey
Ann Coffey
Roger Godsiff
David Crausby
All over 70 - the by-election risk is just too great from an actuarial perspective. [This list may be wrong, DYOR]
The transformation into an army of europhile robots, similar to the Nats, will be complete once this lot have passed on.0 -
You're too easily convincedPauly said:
No, people who are old enough to remember success before the EU are able to envision life after the EU. It's harder for people like me who are younger than UK's membership of the EU to grasp that. (Although they've convinced me they're right)Roger said:
Is it coincidence that most of the prominent Brexiteers are among their number?Pauly said:The Labour Party need a mandatory retirement age for MPs. (All parties do tbf, but Labour is particularly bad)
Gerald Kaufman
Dennis Skinner
David Winnick
Paul Flynn
Ann Clwyd
Geoffrey Robinson
Barry Sheerman
Jim Cunningham
Kelvin Hopkins
Frank Field
Margaret Beckett
Ronnie Campbell
Margaret Hodge
Adrian Bailey
Kevin Barron
Kate Hoey
Ann Coffey
Roger Godsiff
David Crausby
All over 70 - the by-election risk is just too great from an actuarial perspective. [This list may be wrong, DYOR]
The transformation into an army of europhile robots, similar to the Nats, will be complete once this lot have passed on.0 -
D minus was over generous.williamglenn said:
So you're saying the amount of disruption we can threaten is more limited?HYUFD said:
Greece was in the Euro, unlike the UK, and with 25% unemployment unlike the UK's 5%williamglenn said:
The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a bold statement and one that is likely to gather majority supportwilliamglenn said:
Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Theresa May is going to tell the EU we are leaving lock stock and barrel and is calling their bluff over trade.
61% of Greeks voted to reject the terms, and they ended up signing worse terms.0 -
The Z is your grade I presume?Ishmael_Z said:
D minus was over generous.williamglenn said:
So you're saying the amount of disruption we can threaten is more limited?HYUFD said:
Greece was in the Euro, unlike the UK, and with 25% unemployment unlike the UK's 5%williamglenn said:
The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a bold statement and one that is likely to gather majority supportwilliamglenn said:
Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?Big_G_NorthWales said:It looks like Theresa May is going to tell the EU we are leaving lock stock and barrel and is calling their bluff over trade.
61% of Greeks voted to reject the terms, and they ended up signing worse terms.0 -
That's not an argument, just obfuscated ad hominem.Roger said:
You're too easily convincedPauly said:
No, people who are old enough to remember success before the EU are able to envision life after the EU. It's harder for people like me who are younger than UK's membership of the EU to grasp that. (Although they've convinced me they're right)Roger said:
Is it coincidence that most of the prominent Brexiteers are among their number?Pauly said:The Labour Party need a mandatory retirement age for MPs. (All parties do tbf, but Labour is particularly bad)
Gerald Kaufman
Dennis Skinner
David Winnick
Paul Flynn
Ann Clwyd
Geoffrey Robinson
Barry Sheerman
Jim Cunningham
Kelvin Hopkins
Frank Field
Margaret Beckett
Ronnie Campbell
Margaret Hodge
Adrian Bailey
Kevin Barron
Kate Hoey
Ann Coffey
Roger Godsiff
David Crausby
All over 70 - the by-election risk is just too great from an actuarial perspective. [This list may be wrong, DYOR]
The transformation into an army of europhile robots, similar to the Nats, will be complete once this lot have passed on.0 -
That is not a mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary result in a certain way. That is her right, of course.HYUFD said:
She became PM because 17 million voted to Leave the EU and the reason Leave got over the line was because of the desire for border control, that is her mandate and that is what she will implementSouthamObserver said:
May has no mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary yes or no vote in a certain way. So be it. But we are going to be making it more expensive and time consuming to do business in a market where 44% of our exports go.HYUFD said:
Well if the EU will not make any compromise on border control so be it, May has a mandate from the Leave vote and she will deliver on itSouthamObserver said:
Yes, they are going there already. We will not cease trading with the EU, but it will become more costly and less time efficient.HYUFD said:
So 56% of our exports now go outside the EU not forgetting of course we will not cease trading with the EU regardless of what happensSouthamObserver said:
Yep - we are removing ourselves from the market 44% of our exports go to and hoping that the damage this will do will be offset by trade agreements we can finalise with other countries who will know how desperate we are. Should be fun.chestnut said:
It sounds like leaving the EU and having a new friendlier, looser relationship with them, and most critically the 7bn people and 88% of the global economy that isn't little Europe.nunu said:"The UK cannot expect to hold on to "bits" of its membership after leaving the EU, Theresa May has said."
Damn that sounds like a very hard brexit to me.. BBC Website.
Excellent.
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There are many ways to leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:
May has no mandate - so we ignore 17 million who voted out. You may not like it but we are leavingSouthamObserver said:
May has no mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary yes or no vote in a certain way. So be it. But we are going to be making it more expensive and time consuming to do business in a market where 44% of our exports go.HYUFD said:
Well if the EU will not make any compromise on border control so be it, May has a mandate from the Leave vote and she will deliver on itSouthamObserver said:
Yes, they are going there already. We will not cease trading with the EU, but it will become more costly and less time efficient.HYUFD said:
So 56% of our exports now go outside the EU not forgetting of course we will not cease trading with the EU regardless of what happensSouthamObserver said:
Yep - we are removing ourselves from the market 44% of our exports go to and hoping that the damage this will do will be offset by trade agreements we can finalise with other countries who will know how desperate we are. Should be fun.chestnut said:
It sounds like leaving the EU and having a new friendlier, looser relationship with them, and most critically the 7bn people and 88% of the global economy that isn't little Europe.nunu said:"The UK cannot expect to hold on to "bits" of its membership after leaving the EU, Theresa May has said."
Damn that sounds like a very hard brexit to me.. BBC Website.
Excellent.
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As a group they are overwhelmingly Remainers and pretty atypical of their electorates and contemporaries.Roger said:
Is it coincidence that most of the prominent Brexiteers are among their number?Pauly said:The Labour Party need a mandatory retirement age for MPs. (All parties do tbf, but Labour is particularly bad)
Gerald Kaufman
Dennis Skinner
David Winnick
Paul Flynn
Ann Clwyd
Geoffrey Robinson
Barry Sheerman
Jim Cunningham
Kelvin Hopkins
Frank Field
Margaret Beckett
Ronnie Campbell
Margaret Hodge
Adrian Bailey
Kevin Barron
Kate Hoey
Ann Coffey
Roger Godsiff
David Crausby
All over 70 - the by-election risk is just too great from an actuarial perspective. [This list may be wrong, DYOR]
Pauly is correct that the young are particularly vulnerable to being house trained to accept no alternative to particular social and economic policies.
Age should bring insight from experience.
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Wishful thinking from a man in advertising!Roger said:
You're too easily convincedPauly said:
No, people who are old enough to remember success before the EU are able to envision life after the EU. It's harder for people like me who are younger than UK's membership of the EU to grasp that. (Although they've convinced me they're right)Roger said:
Is it coincidence that most of the prominent Brexiteers are among their number?Pauly said:The Labour Party need a mandatory retirement age for MPs. (All parties do tbf, but Labour is particularly bad)
Gerald Kaufman
Dennis Skinner
David Winnick
Paul Flynn
Ann Clwyd
Geoffrey Robinson
Barry Sheerman
Jim Cunningham
Kelvin Hopkins
Frank Field
Margaret Beckett
Ronnie Campbell
Margaret Hodge
Adrian Bailey
Kevin Barron
Kate Hoey
Ann Coffey
Roger Godsiff
David Crausby
All over 70 - the by-election risk is just too great from an actuarial perspective. [This list may be wrong, DYOR]
The transformation into an army of europhile robots, similar to the Nats, will be complete once this lot have passed on.0 -
That is her mandate, her party has a majority in parliament and that is what her voters want and that is what the country endorsed when it decided to leave the EUSouthamObserver said:
That is not a mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary result in a certain way. That is her right, of course.HYUFD said:
She became PM because 17 million voted to Leave the EU and the reason Leave got over the line was because of the desire for border control, that is her mandate and that is what she will implementSouthamObserver said:
May has no mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary yes or no vote in a certain way. So be it. But we are going to be making it more expensive and time consuming to do business in a market where 44% of our exports go.HYUFD said:
Well if the EU will not make any compromise on border control so be it, May has a mandate from the Leave vote and she will deliver on itSouthamObserver said:
Yes, they are going there already. We will not cease trading with the EU, but it will become more costly and less time efficient.HYUFD said:
So 56% of our exports now go outside the EU not forgetting of course we will not cease trading with the EU regardless of what happensSouthamObserver said:
Yep - we are removing ourselves from the market 44% of our exports go to and hoping that the damage this will do will be offset by trade agreements we can finalise with other countries who will know how desperate we are. Should be fun.chestnut said:
It sounds like leaving the EU and having a new friendlier, looser relationship with them, and most critically the 7bn people and 88% of the global economy that isn't little Europe.nunu said:"The UK cannot expect to hold on to "bits" of its membership after leaving the EU, Theresa May has said."
Damn that sounds like a very hard brexit to me.. BBC Website.
Excellent.0 -
I gather @surbiton is over 60. I'd assumed he was in his early 20s. Exceptions prove rules.chestnut said:
As a group they are overwhelmingly Remainers and pretty atypical of their electorates and contemporaries.Roger said:
Is it coincidence that most of the prominent Brexiteers are among their number?Pauly said:The Labour Party need a mandatory retirement age for MPs. (All parties do tbf, but Labour is particularly bad)
Gerald Kaufman
Dennis Skinner
David Winnick
Paul Flynn
Ann Clwyd
Geoffrey Robinson
Barry Sheerman
Jim Cunningham
Kelvin Hopkins
Frank Field
Margaret Beckett
Ronnie Campbell
Margaret Hodge
Adrian Bailey
Kevin Barron
Kate Hoey
Ann Coffey
Roger Godsiff
David Crausby
All over 70 - the by-election risk is just too great from an actuarial perspective. [This list may be wrong, DYOR]
Pauly is correct that the young are particularly vulnerable to being house trained to accept no alternative to particular social and economic policies.
Age should bring insight from experience.0 -
Any Labour Party capable of electing Corbyn is clearly capable of electing Abbott - even if she did go to the second best University in the UK0
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We cannot yet say anything about what a Trump Presidency will be. It may not even be as disruptive as his campaign. But one area where we have good reason to be able to predict is foreign policy, and I am convinced it will end up being an almost complete break with past doctrines and received wisdom. Precisely what form it will take, I can't say just yet, but I think some key assumptions will be challenged and overturned.nielh said:I dont think.you can take much out of trumps pro brexit stance in that it was primarily motivated by politics and not some new doctrine of international relations.
Britain is not a.superpower but has a lot of influence hard and soft power. Disporoportionate to its size. This is what diplomats rightly fret about. It is diminishing with brexit.
As for Britain's soft power, I would argue that, at least in term of diplomacy, the development of the EU's own foreign service did huge damage to the UK's diplomacy. Sure, the UK's door to the EU (to paraphrase the Chinese) was in the asset column, but it came at considerable costs elsewhere to Britain's soft power.0 -
May may not have the same sort of mandate as she would have had she won a general election on her own manifesto, but there are other types of mandates and the referendum result is one. Sure, it was binary, but the state of the polls indicate that the public does not dislike her interpretation of it.SouthamObserver said:
May has no mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary yes or no vote in a certain way. So be it. But we are going to be making it more expensive and time consuming to do business in a market where 44% of our exports go.HYUFD said:
Well if the EU will not make any compromise on border control so be it, May has a mandate from the Leave vote and she will deliver on itSouthamObserver said:
Yes, they are going there already. We will not cease trading with the EU, but it will become more costly and less time efficient.HYUFD said:
So 56% of our exports now go outside the EU not forgetting of course we will not cease trading with the EU regardless of what happensSouthamObserver said:
Yep - we are removing ourselves from the market 44% of our exports go to and hoping that the damage this will do will be offset by trade agreements we can finalise with other countries who will know how desperate we are. Should be fun.chestnut said:
It sounds like leaving the EU and having a new friendlier, looser relationship with them, and most critically the 7bn people and 88% of the global economy that isn't little Europe.nunu said:"The UK cannot expect to hold on to "bits" of its membership after leaving the EU, Theresa May has said."
Damn that sounds like a very hard brexit to me.. BBC Website.
Excellent.0 -
This is very uncomfortable and spot on
"Just me and my son. Safe in our nest. Away from you lot circling like vultures for scraps. Making this about you. Making this about color or a cause.
Look, I'd shout from the window, manic in my hatred. Look what you did. Look what you all did.
All of you - you pathetic people, you self-righteous liberals, you useless parents, you biased b*stards, you media pariahs, you prying fools - look what you did.
So now you are pray for me? Expecting me to believe there is a god. How dare you?
You are donating cash? What would you like me to spend it on? Money may assuage your guilt, shield you from your revulsion. But what dollar bill will make mend my son's head or heart.
Get away, the lot of you.
You broke my son.
You broke my son."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4097970/If-mother-special-needs-teen-tortured-Facebook-live-wouldn-t-want-prayers-wouldn-t-want-cash-wouldn-t-want-apologies-d-just-want-son-whole.html0 -
As for what form it takes in Europe, I suggest studying Putin's 2001 speech to the Bundestag for clues as to what he really wants. The question is to what extent the EU is able to rise to the new reality created by a US that is taking a new approach.MTimT said:
We cannot yet say anything about what a Trump Presidency will be. It may not even be as disruptive as his campaign. But one area where we have good reason to be able to predict is foreign policy, and I am convinced it will end up being an almost complete break with past doctrines and received wisdom. Precisely what form it will take, I can't say just yet, but I think some key assumptions will be challenged and overturned.nielh said:I dont think.you can take much out of trumps pro brexit stance in that it was primarily motivated by politics and not some new doctrine of international relations.
Britain is not a.superpower but has a lot of influence hard and soft power. Disporoportionate to its size. This is what diplomats rightly fret about. It is diminishing with brexit.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/213400 -
new one
0 -
Remainers keep throwing around the 44% of our exports are to the eu figure and it sounds big and scary as the implication they make is it will drop to zero.
However if memory serves don't exports as a total make up somewhere like a total of between 10 and 15 percent of our total trade with the rest being domestic?
If so that means even if it drops to zero which is highly questionable what we are really talking about is an effect on between 4.4% and 6.6% of our total trade?
Doesn't sound quite so scary to me0 -
They would have done in 2016 had Leadsom not pulled out.AlastairMeeks said:
Conservative party members have never elected a woman leader either.david_herdson said:"I can’t quite believe I placed this bet".
Nor can I. Labour would never do something like elect a woman.0 -
@williamglen @MTimT
Putin has said much over the years with a lot of substance (contrast with theresa may for instance) and his speeches are fascinating in a way. But the uk and us have actively sought to undermine his regime for a decade.or so and now there will be payback. He wants to neutralise the threat.to russia from the west to shore up his regime. This will mean weakening of nato, eu etc and the isolation/break up of the uk. In the scheme of things trump is a useful idiot and a hundred christmases in one for the russkies. Just my thoughts on the subject though.0 -
Yes but given the UK is on the other side of Europe to Russia and the Baltic states who are right next to it is the latter who need UK military support post Brexitnielh said:@williamglen @MTimT
Putin has said much over the years with a lot of substance (contrast with theresa may for instance) and his speeches are fascinating in a way. But the uk and us have actively sought to undermine his regime for a decade.or so and now there will be payback. He wants to neutralise the threat.to russia from the west to shore up his regime. This will mean weakening of nato, eu etc and the isolation/break up of the uk. In the scheme of things trump is a useful idiot and a hundred christmases in one for the russkies. Just my thoughts on the subject though.0 -
Powerful stuff. Someone speaking their unfiltered, strongest emotions with an authenticity that cuts through the crap.PlatoSaid said:This is very uncomfortable and spot on
"Just me and my son. Safe in our nest. Away from you lot circling like vultures for scraps. Making this about you. Making this about color or a cause.
Look, I'd shout from the window, manic in my hatred. Look what you did. Look what you all did.
All of you - you pathetic people, you self-righteous liberals, you useless parents, you biased b*stards, you media pariahs, you prying fools - look what you did.
So now you are pray for me? Expecting me to believe there is a god. How dare you?
You are donating cash? What would you like me to spend it on? Money may assuage your guilt, shield you from your revulsion. But what dollar bill will make mend my son's head or heart.
Get away, the lot of you.
You broke my son.
You broke my son."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4097970/If-mother-special-needs-teen-tortured-Facebook-live-wouldn-t-want-prayers-wouldn-t-want-cash-wouldn-t-want-apologies-d-just-want-son-whole.html0
