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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve backed Diane Abbott to be next Labour leader

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,690

    It looks like Theresa May is going to tell the EU we are leaving lock stock and barrel and is calling their bluff over trade.

    Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?
  • Like when Varoufakis called their bluff by threatening to bring down the European financial system? How did that turn out?
    It is a bold statement and one that is likely to gather majority support
  • HYUFD said:

    Well if the EU will not make any compromise on border control so be it, May has a mandate from the Leave vote and she will deliver on it

    May has no mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary yes or no vote in a certain way. So be it. But we are going to be making it more expensive and time consuming to do business in a market where 44% of our exports go.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,690
    chestnut said:

    Somewhere in Europe someone is saying exactly the same thing as you -but with UK replacing the EU in the sentence.
    So while for us it's all about sovereignty and control, for them it's just about the bottom line? How could it possibly go wrong?

    (I feel like I've inadvertently triggered AlsoIndigo's Brexit macro.) :(
  • May has no mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary yes or no vote in a certain way. So be it. But we are going to be making it more expensive and time consuming to do business in a market where 44% of our exports go.

    May has no mandate - so we ignore 17 million who voted out. You may not like it but we are leaving
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,690
    edited January 2017

    It is a bold statement and one that is likely to gather majority support
    The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.

    61% of Greeks voted to reject the terms, and they ended up signing worse terms.
  • The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.
    You really do need to realise that we are going out of the EU and life will continue on the other side - deal or no deal
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited January 2017

    So while for us it's all about sovereignty and control, for them it's just about the bottom line? How could it possibly go wrong?

    (I feel like I've inadvertently triggered AlsoIndigo's Brexit macro.) :(
    There is no them and us in this.

    There are politicians who answer to electorates (28 of them, not the UK and EU) and there are decision makers and shareholders in individual businesses.

    The latter will do whatever they think is right for their individual businesses and their bottom line.

    All the politicians are doing is creating the framework that those decisions will be made within. They are not making the decisions.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,444

    The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.

    61% of Greeks voted to reject the terms, and they ended up signing worse terms.
    We aren't the Greeks. Our economy is in a much better position than theirs.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited January 2017

    The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.

    61% of Greeks voted to reject the terms, and they ended up signing worse terms.

    That comparison has so many points of failure.

    D-


    (The D- is your score, not an attempt at an emoji).

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,690

    That comparison has so many points of failure.
    Threatening mutual harm in order to obtain impossible concessions? It's not as different as you think.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    HYUFD said:

    You are just taking these events at face value and not looking.at.the bigger picture. I dont think.you can take much out of trumps pro brexit stance in that it was primarily motivated by politics and not some new doctrine of international relations. Similarly I would take little.comfort in the current 45 percent support for independence in scotland nor the policy of the current argentine govt towards the falklands.
    Britain is not a.superpower but has a lot of influence hard and soft power. Disporoportionate to its size. This is what diplomats rightly fret about. It is diminishing with brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,823

    May has no mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary yes or no vote in a certain way. So be it. But we are going to be making it more expensive and time consuming to do business in a market where 44% of our exports go.

    She became PM because 17 million voted to Leave the EU and the reason Leave got over the line was because of the desire for border control, that is her mandate and that is what she will implement
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,823

    The Greeks had a referendum behind them and everything... Still it wasn't the EU that was bluffing.

    61% of Greeks voted to reject the terms, and they ended up signing worse terms.
    Greece was in the Euro, unlike the UK, and with 25% unemployment unlike the UK's 5%
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,384
    edited January 2017
    Pauly said:

    The Labour Party need a mandatory retirement age for MPs. (All parties do tbf, but Labour is particularly bad)

    Gerald Kaufman
    Dennis Skinner
    David Winnick
    Paul Flynn
    Ann Clwyd
    Geoffrey Robinson
    Barry Sheerman
    Jim Cunningham
    Kelvin Hopkins
    Frank Field
    Margaret Beckett
    Ronnie Campbell
    Margaret Hodge
    Adrian Bailey
    Kevin Barron
    Kate Hoey
    Ann Coffey
    Roger Godsiff
    David Crausby

    All over 70 - the by-election risk is just too great from an actuarial perspective. [This list may be wrong, DYOR]

    Is it coincidence that most of the prominent Brexiteers are among their number?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,690
    HYUFD said:

    Greece was in the Euro, unlike the UK, and with 25% unemployment unlike the UK's 5%
    So you're saying the amount of disruption we can threaten is more limited?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,823
    edited January 2017
    nielh said:

    Without Brexit Trump may well not have won. You can argue about comfort or not but Scotland does the vast majority of its trade with the UK not the EU and the UK only a minority of its trade with the EU and Argentina has its own domestic problems to sort out which was precisely why the current president was elected coupled with the fact the UK has a significantly larger and more effective military than the Argentines too.

    As for hard and soft power if more and more of that went to the EU then that would arguably have been a bigger threat to it than Brexit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,823

    So you're saying the amount of disruption we can threaten is more limited?
    We are not aiming to threaten disruption, we are aiming to regain control of our borders, whether the EU agrees to that and some form of trade deal is up to them but that is what we will do regardless
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited January 2017
    Roger said:

    Is it coincidence that most of the prominent Brexiteers are among their number?
    No, people who are old enough to remember success before the EU are able to envision life after the EU. It's harder for people like me who are younger than UK's membership of the EU to grasp that. (Although they've convinced me they're right)
    The transformation into an army of europhile robots, similar to the Nats, will be complete once this lot have passed on.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,384
    Pauly said:

    No, people who are old enough to remember success before the EU are able to envision life after the EU. It's harder for people like me who are younger than UK's membership of the EU to grasp that. (Although they've convinced me they're right)
    The transformation into an army of europhile robots, similar to the Nats, will be complete once this lot have passed on.
    You're too easily convinced
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    So you're saying the amount of disruption we can threaten is more limited?
    D minus was over generous.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,690
    Ishmael_Z said:

    D minus was over generous.
    The Z is your grade I presume?
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Roger said:

    You're too easily convinced
    That's not an argument, just obfuscated ad hominem.
  • HYUFD said:

    She became PM because 17 million voted to Leave the EU and the reason Leave got over the line was because of the desire for border control, that is her mandate and that is what she will implement

    That is not a mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary result in a certain way. That is her right, of course.
  • May has no mandate - so we ignore 17 million who voted out. You may not like it but we are leaving

    There are many ways to leave.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited January 2017
    Roger said:

    Is it coincidence that most of the prominent Brexiteers are among their number?
    As a group they are overwhelmingly Remainers and pretty atypical of their electorates and contemporaries.

    Pauly is correct that the young are particularly vulnerable to being house trained to accept no alternative to particular social and economic policies.

    Age should bring insight from experience.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Roger said:

    You're too easily convinced
    Wishful thinking from a man in advertising!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,823

    That is not a mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary result in a certain way. That is her right, of course.
    That is her mandate, her party has a majority in parliament and that is what her voters want and that is what the country endorsed when it decided to leave the EU
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    chestnut said:

    As a group they are overwhelmingly Remainers and pretty atypical of their electorates and contemporaries.

    Pauly is correct that the young are particularly vulnerable to being house trained to accept no alternative to particular social and economic policies.

    Age should bring insight from experience.
    I gather @surbiton is over 60. I'd assumed he was in his early 20s. Exceptions prove rules.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited January 2017
    Any Labour Party capable of electing Corbyn is clearly capable of electing Abbott - even if she did go to the second best University in the UK
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    nielh said:

    I dont think.you can take much out of trumps pro brexit stance in that it was primarily motivated by politics and not some new doctrine of international relations.

    Britain is not a.superpower but has a lot of influence hard and soft power. Disporoportionate to its size. This is what diplomats rightly fret about. It is diminishing with brexit.

    We cannot yet say anything about what a Trump Presidency will be. It may not even be as disruptive as his campaign. But one area where we have good reason to be able to predict is foreign policy, and I am convinced it will end up being an almost complete break with past doctrines and received wisdom. Precisely what form it will take, I can't say just yet, but I think some key assumptions will be challenged and overturned.

    As for Britain's soft power, I would argue that, at least in term of diplomacy, the development of the EU's own foreign service did huge damage to the UK's diplomacy. Sure, the UK's door to the EU (to paraphrase the Chinese) was in the asset column, but it came at considerable costs elsewhere to Britain's soft power.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    May has no mandate. She is choosing to interpret a binary yes or no vote in a certain way. So be it. But we are going to be making it more expensive and time consuming to do business in a market where 44% of our exports go.

    May may not have the same sort of mandate as she would have had she won a general election on her own manifesto, but there are other types of mandates and the referendum result is one. Sure, it was binary, but the state of the polls indicate that the public does not dislike her interpretation of it.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This is very uncomfortable and spot on

    "Just me and my son. Safe in our nest. Away from you lot circling like vultures for scraps. Making this about you. Making this about color or a cause.

    Look, I'd shout from the window, manic in my hatred. Look what you did. Look what you all did.

    All of you - you pathetic people, you self-righteous liberals, you useless parents, you biased b*stards, you media pariahs, you prying fools - look what you did.

    So now you are pray for me? Expecting me to believe there is a god. How dare you?

    You are donating cash? What would you like me to spend it on? Money may assuage your guilt, shield you from your revulsion. But what dollar bill will make mend my son's head or heart.

    Get away, the lot of you.

    You broke my son.

    You broke my son."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4097970/If-mother-special-needs-teen-tortured-Facebook-live-wouldn-t-want-prayers-wouldn-t-want-cash-wouldn-t-want-apologies-d-just-want-son-whole.html
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,690
    MTimT said:

    We cannot yet say anything about what a Trump Presidency will be. It may not even be as disruptive as his campaign. But one area where we have good reason to be able to predict is foreign policy, and I am convinced it will end up being an almost complete break with past doctrines and received wisdom. Precisely what form it will take, I can't say just yet, but I think some key assumptions will be challenged and overturned.
    As for what form it takes in Europe, I suggest studying Putin's 2001 speech to the Bundestag for clues as to what he really wants. The question is to what extent the EU is able to rise to the new reality created by a US that is taking a new approach.

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/21340
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    new one

  • PaganPagan Posts: 259
    Remainers keep throwing around the 44% of our exports are to the eu figure and it sounds big and scary as the implication they make is it will drop to zero.

    However if memory serves don't exports as a total make up somewhere like a total of between 10 and 15 percent of our total trade with the rest being domestic?

    If so that means even if it drops to zero which is highly questionable what we are really talking about is an effect on between 4.4% and 6.6% of our total trade?

    Doesn't sound quite so scary to me
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    Conservative party members have never elected a woman leader either.
    They would have done in 2016 had Leadsom not pulled out.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    @williamglen @MTimT
    Putin has said much over the years with a lot of substance (contrast with theresa may for instance) and his speeches are fascinating in a way. But the uk and us have actively sought to undermine his regime for a decade.or so and now there will be payback. He wants to neutralise the threat.to russia from the west to shore up his regime. This will mean weakening of nato, eu etc and the isolation/break up of the uk. In the scheme of things trump is a useful idiot and a hundred christmases in one for the russkies. Just my thoughts on the subject though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,823
    nielh said:

    @williamglen @MTimT
    Putin has said much over the years with a lot of substance (contrast with theresa may for instance) and his speeches are fascinating in a way. But the uk and us have actively sought to undermine his regime for a decade.or so and now there will be payback. He wants to neutralise the threat.to russia from the west to shore up his regime. This will mean weakening of nato, eu etc and the isolation/break up of the uk. In the scheme of things trump is a useful idiot and a hundred christmases in one for the russkies. Just my thoughts on the subject though.

    Yes but given the UK is on the other side of Europe to Russia and the Baltic states who are right next to it is the latter who need UK military support post Brexit
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    PlatoSaid said:

    This is very uncomfortable and spot on

    "Just me and my son. Safe in our nest. Away from you lot circling like vultures for scraps. Making this about you. Making this about color or a cause.

    Look, I'd shout from the window, manic in my hatred. Look what you did. Look what you all did.

    All of you - you pathetic people, you self-righteous liberals, you useless parents, you biased b*stards, you media pariahs, you prying fools - look what you did.

    So now you are pray for me? Expecting me to believe there is a god. How dare you?

    You are donating cash? What would you like me to spend it on? Money may assuage your guilt, shield you from your revulsion. But what dollar bill will make mend my son's head or heart.

    Get away, the lot of you.

    You broke my son.

    You broke my son."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4097970/If-mother-special-needs-teen-tortured-Facebook-live-wouldn-t-want-prayers-wouldn-t-want-cash-wouldn-t-want-apologies-d-just-want-son-whole.html

    Powerful stuff. Someone speaking their unfiltered, strongest emotions with an authenticity that cuts through the crap.
This discussion has been closed.