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As we approach 2017, Keiran Pedley reviews the winners and losers of the past year and breaks down the 2016 PB/Polling Matters survey results.
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Now, how about that quote button?
Here's a BBC article on the celebrity deaths, showing that 2016 has seen a continued increase in deaths.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-38329740
One thing I note though (unless I'm being thick): fewer celebrities are dying in the last nine months of the year, than you would expect from the number who died in the first three months.
As an example, according to the BBC five celebrities died in January to March 2012. If that rate had continued for the next three quarters, you would expect fifteen more to have died. Instead there was just nine.
The same hold true for 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Am I missing something (the plot perhaps)?
More people die during the winter months than in summer. But I'm not sure the difference is this marked.
Can anyone think of an explanation for why this might be? Or are the first three months of the year really more dangerous for celebrities ...
Many thanks to OGH and all at PB for keeping the show on the road. Cheers!
(But I'm surprised @AndyJS didn't make POTY double figures; I was expecting his EU referendum night spreadsheet to guarantee him an honourable mention at least. Just as well I don't bet, obviously.)
For those unfamiliar with great Aussie TV, Rake is superb
IIRC it's now on Netflix
https://youtu.be/Q38RjSOTim4
I really hope the murder of Jo Cox doesn't change MP's accessability.
Obama made a fool of himself.
I do not fear 2017 personally. I have taken a new job on almost double my last salary, my two-year-old daughter is bright, healthy and happy, and things going well we will buy a new family home in the spring and get some space after being cooped up in a two bed apartment in central London.
I am one of the lucky ones.
More broadly though, I expect to continue witnessing the slow retreat of Western liberal democracy.
It's been my privilege (age 38) to see the fall of the Berlin Wall, the crushing of Communist dictatorship, the rise of the Internet and the rapid decrease in global poverty wrought by globalisation.
But liberal democracy looks to have worn itself out.
The Iraq War was a political disillusionment; the global financial crisis the economic one. "Hard men" everywhere (Hungary, Poland, India, Russia, Turkey, China) are on the ascendant and the West no longer has the economic clout to influence (or ignore) it.
Trump is the icing on the cake. Evidence that the US system (if not our own) is rotten to the core. If he is not a true fascist, he at least happy to talk like one and there are no shortage of demented cat lovers who have convinced themselves that a dose of anti-freedom (for that is what illiberalism means) is a necessary corrective to an NYT editorial line they don't agree with.
Trump will accelerate the US's geopolitical decline, although it may take years for this to become certain. The Russia rapprochement makes sense, not as an alliance against Islamofascism -- which is frankly a minor irritant in the grand scheme of things -- but as a backdrop to a policy of confrontation with China. I cannot see it ending well.
Like Sean F I take comfort from the fact that Brexit was above all a democratic process, even if I profoundly disagree with the decision.
We still hold democracy in high esteem in this country, or say we do. But how will we protect it as the world grows increasingly hostile to our values?
"How on earth did @AndyJS not win poster of the year?"
Doesn't post enough? Well done Mike and TSB. No doubt among the most entertaining posts of last year
Pastor of the year? Father Jack.
Imposter of the year? 619
For me personally, it's been very poor. I've seen the inside of A&E and hospitals more than I'd like, for myself, friends and family.
Yet despite this, and without tempting fate for the remaining four-and-a-half hours, we've all survived, and I think it's the first year in over ten that I haven't had a funeral to go to.
Perhaps because none of us are celebrities ...
Yes you're right! I can't imagine why not. Maybe not enough gamblers voted?
What you describe as "nanny statism" (a very conservative term) is in fact basic governance - helping people to make the best of their lives. Reducing sugar intake and alcohol and tobacco consumption isn't being nanny statist - not only does it encourage individuals to live better but it saves society the cost of having to deal with the remedial treatment of those suffering the medical impacts of diabetes, alcoholism and other medical conditions directly linked to diet and lifestyle.
Yes, people have the right to drink themselves to death or eat whatever they like but there's no reason why society should make it easy. Telling people the consequences of possible actions isn't "nanny state" - it's education - or would you prefer people died or suffered in ignorance ?
"yes lets remember how vitriolic the E.U "debate" was. I completly disagreed with Jo Cox on many issues and it was disgusted in the way some in the REMAIN campaign tried to use her murder to win over voters".
I think she more than anyone showed how divisive the vote was going to be and following her husband's lead she became a clear symbol of the choice between a country at peace with itself and a xenophobic one represented by her killer
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/31/queen-may-attend-church-new-years-day-decision-expected-sunday/
For Britain, things probably will deteriorate for a few years yet. By the time it turns the corner, it might even no longer exist in its current form as a single state.
Happy New Year all.
So change, but positive change. Except that I'm surrounded by bloody Tykes!
The problem comes when you face a choice between authoritarian rule and chaotic democracy, or the type of democracy in which the winners set out to persecute the losers. In those cases, authoritarian rule may be preferable.
Happy New Year to everyone.
The Economist has maintained a democracy index since 2006. It's one measure, only, but it suggests a general stagnation since 2010 and a reduction in the number of "full democracies" which it numbers at only 20 now globally.
Happy New Year to you all. Hopefully, we'll meet again on the other side. As ever on New Year's Eve - the worst day of the year - I'll be tucked up well before midnight.
I am afraid your world view has blinded you to the fact that your particular notion of liberalism and democracy are not as widely held as you might think. That does not mean that either liberalism or democracy are under threat, simply that other opinions on what they mean for how we are governed are currently in the ascendant.
Plus ca change plus c'est la meme chose.
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-alt-right-terminology-20161115-story.html
The only real consolation from my perspective is that it is interesting to live through history.
Its Nye and fireworks going off (Scandinavians), on childcare duty first thing tomorrow so early night.
I wonder what the Western European capitals will do at 23:00 GMT? No doubt BBC News will be showing us.
It would be news if they didn't have fecking fireworks.
OK - I'm calm again.
I do think the basic tenets of Government as I understand them - the administration of law, the protection of the public and the maintenance of public health and order - are as relevant as they have always been. My personal hope is 2016 has marked the failure of centralisation whether nationally or pan-nationally.
I'd like to think the return of governance and authority to govern to local and national levels - call it devolution or decentralisation if you like - will be the big beneficiary of 2016. So much of the anger from which populists derive their power derives from the sens of not being represented or being ignored.
Returning real power and decision making to both national governments and to local communities would do so much to restore our democracy and the democratic process.
In Cantorian terms, any transfinite number plus a finite number equals the original transfinite number.
There are indeed operations which can change one infinity into a greater one (one transfinite number to another) but addition doesn't do the trick.
Although this may in fact be the most pedantic intervention ever on pb.com...
I think he's done pretty well. Generally the US is best left to get on with things, with the President performing as a catalyst sometimes. It remains to be seen whether by electing Trump the US have derailed themselves. I suspect and hope he will find himself to be an execrable force against an immovable object. That, at least the image I see when he adopts his serious gimlet-eyed "don't mess with me" look. I'll forbear putting that more strongly.
In the human history of focused egoism Putin might be said to be successful czaristically speaking.
OK. But Russia is in a pretty dire state. What may be propping them up is their oil and gas exports, with the positive aspect, hopefully, that nations that trade together accommodate each other. Finger crossed.
Liberal democracy in the West is functioning as it should, by giving people the chance to peacefully reject changes that they dislike. People don't have to resort to revolutions or dictatorships.
Trump winning was a total shock to me.
It is the retreat of these fundamentals that concerns me. Not necessarily in this country, but in the increasingly connected world we and our children inhabit.
Happy New Year all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Uo0JAUWijM
Very best wishes to Mike Smithson and all PBers for the New Year.
Few put as much effort in yet shared so widely. I will buy him drinks all night if I run across him at a PB drinkies.
2016 has been a pretty good year for me personally, albeit depressing politically with the forces of reaction and intolerance in the ascendant.
Will this happen probably not.
Or is that just me?
But AndyJS deserves it for that spreadsheet.
Companies with more than 50 workers will be obliged to draw up a charter of good conduct, setting out the hours when staff are not supposed to send or answer emails.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38479439
https://judithknott.wordpress.com/2016/12/31/happy-new-year-from-angela-merkel
January: Kidsgrove to Manchester Piccadilly, Overton to Salisbury, Ashford to Eastbourne, Manningtree to Harwich
February: Nottingham to Hucknall (NET tram), Alderley Edge to Cheadle Hulme, Manchester Piccadilly to Ashton (Manchester Metrolink), Chester to Liverpool via Birkenhead, Newhaven Harbour to Seaford
March: Ford to Bognor Regis, Polegate to Eastbourne, Crowhurst to St Leonards, Petersfield to Portsmouth, Portsmouth to Eastleigh, Derby to Matlock, Matlock to Rowsley South (Peak Rail)
April: Faversham to Dover, Ely to Kings Lynn, Liverpool to Southport, Thorpe-le-Soken to Walton-on-Naze
May: Ely to Norwich, Cambridge to Stowmarket, Stockport to Buxton, Barnham to Havant, Bedhampton to Cosham, Fareham to St Denys (Southampton), Island Line (Ryde to Shanklin, Isle of Wight), Bull Street to New Street (Midland Metro)
June: Ipswich to Lowestoft, Nottingham to Chesterfield, Nottingham to Clifton South (NET), Nottingham to Toton Lane (NET), David Lane to Phoenix Park (NET), Peterborough to Lincoln, Ramsgate to Dover
(part 1 of 2
(part 2 of 2
July: Gloucester to Newport (Wales), Liverpool to Wigan North Western, Southampton to Weymouth, Nottingham to Lincoln, Grantham to Skegness, Gobowen to Chester, Norwich to Great Yarmouth (via Acle), Great Yarmouth to Norwich (via Berney Arms), Sileby to Melton Mowbray, Ipswich to Felixstowe
August: Nottingham to Worksop, Salisbury to Westbury, Winsford to Manchester Airport, Manchester Airport to Piccadilly, Eastleigh to Salisbury, Norwich to Sheringham, Manchester Piccadilly to Leeds (via Huddersfield), Guide Bridge to Hadfield (via Glossop), Hadfield to Dinting (direct)
September: Piccadilly to Bury (Manchester Metrolink), Salisbury to Exeter St. Davids (via Yeovil), Sheffield Station to Halfway (Supertram), Gleadless Townend to Herdings Park (Supertram), Brockenhurst to Lymington Pier, Birkenhead Hamilton Square to West Kirby, Birkenhead North to New Brighton, Reedham (Norfolk) to Lowestoft, Ely to Kennett, Wigan North Western to Preston
October: Pewsey to Newton Abbot (avoiding Westbury and Frome, and via Exeter St Davids), Stockport to Chester (via Altrincham), Redbridge (Hants.) to Romsey, Sheffield to Doncaster (avoiding Rotherham), Chippenham to Trowbridge, Manchester Piccadilly to Liverpool (via Warrington Central), Huyton to Manchester Deansgate (via Newton-le-Willows), Castle Cary to Yeovil Junction (via Pen Mill), Bruton to Frome, Hooton to Ellesmere Port, Ellesmere Port to Helsby, Bristol to Taunton (avoiding Weston-super-Mare), Langley Green to Smethwick Rolfe Street (rare track - engineering diversion!)
November: Hazel Grove to Sheffield, Sandhills (Liverpool) to Ormskirk, Worle to Highbridge and Burnham (via Weston-super-Mare), Sheffield University to Malin Bridge (Supertram), Hillsborough to Middlewood (Supertram), Fitzalan Square to Meadowhall (Supertram), Piccadilly Gardens to Altrincham (Metrolink), Cornbrook to Eccles (Metrolink), Harbour City to Media City (Metrolink).
December: Liverpool Central to Hunts Cross, Kirkdale to Kirkby, Warrington Bank Quay to St Helens Junction, Manchester Airport to Trafford Bar (Metrolink), St Werburgh's Road to East Didsbury (Metrolink), Colchester Town to Hythe, Meadowhall to Swinton (via Rotherham), Oxford Parkway to Oxford, Exchange Square to Rochdale Town Centre (Metrolink), St Peter's Square to Market Street (Metrolink).
of our country .
There had to be one...
Man in Hampshire claimed to be 17, but was assessed as being 29 by officials
Official age assessments were carried out by social workers across the country
Almost one in four of the claimants were found to be older than they claimed
In some areas every claimant turned out to be over 18
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4078702/Those-man-child-migrants-old-29-Hundreds-adult-asylum-seekers-lied-age-order-enter-Britain.html
I am sure Gary Lineker will be shortly tw@ttering again about how racist the Daily Mail plus anybody who questions the real age of child migrants is...
The number of times the Charity Commission has shared concerns about links between charities and extremism with police and other agencies has nearly trebled from 234 to 630 in just three years
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/31/charities-linked-terrorism-record-high-extremists-pose-deadly/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/31/need-charities-tax-win-back-public-trust-says-charity-commission/
I am sure people putting a £10 in a collection tin will love to hear that!
I'm sorry to take so long to respond to your response to my response to your economic forecasts.
My assumption for 2017 is that nominal income growth in 2017 will broadly match that of 2015 and 2014. Your contention that income has held up is simply not true. In 3Q16, income fell at a 0.6% annual rate. Now, this is a real number, so the nominal number will still have been comfortably positive, but I really don't see any reason why we should expect nominal UK income growth to accelerate next year. If you believe that we'll have inflation of 2.5%, then to get 2.2% real GDP growth (assuming that consumption and investment move in lock step), then you need 4.7% nominal income growth. I think that is unrealistic.
More likely, we'll see we nominal income growth remaining roughly in lock step with previous years. Export contribution should improve as the Eurozone continues its modest economic recovery, and as the US pursues expansionary fiscal policies (although the US impact is likely to be bigger in 2018 than 2017), but gross capital formation (investment) is likely to be weak next year, simply because lots of firms are deferring capital investment decisions until the shape of Brexit is known.
I'm not forecasting disaster, by any means, merely that nominal income growth remains at the level of the last few years, while inflation eats away at purchasing power somewhat. Assuming 2.5% to 3% inflation and 4% nominal income growth, with a small positive impact from exports, and a small negative from gross capital formation, and you end up with UK GDP growth of 1% or maybe a little less.
Melissa Kidd, who is (to my mind) the best economist in Europe, recently revised down her expectations for the UK. (She's now forecasting a technical recession.) She was probably the only serious economist who was previously sanguine on the UK and Brexit. I think all of us would be foolish to ignore her.
Don't forget me!
(Goes back to his Lego)
I'm assuming your username reflects your belief that the best thing that could happen to London is that it burnt to the ground.
Get a grip !
It depends on what you mean by "plus". "Infinity" is not a number. You can't use arithmetic on things that aren't numbers. So if by "plus" you mean "add" then "infinity plus x" is meaningless: it's like saying "cake plus x"
As you have noted ("...Cantorian terms...") there are ways of handling infinities. But arithmetic is not one of them
Happy New Year to you all.
Gotta go. Laters.
All the rest were wrong.