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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With 2016 drawing to a close the PB/Polling Matters poll of the year

As we approach 2017, Keiran Pedley reviews the winners and losers of the past year and breaks down the 2016 PB/Polling Matters survey results.

Read the full story here

RobD

Happy new year everyone! Thanks to OGH and the gang for keeping the ship afloat.

Now, how about that quote button?

Sean_F

The biggest winner, IMHO, is Vladimir Putin, who finishes the year riding high.

matt

Sean_F said:

The biggest winner, IMHO, is Vladimir Putin, who finishes the year riding high.

Yes. Shame the Russian economy is in catastrophic shape.

JosiasJessop

Off-topic:

Here's a BBC article on the celebrity deaths, showing that 2016 has seen a continued increase in deaths.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-38329740

One thing I note though (unless I'm being thick): fewer celebrities are dying in the last nine months of the year, than you would expect from the number who died in the first three months.

As an example, according to the BBC five celebrities died in January to March 2012. If that rate had continued for the next three quarters, you would expect fifteen more to have died. Instead there was just nine.

The same hold true for 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Am I missing something (the plot perhaps)?

More people die during the winter months than in summer. But I'm not sure the difference is this marked.

Can anyone think of an explanation for why this might be? Or are the first three months of the year really more dangerous for celebrities ...

AnneJGP

Good evening, everyone, and a Happy New Year where applicable, to those in earlier time-zones.

Many thanks to OGH and all at PB for keeping the show on the road. Cheers!

(But I'm surprised @AndyJS didn't make POTY double figures; I was expecting his EU referendum night spreadsheet to guarantee him an honourable mention at least. Just as well I don't bet, obviously.)

Sean_F

FPT, Stodge I'd add that in many ways, liberalism is our common political heritage, in that governments that lose elections/referenda accept that the winners take power/abide by the outcome, rather than resorting to force to frustrate it. Equally, losers may intensely dislike the government of the day, but can trust that they won't be persecuted. Achieving this was a long and arduous process.

AnneJGP

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

Here's a BBC article on the celebrity deaths, showing that 2016 has seen a continued increase in deaths.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-38329740

One thing I note though (unless I'm being thick): fewer celebrities are dying in the last nine months of the year, than you would expect from the number who died in the first three months.

As an example, according to the BBC five celebrities died in January to March 2012. If that rate had continued for the next three quarters, you would expect fifteen more to have died. Instead there was just nine.

The same hold true for 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Am I missing something (the plot perhaps)?

More people die during the winter months than in summer. But I'm not sure the difference is this marked.

Can anyone think of an explanation for why this might be? Or are the first three months of the year really more dangerous for celebrities ...

Following on from the pantomime season in draughty theatres?

PlatoSaid

My talent for ending a thread remains strong.

For those unfamiliar with great Aussie TV, Rake is superb

IIRC it's now on Netflix

https://youtu.be/Q38RjSOTim4

SandyRentool

Would TSE have won under AV?

RobD

AnneJGP said:

Good evening, everyone, and a Happy New Year where applicable, to those in earlier time-zones.

Many thanks to OGH and all at PB for keeping the show on the road. Cheers!

(But I'm surprised @AndyJS didn't make POTY double figures; I was expecting his EU referendum night spreadsheet to guarantee him an honourable mention at least. Just as well I don't bet, obviously.)

His post with the link to the spreadsheet would certainly be in contention for post of the year!

AlsoIndigo

I am rather amused by all the (millennial) huffing and puffing to the effect that 2016 is the "worst year ever". I am sure quite a lot of years in the last century would rank substantially worse, never mind taking a longer historical perspective. The 30 million that died in the Great Chinese Famine in 1960 must be a good starter for 10.

nunu

yes lets remember how vitriolic the E.U "debate" was. I completly disagreed with Jo Cox on many issues and it was disgusted in the way some in the REMAIN campaign tried to use her murder to win over voters.

I really hope the murder of Jo Cox doesn't change MP's accessability.

PlatoSaid

Sean_F said:

The biggest winner, IMHO, is Vladimir Putin, who finishes the year riding high.

He's a master chess player like so many Russians. Thinking a dozen moves ahead whilst his opponents chase headlines or immediate responses.

Obama made a fool of himself.

isam

How on earth did @AndyJS not win poster of the year?

AlsoIndigo

Sean_F said:

FPT, Stodge I'd add that in many ways, liberalism is our common political heritage, in that governments that lose elections/referenda accept that the winners take power/abide by the outcome, rather than resorting to force to frustrate it. Equally, losers may intensely dislike the government of the day, but can trust that they won't be persecuted. Achieving this was a long and arduous process.

Liberalism is in pretty short supply to be honest, the core of liberalism must be that the state should generally not impede the lifestyle freedom of individuals, and yet Liberal Democrats and so called Liberal Conservatives are some of the worst nanny statists you can imagine - sugar tax, minimum alcohol pricing, plain packaging, endless interest in what people can see on their TVs or online, and what they can do in their bedrooms.

Gardenwalker

FPT

I do not fear 2017 personally. I have taken a new job on almost double my last salary, my two-year-old daughter is bright, healthy and happy, and things going well we will buy a new family home in the spring and get some space after being cooped up in a two bed apartment in central London.

I am one of the lucky ones.

More broadly though, I expect to continue witnessing the slow retreat of Western liberal democracy.

It's been my privilege (age 38) to see the fall of the Berlin Wall, the crushing of Communist dictatorship, the rise of the Internet and the rapid decrease in global poverty wrought by globalisation.

But liberal democracy looks to have worn itself out.

The Iraq War was a political disillusionment; the global financial crisis the economic one. "Hard men" everywhere (Hungary, Poland, India, Russia, Turkey, China) are on the ascendant and the West no longer has the economic clout to influence (or ignore) it.

Trump is the icing on the cake. Evidence that the US system (if not our own) is rotten to the core. If he is not a true fascist, he at least happy to talk like one and there are no shortage of demented cat lovers who have convinced themselves that a dose of anti-freedom (for that is what illiberalism means) is a necessary corrective to an NYT editorial line they don't agree with.

Trump will accelerate the US's geopolitical decline, although it may take years for this to become certain. The Russia rapprochement makes sense, not as an alliance against Islamofascism -- which is frankly a minor irritant in the grand scheme of things -- but as a backdrop to a policy of confrontation with China. I cannot see it ending well.

Like Sean F I take comfort from the fact that Brexit was above all a democratic process, even if I profoundly disagree with the decision.
We still hold democracy in high esteem in this country, or say we do. But how will we protect it as the world grows increasingly hostile to our values?

AlastairMeeks

AnneJGP said:

Good evening, everyone, and a Happy New Year where applicable, to those in earlier time-zones.

Many thanks to OGH and all at PB for keeping the show on the road. Cheers!

(But I'm surprised @AndyJS didn't make POTY double figures; I was expecting his EU referendum night spreadsheet to guarantee him an honourable mention at least. Just as well I don't bet, obviously.)

@AndyJS should have won by a landslide.

Roger

Isam

"How on earth did @AndyJS not win poster of the year?"

Doesn't post enough? Well done Mike and TSB. No doubt among the most entertaining posts of last year

isam

Roger said:

Isam

"How on earth did @AndyJS not win poster of the year?"

Doesn't post enough. Well done Mike and TSB. No doubt the most entertaining posts of last year

Just the 17.5 thousand posts plus making everyone an absolute fortune!

SandyRentool

Poster of the year? The one unveiled by Farage that caused so much outrage.

Pastor of the year? Father Jack.

Imposter of the year? 619

JosiasJessop

AlsoIndigo said:

I am rather amused by all the (millennial) huffing and puffing to the effect that 2016 is the "worst year ever". I am sure quite a lot of years in the last century would rank substantially worse, never mind taking a longer historical perspective. The 30 million that died in the Great Chinese Famine in 1960 must be a good starter for 10.

It's ridiculous to say that 2016 is the worst year ever for the world.

For me personally, it's been very poor. I've seen the inside of A&E and hospitals more than I'd like, for myself, friends and family.

Yet despite this, and without tempting fate for the remaining four-and-a-half hours, we've all survived, and I think it's the first year in over ten that I haven't had a funeral to go to.

Perhaps because none of us are celebrities ...

Roger

Isam.

Yes you're right! I can't imagine why not. Maybe not enough gamblers voted?

FrancisUrquhart

isam said:

How on earth did @AndyJS not win poster of the year?

He was POTY in the Urquhart household by a country mile....paid for the 1995 Bollinger on Xmas day and many other treats.

stodge

AlsoIndigo said:

Liberalism is in pretty short supply to be honest, the core of liberalism must be that the state should generally not impede the lifestyle freedom of individuals, and yet Liberal Democrats and so called Liberal Conservatives are some of the worst nanny statists you can imagine - sugar tax, minimum alcohol pricing, plain packaging, endless interest in what people can see on their TVs or online, and what they can do in their bedrooms.

Liberalism isn't just about "impeding the lifestyle freedom of individuals" - that's libertarianism (I think). Liberalism is about education and using that to enable people to make sensible lifestyle choices but it's also about a general sense of "the public good" - promoting individual and public health as an example so illnesses don't spread through the population.

What you describe as "nanny statism" (a very conservative term) is in fact basic governance - helping people to make the best of their lives. Reducing sugar intake and alcohol and tobacco consumption isn't being nanny statist - not only does it encourage individuals to live better but it saves society the cost of having to deal with the remedial treatment of those suffering the medical impacts of diabetes, alcoholism and other medical conditions directly linked to diet and lifestyle.

Yes, people have the right to drink themselves to death or eat whatever they like but there's no reason why society should make it easy. Telling people the consequences of possible actions isn't "nanny state" - it's education - or would you prefer people died or suffered in ignorance ?

1666

The demographics suggest that the so called Islamic wave will overwhelm Western society

maaarsh

FPT - RCS - your 1% annual growth forecast seems almost unbelievably low - we'd need to average 0.1% growth in the quarterly numbers to hit that annual number given the H2 numbers this year.

Roger

Nunu

"yes lets remember how vitriolic the E.U "debate" was. I completly disagreed with Jo Cox on many issues and it was disgusted in the way some in the REMAIN campaign tried to use her murder to win over voters".

I think she more than anyone showed how divisive the vote was going to be and following her husband's lead she became a clear symbol of the choice between a country at peace with itself and a xenophobic one represented by her killer

FrancisUrquhart

I am not a massive royalist, but oi Grim Reaper you have already taken enough people this year...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/31/queen-may-attend-church-new-years-day-decision-expected-sunday/

AlastairMeeks

Like @JosiasJessop, 2016 has been a terrible year for me on a personal level but we're still standing. Onwards to 2017, which I hope will be better for me on a personal level. Fingers crossed.

For Britain, things probably will deteriorate for a few years yet. By the time it turns the corner, it might even no longer exist in its current form as a single state.

Happy New Year all.

SandyRentool

2016 has been a year of change for me. During the Christmas break last year we decided that we wanted to move closer to my inlaws. I was able to move to a different office, we put our house on the market and had a buyer within a week and bought a new house here in the rural West Riding.

So change, but positive change. Except that I'm surrounded by bloody Tykes!

Sean_F

@Gardenwalker, it would be hard to argue that non-democratic States are better places to live in than the types of democracy that prevail in most of Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, Israel, Taiwan, and much of South America.

The problem comes when you face a choice between authoritarian rule and chaotic democracy, or the type of democracy in which the winners set out to persecute the losers. In those cases, authoritarian rule may be preferable.

Roger

From my point of view the worst year for politics ever. The Thatcher Reagan heyday was the only other one that came close. '84 or '85 I think?

DecrepitJohnL

Two old dependables for the punters on pb: AndyJS's spreadsheets and Roger's Oscars preview.

isam

Roger said:

Isam.

Yes you're right! I can't imagine why not. Maybe not enough gamblers voted?

Maybe so.

Happy New Year to everyone.

SandyRentool

@Roger - Worst year ever? We sent Cam and Ozzy packing - sounds like a good year to me.

Gardenwalker

Sean_F said:

@Gardenwalker, it would be hard to argue that non-democratic States are better places to live in than the types of democracy that prevail in most of Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, Israel, Taiwan, and much of South America.

The problem comes when you face a choice between authoritarian rule and chaotic democracy, or the type of democracy in which the winners set out to persecute the losers. In those cases, authoritarian rule may be preferable.

Of course. It is naive to think otherwise.

The Economist has maintained a democracy index since 2006. It's one measure, only, but it suggests a general stagnation since 2010 and a reduction in the number of "full democracies" which it numbers at only 20 now globally.

SouthamObserver

It's been a fascinating year. Very little of what happened surprised me; most of what happened I expected. Next year is much harder to read. Promises and expectations have to start to be delivered on. The liberal elite and the left are emasculated, it's the right's game. We'll begin to see what it's actually made of and whether it can move beyond slogans to deliver positive change. Politically, I expect to remain a minority within a minority. That will really annoy me on occasions. Most of the time it won't.

Happy New Year to you all. Hopefully, we'll meet again on the other side. As ever on New Year's Eve - the worst day of the year - I'll be tucked up well before midnight.

Richard_Tyndall

Gardenwalker said:

I do not fear 2017 personally. I have taken a new job on almost double my last salary, my two-year-old daughter is bright, healthy and happy, and things going well we will buy a new family home in the spring and get some space after being cooped up in a two bed apartment in central London.

I am one of the lucky ones.

More broadly though, I expect to continue witnessing the slow retreat of Western liberal democracy.

It's been my privilege (age 38) to see the fall of the Berlin Wall, the crushing of Communist dictatorship, the rise of the Internet and the rapid decrease in global poverty wrought by globalisation.

But liberal democracy looks to have worn itself out.

The Iraq War was a political disillusionment; the global financial crisis the economic one. "Hard men" everywhere (Hungary, Poland, India, Russia, Turkey, China) are on the ascendant and the West no longer has the economic clout to influence (or ignore) it.

Trump is the icing on the cake. Evidence that the US system (if not our own) is rotten to the core. If he is not a true fascist, he at least happy to talk like one and there are no shortage of demented cat lovers who have convinced themselves that a dose of anti-freedom (for that is what illiberalism means) is a necessary corrective to an NYT editorial line they don't agree with.

Trump will accelerate the US's geopolitical decline, although it may take years for this to become certain. The Russia rapprochement makes sense, not as an alliance against Islamofascism -- which is frankly a minor irritant in the grand scheme of things -- but as a backdrop to a policy of confrontation with China. I cannot see it ending well.

Like Sean F I take comfort from the fact that Brexit was above all a democratic process, even if I profoundly disagree with the decision.
We still hold democracy in high esteem in this country, or say we do. But how will we protect it as the world grows increasingly hostile to our values?

I certainly don't believe that Liberal Democracy has either worn itself out nor has found itself in retreat. What I believe has happened over the past few years is that those who believed that Liberal Democracy meant a left wing, soft socialist agenda would always win out have been roundly disabused of that notion - and that is no bad thing.

I am afraid your world view has blinded you to the fact that your particular notion of liberalism and democracy are not as widely held as you might think. That does not mean that either liberalism or democracy are under threat, simply that other opinions on what they mean for how we are governed are currently in the ascendant.

Plus ca change plus c'est la meme chose.

Goupillon

In 2016 the word "post-truth" and "alt-right" got into the OED - the following link to the LA Times also lists some other words which are being used by the Trump enthusiasts which I sad to say could get into the OED in 2017 as well.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-alt-right-terminology-20161115-story.html

nielh

@gardenwalker for me personally things are ok but looking at the state of the world im pretty terrified right now. The evolution of killer robots is probably the most worrying thing for me alongside a nuclear war. The inability of nations to manage or acknowledge existential threats is a massive problem. In short every unfolding event seems to point to things getting worse and not better. I'm just not sure you can seperate personal life from the state of the world more broadly the way you appear to.
The only real consolation from my perspective is that it is interesting to live through history.
Its Nye and fireworks going off (Scandinavians), on childcare duty first thing tomorrow so early night.

SandyRentool

This New Year news coverage does my head in every year. Auckland - fireworks. Sydney - fireworks. Hong Kong - fireworks. Now we've just had Dubai - fireworks. Next up will be Moscow - fireworks.

I wonder what the Western European capitals will do at 23:00 GMT? No doubt BBC News will be showing us.

It would be news if they didn't have fecking fireworks.

OK - I'm calm again.

stodge

Richard_Tyndall said:

I certainly don't believe that Liberal Democracy has either worn itself out nor has found itself in retreat. What I believe has happened over the past few years is that those who believed that Liberal Democracy meant a left wing, soft socialist agenda would always win out have been roundly disabused of that notion - and that is no bad thing.

I am afraid your world view has blinded you to the fact that your particular notion of liberalism and democracy are not as widely held as you might think. That does not mean that either liberalism or democracy are under threat, simply that other opinions on what they mean for how we are governed are currently in the ascendant.

Plus ca change plus c'est la meme chose.

As a liberal and a democrat I don't disagree with much of what you say. The problem is "liberal" and "democratic" seem to mean different things to different people.

I do think the basic tenets of Government as I understand them - the administration of law, the protection of the public and the maintenance of public health and order - are as relevant as they have always been. My personal hope is 2016 has marked the failure of centralisation whether nationally or pan-nationally.

I'd like to think the return of governance and authority to govern to local and national levels - call it devolution or decentralisation if you like - will be the big beneficiary of 2016. So much of the anger from which populists derive their power derives from the sens of not being represented or being ignored.

Returning real power and decision making to both national governments and to local communities would do so much to restore our democracy and the democratic process.

RobD

SandyRentool said:

This New Year news coverage does my head in every year. Auckland - fireworks. Sydney - fireworks. Hong Kong - fireworks. Now we've just had Dubai - fireworks. Next up will be Moscow - fireworks.

I wonder what the Western European capitals will do at 23:00 GMT? No doubt BBC News will be showing us.

It would be news if they didn't have fecking fireworks.

OK - I'm calm again.

Look on the bright side.. at least fireworks are all that is happening.

Andy_Cooke

FPT

MTimT said:

@ Mr Herdson "As an aside, infinity plus x is the same as infinity"

May I suggest some reading:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/strange-but-true-infinity-comes-in-different-sizes/

A pedant writes: infinity plus x does in fact always equal infinity (ie the same infinity to which the x is added).
In Cantorian terms, any transfinite number plus a finite number equals the original transfinite number.
There are indeed operations which can change one infinity into a greater one (one transfinite number to another) but addition doesn't do the trick.

Although this may in fact be the most pedantic intervention ever on pb.com...

Toms

PlatoSaid said:

Sean_F said:

The biggest winner, IMHO, is Vladimir Putin, who finishes the year riding high.

He's a master chess player like so many Russians. Thinking a dozen moves ahead whilst his opponents chase headlines or immediate responses.

Obama made a fool of himself.

You have never liked Obama, so nothing new there.

I think he's done pretty well. Generally the US is best left to get on with things, with the President performing as a catalyst sometimes. It remains to be seen whether by electing Trump the US have derailed themselves. I suspect and hope he will find himself to be an execrable force against an immovable object. That, at least the image I see when he adopts his serious gimlet-eyed "don't mess with me" look. I'll forbear putting that more strongly.

In the human history of focused egoism Putin might be said to be successful czaristically speaking.

OK. But Russia is in a pretty dire state. What may be propping them up is their oil and gas exports, with the positive aspect, hopefully, that nations that trade together accommodate each other. Finger crossed.

SandyRentool

@RobD - a bit too early to say that. If the terrorists do strike I would expect it to be at midnight.

peter_from_putney

SandyRentool said:

@Roger - Worst year ever? We sent Cam and Ozzy packing - sounds like a good year to me.

True enough, but you're still saddled with Corbyn, an infinitely greater millstone in terms of you Labourites calling the shots in the foreseeable future.

Sean_F

@Richard Tyndall,

Liberal democracy in the West is functioning as it should, by giving people the chance to peacefully reject changes that they dislike. People don't have to resort to revolutions or dictatorships.

Alistair

While I thought Britain would vote Remain I did not bet on it and was not shocked by the Leave vote.

Trump winning was a total shock to me.

AnneJGP

Andy_Cooke said:

FPT

MTimT said:

@ Mr Herdson "As an aside, infinity plus x is the same as infinity"

May I suggest some reading:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/strange-but-true-infinity-comes-in-different-sizes/

A pedant writes: infinity plus x does in fact always equal infinity (ie the same infinity to which the x is added).
In Cantorian terms, any transfinite number plus a finite number equals the original transfinite number.
There are indeed operations which can change one infinity into a greater one (one transfinite number to another) but addition doesn't do the trick.

Although this may in fact be the most pedantic intervention ever on pb.com...

I rather feel you are facing some stiff competition .....

Gardenwalker

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gardenwalker said:

I do not fear 2017 personally. I have taken a new job on almost double my last salary, my two-year-old daughter is bright, healthy and happy, and things going well we will buy a new family home in the spring and get some space after being cooped up in a two bed apartment in central London.

I am one of the lucky ones.

More broadly though, I expect to continue witnessing the slow retreat of Western liberal democracy.

It's been my privilege (age 38) to see the fall of the Berlin Wall, the crushing of Communist dictatorship, the rise of the Internet and the rapid decrease in global poverty

I certainly don't believe that Liberal Democracy has either worn itself out nor has found itself in retreat. What I believe has happened over the past few years is that those who believed that Liberal Democracy meant a left wing, soft socialist agenda would always win out have been roundly disabused of that notion - and that is no bad thing.

I am afraid your world view has blinded you to the fact that your particular notion of liberalism and democracy are not as widely held as you might think. That does not mean that either liberalism or democracy are under threat, simply that other opinions on what they mean for how we are governed are currently in the ascendant.

Plus ca change plus c'est la meme chose.

Apart from my vehement disagreement with you on Brexit you know very little about my world view, and although there may be multiple interpretations of liberal and democracy (the German Democratic Republic, anyone?) there are certain irreducibles, like rule of law, which should not be refuted.

It is the retreat of these fundamentals that concerns me. Not necessarily in this country, but in the increasingly connected world we and our children inhabit.

Happy New Year all.

peter_from_putney

I love this song - hope for the future, but with some nostalgic sadness for the past:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Uo0JAUWijM

Very best wishes to Mike Smithson and all PBers for the New Year.

RobD

SandyRentool said:

@RobD - a bit too early to say that. If the terrorists do strike I would expect it to be at midnight.

Glad to see they are operating on GMT!

AnneJGP

The fireworks have died down outside my bedroom window, so I'm for bed. A very happy and peaceful New Year, everyone.

foxinsoxuk

AlastairMeeks said:

AnneJGP said:

Good evening, everyone, and a Happy New Year where applicable, to those in earlier time-zones.

Many thanks to OGH and all at PB for keeping the show on the road. Cheers!

(But I'm surprised @AndyJS didn't make POTY double figures; I was expecting his EU referendum night spreadsheet to guarantee him an honourable mention at least. Just as well I don't bet, obviously.)

@AndyJS should have won by a landslide.

He was heavily mentioned in the comments and rightly so.

Few put as much effort in yet shared so widely. I will buy him drinks all night if I run across him at a PB drinkies.

2016 has been a pretty good year for me personally, albeit depressing politically with the forces of reaction and intolerance in the ascendant.

1666

The problem with the UK is that it needs to get back to politics as it was in the 19th century with two parties with same agenda not some wishie washy socialist party opposing a sensible centre right party.
Will this happen probably not.

1666

A deafening silence methinks !

JosiasJessop

1666 said:

A deafening silence methinks !

People are too busy building Lego.

Or is that just me?

DecrepitJohnL

Arguably we've just had it. The Blairites are Cameroons and the Cameroons are Blairites. The rhetoric may have differed but by and large the policies were the same.

TheScreamingEagles

I think I would have won had the election been conducted under AV.

But AndyJS deserves it for that spreadsheet.

FrancisUrquhart

France employees are getting the legal right to avoid work emails outside working hours. The new law, which has been dubbed the "right to disconnect", comes into force on 1 January.

Companies with more than 50 workers will be obliged to draw up a charter of good conduct, setting out the hours when staff are not supposed to send or answer emails.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38479439

Bromptonaut

A new year message from Frau Merkel.

https://judithknott.wordpress.com/2016/12/31/happy-new-year-from-angela-merkel

Sunil_Prasannan

Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2016 Edition. Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time - excludes journeys taken to reach said routes. Other routes were done for the first time in previous calendar years.

January: Kidsgrove to Manchester Piccadilly, Overton to Salisbury, Ashford to Eastbourne, Manningtree to Harwich

February: Nottingham to Hucknall (NET tram), Alderley Edge to Cheadle Hulme, Manchester Piccadilly to Ashton (Manchester Metrolink), Chester to Liverpool via Birkenhead, Newhaven Harbour to Seaford

March: Ford to Bognor Regis, Polegate to Eastbourne, Crowhurst to St Leonards, Petersfield to Portsmouth, Portsmouth to Eastleigh, Derby to Matlock, Matlock to Rowsley South (Peak Rail)

April: Faversham to Dover, Ely to Kings Lynn, Liverpool to Southport, Thorpe-le-Soken to Walton-on-Naze

May: Ely to Norwich, Cambridge to Stowmarket, Stockport to Buxton, Barnham to Havant, Bedhampton to Cosham, Fareham to St Denys (Southampton), Island Line (Ryde to Shanklin, Isle of Wight), Bull Street to New Street (Midland Metro)

June: Ipswich to Lowestoft, Nottingham to Chesterfield, Nottingham to Clifton South (NET), Nottingham to Toton Lane (NET), David Lane to Phoenix Park (NET), Peterborough to Lincoln, Ramsgate to Dover

(part 1 of 2 )

Sunil_Prasannan

Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys, 2016 edition:

(part 2 of 2 )

July: Gloucester to Newport (Wales), Liverpool to Wigan North Western, Southampton to Weymouth, Nottingham to Lincoln, Grantham to Skegness, Gobowen to Chester, Norwich to Great Yarmouth (via Acle), Great Yarmouth to Norwich (via Berney Arms), Sileby to Melton Mowbray, Ipswich to Felixstowe

August: Nottingham to Worksop, Salisbury to Westbury, Winsford to Manchester Airport, Manchester Airport to Piccadilly, Eastleigh to Salisbury, Norwich to Sheringham, Manchester Piccadilly to Leeds (via Huddersfield), Guide Bridge to Hadfield (via Glossop), Hadfield to Dinting (direct)

September: Piccadilly to Bury (Manchester Metrolink), Salisbury to Exeter St. Davids (via Yeovil), Sheffield Station to Halfway (Supertram), Gleadless Townend to Herdings Park (Supertram), Brockenhurst to Lymington Pier, Birkenhead Hamilton Square to West Kirby, Birkenhead North to New Brighton, Reedham (Norfolk) to Lowestoft, Ely to Kennett, Wigan North Western to Preston

October: Pewsey to Newton Abbot (avoiding Westbury and Frome, and via Exeter St Davids), Stockport to Chester (via Altrincham), Redbridge (Hants.) to Romsey, Sheffield to Doncaster (avoiding Rotherham), Chippenham to Trowbridge, Manchester Piccadilly to Liverpool (via Warrington Central), Huyton to Manchester Deansgate (via Newton-le-Willows), Castle Cary to Yeovil Junction (via Pen Mill), Bruton to Frome, Hooton to Ellesmere Port, Ellesmere Port to Helsby, Bristol to Taunton (avoiding Weston-super-Mare), Langley Green to Smethwick Rolfe Street (rare track - engineering diversion!)

November: Hazel Grove to Sheffield, Sandhills (Liverpool) to Ormskirk, Worle to Highbridge and Burnham (via Weston-super-Mare), Sheffield University to Malin Bridge (Supertram), Hillsborough to Middlewood (Supertram), Fitzalan Square to Meadowhall (Supertram), Piccadilly Gardens to Altrincham (Metrolink), Cornbrook to Eccles (Metrolink), Harbour City to Media City (Metrolink).

December: Liverpool Central to Hunts Cross, Kirkdale to Kirkby, Warrington Bank Quay to St Helens Junction, Manchester Airport to Trafford Bar (Metrolink), St Werburgh's Road to East Didsbury (Metrolink), Colchester Town to Hythe, Meadowhall to Swinton (via Rotherham), Oxford Parkway to Oxford, Exchange Square to Rochdale Town Centre (Metrolink), St Peter's Square to Market Street (Metrolink).

1666

We need a better rail network so that our ageing population can be better served as well as the rest
of our country .

Bromptonaut

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys, 2016 edition:

(part 2 of 2 )

July: Gloucester to Newport (Wales), Liverpool to Wigan North Western, Southampton to Weymouth, Nottingham to Lincoln, Grantham to Skegness, Gobowen to Chester, Norwich to Great Yarmouth (via Acle), Great Yarmouth to Norwich (via Berney Arms), Sileby to Melton Mowbray, Ipswich to Felixstowe

August: Nottingham to Worksop, Salisbury to Westbury, Winsford to Manchester Airport, Manchester Airport to Piccadilly, Eastleigh to Salisbury, Norwich to Sheringham, Manchester Piccadilly to Leeds (via Huddersfield), Guide Bridge to Hadfield (via Glossop), Hadfield to Dinting (direct)

September: Piccadilly to Bury (Manchester Metrolink), Salisbury to Exeter St. Davids (via Yeovil), Sheffield Station to Halfway (Supertram), Gleadless Townend to Herdings Park (Supertram), Brockenhurst to Lymington Pier, Birkenhead Hamilton Square to West Kirby, Birkenhead North to New Brighton, Reedham (Norfolk) to Lowestoft, Ely to Kennett, Wigan North Western to Preston

October: Pewsey to Newton Abbot (avoiding Westbury and Frome, and via Exeter St Davids), Stockport to Chester (via Altrincham), Redbridge (Hants.) to Romsey, Sheffield to Doncaster (avoiding Rotherham), Chippenham to Trowbridge, Manchester Piccadilly to Liverpool (via Warrington Central), Huyton to Manchester Deansgate (via Newton-le-Willows), Castle Cary to Yeovil Junction (via Pen Mill), Bruton to Frome, Hooton to Ellesmere Port, Ellesmere Port to Helsby, Bristol to Taunton (avoiding Weston-super-Mare), Langley Green to Smethwick Rolfe Street (rare track - engineering diversion!)

November: Hazel Grove to Sheffield, Sandhills (Liverpool) to Ormskirk, Worle to Highbridge and Burnham (via Weston-super-Mare), Sheffield University to Malin Bridge (Supertram), Hillsborough to Middlewood (Supertram), Fitzalan Square to Meadowhall (Supertram), Piccadilly Gardens to Altrincham (Metrolink), Cornbrook to Eccles (Metrolink), Harbour City to Media City (Metrolink).

December: Liverpool Central to Hunts Cross, Kirkdale to Kirkby, Warrington Bank Quay to St Helens Junction, Manchester Airport to Trafford Bar (Metrolink), St Werburgh's Road to East Didsbury (Metrolink), Colchester Town to Hythe, Meadowhall to Swinton (via Rotherham), Oxford Parkway to Oxford, Exchange Square to Rochdale Town Centre (Metrolink), St Peter's Square to Market Street (Metrolink).

If you haven't ridden the bucking bronco from Stourbridge Town to Stourbridge Junction you aren't in the game.

Scott_P

1666 said:

We need a better rail network so that our ageing population can be better served as well as the rest
of our country .

A fan of HS2!

There had to be one...

1666

No you idiot nationwide NOT London

1666

Is there any real intelligentice on this site or not ??

1666

This next year will define whether we can get it together or not .

bigjohnowls

Happy New Year to all

FrancisUrquhart

1666 said:

Is there any real intelligentice on this site or not ??

“Listen, here’s the thing. If you can’t spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker.”

DavidL

SeanT said:

On topic, I wonder if we are neglecting Boris Johnson.

He was, I reckon, the crucial element in the Leave victory. He brought gravitas and charisma, and he is a proven winner in adverse circumstances.

I reckon you can dispense with almost any other Leave figure (with the exception of Farage) and they could still have won, with Boris.

Without Boris, and that fateful havering over his two features, the great global rupture of Brexit would never have happened. Discuss....

I agree that he was the key or at least a key to the win by Leave. Whether that made him a winner or a loser is yet to be determined.

FrancisUrquhart

Those man-child migrants? Some were as old as 29: Hundreds of adult asylum seekers lied about their age in order to enter Britain

Man in Hampshire claimed to be 17, but was assessed as being 29 by officials

Official age assessments were carried out by social workers across the country

Almost one in four of the claimants were found to be older than they claimed
In some areas every claimant turned out to be over 18

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4078702/Those-man-child-migrants-old-29-Hundreds-adult-asylum-seekers-lied-age-order-enter-Britain.html

I am sure Gary Lineker will be shortly tw@ttering again about how racist the Daily Mail plus anybody who questions the real age of child migrants is...

DavidL

And a very happy and prosperous New Year to all. Off to a New Year's party now. Many thanks for all the chat, the wit, the education and the entertainment in 2016. It's been a privilege.

FrancisUrquhart

Charities linked to terrorism at record high: extremists pose deadly threat by abusing fundraising groups, warns commission chief.

The number of times the Charity Commission has shared concerns about links between charities and extremism with police and other agencies has nearly trebled from 234 to 630 in just three years

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/31/charities-linked-terrorism-record-high-extremists-pose-deadly/

DavidL

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

SeanT said:

On topic, I wonder if we are neglecting Boris Johnson.

He was, I reckon, the crucial element in the Leave victory. He brought gravitas and charisma, and he is a proven winner in adverse circumstances.

I reckon you can dispense with almost any other Leave figure (with the exception of Farage) and they could still have won, with Boris.

Without Boris, and that fateful havering over his two features, the great global rupture of Brexit would never have happened. Discuss....

I agree that he was the key or at least a key to the win by Leave. Whether that made him a winner or a loser is yet to be determined.

Indeed.

I believe two simultaneous things about Boris:

1. He didn't expect to win. He thought (as I did) it would be a very narrow Remain victory, which would make him the heir apparent to a damaged Cameron...

2. He genuinely thinks Brexit is marginally the better option, however painful. He may be a philanderer and a chancer, but he's not a charlatan.

I agree with both.

rpjs

Bromptonaut said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys, 2016 edition:

(part 2 of 2 )

July: Gloucester to Newport (Wales), Liverpool to Wigan North Western, Southampton to Weymouth, Nottingham to Lincoln, Grantham to Skegness, Gobowen to Chester, Norwich to Great Yarmouth (via Acle), Great Yarmouth to Norwich (via Berney Arms), Sileby to Melton Mowbray, Ipswich to Felixstowe

August: Nottingham to Worksop, Salisbury to Westbury, Winsford to Manchester Airport, Manchester Airport to Piccadilly, Eastleigh to Salisbury, Norwich to Sheringham, Manchester Piccadilly to Leeds (via Huddersfield), Guide Bridge to Hadfield (via Glossop), Hadfield to Dinting (direct)

September: Piccadilly to Bury (Manchester Metrolink), Salisbury to Exeter St. Davids (via Yeovil), Sheffield Station to Halfway (Supertram), Gleadless Townend to Herdings Park (Supertram), Brockenhurst to Lymington Pier, Birkenhead Hamilton Square to West Kirby, Birkenhead North to New Brighton, Reedham (Norfolk) to Lowestoft, Ely to Kennett, Wigan North Western to Preston

October: Pewsey to Newton Abbot (avoiding Westbury and Frome, and via Exeter St Davids), Stockport to Chester (via Altrincham), Redbridge (Hants.) to Romsey, Sheffield to Doncaster (avoiding Rotherham), Chippenham to Trowbridge, Manchester Piccadilly to Liverpool (via Warrington Central), Huyton to Manchester Deansgate (via Newton-le-Willows), Castle Cary to Yeovil Junction (via Pen Mill), Bruton to Frome, Hooton to Ellesmere Port, Ellesmere Port to Helsby, Bristol to Taunton (avoiding Weston-super-Mare), Langley Green to Smethwick Rolfe Street (rare track - engineering diversion!)

November: Hazel Grove to Sheffield, Sandhills (Liverpool) to Ormskirk, Worle to Highbridge and Burnham (via Weston-super-Mare), Sheffield University to Malin Bridge (Supertram), Hillsborough to Middlewood (Supertram), Fitzalan Square to Meadowhall (Supertram), Piccadilly Gardens to Altrincham (Metrolink), Cornbrook to Eccles (Metrolink), Harbour City to Media City (Metrolink).

December: Liverpool Central to Hunts Cross, Kirkdale to Kirkby, Warrington Bank Quay to St Helens Junction, Manchester Airport to Trafford Bar (Metrolink), St Werburgh's Road to East Didsbury (Metrolink), Colchester Town to Hythe, Meadowhall to Swinton (via Rotherham), Oxford Parkway to Oxford, Exchange Square to Rochdale Town Centre (Metrolink), St Peter's Square to Market Street (Metrolink).

If you haven't ridden the bucking bronco from Stourbridge Town to Stourbridge Junction you aren't in the game.

Is that the Parry People Mover flywheel-electric thingy? Always struck me as a solution in search of a problem.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Happy new year to PBers worldwide

PeterC

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

SeanT said:

On topic, I wonder if we are neglecting Boris Johnson.

He was, I reckon, the crucial element in the Leave victory. He brought gravitas and charisma, and he is a proven winner in adverse circumstances.

I reckon you can dispense with almost any other Leave figure (with the exception of Farage) and they could still have won, with Boris.

Without Boris, and that fateful havering over his two features, the great global rupture of Brexit would never have happened. Discuss....

I agree that he was the key or at least a key to the win by Leave. Whether that made him a winner or a loser is yet to be determined.

Indeed.

I believe two simultaneous things about Boris:

1. He didn't expect to win. He thought (as I did) it would be a very narrow Remain victory, which would make him the heir apparent to a damaged Cameron...

2. He genuinely thinks Brexit is marginally the better option, however painful. He may be a philanderer and a chancer, but he's not a charlatan.

I shall never forget the look on Boris's face on the morning of June 24th.

Bromptonaut

rpjs said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys, 2016 edition:

(part 2 of 2 )

July: Gloucester to Newport (Wales), Liverpool to Wigan North Western, Southampton to Weymouth, Nottingham to Lincoln, Grantham to Skegness, Gobowen to Chester, Norwich to Great Yarmouth (via Acle), Great Yarmouth to Norwich (via Berney Arms), Sileby to Melton Mowbray, Ipswich to Felixstowe

August: Nottingham to Worksop, Salisbury to Westbury, Winsford to Manchester Airport, Manchester Airport to Piccadilly, Eastleigh to Salisbury, Norwich to Sheringham, Manchester Piccadilly to Leeds (via Huddersfield), Guide Bridge to Hadfield (via Glossop), Hadfield to Dinting (direct)

September: Piccadilly to Bury (Manchester Metrolink), Salisbury to Exeter St. Davids (via Yeovil), Sheffield Station to Halfway (Supertram), Gleadless Townend to Herdings Park (Supertram), Brockenhurst to Lymington Pier, Birkenhead Hamilton Square to West Kirby, Birkenhead North to New Brighton, Reedham (Norfolk) to Lowestoft, Ely to Kennett, Wigan North Western to Preston

October: Pewsey to Newton Abbot (avoiding Westbury and Frome, and via Exeter St Davids), Stockport to Chester (via Altrincham), Redbridge (Hants.) to Romsey, Sheffield to Doncaster (avoiding Rotherham), Chippenham to Trowbridge, Manchester Piccadilly to Liverpool (via Warrington Central), Huyton to Manchester Deansgate (via Newton-le-Willows), Castle Cary to Yeovil Junction (via Pen Mill), Bruton to Frome, Hooton to Ellesmere Port, Ellesmere Port to Helsby, Bristol to Taunton (avoiding Weston-super-Mare), Langley Green to Smethwick Rolfe Street (rare track - engineering diversion!)

November: Hazel Grove to Sheffield, Sandhills (Liverpool) to Ormskirk, Worle to Highbridge and Burnham (via Weston-super-Mare), Sheffield University to Malin Bridge (Supertram), Hillsborough to Middlewood (Supertram), Fitzalan Square to Meadowhall (Supertram), Piccadilly Gardens to Altrincham (Metrolink), Cornbrook to Eccles (Metrolink), Harbour City to Media City (Metrolink).

December: Liverpool Central to Hunts Cross, Kirkdale to Kirkby, Warrington Bank Quay to St Helens Junction, Manchester Airport to Trafford Bar (Metrolink), St Werburgh's Road to East Didsbury (Metrolink), Colchester Town to Hythe, Meadowhall to Swinton (via Rotherham), Oxford Parkway to Oxford, Exchange Square to Rochdale Town Centre (Metrolink), St Peter's Square to Market Street (Metrolink).

If you haven't ridden the bucking bronco from Stourbridge Town to Stourbridge Junction you aren't in the game.

Is that the Parry People Mover flywheel-electric thingy? Always struck me as a solution in search of a problem.

It is indeed. Much cheaper than a trip to Alton Towers and almost as exciting.

FrancisUrquhart

A "tax" on charities to pay for a hotline for charities trustees to complain about their own charities...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/31/need-charities-tax-win-back-public-trust-says-charity-commission/

I am sure people putting a £10 in a collection tin will love to hear that!

rcs1000

@DavidL

I'm sorry to take so long to respond to your response to my response to your economic forecasts.

My assumption for 2017 is that nominal income growth in 2017 will broadly match that of 2015 and 2014. Your contention that income has held up is simply not true. In 3Q16, income fell at a 0.6% annual rate. Now, this is a real number, so the nominal number will still have been comfortably positive, but I really don't see any reason why we should expect nominal UK income growth to accelerate next year. If you believe that we'll have inflation of 2.5%, then to get 2.2% real GDP growth (assuming that consumption and investment move in lock step), then you need 4.7% nominal income growth. I think that is unrealistic.

More likely, we'll see we nominal income growth remaining roughly in lock step with previous years. Export contribution should improve as the Eurozone continues its modest economic recovery, and as the US pursues expansionary fiscal policies (although the US impact is likely to be bigger in 2018 than 2017), but gross capital formation (investment) is likely to be weak next year, simply because lots of firms are deferring capital investment decisions until the shape of Brexit is known.

I'm not forecasting disaster, by any means, merely that nominal income growth remains at the level of the last few years, while inflation eats away at purchasing power somewhat. Assuming 2.5% to 3% inflation and 4% nominal income growth, with a small positive impact from exports, and a small negative from gross capital formation, and you end up with UK GDP growth of 1% or maybe a little less.

Melissa Kidd, who is (to my mind) the best economist in Europe, recently revised down her expectations for the UK. (She's now forecasting a technical recession.) She was probably the only serious economist who was previously sanguine on the UK and Brexit. I think all of us would be foolish to ignore her.

JosiasJessop

Scott_P said:

1666 said:

We need a better rail network so that our ageing population can be better served as well as the rest
of our country .

A fan of HS2!

There had to be one...

And me!

Don't forget me!

(Goes back to his Lego)

1666

You obviously did not see my comments . I have no interest in links with London they are good enough we need better connections nationwide to the detriment of the capital .

rcs1000

1666 said:

You obviously did not see my comments . I have no interest in links with London they are good enough we need better connections nationwide to the detriment of the capital .

Who did not see your comments?

rcs1000

@1666

I'm assuming your username reflects your belief that the best thing that could happen to London is that it burnt to the ground.

1666

Are still awake or just drifting into oblivion . If I were IS or those who seek to destroy us I would wait for New Year when most of you have lost it.
Get a grip !

1666

The Nation sleeps God help us !

viewcode

AnneJGP said:

Andy_Cooke said:

FPT

MTimT said:

@ Mr Herdson "As an aside, infinity plus x is the same as infinity"

May I suggest some reading:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/strange-but-true-infinity-comes-in-different-sizes/

A pedant writes: infinity plus x does in fact always equal infinity (ie the same infinity to which the x is added).
In Cantorian terms, any transfinite number plus a finite number equals the original transfinite number.
There are indeed operations which can change one infinity into a greater one (one transfinite number to another) but addition doesn't do the trick.

Although this may in fact be the most pedantic intervention ever on pb.com...

I rather feel you are facing some stiff competition .....

Damn right (elbows everybody aside)

It depends on what you mean by "plus". "Infinity" is not a number. You can't use arithmetic on things that aren't numbers. So if by "plus" you mean "add" then "infinity plus x" is meaningless: it's like saying "cake plus x"

As you have noted ("...Cantorian terms...") there are ways of handling infinities. But arithmetic is not one of them

viewcode

Anyhoo, New Year beckons. Happy new year to you all and all the best for 2017

1666

Am I on a different planet or are just all incapable of seeing what is coming to destroy you !

rcs1000

A Happy New Year to all PBers who use the CrowdScores App!

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

rcs1000 said:

A Happy New Year to all PBers who use the CrowdScores App!

Great app. Thanks.

FrancisUrquhart

Breaking...terrorist attack in Turkey.

1666

Well you see what I mean !!

steve_garner

2016 was the year the voters spoke and they are rarely wrong. To illustrate, I defy anyone on here to tell me the voters got any GE decision wrong since 1979.

Happy New Year to you all.

viewcode

steve_garner said:

I defy anyone on here to tell me the voters got any GE decision wrong since 1979.

All of them?

Gotta go. Laters.

JonathanD

rcs1000 said:

@DavidL

Melissa Kidd, who is (to my mind) the best economist in Europe, recently revised down her expectations for the UK. (She's now forecasting a technical recession.) She was probably the only serious economist who was previously sanguine on the UK and Brexit. I think all of us would be foolish to ignore her.

A UK technical recession would certainly upset the UK political scene. Perhaps it could be just in time for the triggering of Article 50, which would tie in nicely with the Treasury forecast. Leave have certainly left themselves plenty of hostages to fortune.

foxinsoxuk

viewcode said:

steve_garner said:

I defy anyone on here to tell me the voters got any GE decision wrong since 1979.

All of them?

Gotta go. Laters.

Nah. 1997 was right and 2010.

All the rest were wrong.