politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s a fallacy to presume that 60% of those who’ll actually vo

Scott_P said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Real News. Terrible for whinging remoaners.
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa
UK car production smashes 17-year record making more than 1.6m motors http://dailym.ai/2h4OcJt via @ThisIsMoney

Why?

We have a weak pound (Brexiteers keep telling us how great that is) and we ARE STILL PART OF THE CUSTOMS UNION.

If we leave, car manufacturing will be devastated. You will notice we haven't left yet...

Bad news = Brexit
Good news = We haven't left yet
Rinse and repeat

Jobabob said:

@TSE

Please god no. No more effing stupid internet lingo please.

I have yet to hear a single person vocalise the phrase virtue signalling. I doubt I will ever hear 'vice signalling' away from the weirdo world of internet forums either. Ditto SJW, handwaving, and the utterly moronic 'waycist'.

Pretty much this. Literally, no one has even heard of these terms outside of the internet. This is why it's hilarious that people genuinely think that 'virtue signalling' etc is the reason why the Left have lost this year.

Roger said:

How this sorry saga will end.....

Wild currency fluctuations in March '17...... Government panic..... Leading Brexiteer comes out to recant and say he made a serious mistake...... Gove says it was wrecked by government indecision ....calls for May to resign...£ sinks to parity with the dollar...Scotland calls for second independence referendum IMMEDIATELY.....£ continues to fall...Hammond CALLS emergency budget.....Boris resigns followed by Fox......May calls Red White and Blue election...Her leadership is challenged by Davis....there's a run on Irish passports...... Farage is appointed US ambassador

Corbyn and Farron win the most seats and form the second Lib Lab pact. Corbyn cycles to the palace

You missed out the flying pigs from the beginning of that dream Roge.

We're leaving, despite all the whining.

"Peter Lilley's 1997 warning about the tripartite system will become as iconic and momentous as the £350m NHS pledge."

You mean both will be largely forgotten except for political obsessives and on the odd occasion someone brings them up on a forum like this, they will be quoted incorrectly and out of context?

BTW, I don't see Democrats collectively blaming the FBI and the Russians for Clinton's loss. What I've seen is Democrats (and some Republicans too) express concern at the Russian hacking scandal. And as for Clinton's ratings, Trump's ratings for an incoming President are pretty awful as well, and the signs are so far are that Trump is doing absolutely nothing to reach out to those outside his base.

The_Apocalypse said:

BTW, I don't see Democrats collectively blaming the FBI and the Russians for Clinton's loss. What I've seen is Democrats (and some Republicans too) express concern at the Russian hacking scandal. And as for Clinton's ratings, Trump's ratings for an incoming President are pretty awful as well, and the signs are so far are that Trump is doing absolutely nothing to reach out to those outside his base.

Someone will now link to a democrat who is blaming the FBI and the Russians, but the is valid - the extreme reactions, on any side, are not reflective of the average member of that group.

The_Apocalypse said:

Jobabob said:

@TSE

Please god no. No more effing stupid internet lingo please.

I have yet to hear a single person vocalise the phrase virtue signalling. I doubt I will ever hear 'vice signalling' away from the weirdo world of internet forums either. Ditto SJW, handwaving, and the utterly moronic 'waycist'.

Pretty much this. Literally, no one has even heard of these terms outside of the internet. This is why it's hilarious that people genuinely think that 'virtue signalling' etc is the reason why the Left have lost this year.

Go and do some canvassing and you'll find, as I have since 2005, that:

- public attitudes to immigration are far different to those portrayed by the media
- public tolerance of political correctness is very, very low
- public distaste for the EU is very, very high
- many Labour voters despaired of the Miliband leadership, and even more so the Corbyn leadership
- distrust of the SNP is a huge factor in marginals
- apart from amongst activists, the attitude towards LDs since they went into government has changed dramatically - for the worse

These are the public manifestations of why mainstream and hard leftism are unpopular - virtue signalling, SJW and waycist are the shorthand for these.

"Cameron believed in what all Tory PMs believe in - cold, hard pragmatism. Getting elected. He embraced Remain because he genuinely thought that would win - as did the rest of us. He does have a legacy - he gave the British public the golden opportunity of leaving the EU. Thanks, David!!"

Before 2010 I had genuinely high hopes for Cameron. I seriously thought he could be a great PM. Even in the early days of the coalition I kept the faith. Gradually, I came to realise that the man was a complete pillock, a blue Blair but with even worse judgement than his hero. He was the biggest political disappointment of my lifetime.

Yes I can give thanks that he have us the referendum, though the circumstances of his doing so do not reflect well on him. On the whole I was glad to see the back of him and his mate Osborne.

Roger said:

How this sorry saga will end.....

Wild currency fluctuations in March '17...... Government panic..... Leading Brexiteer comes out to recant and say he made a serious mistake...... Gove says it was wrecked by government indecision ....calls for May to resign...£ sinks to parity with the dollar...Scotland calls for second independence referendum IMMEDIATELY.....£ continues to fall...Hammond CALLS emergency budget.....Boris resigns followed by Fox......May calls Red White and Blue election...Her leadership is challenged by Davis....there's a run on Irish passports...... Farage is appointed US ambassador

Corbyn and Farron win the most seats and form the second Lib Lab pact. Corbyn cycles to the palace

Can we keep this for posterity?

HurstLlama said:

"Peter Lilley's 1997 warning about the tripartite system will become as iconic and momentous as the £350m NHS pledge."

You mean both will be largely forgotten except for political obsessives and on the odd occasion someone brings them up on a forum like this, they will be quoted incorrectly and out of context?

Well notwithstanding what happens to us all in the long run, I would say that the history books will ensure that they remain key milestones, for one reason or another, in the accounts of the GFC era.

Yorkcity said:

Can not see Labour winning this by election in Feb march or April.However if it is in May on same day as council elections they might hold it.Similar to last year when they did better than most forecasts and winning the London and Bristol mayoralities .Which seemed to me that many who were writing Labour obituaries was a bit premature .Many were saying the same in 92 then doing a full reverse and writing off the Conservatives in 97.It is hard to predict next year never mind 2020.

The local elections last year were in the middle of a referendum campaign that split the Tories down the middle, while the PM trashed his own approval ratings with a series of increasingly hysterical projections of what'd happen if Leave won. That scenario is unlikely to be repeated this May.

Scott_P said:

HurstLlama said:

You mean both will be largely forgotten except for political obsessives and on the odd occasion someone brings them up on a forum like this, they will be quoted incorrectly and out of context?

Which part of this is "out of context"?

It's outside the context of a Leave campaign that was not intended to win.

And if somehow they did win, nobody would hold them to account because we'd all come together since nobody really wanted to stay in the EU and it was only Cameron's traitorous support for Remain that avoided a 70-30 landslide for Leave.

Mortimer said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Jobabob said:

@TSE

Please god no. No more effing stupid internet lingo please.

I have yet to hear a single person vocalise the phrase virtue signalling. I doubt I will ever hear 'vice signalling' away from the weirdo world of internet forums either. Ditto SJW, handwaving, and the utterly moronic 'waycist'.

Pretty much this. Literally, no one has even heard of these terms outside of the internet. This is why it's hilarious that people genuinely think that 'virtue signalling' etc is the reason why the Left have lost this year.

Go and do some canvassing and you'll find, as I have since 2005, that:

- public attitudes to immigration are far different to those portrayed by the media
- public tolerance of political correctness is very, very low
- public distaste for the EU is very, very high
- many Labour voters despaired of the Miliband leadership, and even more so the Corbyn leadership
- distrust of the SNP is a huge factor in marginals
- apart from amongst activists, the attitude towards LDs since they went into government has changed dramatically - for the worse

These are the public manifestations of why mainstream and hard leftism are unpopular - virtue signalling, SJW and waycist are the shorthand for these.

Can you explain the difference between political correctness, and basic civility - with which it seems often to be confused ?

My tweet to Betfair seems to have got the Clinton and Trump % markets suspended

Hopefully a payout soon.

Turnout not suspended, they've f*cked themselves over on that one...

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Jobabob said:

@TSE

Please god no. No more effing stupid internet lingo please.

I have yet to hear a single person vocalise the phrase virtue signalling. I doubt I will ever hear 'vice signalling' away from the weirdo world of internet forums either. Ditto SJW, handwaving, and the utterly moronic 'waycist'.

Pretty much this. Literally, no one has even heard of these terms outside of the internet. This is why it's hilarious that people genuinely think that 'virtue signalling' etc is the reason why the Left have lost this year.

The tendency may exist in reality even if people do not use the term as much. Since most such terms are really just about suggesting others are focusing on minor or the wrong points (for varying motivations), that definitely does happen, as focusing on the wrong thing contributes to people losing.

I think that the Clinton campaign messed up, but I think it's for different reasons to what many on here think. I think the right's attribution that identity politics is the reason for Clinton's loss is much to do with their own grievances and hatred of it, rather than that being the definitive reason as to why Clinton lost. I would argue that much of Clinton's loss is related to Clinton being seen as an establishment candidate, and thus as someone who would continue the economic policies which have seen many, particularly in the Rust Belt lose out financially. It's been well documented that median wages have been declining now for a number of decades across the Western world. I think Clinton thought that making the election a referendum on Trump would lead her winning, but instead by making it personal it also shone the spotlight on her deficiencies as well. For all the talk of identity politics, Obama won two elections with identity politics as an aspect of his platform in 08', and 12', and even now Clinton won the popular vote. Look at the approval ratings of Obama now - they're not too far behind B.Clinton and Regan, at the end of their presidencies. A lot of Clinton's issues, I think can be accredited to the inefficiency of her campaign - for example not visiting places like Wisconsin. That just reinforces the perception that a Clinton presidency would ignore these groups.

I think, as much as anything, the Trump win was to do with his vastly superior use of TV, as set out in this article which I ought to have read >before< the election -
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-wolff-donald-trumps-shrewd-822494
- and social media (which Plato's irritatingly persistent posts ought to have clued us into).

Policy is secondary - indeed for Trump himself, it appears to be of relatively small importance.

@Mortimer
Miliband's unpopularity was nothing to do with virtue signalling/SJW - particularly since Miliband didn't really do any of these. Miliband's issues were as follows:

- On a superficial level, he didn't look and sound like a leader.
- He lacked a coherent political vision. Miliband was so caught between his own centre-left politics, and where the Tories had shifted the centre towards, that by 2015 his views were an incoherent muddle of an attempt square both diametric elements together. With no coherent economic and social policies, that meant that the Conservative could focus in on Miliband's long-standing personal flaws even more. Combined with the credibility the Conservatives had on the economy and welfare - two of the central issues at the time - a Miliband loss was inevitable.

On Corbyn: Imagine conflating a hard-left candidate with the rest of the left. As if Corbyn's bizarre attitudes reflects everyone who votes Labour, or everyone left wing. The left is more than just some 18-24 year olds who go on tumblr and twitter FGS.

On immigration: The media pretty much reflects public attitudes towards immigration. Publications like the Mail and The Sun are probably big reasons why the EU Referendum essentially became a hate-fest towards foreigners, as opposed to a genuine examination of the pros and cons of the EU.

- I'm not a fan of the EU myself. However the public are fairly divided on the issue, as the referendum result shows.

- Well, obvious point on the LDs. But I don't see how that has anything to do with SJW/virtue signalling etc. The LDs lost voters because they went into coalition with the Tories for a start, and the Tories successfully in Lib/Con marginals used the LDs to position themselves as a socially liberal, fiscally conservative party. Because they positioned themselves in that centre, that led to the LDs becoming irrelevant, and the Tories winning seats.

- On political correctness: I recall you expressing an opinion along the lines that racism and sexism is merely being impolite. My experiences with people from a range of political perspectives suggest that many think otherwise.

- SNP weren't unpopular because they were a social democratic party. The issue there was that voters were concerned Miliband would become a puppet for Scottish interests which isn't a left/right issue.

Yorkcity said:

Simon your party opposed the the bail out of Northern rock.

Northern Rock shareholders were not bailed out.

The shares became worthless.

The LDs were only on 3.5% last time. I can't see them getting more than 7-8% at the by-election.

Scott_P said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Real News. Terrible for whinging remoaners.
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa
UK car production smashes 17-year record making more than 1.6m motors http://dailym.ai/2h4OcJt via @ThisIsMoney

Why?

We have a weak pound (Brexiteers keep telling us how great that is) and we ARE STILL PART OF THE CUSTOMS UNION.

If we leave, car manufacturing will be devastated. You will notice we haven't left yet...

The EU tariff on car imports from outside the customs union is 10%.

This is far less than the devaluation of sterling since the referendum.

UK car manufacturers will be quids in, even with a 10% tariff.

TOPPING said:

Off topic

Is there a prize/penalty for anyone who posts on Christmas day?

Does it show a) a desperate sadness at being on an internet chatroom on Christmas of all times; or b) a refreshing feet-on-the-ground interest in current affairs whatever the circumstances?

Or maybe you are a muslim or a non Christian who doesn't celebrate Christmas.

David_Evershed said:

UK car manufacturers will be quids in, even with a 10% tariff.

The supply chains will be crippled. They can't sell cars if they can't make them

David_Evershed said:

Scott_P said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Real News. Terrible for whinging remoaners.
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa
UK car production smashes 17-year record making more than 1.6m motors http://dailym.ai/2h4OcJt via @ThisIsMoney

Why?

We have a weak pound (Brexiteers keep telling us how great that is) and we ARE STILL PART OF THE CUSTOMS UNION.

If we leave, car manufacturing will be devastated. You will notice we haven't left yet...

The EU tariff on car imports from outside the customs union is 10%.

This is far less than the devaluation of sterling since the referendum.

UK car manufacturers will be quids in, even with a 10% tariff.

They most certainly won't. You are making a very naive mistake, of thinking that tariffs on completed cars are the issue. They are not; the issues are tariffs, and non-tariff barriers such as delays in customs, on the supply-chain.

There is absolutely no doubt that potential damage to our car industry is the single most worrying economic risk of the Brexit process.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Anyone interested in the Barings collapse - ask me at the next PB Drinks! Suffice it to say that, from the government and BoE point of view, it was a textbook example of how to handle a bank crash, and of how these things were successfully handled for 150 years before Gordon Brown.

Of course, it was a small bank, which made it easier.

My Dad helped Eddie out on it (he was on the committee that acted as an informal sounding board). I'm sure he'd appreciate your kind comments

TOPPING: are you fairly new to PB? Because usually there are loads of comments on Christmas Day on the site, including sometimes a special crossword quiz.

AndyJS said:

TOPPING: are you fairly new to PB? Because usually there are loads of comments on Christmas Day on the site, including sometimes a special crossword quiz.

My memory is often, um, impaired on Christmas Day.

Wouldn't be surprised if I posted five hundred times in years gone by.

The Lib Dems owe Labour no favours at the by-election.

They ran a candidate that could have scuppered Olney in Richmond, that that did not happen is irrelevant. It COULD have happened.

If the Greens were in with a serious shout (They aren't) then perhaps it could be considered... I think the Greens will run in this one, expecially if the Lab candidate is pro-nuclear.

@gettingbetter What do you make the turnout to be ?

Pulpstar said:

The Lib Dems owe Labour no favours at the by-election.

They ran a candidate that could have scuppered Olney in Richmond, that that did not happen is irrelevant. It COULD have happened.

If the Greens were in with a serious shout (They aren't) then perhaps it could be considered... I think the Greens will run in this one, expecially if the Lab candidate is pro-nuclear.

The Progressive Alliance is going well, then.

https://twitter.com/ncpoliticseu/status/811978687881117697

The_Apocalypse said:

Nigelb said:

I think, as much as anything, the Trump win was to do with his vastly superior use of TV, as set out in this article which I ought to have read >before< the election -
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-wolff-donald-trumps-shrewd-822494
- and social media (which Plato's irritatingly persistent posts ought to have clued us into).

Policy is secondary - indeed for Trump himself, it appears to be of relatively small importance.

I agree with you very much on policy. This is where I think some of the Trump/Regan comparisons are so off. For a start Regan was a governor for several years prior to running for President, and actually had a coherent political outlook. Trump doesn't appear to have one - which is why the likes of Bannon seem to see a Trump presidency as an opportunity to exert their own 'alt-right' agenda, and why establishment Republicans seem to think they use a Trump presidency as a platform to implement their own longstanding aims (like Ryan with Medicare).

An interesting piece of evidence which tends to support the policy is irrelevant view - Trump voters are strongly in favour of expanding renewable power investment... as well as coal:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/31/clinton-trump-supporters-deeply-divided-over-use-of-fossil-fuel-energy-sources/

(So Trump's strong aversion to wind power, for example, is not shared by the vast majority of those who voted for him.)

Nigelb said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Nigelb said:

I think, as much as anything, the Trump win was to do with his vastly superior use of TV, as set out in this article which I ought to have read >before< the election -
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-wolff-donald-trumps-shrewd-822494
- and social media (which Plato's irritatingly persistent posts ought to have clued us into).

Policy is secondary - indeed for Trump himself, it appears to be of relatively small importance.

I agree with you very much on policy. This is where I think some of the Trump/Regan comparisons are so off. For a start Regan was a governor for several years prior to running for President, and actually had a coherent political outlook. Trump doesn't appear to have one - which is why the likes of Bannon seem to see a Trump presidency as an opportunity to exert their own 'alt-right' agenda, and why establishment Republicans seem to think they use a Trump presidency as a platform to implement their own longstanding aims (like Ryan with Medicare).

An interesting piece of evidence which tends to support the policy is irrelevant view - Trump voters are strongly in favour of expanding renewable power investment... as well as coal:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/31/clinton-trump-supporters-deeply-divided-over-use-of-fossil-fuel-energy-sources/

(So Trump's strong aversion to wind power, for example, is not shared by the vast majority of those who voted for him.)

Pew is an absolutely fantastic resource. Recently, I was reading American views on abortion. Really intriguing to how British and American views differ so much on this subject.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Roger said:

How this sorry saga will end.....
Wild currency fluctuations in March '17...... Government panic..... Leading Brexiteer comes out to recant and say he made a serious mistake...... Gove says it was wrecked by government indecision ....calls for May to resign...£ sinks to parity with the dollar...Scotland calls for second independence referendum IMMEDIATELY.....£ continues to fall...Hammond CALLS emergency budget.....Boris resigns followed by Fox......May calls Red White and Blue election...Her leadership is challenged by Davis....there's a run on Irish passports...... Farage is appointed US ambassador
Corbyn and Farron win the most seats and form the second Lib Lab pact

Real News. Terrible for whinging remoaners.
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa
UK car production smashes 17-year record making more than 1.6m motors http://dailym.ai/2h4OcJt via @ThisIsMoney

Despite Brexit.

TOPPING said:

AlsoIndigo said:

Yorkcity said:

Rcs100 apologies you are correct bail out the banks customers. I did not agree with Alistair Darling bailing out customers getting a high rate outside the UK the Icelandic Banks.

How does the rescue of the 2008 banking near-fatalities compare with say Barings, to an outsider it seems the former got off rather more leniently than that later ?

The latter was sold to whoever it was for a dollar, or somesuch, IIRC and all employees and shareholders suffered. Neither, in those heady days (I heard the news on the radio as I was on my way to the Kong Kong Derby early one Sunday morning), did banks have the kind of holdings which created the bonkers systemic risk 20 years later. Apart from the name, which might have been vaguely familiar to a few people, no one was touched or aware of Barings.

If Northern Rock had gone down, it would have engendered panic across all high street banks, mass withdrawal and a drawdown of banks' capital reserves, such as they were at the time. There are plenty of left wing critics of the "money creation" system we have now, and it would all have fallen apart under a bank panic if the government hadn't stepped in as it did. Belatedly.

£1 which literally came out of the pocket of the partner closing the deal. Barings was, if you look at the actual exposures, tiny and outside a limited audience, unknown. Plus they had a history of regular insolvency...

Anyone else worried that World War III/nuclear holocaust will start because of a tweet from Donald Trump?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/811977223326625792

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Anyone interested in the Barings collapse - ask me at the next PB Drinks! Suffice it to say that, from the government and BoE point of view, it was a textbook example of how to handle a bank crash, and of how these things were successfully handled for 150 years before Gordon Brown.

Of course, it was a small bank, which made it easier.

Surely a textbook example of the Bank of England not having a clue what was happening until after it happened.

Some of that, too. But it's hard to know what is happening when the relevant contract notes are hidden in a drawer in Singapore.

The drawer belonging to the person who was both supposed to be monitoring malpractices and perpetrating them.

Dear god a lot has changed regulatorily and oversight-wise since then.

You'd hope so but wasn't the UBS unauthorised trading loss similar?

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/ncpoliticseu/status/811978687881117697

Eurobarometer surveys are a mess and border on propaganda. Anyone with the most basic understanding of survey design would not attach much weight to them.

MP_SE said:

Eurobarometer surveys are a mess and border on propaganda. Anyone with the most basic understanding of survey design would not attach much weight to them.

"I don't like this result"

Fixed it for you...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anyone else worried that World War III/nuclear holocaust will start because of a tweet from Donald Trump?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/811977223326625792

That nice Mr Putin has just said much the same thing, only in more than 140 characters.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/12/22/putin-russias-military-is-stronger-than-any-potential-aggressor.html

AndyJS said:

David_Evershed said:

AndyJS said:

The LDs were only on 3.5% last time. I can't see them getting more than 7-8% at the by-election.

Lib Dems in the next door Tim Farron constituency will be available to campaign, especially to make inroads in centres of population like Keswick and Whitehaven.

I don't think the LDs have the basic potential to get more than about 10% in Copeland. It's simply a very weak area for them over the years. The fact that it's next door to Westmorland & Lonsdale doesn't really make any difference to that IMO.

Keswick is a relatively strong Lib Dem town much more akin to Windermere and Kendal . I am sure they will concentrate efforts here to gain the CC division . They lost it narrowly in 2013 but held it previously ( different boundaries ) . The other 3 Allerdale wards have potential though they are more rural and Conservative inclined . Any vote increase the Lib Dems achieve here will be at the Conservatives expense .

Pulpstar said:

Personally I'm just relieved that Trident will save us all from Nuclear disaster.

So long as the French have nuclear weapons, then so should we

The trouble with that page, Mr Verulaminus, is that as the text makes plain it represents one view of government spending, and perhaps not a complete one. I suspect that a lot of people who follow and report on government spending will struggle to reconcile the figures.

£2136 Health spending & £4,100 pension + welfare spend per person.

Wonder how that compares to yesteryear/other countries...

O/T

News from Warwick Crown Court:

"Five men have been convicted of sexually abusing and trafficking six teenage girls in Coventry.
Waqaar Khan, Kadeem Bourne, Kenan Kelly, Marcus Woolcock and Zahid Chaudhary were accused of almost 40 offences, Warwick Crown Court heard.
Ringleader Khan befriended the girls, aged 15 to 17, on social media before picking them up and forcing them to have sex, sometimes filming it.
West Midlands Police described them as "brazen, calculating and evil".
The court heard the men took the girls, some of whom were in care, to secluded areas of the city and sometimes gave them alcohol or drugs before abusing and trafficking them for sex."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-38396427

Pulpstar said:

£2136 Health spending & £4,100 pension + welfare spend per person.

Wonder how that compares to yesteryear/other countries...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita

Health spending in the UK less than France, US, Germany, Canada
But more than Portugal, Czech Republic, Greece

Having experienced the Portuguese health system I am not keen to reduce our spend

Luckyguy1983 said:

Scott_P said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Real News. Terrible for whinging remoaners.
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa
UK car production smashes 17-year record making more than 1.6m motors http://dailym.ai/2h4OcJt via @ThisIsMoney

Why?

We have a weak pound (Brexiteers keep telling us how great that is) and we ARE STILL PART OF THE CUSTOMS UNION.

If we leave, car manufacturing will be devastated. You will notice we haven't left yet...

Bad news = Brexit
Good news = We haven't left yet
Rinse and repeat

Brexiteer equivalent:

Bad news = Remoaner propaganda / We haven't left yet
Good news = Brexit
See a unicorn in real life = Laundry day

Why does everyone think the by-election will be delayed until May? Surely both Lab and Con will want it quicker than that, in order to try and keep everyone else out of the game?

As for the Lib Dems and UKIP, pretty sure Lib Dems will do better than at the General Election and UKIP worse.

Mortimer is out of date on public attitudes to the Lib Dems. He needs to start paying attention to those "parish council" elections.

MikeSmithson said:

Can we stop the terms like "remoaner" and other derogatory terms to describe one side or another in EU debate.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Anyone interested in the Barings collapse - ask me at the next PB Drinks! Suffice it to say that, from the government and BoE point of view, it was a textbook example of how to handle a bank crash, and of how these things were successfully handled for 150 years before Gordon Brown.

Of course, it was a small bank, which made it easier.

NR shareholders got it in the neck, but didn't the bond holders escape more or less unharmed ? Nice work if you can get it I would have thought.

rcs1000 said:

MikeSmithson said:

Can we stop the terms like "remoaner" and other derogatory terms to describe one side or another in EU debate.

But "traitorous scum" is ok, right?

Or possibly "reactionary backwoodsmen"... can't think where I heard the term, possible in a Meeks thread header a day or two ago