politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the LDs run a high-octane campaign in Copeland then LAB wil
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This is must win for Labour, who must throw the kitchen sink at it.
The interesting question is what will May do? What is worth more - an extra commons vote or Corbyn secure in post?0 -
Given many seem sure he would not go even if they lost this seat, she surely has to go hard at it on the basis Corbyn is probably safe for now anyway.Jonathan said:This is must win for Labour, who must throw the kitchen sink at it.
The interesting question is what will May do? What is worth more - an extra commons vote or Corbyn secure in post?0 -
@Jonathan We're all assuming there will be a Copeland By-election. If Labour really are delaying it till May 4th then Theresa may decide there won't be one.0
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All this excitable chatter about the importance of the LibDems is just vapour.
Labour will chose a Brexiteer, probably a traditional trade unionist. They'll hold the seat by about 2 to 3k.
What happens this time is strongly correlated with what happened last time, and the time before that and the time before that ... all the way back to 1931.
Yeah, sure .... the LibDems are important.0 -
Yes, probably. But what harm assessing whether, under certain conditions, they could tip the balance?YBarddCwsc said:All this excitable chatter about the importance of the LibDems is just vapour.
Labour will chose a Brexiteer, probably a traditional trade unionist. They'll hold the seat by about 2 to 3k.
What happens this time is strongly correlated with what happened last time, and the time before that and the time before that ... all the way back to 1931.
.
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If the Tories don't win this it will
1) Confirm the Tories aren't 16 points ahead in the polls
2) Definitively end speculation about an early general election (police investigations not withstanding elsewhere)
If the Tories do win, given the rarity of government gains from the opposition, Mrs May might be tempted by an early election, life will a lot easier with a majority a lot more than 10.
My own hunch, the Tories could win this seat by standing still0 -
https://twitter.com/Fight4UK/status/811696082979876864isam said:
The people that used to tell us how no one cared about the EU, and it didn't affect us, now talk about it endlessly!Mortimer said:Faisal still on the same old topic I see....yawn.
Or endlessly copy n paste other people talking about it
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"Yes, probably. But what harm assessing whether, under certain conditions, they could tip the balance?"
No harm, kle4, no harm.
But, in most elections, the boring thing happens. Scotland 2015 is very rare.
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@Sunil_Prassanan Hah Even as a remoaner, must say that is quite funny0
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I still think that the Mayor holds the key . Mike Starkie looks like a genuine independent Independent but if he stands either as such or for one of the major parties he would be favourite0
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Is the boring thing a labour hold or a conservative gain?YBarddCwsc said:"Yes, probably. But what harm assessing whether, under certain conditions, they could tip the balance?"
No harm, kle4, no harm.
But, in most elections, the boring thing happens. Scotland 2015 is very rare.0 -
For all proportional representation aficionados: please explain how one is meant to construct a functioning Government for the Netherlands out of this mess...
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/811678757652144128
Note: you're not allowed to include the single least unpopular party because they are Far Right, so nobody else will play with them.
Good luck.0 -
My guess is that the job offer came today....Charles said:
So he gets a salary for longer?YellowSubmarine said:Question 1 about Copeland is why did Reed resign the day after recess started. It means Labour can't move the writ till the Commons comes back on 9th of January. Why did he force Labour to run a longer campaign and who does a longer campaign benefit ?
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Not sure Labour could delay it anywhere near that long. The convention is that the writ should be moved within 3 months of the vacancy appearing and the by election held a maximum of 19 working days later.YellowSubmarine said:@Jonathan We're all assuming there will be a Copeland By-election. If Labour really are delaying it till May 4th then Theresa may decide there won't be one.
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Should the by election be held on May 4th coinciding with the CC elections , I would expect the Lib Dems to concentrate their efforts in the 4 Allerdale wards with a good chance that they will gain the Keswick division0
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But when the Lib Dems collapsed here in 2015 it wasn't to the benefit of Labour. People seem to have this weird idea that Labour and Lib Dem voters are all somehow interchangeable, perhaps this much vaunted "progressive alliance". Outside of the Richmond Parks of this world I'm not sure that bears much resemblance to reality. Indeed in Sleaford there was anecdotal evidence that Labour's fall was due to their areas not turning out, not switches to the Lib dems. I have a tough time believing the Lib Dem pitch goes down well in this sort of community, as I said if anything they are more likely to take off of the Tories.kle4 said:
Well, if they can recover to where they were in 2010 and the Tories hold up about as well as 2015, Labour could be in trouble, a LD recovery more likely to come at Labour's expense and the Tories doing well nationally, if the polls are indeed correct. But if that is so likely as to make the Tories favourites is another matter,brokenwheel said:
There is? Do the Lib Dems generally do well in former mining communities then? I would have thought they were better off going after Tory remoaners.ThomasNashe said:Essexit. Because there is likely to be a significant Lab-LD swing, which could easily hand the seat to the tories?
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As he is not going to actually resign until end Jan that fits the bill for May 4thRichard_Tyndall said:
Not sure Labour could delay it anywhere near that long. The convention is that the writ should be moved within 3 months of the vacancy appearing and the by election held a maximum of 19 working days later.YellowSubmarine said:@Jonathan We're all assuming there will be a Copeland By-election. If Labour really are delaying it till May 4th then Theresa may decide there won't be one.
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I think that the PB Tory hivemind are getting Oldham West syndrome here - because they detest Corbyn, they think it's inconceivable that Labour could win anything. This simply isnt the picture being painted by facts on the ground, where Labour hasnt seen any spectacular failures in real electoral testing, unlike the embarrassing Tory showings in the local elections and Richmond.0
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Haven't we been through this before - can't any MP move the writ?0
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Not sure the LibDems owe Labour any favours, after Richmond.0
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Prediction:Tory gain. I think the polls are underestimating Labour at the moment because the turnout filters for the polls expect the next GE to be similar to the last GE. That is the problem for U.K polls they seem to be catching up to the last election. I think young people will turnout this time for Corbyn. But there aren't many universities here and we are seeing a rural vs. Urban split in our politics and many Labour former industrial rural areas are turning away from Labour. Labour second, UKIP third.
Tory 38%
Labour 37%
Ukip 15%
lib dem 5%0 -
@JWisemann I'm keeping Labour neutral in the betting - certainly not writing them off. Meeks is doing so likewise.0
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Agreed. The polls were not quite accurate for the last election, but they weren't far out - and to the extent that they were wrong, of course, they understated rather than overstated Conservative support.TheScreamingEagles said:My own hunch, the Tories could win this seat by standing still
Obviously Copeland is a Labour seat, and there are always local factors, but I somehow doubt that it is such an exceptional outlier (unlike Richmond Park, for example) that it can buck the trend enough to return another Labour MP.
Starting with a majority of two-and-a-half thousand from 2015, and then allowing for a substantially lower turnout for the by-election, all Labour has to do is lose 700-800 voters each to the Lib Dems and the Stay at Home Party and its majority is already gone. The actual damage to Labour is likely to be worse, and both common sense and recent polling evidence suggest that the Tory vote ought to hold up well.0 -
He announced that he is resigning end January, which works for a May election.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not sure Labour could delay it anywhere near that long. The convention is that the writ should be moved within 3 months of the vacancy appearing and the by election held a maximum of 19 working days later.YellowSubmarine said:@Jonathan We're all assuming there will be a Copeland By-election. If Labour really are delaying it till May 4th then Theresa may decide there won't be one.
No way are the LDs missing out on this one or Leigh. There is not much LD history here, but the same was true in Westmoreland until 2005.
A sensible local candidate advocating Red Brexit should win. I don't see May or the kippers doing well here. I am on Labour for this one.0 -
PB Tory expectation management seems to be predicting a Conservative win . Will be hard to explain away failure .0
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Im expecting a slightly increased Labour majority. It isnt fertile ground for the Dems at all, UKIP are still in turmoil, the popularity of the Tories is certainly not going to increase in the first quarter of this year...
I think the Tories are letting their own prejudices run away with them and vastly overestimating any negative effect Corbyn may be having on the pool of broadly labour-sympathetic voters.
This is all predicated on a sensible choice of candidate of course - local, working-class, not a rabid europhile new labourite...0 -
I don't see any reason at all for the Lib Dems to hold back. They have absolutely nothing to lose. It isn't their kind of seat so it won't be a disaster if they don't get many votes. Any kind of advance from where they were at the general election is progress. There aren't many upsides to were the Lib Dems are right now, but when expectations are so low you can't really go wrong.tlg86 said:
The Lib Dems have to be a bit careful here. I'm sure they won't, but if they were to stand aside, that would be a clear example for the Tories to point to at the next GE to say "the Lib Dems will support Corbyn, don't vote for them."ThreeQuidder said:I can't see what the LDs have to gain by running a strong campaign which can only help increase the government's majority.
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Nah.MarkSenior said:PB Tory expectation management seems to be predicting a Conservative win . Will be hard to explain away failure .
Not even Tony Blair at his apotheosis achieved a gain from the opposition.
The last Government gain from the opposition was nearly 35 years ago in circumstances that don't apply this time.0 -
"Escape from New York 3: Escape from Earth" is on E4. For some unfathomable reason Snake Plissken is played by Guy Pearce and they've changed the title to "Lockout", but they're not fooling me...Sunil_Prasannan said:Blackadder "Sense and Senility" on Yesterday Channel (Freeview 19) at 10.05 tonight.
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Not until he has vacated the seat.Mortimer said:Haven't we been through this before - can't any MP move the writ?
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Sunil, it is not wise to respond to a post complaining about cutting-and-pasting by cutting-and-pasting...Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://twitter.com/Fight4UK/status/811696082979876864isam said:
The people that used to tell us how no one cared about the EU, and it didn't affect us, now talk about it endlessly!Mortimer said:Faisal still on the same old topic I see....yawn.
Or endlessly copy n paste other people talking about it0 -
That is what you said in Richmond ParkMortimer said:@MarkSenior
Any road up, we're sure to best the Libs!0 -
14.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories don't win this it will
1) Confirm the Tories aren't 16 points ahead in the polls
2) Definitively end speculation about an early general election (police investigations not withstanding elsewhere)
If the Tories do win, given the rarity of government gains from the opposition, Mrs May might be tempted by an early election, life will a lot easier with a majority a lot more than 10.
My own hunch, the Tories could win this seat by standing still0 -
The Tory results at the local elections were quite creditable for a governing party, and they didn't contest Richmond...JWisemann said:I think that the PB Tory hivemind are getting Oldham West syndrome here - because they detest Corbyn, they think it's inconceivable that Labour could win anything. This simply isnt the picture being painted by facts on the ground, where Labour hasnt seen any spectacular failures in real electoral testing, unlike the embarrassing Tory showings in the local elections and Richmond.
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17 with the most recent YouGovThreeQuidder said:
14.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories don't win this it will
1) Confirm the Tories aren't 16 points ahead in the polls
2) Definitively end speculation about an early general election (police investigations not withstanding elsewhere)
If the Tories do win, given the rarity of government gains from the opposition, Mrs May might be tempted by an early election, life will a lot easier with a majority a lot more than 10.
My own hunch, the Tories could win this seat by standing still0 -
If it is a May election we will be one, two or three months post triggering Article 50.
Can we predict the effect of that?0 -
Worth noting that this seat was resistant to Cleggmania in 2010 because at the time the LibDems were strongly anti-nuclear; they have since done a reluctant U-turn because of climate change.
The closing of the Grasmere-Keswick road for 5 months after flooding was perceived to have been handled badly.
The power lines for the proposed nuclear power station near Sellafield are a big issue.
The seat will be split between the Labour Workington and Tory Penrith in the boundary review, so this is not a long-term job - and the marginality of it means that the candidates will have to work hard in the campaign. That doesn't sound appealing to any big beasts.
Tories have to be favourites but can also see them splitting votes with UKIP and letting Labour in. Fascinating contest though.0 -
It won't be particularly hard to explain away, given that Government gains from the main Opposition under such circumstances are almost unheard of. However, Labour is in such a bad way that I do think that the Tories would be disappointed, in private, not to win this one, even if they put a brave face on any defeat in public. Unexpected events not withstanding, I certainly think that they ought to be able to pull it off.MarkSenior said:PB Tory expectation management seems to be predicting a Conservative win . Will be hard to explain away failure .
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The May locals were not that bad true , sadly for them their expectation management was cr*p forecasting heavy losses for Corbyns Labour and gains for the ConservativesThreeQuidder said:
The Tory results at the local elections were quite creditable for a governing party, and they didn't contest Richmond...JWisemann said:I think that the PB Tory hivemind are getting Oldham West syndrome here - because they detest Corbyn, they think it's inconceivable that Labour could win anything. This simply isnt the picture being painted by facts on the ground, where Labour hasnt seen any spectacular failures in real electoral testing, unlike the embarrassing Tory showings in the local elections and Richmond.
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@ThreeQuidder Zac was standing as a CON candidate in all but name. Tory internal polling showed that this was the best way of keep LDs out. A mistake.0
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Why should Labour or the Lib Dems owe favours to one another? They are different parties. Both of them should look to their own interests.IanB2 said:Not sure the LibDems owe Labour any favours, after Richmond.
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The majority, not the poll lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
17 with the most recent YouGovThreeQuidder said:
14.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories don't win this it will
1) Confirm the Tories aren't 16 points ahead in the polls
2) Definitively end speculation about an early general election (police investigations not withstanding elsewhere)
If the Tories do win, given the rarity of government gains from the opposition, Mrs May might be tempted by an early election, life will a lot easier with a majority a lot more than 10.
My own hunch, the Tories could win this seat by standing still0 -
And therein lies a conundrum.Recidivist said:
Why should Labour or the Lib Dems owe favours to one another? They are different parties. Both of them should look to their own interests.IanB2 said:Not sure the LibDems owe Labour any favours, after Richmond.
The rather childish obsession with being 'anti Tory' rather than for anything cosigns them to the dunces corner.
They are blinded by the importance of a negative, but it binds them together in an artificial and mutually useless common goal.0 -
One of the many positive effects of the Brexit vote is that it has exposed the natural fault lines between Libs and Lab. There are going to be whole swathes of seats where 'Liberal' NOTA votes will be up for grabs now the Libs have nailed the European flag to their mast...
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So not actually as a Conservative. Thanks for agreeing.MikeSmithson said:@ThreeQuidder Zac was standing as a CON candidate in all but name.
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FFS...
Before entering Germany, he served four years for arson in Italy and faced a jail sentence in absentia in Tunisia. The failed asylum seeker is now the subject of a manhunt across Europe.
German judicial sources say the suspect, who reportedly entered Germany last year, was monitored in Berlin between March and September on suspicion of planning a robbery to pay for automatic weapons for use in an attack.
Surveillance was reportedly called off after it turned up nothing more than drug-dealing in a Berlin park and a bar brawl before the suspect disappeared from his regular haunts in Berlin.
The suspect was facing deportation as of June but there was a delay in receiving paperwork from Tunisia.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-383995610 -
If Farage mentions this I make him worse than the killerFrancisUrquhart said:FFS...
Before entering Germany, he served four years for arson in Italy and faced a jail sentence in absentia in Tunisia. The failed asylum seeker is now the subject of a manhunt across Europe.
German judicial sources say the suspect, who reportedly entered Germany last year, was monitored in Berlin between March and September on suspicion of planning a robbery to pay for automatic weapons for use in an attack.
Surveillance was reportedly called off after it turned up nothing more than drug-dealing in a Berlin park and a bar brawl before the suspect disappeared from his regular haunts in Berlin.
The suspect was facing deportation as of June but there was a delay in receiving paperwork from Tunisia.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-383995610 -
Do people on here see me as a pb Tory? Out of interest.0
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10 now, you can't assume the Shinners won't turn upThreeQuidder said:
The majority, not the poll lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
17 with the most recent YouGovThreeQuidder said:
14.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories don't win this it will
1) Confirm the Tories aren't 16 points ahead in the polls
2) Definitively end speculation about an early general election (police investigations not withstanding elsewhere)
If the Tories do win, given the rarity of government gains from the opposition, Mrs May might be tempted by an early election, life will a lot easier with a majority a lot more than 10.
My own hunch, the Tories could win this seat by standing still
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-legal-challenge-martin-mcguinness-refuses-to-rule-out-sinn-fein-mps-entering-westminster-to-a7397201.html
Personally, I'd love it if they turned up to abstain in person like another Irish MP did in 19790 -
Do people on here see me as a pb Tory? Out of interest.
I thought since Jahadi Jez and the Maomentum Mob took over the Labour Party we were all Tories now?0 -
As someone fluent in Urdu and Punjabi, you really don't want to know what I think 'Nunu' meansnunu said:Do people on here see me as a pb Tory? Out of interest.
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@nunu You're one of the few people I struggle to place on the political spectrum. Which is a good thing.0
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Lol , c. 6 hours for OGH to ramp up the impact of the 3.5% local heroes.
Labour must select a certifiable losing candidate to avoid the LD machine crushing them. Clearly they're between a rock & a hard place.0 -
Would they have to swear an oath to HMQueen? What would John McDonell say!TheScreamingEagles said:
10 now, you can't assume the Shinners won't turn upThreeQuidder said:
The majority, not the poll lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
17 with the most recent YouGovThreeQuidder said:
14.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories don't win this it will
1) Confirm the Tories aren't 16 points ahead in the polls
2) Definitively end speculation about an early general election (police investigations not withstanding elsewhere)
If the Tories do win, given the rarity of government gains from the opposition, Mrs May might be tempted by an early election, life will a lot easier with a majority a lot more than 10.
My own hunch, the Tories could win this seat by standing still
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-legal-challenge-martin-mcguinness-refuses-to-rule-out-sinn-fein-mps-entering-westminster-to-a7397201.html
Personally, I'd love it if they turned up to abstain in person like another Irish MP did in 19790 -
It is all so predictable. Each time it occurs, people think surely this will be the one which makes the authorities and media sit up and alter course, but no we are already on the "fear of backlash"....and the cycle continues...SeanT said:
Everything about this attack - EVERYTHING - is just horrendous for Merkel and German officialdom in general.isam said:
If Farage mentions this I make him worse than the killerFrancisUrquhart said:FFS...
Before entering Germany, he served four years for arson in Italy and faced a jail sentence in absentia in Tunisia. The failed asylum seeker is now the subject of a manhunt across Europe.
German judicial sources say the suspect, who reportedly entered Germany last year, was monitored in Berlin between March and September on suspicion of planning a robbery to pay for automatic weapons for use in an attack.
Surveillance was reportedly called off after it turned up nothing more than drug-dealing in a Berlin park and a bar brawl before the suspect disappeared from his regular haunts in Berlin.
The suspect was facing deportation as of June but there was a delay in receiving paperwork from Tunisia.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38399561
But the Germans are so cuckolded - and misled by a sincerely biassed media - I'm not sure there will be any major response
That may come in France or Holland.0 -
Viewcode, do stop re-moaning!!viewcode said:
Sunil, it is not wise to respond to a post complaining about cutting-and-pasting by cutting-and-pasting...Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://twitter.com/Fight4UK/status/811696082979876864isam said:
The people that used to tell us how no one cared about the EU, and it didn't affect us, now talk about it endlessly!Mortimer said:Faisal still on the same old topic I see....yawn.
Or endlessly copy n paste other people talking about it0 -
It is very difficult to deport people, and a number of African countries are notorious for not co-ooperating with deportations.FrancisUrquhart said:FFS...
Before entering Germany, he served four years for arson in Italy and faced a jail sentence in absentia in Tunisia. The failed asylum seeker is now the subject of a manhunt across Europe.
German judicial sources say the suspect, who reportedly entered Germany last year, was monitored in Berlin between March and September on suspicion of planning a robbery to pay for automatic weapons for use in an attack.
Surveillance was reportedly called off after it turned up nothing more than drug-dealing in a Berlin park and a bar brawl before the suspect disappeared from his regular haunts in Berlin.
The suspect was facing deportation as of June but there was a delay in receiving paperwork from Tunisia.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38399561
Of course we don't always do well ourselves. Take this fellow who has been a bit inflammatory over the 6 years our current PM was in charge of deportations:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3150348/Living-50-000-benefits-hate-preacher-inspired-beach-killer-Cleric-lives-five-bedroom-home-wife-five-children-thwarting-deportation-attempts-15-years.html0 -
Funniest thing in the last Parliament, both Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness stood down as MPs and triggered by elections, to do that they had to become Steward of the Manor of Northstead, which is an office of profit under The Crown.philiph said:
Would they have to swear an oath to HMQueen? What would John McDonell say!TheScreamingEagles said:
10 now, you can't assume the Shinners won't turn upThreeQuidder said:
The majority, not the poll lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
17 with the most recent YouGovThreeQuidder said:
14.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories don't win this it will
1) Confirm the Tories aren't 16 points ahead in the polls
2) Definitively end speculation about an early general election (police investigations not withstanding elsewhere)
If the Tories do win, given the rarity of government gains from the opposition, Mrs May might be tempted by an early election, life will a lot easier with a majority a lot more than 10.
My own hunch, the Tories could win this seat by standing still
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-legal-challenge-martin-mcguinness-refuses-to-rule-out-sinn-fein-mps-entering-westminster-to-a7397201.html
Personally, I'd love it if they turned up to abstain in person like another Irish MP did in 1979
So technically some Sinn Fein MPs already have.0 -
While SeanT does his best at impersonating Corporal Jones having an attack of the vapours, the Germans demonstrate a bit of stiff upper lip, keep calm and carry on Christmas shopping.SeanT said:
Everything about this attack - EVERYTHING - is just horrendous for Merkel and German officialdom in general.isam said:
If Farage mentions this I make him worse than the killerFrancisUrquhart said:FFS...
Before entering Germany, he served four years for arson in Italy and faced a jail sentence in absentia in Tunisia. The failed asylum seeker is now the subject of a manhunt across Europe.
German judicial sources say the suspect, who reportedly entered Germany last year, was monitored in Berlin between March and September on suspicion of planning a robbery to pay for automatic weapons for use in an attack.
Surveillance was reportedly called off after it turned up nothing more than drug-dealing in a Berlin park and a bar brawl before the suspect disappeared from his regular haunts in Berlin.
The suspect was facing deportation as of June but there was a delay in receiving paperwork from Tunisia.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38399561
But the Germans are so cuckolded - and misled by a sincerely biassed media - I'm not sure there will be any major response
That may come in France or Holland.0 -
Right now they aren't eligible to vote so they don't count. Should they take their seats, then the majority would be reduced.TheScreamingEagles said:
10 now, you can't assume the Shinners won't turn upThreeQuidder said:
The majority, not the poll lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
17 with the most recent YouGovThreeQuidder said:
14.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories don't win this it will
1) Confirm the Tories aren't 16 points ahead in the polls
2) Definitively end speculation about an early general election (police investigations not withstanding elsewhere)
If the Tories do win, given the rarity of government gains from the opposition, Mrs May might be tempted by an early election, life will a lot easier with a majority a lot more than 10.
My own hunch, the Tories could win this seat by standing still
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-legal-challenge-martin-mcguinness-refuses-to-rule-out-sinn-fein-mps-entering-westminster-to-a7397201.html
Personally, I'd love it if they turned up to abstain in person like another Irish MP did in 19790 -
@foxinsoxuk We're far too soft on miscreants like that.0
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I have just backed Ed Balls to be next PM after Teresa May with Ladbrokes at 250/1. I have no idea if Balls will seek to be the Labour candidate in Copeland but after "Strictly” if he were to do so I expect he would be chosen, would win and would be the obvious person to replace Corbyn if Corbyn stepped down or was voted out before the next General Election.
Could 250/1 be a Balls Up!
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My plan for deportees that other countries will not accept is a penal colony. Australia has one in PNG, and I am sure we could subcontract ourselves.Pulpstar said:@foxinsoxuk We're far too soft on miscreants like that.
The entrepreneurs of Puntland may well want a business opportunity to replace their shipping business.0 -
It's a chocolate shop in Brooklyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
As someone fluent in Urdu and Punjabi, you really don't want to know what I think 'Nunu' meansnunu said:Do people on here see me as a pb Tory? Out of interest.
http://www.nunuchocolates.com0 -
@Stjohn The previous MP for Copeland never lived in the seat. He stayed in his original North East as his family didn't want to move. A celebrity parashute is slightly different though. Though the Harmans manage to represent London and Birmingham.
The bigger issue for Balls would be Sellafield wanting a tame MP but not one who attracted scrutiny. A player but a party leader might be too much.0 -
Have you read 'reflections on the revolution in Europe' by Christopher Caldwell? Incredible book on Islamic immigration by a neutral journo w no axe to grind.SeanT said:
Everything about this attack - EVERYTHING - is just horrendous for Merkel and German officialdom in general.isam said:
If Farage mentions this I make him worse than the killerFrancisUrquhart said:FFS...
Before entering Germany, he served four years for arson in Italy and faced a jail sentence in absentia in Tunisia. The failed asylum seeker is now the subject of a manhunt across Europe.
German judicial sources say the suspect, who reportedly entered Germany last year, was monitored in Berlin between March and September on suspicion of planning a robbery to pay for automatic weapons for use in an attack.
Surveillance was reportedly called off after it turned up nothing more than drug-dealing in a Berlin park and a bar brawl before the suspect disappeared from his regular haunts in Berlin.
The suspect was facing deportation as of June but there was a delay in receiving paperwork from Tunisia.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38399561
But the Germans are so cuckolded - and misled by a sincerely biassed media - I'm not sure there will be any major response
That may come in France or Holland.
At times while reading it I had LSD-like out of body experiences/ flashbacks where for a second or two I genuinely thought it was all a bad dream and we hadn't brought this madness on ourselves.0 -
Of course he won't go if he loses this by-election. Why would he? Electoral success isn't part of his project and doesn't matter to him.ydoethur said:
That we are even talking about this as a possible Labour defeat is the most shocking indictment imaginable of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership - even if talk of a party with 9 MPs imminently replacing Labour seems a trifle hyperbolic. But if they lose, surely he has to go even if it doesn't lead May to find a pretext for an election.
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One thing that I rather like about Corbyn is that he is not the sort of leader who arranges Celebrity parachutes.
No Tristans dropped into Stoke or Mandelson to Hartlepool for him. So far all of the by elections under his tenure have featured candidates picked by the local party. True of Oldham, and Tooting where they won, as well as Kingston or Sleaford where they were no-hopers. It doesn't even seem to trouble him if they are not Corbynites. Whether he is a genuine believer in CLP selection processes or simply unable to host a piss up in a brewery, I do not know, but in Copeland I would expect a local candidate, possibly a councillor or Union official.YellowSubmarine said:@Stjohn The previous MP for Copeland never lived in the seat. He stayed in his original North East as his family didn't want to move. A celebrity parashute is slightly different though. Though the Harman's manage to represent London and Birmingham.
The bigger issue for Balls would be Sellafield wanting a tame MP but not one who attracted scrutiny. A player but a party leader might be too much.0 -
One for the PB Legal Eagles, from the heart of Trumpistan rustbelt, free legal advice:
http://www.knowable.com/a/this-lawyer-gives-hilarious-free-legal-advice-based-on-his-craziest-cases0 -
Looks like Copeland will be the first Parliamentary test for all parties post Article 50.
The LibDems will have serious "What next?" questions to answer.0 -
Vacuum cleaner in the Teletubbies!Restharrow said:
It's a chocolate shop in Brooklyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
As someone fluent in Urdu and Punjabi, you really don't want to know what I think 'Nunu' meansnunu said:Do people on here see me as a pb Tory? Out of interest.
http://www.nunuchocolates.com0 -
Sunil "Vacuum cleaner in the Teletubbies!"
Yes, I can't see this particular poster without thinking Naughty Nunu.....0 -
Apart from Tracy Brabin obviously.foxinsoxuk said:One thing that I rather like about Corbyn is that he is not the sort of leader who arranges Celebrity parachutes.
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I don't remoan. I correct people's errors and make amusing and interesting posts, thereby improving the lot of humanity and making the world a better place. And I do all this for free. No, no, don't thank me...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Viewcode, do stop re-moaning!!viewcode said:
Sunil, it is not wise to respond to a post complaining about cutting-and-pasting by cutting-and-pasting...Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://twitter.com/Fight4UK/status/811696082979876864isam said:
The people that used to tell us how no one cared about the EU, and it didn't affect us, now talk about it endlessly!Mortimer said:Faisal still on the same old topic I see....yawn.
Or endlessly copy n paste other people talking about it
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Well, well: finally, a by election where Mr Cyclefree has a vote.
I shall have to tell him how to use it.0 -
Would I be really horrible if I suggested it was a somewhat sweet euphemism for, er, "ladygarden"?TheScreamingEagles said:
As someone fluent in Urdu and Punjabi, you really don't want to know what I think 'Nunu' meansnunu said:Do people on here see me as a pb Tory? Out of interest.
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Close but no cigar.viewcode said:
Would I be really horrible if I suggested it was a somewhat sweet euphemism for, er, "ladygarden"?TheScreamingEagles said:
As someone fluent in Urdu and Punjabi, you really don't want to know what I think 'Nunu' meansnunu said:Do people on here see me as a pb Tory? Out of interest.
It means todger0 -
The vacuum in Teletubbies is named after a todger???TheScreamingEagles said:
Close but no cigar.viewcode said:
Would I be really horrible if I suggested it was a somewhat sweet euphemism for, er, "ladygarden"?TheScreamingEagles said:
As someone fluent in Urdu and Punjabi, you really don't want to know what I think 'Nunu' meansnunu said:Do people on here see me as a pb Tory? Out of interest.
It means todger0 -
Was that a Parachute? I understood that she came from the constituency, was politically active there (when no vacancy expected) and selected after local hustings.Dura_Ace said:
Apart from Tracy Brabin obviously.foxinsoxuk said:One thing that I rather like about Corbyn is that he is not the sort of leader who arranges Celebrity parachutes.
Jezza is doing it perhaps by accident rather than design, but is replacing the SPADocracy with local people selected by local parties.
Maybe, just maybe, the swamp is being drained before our very eyes, and in plain sight. I hope he keeps it up with the new boundaries. This potentially is the grass roots renewal that Labour needs, and neither a Blairite nor a Momentum stitch up.
Local candidate in Copeland nailed on.0 -
It's a bit counter-intuitive. Wouldn't the the Bouba-Kiki Effect dictate that "nunu" be used for the innie bit and a more spiky phrase for the outie bit? Or is this a phrase that adults use to children (cf "jobbie" for "shit") as a childish euphemism until they grow up and can cope with Big Words?TheScreamingEagles said:
Close but no cigar.viewcode said:
Would I be really horrible if I suggested it was a somewhat sweet euphemism for, er, "ladygarden"?TheScreamingEagles said:
As someone fluent in Urdu and Punjabi, you really don't want to know what I think 'Nunu' meansnunu said:Do people on here see me as a pb Tory? Out of interest.
It means todger0 -
'Whoever wins will only keep the seat until the next election, where under the new boundaries the Labour MP for Workington takes it over with a 14500 majority.'
But that is making the rash assumption that there will be new boundaries!
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In festive humbug news, @michaelgove is currently sermonising at @jayrayner1 via the medium of Twitter on the sin of self promotion.0
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Carrying on shopping when 12 people have been brutally murdered seems rather insensitive to me.foxinsoxuk said:
While SeanT does his best at impersonating Corporal Jones having an attack of the vapours, the Germans demonstrate a bit of stiff upper lip, keep calm and carry on Christmas shopping.SeanT said:
Everything about this attack - EVERYTHING - is just horrendous for Merkel and German officialdom in general.isam said:
If Farage mentions this I make him worse than the killerFrancisUrquhart said:FFS...
Before entering Germany, he served four years for arson in Italy and faced a jail sentence in absentia in Tunisia. The failed asylum seeker is now the subject of a manhunt across Europe.
German judicial sources say the suspect, who reportedly entered Germany last year, was monitored in Berlin between March and September on suspicion of planning a robbery to pay for automatic weapons for use in an attack.
Surveillance was reportedly called off after it turned up nothing more than drug-dealing in a Berlin park and a bar brawl before the suspect disappeared from his regular haunts in Berlin.
The suspect was facing deportation as of June but there was a delay in receiving paperwork from Tunisia.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38399561
But the Germans are so cuckolded - and misled by a sincerely biassed media - I'm not sure there will be any major response
That may come in France or Holland.
Mrs Merkel may have wanted to be a humanitarian to refugees but a price has been paid by those who have lost their lives, the grieving friends and families, the women assaulted and raped.
A leader who does not understand that her first and most basic duty is to protect the citizens of the country she leads from harm is a leader who is failing. I'd be pretty angry if I lost a loved one because my leader thought it more important to emote over strangers without making the most basic of checks.0 -
Not as hot as Tomi Lahren?SeanT said:
Weirdly, my ex girlfriend (a very hot, but rather uneducated policewoman) called her lady place her "Nunu".TheScreamingEagles said:
Close but no cigar.viewcode said:
Would I be really horrible if I suggested it was a somewhat sweet euphemism for, er, "ladygarden"?TheScreamingEagles said:
As someone fluent in Urdu and Punjabi, you really don't want to know what I think 'Nunu' meansnunu said:Do people on here see me as a pb Tory? Out of interest.
It means todger
You could build an entire and dreadfully unfunny inter-racial 70s sitcom around this confusion.
http://ew.com/tv/2016/12/21/tomi-lahren-beyonce-mtv/0 -
It will be an interesting by election, but I think an increased Labour majority is more likely than a Tory win.0
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Should the Germans cancel Christmas because of a murderous nutter?Cyclefree said:
Carrying on shopping when 12 people have been brutally murdered seems rather insensitive to me.foxinsoxuk said:
While SeanT does his best at impersonating Corporal Jones having an attack of the vapours, the Germans demonstrate a bit of stiff upper lip, keep calm and carry on Christmas shopping.SeanT said:
Everything about this attack - EVERYTHING - is just horrendous for Merkel and German officialdom in general.isam said:
If Farage mentions this I make him worse than the killerFrancisUrquhart said:FFS...
Before entering Germany, he served four years for arson in Italy and faced a jail sentence in absentia in Tunisia. The failed asylum seeker is now the subject of a manhunt across Europe.
German judicial sources say the suspect, who reportedly entered Germany last year, was monitored in Berlin between March and September on suspicion of planning a robbery to pay for automatic weapons for use in an attack.
Surveillance was reportedly called off after it turned up nothing more than drug-dealing in a Berlin park and a bar brawl before the suspect disappeared from his regular haunts in Berlin.
The suspect was facing deportation as of June but there was a delay in receiving paperwork from Tunisia.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38399561
But the Germans are so cuckolded - and misled by a sincerely biassed media - I'm not sure there will be any major response
That may come in France or Holland.
Mrs Merkel may have wanted to be a humanitarian to refugees but a price has been paid by those who have lost their lives, the grieving friends and families, the women assaulted and raped.
A leader who does not understand that her first and most basic duty is to protect the citizens of the country she leads from harm is a leader who is failing. I'd be pretty angry if I lost a loved one because my leader thought it more important to emote over strangers without making the most basic of checks.
Many of our Christmas traditions are of German origin, and continuing with Christmas markets is one of the best ways that Germans can demonstrate their cultural superiority over the Islamists.
A few security checks, then keep calm and carry on. There used to be another country famous for that once, but it seems to have retreated into mawkish sentimentality and histrionics. Our German cousins not only beat us at football, they also beat us at stiff upper lip.
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Conversely (and without belittling the situation), a leader who is increasing the population of her country dramatically and now (courtesy of Brexit) holds complete hegemony over all the neighbouring[1] countries, and by extension the wider Eurozone and EU27, is a leader who is succeeding.Cyclefree said:...A leader who does not understand that her first and most basic duty is to protect the citizens of the country she leads from harm is a leader who is failing. I'd be pretty angry if I lost a loved one because my leader thought it more important to emote over strangers without making the most basic of checks.
Many of the growth predictions to 2030 that so exercised people during the referendum were based on an expanding UK population and a contracting[2] Germany population. Those assumptions now no longer hold.
We run the danger of projecting out own views ("I'd be pretty angry if...") onto our interpretations without considering what they think of the matter
[1] From memory Germany has land borders with eight countries and if you include Sweden and the Baltics via the sea to its north that brings it up to 12
[2] Or not-growing-as-fast, which isn't the same thing: memory fails and it's late...
[edit: "nof" is not a word]0 -
As I recall they refused to request the positions as a silly tradition and legal fiction - which it is, but is quaint - so the speaker merely interpreted letters of resignations as in fact requests to be so appointed to those positions. So I think they both did and did not technically do so.TheScreamingEagles said:
Funniest thing in the last Parliament, both Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness stood down as MPs and triggered by elections, to do that they had to become Steward of the Manor of Northstead, which is an office of profit under The Crown.philiph said:
Would they have to swear an oath to HMQueen? What would John McDonell say!TheScreamingEagles said:
10 now, you can't assume the Shinners won't turn upThreeQuidder said:
The majority, not the poll lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
17 with the most recent YouGovThreeQuidder said:
14.TheScreamingEagles said:If the Tories don't win this it will
1) Confirm the Tories aren't 16 points ahead in the polls
2) Definitively end speculation about an early general election (police investigations not withstanding elsewhere)
If the Tories do win, given the rarity of government gains from the opposition, Mrs May might be tempted by an early election, life will a lot easier with a majority a lot more than 10.
My own hunch, the Tories could win this seat by standing still
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-legal-challenge-martin-mcguinness-refuses-to-rule-out-sinn-fein-mps-entering-westminster-to-a7397201.html
Personally, I'd love it if they turned up to abstain in person like another Irish MP did in 1979
So technically some Sinn Fein MPs already have.0 -
I know that a few posters here aren't the brightest, and Sean is said occasionally to be inebriated, but 'many' voting Tory, without even knowing it ...?kle4 said:
Many people turn out to be PM tories without even knowing it, or even voting Tory, it's quite remarkable, so probably.nunu said:Do people on here see me as a pb Tory? Out of interest.
Seems slightly unlikely.
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Cyclefree
"A leader who does not understand that her first and most basic duty is to protect the citizens of the country she leads from harm is a leader who is failing. I'd be pretty angry if I lost a loved one because my leader thought it more important to emote over strangers without making the most basic of checks."
Interestingly the same arguments the Daily Mail made in 1938 for which they still suffer the opprobrium of most thinking people to this day.0 -
I was in fact referring to the tendency to regard certain views as characteristic of pb tories, and thus by implication anyone with those views is presumably a pb Tory, even when we know posters sharing those views who are not tories. Thus, they are apparently pb tories without knowing it.Nigelb said:
I know that a few posters here aren't the brightest, and Sean is said occasionally to be inebriated, but 'many' voting Tory, without even knowing it ...?kle4 said:
Many people turn out to be PM tories without even knowing it, or even voting Tory, it's quite remarkable, so probably.nunu said:Do people on here see me as a pb Tory? Out of interest.
Seems slightly unlikely.
It works the other way too, but labour voters are thinner on the ground, so it's less likely someone of uncertain political leaning would be lumped in with them as happens with the pb Tory tag.0 -
Is this where we continually escalate "with all due respect", "with great respect", "with greatest possible respect", until we go nuclear?SeanT said:
With all due respect, who wants to expand their national population by importing 5m Muslims. Its cultural suicide. You are importing people from an intrinsically backward and inferior culture.
The people are fine (of course), but the religious culture? UGH.
It's not like they're more productive, either. The wives don't work.
Anyhoo...
Your point about the wives not working isn't conclusive: if somebody produces many children, then the labour of the children will outweigh the reduced labour of the mother.
As for culture: true, but so what? If backward and inferior people can take a pickaxe to a seam, screw bit A to widget B, bake bread, follow an equation, design a chip, program the computer, load the bullet into the gun, and do it as well as the forward and superior people we pride ourselves as being, then their backwardness and inferiority matters not one jot.
Germans, Russians and Islamists have notable cultural differences to the Anglosphere. And because of that we assume that they are inferior and are losing. But there is considerable evidence that Russia is doing rather well, the Islamists seem to defeat the West at every turn, and (thanks to us vacating the field and crawling up our own arse) Germany now owns Europe. I'm not looking at a victory here...
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Looks like there is more to the story about the guy who got chucked off the plane 'for being a muslim' than at first sight......one of the passengers "spontaneously" leaping to his defence had appeared in an earlier stunt with the passenger involved......0
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Quiet here tonight!0
