politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the LDs run a high-octane campaign in Copeland then LAB wil

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the LDs run a high-octane campaign in Copeland then LAB will be in trouble

if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["y3VeI"]={},window.datawrapper["y3VeI"].embedDeltas={"100":410.8,"200":383.8,"300":356.8,"400":356.8,"500":356.8,"600":356.8,"700":356.8,"800":356.8,"900":356.8,"1000":356.8},window.datawrapper["y3VeI"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-y3VeI"),window.datawrapper["y3VeI"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["y3VeI"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["y3VeI"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("y3VeI"==b)window.datawrapper["y3VeI"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"});

Read the full story here

Ishmael_Z

1

Scott_P

Fourth, like Labour...

MP_SE

Third like UKIP.

YellowSubmarine

Question 1 about Copeland is why did Reed resign the day after recess started. It means Labour can't move the writ till the Commons comes back on 9th of January. Why did he force Labour to run a longer campaign and who does a longer campaign benefit ?

LibDem_Colin

Labour did not stand down in Richmond so why should the Lib Dems stand down in Copeland.

I would hazard a guess that the Lib Dems will stand but fight a low-key campaign because the by-election will be on May 4th (Star Wars Day)

tlg86

Sixth like OMRLP

tlg86

LibDem_Colin said:

Labour did not stand down in Richmond so why should the Lib Dems stand down in Copeland.

I would hazard a guess that the Lib Dems will stand but fight a low-key campaign because the by-election will be on May 4th (Star Wars Day)

Can Labour leave it that long? If they can, it might be to Labour's advantage.

YellowSubmarine

Question 2 about Copeland s when will the By-election be held ? Doubtless Labour would prefer to have it on May 4th the same day as the Cumbria County Council elections. But can they really leave the area with no MP for four months ? And might another party try to move the writ if they do ?

Also note the constituency is far more remote than it looks because of geography and transport links. Most external activists would find is easier to get to a Glasgow by-election.

YellowSubmarine

Question 3. Reed took a publically advertised job. Lots of people must of known. Did he tell his local CLP ? Have they already started on postal votes ? But if they have why did Reed pull the stunt over the post recess resignation ?

LibDem_Colin

The BBC is reporting that he is resigning at end of Jan 2017 so I assumed that Labour would move the writ for May 4th.

Black_Rook

YellowSubmarine said:

Question 1 about Copeland is why did Reed resign the day after recess started. It means Labour can't move the writ till the Commons comes back on 9th of January. Why did he force Labour to run a longer campaign and who does a longer campaign benefit ?

An interesting question, which could be answered in one of several (highly speculative) ways. For example, perhaps his local party takes a similar dim view of the leadership to him, and he wants to give them time to organise to resist an unsuitable candidate being parachuted in? Or you could just as easily argue that he wants to give Labour the maximum amount of time to eviscerate itself publicly, lose the seat by as large a margin as possible, and hope that this generates enough panic to prompt another attempt to unseat Corbyn?

Then again, perhaps the job offer has just been confirmed and the "choice" of date is no more than coincidence?

Essexit

The LDs will find an excuse to stand whatever Labour do. All the reds will do by choosing a strongly Remain candidate (particularly one on the fence about respecting the result) is throw the election away for sure.

Speedy

As usual it's time to ignore the thread and it's recommendations.

This is a 50/50 fight between Labour and the Tories, in a historically Labour area with an unpopular local MP who has now resigned.

The LD have no say in a seat that voted 62% Leave and there are few Tory Remain votes to poach, they will probably get less than 10%.

Labour putting an unequivocal REMAINER in a HARD LEAVE seat is suicidal especially in a place where the LD are non-existent.

The big question is towards which side the UKIP vote goes down and by how much.

And of course lets not forget the candidates.

Labour has the upper hand but it's not a sure thing.

rcs1000

LibDem_Colin said:

Labour did not stand down in Richmond so why should the Lib Dems stand down in Copeland.

I would hazard a guess that the Lib Dems will stand but fight a low-key campaign because the by-election will be on May 4th (Star Wars Day)

The seat borders Westmoreland, so my guess is that the LibDems will flood it with activists. "Every by-election matters" is the Farron mantra.

I suspect there'll be a fairly low "return on activist time", but I wouldn't be surprised if they breached 10%.

AlastairMeeks

YellowSubmarine said:

Question 1 about Copeland is why did Reed resign the day after recess started. It means Labour can't move the writ till the Commons comes back on 9th of January. Why did he force Labour to run a longer campaign and who does a longer campaign benefit ?

That's an exceptionally sharp question.

YellowSubmarine

Question 4 about Copeland. What can the Tories do about the local NHS ? Yes there is always only 24hrs to save the NHS but the link cal service really is in big trouble. It's one of the first STPs to go out to public consultation nationally and is perceived as being about big cuts to services at West Cumberland Hospital. The local trust has been put into a Success Regime.

Indeed before this by-election the roof was about to fall in politically as all the indications were this reconfiguration was finally about to be pushed through. Noone locally would have been able to believe it given ( a) the breadth of the campaign ( b) that they've always won before.

No doubt the Tory candidate will campaign vigorously against to and bash " Hospital Bosses " but labour will make it a referendum on the maternity downgrade. ( Look at a map and see how far away Carlisle is if you are a woman in labour )

I can't help wonder if needed reason for Reed's timing is to suicide bomb the STP.

Black_Rook

"If LAB choose a strong REMAINER as candidate then there would be pressure on the LDs to stand aside. If not then then Farron’s party will argue that voters need a pro-EU alternative and will fight very hard."

1. Why should the Lib Dems stand aside?
2. How does fielding a Continuity Remain candidate help Labour in a seat that voted about 62% to Leave?
3. Continuing from point 2, this appears to make the (dubious) assumption that Labour can attract Remain voters in numbers which will greatly offset the Leave voters that it repels (i.e. that Continuity Remain is a massive vote winner but Leave Means Leave is not.) A 'brave' conclusion in a place like Copeland, to put it mildly, and one liable to do more harm than good if Brexit-supporting Labourites haemorrhage away to Ukip and the Tories.
4. If the Lib Dems were to withdraw then, once again, why assume that their potential vote would all go to Labour? Yellow voters who detest the Far Left might just as well vote Tory, Green, or stay at home. Brexit is very important but it's not alpha and omega.

peter_from_putney

"The bookies have been quick to get markets up and the Tories are odds-on favourites to win."

Not with Laddies they're not. Shadsy has both Labour and the Tories level-pegging on evens.

rcs1000

Speedy said:

As usual it's time to ignore the thread and it's recommendations.

This is a 50/50 fight between Labour and the Tories, in a historically Labour area with an unpopular local MP who has now resigned.

The LD have no say in a seat that voted 62% Leave and there are few Tory Remain votes to poach, they will probably get less than 10%.

Labour putting an unequivocal REMAINER in a HARD LEAVE seat is suicidal especially in a place where the LD are non-existent.

The big question is towards which side the UKIP vote goes down and by how much.

And of course lets not forget the candidates.

Labour has the upper hand but it's not a sure thing.

I suspect the LDs will get 10-12%. The seat borders Farron's, so there's a huge activist base to draw on; there's still 38% of voters who went Remain, and there'll be a lot of anti-Corbyn Labour supporters who want to send a message (and who don't want to vote Conservative).

ThreeQuidder

I can't see what the LDs have to gain by running a strong campaign which can only help increase the government's majority.

LibDem_Colin

rcs1000 said:

LibDem_Colin said:

Labour did not stand down in Richmond so why should the Lib Dems stand down in Copeland.

I would hazard a guess that the Lib Dems will stand but fight a low-key campaign because the by-election will be on May 4th (Star Wars Day)

The seat borders Westmoreland, so my guess is that the LibDems will flood it with activists. "Every by-election matters" is the Farron mantra.

I suspect there'll be a fairly low "return on activist time", but I wouldn't be surprised if they breached 10%.

By holding the by-election on the same day as Cumbria County Council elections said Lib Dem activists will work hard on holding and gaining county seats across Cumbria rather than target a Westminster seat with a large Leave vote.

Then factor in the cost of running a Westminster bye with elections expenses limit at £100,000

nunu

There is a way the Democrats can win the electoral college even by losing the popular vote, but it involves Hispanic voteshare plunging to 57% whilst getting supper majorities of black and asian/others. It also involes losing the white share by a ton.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

YellowSubmarine

Question 5 re Copeland is will there be a high profile Independent ? Copeland BC which covers most of the seat has an Independent elected Mayor. He won a three way contest on Conservative transfers after Labour won the first round. I'm not suggesting the Mayor will stand himself. But the grass roots campaign which triggered the mayoral referendum, won the referendum then won the Mayorality may rekindle. Especially given the NHS issue.

tlg86

AlastairMeeks said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Question 1 about Copeland is why did Reed resign the day after recess started. It means Labour can't move the writ till the Commons comes back on 9th of January. Why did he force Labour to run a longer campaign and who does a longer campaign benefit ?

That's an exceptionally sharp question.

Unless it is pure coincidence, I am struggling to come up with a reason that isn't to damage Labour's prospects.

nunu

oh damn the link doesn't show my numbers....

Black_Rook

ThreeQuidder said:

I can't see what the LDs have to gain by running a strong campaign which can only help increase the government's majority.

Parliamentary by-elections are high-profile contests in which the Lib Dems have been good at punching above their weight in the past.

They are now a minor party again, and if they're to rebuild rather than sink they need to make some noise, get as much publicity as possible, and try to convince people that they can be taken seriously.

There's nothing to be gained for them by being seen to have given up.

YellowSubmarine

Question 6 re Copeland. Will Labour select a Sellafield Union Official who conveniently voted Leave ? If they do the Labour are currently far too short.

Dixie

Lab need strong candidate, but Jezza should be able to screw that up. It does depends on who the Blues put up. Libs can't win. UKIP might pull up a couple of points. If you take an average of all by-elections, Labour are getting swing of about 3-5%, so if this is true to form, they could lose. However, it isn't Tories picking up the swing, but the Libs. If I had a pound to spend, I would put it on Labour. Better odds I assume, even chance.

Speedy

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

As usual it's time to ignore the thread and it's recommendations.

This is a 50/50 fight between Labour and the Tories, in a historically Labour area with an unpopular local MP who has now resigned.

The LD have no say in a seat that voted 62% Leave and there are few Tory Remain votes to poach, they will probably get less than 10%.

Labour putting an unequivocal REMAINER in a HARD LEAVE seat is suicidal especially in a place where the LD are non-existent.

The big question is towards which side the UKIP vote goes down and by how much.

And of course lets not forget the candidates.

Labour has the upper hand but it's not a sure thing.

I suspect the LDs will get 10-12%. The seat borders Farron's, so there's a huge activist base to draw on; there's still 38% of voters who went Remain, and there'll be a lot of anti-Corbyn Labour supporters who want to send a message (and who don't want to vote Conservative).

There might be a huge activist base, but there are no Liberals there not even ex-Liberals, the highest the LD have ever recorded in that seat was 11.5% in 2005.

As this is a marginal seat they along with UKIP will get squeezed, but towards whom is the question.

It's not a sure thing that the UKIP vote will move Tory, in By-elections since 2015 in Labour seats it moved to Labour.

tlg86

ThreeQuidder said:

I can't see what the LDs have to gain by running a strong campaign which can only help increase the government's majority.

The Lib Dems have to be a bit careful here. I'm sure they won't, but if they were to stand aside, that would be a clear example for the Tories to point to at the next GE to say "the Lib Dems will support Corbyn, don't vote for them."

PlatoSaid

LDs winning here again twaddle.

It's David Steel on repeat...

LibDem_Colin

I think Conservatives could win this - and Labour know it.
By holding the by-election on May 4th any loss would be in the mix of Labour wins in the new super-mayoral contests and the county council results.

PlatoSaid

Very awkward

Paul Joseph Watson
THIS is the outfit Facebook has hired to do its fake news "fact checking". @snopes has been DEBUNKED.

YellowSubmarine

Question 6 about Copeland. What can the Tories do about the three new reactors ? Under Osborne the Chinese funded reactors in the south were a priority. The the Brexit blackhole appeared sucking in political capital and May delayed Hinckley briefly. The Tories will say Corbyn threatens the reactors. Labour will say May should sign of on them now.

Again I wonder if Reed isn't suicide bombing the jog jam on the reactors. They will happen. But when ?

Speedy

PlatoSaid said:

LDs winning here again twaddle.

It's David Steel on repeat...

You've noticed, first "LD might win Manchester" now this.

But OGH is a LD so it's not unusual for PB to turn into Libdemvoice.

rcs1000

PlatoSaid said:

LDs winning here again twaddle.

It's David Steel on repeat...

I'm the most optimistic on here, and I'm pitching for 10-12%.

theakes

Plato: there will almost certainly be a high octance Lib Dem campaign, it will be to get up to about 15%, obtain the protest vote and push UKIP back to fourth. Judging from the local election results in Cumbria over the last 6 months The Cons and Labour will gain off UKIP and Labour may struggle, unless Ed Balls is the candidate!. But they should hold. There is a good Labour tradition there, its not a volatile seat.

AndyJS

I wonder whether Paul Nuttall will consider standing.

ThomasNashe

The idea that the LDs would stand aside for Corbyn's Labour is bunkum!

tlg86

Might Tony Blair consider running?

PlatoSaid

AndyJS said:

I wonder whether Paul Nuttall will consider standing.

He's said Nope

YellowSubmarine

Question 7 about Copeland. The initial boundry proposals shaft Labour in West Cumbria. They ruin it's super efficient vote distribution and reduce Labour to 1 seat from Cumbria's 5 from the current 3 from 6. Did Reed just not fancy fighting the new female MP from neighbouring Workington for the new combined super safe west coast seat they'd both have clear claim to ?

ThomasNashe

The LDs 'winning here' in Richmond turned out not to be twaddle, after all. Having said that I do think they've no chance of winning this one, but they do have a lot to gain if they can show clear signs of improvement. I suspect they're going to be a lot of effort in.

MJW

If one was being Machiavellian from the Lib Dem point of view it's difficult to know what the Lib Dems should do. The ultimate prize is somehow get past the corpse of Labour after Corbyn's strangled the life out of it and the party has split. Corbyn's leadership is a huge boon for them so it would be tempting to back of and try and give him a win to ensure he remains leader. But if that happens there's a strong chance Labour merely settles into the terrible opposition territory of the high twenties rather than existential crisis mode. Labour would be too weak to put up a fight against the Tories but still permanently out of reach for the Lib Dems.

Take the byelection on and hand Labour a loss at the hands of the Tories and carnage breaks out in Labour again. I'm shocked the Tories are marked as (just) favourites. If you can't win your own seat in a byelection you can throw everything at when the government's in an ill disguised funk over just quite what 'Brexit' entails, you might as well give up and go home. This runs the risk however of finally waving the coffee under Labour members' and the unions' nose and seeing people say "enough's enough". Or Corbyn deciding he needs more time on his allotment. However if Corbyn, as history dictates, sticks his head up his fundament and tells it what a big rally he's got then the prize could be huge - the end of Labour as a functioning party

YellowSubmarine

Question 8 which @Tig86 rightly asks about Copeland is who is Reed vacating Copeland for ?

Jonathan

Nutall?

tlg86

@MJW - the problem is, the Lib Dems have never envisaged themselves as replacing Labour.

Essexit

I still don't understand how Mike came to the conclusion in the thread header.

ThomasNashe

Essexit. Because there is likely to be a significant Lab-LD swing, which could easily hand the seat to the tories?

PlatoSaid

Essexit said:

I still don't understand how Mike came to the conclusion in the thread header.

LibDems are a protected class.

AndyJS

Disappointing if the by-election won't be held until May. Voters deserve to have a representative during those months.

tlg86

Essexit said:

I still don't understand how Mike came to the conclusion in the thread header.

I don't think Mike is tipping the Lib Dems to actually win, just to harm Labour's chances.

tyson

Jesus, Copleland...what a depressing part of the world. You'll be lucky to get someone with even a half normal shaped head wanting to spend 5 years there, if only for the odd Saturday surgery.

rcs1000

tlg86 said:

@MJW - the problem is, the Lib Dems have never envisaged themselves as replacing Labour.

That's not true at all. During the 1980s and the period until 1997, their goal was to replace Labour.

ThomasNashe

tig86.

That was certainly the aim of the SDP. And the LDs can certainly see the opportunity that Corbyn now presents them with.

tlg86

rcs1000 said:

tlg86 said:

@MJW - the problem is, the Lib Dems have never envisaged themselves as replacing Labour.

That's not true at all. During the 1980s and the period until 1997, their goal was to replace Labour.

Okay, it certainly wasn't their aim in 2005.

ThomasNashe

Tig86. LOL. 'never' becomes 2005!

YellowSubmarine

So what does this all mean ? The case for the defence is that Reed, whatever you think of him, is a young, talented, ambitious, uber Blairite, atlanticist, pro NATO, strongly pro Remain pragmatist. He may be a bit of a **** but politican often are. The fact he's walked for more pay and to give up the countries worst commute, Glasgow MP's can get to work easier, is no surprise.

His political world is in ashes. Almost everything he's devoted his career to todate is in ruins. Why not get out now. He has four young children. It's a disaster for the broader left but we are where we are. And the job change is less dramatic than it sounds. He's a Sellafield obsessive who is really just changing the office location he works for them at.

He's also very clever. *Leaver trigger warning* He knows Copeland a going to be one of the hardest hit constituencies by Brexit. He also knows when that happens the 62% who voted Leave will blame him not themselves. The roof is cavng in locally on the NHS and Council services. If the Brexit black hole delays the 3 new reactors by a few further years things get worse still.

So why not walk ? And be paid to dole out the " community funding " from Sellafield and be popular and insulated from what's coming instead ?

Freggles

I could see the Tories winning this on the back of the Labour vote collapsing and Lib Dems making headway

tlg86

ThomasNashe said:

Tig86. LOL. 'never' becomes 2005!

Tbf, that was the first election I paid a lot attention to. Charles Kennedy started his campaign at my sixth form college (Godalming).

YellowSubmarine

An example of the " Copeland fattest area in England " press coverage.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-26037619

MikeSmithson

Could people read the header before attacking me. I wasn't tipping the LDs to win. "Looking at the numbers it is very hard to see any party other than CON or LAB winning here."

Though I do have the grand sum of £2.74 on Betfair to win £216.46.

MikeSmithson

@tlg86 My wife Jacky used to teach at Godalming 6th Form College

YellowSubmarine

Also the Copeland Borough has the second highest suicide rate per capita in England.

http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/Cumbrian-areas-have-some-of-highest-suicide-rates-in-country-789f7bef-41af-4632-a100-608ab7fe4fda-ds

tlg86

MikeSmithson said:

@tlg86 My wife Jacky used to teach at Godalming 6th Form College

And a very good college it is - definitely worth the trek from Woking.

kle4

MikeSmithson said:

Could people read the header before attacking me.

Certainly not, that goes against all my instincts.

Though I don't see from the title why it would be taken as tipping the LDs.

Speedy

YellowSubmarine said:

Question 7 about Copeland. The initial boundry proposals shaft Labour in West Cumbria. They ruin it's super efficient vote distribution and reduce Labour to 1 seat from Cumbria's 5 from the current 3 from 6. Did Reed just not fancy fighting the new female MP from neighbouring Workington for the new combined super safe west coast seat they'd both have clear claim to ?

This is a legitimate point.

Reed had no chance of remaining an MP under the new boundaries of the seat, and as their has any Tory.

The notional majority of the new seat is 14500 for Labour.

Essexit

To be clear, I realise Mike's not tipping the LDs to win. I meant the conclusion that they'd stand aside if Labour fielded an uber Remainer.

YellowSubmarine

Question 9 about Copeland is what is the long range weather forecast like ? It's winter and major destructive flooding could very easily be a wild card in this seat.

tlg86

YellowSubmarine said:

Also the Copeland Borough has the second highest suicide rate per capita in England.

http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/Cumbrian-areas-have-some-of-highest-suicide-rates-in-country-789f7bef-41af-4632-a100-608ab7fe4fda-ds

I'd guess that's linked to farming which tends to have high suicide rates. The last time the area made the national headlines was when that bloke went round shooting people.

ThreeQuidder

tlg86 said:

@MJW - the problem is, the Lib Dems have never envisaged themselves as replacing Labour.

Certainly not any time recently. The "decapitation" tactic in 2005 was a strategic disaster.

dr_spyn

Copeland is home to The World's Biggest Liar Competition, (held at Stanton Bridge Inn) so claims of winning here et al might be under closer scrutiny than usual.

http://www.santonbridgeinn.com/the-worlds-bigest-liar

Richard_Tyndall

Trouble is I can't look at this constituency without thinking of the brilliant mockumentary book and website Scarfolk. A District stuck in 1979

http://scarfolk.blogspot.co.uk/

I would strongly recommend the book to anyone with a knowledge of the 1970s and a sense of the absurd.

YellowSubmarine

In conclusion ( for now ) if I were running the Labour campaign I'd select a Leave voting Trade Union Official from the Sellafield site but a slightly posh one who can be presented in the rural areas. I'd delay it till County Council election day which will tie down Farron in a different party of the county. I'd make it referendum on the STP and May signing off on the new reactors. The key will be signing up enough PV in the urban areas as they have very low turn outs.

Speedy

dr_spyn said:

Copeland is home to The World's Biggest Liar Competition, (held at Stanton Bridge Inn) so claims of winning here et al might be under closer scrutiny than usual.

Won by it's local MP presumably.

kle4

PlatoSaid said:

LDs winning here again twaddle.

It doesn't say that.

ThreeQuidder said:

I can't see what the LDs have to gain by running a strong campaign which can only help increase the government's majority.

What do they have to lose by running a strong campaign though, even if it contributes to increased government majority? The government's majority doesn't really affect them, they just need to present as having momentum, and having a good increase even if it means Labour loses helps them

That said, my gut reaction is strong campaign or not Labour's vote may hold up better than expected, so Tories being favourites may be wrong.

Jonathan

If the Lib Dems had been serious about replacing Labour they would not have formed the Coalition. If they hadn't, it is possible they would have replaced Labour by now.

kle4

Essexit said:

To be clear, I realise Mike's not tipping the LDs to win. I meant the conclusion that they'd stand aside if Labour fielded an uber Remainer.

There'd be pressure for them to stand aside, i think, not that they necessarily would. Labour didn't despite pressure in Richmond after all. Not going all out seems more likely than stepping aside, given even in a scenario quadrupling their vote the LDs are not within leagues of contention.

kle4

Jonathan said:

If the Lib Dems had been serious about replacing Labour they would not have formed the Coalition. If they hadn't, it is possible they would have replaced Labour by now.

Unfortunately for them a huge chunk of their voters wanted that, rather than genuinely having their own identity, willing to cut a deal with whoever in order to get some of what they wanted (and then still more thought they'd cut a poor deal).

Speedy

kle4 said:

PlatoSaid said:

LDs winning here again twaddle.

It doesn't say that.

ThreeQuidder said:

I can't see what the LDs have to gain by running a strong campaign which can only help increase the government's majority.

What do they have to lose by running a strong campaign though, even if it contributes to increased government majority? The government's majority doesn't really affect them, they just need to present as having momentum, and having a good increase even if it means Labour loses helps them

That said, my gut reaction is strong campaign or not Labour's vote may hold up better than expected, so Tories being favourites may be wrong.

It's my sense as well.

The Tories should not be favourites there, Reed will not be the Labour candidate this time.

But who are going to be the candidates?
Whoever wins will only keep the seat until the next election, where under the new boundaries the Labour MP for Workington takes it over with a 14500 majority.

kle4

ThreeQuidder said:

tlg86 said:

@MJW - the problem is, the Lib Dems have never envisaged themselves as replacing Labour.

Certainly not any time recently. The "decapitation" tactic in 2005 was a strategic disaster.

True story, I spoke to a LD in early 2014 who was sure that within 10 years the LDs would eclipse Labour.

Now, some might now dare to hope under Corbyn that improbable reversal between the two parties would occur, but back then he was not even on the horizon as leadership material. Some people are really optimistic.

YellowSubmarine

In conclusion ( for now ) if I were running the Conservative campaign I'd start by realising it's a much tougher target than it looks. However the plausible path to victory is #1 Keeping it off County Council election day even if it means breaking the convention on writs being moved on the defending party. #2 Examine the populist anti labour wave in the Copeland BC area in the mayoral referendum and subsequent result. But this is FPTP not SV. The government record prevails in By-elections not a local council. #3 Work the huge differential turnouts between the rural and urban areas. #4 Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn. #5 Understand that a chunk of the Sellafield workforce acts like public sector voters because in all but name that's what they are. The Nuclear industry is a subsidy junky and the child of the big state.

Scott_P

YellowSubmarine said:

The Nuclear industry is a subsidy junky and the child of the big state.

@faisalislam: Copeland is home to Sellafield. Nuclear industry could see significant implications, if UK exits Euratom Treaty, alongside EU A50 trigger...

@faisalislam: - Sellafield trades and is regulated under the terms of the EU nuclear safety treaty, by the European Commission - ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publica…

@faisalislam: At the moment the Government is yet to confirm whether or not UK leaves Euratom - it might require separate parliamentary authority to A50

@faisalislam: Euratom -clear example of Brexit realities: not EU treaty, but enforced by Commission, disputes settled by ECJ. Does Brexit mean leaving?

tlg86

@YellowSubmarine - I think the thing that should worry the Tories the most is the hospital issue.

chestnut

It looks very possible that we will see a winner on less than 40% of the vote, possibly even 35%.

ydoethur

It is genuinely astonishing that Labour are not clear, red-hot, runaway, won't even take bets on it favourites;

1) The government is in chaos;

2) The seat and its predecessor have voted Labour at every election since 1931;

3) No second term government (or later) has gained a seat at a by-election since 1961 (and it lost that one but the candidate was ineligible so the Conservatives won it by default - other than that it has only happened once, at Brighouse in 1960, again under unusual circumstances where technically it was a junior coalition party that won it);

4) OK, it's not Liverpool Wavertree but it's not hyper-marginal either;

5) Local hospital services at risk of cuts gives Labour an easy score against the government.

That we are even talking about this as a possible Labour defeat is the most shocking indictment imaginable of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership - even if talk of a party with 9 MPs imminently replacing Labour seems a trifle hyperbolic. But if they lose, surely he has to go even if it doesn't lead May to find a pretext for an election.

Mortimer

Faisal still on the same old topic I see....yawn.

Mortimer

@ydoethur - these be astonishing times!

Sunil_Prasannan

Switzerland participates in Euratom as an associated state.

Essexit

Isn't 'Euratom' how a Yorkshireman sexes a male cat?

Sunil_Prasannan

Blackadder "Sense and Senility" on Yesterday Channel (Freeview 19) at 10.05 tonight.

isam

Mortimer said:

Faisal still on the same old topic I see....yawn.

The people that used to tell us how no one cared about the EU, and it didn't affect us, now talk about it endlessly!

Or endlessly copy n paste other people talking about it

Speedy

Meanwhile Trump selects Peter Navarro to head his National Trade Council, his personal opinions are these:

https://twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/811665284125884416

Pulpstar

I know Labour weren't very memorable in any of the previous by-elections, but they have never stood aside for the Lib Dems.

Tim Farron will be pounding the pavements of Copeland !

ReggieCide

ydoethur said:

It is genuinely astonishing that Labour are not clear, red-hot, runaway, won't even take bets on it favourites;

1) The government is in chaos;

2) The seat and its predecessor have voted Labour at every election since 1931;

3) No second term government (or later) has gained a seat at a by-election since 1961 (and it lost that one but the candidate was ineligible so the Conservatives won it by default - other than that it has only happened once, at Brighouse in 1960, again under unusual circumstances where technically it was a junior coalition party that won it);

4) OK, it's not Liverpool Wavertree but it's not hyper-marginal either;

5) Local hospital services at risk of cuts gives Labour an easy score against the government.

That we are even talking about this as a possible Labour defeat is the most shocking indictment imaginable of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership - even if talk of a party with 9 MPs imminently replacing Labour seems a trifle hyperbolic. But if they lose, surely he has to go even if it doesn't lead May to find a pretext for an election.

I don't see Corbyn going anywhere soon, whatever

brokenwheel

ThomasNashe said:

Essexit. Because there is likely to be a significant Lab-LD swing, which could easily hand the seat to the tories?

There is? Do the Lib Dems generally do well in former mining communities then? I would have thought they were better off going after Tory remoaners.

Tissue_Price

Speedy said:

Whoever wins will only keep the seat until the next election, where under the new boundaries the Labour MP for Workington takes it over with a 14500 majority.

They'd potentially be well placed to "chicken run", though, as would be their right with no seat.

kle4

brokenwheel said:

ThomasNashe said:

Essexit. Because there is likely to be a significant Lab-LD swing, which could easily hand the seat to the tories?

There is? Do the Lib Dems generally do well in former mining communities then? I would have thought they were better off going after Tory remoaners.

Well, if they can recover to where they were in 2010 and the Tories hold up about as well as 2015, Labour could be in trouble, a LD recovery more likely to come at Labour's expense and the Tories doing well nationally, if the polls are indeed correct. But if that is so likely as to make the Tories favourites is another matter,

Charles

YellowSubmarine said:

Question 1 about Copeland is why did Reed resign the day after recess started. It means Labour can't move the writ till the Commons comes back on 9th of January. Why did he force Labour to run a longer campaign and who does a longer campaign benefit ?

So he gets a salary for longer?

YellowSubmarine

@Brokenwheel Indeed. The last mine in the Cumberland coalfield shut in the mid 80's. But like Coal somethings run deep.

https://goo.gl/images/z6QFzq