politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which party REMAIN and LEAVE voters now say they will vote for
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Mr. Eagles, did you miss out the word 'Labour' there?
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????????????TheScreamingEagles said:If I'm reading the chart correctly with Leave voters are as doomed as the Bulgars at the battle of Kleidion
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Yup. Fixed now.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, did you miss out the word 'Labour' there?
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Snip0
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Nothing illustrates the creative death of the BBC better than the continued existence of that programme.Scott_P said:0 -
The party names, worldview and historical voter base are old hat I'm afraid.
Left/Right is dead.
The new divide – and the one that matters – is Open vs Closed.0 -
If the Referendum vote was approx 50:50 which it was, one could take the UKIP totals 24+0 = 24 and the LibDem totals 19+4 = 23 and divide each by 2, so UKIP 12%, LibDem 11.5%.0
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jobabob
which way round is that0 -
@Morris_Dancer It's probably more saleable than my idea for a religious Sci Fi Thriller based on the Council of Chalcedon. When Nestorian and Monophysite rivalries degenerate into a brutal Time War in the 31st Century Chalcedon Orthodoxy is agreed as a Time Armistice to restore stability. I think that may be too niche.0
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Doesn't sound much like Mrs May, though Boris and Gove as the shirtless hunks would probably be fitting, particularly in view of their enemity.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Submarine, that'll never sell.
You need a lonely teenage girl who's a very attractive outcast from society and who struggles to decide between two hot boyfriends (who, for plot reasons, are mostly shirtless) but who is somehow capable of destroying the tyrannical government despite centuries of unchallenged dystopia.0 -
Mr. Submarine, I suggested, as a better alternative to the proposed new Star Trek series, they set it a few decades after DS9, with the Alpha Quadrant in turmoil as rival factions are tearing the Federation apart.
Topical, *and* fits with the Star Trek universe.0 -
@jobabob Agreed. And I suspect Brexit will be an accelerant to how that divide widens, deepens and becomes more self aware and self confident on either side. How we contain the growing chasm with in one geographical space and one polis will be the challenge of the age. It will need at least radical devolution and constitutional reform.0
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The three-hundred-and-fifty million lieSandyRentool said:I know I am several days late with this offering. However:
# Last Brexit, we went with our hearts #
# And the very next day, Dave said "I'm away!" #
# This year, to save May from tears #
# She'll blame it on someone special #
(That special someone being Boris, if it all goes pear-shaped)
I knew it would catch my red brothers’ eyes
Tell me comrades, do you expect it?
Back luck to you, you ain’t gonna get it.0 -
SandyRentool said:
New despair:
"[Emily Thornberry] is now regarded as the favoured pro-Corbyn candidate to take over if the 67-year-old fails to restore the party’s fortunes and faces a renewed challenge to his leadership." (Guardian)
Merry fecking Christmas
Thorno has a nice voice – I could listen to her all day long0 -
You could have a denouement where the heroine, forced to sign a document admitting the righteousness of the tyrannical government, writes “Vi coactus” beside her name. This brings down the government, and reintroduces the ancien regime (the Faragists).foxinsoxuk said:
Doesn't sound much like Mrs May, though Boris and Gove as the shirtless hunks would probably be fitting, particularly in view of their enemity.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Submarine, that'll never sell.
You need a lonely teenage girl who's a very attractive outcast from society and who struggles to decide between two hot boyfriends (who, for plot reasons, are mostly shirtless) but who is somehow capable of destroying the tyrannical government despite centuries of unchallenged dystopia.0 -
The good news about the new Star Trek series is that no time travel is planned. Also, it is set before holodecks existed in the Star Trek universe, so that's another source of rubbish episodes eliminated. We can also hope for an absence of Ferengi, Talaxians and Dr Julian Bashir.0
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Looking at the chart pretty much reinforces my thoughts on voting intention. The laziness by some politicians that accept the premise that of the 52% that voted leave somehow should be treated as a monolithic block that will vote totally for the Conservatives for instance can now be safely discarded. It may also point to the possibility that the referendum can be ignored as the people who designed it failed to frame it with a guaranteed execution i.e. It was advisory only.
I have been thinking about the British Press/ media. If the British media want a successful Brexit why do they not launch an advertising campaign in for instance the German car making towns/ cities where exports to the UK provide a huge income and employment stating the best deal for Germany is a continuation of non- tariff trade in goods and services? Make the German people put pressure from the bottom upwards for a good deal that is for German benefit as well as British. I am using the Germans as an example but there must be other influential countries and industries that can be manipulated into giving the UK what it wants for Brexit.
I do believe the PM to be totally clueless on how to conduct Brexit. Soft power such as the British Media should be encouraged to finance advertising whether it is bill boards outside car plants or special newspapers put through doors across districts that export a lot to the UK. The British media and some extremely wealthy individuals wanted Brexit, they should now make an effort to get a good deal through direct action as the government is clearly failing.0 -
It's not set in the god-awful Abrams universe, is it?AlastairMeeks said:The good news about the new Star Trek series is that no time travel is planned. Also, it is set before holodecks existed in the Star Trek universe, so that's another source of rubbish episodes eliminated. We can also hope for an absence of Ferengi, Talaxians and Dr Julian Bashir.
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China seizes drone in South China Sea:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-38347221
Mr. Meeks, I've forgotten who the Talaxians are. An absence of Ferengi is no bad thing. Don't mind Bashir, his double act with O'Brien was quite good.
I'm tired of stupid prequel series. They should move things on.0 -
Mr. D, some people think it won't get off the ground at all.
I believe it's in the proper universe, set after Enterprise but before The Original Series.0 -
Chinese warship seizes US underwater drone in international waters
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/16/china-seizes-us-underwater-drone-south-china-sea
I wonder what The Donald is going to be tweeting?0 -
Is that in part of the South China Sea that they claim?Morris_Dancer said:China seizes drone in South China Sea:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-38347221
Mr. Meeks, I've forgotten who the Talaxians are. An absence of Ferengi is no bad thing. Don't mind Bashir, his double act with O'Brien was quite good.
I'm tired of stupid prequel series. They should move things on.
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Mr. D, I believe so.
Trump's reaction will be interesting.0 -
The Bulgars were buggered at Kleidon? The things you learn on PB ,,,TheScreamingEagles said:If I'm reading the chart correctly with Leave voters Labour are as doomed as the Bulgars at the battle of Kleidion
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Interesting that Remain voters - by a margin of 4:1 believe 'Immigration' was the key driver for Leave voters, rather than the 'racism/xenophobia' we are confidently assured was the primary motivator. Similarly 'misinformed' and 'stupidity' are also beaten 4:1.
So no, I don't think the country will fracture - as Remain voters by and large don't hold Leave voters in the contempt so often assumed on here....0 -
Mr. 43, the battle wasn't the bad part for them...0
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@RobD It seems it's set in the " Prime " Timeline not the " Kelvin " timeline. I'm delighted we're finally getting a gay character. It makes up for Wonder Woman being sacked as a UN Honory Ambassador.0
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I'm sure they are very chuffed that they hit their diversity quota.YellowSubmarine said:@RobD It seems it's set in the " Prime " Timeline not the " Kelvin " timeline. I'm delighted we're finally getting a gay character. It makes up for Wonder Woman being sacked as a UN Honory Ambassador.
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The major divide in attitude in the country is between people who live in the area they grew up in, and those who moved out.
The former don't like change, the latter do... and the latter see it as a virtue and think the former are a bit dim.
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Mr. Submarine, by the way, speaking of diversity, how're you getting along with Kingdom Asunder? I don't normally ask, but you did say a while ago it wasn't what you expected.
If you prefer to say privately that's cool, although I'm quite happy to hear praise or criticism in public.0 -
New strike, this time it's airport staff:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-383472830 -
@Morris_Dancer I'm only on 19% still. I'm always like this. I read several books at once in stops and starts. Now I've finished an audio book on the cuneiform " Ark Tablet " I'll try and speed up Kingdom Asunder.0
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@RobD Bah Humbug ! You'll be telling me you don't share the " Queer Reading " of Lynda Carter's transformation into Wonder Woman next !0
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@SkyNewsBreak: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs says H5N8 strain of avian flu confirmed in turkeys at a farm near Louth in Lincolnshire0
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Anyway with a bit of luck Mike Reid will rerelease " UKIP Calypso " to go head to head with the Jo Cox Charity Single next week for Christmas No 1. We can settle this thing without a second referendum.0
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Mr. Submarine, hope you like it (and the gay protagonist
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If anyone wants to earn a quick(ish) thousand pounds and has £100k to spare, there is https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.127041757 this market.
Should be paying out soon...0 -
Isam's point about geographic mobility and referendum voting is interesting. One wonders though if it's another way of indicating class divides.0
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UKIP Leavers and Lib Dem Remainers show up as most likely to believe the other side are stupid. Two cheeks, one posterior?
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Mr. Matt, African and European swallows come to mind...0
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I would love to see the breakdown of how these two sets of the population voted in the referendum. I guess you could work it out via the census maybe.matt said:Isam's point about geographic mobility and referendum voting is interesting. One wonders though if it's another way of indicating class divides.
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Imagine Theresa May playing Bullets and Bracelets with Boris Johnson and with her Lasso of Truth around Liam Fox. *Sighs*0
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I am not sure that it is evidence based. Grandpa fox is a fervent Brexiteer despite moving a dozen times in his life, including 4 years in France and 5 in the USA, while Fox jr has lived all his life in Leicester and is a fervent remainer.
Presumably in Scotland Remainers move no more than their English peers, and that many of those who have retired to the coast are Leavers.0 -
Hahahahafoxinsoxuk said:I am not sure that it is evidence based. Grandpa fox is a fervent Brexiteer despite moving a dozen times in his life, including 4 years in France and 5 in the USA, while Fox jr has lived all his life in Leicester and is a fervent remainer.
Presumably in Scotland Remainers move no more than their English peers, and that many of those who have retired to the coast are Leavers.
I really thought no one would pick someone they knew to disprove it! When will I learn??0 -
I've read somewhere that about 65% of the UK population lives within 30 miles of where they were born. That figure will cover significant churn like myself but with all the other demographic data we know have on Referendum voting I'd bet heavily geographical mobility predicates heavily your referendum choice.0
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More 'get on with it'
Who should activate article 50
The Prime Minister: 53
MP vote in Parliament: 34
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/g6tl7xbgun/InternalResults_161215_Article50_W.pdf0 -
People who were born outside London and moved there will be remainers to a man. More of a mixed picture on people who have moved between other places I'd guess.0
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So far H5N8 is not known to be bad for humans iirc. Fingers crossed.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs says H5N8 strain of avian flu confirmed in turkeys at a farm near Louth in Lincolnshire
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People who have taken advantage of FoM are, I suspect, more inclined to support FoM than those who haven'tPulpstar said:People who were born outside London and moved there will be remainers to a man. More of a mixed picture on people who have moved between other places I'd guess.
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@rottenborough I have a couple of previously owned Indian runner ducks now living on a farm in Kent. Hope they're ok !0
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On reasons for Leave, this sympathetic article is worth a read. It also sums up my view of the contradictions and ultimate futility of Brexit.0
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@Foxinsoxuk The Submarine Family was 100% Remain in the end. Though apart from me all working class, English costal dwellers who left school at 16. It's about propensity not being binary.0
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You still don't get it isam, when they do it, it's valid evidence, when we do it it's just useless anecdote and the bigger picture is in the academic studies by their favourite liberal.isam said:
Hahahahafoxinsoxuk said:I am not sure that it is evidence based. Grandpa fox is a fervent Brexiteer despite moving a dozen times in his life, including 4 years in France and 5 in the USA, while Fox jr has lived all his life in Leicester and is a fervent remainer.
Presumably in Scotland Remainers move no more than their English peers, and that many of those who have retired to the coast are Leavers.
I really thought no one would pick someone they knew to disprove it! When will I learn??0 -
You'll need to convince betfair to up your exposure limit too!Pulpstar said:If anyone wants to earn a quick(ish) thousand pounds and has £100k to spare, there is https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.127041757 this market.
Should be paying out soon...0 -
My Nan smoked 60 a day and lived to a 100, so smoking isn't bad for youMaxPB said:
You still don't get it isam, when they do it, it's valid evidence, when we do it it's just useless anecdote and the bigger picture is in the academic studies by their favourite liberal.isam said:
Hahahahafoxinsoxuk said:I am not sure that it is evidence based. Grandpa fox is a fervent Brexiteer despite moving a dozen times in his life, including 4 years in France and 5 in the USA, while Fox jr has lived all his life in Leicester and is a fervent remainer.
Presumably in Scotland Remainers move no more than their English peers, and that many of those who have retired to the coast are Leavers.
I really thought no one would pick someone they knew to disprove it! When will I learn??0 -
This is brilliant. Shippers has started a thread on twitter as to the most 'Thick of It' moment of the year. Pages of the stuff shows is what 2016 was like.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/8097992034971156480 -
Isam "My Nan smoked 60 a day and lived to a 100, so smoking isn't bad for you"
The best we can say is that smoking wasn't bad for your Nan.
Although, as a non-smoker, she could have lived to 112.....0 -
It is an interesting idea, but while there may be some correlation, it is probably a loose one. Forces personnel are famously mobile for example yet often Leavers.isam said:
Hahahahafoxinsoxuk said:I am not sure that it is evidence based. Grandpa fox is a fervent Brexiteer despite moving a dozen times in his life, including 4 years in France and 5 in the USA, while Fox jr has lived all his life in Leicester and is a fervent remainer.
Presumably in Scotland Remainers move no more than their English peers, and that many of those who have retired to the coast are Leavers.
I really thought no one would pick someone they knew to disprove it! When will I learn??0 -
Just read a very interesting pew report:http://www.people-press.org/2016/12/08/low-approval-of-trumps-transition-but-outlook-for-his-presidency-improves/
Very interesting to see how Americans perceive Trump in comparison to previous incoming Presidents. Also very interesting to see how many Americans see minorities as facing discrimination.0 -
OK, so what evidence do you have to support your assertion?isam said:
My Nan smoked 60 a day and lived to a 100, so smoking isn't bad for youMaxPB said:
You still don't get it isam, when they do it, it's valid evidence, when we do it it's just useless anecdote and the bigger picture is in the academic studies by their favourite liberal.isam said:
Hahahahafoxinsoxuk said:I am not sure that it is evidence based. Grandpa fox is a fervent Brexiteer despite moving a dozen times in his life, including 4 years in France and 5 in the USA, while Fox jr has lived all his life in Leicester and is a fervent remainer.
Presumably in Scotland Remainers move no more than their English peers, and that many of those who have retired to the coast are Leavers.
I really thought no one would pick someone they knew to disprove it! When will I learn??
My anecdote proves that it is not universally true, so you either must have some data or are making an unevidenced statement.
Or is your statement only anecdotal too?0 -
American have half the confidence that Trump will handle an international crisis well or use military force wisely, compared with George W! Make of that what you will:The_Apocalypse said:Just read a very interesting pew report:http://www.people-press.org/2016/12/08/low-approval-of-trumps-transition-but-outlook-for-his-presidency-improves/
Very interesting to see how Americans perceive Trump in comparison to previous incoming Presidents. Also very interesting to see how many Americans see minorities as facing discrimination.
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It was a joke, I made it up!foxinsoxuk said:
OK, so what evidence do you have to support your assertion?isam said:
My Nan smoked 60 a day and lived to a 100, so smoking isn't bad for youMaxPB said:
You still don't get it isam, when they do it, it's valid evidence, when we do it it's just useless anecdote and the bigger picture is in the academic studies by their favourite liberal.isam said:
Hahahahafoxinsoxuk said:I am not sure that it is evidence based. Grandpa fox is a fervent Brexiteer despite moving a dozen times in his life, including 4 years in France and 5 in the USA, while Fox jr has lived all his life in Leicester and is a fervent remainer.
Presumably in Scotland Remainers move no more than their English peers, and that many of those who have retired to the coast are Leavers.
I really thought no one would pick someone they knew to disprove it! When will I learn??
My anecdote proves that it is not universally true, so you either must have some data or are making an unevidenced statement.
Or is your statement only anecdotal too?0 -
Mr. 43, be useful to have figures for Obama too, for comparison.0
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In terms of likelihood to vote at a GE I reckon leavers more likely not to vote. So a straight 50 50 split may well be right. In lower turnout elections remain inclined voters more likely to turn out I reckonlogical_song said:If the Referendum vote was approx 50:50 which it was, one could take the UKIP totals 24+0 = 24 and the LibDem totals 19+4 = 23 and divide each by 2, so UKIP 12%, LibDem 11.5%.
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Generally Obama was very well regarded at the equivalent stage of his presidency.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 43, be useful to have figures for Obama too, for comparison.
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Mr. 43, I'm sure, but haven't experienced Obama's actual actions and policy towards foreign affairs the public may or may not view him favourably compared to Trump/George W Bush.0
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Except older people more likely to vote and did actually vote Leave in bigger numbers too.Pulpstar said:
In terms of likelihood to vote at a GE I reckon leavers more likely not to vote. So a straight 50 50 split may well be right. In lower turnout elections remain inclined voters more likely to turn out I reckonlogical_song said:If the Referendum vote was approx 50:50 which it was, one could take the UKIP totals 24+0 = 24 and the LibDem totals 19+4 = 23 and divide each by 2, so UKIP 12%, LibDem 11.5%.
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Unless the voters have enjoyed their first taste of blood (so to speak) with the Brexit vote.Pulpstar said:
In terms of likelihood to vote at a GE I reckon leavers more likely not to vote. So a straight 50 50 split may well be right. In lower turnout elections remain inclined voters more likely to turn out I reckonlogical_song said:If the Referendum vote was approx 50:50 which it was, one could take the UKIP totals 24+0 = 24 and the LibDem totals 19+4 = 23 and divide each by 2, so UKIP 12%, LibDem 11.5%.
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Anyway, time for me to be off.0
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Quite. Returning to George W. versus Trump. Did the American public get George W totally wrong and so Trump will be even worse? Or will Trump astonish them all with his unexpected wisdom?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 43, I'm sure, but haven't experienced Obama's actual actions and policy towards foreign affairs the public may or may not view him favourably compared to Trump/George W Bush.
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@morris_dancer
Jagger has simply proved himself to be an Essex lad at heart. (Pat on the back for those who figure out why)
@pulpstar
I grew up outside London and moved there but voted Leave. So neeearh!0 -
In the alt.right tradition of fake news?isam said:
It was a joke, I made it up!foxinsoxuk said:
OK, so what evidence do you have to support your assertion?isam said:
My Nan smoked 60 a day and lived to a 100, so smoking isn't bad for youMaxPB said:
You still don't get it isam, when they do it, it's valid evidence, when we do it it's just useless anecdote and the bigger picture is in the academic studies by their favourite liberal.isam said:
Hahahahafoxinsoxuk said:I am not sure that it is evidence based. Grandpa fox is a fervent Brexiteer despite moving a dozen times in his life, including 4 years in France and 5 in the USA, while Fox jr has lived all his life in Leicester and is a fervent remainer.
Presumably in Scotland Remainers move no more than their English peers, and that many of those who have retired to the coast are Leavers.
I really thought no one would pick someone they knew to disprove it! When will I learn??
My anecdote proves that it is not universally true, so you either must have some data or are making an unevidenced statement.
Or is your statement only anecdotal too?
;-)0 -
Recidivist
"Given we aren't in the Eurozone and the referendum didn't refer to it, how is any of that relevant? And don't you feel a bit selfish denying the rest of the continent your expertise?"
It's relevant because (1) the damage the Euro does to the Eurozone countries directly increases the UK payments to the EU. (2) It harms the UK economy to be tied to an albatross. (3) The Eurozone countries intend to call on EU institutions and non-Eurozone countries for any Eurozone crisis. (4) EU rules are increasingly being shaped to benefit the Eurozone.
Since I worked on the most recent OCA analysis for the Bundesbank, the Eurozone central banks are already aware of the problems. It's already been shared - at the highest level. Not that the politicians and EU bureaucracy pay any attention.
Perhaps you might illuminate the forum with your analysis?0 -
The figures for Obama are in the link, he had 70% + Americans approving of his cabinet picks, and his explanation of polices.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 43, be useful to have figures for Obama too, for comparison.
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Apologies if already posted, but this story is delicious in its irony - after 8 years of Obama's Hope and Change, Michelle says America lacks hope:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-383455160 -
Britain may have aircraft carriers without aircraft, but america has it's problems too:
https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/8097977884815564800 -
I see others can now quote, but my quote button is missing. Is this still being fixed? Odd that some people can quote and others cannot.0
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You can't quote on the main website of PB, you have to go either in the Discussions part of the website or try it manually by inserting:MTimT said:I see others can now quote, but my quote button is missing. Is this still being fixed? Odd that some people can quote and others cannot.
<//blockquote class="Quote" rel="Name of Person you Respond goes here">What he wrote goes here<///blockquote> Your reply goes here.
And remove two // from the blockquotes.0 -
And what do you propose they do?Cynosarges said:Since I worked on the most recent OCA analysis for the Bundesbank, the Eurozone central banks are already aware of the problems. It's already been shared - at the highest level. Not that the politicians and EU bureaucracy pay any attention.
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I think I was right to be a little skeptical of the most far reaching claims of the alleged russian hacking hyperbole:
https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/809608826324484098
https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/809610056878751744
There is a lot of hearsay but little in writing.0 -
williamgless
"If you go back to the debates on OCAs when the Euro was created, the killer argument on the part of the sceptics was that there isn't enough labour mobility in Europe compared with the USA!"
Which was, and is, true. Using US states as approximations to EU contries, we can do a rule of thumb comparison. The most recent US census reports annual migration between census regions of 1.5% of population. Annual migration between states within a census region, 1.3% of population, giving an annual inter-state migration rate of 2.8%. From Eurostat 2014 data, member countries report immigration from other EU members as a grand total of 1.32 million. Given an EU population of 500 million, this gives an annual migration rate of 0.26% - less than 10% of the US inter-state migration.0 -
@ Speedy
Thanks0 -
Because they're really cheap to make. Studio set costs a few thousand, maybe a couple of grand a day for the host. Guest comedians are pretty cheap because they do TV for the profile, actors or singers are usually free if they're promoting something.Speedy said:0 -
Yet there are over 3 million EU citizens in the UK alone.Cynosarges said:From Eurostat 2014 data, member countries report immigration from other EU members as a grand total of 1.32 million. Given an EU population of 500 million, this gives an annual migration rate of 0.26% - less than 10% of the US inter-state migration.
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What is McLuskey up to?
I think it's just trying to be re-elected, but maybe it's more.
What do you think the chances of the following new parties emerging in 2017 are? My guesses in brackets
Farage-ites (40%)
Splinter Labour (50%)
Splinter LD (25%)
Splinter Tory (5%)
Unionites (5%)
Blairites (10% - this is a subset of the Splinter Labour)
So maybe up to five new political parties..! I actually do think that 'at least one' is odds on.
My conclusion from all this is that Tory most seats is nailed on. I'm not actually betting that way though. (Partly an economic hedge, and partly because I have some doubts about the above)0 -
Annual, not lifetime to date. Plus, there are only 2.1m working, the rest are dependents or inactive.williamglenn said:
Yet there are over 3 million EU citizens in the UK alone.Cynosarges said:From Eurostat 2014 data, member countries report immigration from other EU members as a grand total of 1.32 million. Given an EU population of 500 million, this gives an annual migration rate of 0.26% - less than 10% of the US inter-state migration.
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Possibly already posted, but the Swiss have settled with the EU on a sort of free movement - you have to advertise your job locally first, but after that, go ahead.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/16/switzerland-u-turn-quotas-on-eu-workers-immigration0 -
"I understand that during the referendum campaign on the streets of Boston, Thurrock and Sunderland you could hear discussions of little other than optimal currency areas. At least, that's what all the references to Breaking Point must have been about."
In many parts of the country there were many different arguments. In Cornwall, the reclaiming of UK fishing grounds was important. In Cambridgeshire, the numbers of pupils whose native language was not English was important. In Northern Ireland, EU subsidies were important. However, after the vote, 48% of the country seems to rely on a single argument "the others were stupid so their vote shouldn't count". So why shouldn't I challenge the remainers claim to intelligence, and ask them to demonstrate their intelligence? None of the remainers on this forum seem up to my challenge.0 -
Sorry the Nan 100 a day was a joke, the assertion about people who live in their family hometown vs those who left, and the differing attitudes they have is just based on what I have observed of life having done both.foxinsoxuk said:
In the alt.right tradition of fake news?isam said:
It was a joke, I made it up!foxinsoxuk said:
OK, so what evidence do you have to support your assertion?isam said:
My Nan smoked 60 a day and lived to a 100, so smoking isn't bad for youMaxPB said:
You still don't get it isam, when they do it, it's valid evidence, when we do it it's just useless anecdote and the bigger picture is in the academic studies by their favourite liberal.isam said:
Hahahahafoxinsoxuk said:I am not sure that it is evidence based. Grandpa fox is a fervent Brexiteer despite moving a dozen times in his life, including 4 years in France and 5 in the USA, while Fox jr has lived all his life in Leicester and is a fervent remainer.
Presumably in Scotland Remainers move no more than their English peers, and that many of those who have retired to the coast are Leavers.
I really thought no one would pick someone they knew to disprove it! When will I learn??
My anecdote proves that it is not universally true, so you either must have some data or are making an unevidenced statement.
Or is your statement only anecdotal too?
;-)
Maybe its complete nonsense, I would like to see data though on how the two groups voted in the ref though... the fact that big cities voted for Remain and the suburbs/countryside voted Leave seems to back up what I say I think.
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Patrick
Thanks for the gracious welcome.0 -
NP I think ultimately May will aim for a version of that with a job offer needed to come to the UK0
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Or simply click on the timestamp on the post to which you want to reply. It takes you to vanillaforums and the quote button.MTimT said:@ Speedy
Thanks
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FF43 I expect the Democrats will have a very good chance of making significant gains in the 2018 mid-terms and maybe even taking the House, Republicans are unlikely to be as motivated and Democrats will be very motivated0
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I am interested as an idea, but there are lots of confounding factors. Age, Education, social class, occupation (doctors and soldiers move about, farmers less so) etc.isam said:
Sorry the Nan 100 a day was a joke, the assertion about people who live in their family hometown vs those who left, and the differing attitudes they have is just based on what I have observed of life having done both.foxinsoxuk said:
In the alt.right tradition of fake news?isam said:
It was a joke, I made it up!foxinsoxuk said:
OK, so what evidence do you have to support your assertion?isam said:
My Nan smoked 60 a day and lived to a 100, so smoking isn't bad for youMaxPB said:
You still don't get it isam, when they do it, it's valid evidence, when we do it it's just useless anecdote and the bigger picture is in the academic studies by their favourite liberal.isam said:
Hahahahafoxinsoxuk said:I am not sure that it is evidence based. Grandpa fox is a fervent Brexiteer despite moving a dozen times in his life, including 4 years in France and 5 in the USA, while Fox jr has lived all his life in Leicester and is a fervent remainer.
Presumably in Scotland Remainers move no more than their English peers, and that many of those who have retired to the coast are Leavers.
I really thought no one would pick someone they knew to disprove it! When will I learn??
My anecdote proves that it is not universally true, so you either must have some data or are making an unevidenced statement.
Or is your statement only anecdotal too?
;-)
Maybe its complete nonsense, I would like to see data though on how the two groups voted in the ref though... the fact that big cities voted for Remain and the suburbs/countryside voted Leave seems to back up what I say I think.
Disentangling the correlated variables is tricky. Interesting, at least to me, as my work in epidemiology of disease risk factors is part of how I came to this site. I like stats, spreadsheets and inductive reasoning.0 -
Looking at their political instincts I think not:HYUFD said:FF43 I expect the Democrats will have a very good chance of making significant gains in the 2018 mid-terms and maybe even taking the House, Republicans are unlikely to be as motivated and Democrats will be very motivated
https://twitter.com/nypmetro/status/809841504843866114
Nothing worse than killing Bambi just before Christmas.0 -
@ Foxinsokuk "I like stats, spreadsheets and inductive reasoning."
Have you read the Black Swan by Nasim Taleb? Plenty of good health warnings about inductive reasoning based on historical evidence.
In biosafety and biosecurity (which includes epidemiology re outbreak detection, diagnosis, attribution, containment, treatment and recovery) and in accident/outbreak investigation we use a lot of inductive reasoning, but knowing that neither the stats nor the reasoning can prove anything, provide any 'truths', and certainly not 'THE truth'. Very good for potential explanations and increased understanding of the system, though.0 -
Di Blasio is not even in Congress, Pelosi however knows how to win against an unpopular incumbent president as she did in 2006 when the Democrats gained the House0
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One overlapping factor, I reckon, is university education. Many people leave their hometown to go to Uni, and then move to a City to work. So the Uni Education and the "emigration" factors could be double counted as people more likely to vote Remain.foxinsoxuk said:
I am interested as an idea, but there are lots of confounding factors. Age, Education, social class, occupation (doctors and soldiers move about, farmers less so) etc.isam said:
Sorry the Nan 100 a day was a joke, the assertion about people who live in their family hometown vs those who left, and the differing attitudes they have is just based on what I have observed of life having done both.foxinsoxuk said:
In the alt.right tradition of fake news?isam said:
It was a joke, I made it up!foxinsoxuk said:
OK, so what evidence do you have to support your assertion?isam said:
My Nan smoked 60 a day and lived to a 100, so smoking isn't bad for youMaxPB said:
You still don't get it isam, when they do it, it's valid evidence, when we do it it's just useless anecdote and the bigger picture is in the academic studies by their favourite liberal.isam said:
Hahahahafoxinsoxuk said:I am not sure that it
I really thought no one would pick someone they knew to disprove it! When will I learn??
My anecdote proves that it is not universally true, so you either must have some data or are making an unevidenced statement.
Or is your statement only anecdotal too?
;-)
Maybe its complete nonsense, I would like to see data though on how the two groups voted in the ref though... the fact that big cities voted for Remain and the suburbs/countryside voted Leave seems to back up what I say I think.
Disentangling the correlated variables is tricky. Interesting, at least to me, as my work in epidemiology of disease risk factors is part of how I came to this site. I like stats, spreadsheets and inductive reasoning.
I can understand why people of both camps would feel/vote the way the do (if my assertion holds). In fact I think it would be very difficult to move to a new area that you have no roots in and care if the local family run shop or pub shuts down, or a park is closed to build flats, at least until you have been there 4-5 years, where as in a town you lived in your whole life, that may make you quite upset. My only gripe really is that the former have so little empathy for the latter.0
