"Given we aren't in the Eurozone and the referendum didn't refer to it, how is any of that relevant? And don't you feel a bit selfish denying the rest of the continent your expertise?"
It's relevant because (1) the damage the Euro does to the Eurozone countries directly increases the UK payments to the EU. (2) It harms the UK economy to be tied to an albatross. (3) The Eurozone countries intend to call on EU institutions and non-Eurozone countries for any Eurozone crisis. (4) EU rules are increasingly being shaped to benefit the Eurozone.
Since I worked on the most recent OCA analysis for the Bundesbank, the Eurozone central banks are already aware of the problems. It's already been shared - at the highest level. Not that the politicians and EU bureaucracy pay any attention.
Perhaps you might illuminate the forum with your analysis?
My analysis would be if you are voting in a referendum on an issue that will affect the future of the country for maybe 30 years you don't want to base it on matters of short term bean counting.
@ Foxinsokuk "I like stats, spreadsheets and inductive reasoning."
Have you read the Black Swan by Nasim Taleb? Plenty of good health warnings about inductive reasoning based on historical evidence.
In biosafety and biosecurity (which includes epidemiology re outbreak detection, diagnosis, attribution, containment, treatment and recovery) and in accident/outbreak investigation we use a lot of inductive reasoning, but knowing that neither the stats nor the reasoning can prove anything, provide any 'truths', and certainly not 'THE truth'. Very good for potential explanations and increased understanding of the system, though.
Epidemiology is all about stats and probability, rarely certainty! a bit like betting...
@HYUFD It is a long while until 2018, and Trump could well implode the GOP by then. But if he does not, I am not at all sanguine about the Dems' prospects.
Pelosi is not as strong now as she was then, and their progress in the House was more down to Rahm Emanuel's efforts to recruit moderate candidates than Pelosi's actions (her strength is in raising money and controlling the House Dem caucus rather than electoral aspects).
In 2006, the party was still Bill Clinton's party, albeit one watered down by Gore and Kerry. That is no longer the case. The party has moved a lot to the left, and has become the party of minorities and pressure groups. This identity politics has lost it white working class men, and threatens to lose it pretty much the entire white vote save the most liberal. That is not a strategy for winning back the House, particularly when there will not be any further redistricting until after 2020 and particularly when the vast majority of the Democrats' own postmortems of 2016 refuse to accept that they were wrong (stupid voters, Russians, Comey - blame anyone but themselves) or that an identity politics strategy is wrong (Hillary lost because she's a woman, not because she was as awful a candidate as Trump, but with the added impediment of being an insider).
I really thought no one would pick someone they knew to disprove it! When will I learn??
You still don't get it isam, when they do it, it's valid evidence, when we do it it's just useless anecdote and the bigger picture is in the academic studies by their favourite liberal.
My Nan smoked 60 a day and lived to a 100, so smoking isn't bad for you
OK, so what evidence do you have to support your assertion?
It was a joke, I made it up!
In the alt.right tradition of fake news?
;-)
Sorry the Nan 100 a day was a joke, the assertion about people who live in their family hometown vs those who left, and the differing attitudes they have is just based on what I have observed of life having done both.
Maybe its complete nonsense, I would like to see data though on how the two groups voted in the ref though... the fact that big cities voted for Remain and the suburbs/countryside voted Leave seems to back up what I say I think.
I am interested as an idea, but there are lots of confounding factors. Age, Education, social class, occupation (doctors and soldiers move about, farmers less so) etc.
Disentangling the correlated variables is tricky. Interesting, at least to me, as my work in epidemiology of disease risk factors is part of how I came to this site. I like stats, spreadsheets and inductive reasoning.
One overlapping factor, I reckon, is university education. Many people leave their hometown to go to Uni, and then move to a City to work. So the Uni Education and the "emigration" factors could be double counted as people more likely to vote Remain.
I can understand why people of both camps would feel/vote the way the do (if my assertion holds). In fact I think it would be very difficult to move to a new area that you have no roots in and care if the local family run shop or pub shuts down, or a park is closed to build flats, at least until you have been there 4-5 years, where as in a town you lived in your whole life, that may make you quite upset. My only gripe really is that the former have so little empathy for the latter.
I have moved a lot in my life, but have been in Leicester for the last 25 years, and very settled. A fair amount has changed, but by and large the changes here are for the better.
People tend to focus more on what they feel that they have lost, and take for granted what they have gained.
Di Blasio is not even in Congress, Pelosi however knows how to win against an unpopular incumbent president as she did in 2006 when the Democrats gained the House
You are missing the mark, it's all about messaging. So far the Democrats are in the process of infighting, killing Bambi, and saying that they didn't actually lose the Presidential election.
This is not a winning formula.
In 2006 the Dems had the mess of 2 wars and an already ailing economy, plus multiple GOP scandals including among others this:
@ foxinsokuk I know. And so long as that is explicitly understood, it is very useful. One of the principle theories of accident causation is called the epidemiological model.
@isam Sorry the Nan 100 a day was a joke, the assertion about people who live in their family hometown vs those who left, and the differing attitudes they have is just based on what I have observed of life having done both.
Maybe its complete nonsense, I would like to see data though on how the two groups voted in the ref though... the fact that big cities voted for Remain and the suburbs/countryside voted Leave seems to back up what I say I think
Just to point out that one of the biggest cities in this country voted leave(Bradford) proud of that fact ;-)
MTimT The incumbent president has lost seats in every midterm House election in their first term since WW2 with the exception of 2002 which was after 9/11. Reagan lost 26 seats in 1982, Clinton 54 seats in 1994 and Obama 63 seats in 2010, Pelosi needs 24 seats gained for a majority and Trump is already significantly less popular than those 3 presidents when they entered the office.
Pelosi lost white men even in 2006 and there is little enthusiasm for Ryan amongst the Trump base, given the inevitable compromises Ryan will produce over the next few years I doubt they will have much enthusiasm for him then. Democrats however are fiercely anti Trump and far more likely to vote than they were in 2014 or even 2016 given their lack of enthusiasm for Hillary. Trump is already pursuing a corporate agenda, diluting plans for the wall etc while pursuing deregulatory policies on Wall Street which will fire up the Democratic base and do little to fire up Trumpers and of course opposition parties almost never win mid-term elections through their platform, they are almost always a vote of protest against the party of the incumbent in the White House. Mid term elections are all about firing up the base and getting them out to vote given they have half the turnout of the general election and liberals and minorities will certainly be fired up in 2018, the GOP base rather less so.
The 2020 presidential election may still favour Trump, especially against Warren but I could certainly see Pelosi beating Ryan in 2018, she did make gains in 2016, albeit small ones
@ HYUFD That is a view. But the House district map is far less friendly to the Dems than it has ever been at any point in history. Such a big swing to the Dems is far harder to achieve now than it was in the past.
I know you place very high stock in the predictive power of historical data (far more than I do), but if there were ever a case where the warning "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance", then I think this is it.
2018 is still 2 years away and presidents who come in with all the power almost always see big swings away to them as happened to IKE in 1954, Carter in 1978, Clinton in 1994 and Obama in 2010 as voters move towards divided government again.
In 2000 and 2012 the key was charisma which Dubya and Obama had and Gore and Romney did not.
TimT If the mood is for a rebalancing in 2018 the Democrats will take the House however the district map looks and of course while much of the South is gerrymandered towards the GOP some states like Maryland are gerrymandered towards the Democrats
I've been following the Zumwalt mess for some time. It'll be a classic example of how not to run a project. They wanted 30-odd of these destroyers, and they'll now make only three.
MTimT:" I know you place very high stock in the predictive power of historical data (far more than I do), but if there were ever a case where the warning "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance", then I think this is it."
Especially since many Middle class (in a British sense) white voters prbably didn't vote Trump/GOP because they thought he would sit on the nuclear button. If he turns out to be not crazy this might be the "low" point for the GOP with these voters.
@isam Sorry the Nan 100 a day was a joke, the assertion about people who live in their family hometown vs those who left, and the differing attitudes they have is just based on what I have observed of life having done both.
Maybe its complete nonsense, I would like to see data though on how the two groups voted in the ref though... the fact that big cities voted for Remain and the suburbs/countryside voted Leave seems to back up what I say I think
Just to point out that one of the biggest cities in this country voted leave(Bradford) proud of that fact ;-)
The propensity of a city in the referendum is a pretty good predictor of its place in the desirability as a place to live. Of the top 10 cities for Remain, I think I could quite happily live in all of them.
The stats above and many before that show that the vulnerability of the Labour vote in the North is overblown. The WWC vote often referred to had already flown the nest and well before GE2015. The damage has already been done.
Labour voters voted 2:1 for REMAIN in June. The ratio today is even more for Remain as some more Labour Leave voters have left. The question is where they have left from.
Nunu If Trump pursues Wall Street deregulatory policies and moves slowly on the Wall it will be Democrats who will be motivated to turnout not Republicans, as it is a midterm election the fact that Trump has not started WW3 will be of little reference, though his cosying up to Putin may have some impact
I've been following the Zumwalt mess for some time. It'll be a classic example of how not to run a project. They wanted 30-odd of these destroyers, and they'll now make only three.
Turns out I'm now an old fart. Had a turn at the lane when we scored our third on weds and now whilst at the o2 I'd rather come out to read pb than stay inside with miss scrap and the 1975. I'll be discussing the merits of voting systems at this rate.
For all you cricket fans here is the ultimate story. In an under 19 women's match in South Africa a team scored 169 in 20 overs - but Sharia-Lee Swart scored 160, there were 9 extras and all the other players scored 0.
"Dr Phipps found that participants believed the university’s focus on finance and academic achievement was “to the detriment of staff wellbeing or student welfare” "
How dare the university focus on academic achievement!
I've been following the Zumwalt mess for some time. It'll be a classic example of how not to run a project. They wanted 30-odd of these destroyers, and they'll now make only three.
Britain might never get aircraft for its carriers if Trump cancels the F35 - though the USAF would have an even bigger problem.
Allegedly that ammunition has half the range, meaning that the ship would have to get within range of the enemy before firing.
I wonder if they can use a mixture; both cheaper short-range and more expensive long-range? Or do the guns require modifying according to the type ...
As for the F35; if it was cancelled it would be the US Marines who would really be hurt. The US Navy and AF have alternatives; the Marines do not (the Osprey is not an alternative).
I've been following the Zumwalt mess for some time. It'll be a classic example of how not to run a project. They wanted 30-odd of these destroyers, and they'll now make only three.
Britain might never get aircraft for its carriers if Trump cancels the F35 - though the USAF would have an even bigger problem.
The F35 may be something of a fu (blame the USMC for that).but Trump''s penchant for delivering his thoughts in the way he does makes me think, slightly cynically, that members of his family have coincidentally shorted Lockheed stock.
So why shouldn't I challenge the remainers claim to intelligence, and ask them to demonstrate their intelligence? None of the remainers on this forum seem up to my challenge.
I know. It must be terrible living on the same planet as so many stupid people. I don't know how you stand it, with your massive brain and all. I tell you what: post a few more posts telling people that you are very very smart and everybody else is very very dumb. That'll convince everybody.
"Dr Phipps found that participants believed the university’s focus on finance and academic achievement was “to the detriment of staff wellbeing or student welfare” "
How dare the university focus on academic achievement!
So ridiculous that the report is prominently posted on Imperial's own website. Talk to a few current undergraduates, and you might form a different opinion.
Fairly devastating observation by James Fallows over at the Atlantic:
https://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2016/12/this-is-what-the-resistance-sounds-like/510899/ Again, I find Perry more appealing as a person than some of the other characters now coming onto the national stage. But it is somehow an appropriate metaphor of our era that, if he is nominated and confirmed, this could be the sequence of U.S. Secretaries of Energy:
2009-2013, Steven Chu, winner of the Nobel prize in physics, professor of physics at UC Berkeley, director of Lawrence Berkeley National Lab; 2013-2017, Ernest Moniz, professor of nuclear physics at MIT, former under secretary of Energy; 2017- , Rick Perry, the man who couldn’t remember the department’s name...
They can afford it now. But after they've fixed it, improved it, and made it better, that ammo will cost ten times as much...
Cynic. :-) Probably best to regard the Zumwalt as a technology demonstrator/ prototype.
I do think the Zumwalt is technically interesting. Perhaps much of the Navy's resistance, and there's plenty of it, relates to it loooing much like a Civil War monitor and not having a WW2 silhouette.
Fairly devastating observation by James Fallows over at the Atlantic:
https://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2016/12/this-is-what-the-resistance-sounds-like/510899/ Again, I find Perry more appealing as a person than some of the other characters now coming onto the national stage. But it is somehow an appropriate metaphor of our era that, if he is nominated and confirmed, this could be the sequence of U.S. Secretaries of Energy:
2009-2013, Steven Chu, winner of the Nobel prize in physics, professor of physics at UC Berkeley, director of Lawrence Berkeley National Lab; 2013-2017, Ernest Moniz, professor of nuclear physics at MIT, former under secretary of Energy; 2017- , Rick Perry, the man who couldn’t remember the department’s name...
Why did Chu and Moniz achieve while Secretary!
FAOD that isn't an, experts whatever comment. More that background doesn't always equal either appropriateness or achievement.
@ Matt. Indeed, in my observations to date, hard science scientists, along with medical physicians, do not as a group overly impress either as administrators nor as policy wonks. And I have been either at the heart or the periphery of science policy all my working life, coming up 37 years.
My reservations about Perry have nothing to do with him not being a scientist. Fallows observation is in no way 'devastating' in and of itself. The Oppenheimers of this world are a very, very rare breed.
@ Matt. Indeed, in my observations to date, hard science scientists, along with medical physicians, do not as a group overly impress either as administrators nor as policy wonks. And I have been either at the heart or the periphery of science policy all my working life, coming up 37 years.
My reservations about Perry have nothing to do with him not being a scientist. Fallows observation is in no way 'devastating' in and of itself. The Oppenheimers of this world are a very, very rare breed.
I'm in no way saying that Perry is appropriate. Just that claiming he is inappropriate because of lack of a science degree doesn't really cut it.
Probably best to regard the Zumwalt as a technology demonstrator/ prototype.
Well, yes. It certainly demonstrates something...
Joking aside, I do like the new American ships: not just the Zumwalt but also the Independence-class LCS's: imaginative designs that look wicked cool. Problem is, they're not really scary. And at a time when the Russians are upgunning with some seriously scary kit (nuclear-tipped long-range high speed torpedo? Bye-bye Portsmouth!), I'm not sure we can indulge this
"Dr Phipps found that participants believed the university’s focus on finance and academic achievement was “to the detriment of staff wellbeing or student welfare” "
How dare the university focus on academic achievement!
Very close friend of mine went to Imperial. She said culture could be very sexist.
Also teaching was of a very poor standard... One of the academics admitted he would hide from students to avoid the office hours when he was supposed to help them with problem sets.
Basically there can be a tension between good teaching and doing world class research.
Comments
I think you have over-estimated the chance of any split happening. Any splinter party winning >0 seats at the next election I would say 4/1.
Pelosi is not as strong now as she was then, and their progress in the House was more down to Rahm Emanuel's efforts to recruit moderate candidates than Pelosi's actions (her strength is in raising money and controlling the House Dem caucus rather than electoral aspects).
In 2006, the party was still Bill Clinton's party, albeit one watered down by Gore and Kerry. That is no longer the case. The party has moved a lot to the left, and has become the party of minorities and pressure groups. This identity politics has lost it white working class men, and threatens to lose it pretty much the entire white vote save the most liberal. That is not a strategy for winning back the House, particularly when there will not be any further redistricting until after 2020 and particularly when the vast majority of the Democrats' own postmortems of 2016 refuse to accept that they were wrong (stupid voters, Russians, Comey - blame anyone but themselves) or that an identity politics strategy is wrong (Hillary lost because she's a woman, not because she was as awful a candidate as Trump, but with the added impediment of being an insider).
People tend to focus more on what they feel that they have lost, and take for granted what they have gained.
So far the Democrats are in the process of infighting, killing Bambi, and saying that they didn't actually lose the Presidential election.
This is not a winning formula.
In 2006 the Dems had the mess of 2 wars and an already ailing economy, plus multiple GOP scandals including among others this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Foley_scandal
It was a foregone conclusion they would have won big time in 2006, not so (yet) for 2018.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/199679/satisfaction-direction-steady-historically-low.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles
When bellow 40%, only 1 time has the party in power won in either a Presidential election or a Mid-Term one (Obama 2012).
So Trump and the GOP should try to satisfy the public in order to maintain their strengh.
By the way how the heck did Al Gore lost in 2000 looking at this chart ?
Sorry the Nan 100 a day was a joke, the assertion about people who live in their family hometown vs those who left, and the differing attitudes they have is just based on what I have observed of life having done both.
Maybe its complete nonsense, I would like to see data though on how the two groups voted in the ref though... the fact that big cities voted for Remain and the suburbs/countryside voted Leave seems to back up what I say I think
Just to point out that one of the biggest cities in this country voted leave(Bradford) proud of that fact ;-)
Pelosi lost white men even in 2006 and there is little enthusiasm for Ryan amongst the Trump base, given the inevitable compromises Ryan will produce over the next few years I doubt they will have much enthusiasm for him then. Democrats however are fiercely anti Trump and far more likely to vote than they were in 2014 or even 2016 given their lack of enthusiasm for Hillary. Trump is already pursuing a corporate agenda, diluting plans for the wall etc while pursuing deregulatory policies on Wall Street which will fire up the Democratic base and do little to fire up Trumpers and of course opposition parties almost never win mid-term elections through their platform, they are almost always a vote of protest against the party of the incumbent in the White House. Mid term elections are all about firing up the base and getting them out to vote given they have half the turnout of the general election and liberals and minorities will certainly be fired up in 2018, the GOP base rather less so.
The 2020 presidential election may still favour Trump, especially against Warren but I could certainly see Pelosi beating Ryan in 2018, she did make gains in 2016, albeit small ones
I know you place very high stock in the predictive power of historical data (far more than I do), but if there were ever a case where the warning "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance", then I think this is it.
In 2000 and 2012 the key was charisma which Dubya and Obama had and Gore and Romney did not.
Still not as bad as the B2 program though.
Especially since many Middle class (in a British sense) white voters prbably didn't vote Trump/GOP because they thought he would sit on the nuclear button. If he turns out to be not crazy this might be the "low" point for the GOP with these voters.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.indy100.com/article/the-uks-10-most-proremain-cities-that-now-need-their-own-independence-referendum--bJgiFKHhVW&ved=0ahUKEwjLic38zfnQAhVKDsAKHaEoB2IQFggdMAE&usg=AFQjCNFgPdYXecOO7uxif29oWZJWkaBIRw&sig2=rZMp9-2ayAICWfCtpd4Bpw
Labour voters voted 2:1 for REMAIN in June. The ratio today is even more for Remain as some more Labour Leave voters have left. The question is where they have left from.
http://www.independent.co.uk/student/news/imperial-college-london-accused-ingrained-misogyny-female-students-sexism-humiliated-a7474166.html
See all that leave red,it's like all of England is covered with it ;-)
http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a24310/zumwalt-destroyer-excalibur-ammunition/
Britain might never get aircraft for its carriers if Trump cancels the F35 - though the USAF would have an even bigger problem.
The unions are seeking direct confrontation and it seems all planned to hit Christmas travel
"Dr Phipps found that participants believed the university’s focus on finance and academic achievement was “to the detriment of staff wellbeing or student welfare” "
How dare the university focus on academic achievement!
I wonder if they can use a mixture; both cheaper short-range and more expensive long-range? Or do the guns require modifying according to the type ...
As for the F35; if it was cancelled it would be the US Marines who would really be hurt. The US Navy and AF have alternatives; the Marines do not (the Osprey is not an alternative).
But in the meantime, the Yanks can use our ships for some play:
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/us-marine-f-35b-fighter-jet-deployment-onboard-british-warship-made-official
(I suppose that could be an 'and' instead of an 'or')
Also not sure how missing the quote button is having an effect
Anyway going to sign off now but the compliments of the season to you and your family
GIVE US BACK OUR "QUOTE" BUTTON!
Talk to a few current undergraduates, and you might form a different opinion.
Probably best to regard the Zumwalt as a technology demonstrator/ prototype.
https://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2016/12/this-is-what-the-resistance-sounds-like/510899/
Again, I find Perry more appealing as a person than some of the other characters now coming onto the national stage. But it is somehow an appropriate metaphor of our era that, if he is nominated and confirmed, this could be the sequence of U.S. Secretaries of Energy:
2009-2013, Steven Chu, winner of the Nobel prize in physics, professor of physics at UC Berkeley, director of Lawrence Berkeley National Lab;
2013-2017, Ernest Moniz, professor of nuclear physics at MIT, former under secretary of Energy;
2017- , Rick Perry, the man who couldn’t remember the department’s name...
FAOD that isn't an, experts whatever comment. More that background doesn't always equal either appropriateness or achievement.
My reservations about Perry have nothing to do with him not being a scientist. Fallows observation is in no way 'devastating' in and of itself. The Oppenheimers of this world are a very, very rare breed.
Joking aside, I do like the new American ships: not just the Zumwalt but also the Independence-class LCS's: imaginative designs that look wicked cool. Problem is, they're not really scary. And at a time when the Russians are upgunning with some seriously scary kit (nuclear-tipped long-range high speed torpedo? Bye-bye Portsmouth!), I'm not sure we can indulge this
You can use the quote button there.
Also teaching was of a very poor standard... One of the academics admitted he would hide from students to avoid the office hours when he was supposed to help them with problem sets.
Basically there can be a tension between good teaching and doing world class research.