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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov adds to Labour woes with the worst poll since 2009

SystemSystem Posts: 12,563
edited December 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov adds to Labour woes with the worst poll since 2009

Given that it is barely three months since Corbyn was re-elected with a huge majority it is hard to see what the party can do. They are stuck with a leader who appears to repel voters and with him in place there appears no obvious way back.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    First
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Second like everyone else!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The sad thing is that Labour's leadership really does not care. And if they don't, why should anyone else?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,576
    edited December 2016
    Fourth like Labour...Oppan Sleaford style
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    and merry Xmas Mrs May. Labour's figures are falling towards those that I feel they really are at . on or about 20 and it'll be about right.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,097
    SouthamObserver said:

    The sad thing is that Labour's leadership really does not care. And if they don't, why should anyone else?

    Suppose that they did, but what would they Do?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,681
    This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,080
    New thread curse:
    justin124 said:

    I don't believe the omens for Nutall are good if this is the best that UKIP can do under what should be optimum circumstances for them.


    In some ways Sleaford was a mirror image of Richmond Park and that is what UKIP were saying 6 days ago (see quotes & link below). They also had the advantage of not fighting Richmond Park and could concentrate on Sleaford. And what happened, they dropped 2.2%, only moving up to second because Labour dropped more.

    But UKIP argue that if the Liberal Democrats can overturn a similar majority in Richmond, they can do the same in Lincolnshire.
    UKIP candidate Victoria Ayling told Sky News: "The overarching feeling is to give the Government a good kick as happened in Richmond, which was predominantly Remain.
    "Here it is predominantly Out and they want to give the Government a kick here, so after Richmond it's looking very encouraging."

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-inspired-by-liberal-democrat-victory-in-richmond-by-election-10680776
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

    Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    Just rejoice at that news :D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Popcorn at the ready. @DavidDavisMP will give evidence to the new Brexit Select Cttee next Weds, 2pm.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    As usual Yougov weight down Lib Dems from 135 in raw data to 116 . This seems rather excessive as the Votes in 2015 GE were only weighted down from 109 to 100 .
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Half of Labour’s 2015 vote have abandoned the party - pah, tis a mere flesh wound…!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,681
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

    Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?
    Well Ed Miliband poll 900k more votes than Michael Foot, when you take into population growth, you could say Ed did worst than Foot.

    I cannot see Corbyn doing any better than Miliband, I mean the Tories managed to portray Ed as a national security risk, just imagine what they'll do to Corbyn given his history.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Now Guido has managed to get a quote from the head of Labour Friends of Israel condemning Corbyn for associating with Anti-Semites again.

    "We find it strange that Jeremy Corbyn would think it’s appropriate to attend an event organised by a group who say the party he leads is “indebted to Jewish financiers with Zionist leanings”. We hope in future Jeremy will think more carefully about the organisations he associates himself with."

    http://order-order.com/2016/12/09/251413/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm very interested in the substantial reweighting from Remain to Leave. The implications of this need to be properly understood.

    71% of Remainers either don't know who they're going to vote for or are currently naming the Conservatives (who are currently flirting with hard Brexit) or Labour (who don't seem to have a clue either way about Brexit). That sounds pretty unstable all round to me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Popcorn at the ready. @DavidDavisMP will give evidence to the new Brexit Select Cttee next Weds, 2pm.

    I hear he will come armed with a Dulux color palette.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    MarkSenior said:

    As usual Yougov weight down Lib Dems from 135 in raw data to 116 . This seems rather excessive as the Votes in 2015 GE were only weighted down from 109 to 100 .

    Which weighting actually causes this?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,841
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

    Didn't they get worse under Brown?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    I hear he will come armed with a Dulux color palette.

    and a French flag...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,355
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Popcorn at the ready. @DavidDavisMP will give evidence to the new Brexit Select Cttee next Weds, 2pm.

    I hear he will come armed with a Dulux color palette.
    No need now....we are getting a red, white and blue one.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm very interested in the substantial reweighting from Remain to Leave. The implications of this need to be properly understood.

    71% of Remainers either don't know who they're going to vote for or are currently naming the Conservatives (who are currently flirting with hard Brexit) or Labour (who don't seem to have a clue either way about Brexit). That sounds pretty unstable all round to me.

    are they actually weighting on remain/leave or is the effect of weighting by someone else.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,737
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm very interested in the substantial reweighting from Remain to Leave. The implications of this need to be properly understood.

    71% of Remainers either don't know who they're going to vote for or are currently naming the Conservatives (who are currently flirting with hard Brexit) or Labour (who don't seem to have a clue either way about Brexit). That sounds pretty unstable all round to me.

    I can assure you my parents will both be voting Conservative ;)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm very interested in the substantial reweighting from Remain to Leave. The implications of this need to be properly understood.

    71% of Remainers either don't know who they're going to vote for or are currently naming the Conservatives (who are currently flirting with hard Brexit) or Labour (who don't seem to have a clue either way about Brexit). That sounds pretty unstable all round to me.

    are they actually weighting on remain/leave or is the effect of weighting by someone else.
    Don't know. Either way, it's a process that needs to be properly understood.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    MarkSenior said:

    As usual Yougov weight down Lib Dems from 135 in raw data to 116 . This seems rather excessive as the Votes in 2015 GE were only weighted down from 109 to 100 .

    Which weighting actually causes this?
    Good question , usually it is the weighting for 2015 GE voting but this poll that is only part of it .
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,192
    logical_song said:

    New thread curse:
    justin124 said:

    I don't believe the omens for Nutall are good if this is the best that UKIP can do under what should be optimum circumstances for them.


    In some ways Sleaford was a mirror image of Richmond Park and that is what UKIP were saying 6 days ago (see quotes & link below). They also had the advantage of not fighting Richmond Park and could concentrate on Sleaford. And what happened, they dropped 2.2%, only moving up to second because Labour dropped more.

    But UKIP argue that if the Liberal Democrats can overturn a similar majority in Richmond, they can do the same in Lincolnshire.
    UKIP candidate Victoria Ayling told Sky News: "The overarching feeling is to give the Government a good kick as happened in Richmond, which was predominantly Remain.
    "Here it is predominantly Out and they want to give the Government a kick here, so after Richmond it's looking very encouraging."

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-inspired-by-liberal-democrat-victory-in-richmond-by-election-10680776

    UKIP seem to be assuming that 100% of Leavers crave their own brand of immediate, ultra-Hard Brexit. I suspect the reality is far more nuanced: most will be prepared to let the technocrats to their work and be reconciled to the years of negotiations and bureaucratic drudgery ahead. It's in the British character to be wary of quick fixes prescribed by zealots.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Popcorn at the ready. @DavidDavisMP will give evidence to the new Brexit Select Cttee next Weds, 2pm.

    I hear he will come armed with a Dulux color palette.
    No need now....we are getting a red, white and blue one.
    Many different shades of those colours ;)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    edited December 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

    Not quite: 1983, but early Kinnock.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/807174118449745921
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

    Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?
    Well Ed Miliband poll 900k more votes than Michael Foot, when you take into population growth, you could say Ed did worst than Foot.

    I cannot see Corbyn doing any better than Miliband, I mean the Tories managed to portray Ed as a national security risk, just imagine what they'll do to Corbyn given his history.
    The SNP have destroyed them, the Tories will play the security card, the LibDems will take left wing Remainers away from them, and UKIP is going after them with northern Leavers. What is Labour's core vote now?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Been having my own trawl through the data. As with all recent polls, the Tory lead appears to be based, essentially, on a big advantage amongst the over 40s, and Labour only scores decisively better amongst the under 25s. Given that the mean age of the population has now passed 40 and that children have not yet been granted suffrage, this does of course account for the Tories' enormous lead.

    Also in the data:

    * The Tories outpoll Labour 61:12 amongst pensioners, i.e. the people most likely to vote. Ukip scores 15% and is therefore in second place with this group.
    * The Tories also outpoll Labour 44:17 in the 50-64 group, amongst which the LDs and other parties do a lot better. Ukip is on 16% with this cohort.
    * May leads Corbyn 49:16 on the best PM question amongst all voters. For pensioners the ratio is 72:6.
    * The Tories lead Labour on all policy issues about which questions were asked except health and housing.
    * There's still little sign of Brexit regret: 44% think Britain right to leave, 42% wrong, 14% DK.
    * Excluding the don't knows, the percentage of 2015 supporters still backing the parties is as follows: Con 92%, Ukip 71%, LD 69%, Lab 69%. Ukip defectors have gone almost entirely Tory; LD defectors pretty evenly split between Con & Lab; and Labour has been shipping votes to everybody else.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    SimonStClare said:

    Half of Labour’s 2015 vote have abandoned the party - pah, tis a mere flesh wound…!

    Near enough the same as for the Lib Dems and UKIP.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    I'm sure there is a simple explanation but:

    2015 GE Labour got circa 32% (?)

    Half of Labour voters have abandoned the party, says the thread headline.

    Labour are shown on 25%, but when I went to school half of 32% was 16%.

    I'm sure there is a simple statistical explanation, but what is it? Are there massive quantities of don't knows?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    JohnLilburne said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

    Didn't they get worse under Brown?
    Not in opposition!

    But yes, the absolute worst score Labour has ever recorded in a poll is 18% under Brown in May 2009 during the expenses scandal. The lowest during the early 1980s was 23%.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    philiph said:

    I'm sure there is a simple explanation but:

    2015 GE Labour got circa 32% (?)

    Half of Labour voters have abandoned the party, says the thread headline.

    Labour are shown on 25%, but when I went to school half of 32% was 16%.

    I'm sure there is a simple statistical explanation, but what is it? Are there massive quantities of don't knows?

    Yes - you can see them across the bottom of the first table Mike's quoted. Overall, 22% DK plus a further 12% Would Not Vote.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Popcorn at the ready. @DavidDavisMP will give evidence to the new Brexit Select Cttee next Weds, 2pm.

    I hear he will come armed with a Dulux color palette.
    No need now....we are getting a red, white and blue one.
    I need details. Pantone references please.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Looks as if Labour finished bottom of a poll in West Maldon.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

    Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?
    Well Ed Miliband poll 900k more votes than Michael Foot, when you take into population growth, you could say Ed did worst than Foot.

    I cannot see Corbyn doing any better than Miliband, I mean the Tories managed to portray Ed as a national security risk, just imagine what they'll do to Corbyn given his history.
    The SNP have destroyed them, the Tories will play the security card, the LibDems will take left wing Remainers away from them, and UKIP is going after them with northern Leavers. What is Labour's core vote now?
    Muslim heartlands and luvvie London bubble.

    I wonder if we've go to that stage where most people have probably made up their minds regarding Corbyn. He could pretty much say or promise anything, however absurd or implausible, and nobody would believe him, or even care. From Blair to Brown to Miliband to Corbyn, the law of diminishing returns in all its glory. Diane Abbott next? Has a main opposition party actually shed more votes than it has gained over two successive general elections?

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,179
    To be fair there is a high level of churn (with major sampling caveats) for the 2015 Lib Dem and UKIP votes, as well as for Labour. Only the Conservatives seem to be more settled.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Maldon – Maldon West

    Ind 279 Conservatives 172 UKIP 114 Green 69 BNP 51 Labour 47

    Independent gain from Conservatives.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2016/12/council-by-election-results-from-yesterday-108.html

    Below the BNP, Corbyn is a towering genius.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,133
    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Popcorn at the ready. @DavidDavisMP will give evidence to the new Brexit Select Cttee next Weds, 2pm.

    I hear he will come armed with a Dulux color palette.
    No need now....we are getting a red, white and blue one.
    Many different shades of those colours ;)
    A taupe Brexit might do more for the resale value? Do it up; sell it on. :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,097
    Stark_Dawning said:

    logical_song said:

    New thread curse:
    justin124 said:

    I don't believe the omens for Nutall are good if this is the best that UKIP can do under what should be optimum circumstances for them.


    In some ways Sleaford was a mirror image of Richmond Park and that is what UKIP were saying 6 days ago (see quotes & link below). They also had the advantage of not fighting Richmond Park and could concentrate on Sleaford. And what happened, they dropped 2.2%, only moving up to second because Labour dropped more.

    But UKIP argue that if the Liberal Democrats can overturn a similar majority in Richmond, they can do the same in Lincolnshire.
    UKIP candidate Victoria Ayling told Sky News: "The overarching feeling is to give the Government a good kick as happened in Richmond, which was predominantly Remain.
    "Here it is predominantly Out and they want to give the Government a kick here, so after Richmond it's looking very encouraging."

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-inspired-by-liberal-democrat-victory-in-richmond-by-election-10680776

    UKIP seem to be assuming that 100% of Leavers crave their own brand of immediate, ultra-Hard Brexit. I suspect the reality is far more nuanced: most will be prepared to let the technocrats to their work and be reconciled to the years of negotiations and bureaucratic drudgery ahead. It's in the British character to be wary of quick fixes prescribed by zealots.
    Post-Brexit there is nothing left for them other than the support base of far-right nationalism, which without the traumatic history of much of the continent here was always narrow (and always focused on safe Labour areas, where UKIP now claims to be heading). Without the handle of euroscepticism to hang onto that will always be a dead end; even if the far right is marching in Europe, I cannot see it overcoming the obstacles it will always have here in the Uk.

    If - as he is said to intend - Banks launches some sort of online movement (which looks a bit like a right-wing mirror of the centre-left More United) for the disaffected early in 2017, surely that will kill UKIP completely, especially if Farage is publicly part of it?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,681
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Jason said:

    I wonder if we've go to that stage where most people have probably made up their minds regarding Corbyn.

    I don't know how true this actually is, but some say that most voters gain initial impressions of new party leaders quickly, and make up their minds about them early on. After that, settled opinions can be very hard to shift. Apparently helped contributed to downfall of EdM.

    If so the Tories are sitting pretty and Labour are very, very screwed. But I think we could've guessed that anyway.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,097
    Jason said:

    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

    Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?
    Well Ed Miliband poll 900k more votes than Michael Foot, when you take into population growth, you could say Ed did worst than Foot.

    I cannot see Corbyn doing any better than Miliband, I mean the Tories managed to portray Ed as a national security risk, just imagine what they'll do to Corbyn given his history.
    The SNP have destroyed them, the Tories will play the security card, the LibDems will take left wing Remainers away from them, and UKIP is going after them with northern Leavers. What is Labour's core vote now?
    Muslim heartlands and luvvie London bubble.

    I wonder if we've go to that stage where most people have probably made up their minds regarding Corbyn. He could pretty much say or promise anything, however absurd or implausible, and nobody would believe him, or even care. From Blair to Brown to Miliband to Corbyn, the law of diminishing returns in all its glory. Diane Abbott next? Has a main opposition party actually shed more votes than it has gained over two successive general elections?

    Surely the LibDems should be able to craft a pitch to the London luvvies?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
    Freedom under Hitler?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,097
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
    Or a commentary on something they don't like beginning with 'H'?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    dr_spyn said:

    Maldon – Maldon West

    Ind 279 Conservatives 172 UKIP 114 Green 69 BNP 51 Labour 47

    Independent gain from Conservatives.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2016/12/council-by-election-results-from-yesterday-108.html

    Below the BNP, Corbyn is a towering genius.

    To be fair , the BNP are standing under an apparently harmless and more attractive party description .
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,179
    philiph said:

    I'm sure there is a simple explanation but:

    2015 GE Labour got circa 32% (?)

    Half of Labour voters have abandoned the party, says the thread headline.

    Labour are shown on 25%, but when I went to school half of 32% was 16%.

    I'm sure there is a simple statistical explanation, but what is it? Are there massive quantities of don't knows?

    The explanation is the very high level of "Don't Knows" in this survey. The 25% is of those that will certainly vote. 17% of the whole sample. Whereas, by definition, the proportion of those that voted Labour, Tory, Lib Dem etc in 2015 is of those that actually voted.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

    Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,707
    Blimey, if you plug these numbers into electoral calculus, under the new boundaries, Alan Johnson loses his seat, Nottingham South goes Tory, as do a stack of Brum seats and a stack of Yorkshire including Mary Creagh's seat.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    edited December 2016
    Jason said:

    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?

    Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?
    Well Ed Miliband poll 900k more votes than Michael Foot, when you take into population growth, you could say Ed did worst than Foot.

    I cannot see Corbyn doing any better than Miliband, I mean the Tories managed to portray Ed as a national security risk, just imagine what they'll do to Corbyn given his history.
    The SNP have destroyed them, the Tories will play the security card, the LibDems will take left wing Remainers away from them, and UKIP is going after them with northern Leavers. What is Labour's core vote now?
    Muslim heartlands and luvvie London bubble.

    I wonder if we've go to that stage where most people have probably made up their minds regarding Corbyn. He could pretty much say or promise anything, however absurd or implausible, and nobody would believe him, or even care. From Blair to Brown to Miliband to Corbyn, the law of diminishing returns in all its glory. Diane Abbott next? Has a main opposition party actually shed more votes than it has gained over two successive general elections?

    Yes. Labour 1955/59. 13.9m in 1951, 12.4m in 1955, and 12.2m in 1959.

    That run of losing seats at four successive elections (1950-59) was matched by Labour this last time (2001, 2005, 2010, 2015). To lose seats net at a fifth successive election would, I think, be unprecedented.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Black_Rook said:

    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
    The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

    Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
    It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    MarkSenior said:

    Black_Rook said:

    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
    The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
    Not so soft in Sleaford though, with their best performance in decades.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,707
    Black_Rook said:

    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
    Someone in the Liberal operation, I forgot who, said the other day that in the seats where they are likely to actually run any kind of campaign in 2020 their vote share is more like mid to late teens than the national vote of 10 or 11%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

    Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
    It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .
    Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Black_Rook said:

    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
    The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
    Not so soft in Sleaford though, with their best performance in decades.
    Unlike Witney and R Park
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

    Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
    This is from the nomination paper on the Council website.

    Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care.

    https://www.maldon.gov.uk/site/scripts/google_results.php?q=election&sortBy=date
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Black_Rook said:

    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
    The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
    Not so soft in Sleaford though, with their best performance in decades.
    Unlike Witney and R Park
    Exceptional circumstances in both cases, I'd argue.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    rottenborough said:

    Blimey, if you plug these numbers into electoral calculus, under the new boundaries, Alan Johnson loses his seat, Nottingham South goes Tory, as do a stack of Brum seats and a stack of Yorkshire including Mary Creagh's seat.

    Con will of course gain Wakefield anyway due to the incomparable local leadership.

    But seriously, it'd be another straw in the wind as to how politics is changing. Thatcher never managed to win the seat, coming within a few hundred in 1983, and it remained (and remains) consistently Labour since 1935.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,133
    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

    Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
    The Militant Elvis party seems to have many names they use on the ballot papers.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    MarkSenior said:

    Black_Rook said:

    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
    The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
    By-elections, shmy-elections.

    Come a general election, your boys are going to have to say whether, in a hung parliament, you'd be willing to put Corbyn into No 10. If you say yes (or if you don't say no), then you'll be branded a risk to national security; if you say no, you lose your tactical Labour votes.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Essex live - BNP take control of a parish council, fighting under another name.

    http://www.essexlive.news/british-national-party-take-control-of-heybridge-parish-council-after-by-election-win/story-29829328-detail/story.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,707
    Another classic interview with that scourge of the elite who run Britain, Farage:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/nigel-farage-exclusive-interview-special-relationship-donald/

    Interview takes places in one of the most expensive restaurants in London and descends over fine clarets into a discussion about how he is pissed off that he hasn't got the kind of money all his friends have, as in £60 million or more. Some even have 300 million.

    How on earth did this city trader convince millions of working people that he is their representative against the establishment?

    Oh, and he wants to bring peace to the middle east.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

    Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
    It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .
    Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.
    A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    F1: Alonso's manager reckons he isn't going to Mercedes:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38263573

    Last time I saw the market (been down a few days) he was third favourite, around 9 or so, behind short odds Wehrlein and close second contender Bottas.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    edited December 2016
    david_herdson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Black_Rook said:

    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
    The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
    By-elections, shmy-elections.

    Come a general election, your boys are going to have to say whether, in a hung parliament, you'd be willing to put Corbyn into No 10. If you say yes (or if you don't say no), then you'll be branded a risk to national security; if you say no, you lose your tactical Labour votes.
    I have voted Lib Dems a fair bit in local elections. The Lib Dem MP for Colchester did my family a great service - but at the last election both I an my wife with heavy hearts voted for the Conservative. Keeping Labour out was our imperative.

    As you say, if anything Labour are far, far worse than they were in 2015 and no way can I vote for anything other than a party to keep them out. Oh, the Lib Dem response to Brexit hasn't endeared them to me either, although I might still vote for my local Lib Dem Councillor as he is a top man and always ready to help the community
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,681
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: Alonso's manager reckons he isn't going to Mercedes:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38263573

    Last time I saw the market (been down a few days) he was third favourite, around 9 or so, behind short odds Wehrlein and close second contender Bottas.

    What odds is the Hannibal of Formula One, Luca Badoer?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,707
    david_herdson said:

    rottenborough said:

    Blimey, if you plug these numbers into electoral calculus, under the new boundaries, Alan Johnson loses his seat, Nottingham South goes Tory, as do a stack of Brum seats and a stack of Yorkshire including Mary Creagh's seat.

    Con will of course gain Wakefield anyway due to the incomparable local leadership.

    But seriously, it'd be another straw in the wind as to how politics is changing. Thatcher never managed to win the seat, coming within a few hundred in 1983, and it remained (and remains) consistently Labour since 1935.
    Return to your constituency and prepare for government!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    edited December 2016
    F1: they put the market back up.

    Also, Bottas down to 9 for the title. I backed him at 15 (each way, of course). And Wehrlein at 3 for the seat. So if either of those happens, I should be ok.

    Edited extra bit: er, 26 each way for Bottas, apparently. Not sure if that's a typo or I just remembered incorrectly.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,192
    rottenborough said:

    Another classic interview with that scourge of the elite who run Britain, Farage:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/nigel-farage-exclusive-interview-special-relationship-donald/

    Interview takes places in one of the most expensive restaurants in London and descends over fine clarets into a discussion about how he is pissed off that he hasn't got the kind of money all his friends have, as in £60 million or more. Some even have 300 million.

    How on earth did this city trader convince millions of working people that he is their representative against the establishment?

    Oh, and he wants to bring peace to the middle east.

    Sickening greed. But it explains his desperation to get in with Trump and the Fox News circuit - once the EU gravy train is ended, how will he continue funding the lifestyle he obviously feels he so richly deserves?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,154
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: Alonso's manager reckons he isn't going to Mercedes:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38263573

    Last time I saw the market (been down a few days) he was third favourite, around 9 or so, behind short odds Wehrlein and close second contender Bottas.

    What odds is the Hannibal of Formula One, Luca Badoer?
    LOL! There's a name I haven't heard for some time. Test driver supreme!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    MarkSenior said:

    Black_Rook said:

    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
    The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
    Oh indeed - the over 50s are notoriously flaky in their loyalties...oh wait!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/807252936325824513
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    MarkSenior said:

    Black_Rook said:

    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
    The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
    Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.

    That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Go Jezza!!!!!!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    Mr. Jessop, I feel sorry for Badoer. Kept out of a seat for years due to a stupid regulation, then so poor he became the reason that daft regulation was axed.

    Mr. Eagles, you have the subtlety and nuance of a drunk Pastor Maldonado.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    MarkSenior said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Maldon – Maldon West

    Ind 279 Conservatives 172 UKIP 114 Green 69 BNP 51 Labour 47

    Independent gain from Conservatives.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2016/12/council-by-election-results-from-yesterday-108.html

    Below the BNP, Corbyn is a towering genius.

    To be fair , the BNP are standing under an apparently harmless and more attractive party description .
    Or - Labour are voter repellant - you decide.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Floater said:

    david_herdson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Black_Rook said:

    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
    The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
    By-elections, shmy-elections.

    Come a general election, your boys are going to have to say whether, in a hung parliament, you'd be willing to put Corbyn into No 10. If you say yes (or if you don't say no), then you'll be branded a risk to national security; if you say no, you lose your tactical Labour votes.
    I have voted Lib Dems a fair bit in local elections. The Lib Dem MP for Colchester did my family a great service - but at the last election both I an my wife with heavy hearts voted for the Conservative. Keeping Labour out was our imperative.

    As you say, if anything Labour are far, far worse than they were in 2015 and no way can I vote for anything other than a party to keep them out. Oh, the Lib Dem response to Brexit hasn't endeared them to me either, although I might still vote for my local Lib Dem Councillor as he is a top man and always ready to help the community
    And how did voting Conservative in Colchester keep out Labour ?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Floater said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Black_Rook said:

    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
    The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
    Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.

    That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.
    No chance of that - only a few hours ago he suggested the oldies who vote Tory/UKIP were probably suffering from alzeimers. He is a first rate s***.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,097
    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

    Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
    It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .
    Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.
    A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .
    Much more comment than replacing the party name entirely, which is unlikely to make sense for a party with an established base (although I guess mentally worth adding to the list of last ditch options for Labour?)

    Standing as a council candidate as LibDem Focus Team rather than just LibDem undoubtedly carries an advantage. Using "Caroline Pidgeon's Liberal Democrats" as the party's official description in this year's London elections was however a bright idea from someone at HQ that didn't do any good.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    F1: anyway, most of those odds have shortened quite a bit. One I put a few pounds on which is still long (and it should be, but not this long) is Vandoorne for the title, each way at 67. Odds haven't budged.

    If Alonso's 13 for the title, and he is, then his car must be good enough. And if it is, 12/1 for the title and 66/1 for his team mate (just over 12/1 to be top three) is too long. I think. Bit of a guess but the disparity is substantial.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,681
    21st Century Fox table a bid for Sky.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,581
    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

    Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
    It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .
    Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.
    A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .
    Hm, can the extra votes be attributed to just the name? At least the word Conservative was in there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,681
    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: Alonso's manager reckons he isn't going to Mercedes:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38263573

    Last time I saw the market (been down a few days) he was third favourite, around 9 or so, behind short odds Wehrlein and close second contender Bottas.

    What odds is the Hannibal of Formula One, Luca Badoer?
    LOL! There's a name I haven't heard for some time. Test driver supreme!
    The man's a world record holder

    As of September 2011, Badoer holds the record for the most Grand Prix starts – 50 – and the most race laps completed – 2364 – without scoring a point

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luca_Badoer
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,097
    edited December 2016
    For reference, here is the full list of names currently registered by the BNP:

    British Jobs for British Workers
    British National Party Local People First
    Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care
    People like you - Voting BNP
    Because we can make Britain Better
    With Adam Walker
    Because we can make Scotland Better
    Because we can make Wales better
    British National Party - Plaid Genedlaethol Brydeinig
    Because the English have rights too
    At the heart of our community

    Edit/ notice that, although they claim to be able to make Wales and Scotland better, only the English have rights.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,154
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Jessop, I feel sorry for Badoer. Kept out of a seat for years due to a stupid regulation, then so poor he became the reason that daft regulation was axed.

    Mr. Eagles, you have the subtlety and nuance of a drunk Pastor Maldonado.

    Ah Mr Dancer, I don't think I've heard that story. What regulation?

    And yes, joking aside, I feel a little sorry for him as well.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited December 2016
    felix said:

    Floater said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Black_Rook said:

    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
    The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
    Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.

    That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.
    No chance of that - only a few hours ago he suggested the oldies who vote Tory/UKIP were probably suffering from alzeimers. He is a first rate s***.
    With repulsive creatures like yourself supporting them it is hard not to hate the Conservatives but nevertheless I supported the 2010 2015 Coalition government much more strongly than many Tories .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,681
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    21st Century Fox table a bid for Sky.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/21st-century-fox-agrees-to-buy-sky?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

    Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
    It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .
    Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.
    A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .
    Hm, can the extra votes be attributed to just the name? At least the word Conservative was in there.
    Yes the extra votes appeared in that election compared to the previous one and as quickly disappeared in the next one .
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited December 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    21st Century Fox table a bid for Sky.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/21st-century-fox-agrees-to-buy-sky?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
    Uncle Vince isn't around this time to block it either (or use his nuclear weapon).
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/807252936325824513

    Questionable as to whether or not this tells us anything useful. Twitter users are unlikely to constitute a representative sample of the general population, after all.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,723
    Mr. Jessop, it used to be that reserve drivers were effectively banned from testing. So Badoer had no experience of the car, or any for years (of F1), when he jumped into the Ferrari.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    MarkSenior said:

    felix said:

    Floater said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Black_Rook said:

    rogerh said:

    Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE?
    The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.

    The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842

    The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.

    I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
    The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
    Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.

    That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.
    No chance of that - only a few hours ago he suggested the oldies who vote Tory/UKIP were probably suffering from alzeimers. He is a first rate s***.
    With repulsive creatures like yourself supporting them it is hard not to hate the Conservatives but nevertheless I supported the 2010 2015 Coalition government much more strongly than many Tories .
    Lol - I see there is no apology ... and no denial.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,097
    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Maldon West (Maldon) result:
    IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
    CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
    UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
    GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
    FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
    LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)

    I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.

    FUH = BNP

    FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807243589885554688

    Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
    It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .
    Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.
    A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .
    Hm, can the extra votes be attributed to just the name? At least the word Conservative was in there.
    Yes the extra votes appeared in that election compared to the previous one and as quickly disappeared in the next one .
    This is clearly closely allied to the statistic that consistently somewhere about 7% of voters say they didn't make up they mind until they were actually in the polling station looking at the ballot paper.
This discussion has been closed.