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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov adds to Labour woes with the worst poll since 2009

Given that it is barely three months since Corbyn was re-elected with a huge majority it is hard to see what the party can do. They are stuck with a leader who appears to repel voters and with him in place there appears no obvious way back.
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justin124 said:
I don't believe the omens for Nutall are good if this is the best that UKIP can do under what should be optimum circumstances for them.
In some ways Sleaford was a mirror image of Richmond Park and that is what UKIP were saying 6 days ago (see quotes & link below). They also had the advantage of not fighting Richmond Park and could concentrate on Sleaford. And what happened, they dropped 2.2%, only moving up to second because Labour dropped more.
But UKIP argue that if the Liberal Democrats can overturn a similar majority in Richmond, they can do the same in Lincolnshire.
UKIP candidate Victoria Ayling told Sky News: "The overarching feeling is to give the Government a good kick as happened in Richmond, which was predominantly Remain.
"Here it is predominantly Out and they want to give the Government a kick here, so after Richmond it's looking very encouraging."
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-inspired-by-liberal-democrat-victory-in-richmond-by-election-10680776
I cannot see Corbyn doing any better than Miliband, I mean the Tories managed to portray Ed as a national security risk, just imagine what they'll do to Corbyn given his history.
"We find it strange that Jeremy Corbyn would think it’s appropriate to attend an event organised by a group who say the party he leads is “indebted to Jewish financiers with Zionist leanings”. We hope in future Jeremy will think more carefully about the organisations he associates himself with."
http://order-order.com/2016/12/09/251413/
71% of Remainers either don't know who they're going to vote for or are currently naming the Conservatives (who are currently flirting with hard Brexit) or Labour (who don't seem to have a clue either way about Brexit). That sounds pretty unstable all round to me.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/807174118449745921
Also in the data:
* The Tories outpoll Labour 61:12 amongst pensioners, i.e. the people most likely to vote. Ukip scores 15% and is therefore in second place with this group.
* The Tories also outpoll Labour 44:17 in the 50-64 group, amongst which the LDs and other parties do a lot better. Ukip is on 16% with this cohort.
* May leads Corbyn 49:16 on the best PM question amongst all voters. For pensioners the ratio is 72:6.
* The Tories lead Labour on all policy issues about which questions were asked except health and housing.
* There's still little sign of Brexit regret: 44% think Britain right to leave, 42% wrong, 14% DK.
* Excluding the don't knows, the percentage of 2015 supporters still backing the parties is as follows: Con 92%, Ukip 71%, LD 69%, Lab 69%. Ukip defectors have gone almost entirely Tory; LD defectors pretty evenly split between Con & Lab; and Labour has been shipping votes to everybody else.
2015 GE Labour got circa 32% (?)
Half of Labour voters have abandoned the party, says the thread headline.
Labour are shown on 25%, but when I went to school half of 32% was 16%.
I'm sure there is a simple statistical explanation, but what is it? Are there massive quantities of don't knows?
But yes, the absolute worst score Labour has ever recorded in a poll is 18% under Brown in May 2009 during the expenses scandal. The lowest during the early 1980s was 23%.
The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.
I wonder if we've go to that stage where most people have probably made up their minds regarding Corbyn. He could pretty much say or promise anything, however absurd or implausible, and nobody would believe him, or even care. From Blair to Brown to Miliband to Corbyn, the law of diminishing returns in all its glory. Diane Abbott next? Has a main opposition party actually shed more votes than it has gained over two successive general elections?
Ind 279 Conservatives 172 UKIP 114 Green 69 BNP 51 Labour 47
Independent gain from Conservatives.
http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2016/12/council-by-election-results-from-yesterday-108.html
Below the BNP, Corbyn is a towering genius.
IND: 38.1% (+38.1)
CON: 23.5% (-6.4)
UKIP: 15.6% (+15.6)
GRN: 9.4% (-10.0)
FUH: 7.0% (+7.0) = BNP apparently
LAB: 6.4% (+6.4)
I'm interest to see about the IND, is safe Tory territory with UKIP second in GE.
If - as he is said to intend - Banks launches some sort of online movement (which looks a bit like a right-wing mirror of the centre-left More United) for the disaffected early in 2017, surely that will kill UKIP completely, especially if Farage is publicly part of it?
FUH is short for Führer I'm guessing?
If so the Tories are sitting pretty and Labour are very, very screwed. But I think we could've guessed that anyway.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X85PgCqavImGZPGdbrEfQc6uzNP98KXwZcf-8JsKZto/edit#gid=8983842
The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.
I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
That run of losing seats at four successive elections (1950-59) was matched by Labour this last time (2001, 2005, 2010, 2015). To lose seats net at a fifth successive election would, I think, be unprecedented.
Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care.
https://www.maldon.gov.uk/site/scripts/google_results.php?q=election&sortBy=date
But seriously, it'd be another straw in the wind as to how politics is changing. Thatcher never managed to win the seat, coming within a few hundred in 1983, and it remained (and remains) consistently Labour since 1935.
Come a general election, your boys are going to have to say whether, in a hung parliament, you'd be willing to put Corbyn into No 10. If you say yes (or if you don't say no), then you'll be branded a risk to national security; if you say no, you lose your tactical Labour votes.
http://www.essexlive.news/british-national-party-take-control-of-heybridge-parish-council-after-by-election-win/story-29829328-detail/story.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/nigel-farage-exclusive-interview-special-relationship-donald/
Interview takes places in one of the most expensive restaurants in London and descends over fine clarets into a discussion about how he is pissed off that he hasn't got the kind of money all his friends have, as in £60 million or more. Some even have 300 million.
How on earth did this city trader convince millions of working people that he is their representative against the establishment?
Oh, and he wants to bring peace to the middle east.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38263573
Last time I saw the market (been down a few days) he was third favourite, around 9 or so, behind short odds Wehrlein and close second contender Bottas.
As you say, if anything Labour are far, far worse than they were in 2015 and no way can I vote for anything other than a party to keep them out. Oh, the Lib Dem response to Brexit hasn't endeared them to me either, although I might still vote for my local Lib Dem Councillor as he is a top man and always ready to help the community
Also, Bottas down to 9 for the title. I backed him at 15 (each way, of course). And Wehrlein at 3 for the seat. So if either of those happens, I should be ok.
Edited extra bit: er, 26 each way for Bottas, apparently. Not sure if that's a typo or I just remembered incorrectly.
That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.
Mr. Eagles, you have the subtlety and nuance of a drunk Pastor Maldonado.
Standing as a council candidate as LibDem Focus Team rather than just LibDem undoubtedly carries an advantage. Using "Caroline Pidgeon's Liberal Democrats" as the party's official description in this year's London elections was however a bright idea from someone at HQ that didn't do any good.
If Alonso's 13 for the title, and he is, then his car must be good enough. And if it is, 12/1 for the title and 66/1 for his team mate (just over 12/1 to be top three) is too long. I think. Bit of a guess but the disparity is substantial.
As of September 2011, Badoer holds the record for the most Grand Prix starts – 50 – and the most race laps completed – 2364 – without scoring a point
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luca_Badoer
British Jobs for British Workers
British National Party Local People First
Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care
People like you - Voting BNP
Because we can make Britain Better
With Adam Walker
Because we can make Scotland Better
Because we can make Wales better
British National Party - Plaid Genedlaethol Brydeinig
Because the English have rights too
At the heart of our community
Edit/ notice that, although they claim to be able to make Wales and Scotland better, only the English have rights.
And yes, joking aside, I feel a little sorry for him as well.