Questionable as to whether or not this tells us anything useful. Twitter users are unlikely to constitute a representative sample of the general population, after all.
But the presentation of the data on the website is fab. Great use of active graphs.
Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .
Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.
A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .
Hm, can the extra votes be attributed to just the name? At least the word Conservative was in there.
Yes the extra votes appeared in that election compared to the previous one and as quickly disappeared in the next one .
Hardly conclusive evidence that it was all down to the name.
Mr. Jessop, it used to be that reserve drivers were effectively banned from testing. So Badoer had no experience of the car, or any for years (of F1), when he jumped into the Ferrari.
This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?
Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?
Well Ed Miliband poll 900k more votes than Michael Foot, when you take into population growth, you could say Ed did worst than Foot.
I cannot see Corbyn doing any better than Miliband, I mean the Tories managed to portray Ed as a national security risk, just imagine what they'll do to Corbyn given his history.
The SNP have destroyed them, the Tories will play the security card, the LibDems will take left wing Remainers away from them, and UKIP is going after them with northern Leavers. What is Labour's core vote now?
Muslim heartlands and luvvie London bubble.
I wonder if we've go to that stage where most people have probably made up their minds regarding Corbyn. He could pretty much say or promise anything, however absurd or implausible, and nobody would believe him, or even care. From Blair to Brown to Miliband to Corbyn, the law of diminishing returns in all its glory. Diane Abbott next? Has a main opposition party actually shed more votes than it has gained over two successive general elections?
Surely the LibDems should be able to craft a pitch to the London luvvies?
Looking back at the list of alternative BNP names I posted below, I also notice they chose to make Gordon Brown's slogan one of them, which was very naughty,
Looking back at the list of alternative BNP names I posted below, I also notice they chose to make Gordon Brown's slogan one of them, which was very naughty,
I believe it was their slogan in the first place (apologies if you knew that and my irony sensor is off).
Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .
Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.
A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .
Is it correct that Susan Kramer, the former LibDem incumbent in Richmond, lost her seat when she was alleged to have claimed that a local hospital was going to be shut down but it turned out not to be true?
Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE? The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.
The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:
The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.
I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.
That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.
No chance of that - only a few hours ago he suggested the oldies who vote Tory/UKIP were probably suffering from alzeimers. He is a first rate s***.
With repulsive creatures like yourself supporting them it is hard not to hate the Conservatives but nevertheless I supported the 2010 2015 Coalition government much more strongly than many Tories .
To be honest Mark, before you talk about other people as being "repulsive" or "creatures" you might want to look at some of your posts.
Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE? The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.
The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:
The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.
I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
By-elections, shmy-elections.
Come a general election, your boys are going to have to say whether, in a hung parliament, you'd be willing to put Corbyn into No 10. If you say yes (or if you don't say no), then you'll be branded a risk to national security; if you say no, you lose your tactical Labour votes.
I have voted Lib Dems a fair bit in local elections. The Lib Dem MP for Colchester did my family a great service - but at the last election both I an my wife with heavy hearts voted for the Conservative. Keeping Labour out was our imperative.
As you say, if anything Labour are far, far worse than they were in 2015 and no way can I vote for anything other than a party to keep them out. Oh, the Lib Dem response to Brexit hasn't endeared them to me either, although I might still vote for my local Lib Dem Councillor as he is a top man and always ready to help the community
And how did voting Conservative in Colchester keep out Labour ?
Err..... it increased the Tory majority and the popular vote
Come a general election, your boys are going to have to say whether, in a hung parliament, you'd be willing to put Corbyn into No 10. If you say yes (or if you don't say no), then you'll be branded a risk to national security; if you say no, you lose your tactical Labour votes.
Well quite. The Liberal Democrats' decision to try to seize a chunk of the centre-left off Labour - at the very moment when left-liberalism is being seriously squeezed in most of the Western world - was a strategic blunder. It may eventually earn them an extra few percent from syphoning off disillusioned Labour voters, but their best chance of making headway (one or two Scottish seats notwithstanding) ought to be in Southern England, against the Tories. As it is, the "Vote Farron, get Corbyn" line is now liable to play very well there, and will leave them trying to overturn a lot of very large Conservative majorities with little bar an appeal for left-wing sympathy votes to help.
Nor is the Continuity Remain angle likely to help nearly so much as they believe. Few constituencies have Remain biases as large as that in Richmond Park; many Remain voters are pragmatists and will be more interested in the composition of the next Government than the narrow European question, especially if we're already out, or most of the way out, of the door by the time of the next election; and out of those seats the Tories won off the Lib Dems last year, the bulk were in areas that voted by various majorities to Leave, anyway. Consolidation of the Remain vote in these areas is likely to be negated by former Ukip backers returning to the Conservatives.
As with Labour, so with the Liberal Democrats: the party has followed the hearts of the membership rather than the heads of the strategists. They would be in a far stronger position as the Yellow Tory Party - hoovering up economically conservative but socially liberal voters, wary of the Conservatives' more traditionalist positioning and arguing for a soft line on Brexit. An organisation with this positioning could totally rule out supporting a Labour or Lab/Nat administration, and have a good chance of being believed by its target audience.
But this is all hypothetical, of course. In the real world, you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .
Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.
A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .
Is it correct that Susan Kramer, the former LibDem incumbent in Richmond, lost her seat when she was alleged to have claimed that a local hospital was going to be shut down but it turned out not to be true?
If you recall there was a Lib Dem lacky on a train caught plotting to make up rubbish about Kingston Hospital being in Jeopardy and then doing the normal Lib Dem thing of having saved it when there wasn't an issue in the first place. That is their normal modus operandi..
Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE? The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.
The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:
The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.
I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.
That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.
No chance of that - only a few hours ago he suggested the oldies who vote Tory/UKIP were probably suffering from alzeimers. He is a first rate s***.
With repulsive creatures like yourself supporting them it is hard not to hate the Conservatives but nevertheless I supported the 2010 2015 Coalition government much more strongly than many Tories .
To be honest Mark, before you talk about other people as being "repulsive" or "creatures" you might want to look at some of your posts.
Leave Mark alone.. he is still getting over the trauma of GE election night 2015.
Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE? The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.
The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:
The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.
I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.
That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.
No chance of that - only a few hours ago he suggested the oldies who vote Tory/UKIP were probably suffering from alzeimers. He is a first rate s***.
With repulsive creatures like yourself supporting them it is hard not to hate the Conservatives but nevertheless I supported the 2010 2015 Coalition government much more strongly than many Tories .
To be honest Mark, before you talk about other people as being "repulsive" or "creatures" you might want to look at some of your posts.
Leave Mark alone.. he is still getting over the trauma of GE election night 2015.
Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE? The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.
The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:
The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.
I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.
That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.
No chance of that - only a few hours ago he suggested the oldies who vote Tory/UKIP were probably suffering from alzeimers. He is a first rate s***.
With repulsive creatures like yourself supporting them it is hard not to hate the Conservatives .
It is in fact extremely easy not to hate any party, particularly those with millions of supporters and broadly mainstream positions, even if some number, perhaps even prominent numbers, were indeed repulsive. Even the genuinely extreme parties and their supporters it is easy to pity or disdain rather than hate. Hate gets in the way unnecessarily. People talk a lot of crap about Corbyn and co around here, but the most convincing criticisms are the ones clearly not based on personal hatred, to make one example. And yes, people rudely giving others crap makes the temptation to hate easier, but come on, really? Hate?
Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .
Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.
A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .
Is it correct that Susan Kramer, the former LibDem incumbent in Richmond, lost her seat when she was alleged to have claimed that a local hospital was going to be shut down but it turned out not to be true?
If you recall there was a Lib Dem lacky on a train caught plotting to make up rubbish about Kingston Hospital being in Jeopardy and then doing the normal Lib Dem thing of having saved it when there wasn't an issue in the first place. That is their normal modus operandi..
Why are people so keen on saving buildings when they should be seeking an improved health service - which can mean merging some services at central facilities?
Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE? The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.
The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:
The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.
I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
By-elections, shmy-elections.
Come a general election, your boys are going to have to say whether, in a hung parliament, you'd be willing to put Corbyn into No 10. If you say yes (or if you don't say no), then you'll be branded a risk to national security; if you say no, you lose your tactical Labour votes.
I have voted Lib Dems a fair bit in local elections. The Lib Dem MP for Colchester did my family a great service - but at the last election both I an my wife with heavy hearts voted for the Conservative. Keeping Labour out was our imperative.
As you say, if anything Labour are far, far worse than they were in 2015 and no way can I vote for anything other than a party to keep them out. Oh, the Lib Dem response to Brexit hasn't endeared them to me either, although I might still vote for my local Lib Dem Councillor as he is a top man and always ready to help the community
And how did voting Conservative in Colchester keep out Labour ?
Err..... it increased the Tory majority and the popular vote
No the 2 votes of yourself and your wife made no difference to who won in Colchester never mind the country as a whole . Yes it did increase the national popular vote of the Conservatives by 2 but so what ?
Looking back at the list of alternative BNP names I posted below, I also notice they chose to make Gordon Brown's slogan one of them, which was very naughty,
I believe it was their slogan in the first place (apologies if you knew that and my irony sensor is off).
No, that's fine, I claim no, and have no, expertise to offer you all on BNP slogans, sorry.
Have they officially changed their party name? I thought the official party name had to be on the ballot paper.
It is one of their alternative names registered with the Electoral Commission .
Hm, seems a bit dishonest to use another name like that. I wonder why that is even an option.
A few years ago in Worthing ( 2008 IIRC ) the Conservatives highjacked an all party campaign against local hospital cuts and registered a name such as Conservatives Fighting For Your Local Hospitals with the E C . It added around 150-200 votes in each ward to their total and gained them a couple of seats .
Is it correct that Susan Kramer, the former LibDem incumbent in Richmond, lost her seat when she was alleged to have claimed that a local hospital was going to be shut down but it turned out not to be true?
If you recall there was a Lib Dem lacky on a train caught plotting to make up rubbish about Kingston Hospital being in Jeopardy and then doing the normal Lib Dem thing of having saved it when there wasn't an issue in the first place. That is their normal modus operandi..
Ah yes, Kingston Dan who used to post here. Sighs for ColinW (and his mum).
Err..... it increased the Tory majority and the popular vote
No the 2 votes of yourself and your wife made no difference to who won in Colchester never mind the country as a whole . Yes it did increase the national popular vote of the Conservatives by 2 but so what ?
With that logic only one person should vote in each constituency.
I'm very interested in the substantial reweighting from Remain to Leave. The implications of this need to be properly understood.
71% of Remainers either don't know who they're going to vote for or are currently naming the Conservatives (who are currently flirting with hard Brexit) or Labour (who don't seem to have a clue either way about Brexit). That sounds pretty unstable all round to me.
This does seem it has potential. Of course, Labour being in a bit of a muddle make sit hard to immediately see that 71 shifting, and a large number of Tory remainers will stick with the Tories even if hard brexit is gone for, which appears likely, since the decisions been made and they probably think the Tories are best to deal with it. I suppose some really unhappy with hard brexit might go LD, on the basis even if they don't want to overturn the result and are not as euro keen, it registers unhappiness with the hard brexit approach without risking letting in Labour all that much.
Well quite. The Liberal Democrats' decision to try to seize a chunk of the centre-left off Labour - at the very moment when left-liberalism is being seriously squeezed in most of the Western world - was a strategic blunder. It may eventually earn them an extra few percent from syphoning off disillusioned Labour voters, but their best chance of making headway (one or two Scottish seats notwithstanding) ought to be in Southern England, against the Tories. As it is, the "Vote Farron, get Corbyn" line is now liable to play very well there, and will leave them trying to overturn a lot of very large Conservative majorities with little bar an appeal for left-wing sympathy votes to help.
Nor is the Continuity Remain angle likely to help nearly so much as they believe. Few constituencies have Remain biases as large as that in Richmond Park; many Remain voters are pragmatists and will be more interested in the composition of the next Government than the narrow European question, especially if we're already out, or most of the way out, of the door by the time of the next election; and out of those seats the Tories won off the Lib Dems last year, the bulk were in areas that voted by various majorities to Leave, anyway. Consolidation of the Remain vote in these areas is likely to be negated by former Ukip backers returning to the Conservatives.
As with Labour, so with the Liberal Democrats: the party has followed the hearts of the membership rather than the heads of the strategists. They would be in a far stronger position as the Yellow Tory Party - hoovering up economically conservative but socially liberal voters, wary of the Conservatives' more traditionalist positioning and arguing for a soft line on Brexit. An organisation with this positioning could totally rule out supporting a Labour or Lab/Nat administration, and have a good chance of being believed by its target audience.
But this is all hypothetical, of course. In the real world, you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
Not really. Until our voting system is replaced with something more sensible, the only real hope for the LibDems (other than doing what they already do very well, which is blazing the trail for unpopular causes that subsequently become mainstream), is getting out from under the squeeze by replacing one of the other two parties. It was always an illusion to believe supplanting the Tories was ever possible - every country has some kind of Conservative party - and hence becoming its principal alternative is the only game in town. It's a huge mountain to climb, but I would say the LibDems are back at base camp for the first time for thirty five years.
Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE? The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.
The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:
The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.
I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.
That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.
No chance of that - only a few hours ago he suggested the oldies who vote Tory/UKIP were probably suffering from alzeimers. He is a first rate s***.
With repulsive creatures like yourself supporting them it is hard not to hate the Conservatives but nevertheless I supported the 2010 2015 Coalition government much more strongly than many Tories .
To be honest Mark, before you talk about other people as being "repulsive" or "creatures" you might want to look at some of your posts.
Leave Mark alone.. he is still getting over the trauma of GE election night 2015.
Didn't you enter into a spread bet on the Lib Dems GE night performance, or am I misremembering ?
Come a general election, your boys are going to have to say whether, in a hung parliament, you'd be willing to put Corbyn into No 10. If you say yes (or if you don't say no), then you'll be branded a risk to national security; if you say no, you lose your tactical Labour votes.
Well quite. The Liberal Democrats' decision to try to seize a chunk of the centre-left off Labour - at the very moment when left-liberalism is being seriously squeezed in most of the Western world - was a strategic blunder. It may eventually earn them an extra few percent from syphoning off disillusioned Labour voters, but their best chance of making headway (one or two Scottish seats notwithstanding) ought to be in Southern England, against the Tories. As it is, the "Vote Farron, get Corbyn" line is now liable to play very well there, and will leave them trying to overturn a lot of very large Conservative majorities with little bar an appeal for left-wing sympathy votes to help.
Nor is the Continuity Remain angle likely to help nearly so much as they believe. Few constituencies have Remain biases as large as that in Richmond Park; many Remain voters are pragmatists and will be more interested in the composition of the next Government than the narrow European question, especially if we're already out, or most of the way out, of the door by the time of the next election; and out of those seats the Tories won off the Lib Dems last year, the bulk were in areas that voted by various majorities to Leave, anyway. Consolidation of the Remain vote in these areas is likely to be negated by former Ukip backers returning to the Conservatives.
As with Labour, so with the Liberal Democrats: the party has followed the hearts of the membership rather than the heads of the strategists. They would be in a far stronger position as the Yellow Tory Party - hoovering up economically conservative but socially liberal voters, wary of the Conservatives' more traditionalist positioning and arguing for a soft line on Brexit. An organisation with this positioning could totally rule out supporting a Labour or Lab/Nat administration, and have a good chance of being believed by its target audience.
But this is all hypothetical, of course. In the real world, you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
The Lib Dems are seeking votes from the 48% who voted Remain.
According to the Ashcroft poll, 42% of Conservatives voted remain so still plenty to try to get to switch to Lib Dem - as well as the 63% Labour inclined electors who voted Remain.
Err..... it increased the Tory majority and the popular vote
No the 2 votes of yourself and your wife made no difference to who won in Colchester never mind the country as a whole . Yes it did increase the national popular vote of the Conservatives by 2 but so what ?
With that logic only one person should vote in each constituency.
I am not sure logic comes into this.
Hate and bile maybe, but that is as far it seems to go.
Corbyn is worth a net 560,000 votes to the Lib Dems from Labour's 2015 vote based on the YG, about 400,000 to the Tories and just over a quarter of million to UKIP. He loses votes to every other major (and used to be major until May 2015) party.
Lib Dems make small gains off UKIP and come out broadly flat against the Tories. The Tories hoover up UKIP.
Mr. D, had a genuine (and very polite) discussion with some university chap or other on Twitter a few months ago. He was of the view everyone should be asked what pronouns they would like applied to them. I was of the view that just using he/she as appropriate is rather more sensible (and, if incorrectly applied, can be easily rectified).
Reflecting on the Supreme Court case and the politics I do believe that Theresa May has outflanked most everyone on her thinking on the process of serving A50
She could have served it earlier but then risked later disruption by a series of judicial reviews with the possibility of the leaving process being completely derailed. She could also have accepted the High Court’s judgement but again risked further challenges.
By taking it all the way with the Supreme Court and stating that she will respect their judgement and proceed accordingly it will make obstruction by those who want to stop the process almost impossible politically.
Whatever she submits to Parliament she is bound to issue a challenge to all those MP’s and Lords who want to prevent the process to respect the democratic will of the people and the Supreme Court’s judgement. At a stroke she will nullify Gina Miller and other remainer’s quite obvious tactic to slow the whole process hoping that it will somehow not happen.
Yesterday’s vote in Sleaford displays just how serious it is for remain voting labour and conservative MP’s to vote against the process in all the many leave areas as they will lose quite comprehensively.
There are many on this forum who underestimate Theresa May and cannot understand Brexit means Brexit and a red, white and blue Brexit but for those who mock, the electorate being targeted by TM will not as these are the voters who have had enough of the establishment who take every opportunity to try and impose their view on an angry and disenfranchised majority who have had enough.
Theresa May is presently undertaking a complex and enormous task not faced by any other PM in modern history and there is no one anywhere near her in competence, certainly not Corbyn, Farron, or Sturgeon.
Underestimate Theresa May and you may well be very surprised as she rises in popularity helped by the extraordinary incompetent Jeremy Corbyn, the out of touch Tim Farron who has one third of his MP’s rejecting his and Sarah Olney’s position re the EU, and the SNP who quite frankly are not going to win an Independent referendum at any time in the foreseeable future
This has to be the worst Labour poll they've had in opposition since the days of Michael Foot?
Are you suggesting that Corbyn might manage to get as many votes as as Michael Foot?
Well Ed Miliband poll 900k more votes than Michael Foot, when you take into population growth, you could say Ed did worst than Foot.
I cannot see Corbyn doing any better than Miliband, I mean the Tories managed to portray Ed as a national security risk, just imagine what they'll do to Corbyn given his history.
Ed did 3% better in terms of vote% share than Michael Foot.
Corbyn is worth a net 560,000 votes to the Lib Dems from Labour's 2015 vote based on the YG, about 400,000 to the Tories and just over a quarter of million to UKIP. He loses votes to every other major (and used to be major until May 2015) party.
Lib Dems make small gains off UKIP and come out broadly flat against the Tories. The Tories hoover up UKIP.
A year ago, maybe. Now I genuinely believe Owen Smith, Argclu or whoever would be in no better a position.
Corbyn is worth a net 560,000 votes to the Lib Dems from Labour's 2015 vote based on the YG, about 400,000 to the Tories and just over a quarter of million to UKIP. He loses votes to every other major (and used to be major until May 2015) party.
Lib Dems make small gains off UKIP and come out broadly flat against the Tories. The Tories hoover up UKIP.
Not really. Until our voting system is replaced with something more sensible, the only real hope for the LibDems (other than doing what they already do very well, which is blazing the trail for unpopular causes that subsequently become mainstream), is getting out from under the squeeze by replacing one of the other two parties. It was always an illusion to believe supplanting the Tories was ever possible - every country has some kind of Conservative party - and hence becoming its principal alternative is the only game in town. It's a huge mountain to climb, but I would say the LibDems are back at base camp for the first time for thirty five years.
Leaving aside the whistling in the wind about PR, you assume that the main Opposition to the Tories must be a centre-left party. Times have changed. No reason to suppose that the future balance of power cannot or will not be held between a right-wing traditionalist and a centrist or centre-right liberal party.
Eating the soft, social liberal flank of the Conservatives, and then gathering soft left voters to help them beat the Tories (once it becomes apparent to everybody but die-hard socialists that Labour has had it,) seems a perfectly viable route to Opposition to me. If a liberal party could displace Labour as the main Opposition, then I think it would have a much better chance of removing the Conservatives from power than a clapped-out social democratic (or, worse, regressive socialist) party that simply doesn't have the ability to convince enough English voters of its merits anymore.
Reflecting on the Supreme Court case and the politics I do believe that Theresa May has outflanked most everyone on her thinking on the process of serving A50
She could have served it earlier but then risked later disruption by a series of judicial reviews with the possibility of the leaving process being completely derailed. She could also have accepted the High Court’s judgement but again risked further challenges.
By taking it all the way with the Supreme Court and stating that she will respect their judgement and proceed accordingly it will make obstruction by those who want to stop the process almost impossible politically.
Whatever she submits to Parliament she is bound to issue a challenge to all those MP’s and Lords who want to prevent the process to respect the democratic will of the people and the Supreme Court’s judgement. At a stroke she will nullify Gina Miller and other remainer’s quite obvious tactic to slow the whole process hoping that it will somehow not happen.
Yesterday’s vote in Sleaford displays just how serious it is for remain voting labour and conservative MP’s to vote against the process in all the many leave areas as they will lose quite comprehensively.
There are many on this forum who underestimate Theresa May and cannot understand Brexit means Brexit and a red, white and blue Brexit but for those who mock, the electorate being targeted by TM will not as these are the voters who have had enough of the establishment who take every opportunity to try and impose their view on an angry and disenfranchised majority who have had enough.
Theresa May is presently undertaking a complex and enormous task not faced by any other PM in modern history and there is no one anywhere near her in competence, certainly not Corbyn, Farron, or Sturgeon.
Underestimate Theresa May and you may well be very surprised as she rises in popularity helped by the extraordinary incompetent Jeremy Corbyn, the out of touch Tim Farron who has one third of his MP’s rejecting his and Sarah Olney’s position re the EU, and the SNP who quite frankly are not going to win an Independent referendum at any time in the foreseeable future
I agree that May hasn't done too badly so far with what is potentially a very bad hand, although I think you need to factor in also the government's need to buy some time to work out what and how it exactly intends to do; the wheels of government turn slowly and aren't made for precipitate actions.
It also remains the case that the only hope of stopping Brexit, for those that so wish, is to buy enough time for the potential negative consequences to become sufficiently clear to enough people that there is a clear change of mood in the country. Whether or not you agree with either the tactics or the outcome, those involved would, like May, appear to me to, so far, be making the best of a bad hand.
Not really. Until our voting system is replaced with something more sensible, the only real hope for the LibDems (other than doing what they already do very well, which is blazing the trail for unpopular causes that subsequently become mainstream), is getting out from under the squeeze by replacing one of the other two parties. It was always an illusion to believe supplanting the Tories was ever possible - every country has some kind of Conservative party - and hence becoming its principal alternative is the only game in town. It's a huge mountain to climb, but I would say the LibDems are back at base camp for the first time for thirty five years.
Leaving aside the whistling in the wind about PR, you assume that the main Opposition to the Tories must be a centre-left party. Times have changed. No reason to suppose that the future balance of power cannot or will not be held between a right-wing traditionalist and a centrist or centre-right liberal party.
Eating the soft, social liberal flank of the Conservatives, and then gathering soft left voters to help them beat the Tories (once it becomes apparent to everybody but die-hard socialists that Labour has had it,) seems a perfectly viable route to Opposition to me. If a liberal party could displace Labour as the main Opposition, then I think it would have a much better chance of removing the Conservatives from power than a clapped-out social democratic (or, worse, regressive socialist) party that simply doesn't have the ability to convince enough English voters of its merits anymore.
Tosh. The BNP with a smile - which is what UKIP will amount to without Brexit to aim for, Banks to pay for and Farage to lead - is going nowhere.
Edit/ or perhaps I read your post too quickly? Your latter scenario isn't that clear but if it amounts to LibDem v Tory then we are on the same page?
Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE? The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.
The Lib Dems scored 11% with YouGov in October (and with Ipsos Mori in July.) Details of all recent polls available from:
The Tory vote seems to be pretty solid, so if the Lib Dems are going to get anywhere I reckon it's going to be through soft Left Labour supporters finally giving up on the party in despair and forgiving the Lib Dems for going into Coalition. If that happens then we should see Labour dropping into the low 20s and the Lib Dems rising into the low-to-mid teens in tandem.
I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.
That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.
If it's any consolation, this Lib Dem would be very relaxed about a 'not under any circumstances whatsoever' attitude towards working with Labour. To be honest they are so tribal that they are very difficult to get anywhere with anyway (see Lib-Lab coalition talks 2010 for an example, or Richmond Park.) They seem far more precious than other parties including the Tories about being seen to be right and other people agreeing with the Labour position, rather than genuinely working together. I would be very reluctant about any co-operation with a Corbyn-led Labour party.
On a local level it's nowhere near as bad; we work well with the Labour group on the council, and much respect to the Labour members of Richmond Park who were helping the Lib Dem polling day operation. But it seems there is great hostility from Labour high command.
I do agree that they have done the best to date but I cannot get past the Supreme Court judgement as being the defining moment in Brexit. They said in their closing statement their judgement will not be about stopping the process and when they say how, resistance will become almost politically impossible to that process
Interesting to see that Miliband touched 16% with Yougov as well in January 2012 soon after the EU veto and in November 2014 after walking around Hampstead chatting to strangers on the heath whilst blissfully forgetting the deficit.
I agree that May hasn't done too badly so far with what is potentially a very bad hand, although I think you need to factor in also the government's need to buy some time to work out what and how it exactly intends to do; the wheels of government turn slowly and aren't made for precipitate actions.
It also remains the case that the only hope of stopping Brexit, for those that so wish, is to buy enough time for the potential negative consequences to become sufficiently clear to enough people that there is a clear change of mood in the country. Whether or not you agree with either the tactics or the outcome, those involved would, like May, appear to me to, so far, be making the best of a bad hand.
Right now the British are negotiating with each other about Brexit, and not with the EU, who will actually decide the deal. The issue is that the UK doesn't know what it wants from Europe and never has done. Brexit is forcing the issue for those voted Remain as well as those that voted Leave. Ironically, it's the sprawling Babylon of the EU that is relatively coherent on Brexit, while the supposedly nimble Britain is thrashing around.
The Lib Dems are seeking votes from the 48% who voted Remain.
According to the Ashcroft poll, 42% of Conservatives voted remain so still plenty to try to get to switch to Lib Dem - as well as the 63% Labour inclined electors who voted Remain.
If the whole electorate split along Remain/Leave lines then it's likely that the Tories would win by a landslide and the Lib Dems would end up as the main Opposition, so it would work very well for them. However, the EU referendum, important as it is, will not be the sole determinant factor in the next general election, and there are many interacting trends in terms of the changing patterns of support for all four of the big parties in England and Wales to be considered. We are not going to see Newcastle-upon-Tyne going Lib Dem and every other seat in the North East turning blue or purple, for example.
Most of the people who voted on either side in the EU referendum were not obsessed with Europe, and aren't now either. The original Ukip polls in the low teens nationally, and there is no particular reason to suppose that an anti-Ukip for Remainers would do any better. The Lib Dems need a complete and rounded approach to getting back into a position of strength. My argument is simply that the approach that they appear to have chosen is wrong.
The problem for Labour is that there isn't even the blackest of black swan events that can help them. Even a calamitously handled Brexit wont do them any good.
Labour are drowning and the irony is that if Clegg hadn't made the decision he did in 2010 I'm certain the Lib Dems would now be at least the official opposition.
Is 11% for the Lib Dems the highest You Gov rating since the GE? The narrative could move on to LIb Dems overtaking UKIP and them being pushed back into forth place.
I've been sceptical about the prospects of the remaining Labour support being willing to cross over and vote for the Lib Dems in a general election, but if I'm wrong then it wouldn't take very much movement to get the yellows back up into third place in vote share. Assuming that Ukip doesn't work out how to bleed Labour of more votes itself, of course.
The Conservative poll support is as soft as putty , as demonstrated in the council by elections this week and in the last 6 months .
Try to put your hatred of the tories aside Mark, I know it's hard. Those of us who are not members of a party look at Labour and the vast majority of us recoil in horror.
That is the imperative at next election - keep them out.
If it's any consolation, this Lib Dem would be very relaxed about a 'not under any circumstances whatsoever' attitude towards working with Labour. To be honest they are so tribal that they are very difficult to get anywhere with anyway (see Lib-Lab coalition talks 2010 for an example, or Richmond Park.) They seem far more precious than other parties including the Tories about being seen to be right and other people agreeing with the Labour position, rather than genuinely working together. I would be very reluctant about any co-operation with a Corbyn-led Labour party.
On a local level it's nowhere near as bad; we work well with the Labour group on the council, and much respect to the Labour members of Richmond Park who were helping the Lib Dem polling day operation. But it seems there is great hostility from Labour high command.
I find being involved in active politics instructive in this regard. Sitting at home, I would regard Labour as preferable to the Tories, even now. But, having engaged with local politicians over many years, my observation is that, whilst Labour councillors are easier to agree with whilst in opposition, in power they are generally worse than the Tories.
In 2010 it remains my view that any sort of government with Labour would have been a disaster, and that remains my view now. Quite how the LibDems position themselves for the next general election, I do not know - the well-tried tactic is to avoid the question as far as possible. Most likely, the prospect of Labour getting anything other than a complete drubbing will be so obvious that the best response to the coalition question will just be to laugh.
Interesting to see that Miliband touched 16% with Yougov as well in January 2012 soon after the EU veto and in November 2014 after walking around Hampstead chatting to strangers on the heath whilst blissfully forgetting the deficit.
I do agree that they have done the best to date but I cannot get past the Supreme Court judgement as being the defining moment in Brexit. They said in their closing statement their judgement will not be about stopping the process and when they say how, resistance will become almost politically impossible to that process
As far as the courts were concerned, the case was never about stopping the process. That was made very clear from the outset. The Commons has already made clear it will vote to trigger Article 50. The issue is what kind of Brexit we get. A red, white and blue Brexit designed primarily to prevent the Conservative party from falling apart and Ms May in office is probably not the ideal one for the country.
Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are of course all disasters. But all share the same protective factors- they will blame external forces for their terrible impact, rather than look inwards at themselves.
Corbyn will blame the Media and the Parliamentary Labour Party; Brexit will blame treacherous Remoaners, the Media, and the EU; Trump will blame the Media and anyone who doesn't agree with him
Two are terrible leaders unfit to govern, one is a terrible policy. But all three are seriously entrenched, well defended and here for the duration.....
I do agree that they have done the best to date but I cannot get past the Supreme Court judgement as being the defining moment in Brexit. They said in their closing statement their judgement will not be about stopping the process and when they say how, resistance will become almost politically impossible to that process
Yes, resistance to starting the process is more or less impossible already. But then, in aftermath of the vote, that was always highly likely. The question now will be how it ends.
I do agree that they have done the best to date but I cannot get past the Supreme Court judgement as being the defining moment in Brexit. They said in their closing statement their judgement will not be about stopping the process and when they say how, resistance will become almost politically impossible to that process
Yes, resistance to starting the process is more or less impossible already. But then, in aftermath of the vote, that was always highly likely. The question now will be how it ends.
How it all ends....not at all well I'm afraid......
I feel like a history student stuck in a parallel world....you understand where it's all going wrong, you can see where it's heading, and yet you are living right in the middle of it and can do sweet FA about the outcome.
Populism is a terrible thing, and history seems to repeat itself in cycles.
I do agree that they have done the best to date but I cannot get past the Supreme Court judgement as being the defining moment in Brexit. They said in their closing statement their judgement will not be about stopping the process and when they say how, resistance will become almost politically impossible to that process
Yes, resistance to starting the process is more or less impossible already. But then, in aftermath of the vote, that was always highly likely. The question now will be how it ends.
How it all ends....not at all well I'm afraid......
I feel like a history student stuck in a parallel world....you understand where it's all going wrong, you can see where it's heading, and yet you are living right in the middle of it and can do sweet FA about the outcome.
Populism is a terrible thing, and history seems to repeat itself in cycles.
Surely we are privileged to be here and now knowing that history and politics students may well be lectured and be writing essays about all this when we are sitting somewhere under a blanket looking out to sea?
What is it with the BBC’s favourite in-house historians, the last if IIRC was Tristram Hunt...
Dan snow was one of the faces of pro AV campaign as well.
Presumably the BBC’s editorial guidelines concerning presenters and reporters primarily associated with the BBC does not apply to Dan?
When was Dan Snow last on the BBC, aside from repeats? I haven't seen anything new with him in for a while (though his dad was being befuddled by trains earlier in the year).
What is it with the BBC’s favourite in-house historians, the last if IIRC was Tristram Hunt...
Dan snow was one of the faces of pro AV campaign as well.
Presumably the BBC’s editorial guidelines concerning presenters and reporters primarily associated with the BBC does not apply to Dan?
When was Dan Snow last on the BBC, aside from repeats? I haven't seen anything new with him in for a while (though his dad was being befuddled by trains earlier in the year).
I do agree that they have done the best to date but I cannot get past the Supreme Court judgement as being the defining moment in Brexit. They said in their closing statement their judgement will not be about stopping the process and when they say how, resistance will become almost politically impossible to that process
Yes, resistance to starting the process is more or less impossible already. But then, in aftermath of the vote, that was always highly likely. The question now will be how it ends.
How it all ends....not at all well I'm afraid......
I feel like a history student stuck in a parallel world....you understand where it's all going wrong, you can see where it's heading, and yet you are living right in the middle of it and can do sweet FA about the outcome.
Populism is a terrible thing, and history seems to repeat itself in cycles.
What you can be certain of is that it will all be someone else's fault.
History does go in cycles. And the right is currently in the ascendant. When it fails, as it will, the left will take over.
I agree that May hasn't done too badly so far with what is potentially a very bad hand, although I think you need to factor in also the government's need to buy some time to work out what and how it exactly intends to do; the wheels of government turn slowly and aren't made for precipitate actions.
It also remains the case that the only hope of stopping Brexit, for those that so wish, is to buy enough time for the potential negative consequences to become sufficiently clear to enough people that there is a clear change of mood in the country. Whether or not you agree with either the tactics or the outcome, those involved would, like May, appear to me to, so far, be making the best of a bad hand.
Right now the British are negotiating with each other about Brexit, and not with the EU, who will actually decide the deal. The issue is that the UK doesn't know what it wants from Europe and never has done. Brexit is forcing the issue for those voted Remain as well as those that voted Leave. Ironically, it's the sprawling Babylon of the EU that is relatively coherent on Brexit, while the supposedly nimble Britain is thrashing around.
I cannot recall ever voting for anything or anyone where I completely agreed with the issue or the person in receipt of my vote. The EU seems coherent at the moment because its self interest and therefore its strategy is obvious. The UK has a minefield of domestic interests to negotiate. I'm a Brexiter but I know that compromises will have to be made and that one man's compromise is another man's sell out. TM's doing pretty well at the moment judging by the sources of the frustration being generated by her actions (or seeming lack thereof).
The problem for Labour is that there isn't even the blackest of black swan events that can help them. Even a calamitously handled Brexit wont do them any good.
Labour are drowning and the irony is that if Clegg hadn't made the decision he did in 2010 I'm certain the Lib Dems would now be at least the official opposition.
Roger, to be honest, Labour made themselves irrelevant when they elected Ed and refused to take on the deficit. David Miliband's winning speech that he never gave where he addressed the deficit head on was fundamental to the party re-gaining credibility. It was an epochal speech that would have been one of the most important in the party's history that sadly went the way of the waste paper basket.
Brexit of course marginalises the party further....not only have they absolutely nothing to say about the deficit, but now they haven't anything to say about Brexit...these are the two most defining issues of the day. And they have nothing to say about immigration- but this is linked to Brexit. And they have an incompetent, out of touch leader who would much rather talk about nuclear disarmament and Israel.
To be honest I am quite happy with the Tory Government at the minute. I know they brought alot of this on us and all that but could you imagine Labour in power, at this time, with these challenges? Better this ramshackle, Tory technocratic Government.
Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are of course all disasters. But all share the same protective factors- they will blame external forces for their terrible impact, rather than look inwards at themselves.
Corbyn will blame the Media and the Parliamentary Labour Party; Brexit will blame treacherous Remoaners, the Media, and the EU; Trump will blame the Media and anyone who doesn't agree with him
Two are terrible leaders unfit to govern, one is a terrible policy. But all three are seriously entrenched, well defended and here for the duration.....
I do agree that they have done the best to date but I cannot get past the Supreme Court judgement as being the defining moment in Brexit. They said in their closing statement their judgement will not be about stopping the process and when they say how, resistance will become almost politically impossible to that process
As far as the courts were concerned, the case was never about stopping the process. That was made very clear from the outset. The Commons has already made clear it will vote to trigger Article 50. The issue is what kind of Brexit we get. A red, white and blue Brexit designed primarily to prevent the Conservative party from falling apart and Ms May in office is probably not the ideal one for the country.
Just watching the latest episode of Vikings, Series 4, which is well made and takes fewer apparent liberties with history than we would normally expect from our American friends.
One wonders whether it is all leading towards revealing, to a potentially outraged British audience, that the Battle of Hastings was actually a civil war between rival groups of Vikings, and that all the French v British stuff we were taught in school is largely stuff and nonsense.....
I do agree that they have done the best to date but I cannot get past the Supreme Court judgement as being the defining moment in Brexit. They said in their closing statement their judgement will not be about stopping the process and when they say how, resistance will become almost politically impossible to that process
Yes, resistance to starting the process is more or less impossible already. But then, in aftermath of the vote, that was always highly likely. The question now will be how it ends.
And that will not be clear for many years. I do believe everyone needs to agree to let the government get on with it on the following principles
Access to the single market Control of immigration Exit from ECJ Ability to do trade deals worldwide Existing EU citizens here and UK citizens abroad guaranteed their status
The problem for Labour is that there isn't even the blackest of black swan events that can help them. Even a calamitously handled Brexit wont do them any good.
Labour are drowning and the irony is that if Clegg hadn't made the decision he did in 2010 I'm certain the Lib Dems would now be at least the official opposition.
Roger, to be honest, Labour made themselves irrelevant when they elected Ed and refused to take on the deficit. David Miliband's winning speech that he never gave where he addressed the deficit head on was fundamental to the party re-gaining credibility. It was an epochal speech that would have been one of the most important in the party's history that sadly went the way of the waste paper basket.
Brexit of course marginalises the party further....not only have they absolutely nothing to say about the deficit, but now they haven't anything to say about Brexit...these are the two most defining issues of the day. And they have nothing to say about immigration- but this is linked to Brexit. And they have an incompetent, out of touch leader who would much rather talk about nuclear disarmament and Israel.
To be honest I am quite happy with the Tory Government at the minute. I know they brought alot of this on us and all that but could you imagine Labour in power, at this time, with these challenges? Better this ramshackle, Tory technocratic Government.
The Tories had plenty to say on the deficit and on immigration. They didn't actually deliver any of it, but talking about it again 5 years later was, for some reason, enough to please the voters.
Just watching the latest episode of Vikings, Series 4, which is well made and takes fewer apparent liberties with history than we would normally expect from our American friends.
One wonders whether it is all leading towards revealing, to a potentially outraged British audience, that the Battle of Hastings was actually a civil war between rival groups of Vikings, and that all the French v British stuff we were taught in school is largely stuff and nonsense.....
I have to say I'm struggling with Series 4.....it looks like it's had a budget austerity axe swinging against it's production costs (from series 3), and the cast all seem a little bored and going through the motions....
I'm watching Narcos- and experiencing full blown dejavu....from the first episode I have a sensation I've seen it all before and am driving my wife nuts because I'm telling her exactly what happens in the plot even though it is impossible I have seen it....
Mr. Observer, yes and no. Some events mark the end of an era. Alas, poor Byzantium.
Byzantium was conquered. As long as there are democratic elections there will be electoral cycles.
I think you fail to consider the fact that state socialism requires taxpayer largesse. That's not happening again, ever. We can't afford left wing. We can't really afford Theresa's right wing.
Just watching the latest episode of Vikings, Series 4, which is well made and takes fewer apparent liberties with history than we would normally expect from our American friends.
One wonders whether it is all leading towards revealing, to a potentially outraged British audience, that the Battle of Hastings was actually a civil war between rival groups of Vikings, and that all the French v British stuff we were taught in school is largely stuff and nonsense.....
I have to say I'm struggling with Series 4.....it looks like it's had a budget austerity axe swinging against it's production costs (from series 3), and the cast all seem a little bored and going through the motions....
I'm watching Narcos- and experiencing full blown dejavu....from the first episode I have a sensation I've seen it all before and am driving my wife nuts because I'm telling her exactly what happens in the plot even though it is impossible I have seen it....
It's been an unexpected success, so I would imagine they still have money to spend. Perhaps they saved the budget for the episodes when Bjorn sails his longships into the Mediterranean and settles in Sicily - one of the most surprising early history facts, for those that don't know it?
The problem for Labour is that there isn't even the blackest of black swan events that can help them. Even a calamitously handled Brexit wont do them any good.
Labour are drowning and the irony is that if Clegg hadn't made the decision he did in 2010 I'm certain the Lib Dems would now be at least the official opposition.
Roger, to be honest, Labour made themselves irrelevant when they elected Ed and refused to take on the deficit. David Miliband's winning speech that he never gave where he addressed the deficit head on was fundamental to the party re-gaining credibility. It was an epochal speech that would have been one of the most important in the party's history that sadly went the way of the waste paper basket.
Brexit of course marginalises the party further....not only have they absolutely nothing to say about the deficit, but now they haven't anything to say about Brexit...these are the two most defining issues of the day. And they have nothing to say about immigration- but this is linked to Brexit. And they have an incompetent, out of touch leader who would much rather talk about nuclear disarmament and Israel.
To be honest I am quite happy with the Tory Government at the minute. I know they brought alot of this on us and all that but could you imagine Labour in power, at this time, with these challenges? Better this ramshackle, Tory technocratic Government.
The Tories had plenty to say on the deficit and on immigration. They didn't actually deliver any of it, but talking about it again 5 years later was, for some reason, enough to please the voters.
You are absolutely right...the Tories endless austerity programme and their inability to deal with immigration led pretty much the way of Brexit. This has been coupled with the fact that it has never been easier to make money...just own assets and see how much they grow. We are in it together...snigger...
But seriously Labour, at this time? Nothing to say on the deficit, nothing on immigration, now nothing on Brexit....and with Corbyn to boot.
Mr. Observer, yes and no. Some events mark the end of an era. Alas, poor Byzantium.
Byzantium was conquered. As long as there are democratic elections there will be electoral cycles.
I think you fail to consider the fact that state socialism requires taxpayer largesse. That's not happening again, ever. We can't afford left wing. We can't really afford Theresa's right wing.
The world has never been wealthier. We can afford to redistribute some of that wealth to ensure that everyone in this G8 economy of ours has a decent shot at a decent life and never ends up having to worry about finding a roof to live under, paying for heating to stay warm and having enough food to eat three square meals a day. Once you set people free from such worries they have the time and energy to do the things that deliver prosperity. That is not socialism.
I do agree that they have done the best to date but I cannot get past the Supreme Court judgement as being the defining moment in Brexit. They said in their closing statement their judgement will not be about stopping the process and when they say how, resistance will become almost politically impossible to that process
Yes, resistance to starting the process is more or less impossible already. But then, in aftermath of the vote, that was always highly likely. The question now will be how it ends.
And that will not be clear for many years. I do believe everyone needs to agree to let the government get on with it on the following principles
Access to the single market Control of immigration Exit from ECJ Ability to do trade deals worldwide Existing EU citizens here and UK citizens abroad guaranteed their status
Comments
Nor is the Continuity Remain angle likely to help nearly so much as they believe. Few constituencies have Remain biases as large as that in Richmond Park; many Remain voters are pragmatists and will be more interested in the composition of the next Government than the narrow European question, especially if we're already out, or most of the way out, of the door by the time of the next election; and out of those seats the Tories won off the Lib Dems last year, the bulk were in areas that voted by various majorities to Leave, anyway. Consolidation of the Remain vote in these areas is likely to be negated by former Ukip backers returning to the Conservatives.
As with Labour, so with the Liberal Democrats: the party has followed the hearts of the membership rather than the heads of the strategists. They would be in a far stronger position as the Yellow Tory Party - hoovering up economically conservative but socially liberal voters, wary of the Conservatives' more traditionalist positioning and arguing for a soft line on Brexit. An organisation with this positioning could totally rule out supporting a Labour or Lab/Nat administration, and have a good chance of being believed by its target audience.
But this is all hypothetical, of course. In the real world, you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
That is their normal modus operandi..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjJDyIAI4SI
Rejoice!
According to the Ashcroft poll, 42% of Conservatives voted remain so still plenty to try to get to switch to Lib Dem - as well as the 63% Labour inclined electors who voted Remain.
See http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
Hate and bile maybe, but that is as far it seems to go.
Lib Dems make small gains off UKIP and come out broadly flat against the Tories. The Tories hoover up UKIP.
She could have served it earlier but then risked later disruption by a series of judicial reviews with the possibility of the leaving process being completely derailed. She could also have accepted the High Court’s judgement but again risked further challenges.
By taking it all the way with the Supreme Court and stating that she will respect their judgement and proceed accordingly it will make obstruction by those who want to stop the process almost impossible politically.
Whatever she submits to Parliament she is bound to issue a challenge to all those MP’s and Lords who want to prevent the process to respect the democratic will of the people and the Supreme Court’s judgement. At a stroke she will nullify Gina Miller and other remainer’s quite obvious tactic to slow the whole process hoping that it will somehow not happen.
Yesterday’s vote in Sleaford displays just how serious it is for remain voting labour and conservative MP’s to vote against the process in all the many leave areas as they will lose quite comprehensively.
There are many on this forum who underestimate Theresa May and cannot understand Brexit means Brexit and a red, white and blue Brexit but for those who mock, the electorate being targeted by TM will not as these are the voters who have had enough of the establishment who take every opportunity to try and impose their view on an angry and disenfranchised majority who have had enough.
Theresa May is presently undertaking a complex and enormous task not faced by any other PM in modern history and there is no one anywhere near her in competence, certainly not Corbyn, Farron, or Sturgeon.
Underestimate Theresa May and you may well be very surprised as she rises in popularity helped by the extraordinary incompetent Jeremy Corbyn, the out of touch Tim Farron who has one third of his MP’s rejecting his and Sarah Olney’s position re the EU, and the SNP who quite frankly are not going to win an Independent referendum at any time in the foreseeable future
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/dec/08/dan-snow-crowdfunds-pro-eu-mp?CMP=twt_gu
Not winning over the below line comments.
Eating the soft, social liberal flank of the Conservatives, and then gathering soft left voters to help them beat the Tories (once it becomes apparent to everybody but die-hard socialists that Labour has had it,) seems a perfectly viable route to Opposition to me. If a liberal party could displace Labour as the main Opposition, then I think it would have a much better chance of removing the Conservatives from power than a clapped-out social democratic (or, worse, regressive socialist) party that simply doesn't have the ability to convince enough English voters of its merits anymore.
Corbyn PM rating 09/12/16 - 16% Labour to poll ......
Assumption is that 4% of the electorate are Labour supporters who will vote for a leader they know is useless.
It also remains the case that the only hope of stopping Brexit, for those that so wish, is to buy enough time for the potential negative consequences to become sufficiently clear to enough people that there is a clear change of mood in the country. Whether or not you agree with either the tactics or the outcome, those involved would, like May, appear to me to, so far, be making the best of a bad hand.
Not sure how I feel about this.. almost underhand.
Edit/ or perhaps I read your post too quickly? Your latter scenario isn't that clear but if it amounts to LibDem v Tory then we are on the same page?
We make fun of Ed but he had some successes.
On a local level it's nowhere near as bad; we work well with the Labour group on the council, and much respect to the Labour members of Richmond Park who were helping the Lib Dem polling day operation. But it seems there is great hostility from Labour high command.
I do agree that they have done the best to date but I cannot get past the Supreme Court judgement as being the defining moment in Brexit. They said in their closing statement their judgement will not be about stopping the process and when they say how, resistance will become almost politically impossible to that process
Most of the people who voted on either side in the EU referendum were not obsessed with Europe, and aren't now either. The original Ukip polls in the low teens nationally, and there is no particular reason to suppose that an anti-Ukip for Remainers would do any better. The Lib Dems need a complete and rounded approach to getting back into a position of strength. My argument is simply that the approach that they appear to have chosen is wrong.
Labour are drowning and the irony is that if Clegg hadn't made the decision he did in 2010 I'm certain the Lib Dems would now be at least the official opposition.
In 2010 it remains my view that any sort of government with Labour would have been a disaster, and that remains my view now. Quite how the LibDems position themselves for the next general election, I do not know - the well-tried tactic is to avoid the question as far as possible. Most likely, the prospect of Labour getting anything other than a complete drubbing will be so obvious that the best response to the coalition question will just be to laugh.
Corbyn will blame the Media and the Parliamentary Labour Party;
Brexit will blame treacherous Remoaners, the Media, and the EU;
Trump will blame the Media and anyone who doesn't agree with him
Two are terrible leaders unfit to govern, one is a terrible policy. But all three are seriously entrenched, well defended and here for the duration.....
I feel like a history student stuck in a parallel world....you understand where it's all going wrong, you can see where it's heading, and yet you are living right in the middle of it and can do sweet FA about the outcome.
Populism is a terrible thing, and history seems to repeat itself in cycles.
https://twitter.com/PollingDigest/status/807251345128484864
https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/807228505926893569
Edit: ooops, I even watched one of them:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Snow
History does go in cycles. And the right is currently in the ascendant. When it fails, as it will, the left will take over.
Brexit of course marginalises the party further....not only have they absolutely nothing to say about the deficit, but now they haven't anything to say about Brexit...these are the two most defining issues of the day. And they have nothing to say about immigration- but this is linked to Brexit. And they have an incompetent, out of touch leader who would much rather talk about nuclear disarmament and Israel.
To be honest I am quite happy with the Tory Government at the minute. I know they brought alot of this on us and all that but could you imagine Labour in power, at this time, with these challenges? Better this ramshackle, Tory technocratic Government.
One wonders whether it is all leading towards revealing, to a potentially outraged British audience, that the Battle of Hastings was actually a civil war between rival groups of Vikings, and that all the French v British stuff we were taught in school is largely stuff and nonsense.....
Constantine Dragases might just have the most tragically heroic death in history.
Access to the single market
Control of immigration
Exit from ECJ
Ability to do trade deals worldwide
Existing EU citizens here and UK citizens abroad guaranteed their status
I'm watching Narcos- and experiencing full blown dejavu....from the first episode I have a sensation I've seen it all before and am driving my wife nuts because I'm telling her exactly what happens in the plot even though it is impossible I have seen it....
But seriously Labour, at this time? Nothing to say on the deficit, nothing on immigration, now nothing on Brexit....and with Corbyn to boot.
Must be nailed on for Dutch ambassador to the US