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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Defection watch. Betting on Jacob Rees-Mogg to defect to UKIP

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970

    Am I right in thinking that past membership of the NF disqualifies someone from becoming a UKIP candidate, or is that only the BNP?
    The bit the story skips over is her previous roles in the Tory party, from whence she came to UKiP
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238
    edited December 2016
    FF43 said:


    I know this gets boring for everyone else. For me too. But one last pass round for luck, because it is important stuff. Other countries will not stop making preferential trade agreements with us because of hypothetical restrictions imposed by us being in a supposedly unfavourable customs union with the EU. They will not be doing preferential trade agreements with us because they take forever, consume to much political capital and no-one wants to do them anymore. The choice isn't between outside the EU trading system and a bunch of much more valuable FTAs with third countries versus relying on the EU trading system. It's between outside the EU trading system with no FTAs, operating on an MFN basis with everyone, with extra trade barriers, versus relying on the EU trading system. Dealing with the world as it is rather than as we would like it to be should change the discussion IMO.
    It does get boring because you miss the very basic point. It is not that being in the customs union means other countries won't want to make preferential trade agreements with us. It is that membership of the customs union makes it illegal for us to conduct trade agreements with them because it would breach the common external tariff. It is one of the reasons the EFTA countries stayed out of the customs union.
  • Am I right in thinking that past membership of the NF disqualifies someone from becoming a UKIP candidate, or is that only the BNP?
    Unless they have changed the rule book it always included bans on former members of both BNP and NF.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090

    It does get boring because you miss the very basic point. It is not that being in the customs union means other countries won't want to make preferential trade agreements with us. It is that membership of the customs union makes it illegal for us to conduct trade agreements with them because it would breach the common external tariff. It is one of the reasons the EFTA countries stayed out of the customs union.
    Point of order that is not particularly relevent to the debate... even the 'customs union' with the EU has more that one meaning. Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, but is not in the EU customs union. It therefore has FTA with countries that the EU does not, despite being in a customs union with it.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017


    Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
    Last year GE, LibDem 5.7%, UKIP 15.7% in strong Leave constituency
    UKIP claiming they can win, so expect LibDem vote to be squeezed and deposit lost?
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/739585/ukip-byelection-sleaford-north-hykeham-victoria-ayling-richmond-park-sarah-olney
  • rcs1000 said:

    Btw, you need to change the title...
    Of course, of course :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970
    SeanT said:

    Hear hear. Perfectly put. This comment should be pinned to the top of every Brexit PB debate.
    That is a bit unfair. Most of us do not have the luxury of being able to stage the debate with ourselves, and need someone with a different view to bounce off.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    IanB2 said:

    The bit the story skips over is her previous roles in the Tory party, from whence she came to UKiP
    She is pretty well known in Lincs as a Councillor, and both Tory and UKIP PPC in Grimsby. Well known or notorious anyway.

    The 1/4 for second place with PP is very poor value. Lab for 2nd at 15/2 is v good value. He is a local WWC Trade Unionist bin lorry driver, now pro-Brexit.

  • This....It was the first thing I was told in my induction of PhD #1.
    I did my first ever experiments for (what was to become) my PhD project during my final year summer project as an undergrad.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970

    She is pretty well known in Lincs as a Councillor, and both Tory and UKIP PPC in Grimsby. Well known or notorious anyway.

    The 1/4 for second place with PP is very poor value. Lab for 2nd at 15/2 is v good value. He is a local WWC Trade Unionist bin lorry driver, now pro-Brexit.

    Labour's odds against winning are twice the LibDems, which seems off the money, I would have thought both equally unlikely.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017

    Unless they have changed the rule book it always included bans on former members of both BNP and NF.
    Will she have to withdraw ;-) ?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Point of order that is not particularly relevent to the debate... even the 'customs union' with the EU has more that one meaning. Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, but is not in the EU customs union. It therefore has FTA with countries that the EU does not, despite being in a customs union with it.
    Correct. I was speaking specifically about the EU Customs Union rather than that with Turkey. They are not the same thing and do not carry the same limitations.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2016

    Last year GE, LibDem 5.7%, UKIP 15.7% in strong Leave constituency
    UKIP claiming they can win, so expect LibDem vote to be squeezed and deposit lost?
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/739585/ukip-byelection-sleaford-north-hykeham-victoria-ayling-richmond-park-sarah-olney
    The Constituency was 38% Remain, and LDs were in second place in 2010. Obviously not getting the attention of Richmond, but the same goes for other parties. Have any party bigwigs been for any party? Farron is there this weekend I think.
  • TSE to UKIP up to 100,000,000,000/1 on BetFair now :lol:
  • I did my first ever experiments for (what was to become) my PhD project during my final year summer project as an undergrad.
    It is also incorrect to say that undergraduate degrees do not contain original research work. 20% of the Geology degree I did was a mapping project, part of which was then used in a paper for Nature.
  • I don't know why Boris Johnson bothers to do these Sunday "political" slots. He is totally unsuited to today's dumb-downed media. He is best when he is allowed to formulate his comments but because he is constantly interrupted and the whole thing just becomes a dog's breakfast.

    If Marr was bad enough, then Peston was totally out of order. They seemed more intent of making fun of him and then the cake at the end was embarrassing. Peston screeching questions at him, was not a good look. I shall just go back to ignoring all these programmes, even Andrew Neil, who seems to be struggling to get any "heavyweight" politician's on.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    IanB2 said:

    Labour's odds against winning are twice the LibDems, which seems off the money, I would have thought both equally unlikely.
    These are the odds for second place. Tories first place obviously.
  • More Fake News problems I see....

    http://order-order.com/2016/12/03/ambassadors-say-sky-news-boris-story-untrue/

    When Facebook and Twitter stick their "automated" (insert poorly paid set of interns) censoring systems in place, seems like some people might need to be careful!
  • The Constituency was 38% Remain, and LDs were in second place in 2010. Obviously not getting the attention of Richmond, but the same goes for other parties. Have any party bigwigs been for any party? Farron is there this weekend I think.
    Living in the constituency I can certainly say the whole event seems very low key indeed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970

    These are the odds for second place. Tories first place obviously.
    Sorry I should have made clear I was looking at the win odds on Betfair, not picking up the figures in the OP directly
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited December 2016

    I don't know why Boris Johnson bothers to do these Sunday "political" slots. He is totally unsuited to today's dumb-downed media. He is best when he is allowed to formulate his comments but because he is constantly interrupted and the whole thing just becomes a dog's breakfast.

    If Marr was bad enough, then Peston was totally out of order. They seemed more intent of making fun of him and then the cake at the end was embarrassing. Peston screeching questions at him, was not a good look. I shall just go back to ignoring all these programmes, even Andrew Neil, who seems to be struggling to get any "heavyweight" politician's on.

    The demise of the long form interview is both sad and bad. Instead it is all about 10 mins where the interviewer is looking for a "gotcha" moment and the politician unwilling to say much...what results is often the interviewer talking more than the guest and the viewer none the wiser.

    The best way to hold politicians to account is the long form interview and letting them dig their own graves.
  • Will she have to withdraw ;-) ?
    No idea. I assume it is too late to change things now but it would be fun to see her immediately expelled from the party in the unlikely event she won.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    So it is Norway - official. It had to be.

    Screw the Leavers !
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017

    The Constituency was 38% Remain, and LDs were in second place in 2010. Obviously not getting the attention of Richmond, but the same goes for other parties. Have any party bigwigs been for any party? Farron is there this weekend I think.
    Yes, 62% Leave and UKIP on 15.7%, about 1.5% away from 2nd place. Of course Tories have been above or practically on 50% since 2001.
    Anything other than a Tory victory looks extremely unlikely. The interest will come in seeing if UKIP can squeeze the LDs and Labour, if Labour can maintain 2nd place or if the LDs can progress.
    This is a good prospect for UKIP, they sat out Richmond and should have used that time to concentrate on Sleaford, it's totally understandable that the LibDems ignored it until the final week.
  • surbiton said:

    So it is Norway - official. It had to be.

    Screw the Leavers !

    Oh I hope so. Apart from being the option I wanted, I have a £100 bet with Richard Nabavi that that is where we will end up.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017

    No idea. I assume it is too late to change things now but it would be fun to see her immediately expelled from the party in the unlikely event she won.
    Rules is rules.
    Seventeen minutes late, not on leadership ballot.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-leadership-hopeful-steven-woolfe-misses-application-deadline-by-17-minutes-a7165311.html
    Former member of NF, expelled.
    Surely?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Bournemouth are going to thrash Liverpool today, I can feel it.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited December 2016

    More Fake News problems I see....

    http://order-order.com/2016/12/03/ambassadors-say-sky-news-boris-story-untrue/

    When Facebook and Twitter stick their "automated" (insert poorly paid set of interns) censoring systems in place, seems like some people might need to be careful!

    It's a very ill-judged monster that's come back to bite the MSM on the arse. I've seen all manner of debunked stories raising their heads to demonstrate the point. It's dragged the whole sector down and played straight into Trump's hands.

    Doh, like that hasn't happened two dozen times already. I honestly think now that the MSM are in such a groupthink/circle the wagons mode that they can't see their own self-harm is totally counter-productive.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Fantasy football this week is those who had Sanchez as captain and those who did not.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Last year GE, LibDem 5.7%, UKIP 15.7% in strong Leave constituency
    UKIP claiming they can win, so expect LibDem vote to be squeezed and deposit lost?
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/739585/ukip-byelection-sleaford-north-hykeham-victoria-ayling-richmond-park-sarah-olney
    Or, the 62% split between Tory and UKIP and the Libs march through ?
  • I see the rumour mill is suggesting Paul Nuttall may go for Andy Burnham's Leigh seat, which has been a Labour seat for over 90 years. They would vote for a Labour candidate even if that candidate had been dead a week. Having lived there, it was a complete waste of time even bothering to vote for anyone else.

    Times are a changing though and it's quite possible UKIP could make a breakthrough but I doubt it.

    I predict that Ed Balls will go for this ultra safe seat.

  • NEW THREAD

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970

    Yes, 62% Leave and UKIP on 15.7%, about 1.5% away from 2nd place. Of course Tories have been above or practically on 50% since 2001.
    Anything other than a Tory victory looks extremely unlikely. The interest will come in seeing if UKIP can squeeze the LDs and Labour, if Labour can maintain 2nd place or if the LDs can progress.
    This is a good prospect for UKIP, they sat out Richmond and should have used that time to concentrate on Sleaford, it's totally understandable that the LibDems ignored it until the final week.
    Hence the Tories feeding the dirt they already have on her to the press for the final weekend.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Oh I hope so. Apart from being the option I wanted, I have a £100 bet with Richard Nabavi that that is where we will end up.
    I will accept it. It has a sort of FoM , right ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Living in the constituency I can certainly say the whole event seems very low key indeed.
    Good for the LDs. They should play their Remain card. Odd that it may seem. Even Corbyn's candidate is a Leavers , I am told.
  • Alistair said:

    Fantasy football this week is those who had Sanchez as captain and those who did not.

    Cough....
This discussion has been closed.