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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Defection watch. Betting on Jacob Rees-Mogg to defect to UKIP
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Defection watch. Betting on Jacob Rees-Mogg to defect to UKIP
Paddy Power have a market up whether some politicians will defect by 2018. On initial glance this looks like a market designed to solely enrich Paddy Power, I did think of backing Douglas Carswell doing a Churchill and defecting back, but given the precedent he has set, he won’t wish to inflict another by election on the voters of Clacton, so that’s that bet ruled out.
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But none of the odds are great; defections aren't nearly as common as they used to be.
And I cannot see JRM fitting in very well with UKIP's emerging core demographic.
He's not exactly the image that the new UKIP leader is trying to project.
Ah, thanks to google I can read it. Do the Rees-Moggs still live there?
Some pretty daft defection bets from Paddy imho, although Carswell to Tory is a possibility.
Rees-Mogg to UKIP seems unlikely but, as post A50 negotiations unfurl only time will tell.
Only marginally less than the share of the country's IQ I'd imagine
Prick with a Fork
These people must be so much fun at parties. https://t.co/ai5hzwCTT1
Would the bet still be valid in that case? Or does it have to be a formal defection between parties?
100/1 would be good odds but not 12/1
The second one is not possible, as Jeremy Corbyn and George Osborne were both remainers.
What this whole thing has exposed is a really nasty fault line in politics and society. Under Blair, and to a great extent Thatcher as well, small cliques of corrupt and narcissistic self interest groups dominated politics and distracted attention from the real problems (e.g. the NUT claiming that GM schools were the real problem in education, allowing Labour to ignore the real problems of understaffing and bureaucracy that were at least partly the NUT's fault and which has throttled education ever since). Anyone who was not in those groups was simply ignored.
To misquote David Wong's superb article on Trump, Brexit is a brick through our windows: 'Are you assholes listening now?' I'm willing to. What worries me is that so many remainers are so sore and shocked that they are devoting all their energy to mudslinging, insults and trying to get round the result without addressing these fundamental problems. Which is going to end badly for all of us.
Another superb article on Brexit is the one in The Guardian by Stephen Hawking.
http://tinyurl.com/gpeggry
"I’m sad about the result, but if I’ve learned one lesson in my life it is to make the best of the hand you are dealt. Now we must learn to live outside the EU, but in order to manage that successfully we need to understand why British people made the choice that they did. I believe that wealth, the way we understand it and the way we share it, played a crucial role in their decision. "
As some of us have previously argued, we have forgotten as a society to ask - in relation to globalisation and immigration and similar - who enjoys the benefits and who pays the costs.
Until we do - and we will need to do this for Brexit, whatever version we end up with - and ensure that the costs and benefits are more fairly shared, we will have no chance of healing the divisions in our society.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/craigsilverman/how-macedonia-became-a-global-hub-for-pro-trump-misinfo?utm_term=.rs5BR2A2B#.wyYwY767w
The SWP's time has come at last.
Staying in the customs union, as suggested, would be flaccid, not merely soft. It seems Mr. Eagles' forecast of a departure in name only may come true.
Well, it'd certainly make my decision of who to vote for at the next election an interesting one.
Edited extra bit: there's a trailer for The Last of Us - Part 2 up on Youtube for those interested.
voted for Clinton, over 2600 counties producing just 36% of output voted Trump.
It seems that those doing well out of the status quo vote for the status quo, the rest are currently protesting for change.
Why would I want to bail out people who trash things that I care about?
Until we at least make the effort to try and understand each other, we're doomed to stay in a vicious circle of misunderstanding and suspicion consisting of a dialogue of the deaf (please excuse the mixed metaphor). Your post doesn't exactly fill me with confidence that we can sort this mess out.
Worth a try I guess. What could possibly go wrong?
One of the reason remain lost might be that people's rationale for voting either way was much more complex than they thought.
I suspect Corbyn would have been a strong supporter.
[It's possible I'll vote Conservative (still need to see how negotiations go), although I'd suggest you alter your rhetoric when trying to persuade people that's a good idea, even if they do have the temerity to indicate they might vote elsewhere if they're unhappy with how the Government handles the single biggest issue facing the country today].
I'd guess/hope that post of yours was tongue in cheek, but it came across as rather genuine.
https://twitter.com/spikedonline/status/805124315494645760
The miserable odds of just evens against Zac Goldsmith re-joining the Tories is a complete NoNo in my view. He's let the party down very badly and deserves a good spanking.
No-one had a clue what post EU Britain looks like.
I personally don't think migration controls will work. Nor do I necessarily think they're desirable. But I live a comfortable lifestyle and my job is not under threat from it.
If you are unemployed, and the only job you can get is depressed to minimum wage (which employers often ignore, incidentally) because they can hire Poles, Bulgarians, Romanians etc for that money and make bigger profits, then wouldn't you be in favour of making it at the very least more difficult and expensive to hire those people so wages would go up?
And if your city has been trashed by generations of remote politicians making decisions that will advance their careers and sod the cost, wouldn't you genuinely believe regardless of the facts that this was happening because they don't care and not because actually there are in the real world limits to what they can do?
And above all, if the EU is blamed for all of this as a convenient scapegoat, and elects a bunch of people who in this country would be in prison to run themselves - wouldn't you link the two and vote against it?
I didn't appreciate the depth of feeling in the country over the issue - that's a bad miss on my part given I worked in schools in these areas for a long time and knew what was being said. But you don't even want to hear in the first place and shout insults at anyone who challenges your version of events.
And then you wonder why half the country ignored you.
If we leave properly (and there's a pretty broad range of how we can do that, I was quite relaxed about Davis' single market comments) then things will gradually improve. If we don't, and staying in the customs union would be one such example, they'll only get more bitter.
I am amazed at how well my bet is staying alive
They refused to do so, and if we are ever to get this sorted we do have to work on helping them out and bringing them back into the mainstream. That won't be easy, but it's terrifying to think of what could happen if we don't at least try.
If the Conservatives tell me I *have to* vote one way, my visceral response will be to tell them to sod off. I'm not being bullied into voting for a party, particularly if it's one that has us staying in the customs union. I've said all along that's practically the only area where I have a firm view on what should happen, and staying in is not it.
What's important now is what to do next. I suggested that hard Brexit would not address the sorry plight of the people you seem to be concerned about.
Do you agree?
Genuine question. People are trying to paint the Trump win as the poor rebellion against the Dems but Clinton easily won the poorest sections of society. It was the block from 50,000 to 100,000 that trump won bigely with. 100,000 a year is not poor by any stretch of the imagination
Pandering to a tantrum is never a good response. I shall just stand aside and watch.
What if it isn't? What if making the nation poorer has an adverse effect? What do we do then?
Dr. Foxinsox, I agree. The challenges posed by globalisation will not be solved (excepting perhaps at the edges) by leaving the EU. The challenges of having foreign bureaucrats dictate laws may be, although given how floppy the Government stance appears to be I'm beginning to suspect you'll be rather happier with the deal than I will be.
The major review by the Government’s integration tsar Dame Louise Casey has found that thousands of Muslims live in enclaves with their own housing estates, schools and television channels.
Some rarely, if ever, leave their neighbourhoods, and believe that Britain is a Muslim country in which up to three-quarters of the population follow Islam, according to sources who have seen the report.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3998166/Isolated-British-Muslims-cut-rest-society-UK-75-cent-Islamic-shock-report-reveals.html#ixzz4RrIImmTu
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/news/a50874/clay-county-kentucky-healthcare-trump/
If people walk into a polling station and say "fu*k your status quo", the why shouldn't I respond with two fingers when they come with their begging bowl?
I will spell it out for you. I do not think Brexit will help the poor - I agree with the good @doctorfoxinsoxuk that the jobs are not coming back - but I am taking the trouble to understand why it's happened to try and sort the mess out. You don't care about that, so unfortunately you are doomed to wander through life in a bubble of your own confusion at why the world seems all wrong to you. I feel sorry for you because all bubbles ultimately burst.
I voted LibDem in 2015 in a hyper-marginal that the LibDems lost.
When their candidate comes round in 2017 or 2020, I'll have my two fingers ready.
What pray is your solution? I'm all ears.
Alas, I am getting disillusioned by the tone this morning which seems to have become thoroughly unpleasant, and I worry I am getting dragged down myself. I shall head off to play some nice advent hymns instead.
Have a good morning everyone.
As it happens, I think "the people got it wrong" - but their right to get it wrong is orders of magnitude more important than EU membership.
I can survive it quite well, and in a globalised yet atomised world, turn my back on it to a large extent.