Aargh, just noticed 'Farage filly'. Hello breakfast, nice to see you again.
She was on the UKIP NEC until resigning from it in August over the Woolfe affair, though she wanted him to be able to stand, so probably moved on a little since her days in the NF.
Am I right in thinking that past membership of the NF disqualifies someone from becoming a UKIP candidate, or is that only the BNP?
The bit the story skips over is her previous roles in the Tory party, from whence she came to UKiP
Because membership of the EU Customs Union prevents us making our own trade deals with other countries because of the Common External Tariff. It is indeed the worst of both worlds.
I know this gets boring for everyone else. For me too. But one last pass round for luck, because it is important stuff. Other countries will not stop making preferential trade agreements with us because of hypothetical restrictions imposed by us being in a supposedly unfavourable customs union with the EU. They will not be doing preferential trade agreements with us because they take forever, consume to much political capital and no-one wants to do them anymore. The choice isn't between outside the EU trading system and a bunch of much more valuable FTAs with third countries versus relying on the EU trading system. It's between outside the EU trading system with no FTAs, operating on an MFN basis with everyone, with extra trade barriers, versus relying on the EU trading system. Dealing with the world as it is rather than as we would like it to be should change the discussion IMO.
It does get boring because you miss the very basic point. It is not that being in the customs union means other countries won't want to make preferential trade agreements with us. It is that membership of the customs union makes it illegal for us to conduct trade agreements with them because it would breach the common external tariff. It is one of the reasons the EFTA countries stayed out of the customs union.
Aargh, just noticed 'Farage filly'. Hello breakfast, nice to see you again.
She was on the UKIP NEC until resigning from it in August over the Woolfe affair, though she wanted him to be able to stand, so probably moved on a little since her days in the NF.
Am I right in thinking that past membership of the NF disqualifies someone from becoming a UKIP candidate, or is that only the BNP?
Unless they have changed the rule book it always included bans on former members of both BNP and NF.
Because membership of the EU Customs Union prevents us making our own trade deals with other countries because of the Common External Tariff. It is indeed the worst of both worlds.
I know this gets boring for everyone else. For me too. But one last pass round for luck, because it is important stuff. Other countries will not stop making preferential trade agreements with us because of hypothetical restrictions imposed by us being in a supposedly unfavourable customs union with the EU. They will not be doing preferential trade agreements with us because they take forever, consume to much political capital and no-one wants to do them anymore. The choice isn't between outside the EU trading system and a bunch of much more valuable FTAs with third countries versus relying on the EU trading system. It's between outside the EU trading system with no FTAs, operating on an MFN basis with everyone, with extra trade barriers, versus relying on the EU trading system. Dealing with the world as it is rather than as we would like it to be should change the discussion IMO.
It does get boring because you miss the very basic point. It is not that being in the customs union means other countries won't want to make preferential trade agreements with us. It is that membership of the customs union makes it illegal for us to conduct trade agreements with them because it would breach the common external tariff. It is one of the reasons the EFTA countries stayed out of the customs union.
Point of order that is not particularly relevent to the debate... even the 'customs union' with the EU has more that one meaning. Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, but is not in the EU customs union. It therefore has FTA with countries that the EU does not, despite being in a customs union with it.
David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.
Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.
Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
There is obviously almost no chance* that the LibDems will Sleaford. But I can't blame them for putting in a little bit of effort. The Labour Party is currently imploding, and increasing their vote share into the double digits would allow them to boast of continuing progress.
I have a theory that the entire LibDem strategy for the next three and a half years is based around Sunil's chart of their by-election performances**. Once they've got that sorted, they'll move onto something else.
* I guess it is theoretically possible that the LibDems get the entire Remain vote in Sleaford, while the Out vote is split evenly between UKIP and the Conservatives. But I wouldn't want to put any money on it.
** Sunil seems to have stopped putting up his LibDem by-election performance chart. [Innocent Face].
I'm getting a little bored of Brexit debates in a vacuum which are no more than an interminable continuation of the referendum campaign. Whatever arrangements we come to with the EU now will not be the same as the arrangements we will have in 10 years time. In some areas we will come together again and in others we drift apart. And in another 10 years there will be further changes.
Will we be better off or worse off through these changes? Who can say? One thing that is pretty much for certain is that we will never definitively know. What we will know is that the government of the day (which will no doubt be useless) will be more accountable to those that elect it, that a broader range of policy will be within its area of responsibility and that only defeatists and pessimists could possibly believe that to be a bad thing.
Hear hear. Perfectly put. This comment should be pinned to the top of every Brexit PB debate.
That is a bit unfair. Most of us do not have the luxury of being able to stage the debate with ourselves, and need someone with a different view to bounce off.
Aargh, just noticed 'Farage filly'. Hello breakfast, nice to see you again.
She was on the UKIP NEC until resigning from it in August over the Woolfe affair, though she wanted him to be able to stand, so probably moved on a little since her days in the NF.
Am I right in thinking that past membership of the NF disqualifies someone from becoming a UKIP candidate, or is that only the BNP?
The bit the story skips over is her previous roles in the Tory party, from whence she came to UKiP
She is pretty well known in Lincs as a Councillor, and both Tory and UKIP PPC in Grimsby. Well known or notorious anyway.
The 1/4 for second place with PP is very poor value. Lab for 2nd at 15/2 is v good value. He is a local WWC Trade Unionist bin lorry driver, now pro-Brexit.
Aargh, just noticed 'Farage filly'. Hello breakfast, nice to see you again.
She was on the UKIP NEC until resigning from it in August over the Woolfe affair, though she wanted him to be able to stand, so probably moved on a little since her days in the NF.
Am I right in thinking that past membership of the NF disqualifies someone from becoming a UKIP candidate, or is that only the BNP?
The bit the story skips over is her previous roles in the Tory party, from whence she came to UKiP
She is pretty well known in Lincs as a Councillor, and both Tory and UKIP PPC in Grimsby. Well known or notorious anyway.
The 1/4 for second place with PP is very poor value. Lab for 2nd at 15/2 is v good value. He is a local WWC Trade Unionist bin lorry driver, now pro-Brexit.
Labour's odds against winning are twice the LibDems, which seems off the money, I would have thought both equally unlikely.
Aargh, just noticed 'Farage filly'. Hello breakfast, nice to see you again.
She was on the UKIP NEC until resigning from it in August over the Woolfe affair, though she wanted him to be able to stand, so probably moved on a little since her days in the NF.
Am I right in thinking that past membership of the NF disqualifies someone from becoming a UKIP candidate, or is that only the BNP?
Unless they have changed the rule book it always included bans on former members of both BNP and NF.
Because membership of the EU Customs Union prevents us making our own trade deals with other countries because of the Common External Tariff. It is indeed the worst of both worlds.
I know this gets boring for everyone else. For me too. But one last pass round for luck, because it is important stuff. Other countries will not stop making preferential trade agreements with us because of hypothetical restrictions imposed by us being in a supposedly unfavourable customs union with the EU. They will not be doing preferential trade agreements with us because they take forever, consume to much political capital and no-one wants to do them anymore. The choice isn't between outside the EU trading system and a bunch of much more valuable FTAs with third countries versus relying on the EU trading system. It's between outside the EU trading system with no FTAs, operating on an MFN basis with everyone, with extra trade barriers, versus relying on the EU trading system. Dealing with the world as it is rather than as we would like it to be should change the discussion IMO.
It does get boring because you miss the very basic point. It is not that being in the customs union means other countries won't want to make preferential trade agreements with us. It is that membership of the customs union makes it illegal for us to conduct trade agreements with them because it would breach the common external tariff. It is one of the reasons the EFTA countries stayed out of the customs union.
Point of order that is not particularly relevent to the debate... even the 'customs union' with the EU has more that one meaning. Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, but is not in the EU customs union. It therefore has FTA with countries that the EU does not, despite being in a customs union with it.
Correct. I was speaking specifically about the EU Customs Union rather than that with Turkey. They are not the same thing and do not carry the same limitations.
David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.
Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
The Constituency was 38% Remain, and LDs were in second place in 2010. Obviously not getting the attention of Richmond, but the same goes for other parties. Have any party bigwigs been for any party? Farron is there this weekend I think.
The difference between PhD and undergraduate science is significant.
As an undergraduate you are only set problems that have been solved.
This....It was the first thing I was told in my induction of PhD #1.
I did my first ever experiments for (what was to become) my PhD project during my final year summer project as an undergrad.
It is also incorrect to say that undergraduate degrees do not contain original research work. 20% of the Geology degree I did was a mapping project, part of which was then used in a paper for Nature.
I don't know why Boris Johnson bothers to do these Sunday "political" slots. He is totally unsuited to today's dumb-downed media. He is best when he is allowed to formulate his comments but because he is constantly interrupted and the whole thing just becomes a dog's breakfast.
If Marr was bad enough, then Peston was totally out of order. They seemed more intent of making fun of him and then the cake at the end was embarrassing. Peston screeching questions at him, was not a good look. I shall just go back to ignoring all these programmes, even Andrew Neil, who seems to be struggling to get any "heavyweight" politician's on.
Aargh, just noticed 'Farage filly'. Hello breakfast, nice to see you again.
She was on the UKIP NEC until resigning from it in August over the Woolfe affair, though she wanted him to be able to stand, so probably moved on a little since her days in the NF.
Am I right in thinking that past membership of the NF disqualifies someone from becoming a UKIP candidate, or is that only the BNP?
The bit the story skips over is her previous roles in the Tory party, from whence she came to UKiP
She is pretty well known in Lincs as a Councillor, and both Tory and UKIP PPC in Grimsby. Well known or notorious anyway.
The 1/4 for second place with PP is very poor value. Lab for 2nd at 15/2 is v good value. He is a local WWC Trade Unionist bin lorry driver, now pro-Brexit.
Labour's odds against winning are twice the LibDems, which seems off the money, I would have thought both equally unlikely.
These are the odds for second place. Tories first place obviously.
When Facebook and Twitter stick their "automated" (insert poorly paid set of interns) censoring systems in place, seems like some people might need to be careful!
David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.
Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
The Constituency was 38% Remain, and LDs were in second place in 2010. Obviously not getting the attention of Richmond, but the same goes for other parties. Have any party bigwigs been for any party? Farron is there this weekend I think.
Living in the constituency I can certainly say the whole event seems very low key indeed.
Aargh, just noticed 'Farage filly'. Hello breakfast, nice to see you again.
She was on the UKIP NEC until resigning from it in August over the Woolfe affair, though she wanted him to be able to stand, so probably moved on a little since her days in the NF.
Am I right in thinking that past membership of the NF disqualifies someone from becoming a UKIP candidate, or is that only the BNP?
The bit the story skips over is her previous roles in the Tory party, from whence she came to UKiP
She is pretty well known in Lincs as a Councillor, and both Tory and UKIP PPC in Grimsby. Well known or notorious anyway.
The 1/4 for second place with PP is very poor value. Lab for 2nd at 15/2 is v good value. He is a local WWC Trade Unionist bin lorry driver, now pro-Brexit.
Labour's odds against winning are twice the LibDems, which seems off the money, I would have thought both equally unlikely.
These are the odds for second place. Tories first place obviously.
Sorry I should have made clear I was looking at the win odds on Betfair, not picking up the figures in the OP directly
I don't know why Boris Johnson bothers to do these Sunday "political" slots. He is totally unsuited to today's dumb-downed media. He is best when he is allowed to formulate his comments but because he is constantly interrupted and the whole thing just becomes a dog's breakfast.
If Marr was bad enough, then Peston was totally out of order. They seemed more intent of making fun of him and then the cake at the end was embarrassing. Peston screeching questions at him, was not a good look. I shall just go back to ignoring all these programmes, even Andrew Neil, who seems to be struggling to get any "heavyweight" politician's on.
The demise of the long form interview is both sad and bad. Instead it is all about 10 mins where the interviewer is looking for a "gotcha" moment and the politician unwilling to say much...what results is often the interviewer talking more than the guest and the viewer none the wiser.
The best way to hold politicians to account is the long form interview and letting them dig their own graves.
Aargh, just noticed 'Farage filly'. Hello breakfast, nice to see you again.
She was on the UKIP NEC until resigning from it in August over the Woolfe affair, though she wanted him to be able to stand, so probably moved on a little since her days in the NF.
Am I right in thinking that past membership of the NF disqualifies someone from becoming a UKIP candidate, or is that only the BNP?
Unless they have changed the rule book it always included bans on former members of both BNP and NF.
Will she have to withdraw ;-) ?
No idea. I assume it is too late to change things now but it would be fun to see her immediately expelled from the party in the unlikely event she won.
David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.
Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
The Constituency was 38% Remain, and LDs were in second place in 2010. Obviously not getting the attention of Richmond, but the same goes for other parties. Have any party bigwigs been for any party? Farron is there this weekend I think.
Yes, 62% Leave and UKIP on 15.7%, about 1.5% away from 2nd place. Of course Tories have been above or practically on 50% since 2001. Anything other than a Tory victory looks extremely unlikely. The interest will come in seeing if UKIP can squeeze the LDs and Labour, if Labour can maintain 2nd place or if the LDs can progress. This is a good prospect for UKIP, they sat out Richmond and should have used that time to concentrate on Sleaford, it's totally understandable that the LibDems ignored it until the final week.
Aargh, just noticed 'Farage filly'. Hello breakfast, nice to see you again.
She was on the UKIP NEC until resigning from it in August over the Woolfe affair, though she wanted him to be able to stand, so probably moved on a little since her days in the NF.
Am I right in thinking that past membership of the NF disqualifies someone from becoming a UKIP candidate, or is that only the BNP?
Unless they have changed the rule book it always included bans on former members of both BNP and NF.
Will she have to withdraw ;-) ?
No idea. I assume it is too late to change things now but it would be fun to see her immediately expelled from the party in the unlikely event she won.
When Facebook and Twitter stick their "automated" (insert poorly paid set of interns) censoring systems in place, seems like some people might need to be careful!
It's a very ill-judged monster that's come back to bite the MSM on the arse. I've seen all manner of debunked stories raising their heads to demonstrate the point. It's dragged the whole sector down and played straight into Trump's hands.
Doh, like that hasn't happened two dozen times already. I honestly think now that the MSM are in such a groupthink/circle the wagons mode that they can't see their own self-harm is totally counter-productive.
David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.
Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
I see the rumour mill is suggesting Paul Nuttall may go for Andy Burnham's Leigh seat, which has been a Labour seat for over 90 years. They would vote for a Labour candidate even if that candidate had been dead a week. Having lived there, it was a complete waste of time even bothering to vote for anyone else.
Times are a changing though and it's quite possible UKIP could make a breakthrough but I doubt it.
I predict that Ed Balls will go for this ultra safe seat.
David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.
Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
The Constituency was 38% Remain, and LDs were in second place in 2010. Obviously not getting the attention of Richmond, but the same goes for other parties. Have any party bigwigs been for any party? Farron is there this weekend I think.
Yes, 62% Leave and UKIP on 15.7%, about 1.5% away from 2nd place. Of course Tories have been above or practically on 50% since 2001. Anything other than a Tory victory looks extremely unlikely. The interest will come in seeing if UKIP can squeeze the LDs and Labour, if Labour can maintain 2nd place or if the LDs can progress. This is a good prospect for UKIP, they sat out Richmond and should have used that time to concentrate on Sleaford, it's totally understandable that the LibDems ignored it until the final week.
Hence the Tories feeding the dirt they already have on her to the press for the final weekend.
David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.
Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
The Constituency was 38% Remain, and LDs were in second place in 2010. Obviously not getting the attention of Richmond, but the same goes for other parties. Have any party bigwigs been for any party? Farron is there this weekend I think.
Living in the constituency I can certainly say the whole event seems very low key indeed.
Good for the LDs. They should play their Remain card. Odd that it may seem. Even Corbyn's candidate is a Leavers , I am told.
Comments
UKIP claiming they can win, so expect LibDem vote to be squeezed and deposit lost?
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/739585/ukip-byelection-sleaford-north-hykeham-victoria-ayling-richmond-park-sarah-olney
The 1/4 for second place with PP is very poor value. Lab for 2nd at 15/2 is v good value. He is a local WWC Trade Unionist bin lorry driver, now pro-Brexit.
If Marr was bad enough, then Peston was totally out of order. They seemed more intent of making fun of him and then the cake at the end was embarrassing. Peston screeching questions at him, was not a good look. I shall just go back to ignoring all these programmes, even Andrew Neil, who seems to be struggling to get any "heavyweight" politician's on.
http://order-order.com/2016/12/03/ambassadors-say-sky-news-boris-story-untrue/
When Facebook and Twitter stick their "automated" (insert poorly paid set of interns) censoring systems in place, seems like some people might need to be careful!
The best way to hold politicians to account is the long form interview and letting them dig their own graves.
Screw the Leavers !
Anything other than a Tory victory looks extremely unlikely. The interest will come in seeing if UKIP can squeeze the LDs and Labour, if Labour can maintain 2nd place or if the LDs can progress.
This is a good prospect for UKIP, they sat out Richmond and should have used that time to concentrate on Sleaford, it's totally understandable that the LibDems ignored it until the final week.
Seventeen minutes late, not on leadership ballot.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-leadership-hopeful-steven-woolfe-misses-application-deadline-by-17-minutes-a7165311.html
Former member of NF, expelled.
Surely?
Doh, like that hasn't happened two dozen times already. I honestly think now that the MSM are in such a groupthink/circle the wagons mode that they can't see their own self-harm is totally counter-productive.
Times are a changing though and it's quite possible UKIP could make a breakthrough but I doubt it.
I predict that Ed Balls will go for this ultra safe seat.
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