politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Defection watch. Betting on Jacob Rees-Mogg to defect to UKIP
Comments
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I think the interesting comparison between Austria and France is under the circumstances where Le Pen faced Melenchon or a Green in the second round.Dromedary said:Italy, NO, 1.37; Austria, Hofer, 1.36: little change from yesterday.
In France, Le Pen is at 4.2. Her price is bound to come in slightly after the Italian NO result and a fortiori if Hofer wins in Austria. That's even if Grillo sticks two fingers up at his voters and says he doesn't want a referendum on the euro any more and Hofer says he's sure he can work things out so that no Oexit referendum will be needed - which I don't think they're likely to do.
More seriously, if you want to buy Le Pen at 4.25, I'll sell to you all day.0 -
Abbott has just started speaking, and is already being evasive with Brillo.0
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Indeed.DavidL said:I'm getting a little bored of Brexit debates in a vacuum which are no more than an interminable continuation of the referendum campaign. Whatever arrangements we come to with the EU now will not be the same as the arrangements we will have in 10 years time. In some areas we will come together again and in others we drift apart. And in another 10 years there will be further changes.
Will we be better off or worse off through these changes? Who can say? One thing that is pretty much for certain is that we will never definitively know. What we will know is that the government of the day (which will no doubt be useless) will be more accountable to those that elect it, that a broader range of policy will be within its area of responsibility and that only defeatists and pessimists could possibly believe that to be a bad thing.
More areas of policy under British control and the façade removed from British society will be good things.
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van der Bellen now out to 3.2
Does anyone have the up to date news from Austria ?
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This article includes the news that Nuttall will stand in Leigh when flip-flop stands down.TheScreamingEagles said:ICYMI. (My tweet was also retweeted by one Raheem Kassam)
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/8051943643938201600 -
I've already invested as much as I want to at 4.2; planning to get out tonight or tomorrow.rcs1000 said:
I think the interesting comparison between Austria and France is under the circumstances where Le Pen faced Melenchon or a Green in the second round.Dromedary said:Italy, NO, 1.37; Austria, Hofer, 1.36: little change from yesterday.
In France, Le Pen is at 4.2. Her price is bound to come in slightly after the Italian NO result and a fortiori if Hofer wins in Austria. That's even if Grillo sticks two fingers up at his voters and says he doesn't want a referendum on the euro any more and Hofer says he's sure he can work things out so that no Oexit referendum will be needed - which I don't think they're likely to do.
More seriously, if you want to buy Le Pen at 4.25, I'll sell to you all day.0 -
Hodges:
"Up until now I’d been sceptical about talk of a new Centre-Left party. But this morning I don’t see any alternative."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3998140/DAN-HODGES-Labour-s-sunk-just-hasn-t-realised-yet.html#ixzz4RrsGwnVV
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook0 -
There seems to be no evidence that Paul Nuttall has ever made these claims. Other people have made the claims about him.TheScreamingEagles said:ICYMI. (My tweet was also retweeted by one Raheem Kassam)
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/805194364393820160
Paul Nuttall says he is registered to do a Ph.D at Hope University and he hopes to complete it one day; and that he played for Tranmere Rovers juniors not seniors.0 -
Will they pay out if gets a column at the Independent?Sunil_Prasannan said:Jeremy Corbyn to "independent"?
Seriously?0 -
If Le Pen did win how would she form a government ?rcs1000 said:
I think the interesting comparison between Austria and France is under the circumstances where Le Pen faced Melenchon or a Green in the second round.Dromedary said:Italy, NO, 1.37; Austria, Hofer, 1.36: little change from yesterday.
In France, Le Pen is at 4.2. Her price is bound to come in slightly after the Italian NO result and a fortiori if Hofer wins in Austria. That's even if Grillo sticks two fingers up at his voters and says he doesn't want a referendum on the euro any more and Hofer says he's sure he can work things out so that no Oexit referendum will be needed - which I don't think they're likely to do.
More seriously, if you want to buy Le Pen at 4.25, I'll sell to you all day.
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3 really isn't an issue in the UK. We have a big issue with debt to individuals (a massive one, in fact) but the banking sector in the UK plays very little role in funding British business*.another_richard said:
I can think of five issues re productivity stagnation:David_Evershed said:Unless we ask the right question we are unlikely to hit upon the right solution.
The question should be how to improve productivity in the UK.
If we have excellent productivity, work and wealth will prosper here regardless of the trade arrangements or political arrangements.
1) The shift in the proportions of the economy from a sector with high productivity growth (manufacturing) to one with lower productivity growth (services, especially wealth consuming services).
2) A trillion pounds of government borrowing and subsidising of the economy - whenever the government does that it provides little incentive for the subsidised sectors to increase productivity eg heavy industry in the 1970s and the public sector in the 2000s
3) Ultra low interest rates allowing 'zombie companies' to survive and thus not freeing up capital, workers, property for more dynamic businesses.
4) Immigration of low cost low skilled immigration providing an alternative to capital investment and training of existing workforces
5) Growing inequality - if the gains of higher productivity are taken by the 1% rather than shared equitably the 99% have less incentive to improve their productivity
* If you look at a German bank, well over half their outstanding loans will be to companies. If you look at a British one, it'll be less than a quarter.0 -
Abbott now rubbishing Jezza's position on migration!0
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With great difficulty. The FN is unlikely to have any representation in the Senate at all.another_richard said:
If Le Pen did win how would she form a government ?rcs1000 said:
I think the interesting comparison between Austria and France is under the circumstances where Le Pen faced Melenchon or a Green in the second round.Dromedary said:Italy, NO, 1.37; Austria, Hofer, 1.36: little change from yesterday.
In France, Le Pen is at 4.2. Her price is bound to come in slightly after the Italian NO result and a fortiori if Hofer wins in Austria. That's even if Grillo sticks two fingers up at his voters and says he doesn't want a referendum on the euro any more and Hofer says he's sure he can work things out so that no Oexit referendum will be needed - which I don't think they're likely to do.
More seriously, if you want to buy Le Pen at 4.25, I'll sell to you all day.
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And then we can get on with the much more important issues you raised this morning which will have a much greater impact on the standard and quality of living of the average Brit than membership or non membership of the EU would ever have.another_richard said:
Indeed.DavidL said:I'm getting a little bored of Brexit debates in a vacuum which are no more than an interminable continuation of the referendum campaign. Whatever arrangements we come to with the EU now will not be the same as the arrangements we will have in 10 years time. In some areas we will come together again and in others we drift apart. And in another 10 years there will be further changes.
Will we be better off or worse off through these changes? Who can say? One thing that is pretty much for certain is that we will never definitively know. What we will know is that the government of the day (which will no doubt be useless) will be more accountable to those that elect it, that a broader range of policy will be within its area of responsibility and that only defeatists and pessimists could possibly believe that to be a bad thing.
More areas of policy under British control and the façade removed from British society will be good things.0 -
Given that your preferred arrangement of being in EFTA/EEA would turn us into a political parasite of the EU that seems an odd position.Richard_Tyndall said:
No I was specifically referring to the EU. And as long as we remain part of the EU we are indeed part of that dwindling backwater. By leaving we stand a chance of moving into the main river once again. Something that cannot and will not happen as long as we are constrained by EU membership.williamglenn said:
Yesterday Richard was calling Europe a 'rapidly dwindling backwater' in world trade terms, apparently without the self-awareness to realise that he's talking about us.FF43 said:
Yeah but they were working on their deals over decades, as has the EU, in a much more benign trade negotiation environment than now. We won't replicate their system of preferential trade on day one, or even year ten. These deals take years and years and the world has more or less stopped doing them. The moment we step outside the EU, and to a certain extent the customs union, we will be hit by new trade barriers that won't be lifted within the planning horizon. That's why it's sensible to stay in the customs union unless you have an ideological objection to it. I don't see why people would have an ideological objection of a kind they might have with EU membership.Richard_Tyndall said:
Actually no. EFTA members are outside the Customs Union but still have free trade with the EU. The important point being that outside the Customs Union they are also able top complete their own trade deals as they see fit. Hence the reason they have more free trade deals with other countries than the EU does.FF43 said:
Reality has to kick in at a certain point. And outside the EU we will be trading on MFN basis and not on preferential trade basis, unless we can borrow some FTAs from the EU, the EFTA or whatever. These are likely to require the permission of the countersigning party, who are by no means guaranteed to give it. The world has essentially stopped doing FTAs. There is very little upside to being outside the customs union in practice. Staying inside removes some important trade barriers with the EU, the block that makes up half our trade.Paristonda said:cries easy.
Do you think that the whole of Europe would have a chance of 'moving into the main river' if the EU disappeared, or is this happy state something reserved only for the hangers-on who are part of the single market but disdain the EU without which it wouldn't exist?0 -
If Corbyn expelled from the Labour Party when the revolution comes.Sunil_Prasannan said:Jeremy Corbyn to "independent"?
Seriously?
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Abbott: We have to have freedom of movement because we are close to France.
Canada has only dodged it because they are too far away.
FFS.0 -
Your whole reply is based on a fundamental lack of knowledge of what EFTA membership actually means and its relationship with the EU. Not surprising as you do seem to indulge in a state of wilful ignorance when it comes to the EU.williamglenn said:
Given that your preferred arrangement of being in EFTA/EEA would turn us into a political parasite of the EU that seems an odd position.
Do you think that the whole of Europe would have a chance of 'moving into the main river' if the EU disappeared, or is this happy state something reserved only for the hangers-on who are part of the single market but disdain the EU without which it wouldn't exist?0 -
David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.0
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As I have said these offers are ridiculous but it is hard to criticise a company that produces adverts like the current turnaround steward one. I can't put the link up on this phone but it is seriously good and well worth a google if you haven't seen it.0
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It beats the wilful ignorance of some on here.IanB2 said:
If only wishful thinking mixed with a few analogies that don't really work were sufficient...Richard_Tyndall said:
No I was specifically referring to the EU. And as long as we remain part of the EU we are indeed part of that dwindling backwater. By leaving we stand a chance of moving into the main river once again. Something that cannot and will not happen as long as we are constrained by EU membership.williamglenn said:
Yesterday Richard was calling Europe a 'rapidly dwindling backwater' in world trade terms, apparently without the self-awareness to realise that he's talking about us.FF43 said:
Yeah but they were working on their deals over decades, as has the EU, in a much more benign trade negotiation environment than now. We won't replicate their system of preferential trade on day one, or even year ten. These deals take years and years and the world has more or less stopped doing them. The moment we step outside the EU, and to a certain extent the customs union, we will be hit by new trade barriers that won't be lifted within the planning horizon. That's why it's sensible to stay in the customs union unless you have an ideological objection to it. I don't see why people would have an ideological objection of a kind they might have with EU membership.Richard_Tyndall said:
Actually no. EFTA members are outside the Customs Union but still have free trade with the EU. The important point being that outside the Customs Union they are also able top complete their own trade deals as they see fit. Hence the reason they have more free trade deals with other countries than the EU does.FF43 said:
Reality has to kick in at a certain point. And outside the EU we will be trading on MFN basis and not on preferential trade basis, unless we can borrow some FTAs from the EU, the EFTA or whatever. These are likely to require the permission of the countersigning party, who are by no means guaranteed to give it. The world has essentially stopped doing FTAs. There is very little upside to being outside the customs union in practice. Staying inside removes some important trade barriers with the EU, the block that makes up half our trade.Paristonda said:cries easy.
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Some are.foxinsoxuk said:
It is rare for me to agree with you, but I do.another_richard said:
And do you think Cameron and Osborne would have been interested in finding solutions to those problems if Remain had won ?Jonathan said:
You can spend your life arguing about the origins, the past and who was most to blame. It doesn't matter one iota.another_richard said:
You can add the current account deficit to your list.Jonathan said:Meanwhile, away from Brexit, the UK has big problems that it should really be looking at.
The budget deficit
Accrued debt that can never be paid off
Funding social care for the elderly during a demographic time bomb
The impact of automation on white collar workers.
Failing transport and energy infrastructure.
Inequality and social cohesion.
The internal UK constitutional crisis (Scotland)
Defence services embarrassingly below critical mass (Carriers without planes)
to name a few...
None of which Brexit solves, but arguably makes harder to solve and at the very least distract the best minds.
Pretty much all of which can be traced back to Brown and Blair.
Although Cameron and Osborne did little to rectify things.
Perhaps having an economy and society so dependent upon wealth consumption has its drawbacks.
What matters is the solution and how we are going to find it given our politics are going to spend the next 3-5 years arguing about Brexit.
Right now all the issues are dirty secrets shoved under the living room rug for later.
It would be pathetic if it wasn't so serious.
Brexit allows the curtain to fall, the naked emperor to be exposed, the hard truth to be revealed.
Until that happens nothing will be done.
The cold winds of Hard Brexit will be pretty uncomfortable for a lot of the country, but it will paradoxically substantially be Remainers who will benefit. They are the people mobile enough to adapt to the changes, and with the skills that are in demand in the world.
Some think they are but aren't.
Some aren't.
Most of the young Remainers are going to have a very hard time whereas most of the old Leavers will continue to do nicely.
The problem most of the mobile, adaptable, skilful Remainers have is the same as for the potters and steelworkers.
Namely that they'll be competing against people as intelligent and educated as themselves but who are willing to work harder, for less money and under fewer restrictions.0 -
Adding to the merriment of the nation.SandyRentool said:Abbott: We have to have freedom of movement because we are close to France.
Canada has only dodged it because they are too far away.
FFS.0 -
Delete your account.TheScreamingEagles said:ICYMI. (My tweet was also retweeted by one Raheem Kassam)
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/805194364393820160
Does this mean that wee Raheem isn't too keen on his new leader?
Discord amongst the Kippers, who'd have thunk it.0 -
If I heard him right on Marr, he suggested that someone else had done a LinkedIn page, but he had no idea who it was.David_Evershed said:
There seems to be no evidence that Paul Nuttall has ever made these claims. Other people have made the claims about him.TheScreamingEagles said:ICYMI. (My tweet was also retweeted by one Raheem Kassam)
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/805194364393820160
Paul Nuttall says he is registered to do a Ph.D at Hope University and he hopes to complete it one day; and that he played for Tranmere Rovers juniors not seniors.
Rather odd - LinkedIn isn't really the sort of site where such things are common, and to do so not as a spoof but as a very close representation of his CV, tweaking one almost-true factual detail to show he'd finished rather than merely started the PhD, then making an issue of it in the press the day after his election, would indicate a certain subtlety of smear with which UKIP isn't normally associated?0 -
Does that include free movement for blonde, blue-eyed Finnish nurses ?SandyRentool said:Abbott: We have to have freedom of movement because we are close to France.
Canada has only dodged it because they are too far away.
FFS.
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Not watching, but sounds like another high class performance.SandyRentool said:Abbott: We have to have freedom of movement because we are close to France.
Canada has only dodged it because they are too far away.
FFS.
Just another day in the self-destruction of the Labour party as a national opposition.0 -
Only if they are female heterosexuals.another_richard said:
Does that include free movement for blonde, blue-eyed Finnish nurses ?SandyRentool said:Abbott: We have to have freedom of movement because we are close to France.
Canada has only dodged it because they are too far away.
FFS.0 -
F1: just watching the odds. Wehrlein's lengthened to 4 (from 3) and Bottas shortened from 6 (to 4) to be Hamilton's next team mate.
As a saver, having backed Wehrlein at 3 for the gig, I backed, with a tiny sum, Bottas each way (top 3) to win the 2017 title. Of course, he could get the seat then finish 4th...
The odds on Hamilton, Ricciardo and Verstappen for the title have all shortened, but were pretty tight anyway. Bottas has shortened from 26 to 21.
Alonso's halved from 26 to 13, and Vandoorne has lengthened from 51 to 67.
Of those, Bottas and Vandoorne look most appealing to me in value terms. The Red Bull 2.5 for the Constructors' may make more sense than backing the drivers. Also, McLaren's 17 for the Constructors'. Worth considering, but I'd prefer Vandoorne each way for the Drivers' title. If the McLaren is fast enough for the Constructors' title, there's got to be a good chance of Vandoorne finishing top 3.
Edited extra bit: that said, the Red Bull bet odds are pretty short for a pre-test bet with a year to run.0 -
Oddly enough our old friend Hunchman thought that was the best of my suggestions.rcs1000 said:
3 really isn't an issue in the UK. We have a big issue with debt to individuals (a massive one, in fact) but the banking sector in the UK plays very little role in funding British business*.another_richard said:
I can think of five issues re productivity stagnation:David_Evershed said:Unless we ask the right question we are unlikely to hit upon the right solution.
The question should be how to improve productivity in the UK.
If we have excellent productivity, work and wealth will prosper here regardless of the trade arrangements or political arrangements.
1) The shift in the proportions of the economy from a sector with high productivity growth (manufacturing) to one with lower productivity growth (services, especially wealth consuming services).
2) A trillion pounds of government borrowing and subsidising of the economy - whenever the government does that it provides little incentive for the subsidised sectors to increase productivity eg heavy industry in the 1970s and the public sector in the 2000s
3) Ultra low interest rates allowing 'zombie companies' to survive and thus not freeing up capital, workers, property for more dynamic businesses.
4) Immigration of low cost low skilled immigration providing an alternative to capital investment and training of existing workforces
5) Growing inequality - if the gains of higher productivity are taken by the 1% rather than shared equitably the 99% have less incentive to improve their productivity
* If you look at a German bank, well over half their outstanding loans will be to companies. If you look at a British one, it'll be less than a quarter.
I can't help thinking that there would have been some big, prime sites on High Streets in major towns if BHS had been shut down when it stopped being profitable rather than 'profitable'.
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That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)0 -
Shakespeare had the answer to this guff:DavidL said:
Adding to the merriment of the nation.SandyRentool said:Abbott: We have to have freedom of movement because we are close to France.
Canada has only dodged it because they are too far away.
FFS.
This precious stone set in the silver sea,
Which serves it in the office of a wall
Or as a moat defensive to a house,
Against the envy of less happier lands.
Richard II0 -
So Tony Blair was right to try and get 50+% of people through HE - all part of his masterplan to get us into the Euro :-)Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)0 -
theakes said:
David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.
Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
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There is a massive flaw in this stat that is widely banded about, when it is some how equated to how intelligent the voters for either side were.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
We know younger people are much more likely to be for Remain, and also over the past 20 years the numbers going to university has increased dramatically, such that roughly 50% go. Those who are 50+, there were far far fewer universities and it was the exception rather than the rule that you went to university.0 -
Yebbut I got my PhD in 2002Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
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The current architecture only works because all the big fish are in the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
Your whole reply is based on a fundamental lack of knowledge of what EFTA membership actually means and its relationship with the EU. Not surprising as you do seem to indulge in a state of wilful ignorance when it comes to the EU.williamglenn said:
Given that your preferred arrangement of being in EFTA/EEA would turn us into a political parasite of the EU that seems an odd position.
Do you think that the whole of Europe would have a chance of 'moving into the main river' if the EU disappeared, or is this happy state something reserved only for the hangers-on who are part of the single market but disdain the EU without which it wouldn't exist?0 -
In fairness that was before we built the tunnel.rottenborough said:
Shakespeare had the answer to this guff:DavidL said:
Adding to the merriment of the nation.SandyRentool said:Abbott: We have to have freedom of movement because we are close to France.
Canada has only dodged it because they are too far away.
FFS.
This precious stone set in the silver sea,
Which serves it in the office of a wall
Or as a moat defensive to a house,
Against the envy of less happier lands.
Richard II
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F1: if Alonso's odds have shortened in the title market because he has a realistic crack at becoming Hamilton's team mate (4.5, short odds third favourite behind 4 for Wehrlein and Bottas) then Vandoorne's 67 will also, surely, shorten, as any new team mate will not be as good as Alonso.
Just put a tiny amount, each way, on Vandoorne. Might be getting a bit carried away, but stranger things have happened. And the stakes are very small.0 -
Stephen Kinnock (who backed Remain) to UKIP is about as likely as Nigel Farage to the Liberal Democrats. What an odd option.0
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https://youtu.be/9ZWk0reffXkDavidL said:As I have said these offers are ridiculous but it is hard to criticise a company that produces adverts like the current turnaround steward one. I can't put the link up on this phone but it is seriously good and well worth a google if you haven't seen it.
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Mr Hodges in the Mail:
"In the post-Brexit world, the Labour Party is no longer fit for purpose. It is carrying too much political baggage. The divisions are now too wide, the scars are too deep. Labour, as currently branded and constituted, can no longer reach a sufficient political critical mass to govern. It cannot even get close to a working majority. The constituency to deliver one simply doesn’t exist any longer. Up until now I’d been sceptical about talk of a new Centre-Left party. But this morning I don’t see any alternative."
And
"Those people – myself included – who had seen the removal of Jeremy Corbyn as the key to Labour’s salvation have been deluding themselves."0 -
Those in favour, say "i"rottenborough said:
Will they pay out if gets a column at the Independent?Sunil_Prasannan said:Jeremy Corbyn to "independent"?
Seriously? 0 -
There are lots of French origin people in the Quebec area of Canada. Does Quebec have a special people movement arrangement with France nowadays?SandyRentool said:Abbott: We have to have freedom of movement because we are close to France.
Canada has only dodged it because they are too far away.
FFS.0 -
I'm shocked as you at the discord among Kippers.Theuniondivvie said:
Delete your account.TheScreamingEagles said:ICYMI. (My tweet was also retweeted by one Raheem Kassam)
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/805194364393820160
Does this mean that wee Raheem isn't too keen on his new leader?
Discord amongst the Kippers, who'd have thunk it.
Paging Kippers and Leavers, the afternoon thread is likely to violate your safe space.
Consider this your trigger warning.0 -
There's been periods of 'cohabitation' before with a President of one party and a government of another.rcs1000 said:
With great difficulty. The FN is unlikely to have any representation in the Senate at all.another_richard said:
If Le Pen did win how would she form a government ?rcs1000 said:
I think the interesting comparison between Austria and France is under the circumstances where Le Pen faced Melenchon or a Green in the second round.Dromedary said:Italy, NO, 1.37; Austria, Hofer, 1.36: little change from yesterday.
In France, Le Pen is at 4.2. Her price is bound to come in slightly after the Italian NO result and a fortiori if Hofer wins in Austria. That's even if Grillo sticks two fingers up at his voters and says he doesn't want a referendum on the euro any more and Hofer says he's sure he can work things out so that no Oexit referendum will be needed - which I don't think they're likely to do.
More seriously, if you want to buy Le Pen at 4.25, I'll sell to you all day.
I can't remember if they're viewed as periods of chaos, inaction or good government.
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MSmithson to UKIP 1,000,000,000/1Philip_Thompson said:Stephen Kinnock (who backed Remain) to UKIP is about as likely as Nigel Farage to the Liberal Democrats. What an odd option.
TSE to UKIP 10,000,000,000/1
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There is obviously almost no chance* that the LibDems will Sleaford. But I can't blame them for putting in a little bit of effort. The Labour Party is currently imploding, and increasing their vote share into the double digits would allow them to boast of continuing progress.David_Evershed said:theakes said:David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.
Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
I have a theory that the entire LibDem strategy for the next three and a half years is based around Sunil's chart of their by-election performances**. Once they've got that sorted, they'll move onto something else.
* I guess it is theoretically possible that the LibDems get the entire Remain vote in Sleaford, while the Out vote is split evenly between UKIP and the Conservatives. But I wouldn't want to put any money on it.
** Sunil seems to have stopped putting up his LibDem by-election performance chart. [Innocent Face].0 -
Does you have a link to Nuttall's alleged "ONLINE" CV?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm shocked as you at the discord among Kippers.Theuniondivvie said:
Delete your account.TheScreamingEagles said:ICYMI. (My tweet was also retweeted by one Raheem Kassam)
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/805194364393820160
Does this mean that wee Raheem isn't too keen on his new leader?
Discord amongst the Kippers, who'd have thunk it.
Paging Kippers and Leavers, the afternoon thread is likely to violate your safe space.
Consider this your trigger warning.0 -
Thanks. It's a cracker.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://youtu.be/9ZWk0reffXkDavidL said:As I have said these offers are ridiculous but it is hard to criticise a company that produces adverts like the current turnaround steward one. I can't put the link up on this phone but it is seriously good and well worth a google if you haven't seen it.
0 -
There are two obvious takers for those odds you are offering, Sunil. Take care now....Sunil_Prasannan said:
MSmithson to UKIP 1,000,000,000/1Philip_Thompson said:Stephen Kinnock (who backed Remain) to UKIP is about as likely as Nigel Farage to the Liberal Democrats. What an odd option.
TSE to UKIP 10,000,000,000/10 -
Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
Older people did not have the opportunity to go to University that young people have had in the last 15 years.
So the figures may be a reflection of the attitudes of young versus old - as well as terminal education age.
0 -
Pretty meaningless statistic as that correlates basically with age too. People like my grandparents generation that survived WWII mainly didn't go to university (and nor did the next generation either) but they did serve their country and work for many decades with nearly a centuries experience to look back on in my granddad's case.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
While for my generation half have gone to university. I have a postgraduate qualification but would not be stupid or ignorant enough to think that automatically makes me smarter or more informed than my elders that don't have formal university qualifications.0 -
I'll have a tenner on me defecting to UKIP.Sunil_Prasannan said:
MSmithson to UKIP 1,000,000,000/1Philip_Thompson said:Stephen Kinnock (who backed Remain) to UKIP is about as likely as Nigel Farage to the Liberal Democrats. What an odd option.
TSE to UKIP 10,000,000,000/1
Totally unrelated does anyone have a link to joining UKIP online ?0 -
I would be extremely surprised if Bellen won. The FPO has moved up about 3-5% in the Austrian polls since the last election, and that was (generously) neck and neck.another_richard said:van der Bellen now out to 3.2
Does anyone have the up to date news from Austria ?
I would reckon 52:48 to Hofer.0 -
Is that the Dan 'no path to a Trump victory' Hodges:IanB2 said:Mr Hodges in the Mail:
"In the post-Brexit world, the Labour Party is no longer fit for purpose. It is carrying too much political baggage. The divisions are now too wide, the scars are too deep. Labour, as currently branded and constituted, can no longer reach a sufficient political critical mass to govern. It cannot even get close to a working majority. The constituency to deliver one simply doesn’t exist any longer. Up until now I’d been sceptical about talk of a new Centre-Left party. But this morning I don’t see any alternative."
And
"Those people – myself included – who had seen the removal of Jeremy Corbyn as the key to Labour’s salvation have been deluding themselves."
https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/792777977570398208
0 -
What was that old line of now that we have established the principle we merely have to establish the price?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll have a tenner on me defecting to UKIP.Sunil_Prasannan said:
MSmithson to UKIP 1,000,000,000/1Philip_Thompson said:Stephen Kinnock (who backed Remain) to UKIP is about as likely as Nigel Farage to the Liberal Democrats. What an odd option.
TSE to UKIP 10,000,000,000/1
Totally unrelated does anyone have a link to joining UKIP online ?0 -
LinkedIn has itself deleted it, following the controversy. UKIP says it hadn't been updated since 2009 - which makes it all the more an incredible smear.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Does you have a link to Nuttall's alleged "ONLINE" CV?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm shocked as you at the discord among Kippers.Theuniondivvie said:
Delete your account.TheScreamingEagles said:ICYMI. (My tweet was also retweeted by one Raheem Kassam)
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/805194364393820160
Does this mean that wee Raheem isn't too keen on his new leader?
Discord amongst the Kippers, who'd have thunk it.
Paging Kippers and Leavers, the afternoon thread is likely to violate your safe space.
Consider this your trigger warning.0 -
I think M Smithson to Green would be even longer.Sunil_Prasannan said:
MSmithson to UKIP 1,000,000,000/1Philip_Thompson said:Stephen Kinnock (who backed Remain) to UKIP is about as likely as Nigel Farage to the Liberal Democrats. What an odd option.
TSE to UKIP 10,000,000,000/1
0 -
In fairness he was a long way from being alone in thinking that.another_richard said:
Is that the Dan 'no path to a Trump victory' Hodges:IanB2 said:Mr Hodges in the Mail:
"In the post-Brexit world, the Labour Party is no longer fit for purpose. It is carrying too much political baggage. The divisions are now too wide, the scars are too deep. Labour, as currently branded and constituted, can no longer reach a sufficient political critical mass to govern. It cannot even get close to a working majority. The constituency to deliver one simply doesn’t exist any longer. Up until now I’d been sceptical about talk of a new Centre-Left party. But this morning I don’t see any alternative."
And
"Those people – myself included – who had seen the removal of Jeremy Corbyn as the key to Labour’s salvation have been deluding themselves."
https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/7927779775703982080 -
Well presumably it's a hundred billion, otherwise it could have been less than a tenner!DavidL said:
What was that old line of now that we have established the principle we merely have to establish the price?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll have a tenner on me defecting to UKIP.Sunil_Prasannan said:
MSmithson to UKIP 1,000,000,000/1Philip_Thompson said:Stephen Kinnock (who backed Remain) to UKIP is about as likely as Nigel Farage to the Liberal Democrats. What an odd option.
TSE to UKIP 10,000,000,000/1
Totally unrelated does anyone have a link to joining UKIP online ?0 -
True. But I didn't mention intelligence.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is a massive flaw in this stat that is widely banded about, when it is some how equated to how intelligent the voters for either side were.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
We know younger people are much more likely to be for Remain, and also over the past 20 years the numbers going to university has increased dramatically, such that roughly 50% go. Those who are 50+, there were far far fewer universities and it was the exception rather than the rule that you went to university.
Another nice statistic is that the only counting areas in England outside of London that reported majorities for YES in the AV referendum were in Oxford and Cambridge. "Intelligence" is not what I'd put that down to 0 -
Yep. We have had this idiotic claim made before on here concerning Leave voters and degrees. All it really reveals is a basic knowledge gap by those repeating the stats about the changes in higher education attainment over the last 40 years.Philip_Thompson said:
Pretty meaningless statistic as that correlates basically with age too. People like my grandparents generation that survived WWII mainly didn't go to university (and nor did the next generation either) but they did serve their country and work for many decades with nearly a centuries experience to look back on in my granddad's case.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
While for my generation half have gone to university. I have a postgraduate qualification but would not be stupid or ignorant enough to think that automatically makes me smarter or more informed than my elders that don't have formal university qualifications.0 -
Bellen now 3.25rcs1000 said:
I would be extremely surprised if Bellen won. The FPO has moved up about 3-5% in the Austrian polls since the last election, and that was (generously) neck and neck.another_richard said:van der Bellen now out to 3.2
Does anyone have the up to date news from Austria ?
I would reckon 52:48 to Hofer.
Perhaps this is the time when Betfair odds are a good predictor.
0 -
I got the one for the 2010-2015 parliamentrcs1000 said:
There is obviously almost no chance* that the LibDems will Sleaford. But I can't blame them for putting in a little bit of effort. The Labour Party is currently imploding, and increasing their vote share into the double digits would allow them to boast of continuing progress.David_Evershed said:theakes said:David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.
Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
I have a theory that the entire LibDem strategy for the next three and a half years is based around Sunil's chart of their by-election performances**. Once they've got that sorted, they'll move onto something else.
* I guess it is theoretically possible that the LibDems get the entire Remain vote in Sleaford, while the Out vote is split evenly between UKIP and the Conservatives. But I wouldn't want to put any money on it.
** Sunil seems to have stopped putting up his LibDem by-election performance chart. [Innocent Face].
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5533577743072051210 -
I think even the "level of education" claim is inaccurate. Putting aside the numerous crap universities and mickey mouse degrees, there are lots of people going to university to gain a degree in something that 25+ year ago was taught via evening classes / gaining a different qualification. Even those getting into jobs such as teaching (primary education) and nursing were regularly not doing degrees.Dromedary said:
True. But I didn't mention intelligence.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is a massive flaw in this stat that is widely banded about, when it is some how equated to how intelligent the voters for either side were.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
We know younger people are much more likely to be for Remain, and also over the past 20 years the numbers going to university has increased dramatically, such that roughly 50% go. Those who are 50+, there were far far fewer universities and it was the exception rather than the rule that you went to university.
Another nice statistic is that the only counting areas in England outside of London that reported majorities for YES in the AV referendum were in Oxford and Cambridge. "Intelligence" is not what I'd put that down to0 -
Supposition based on no actual evidence whatsoever.williamglenn said:
The current architecture only works because all the big fish are in the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
Your whole reply is based on a fundamental lack of knowledge of what EFTA membership actually means and its relationship with the EU. Not surprising as you do seem to indulge in a state of wilful ignorance when it comes to the EU.williamglenn said:
Given that your preferred arrangement of being in EFTA/EEA would turn us into a political parasite of the EU that seems an odd position.
Do you think that the whole of Europe would have a chance of 'moving into the main river' if the EU disappeared, or is this happy state something reserved only for the hangers-on who are part of the single market but disdain the EU without which it wouldn't exist?
0 -
Yep. We were the bright ones and we voted Leave.FrancisUrquhart said:
Those who are 50+, there were far far fewer universities and it was the exception rather than the rule that you went to university.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)0 -
As if Tories would care , the truth is immaterial to themDavid_Evershed said:
There seems to be no evidence that Paul Nuttall has ever made these claims. Other people have made the claims about him.TheScreamingEagles said:ICYMI. (My tweet was also retweeted by one Raheem Kassam)
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/805194364393820160
Paul Nuttall says he is registered to do a Ph.D at Hope University and he hopes to complete it one day; and that he played for Tranmere Rovers juniors not seniors.0 -
There is a difference between intelligence and judgement.Dromedary said:
True. But I didn't mention intelligence.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is a massive flaw in this stat that is widely banded about, when it is some how equated to how intelligent the voters for either side were.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
We know younger people are much more likely to be for Remain, and also over the past 20 years the numbers going to university has increased dramatically, such that roughly 50% go. Those who are 50+, there were far far fewer universities and it was the exception rather than the rule that you went to university.
Another nice statistic is that the only counting areas in England outside of London that reported majorities for YES in the AV referendum were in Oxford and Cambridge. "Intelligence" is not what I'd put that down to
Intelligent people can have bad judgement (and vice versa).0 -
True, but that only shows that the arrogance of intellectual certainty is no rare thing.DavidL said:
In fairness he was a long way from being alone in thinking that.another_richard said:
Is that the Dan 'no path to a Trump victory' Hodges:IanB2 said:Mr Hodges in the Mail:
"In the post-Brexit world, the Labour Party is no longer fit for purpose. It is carrying too much political baggage. The divisions are now too wide, the scars are too deep. Labour, as currently branded and constituted, can no longer reach a sufficient political critical mass to govern. It cannot even get close to a working majority. The constituency to deliver one simply doesn’t exist any longer. Up until now I’d been sceptical about talk of a new Centre-Left party. But this morning I don’t see any alternative."
And
"Those people – myself included – who had seen the removal of Jeremy Corbyn as the key to Labour’s salvation have been deluding themselves."
https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/792777977570398208
I would have thought that after the last 18 months people would be less certain about making these hardcore predictions of the future.
But clearly Dan Hodges thinks he knows better.
Amusingly that sort of thing was being written in the summer of 1992:
In the post-communist world, the Labour Party is no longer fit for purpose. It is carrying too much political baggage. The divisions are now too wide, the scars are too deep. Labour, as currently branded and constituted, can no longer reach a sufficient political critical mass to govern. It cannot even get close to a working majority. The constituency to deliver one simply doesn’t exist any longer. Up until now I’d been sceptical about talk of a new Centre-Left party. But this morning I don’t see any alternative.
0 -
Yes. As someone else with postgrad stuff - the idea that attending University makes you smarter doesn't survive contact with many graduates. What, hopefully, occurs is learning how to learn, on a self motivated basis. To follow the thought to an off topic pasture - I have done quite a lot of interviewing over the years, and recently realised the existence a big differentiator between the graduates who I want to employ and those I don't...Philip_Thompson said:
Pretty meaningless statistic as that correlates basically with age too. People like my grandparents generation that survived WWII mainly didn't go to university (and nor did the next generation either) but they did serve their country and work for many decades with nearly a centuries experience to look back on in my granddad's case.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
While for my generation half have gone to university. I have a postgraduate qualification but would not be stupid or ignorant enough to think that automatically makes me smarter or more informed than my elders that don't have formal university qualifications.
I started asking about the structure of their university course. The ones who did a course which consisted of 9-5 lectures day in day out tended to be less employable (self starting, flexible etc) than those who got a smaller number of lectures and more work to self organise. I think that the former are missing out on learning how to get stuff done when it is just up to themselves....0 -
It was actually tested by academic statistical analysis - linked quite widely on here back in the summer - that established from multi-variate analysis that age and proportion of degree-level qualifications together explained an extremely high component of the area-by-area differences in the Remain/leave vote. Much of the remainder appeared subjectively explainable by regional political factors, such as Scotland being a lot and Wales a little more Remain than the model would suggest.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. We have had this idiotic claim made before on here concerning Leave voters and degrees. All it really reveals is a basic knowledge gap by those repeating the stats about the changes in higher education attainment over the last 40 years.Philip_Thompson said:
Pretty meaningless statistic as that correlates basically with age too. People like my grandparents generation that survived WWII mainly didn't go to university (and nor did the next generation either) but they did serve their country and work for many decades with nearly a centuries experience to look back on in my granddad's case.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
While for my generation half have gone to university. I have a postgraduate qualification but would not be stupid or ignorant enough to think that automatically makes me smarter or more informed than my elders that don't have formal university qualifications.
A particularly interesting finding was that London came out on par in the model - I.e. The London difference appears to arise from its age and educational profile, rather than wealth per se, or any other London-specific criterion.0 -
Who was suggesting direct causation? I have a PhD and my mother left formal education with O Levels. I don't think I'm smarter than she was.Philip_Thompson said:People like my grandparents generation that survived WWII mainly didn't go to university (and nor did the next generation either) but they did serve their country and work for many decades with nearly a centuries experience to look back on in my granddad's case.
While for my generation half have gone to university. I have a postgraduate qualification but would not be stupid or ignorant enough to think that automatically makes me smarter or more informed than my elders that don't have formal university qualifications.
0 -
Quants tend to have bags of education, top IQ scores etc. And these were the people who though Greek CDS was an excellent plan. And managed not to notice correlation inside the other derivatives they were betting their banks on.David_Evershed said:
There is a difference between intelligence and judgement.Dromedary said:
True. But I didn't mention intelligence.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is a massive flaw in this stat that is widely banded about, when it is some how equated to how intelligent the voters for either side were.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
We know younger people are much more likely to be for Remain, and also over the past 20 years the numbers going to university has increased dramatically, such that roughly 50% go. Those who are 50+, there were far far fewer universities and it was the exception rather than the rule that you went to university.
Another nice statistic is that the only counting areas in England outside of London that reported majorities for YES in the AV referendum were in Oxford and Cambridge. "Intelligence" is not what I'd put that down to
Intelligent people can have bad judgement (and vice versa).0 -
That brings back sweet memories of one essay and one tutorial each week, plus an occasional lecture, leaving me such a wonderfully large amount of time for lots of self motivated learning and off-pasture thinking.Malmesbury said:
Yes. As someone else with postgrad stuff - the idea that attending University makes you smarter doesn't survive contact with many graduates. What, hopefully, occurs is learning how to learn, on a self motivated basis. To follow the thought to an off topic pasture - I have done quite a lot of interviewing over the years, and recently realised the existence a big differentiator between the graduates who I want to employ and those I don't...Philip_Thompson said:
Pretty meaningless statistic as that correlates basically with age too. People like my grandparents generation that survived WWII mainly didn't go to university (and nor did the next generation either) but they did serve their country and work for many decades with nearly a centuries experience to look back on in my granddad's case.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
While for my generation half have gone to university. I have a postgraduate qualification but would not be stupid or ignorant enough to think that automatically makes me smarter or more informed than my elders that don't have formal university qualifications.
I started asking about the structure of their university course. The ones who did a course which consisted of 9-5 lectures day in day out tended to be less employable (self starting, flexible etc) than those who got a smaller number of lectures and more work to self organise. I think that the former are missing out on learning how to get stuff done when it is just up to themselves....
0 -
Ph.D.s are ten a penny on this PB site - so your point is made.Dromedary said:
Who was suggesting direct causation? I have a PhD and my mother left formal education with O Levels. I don't think I'm smarter than she was.Philip_Thompson said:People like my grandparents generation that survived WWII mainly didn't go to university (and nor did the next generation either) but they did serve their country and work for many decades with nearly a centuries experience to look back on in my granddad's case.
While for my generation half have gone to university. I have a postgraduate qualification but would not be stupid or ignorant enough to think that automatically makes me smarter or more informed than my elders that don't have formal university qualifications. 0 -
I thought that was a prerequisite for being a poster here? Along with enjoying regular business and first class air travel?David_Evershed said:
Ph.D.s are ten a penny on this PB site - so your point is made.Dromedary said:
Who was suggesting direct causation? I have a PhD and my mother left formal education with O Levels. I don't think I'm smarter than she was.Philip_Thompson said:People like my grandparents generation that survived WWII mainly didn't go to university (and nor did the next generation either) but they did serve their country and work for many decades with nearly a centuries experience to look back on in my granddad's case.
While for my generation half have gone to university. I have a postgraduate qualification but would not be stupid or ignorant enough to think that automatically makes me smarter or more informed than my elders that don't have formal university qualifications.0 -
I understand that age and educational background were separately correlated with Leave/Remain by multivate analysis. Whether there were other compounding variables I do not know.Philip_Thompson said:
Pretty meaningless statistic as that correlates basically with age too. People like my grandparents generation that survived WWII mainly didn't go to university (and nor did the next generation either) but they did serve their country and work for many decades with nearly a centuries experience to look back on in my granddad's case.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
While for my generation half have gone to university. I have a postgraduate qualification but would not be stupid or ignorant enough to think that automatically makes me smarter or more informed than my elders that don't have formal university qualifications.
Off Topic: Could you check into the PB Diplomacy game, there are a few messages waiting.0 -
I definitely remember tensor algebra in general relativity requiring some smarts.0
-
Yeah and he was right no one could say by looking at those two data points that there was a path and that Trump was going to smash the non existant blue wall. trump smashed it on the day voting tho.another_richard said:
Is that the Dan 'no path to a Trump victory' Hodges:IanB2 said:Mr Hodges in the Mail:
"In the post-Brexit world, the Labour Party is no longer fit for purpose. It is carrying too much political baggage. The divisions are now too wide, the scars are too deep. Labour, as currently branded and constituted, can no longer reach a sufficient political critical mass to govern. It cannot even get close to a working majority. The constituency to deliver one simply doesn’t exist any longer. Up until now I’d been sceptical about talk of a new Centre-Left party. But this morning I don’t see any alternative."
And
"Those people – myself included – who had seen the removal of Jeremy Corbyn as the key to Labour’s salvation have been deluding themselves."
https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/7927779775703982080 -
They tested a range of other variables, including wealth, a proxy for change in wealth, unemployment, ethnic mix/proportion of immigrants, but none explained a significantly greater proportion of the variance than the model using age and qualifications alone.foxinsoxuk said:
I understand that age and educational background were separately correlated with Leave/Remain by multivate analysis. Whether there were other compounding variables I do not know.Philip_Thompson said:
Pretty meaningless statistic as that correlates basically with age too. People like my grandparents generation that survived WWII mainly didn't go to university (and nor did the next generation either) but they did serve their country and work for many decades with nearly a centuries experience to look back on in my granddad's case.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
While for my generation half have gone to university. I have a postgraduate qualification but would not be stupid or ignorant enough to think that automatically makes me smarter or more informed than my elders that don't have formal university qualifications.
Off Topic: Could you check into the PB Diplomacy game, there are a few messages waiting.
Of course there is lots of cross-correlation here, but then the whole idea of multi-variate analysis is to zoom in on the variables that appear most closely correlated with the object variable.0 -
The difference between PhD and undergraduate science is significant.
As an undergraduate you are only set problems that have been solved.0 -
Greens have dropped their recount request for PA in state court, instead they are going federal.0
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what is Jezza's poition on immigration?SandyRentool said:Abbott now rubbishing Jezza's position on migration!
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This....It was the first thing I was told in my induction of PhD #1.Jonathan said:The difference between PhD and undergraduate science is significant.
As an undergraduate you are only set problems that have been solved.0 -
Intelligence backed by knowledge helps screen out obviously wrong solutions before you have made a choice, but often doesn't make it any easier to abandon a wrong answer after you have selected it.0
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If only he'd been listening to Plato....nunu said:
Yeah and he was right no one could say by looking at those two data points that there was a path and that Trump was going to smash the non existant blue wall. trump smashed it on the day voting tho.another_richard said:
Is that the Dan 'no path to a Trump victory' Hodges:IanB2 said:Mr Hodges in the Mail:
"In the post-Brexit world, the Labour Party is no longer fit for purpose. It is carrying too much political baggage. The divisions are now too wide, the scars are too deep. Labour, as currently branded and constituted, can no longer reach a sufficient political critical mass to govern. It cannot even get close to a working majority. The constituency to deliver one simply doesn’t exist any longer. Up until now I’d been sceptical about talk of a new Centre-Left party. But this morning I don’t see any alternative."
And
"Those people – myself included – who had seen the removal of Jeremy Corbyn as the key to Labour’s salvation have been deluding themselves."
https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/7927779775703982080 -
The text reads as if written to sell papers more than inform readers. The UK has a machine for government called the Tory party. It usually stays together sufficiently to win >35-40% of the vote. The left ignores the harsh arithmetic of the FPTP system. It didn't bring in PR when it had a chance, i.e., 8 years of large majorities between 1997 and 2005.IanB2 said:Mr Hodges in the Mail:
"In the post-Brexit world, the Labour Party is no longer fit for purpose. It is carrying too much political baggage. The divisions are now too wide, the scars are too deep. Labour, as currently branded and constituted, can no longer reach a sufficient political critical mass to govern. It cannot even get close to a working majority. The constituency to deliver one simply doesn’t exist any longer. Up until now I’d been sceptical about talk of a new Centre-Left party. But this morning I don’t see any alternative."
And
"Those people – myself included – who had seen the removal of Jeremy Corbyn as the key to Labour’s salvation have been deluding themselves."0 -
The people on the other side of the trade had PhDs too...Malmesbury said:
Quants tend to have bags of education, top IQ scores etc. And these were the people who though Greek CDS was an excellent plan. And managed not to notice correlation inside the other derivatives they were betting their banks on.David_Evershed said:
There is a difference between intelligence and judgement.Dromedary said:
True. But I didn't mention intelligence.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is a massive flaw in this stat that is widely banded about, when it is some how equated to how intelligent the voters for either side were.Dromedary said:
That's a very striking figure. And the earlier they left formal education, the more likely people were to vote Leave:Barnesian said:I've been looking at correlations between % Leave and various attributes across all the GB constituencies including party share in May 15.
The highest correlation (negative) is between % Leave and % with degrees in each constituency. It is -0.92 i.e an excellent predictor of the %Leave vote. No surprise there.
highest academic achievement GCSE or lower: 70% Leave
A levels and no degree: 50% Leave
university graduate (includes next group): 32% Leave
postgraduate qualification: 27% Leave
(Sources: here and here.)
We know younger people are much more likely to be for Remain, and also over the past 20 years the numbers going to university has increased dramatically, such that roughly 50% go. Those who are 50+, there were far far fewer universities and it was the exception rather than the rule that you went to university.
Another nice statistic is that the only counting areas in England outside of London that reported majorities for YES in the AV referendum were in Oxford and Cambridge. "Intelligence" is not what I'd put that down to
Intelligent people can have bad judgement (and vice versa).0 -
And she seemed such a lovely person..
https://twitter.com/Odbe34/status/805382059233603584
Aargh, just noticed 'Farage filly'.
Hello breakfast, nice to see you again.0 -
Btw, you need to change the title...Sunil_Prasannan said:
I got the one for the 2010-2015 parliamentrcs1000 said:
There is obviously almost no chance* that the LibDems will Sleaford. But I can't blame them for putting in a little bit of effort. The Labour Party is currently imploding, and increasing their vote share into the double digits would allow them to boast of continuing progress.David_Evershed said:theakes said:David Evershed: Lib Dems say had at least 50 helpers yesterday at Sleaford, expecting more today, they have had a local base team in place for 3 weeks, expect to deliver at least 3 leafelets to most of the population by the election day, including the usual " controversial "paper". Believe Farron has been since Thursday.
Sleaford etc Lib Dems seem to have missed the postal voter by a couple of weeks and 50 helpers yesterday compares unfavourably with over 1000 one Richmond weekend.
I have a theory that the entire LibDem strategy for the next three and a half years is based around Sunil's chart of their by-election performances**. Once they've got that sorted, they'll move onto something else.
* I guess it is theoretically possible that the LibDems get the entire Remain vote in Sleaford, while the Out vote is split evenly between UKIP and the Conservatives. But I wouldn't want to put any money on it.
** Sunil seems to have stopped putting up his LibDem by-election performance chart. [Innocent Face].
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5533577743072051210 -
She was on the UKIP NEC until resigning from it in August over the Woolfe affair, though she wanted him to be able to stand, so probably moved on a little since her days in the NF.Theuniondivvie said:And she seemed such a lovely person..
https://twitter.com/Odbe34/status/805382059233603584
Aargh, just noticed 'Farage filly'.
Hello breakfast, nice to see you again.0 -
Anyway, chaps, I'm off. Don't forget to give Kingdom Asunder a look (it's bugging me that review scores are identical on US and UK Amazon, but the former downgrades to 4.7 and the latter has the average at 4.8 [which is mathematically correct]).0
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I agree - and normally I dislike the Hodges stuff, all too obviously working to an agenda and selling his own pitch as a notional ex-leftie who has now seen some kind of light. His relentless anti-Miliband and anti-Corbyn stuff was usually light on any sort of insight. That even he is starting to realise the Labour vehicle is the problem, rather than the personality of the person (man) at the top, does however surely represent a bit of progression of his thinking?rural_voter said:
The text reads as if written to sell papers more than inform readers. The UK has a machine for government called the Tory party. It usually stays together sufficiently to win >35-40% of the vote. The left ignores the harsh arithmetic of the FPTP system. It didn't bring in PR when it had a chance, i.e., 8 years of large majorities between 1997 and 2005.IanB2 said:Mr Hodges in the Mail:
"In the post-Brexit world, the Labour Party is no longer fit for purpose. It is carrying too much political baggage. The divisions are now too wide, the scars are too deep. Labour, as currently branded and constituted, can no longer reach a sufficient political critical mass to govern. It cannot even get close to a working majority. The constituency to deliver one simply doesn’t exist any longer. Up until now I’d been sceptical about talk of a new Centre-Left party. But this morning I don’t see any alternative."
And
"Those people – myself included – who had seen the removal of Jeremy Corbyn as the key to Labour’s salvation have been deluding themselves."
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Richard_Tyndall said:
Because membership of the EU Customs Union prevents us making our own trade deals with other countries because of the Common External Tariff. It is indeed the worst of both worlds.
I know this gets boring for everyone else. For me too. But one last pass round for luck, because it is important stuff. Other countries will not stop making preferential trade agreements with us because of hypothetical restrictions imposed by us being in a supposedly unfavourable customs union with the EU. They will not be doing preferential trade agreements with us because they take forever, consume to much political capital and no-one wants to do them anymore. The choice isn't between outside the EU trading system and a bunch of much more valuable FTAs with third countries versus relying on the EU trading system. It's between outside the EU trading system with no FTAs, operating on an MFN basis with everyone, with extra trade barriers, versus relying on the EU trading system. Dealing with the world as it is rather than as we would like it to be should change the discussion IMO.0 -
Am I right in thinking that past membership of the NF disqualifies someone from becoming a UKIP candidate, or is that only the BNP?foxinsoxuk said:
She was on the UKIP NEC until resigning from it in August over the Woolfe affair, though she wanted him to be able to stand, so probably moved on a little since her days in the NF.Theuniondivvie said:And she seemed such a lovely person..
https://twitter.com/Odbe34/status/805382059233603584
Aargh, just noticed 'Farage filly'.
Hello breakfast, nice to see you again.0 -
my broher is thinking about doing a Phd in the area of neuroscience but the pay/stripend is crap so he is applying for consulting jobs.Jonathan said:The difference between PhD and undergraduate science is significant.
As an undergraduate you are only set problems that have been solved.0 -
Well of all medical fields neurosurgery still has more questions than answers even in its more routine branches, so probably a good choice.nunu said:
my broher is thinking about doing a Phdin the area of neuroscience but the pay/stripend is crap so he is applyong for consulting jobs.Jonathan said:The difference between PhD and undergraduate science is significant.
As an undergraduate you are only set problems that have been solved.0 -
You don't do a PhD for the money....If you break down the hourly rate, given it ain't a 35 hr / week "job" is even worse. I would think I averaged 50-60hrs a week on mine.nunu said:
my broher is thinking about doing a Phd in the area of neuroscience but the pay/stripend is crap so he is applying for consulting jobs.Jonathan said:The difference between PhD and undergraduate science is significant.
As an undergraduate you are only set problems that have been solved.0
