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Second, like Zac

Mike's absolutely correct.

Next thread?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour is slashing the Tory lead with YouGov


Con 39 (-2)

Lab 27 (-1)

LD 9 (nc)

UKIP 14 (+2)

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/02/voting-intention-conservatives-39-labour-27/

Interesting, that YouGov poll has more people saying Leaving the EU was the wrong decision than saying it was the right decision

Extrapolating the trend, we'll have Lab-Con parity at 15% each, with the Kippers on 38%...

From the last thread....

peter_from_putney said:

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: just checking the thread.

Alonso would be a very exciting alternative. However, for a team that's had increasing inter-driver tension, putting together Alonso and Hamilton (again) would be a brave decision.

As suggested by me earlier on this thread - Alonso is the blindingly obvious top pick and great value at 20/1 to win next season's Drivers' Championship. If Lewis doesn't like it .... tough cookie.

20/1 is tempting odds, but I have a sneaking feeling that Alonso/Hamilton would just be too much potential trouble to justify the expense to the Mercedes corporates... and that Alonso has possibly lost the odd tenth in absolute speed.
My guess would be either Sainz - who is demonstrably quick, mature, relatively cheap, and looking for drive with a top team or Perez/Bottas whose teams Merc can lean on a bit as engine supplier (Perez looking the better of the two to me).

FPT:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/804712202976526337

Quick reading of the breakdown of figures suggests they broadly follow other recent polls:

Labour ahead amongst under 40s. Tories ahead amongst over 40s. However, of course, there are more voters in the latter category, they are more likely to vote, and the Tory lead amongst pensioners is enormous - 54:17 in this poll, with Labour almost at parity with Ukip.

Tories have a 28pt lead in the South outside London. This is very nearly as big as the lead held by the SNP over the second party in Scotland. The difference: the combined South-East, South-West and Eastern regions contain almost four times the number of voters and therefore return four times as many MPs as Scotland does. A catastrophe for Labour.

The Tories have a 13pt lead over Labour in the Midlands, and the two are within margin of error in London and Scotland. This poll does give Labour a 5pt lead in the North - but it also puts Ukip on 18% in the Midlands and North.

The Lib Dems are on 13% in London, in a survey taken (of course) before the Richmond Park by-election. This may suggest a path back to relevance as a party for well-to-do left libs dismayed at Corbyn's lack of zeal on the EU, but only time will tell of course.

Corbyn's ratings in a head-to-head with May continue to be abysmal, despite the fact that most respondents think the Government is handling Brexit badly. The SNP continues to look unassailable.

IanB2 said:

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

The size of Labour's vote in Richmond isn't the worry, for sure.

The fact that the party is at war with itself and cannot articulate a shared view of its policy on:

- austerity
- Brexit
- LHR3
- Trident

to pick just a few, is its more fundamental problem.

That's the least of it. Corbyn is a dead albatross around their necks who will prove utterly unelectable on the doorsteps of, say, Stoke.

Of course, but the fact that when he answers a question, a batch of his colleagues will give a very different answer, is no small part of it.

I honestly don't know how middle-of-the-road Labour MPs get out of bed in the morning, things are so bleak for them.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour is slashing the Tory lead with YouGov


Con 39 (-2)

Lab 27 (-1)

LD 9 (nc)

UKIP 14 (+2)

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/02/voting-intention-conservatives-39-labour-27/

Interesting, that YouGov poll has more people saying Leaving the EU was the wrong decision than saying it was the right decision

YouGov also had remain winning 52-48 so I'm not sure that's a surprise.

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

The size of Labour's vote in Richmond isn't the worry, for sure.

The fact that the party is at war with itself and cannot articulate a shared view of its policy on:

- austerity
- Brexit
- LHR3
- Trident

to pick just a few, is its more fundamental problem.

That's the least of it. Corbyn is a dead albatross around their necks who will prove utterly unelectable on the doorsteps of, say, Stoke.

Of course, but the fact that when he answers a question, a batch of his colleagues will give a very different answer, is no small part of it.

I honestly don't know how middle-of-the-road Labour MPs get out of bed in the morning, things are so bleak for them.

'middle of the road' is about the size of it. There is socialism, and there is liberalism, and they need to make their minds up. Many of them are where they are because, for the ambitious want-to-be-someone would-be politician, our system forces a straight Tory/Labour choice, and they knew that they weren't Tories.

So they find themselves trapped within a party that can deliver neither their ideals nor their ambitions.

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour is slashing the Tory lead with YouGov


Con 39 (-2)

Lab 27 (-1)

LD 9 (nc)

UKIP 14 (+2)

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/02/voting-intention-conservatives-39-labour-27/

Interesting, that YouGov poll has more people saying Leaving the EU was the wrong decision than saying it was the right decision

Extrapolating the trend, we'll have Lab-Con parity at 15% each, with the Kippers on 38%...

UKIP/LibDem crossover is the first to watch for.

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour is slashing the Tory lead with YouGov


Con 39 (-2)

Lab 27 (-1)

LD 9 (nc)

UKIP 14 (+2)

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/02/voting-intention-conservatives-39-labour-27/

Interesting, that YouGov poll has more people saying Leaving the EU was the wrong decision than saying it was the right decision

Only by 1 percentage point, and only after weighting. Before that, it's 46-43 thinking it was the right decision. Nice try.

There's a reason why polls are weighted.

Only someone who doesn't understand polling would think unweighted numbers are the way to go.

Edit: Err where do you get the unweighted figure of 46-43 from?

Are you confusing the 46-43 score with the 46-43 score the last time they asked the question?

MOE anyhoo.

The more interesting finding is that 50% of people think the Govt is mishandling Brexit, and only 16% think they're doing well (34% don't know)

There is definitely room here for a pro-Remain party with its act together, or a party with a clear and coherent plan for Brexit, e.g. we are going for EFTA, no ifs no buts.

Trouble is, no such party exists. It should be Labour, but they are crippled with Corbyn at the helm.

I think it is the first time wrong has been ahead, which is why it garnered my attention.

But I agree with the rest of your post.

MrsB said:

oh dear, I find myself in disagreement with OGH. I think that it is too early to know whether this means anything for Labour. Politics as usual has been thrown out the window in 2016. So we can no longer use examples from the past to predict the future with the same level of confidence.

Trump - Historic swing back to the GOP from 2 terms of DEMs
Brexit - No precedent, just 'the polls'.
Lib Dem Richmond Gain - High by-election swings to the Lib Dems are not entirely without precedent !

We'll have to see how the raw vote in Sleaford is next week but Zac's defeat could indicate a very decent Lib Dem return from the 2017 locals is my first thought(1).

If Sleaford is a low turnout unexceptional Con win then I'll be even more convinced of lemma (1)

Two horse race, hard line Corbynite v soft Brexit Tory, how would the squeezed party supporters vote?

Today's result for Labour is appalling, can't even keep a deposit with a non Corbynite candidate fighting against an unknown Lib Dem.

Garza said:

Is it wrong to hope there is the slightest of chances we are returning to Tories vs Whigs again?

I hope so. Bye bye, socialism.

It would be nice to think that the end point of this would be Conservatives and Liberals, but Labour is still holding up surprisingly well in England considering its appalling leadership, and the fact that it's behind on almost every measure of competence and public esteem save for being nice to the NHS. There is no sign of a collapse as yet, and most of its remaining Commons seats are held by very large majorities.

I stand to be proven spectacularly wrong by events, but I suspect that if Labour does die it will be a very long drawn out process...

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Rook, Lib Dems and Liberals are different things, alas.

I did say end point :-) To me, it seems that the LDs under Farron would rather enjoying becoming a continental European style, Eurofederalist, social democrat party.

Worth a read about Trump

https://medium.com/@rortybomb/learning-from-trump-in-retrospect-dce431b23ed0#.3iztmtpti

MarkSenior said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour is slashing the Tory lead with YouGov


Con 39 (-2)

Lab 27 (-1)

LD 9 (nc)

UKIP 14 (+2)

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/02/voting-intention-conservatives-39-labour-27/

Interesting, that YouGov poll has more people saying Leaving the EU was the wrong decision than saying it was the right decision

Only by 1 percentage point, and only after weighting. Before that, it's 46-43 thinking it was the right decision. Nice try.

There's a reason why polls are weighted.

Only someone who doesn't understand polling would think unweighted numbers are the way to go.

Edit: Err where do you get the unweighted figure of 46-43 from?

Are you confusing the 46-43 score with the 46-43 score the last time they asked the question?

Your blind faith assumes that the weighting sorry adjustments are not only accurately done but do not make the figures worse . As with other pollsters and past Yougov polls the weighting reduced the Lib Dem raw vote share from 10.5% to 9% .

It bears repeating, but if you look at the dozen polls before GE2015, all pollsters struggled to find enough people who said they voted LD in 2010. The result was that the LDs were continually weighted upwards; you'd regularly have 65 people saying they would vote LD, which was upweighted to 90 to deal. This 'false memory' of not voting for the LDs was one of the reasons I was so bearish on them: when people pretend they didn't even vote for you, that's a real sign of how much your vote is falling.

This time around, all the polls find too many people claiming to have voted LD in 2015. I can't think of any where the unweighted base has less than 8% for 2015, and some have as high as 12% of respondents saying they voted for the party in 2015. (That means a third of those people are misremembering voting for them last year.) The consequence of this is that the LDs are being downweighted in the polls.

What I take from this is that the LDs are doing 'ok', and are probably on 10-11%.

But we shall see. May 2017 will be very interesting.

Black_Rook said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Rook, Lib Dems and Liberals are different things, alas.

I did say end point :-) To me, it seems that the LDs under Farron would rather enjoying becoming a continental European style, Eurofederalist, social democrat party.

That's a constituency that does exist. Arguably both Labour under Blair and the Conservatives under Cameron were social democratic and fairly pro-EU so that's an election winning route.

Mr. Stodge, two points on that.

Firstly, being pro-EU is possible without being a full-blown federalist.

Secondly, the Blair and Cameron eras were before the referendum. Even many of those who would have preferred a Remain victory want the democratic result to be implemented.

The Lib Dems will benefit from the continuing uncertainty ahead of Article 50 being triggered (if it is) and Labour having the worst leader since Honorius.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour is slashing the Tory lead with YouGov


Con 39 (-2)

Lab 27 (-1)

LD 9 (nc)

UKIP 14 (+2)

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/02/voting-intention-conservatives-39-labour-27/

Interesting, that YouGov poll has more people saying Leaving the EU was the wrong decision than saying it was the right decision

If those dynamics are maintained, it'd produce crossover at Con and Lab at 15%, with UKIP on 38. Lib Dems still fourth.

EDIT - I see Mr Rentool has already done the maths upthread.

I laughed when I watched Goldsmith get defeated last night.

These arrogant posh boys think the public will back their miscalculated agendas. This year has seen the political careers of two Eton old boys vanish into the flickering flames of defeat. I shed no tears for Goldsmith, he is rich and hardly needs the job to support his family.

Surely Richmond Park Conservatives will never have Goldsmith back as a candidate? I can understand his opposition to Heathrow and instigating a by - election in 2010 but to reiterate it in 2015 was stupid. It is going to happen whether Richmond Park is held by Lib Dem, Conservative or an Independent

I cannot understand this obsession with referendums, the Lib Dems wanting another one on the EU is no guarantee that the public will back the position. Personally, I don't think the UK should ever have a referendum again, they are divisive and the outcome is always open to question. From the ignorant people I have had the misfortune to encounter since the June vote meant anything from sending all the colours home, to getting manufacturing back. Neither of which is going to happen if and when we leave the EU. I have seen directly two EU referendum related hate crimes in public places. I encouraged the EU nationals to report it to the police. In one confrontation an Irish man, who was a construction worker had a wine glass thrown at him and was spat at and told to go home in no uncertain terms. Another incident I have observed involved a delivery van driver verbally assault a woman working in a shop because of her name sounding eastern European. She was born in England to English parents and her husband was also born in England. I am disgusted by this sort of behaviour, it is not the way a civilised society should work.

I still cannot work out why any sane person is willing to take an economic hit to exit the EU when globalisation is going to carry on regardless and the nation state of the 19th century is never going to return. I certainly will be voting Labour or Lib Dem at the next election as the Tories have screwed things up massively.

rcs1000 said:

But we shall see. May 2017 will be very interesting.

Particularly if article 50 is still 'long-grassed'.

Roger said:

MrsB said:

oh dear, I find myself in disagreement with OGH. I think that it is too early to know whether this means anything for Labour. Politics as usual has been thrown out the window in 2016. So we can no longer use examples from the past to predict the future with the same level of confidence.

The real significance of last night's vote is that it legitimises rejecting Brexit. The referendum was sold on a lie no less egregious than Tony Blair's '45 minutes. Claiming we would get a rebate of £350,000,000 a week was a vote changing and deliberate falsehood.

Under those circumstances and emboldened by the voters of Richmond I can easily imagine an anti Brexit movement starting in parliament and instead of the platitudes about 'respecting democracy' they can stand proud and talk about the contempt with which our new Brexiteer leaders treated the voters during the campaign

Come on Roger,just imagine if remain had won with the bull coming from Cameron and Osborne,both sides were at .

perdix said:

The_Taxman said:

I laughed when I watched Goldsmith get defeated last night.

These arrogant posh boys think the public will back their miscalculated agendas. This year has seen the political careers of two Eton old boys vanish into the flickering flames of defeat. I shed no tears for Goldsmith, he is rich and hardly needs the job to support his family.

Surely Richmond Park Conservatives will never have Goldsmith back as a candidate? I can understand his opposition to Heathrow and instigating a by - election in 2010 but to reiterate it in 2015 was stupid. It is going to happen whether Richmond Park is held by Lib Dem, Conservative or an Independent

I cannot understand this obsession with referendums, the Lib Dems wanting another one on the EU is no guarantee that the public will back the position. Personally, I don't think the UK should ever have a referendum again, they are divisive and the outcome is always open to question. From the ignorant people I have had the misfortune to encounter since the June vote meant anything from sending all the colours home, to getting manufacturing back. Neither of which is going to happen if and when we leave the EU. I have seen directly two EU referendum related hate crimes in public places. I encouraged the EU nationals to report it to the police. In one confrontation an Irish man, who was a construction worker had a wine glass thrown at him and was spat at and told to go home in no uncertain terms. Another incident I have observed involved a delivery van driver verbally assault a woman working in a shop because of her name sounding eastern European. She was born in England to English parents and her husband was also born in England. I am disgusted by this sort of behaviour, it is not the way a civilised society should work.

I still cannot work out why any sane person is willing to take an economic hit to exit the EU when globalisation is going to carry on regardless and the nation state of the 19th century is never going to return. I certainly will be voting Labour or Lib Dem at the next election as the Tories have screwed things up massively.

To admit you will vote LibDem or Labour at the next election means you have totally lost the plot. Many Leavers want to have laws made in the UK for the UK. Many Remainers originally chose EU membership because they could not persuade their own parliament to pass the laws which they wanted.

Lol. Meanwhile back on Earth....

MyBurningEars said:

Coalition ears are not as good as burning ears

LibDems "holding back the ears'?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Taxman, if GDP rises but the wages of the lower middle and working class decline due to increased migration, which also puts pressure on local services (a migrant takes a few hours to arrive, a new road, school or hospital rather longer to build) then the country becomes richer but for many people the situation worsens.

That's a difficult square to circle, but the contempt with which those who had genuine concerns over migration were treated and the utter failure to come up with a solution means that feeling of division is not going to dissipate soon.

If we end up staying in, the bitterness and resentment could become dangerously high.

It also bears repeating that median real wages fell in Japan and the US more than in the UK over the last 15 years, which tells you that it isn't just migration affecting incomes.

(Median wages rose in Switzerland and Germany, both of whom have educational systems that concentrate on giving "the next 60%" employable skills.)

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1000, isn't Japan's due to the flatlining inflation, though?

MrsB, that does sound interesting. When's it due?

This is median real incomes, so adjusting for inflation. Their median real incomes are down about 15% since 2000.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1000, isn't Japan's due to the flatlining inflation, though?

MrsB, that does sound interesting. When's it due?

Leaping in here, it's next Thursday!
http://thelincolnite.co.uk/2016/12/watch-sleaford-north-hykeham-election-candidates-brexit-nhs-transport/

rcs1000 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Taxman, if GDP rises but the wages of the lower middle and working class decline due to increased migration, which also puts pressure on local services (a migrant takes a few hours to arrive, a new road, school or hospital rather longer to build) then the country becomes richer but for many people the situation worsens.

That's a difficult square to circle, but the contempt with which those who had genuine concerns over migration were treated and the utter failure to come up with a solution means that feeling of division is not going to dissipate soon.

If we end up staying in, the bitterness and resentment could become dangerously high.

It also bears repeating that median real wages fell in Japan and the US more than in the UK over the last 15 years, which tells you that it isn't just migration affecting incomes.

(Median wages rose in Switzerland and Germany, both of whom have educational systems that concentrate on giving "the next 60%" employable skills.)

If the GDP of the whole country increases by say 2% and bankers and company directors increase their salary and bonuses by well over 10% then the lower middle and working class may see no increase in their wages at all .

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Taxman, if GDP rises but the wages of the lower middle and working class decline due to increased migration, which also puts pressure on local services (a migrant takes a few hours to arrive, a new road, school or hospital rather longer to build) then the country becomes richer but for many people the situation worsens.

That's a difficult square to circle, but the contempt with which those who had genuine concerns over migration were treated and the utter failure to come up with a solution means that feeling of division is not going to dissipate soon.

If we end up staying in, the bitterness and resentment could become dangerously high.

We're staying in all but name.

This week it has already been stated we're staying in Justice bits, that we'd continue to contribute to the EU budget, and as Mr Observer will tell you, we've signed up to more competences for the CJEU.

BINO.

The Danish population rejected all the Justice measures in a 2015 referendum, so Denmark got an opt out. But never mind, that nice Mr. Cameron opted us in to the EAW, despite the worries that this creeping EU legal 'harmonisation' conflicts with the safeguards of individual rights in English law.

I can't remember any discussion at the time. It might be a rare issue on which - shock horror - I'd sympathise with Bill Cash.

Pulpstar said:

logical_song said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1000, isn't Japan's due to the flatlining inflation, though?

MrsB, that does sound interesting. When's it due?

Leaping in here, it's next Thursday!
http://thelincolnite.co.uk/2016/12/watch-sleaford-north-hykeham-election-candidates-brexit-nhs-transport/

Bloody hell a 15 minute interview with every candidate.

Extremely thorough !

Can't be bothered to listen to her for 15 minutes, did he ask the UKIP candidate about this?
Send them back home' Ukip candidate's 'false claim over son blown up in Afghanistan'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3045289/Send-home-Ukip-candidate-s-false-claim-son-blown-Afghanistan.html

Black_Rook said:

stodge said:

Black Rock, who is no friend of the LDs, used the term "Eurofederalist". I doubt any LDs are in all honesty. No one is talking about deeper integration (Eurozone, Schengen).

May not be talking about it. Doesn't mean they can't dream :-)

Meanwhile, O/T, a further reminder that Labour does indeed have plenty more to worry about...

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/804733821941936128

And, of course, a Labour minority administration is highly unlikely to have enough votes to secure confidence and supply without the backing of the SNP, who are widely loathed in England. Poor Labour, so sad.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Taxman, if GDP rises but the wages of the lower middle and working class decline due to increased migration, which also puts pressure on local services (a migrant takes a few hours to arrive, a new road, school or hospital rather longer to build) then the country becomes richer but for many people the situation worsens.

That's a difficult square to circle, but the contempt with which those who had genuine concerns over migration were treated and the utter failure to come up with a solution means that feeling of division is not going to dissipate soon.

If we end up staying in, the bitterness and resentment could become dangerously high.

Yes but, if lower migration leads to shortage of workers, and thus higher wages, businesses will pass costs on, which will lead to higher inflation, which will negate the higher wages. And shortages of workers would result in slow-down in construction industry, more bed-blocking as no-one to deliver domiciliary care packages, and fruit and veg unpicked and going to waste.
And there would still be inadequate infrastructure.
It's complicated, this stuff. If it was simple, someone would have sorted it long ago.
Agree with you that the feeling of division is not about to dissipate any time soon - whether we stay in, have a hard Brexit or a soft Brexit.

Mr. Song, cheers. Didn't think it was so soon.

MrsB, with inflation at 0.9% or so, a rise is no bad thing.

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour is slashing the Tory lead with YouGov


Con 39 (-2)

Lab 27 (-1)

LD 9 (nc)

UKIP 14 (+2)

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/02/voting-intention-conservatives-39-labour-27/

Interesting, that YouGov poll has more people saying Leaving the EU was the wrong decision than saying it was the right decision

Only by 1 percentage point, and only after weighting. Before that, it's 46-43 thinking it was the right decision. Nice try.

There's a reason

Garza said:

Is it wrong to hope there is the slightest of chances we are returning to Tories vs Whigs again?

I hope so. Bye bye, socialism.

in today's world that would be UKIP vs Tories so I don't think so!

(Today's Tories are basically the Radicals + the Liberal Unionists; UKIP the Adullamites, Ditchers and Joe Chamberlain's Imperial Preferencers)

We need:

a) More houses. Certain Greenbelt land sadly has to go, as a countermeasure beef up various wildlife/landscpe protections.
b) A contributory benefits system, with some sort of fee based access system as @rcs1000 has repeatedly refferred to here.
c) The ability to take hard decisions on this stuff even when toes are trod on.

MrsB said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1000, isn't Japan's due to the flatlining inflation, though?

MrsB, that does sound interesting. When's it due?

NEXT THURSDAY EVERYONE - 3 by-elections in 3 months. When did that last happen?

Surely it's four: Witney, Richmond, Batley and Spean, and then Sleaford?

edit: looking at Wiki, there were six in November 2012 on two separate dates. Corby was the only surprise result.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)

Dixie said:

Garza said:

Is it wrong to hope there is the slightest of chances we are returning to Tories vs Whigs again?

I hope so. Bye bye, socialism.

I think there could be. If Libs keep up this 'party of EU' strategy then they could poll 25%. In 2010, I think they hit 23%. Labour got 29%. If Labour lost 4% and Libs gain it, they could be the 2nd party.

I think we are a very long way indeed from that, and even if it were to happen it wouldn't, of course, follow that the Lib Dems would take over as the second party in Parliament. Labour has so many gigantic majorities that most of its MPs would comfortably survive a fall in its nationwide vote to 20%. There would need to be very large, outsized swings in a lot of Labour held seats for the party to begin to be seriously eroded in its heartlands.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour is slashing the Tory lead with YouGov


Con 39 (-2)

Lab 27 (-1)

LD 9 (nc)

UKIP 14 (+2)

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/02/voting-intention-conservatives-39-labour-27/

Interesting, that YouGov poll has more people saying Leaving the EU was the wrong decision than saying it was the right decision

Desperate TSE....

Scott_P said:

justin124 said:

I think people are wrong to assume that voting behaviour at the next election will be determined by attitudes to Brexit. It will - at most - be one issue , and I suspect that for most voters it will not be particulary salient.

It is the prism through which all other issues will be viewed.

Economy stagnant? Brexit

Immigration? Brexit

NHS funding? Brexit

Lower pound is great news for exporters though

Pulpstar said:

Lower pound is great news for exporters though

That's why SeanT was crowing about Sterling rising earlier. Oh, wait...

williamglenn said:

Does anyone know how much coverage Marianne Overton is getting from the local media? Listening to those interview snippets none of the main party candidates sounds particularly impressive and the Kipper is positively dire.

Is she anything to do with the Overton Window?

justin124 said:

Scott_P said:

justin124 said:

I think people are wrong to assume that voting behaviour at the next election will be determined by attitudes to Brexit. It will - at most - be one issue , and I suspect that for most voters it will not be particulary salient.

It is the prism through which all other issues will be viewed.

Economy stagnant? Brexit

Immigration? Brexit

NHS funding? Brexit

Political anoraks might do that , but I have a strong sense that the public at large is already sick to death of the issue -never mind in May 2020.

If they're sick to death of it there's only one way out - vote for a party that will call the whole thing off. If we press on it will dominate our politics indefinitely.

Scott_P said:

Pulpstar said:

Lower pound is great news for exporters though

That's why SeanT was crowing about Sterling rising earlier. Oh, wait...

1.2 is a nice level for everyone, importers, exporters shoppers etc etc.

1.4 KILLS exporters whilst 1.1 makes everything way too expensive from Europe.

Scott_P said:

justin124 said:

I think people are wrong to assume that voting behaviour at the next election will be determined by attitudes to Brexit. It will - at most - be one issue , and I suspect that for most voters it will not be particulary salient.

It is the prism through which all other issues will be viewed.

Economy stagnant? Brexit

Immigration? Brexit

NHS funding? Brexit

getting rsi from posting on the internet. Brexit.

@Scott_P I agree on this. Think of Brexit as a flavouring rather than the ingredients of a meal. The real danger to the UK is politics will become a Brexit was wearing/Brexit was botched dialectic. I don't believe we'll ever go back to the original Remain/Leave choice. I fear we're heading to a smug/betrayed dialectic. Brexit will be botched and then Brexit will disappoint the angry and and insecure because what they are angry and insecure about has almost nothing to do with the EU.

Such voters won't admit they were wrong. They'll feel more right that ever. The same villains, politicians and the EU, will have botched Brexit in the way they bothedvEUnmembership.

Meanwhile people like me will be screaming I told you so. Elated to be proved right but bitter that Brexit happened anyway.

If I'm right, nd recently I haven't been right, we're heading towards a period of angry cultural decline where Brexit is everything and nothing in British politics.

Alistair said:

California now reporting "semi official" results

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/

Joke nation.

That's Republics for you.

nunu said:

Alistair said:

California now reporting "semi official" results

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/

Joke nation.

That's Republics for you.

Indeed, Monarchies are far better

RobD said:

nunu said:

Alistair said:

California now reporting "semi official" results

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/

Joke nation.

That's Republics for you.

Indeed, Monarchies are far better

In California that would probably mean Queen Kardashian...