politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New entrant Ed Balls moves immediately to 3rd place in latest

SeanT said:

Alistair said:

nunu said:

SeanT said:

All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

All the lefties soberly agreed about this post-truth Nazi ideology poisoning the system.

Only problem: Hispanics really DO have lower average IQs than whites or east Asians. It's a fact: a provable scientific, uncomfortable fact, but one that the Left has decided we must all ignore, in favour of their post-reality world, where what they wish to believe becomes the truth. Or post-truth.

http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia

It's almost like low IQ is linked to education, malnutrition and poverty rather than race.

This may amaze you, but psychometricians, the experts who study intelligence for a living in "universities", have already realised that these may be factors. I know. Incredible. They got there before you!

So they have developed "tests" and "methods" that control for these factors, and still find persistent gaps in average racial IQs.

And yet they can't find a link between melanin levels and brain function.

I've never read any study purporting to show a link between race and IQ that had satisfactory control for confounding variables.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Monksfield said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/804389886069534721

Why would the Tories be gloomy, they weren't standing.

The Tories are gloomy because this means the Tory majority goes down to single digits.

With Mrs May's awful people skills, she cannot afford to lose an MP who would vote with her on most matters.

Hence the innocent face.

AndyJS said:

Richmond Park is about as friendly as it gets for the LDs in a by-election situation. If they can't win there, they don't have much of a chance anywhere else.

But you've all been telling us Zac would hold it easily - the term blowout was used.

And that's nonsense. Richmond Park was a decent prospect but nowhere near the best for the yellows.

Alistair said:

nunu said:

SeanT said:

All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

All the lefties soberly agreed about this post-truth Nazi ideology poisoning the system.

Only problem: Hispanics really DO have lower average IQs than whites or east Asians. It's a fact: a provable scientific, uncomfortable fact, but one that the Left has decided we must all ignore, in favour of their post-reality world, where what they wish to believe becomes the truth. Or post-truth.

http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia

It's almost like low IQ is linked to education, malnutrition and poverty rather than race.

You could argue education (or lack thereof), malnutrition and poverty is linked to a low IQ rather than the other way round.

Monksfield said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Monksfield said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/804389886069534721

Why would the Tories be gloomy, they weren't standing.

The Tories are gloomy because this means the Tory majority goes down to single digits.

With Mrs May's awful people skills, she cannot afford to lose an MP who would vote with her on most matters.

Hence the innocent face.

AndyJS said:

Richmond Park is about as friendly as it gets for the LDs in a by-election situation. If they can't win there, they don't have much of a chance anywhere else.

But you've all been telling us Zac would hold it easily - the term blowout was used.

And that's nonsense. Richmond Park was a decent prospect but nowhere near the best for the yellows.

It's probably one of the best seats in the country for the LDs if you remove the influence of personal votes, in terms of the number of people who actually have sympathy with core LD policies.

SeanT said:

Alistair said:

nunu said:

SeanT said:

All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

All the lefties soberly agreed about this post-truth Nazi ideology poisoning the system.

Only problem: Hispanics really DO have lower average IQs than whites or east Asians. It's a fact: a provable scientific, uncomfortable fact, but one that the Left has decided we must all ignore, in favour of their post-reality world, where what they wish to believe becomes the truth. Or post-truth.

http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia

It's almost like low IQ is linked to education, malnutrition and poverty rather than race.

This may amaze you, but psychometricians, the experts who study intelligence for a living in "universities", have already realised that these may be factors. I know. Incredible. They got there before you!

So they have developed "tests" and "methods" that control for these factors, and still find persistent gaps in average racial IQs.

It's a fact that asian americans have to attain better scores than their white and black counterparts to get into Ivy league universities in the USA - they are under-represented on their academic merits.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/education/story/2011-12-03/asian-students-college-applications/51620236/1

Time to start backing Valls

@bbclaurak: Hollande pulling out of presidential race in France - big story

Pulpstar said:

SeanT said:

Alistair said:

nunu said:

SeanT said:

All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

All the lefties soberly agreed about this post-truth Nazi ideology poisoning the system.

Only problem: Hispanics really DO have lower average IQs than whites or east Asians. It's a fact: a provable scientific, uncomfortable fact, but one that the Left has decided we must all ignore, in favour of their post-reality world, where what they wish to believe becomes the truth. Or post-truth.

http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia

It's almost like low IQ is linked to education, malnutrition and poverty rather than race.

This may amaze you, but psychometricians, the experts who study intelligence for a living in "universities", have already realised that these may be factors. I know. Incredible. They got there before you!

So they have developed "tests" and "methods" that control for these factors, and still find persistent gaps in average racial IQs.

It's a fact that asian americans have to attain better scores than their white and black counterparts to get into Ivy league universities in the USA - they are under-represented on their academic merits.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/education/story/2011-12-03/asian-students-college-applications/51620236/1

That sounds like a case of positive discrimination gone bad. Why else would one person from a demographic group be compared only with other members of that group.

MarkSenior said:

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

david_herdson said:

In reality, they'll have driven themselves up a cul-de-sac and provided the Tories with lots of quotes for use in the South West.

If Brexit were on track and the Cabinet had a coherent and united position you might be correct. A flustered Boris Johnson shouting 'take back control' from a lift suggests the Lib Dems are playing it right and it will be downhill for the Tories from now on.

lol.

The Tories are SIXTEEN POINTS AHEAD in the polls, and the Lib Dems are on a mighty 7%.

The Tories were 16 points ahead in ONE poll but cannot replicate that or anywhere near it in any real election

Any update on your own predition for richmond.

SeanT said:

nunu said:

SeanT said:

All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

All the lefties soberly

http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia

I had to use Rense as an admittedly iffy source because this stuff about race and IQ is so sensitive hardly anyone will run it, even though it is accepted science.

Here's a scholarly article on the subject

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301303123_Genetic_and_Environmental_Determinants_of_IQ_in_Black_White_and_Hispanic_Americans_A_Meta-analysis_and_New_Analysis

Now, you can argue that IQ tests are valueless or biased (though liberals are oddly keen to cite them when they want to save some poor dim soul from being executed in US jails), or you can argue that all these differences are environmental (though not many experts would agree: most accept that is some element of heritability)

What you can't do is baldly say there are no differences in observed average IQ between races. Because there ARE.

Children of social class DE men in the UK also have substantially lower IQs than SE class A, substantially lower in the case of professionals like Doctors. Half of doctors have IQs over 130 (the threshold for Mensa) while only 1% of unskilled labourers do.

So in your free speaking world is it OK to point out that the British WWC are substantially below average in IQ, on par with Hispanic and African Americans? Indeed it is quite likely that social class of parents may well explain much of the variation in racial IQ scores.

http://charltonteaching.blogspot.co.uk/2009/02/social-class-and-iq-some-facts-and.html?m=1

There is an interesting paper here that indicates that the major predictor of social mobility is IQ, with no evidence of social discrimination. We may well be a very meritocratic culture and society.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.staff.ncl.ac.uk/daniel.nettle/britishjournalpsychology.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwjav-ya1dPQAhXsK8AKHb4KA3QQFghjMAY&usg=AFQjCNHgol6HNiArbL63lG_e4mrksMi2NQ&sig2=HCzXsLJsJOWw_vR6cjhxOg

RobD said:

Monksfield said:

AndyJS said:

Monksfield said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Monksfield said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/804389886069534721

Why would the Tories be gloomy, they weren't standing.

The Tories are gloomy because this means the Tory majority goes down to single digits.

With Mrs May's awful people skills, she cannot afford to lose an MP who would vote with her on most matters.

Hence the innocent face.

AndyJS said:

Richmond Park is about as friendly as it gets for the LDs in a by-election situation. If they can't win there, they don't have much of a chance anywhere else.

But you've all been telling us Zac would hold it easily - the term blowout was used.

And that's nonsense. Richmond Park was a decent prospect but nowhere near the best for the yellows.

It's probably one of the best seats in the country for the LDs if you remove the influence of personal votes, in terms of the number of people who actually have sympathy with core LD policies.

If we're seeing some sort of a realignment in politics driven by Brexit there are plenty more seats in the SE like this....

Examples?

Twickenham, Surbiton, Lewes, Wealden, Mid Sussex, Guildford, Oxford W....

IanB2 said:

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

It seems to me that if you think the LibDems are going to win, you back them now and wait until a very nice profit drops into your account in about eight hours time and, if you don't, you still back them now and aim to cash out at a profit some time between 9pm and midnight.

But how do you know the Lib Dems will continue to shorten ?

This is a betting site - if any of us knew anything for certain, we wouldn't be here!

Nevertheless they've been shortening all afternoon. Even if the trend doesn't continue, I can't see what could happen that would send it dramatically backwards, so the downside on the bet appears relatively limited.

Now almost at 2.66

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

nunu said:

SeanT said:

All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

All the lefties soberly

http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia

I had to use Rense as an admittedly iffy source because this stuff about race and IQ is so sensitive hardly anyone will run it, even though it is accepted science.

Here's a scholarly article on the subject

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301303123_Genetic_and_Environmental_Determinants_of_IQ_in_Black_White_and_Hispanic_Americans_A_Meta-analysis_and_New_Analysis

Now, you can argue that IQ tests are valueless

What you can't do is baldly say there are no differences in observed average IQ between races. Because there ARE.

Children of social class DE men in the UK also have substantially lower IQs than SE class A, substantially lower in the case of professionals like Doctors. Half of doctors have IQs over 130 (the threshold for Mensa) while only 1% of unskilled labourers do.

So in your free speaking world is it OK to point out that the British WWC are substantially below average in IQ, on par with Hispanic and African Americans? Indeed it is quite likely that social class of parents may well explain much of the variation in racial IQ scores.

http://charltonteaching.blogspot.co.uk/2009/02/social-class-and-iq-some-facts-and.html?m=1

There is an interesting paper here that indicates that the major predictor of social mobility is IQ, with no evidence of social discrimination. We may well be a very meritocratic culture and society.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.staff.ncl.ac.uk/daniel.nettle/britishjournalpsychology.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwjav-ya1dPQAhXsK8AKHb4KA3QQFghjMAY&usg=AFQjCNHgol6HNiArbL63lG_e4mrksMi2NQ&sig2=HCzXsLJsJOWw_vR6cjhxOg

130 is NOT the threshold for Mensa...

According to my first link by a Mensa member it is, but that is peripheral to my point.

TheScreamingEagles said:

@steve_hawkes: Lib Dems are changing up in Richmond - offering to drive commuters to polling booths - "next two hours are vital"

Desperate if true.

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@steve_hawkes: Lib Dems are changing up in Richmond - offering to drive commuters to polling booths - "next two hours are vital"

Desperate if true.

Time for my prediction.

Goldsmith 50
Olney 40

Labour 5

Others 5

AndyJS said:

Richmond Park is about as friendly as it gets for the LDs in a by-election situation. If they can't win there, they don't have much of a chance anywhere else.

That is ludicrous , there are 20 to 40 other seats that the Lib Dems would have a much greater chance than Richmond Park and its 20,000 odd majority

Off-topic #1 : Construction has started on a gloriously tacky project.
http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2016/12/construction-finally-begins-on-chinese-titanic-replica-that-simulates-the-disaster/

Off-topic #2 : The Russians lost another rocket today, another third-stage failure:
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2016/12/01/year-russian-launch-failure/

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@steve_hawkes: Lib Dems are changing up in Richmond - offering to drive commuters to polling booths - "next two hours are vital"

Desperate if true.

Sensible borrowing from US politics, if true. Standard part of the turnout machine for both main parties over there.

SeanT said:

Alistair said:

SeanT said:

Alistair said:

SeanT said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. T, worth noting that IQ is an entirely artificial measure, with the results constantly being reworked so the average stays at 100.

That said, I can well believe there's reticence due to fears of being pointed at and declared unclean. [Same thing happens if you raise Baumeister's view of men having a small central spike in their normal curve (and raised extremities) with women having a larger central spike and lower extremities. Nobody complains if you say men are likelier to be violent, criminal, stupid or suffer learning difficulties than women. But suggest men are likelier than women to be geniuses or good at business, and people will contest it vigorously].

Another example of liberal left post-truthiness is female sexuality.

It is a clear and obvious fact that a lot of women are turned on by the idea of a handsome dominant alpha male who won't take no for an answer: i.e. women have rape fantasies.

Similarly, a lot of women find the idea of sexual submission very erotic, they dream of being tied up, spanked, caned, and so on. Hence the ONE HUNDRED MILLION copies of Fifty Shades of Grey sold around the world. 100,000,000.

Yet, until very recently, this aspect of female sexuality has been unmentionable in polite Guardian-reading circles. It simply doesn't exist. Or if it does it's because, patriarchy, blah blah.

This is your fantasy (the non mentioning of it). It's mentioned and acknowledged all the time. The point being is it is a sexual fantasy.

Where people ' draw the line' is when fuck wits use it as a defence of rapists and sexual abusers.

Which is why I said "until very recently". Fifty Shades broke the dam and now it is accepted, though you will still find lots of Guardianistas who think it should not be discussed.

If you think this is only a recent thing then you are a crazy person and you haven't watched many stand up routines on the subject.

Point me to a comic doing a stand-up routine on female rape fantasies in the period 1990-2010?

First thing I found from Louis CK's 2008 tour

https://youtu.be/b4hNaFkbZYU

Medical schools used to have the lowest IQ students 20 years ago.

On the discussion of IQ, I'm not particularly sure how useful it is at measuring future success any more. As mentioned above it used to correlate quite well to later life achievement, but I'm not sure it will for the current generation of kids. It feels like we're turning into a society of success based on one's identity rather than based on one's ability. Part of the reason Asian immigrant groups place such a high value on education is that we were unable to rely on identity or class advantage to gain access to top jobs. As unintuitive as it seems I think changing that aspect of the workplace with positive discrimination has been bad for immigrant classes, especially Asians where there is less focus on educational achievement than there used to be. I look at my childhood vs the childhood of some young nieces and nephews, the difference is stark. By age three my sister and I were able to read and do basic addition and subtraction. I have two nieces who are 4 and 5 and their parents (my cousin and his wife) are relying on the state to teach them everything and from what I can see it isn't isolated. My sister didn't see anything wrong with it until my mum explained how much of a headstart we both had a primary school and how rubbish the state education sector is at primary level.

As a nation the level of expectations has decreased, not just for WWC boys but for everyone. If we don't challenge this change in behaviour of being happy with "good enough" then I see our relative decline continuing indefinitely.

PAW said:

Medical schools used to have the lowest IQ students 20 years ago.

Evidence? You needed extremely high grades to make it to medicine when I was growing up and planning on a career in medicine 15 years ago.

Hollande has pulled out of the Socialist primary.

PAW said:

Medical schools used to have the lowest IQ students 20 years ago.

On the contrary! my classmates were very bright.

midwinter said:

Monksfield said:

RobD said:

Monksfield said:

AndyJS said:

Monksfield said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Monksfield said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/804389886069534721

Why would the Tories be gloomy, they weren't standing.

The Tories are gloomy because this means the Tory majority goes down to single digits.

With Mrs May's awful people skills, she cannot afford to lose an MP who would vote with her on most matters.

Hence the innocent face.

AndyJS said:

Richmond Park is about as friendly as it gets for the LDs in a by-election situation. If they can't win there, they don't have much of a chance anywhere else.

But you've all been telling us Zac would hold it easily - the term blowout was used.

And that's nonsense. Richmond Park was a decent prospect but nowhere near the best for the yellows.

It's probably one of the best seats in the country for the LDs if you remove the influence of personal votes, in terms of the number of people who actually have sympathy with core LD policies.

If we're seeing some sort of a realignment in politics driven by Brexit there are plenty more seats in the SE like this....

Examples?

Twickenham, Surbiton, Lewes, Wealden, Mid Sussex, Guildford, Oxford W....

I'll give you Twickenham and Kingston as possibles, Lewes at a push. But Wealden and Mid Sussex? Really?

You seem to be working on the assumption that no matter what the Tories do, their voters will follow them. And Isn't that the same mindset you've been excoriating Labour for?

Omnium said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@steve_hawkes: Lib Dems are changing up in Richmond - offering to drive commuters to polling booths - "next two hours are vital"

Desperate if true.

Wouldn't that be illegal? Assuming it isn't then it's a bit underhand. Mind you I imagine that a wise voter for another party can get a free cab ride out of this. The downside of lots of LD chat for the duration of the journey may be too much though.

Zac is uniquely well positioned to lose. I don't think he will though.

Lifts to polling stations - everybody used to do that, regardless of party. I'm surprised that anyone is surprised, let alone thinking it's illegal.

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

nunu said:

SeanT said:

All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

All the lefties soberly

http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia

I ha

What you can't do is baldly say there are no differences in observed average IQ between races. Because there ARE.

http://charltonteaching.blogspot.co.uk/2009/02/social-class-and-iq-some-facts-and.html?m=1

There is an interesting paper here that indicates that the major predictor of social mobility is IQ, with no evidence of social discrimination. We are it seems that may well be a very meritocratic culture and society.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.staff.ncl.ac.uk/daniel.nettle/britishjournalpsychology.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwjav-ya1dPQAhXsK8AKHb4KA3QQFghjMAY&usg=AFQjCNHgol6HNiArbL63lG_e4mrksMi2NQ&sig2=HCzXsLJsJOWw_vR6cjhxOg

Interesting. And yes of course this should be discussed.

And the IQ of the average UK teenager has dropped by six points.

Explains so much...

I am not sure that it does. There is the concept of de-evolution, with intelligent people having lower fertility rates causing horror for over a century. We are saved by regression to the mean, and all those childless geniuses create space for the socially mobile.

One thing I noticed in Australia was how they've been very astute in their immigration policies. They've invited lots of hardworking migrants from high IQ Vietnam, China, Korea, Taiwan, and so on.

On the other hand the influx is quite overwhelming in parts. I predict a successful hard right Australian party will emerge in time, to kick back against this.

When I was in central Sydney in August the place seemed to be mainly populated by Vietnamese people (in western clothes), and I remember thinking I wish London was like this.

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@steve_hawkes: Lib Dems are changing up in Richmond - offering to drive commuters to polling booths - "next two hours are vital"

Desperate if true.

So when Conservatives turn up at South Coast nursing homes to offer lifts to the polls they are being desperate

Toms said:

A PB thought from an old-timer:

It seems to me that IQ is obviously pretty hard to isolate from the culture of its bearer. Even harder to quantify and measure must surely be "common sense". Parading one's IQ strikes me as shallow and even sad. .

I agree, parental culture influences IQ, as well as parental genes, even if it is by a culture of junk food and junk TV.

I see plenty of people squander their potential, while those less bright but better work ethic and ambition prosper in their field. IQ is no substitute for hard work.

David Beckham obviously has both innate ability and also good parenting, but also spent hours practicing after the others went home. The last one is why he reached the top.

MarkSenior said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@steve_hawkes: Lib Dems are changing up in Richmond - offering to drive commuters to polling booths - "next two hours are vital"

Desperate if true.

So when Conservatives turn up at South Coast nursing homes to offer lifts to the polls they are being desperate

Helping those who clearly can't make it to the polling station is one thing...

Taking a short break from knocking up in order to warm up.

Heard from a senior LibDem that the figures of 47 LD, 46 Z, 6 Lab were real and released by mistake. That would explain the puzzle of why publish. But there is an art in converting raw canvass returns into predictions of support. I'm not sure if it is an ambitious figure including probables at 100% (the Shuttleworth) or a cautious figure with probs weighted at say 50%. Must be the former.

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

nunu said:

SeanT said:

All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

All the lefties soberly

http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia

I ha

What you can't do is baldly say there are no differences in observed average IQ between races. Because there ARE.

http://charltonteaching.blogspot.co.uk/2009/02/social-class-and-iq-some-facts-and.html?m=1

There is an interesting paper here that indicates that the major predictor of social mobility is IQ, with no evidence of social discrimination. We are it seems that may well be a very meritocratic culture and society.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.staff.ncl.ac.uk/daniel.nettle/britishjournalpsychology.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwjav-ya1dPQAhXsK8AKHb4KA3QQFghjMAY&usg=AFQjCNHgol6HNiArbL63lG_e4mrksMi2NQ&sig2=HCzXsLJsJOWw_vR6cjhxOg

Interesting. And yes of course this should be discussed.

And the IQ of the average UK teenager has dropped by six points.

Explains so much...

I am not sure that it does. There is the concept of de-evolution, with intelligent people having lower fertility rates causing horror for over a century. We are saved by regression to the mean, and all those childless geniuses create space for the socially mobile.

One thing I noticed in Australia was how they've been very astute in their immigration policies. They've invited lots of hardworking migrants from high IQ Vietnam, China, Korea, Taiwan, and so on.

On the other hand the influx is quite overwhelming in parts. I predict a successful hard right Australian party will emerge in time, to kick back against this.

When I was in central Sydney in August the place seemed to be mainly populated by Vietnamese people (in western clothes), and I remember thinking I wish London was like this.

A lot arrived as refugees, or family reunification didn't they?

PAW said:

Medical schools used to have the lowest IQ students 20 years ago.

One member of my family got into medical school in the 1960s and another this year, so hopefully that IQ thing was just a temporary phenomenon, lol.

Barnesian said:

Taking a short break from knocking up in order to warm up.

Heard from a senior LibDem that the figures of 47 LD, 46 Z, 6 Lab were real and released by mistake. That would explain the puzzle of why publish. But there is an art in converting raw canvass returns into predictions of support. I'm not sure if it is an ambitious figure including probables at 100% (the Shuttleworth) or a cautious figure with probs weighted at say 50%. Must be the former.

The only thing I can take from this, is that you are a LD activist knocking doors in Richmond Park.

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/804409616129888257

Arf

Barnesian said:

Speedy said:

Barnesian said:

Taking a short break from knocking up in order to warm up.

Heard from a senior LibDem that the figures of 47 LD, 46 Z, 6 Lab were real and released by mistake. That would explain the puzzle of why publish. But there is an art in converting raw canvass returns into predictions of support. I'm not sure if it is an ambitious figure including probables at 100% (the Shuttleworth) or a cautious figure with probs weighted at say 50%. Must be the former.

The only thing I can take from this, is that you are a LD activist knocking doors in Richmond Park.

Correct

Have you met "Shippy" yet ?
He's been a big driver of the gains round Derbyshire way recently.

Trump is making a speech that he actually didn't mean his promise to save Carrier !!

That he simply remember it when watching the news last week.

Zac supporters definitely aren't bothering with Twitter..

timmo said:

MarkSenior said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@steve_hawkes: Lib Dems are changing up in Richmond - offering to drive commuters to polling booths - "next two hours are vital"

Desperate if true.

So when Conservatives turn up at South Coast nursing homes to offer lifts to the polls they are being desperate

Lib dems do that all the time in Sutton and not only that they go into care homes with people with demetia and sign them up for postal votes... Nice people

The Conservatives were doing that in Brighton back in the 1970s - nice party you support .

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@steve_hawkes: Lib Dems are changing up in Richmond - offering to drive commuters to polling booths - "next two hours are vital"

Desperate if true.

Time for my prediction.

Goldsmith 50
Olney 40

Labour 5

Others 5

If the Lib Dems do edge this, then hats off to them.

I thought Zak would win pretty easily. 50/40 as you say

I'm using the only poll that has been published as a guide.

There where only 44% on non-Goldsmith voters available for the LD to coalesce behind them, they would still have needed all the other candidates to drop out plus to get a big slice of the Goldsmith vote.

Because the Labour candidate is still there plus a few other independents, and the LD candidate is a plank of wood, I can't see how the LD can win there against a popular MP of a popular government.

They can flood the entire seat with activists, but activists can't vote.

If they win they'll refer to it in the same way as Orpington (1962). I can't quite believe they're doing that well if they're at 7% nationally.

The present odds on a Tory win are 1.5, odds on a L.D. win are 2.75.

So I'll happily bet £20 on a Tory win against anyone who expects a L.D. win.

MikeL said:

Whatever happens in Richmond, I thought canvass returns had been completely discredited on this site many times over the years?

Correct, they're usually rubbish. Although having said that the Tories' prediction in Witney of Con 45, LD 30 turned out to be surprisingly good.

MarkSenior said:

timmo said:

MarkSenior said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@steve_hawkes: Lib Dems are changing up in Richmond - offering to drive commuters to polling booths - "next two hours are vital"

Desperate if true.

So when Conservatives turn up at South Coast nursing homes to offer lifts to the polls they are being desperate

Lib dems do that all the time in Sutton and not only that they go into care homes with people with demetia and sign them up for postal votes... Nice people

The Conservatives were doing that in Brighton back in the 1970s - nice party you support .

You're fighting a losing battle........Simon Hughes end of conversation.

Luckyguy1983 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

One thing I noticed in Australia was how they've been very astute in their immigration policies. They've invited lots of hardworking migrants from high IQ Vietnam, China, Korea, Taiwan, and so on.

On the other hand the influx is quite overwhelming in parts. I predict a successful hard right Australian party will emerge in time, to kick back against this.

But they didn't start off being astute in their immigration policies. They started off being a penal colony for the dregs of society. Surely proving that inherited intelligence being written in genetic tablets of stone is a flawed concept. Give people good food, a healthy environment, and opportunity to better themselves, and they flourish.

Culture is the elephant in the room. If you have a culture that says real men don't work - well, then, you end up with the men not working. If you have a culture saying that God will give you everything, then you get alot of people waiting for God...

If you have a culture thats says study until you drop so that you can become a lawyer and accountant or a doctor... then guess what?

So in 2015 Zac got 34k Libs 11k on a 75% turnout. I'm assuming in a nice area we will get a 50% turnout and Zac will get half the vote he did last time. Lib vote will go up by 4k of lab voters, Zac by 1k of UKIP voters and Zac wins by around 18 to 16. Libs then moan that had labour not stood they would have won.

Zac is no great shakes as his weak mayoral campaign showed, but he will keep some loyal voters due to his 'principles', he is a perfect match for Richmond and unlike Olney is photogenic and will hold some influence.
I believe we live in an age of suspicion, where flooding a constituency with patronising newsletters and lib dem activists will change few minds. People don't like being treated as mugs and I expect many Zac voters will be saying otherwise to the doorknockers. We all know Zac will have access to the Tory polling data, and I wouldn't be surprised if his late arrival to the hustings was a case of 'its in the bag' if you don't get ripped apart by local residents or 2 hours.

Finally the excitable voices on Twitter suggest to me nothing more than misplaced confidence, we saw it all before from the left in 2015. I don't agree with Mike that the Libs have to win nor will victory catapult them back to 2010 levels, Labour own London for the foreseeable future and the Tories rule the rural south. It's hard to see where the Libs fit in.

JosiasJessop said:

A few years back I sat between a couple of experts in artificial intelligence as they argued about *what* intelligence was. Apparently there is no hard and fast definition, and there are probably even multiple types of intelligence.

Given that, making 'artificial' intelligence becomes easier: define it how you want!

On a side note, I've remarked on here that I've noted a distinct correlation between the qualifications someone holds and their practicality; professors tend to be rather impractical in areas outside their immediate field, and doctors slightly more practical.

Surely intelligence is simply the ability to deduce.

I have no idea what will happen later tonight in Richmond but with the full on Lib Dem campaign with reportedly 300 peers and all the high and mighty Lib Dems hitting 30,000 doors and even Bob Geldorf appearance yesterday they had better win as they will never have a better chance in a constituency that is so Lib Dem in it's make up