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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson looks at the US budget crisis and wonders whe
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson looks at the US budget crisis and wonders whether Obama is about to be impeached
At first glance, the lead question seems such an obvious Question To Which The Answer Is No that you’d be forgiven for thinking ‘why’, ‘how’ or even ‘what?!’. In a sensible world, it would be – but then in a sensible world, the US federal government wouldn’t be the best part of a week into shutdown – and political betting is as much as anything an exercise is scenario planning.
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http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/us-politics-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=1315341
No was 1/4, now 1/6, but still value, I think. A default first requires Republicans to hold out for two weeks, then Obama to fail to find a way to honour the debt (shifting money around, platinum coin, just ignoring the debt ceiling or whatever).
The Senate would squish it though, even if the Republicans win control of it by a small margin next year.
In just about another other mature democracy an impasse like this would be resolved by a snap election and a fresh mandate being delivered or refused. The people would decide.
Does congress have the power to dissolve itself ? I'm don't think so, but aren't 100% sure
"If it turns out that President Barack
Obama can made a deal with the most
intransigent, hardline, unreasonable,
totalitarian Mullahs in the world, but
not with Republicans, maybe he's not
the problem" - Jon Stewart
It's the separation of powers which is the problem here. America is highly unusual in having a head of government who is not answerable to the legislature. That the head of government happens to be the head of state as well just compounds the problem.
The last person to be impeached was a Scot. And no run of the mill Scot either.
King Harry the Ninth, the Grand Manager of Scotland, the Great Tyrant and the Uncrowned King of Scotland, here he is:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Dundas,_1st_Viscount_Melville
Tory Dundas ran Scotland, and especially Edinburgh, as his own private fiefdom, at a time when the Westminster government had next to zero say in the home affairs of Scotland.
So Labour back below 40 and Cons back up to 35. Confirms my view about the nonsense of party conference polling. We're back where we started with the Labour lead significantly down from 6 months ago. All the froth about fuel price freeze and smash the Daily Mail having little discernible effect on the electorate.
A bit like Glasgow Rangers / Sevco.
Seems legally fine to me.
And Thanks Mr Herdson – was hoping there would be a thread on the US shutdown.
Either way, that's not the system they have. What they do have is something that looks set for deadlock for some time to come. How long? There lies the key question. Some odds from Ladbrokes (which I hadn't seen when penning my piece):
When will the US Federal shutdown end?
Before the 17th of October 2/5
From the 17th of October to the 31st of October 5/2
November 10/1
December 20/1
January 2014 or later 20/1
As I mention in the piece, the 17 October probably isn't quite as significant as is currently being made out but there's not much wriggle-room. Removing the over-rounds, that implies only a 60:40 chance that it'll all be over before 17/10.
But they are mad.
At the moment the Fed is printing $85bn a month. If I were a fiscal Conservative in the US I would be a lot more concerned about that than Obamacare. Congress has lost control of the Fed and push comes to shove, I see no reason that they cannot decide to print enough money to pay the bills. A default seems vanishingly unlikely but economic damage is looking more of a prospect.
So far the markets have almost completely ignored this nonsense, no doubt to the great frustration of the egos involved. If there comes a point when they don't the response will be sharp and drastic. You would really like to think these were career ending choices that were being made here.
Is there any part of the American political system that a sane country would want to copy?
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret7m
.“@originalneilg: They are putting up the city editor on @bbc5live Is there anyone we havn't seen from the Mail??”<where's wally? #cowars
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret7m
Thanks to the 40k who have signed petition calling on coward Dacre to debate on TV pls RT http://change.org/Dacredebate #wheresDacre
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret10m
at gate 24C all Mails now covered by Indy and FT in freebie bins. Arrived too late to stop one or two from Mail infection #coward
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret1h
Sounds like @mehdirhasan took apart the Mail on #bbcqt How brave is Dacre tho? First sends out deputy then a theatre critic #coward
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret1h
Memo to BA - am on flight to Vienna shortly. Please make sure plenty of dustbins next to Mail freebie bins -
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret1h
“@suedehead42: @mehdirhasan Brilliant performance tonight. Your anti-Daily Mail diatribe was in the @campbellclaret class” <wish I had seen
"The CBS News poll found 44 percent blaming Republicans in Congress, while 35 percent place more blame with President Obama and Congressional Democrats.
While both sides are rated negatively in their handling of budget negotiations, Republicans are even more so: 72 percent disapprove of the way they are handling the debate, compared with 61 percent disapproval for Mr. Obama and Congressional Democrats. And Americans are more apt to say Mr. Obama and Congressional Democrats have greater concern for doing what is best for their families."
http://www.nytimes.com/news/fiscal-crisis/2013/10/03/poll-finds-majority-disapprove-of-shutting-down-government-over-health-law/
So Obama is getting by far the better of the argument but it is a fair bet that that 35% is very highly represented in the gerrymandered seats the Congressional leadership holds.
By the way, does anyone have a link to a fairly simple neutral guide to the Obamacare/Budget row? I feel I ought to have an opinion but don't know enough about it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03c6zxq/Question_Time_03_10_2013/
"As was bringing your "zombie" nonsense out. Get a life."
for one of the most unpleasant posters on here to tell someone to get a life is surely ironic? A pity cos you used to be one of the funniest
The promises governments have made to their peoples are impossible to meet.
The only things to be decided are when and how it will happen.
Two things which might concern them:
1) EdM's privileged background has been given more publicity
2) EdM's traitorous grandfather might get discussed at some point
AB,
"Another day of this drivel and reading the Mail starts to look attractive"
The Mail may be obnoxious, ahead of the rest of the press, but any more of this wall-to-wall whingeing, and I'll buy the Mail for the first time as a protest.
No one has died (apart from Ralph, and that was years ago). Let it go now. Or will Campbell and the rest of the pack only be satisfied with re-education camps for Mail readers?
What relevance has a man spouting C19 solutions to C21 issues ?
Another way of looking at it is that the GOP seems to have not accepted the result of the last election. They keep going like this, they'll like the result of the next one even less.
Sorry about the absence of an early discussion piece. I just, er, forgot about it. The pre-qualifying piece is up early due to Korea's timezone, and there's no tip offered:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/korea-pre-qualifying.html
From what I've read it looks like there might actually be some competition at the sharp end this time.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/70-workers-axed-at-doncaster-pit-1-6109228
As a local MP and former energy minister it should be worthy of comment. Or is it too real world to be worthy of his attention.
he could go for the jugular but is kicking it in to the long grass.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/10/04/us/politics/debt-limit-impasse.html?hp=&
How would such an impeachment go, though? Would both not paying debts and unilaterally increasing the ceiling be illegal, and would that guarantee Obama's defeat or provide a cast-iron defence?
The Mail actions were despicable, and stupid, both journalistically and politically.
Fine. Let Ed have his moment.
Political attacks will have to wait a bit until this dies down and only then focus on energy prices or housing stock or something else extremely boring (to non-PBers).
But there is no space in the American two party system for a sane debate on how to live within one's means. If Obama had an ounce of leadership he'd be giving the same messages that Dave n George are and seek to be eliminating a totally unaffordable deficit.
And he's still crying about it after initially being not that bothered on the day it was or the day after.
Adrian Hilton @Adrian_Hilton
Bit rich of Miliband to demand "long, hard look" at Mail's "culture and practices". Labour's internal workings could do with a bit of a look
(anecdote: I know the site well, my brother and I often used it as a short cut to get from the bus stop at the top of the hill to the sports centre & swimming pool. It doesn’t appear to have changed much in 40 years.)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2442468/Crystal-Palace-rebuild-plans-unveiled.html#comments
Two years ago you were telling us Ed's press enquiry was the biggest thing ever and no-one could run smears or attack anyone ever again. And yet looking at the week just gone it's plus ca change. So as ever you confuse a headline with change, activity with action. So far Ed's changed diddly squat and he's backing out quietly from the current dispute. On Monday we'll all be talking about something else.
That's not EdM's fault of course.
But once someone gets into a pattern of defending the family honour they're liable to take it further than they should.
EdM should have taken a 'judge me by my own actions, by what I did in government, by what I'm doing as Labour leader and by what I've done for my own constituents' line.
The problem there is that EdM's record isn't very impressive - there's being in charge of directing Britain's long term economic planning, there's green taxes and a lack of power stations being built, there's a lot of meaningless crap talked about 'predistribution' and there's a constituency which has been given sod all attention.
Some people would also criticize him for the Labour leadership contest - but I quite admire him for that.
Lets face it EdM's greatest achievement is outmanouevering his brother although its perhaps more accurate to say that DM outmanouevered himself. Which brings us back full circle to the Miliband family and their upbringing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-24391278
Josie Channer owes more than £2,000 in parking and late payment fees to the Borough of Barking and Dagenham, where she also sits as a councillor.Councillor Channer said she thought the charges had been dealt with previously. She also chairs the local authority committee which scrutinises parking.
Is this 'entitlement political culture at work?
But I have to agree with you that Osborne has been all mouth and no trousers on actually cutting our spending. I want to see some actual real cuts and the resultant tax cuts to match please.
Labour reality check: @LordAshcroft in today's @DailyMirror on how Cameron could still wn mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/l…
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/lord-ashcroft-general-election-labour-2337024
"First, the choice of PM. In my latest survey Cameron trounced Miliband when it came to representing the UK, leading a team, and knowing what he wanted to achieve. Most thought Cameron would perform better overall, and one in five Labour voters said that even though they weren’t satisfied with him they would rather see him in the job than Ed Miliband.
Second, the economy. Things are starting to pick up, and my poll found voters now more likely to be optimistic than pessimistic. They trusted Cameron and Osborne to run things more than Miliband and Balls by a huge margin.
Third, Miliband is doing surprisingly little to address the worries people have about his party. Most voters, including two fifths of those who would vote Labour, fear the party would spend and borrow more than the country can afford, and has not learned the right lessons from its time in government.
'I know the nation is still outraged at the Mail but is Ali Campbell the best man for leading the charge.... tweeting again like mad again this morning. I wonder what his motivation might be other than obviously his strong moral compass.'
As pointed out by Guido it must be comical Ali's moral compass.
'“Campbell has been on his high horse all week saying he never briefed against Tony Blair’s ministers – apart from the time he lost his temper with anti-Iraq leftie Clare Short and suggested Gordon Brown was “psychologically flawed”. Those of us with longer memories know this is spin. In May 1997 when he first arrived in Downing Street, Campbell shocked senior civil servants by telling them that two Cabinet ministers “couldn’t keep their trousers on”, that Derry Irvine, the Lord Chancellor, hated Donald Dewar, the Scottish Secretary. Smirking, he said “Nick Brown, was ever the bachelor” – before he was outed as gay. He went on to hint at the Foreign Secretary Robin Cook’s then adulterous affair with his secretary Gaynor Regan. All that was just in the first month he was in Downing Street and before he went on – as Michael Howard famously told him – “bullying and lying his way across our political life”.”
Meanwhile Dave gets off scot-free from a half-baked U25 policy, a cock-up which really needed a kicking
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/10/the-ravelling-and-unravelling-of-the-one-policy-in-david-camerons-speech/
But Prima Donna Ed says it's all about meeeeeee and the job of scrutinising the government gets forgotten.
I wonder if Dave or Lynton is laughing loudest ?
We had a brief glorious respite, a tim-free Indian summer, for a fleeting moment of PB zenlike calm around about the 10,000 post mark. Back to service as normal I'm afraid. :-(
Certainly not a hot topic up here.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Labour-parliamentary-candidate-Kingswood-steps/story-19887684-detail/story.html
But then the whole Republican leadership seems unimpressive, the Presidential contenders being the most visible example.
In such a situation a small number of committed individuals with strong beliefs can have influence beyond their station.
The only way it could happen would be of there was a lot more immigration of younger people, combined with younger people somehow becoming more motivated to vote, or older people less motivated to vote.
"I think the Mail is well placed to talk about the issues of "culture" as invited by Ed. They've just run McBride, personally if I was editor I'd be having a go at Ed's party in smearing his colleagues and opponents."
I know it's difficult to take the party political out of this but I know of no other country where their newspapers are anywhere near corrosive as ours. Single individuals with money having Prime Ministers crawling all over the world to genuflect to them is not healthy for our democracy or our culture.
I think this battle with the Mail is really important. Our values need looking at and while the the arbiters and blockers of anything progressive are always going to be the likes of Dacre and Murdoch it just wont happen
The US is down to the tune of a staggering $16 trillion. ObamaCare will make that figure much worse. Surely the sensible response by a right of centre party is to stop the non-essential spending whilst keeping the military operational? Hell, that's basically what we should be doing *all* of the time.
Shutdowns are great in that rather like our so-called "cuts" here, nobody would notice they were happening if it wasn't for the media saying so. That coverage in itself neatly reminds the public that government spends like a drunken sailor. When you stop doing it then the public are oddly shocked to find that things carry along just as they did beforehand.
In the 1996 shutdown, Republicans controlled both chambers of Congress, so it really was a showdown between Republicans in Congress and a Democrat in the White House. Today with the RINO contingent it is not even clear that real Republicans control the House. But they certainly don't control the Senate. Democrats in Washington are at least two-thirds to blame for this.
"This is about Leveson, the Royal Charter and state regulation of the press. Miliband believes it is for politicians to decide whether papers “reflect the values of the British people”. Read that as whether they reflect his values. He wants to know how papers are “allowed” to print opinion that he disagrees with, that he finds offensive. That last line, “we need to have proper standards of decency in our press”, is chilling. It shows an incredible mindset from Miliband that he feels it is a politician’s place to decide what constitutes “decency” in the media. As Fraser Nelson notes, next week the Privy Council meets to discuss newspapers’ attempt to prevent state regulation of the press. Hugh Grant and Hacked Off have already tried to hijack the story. Miliband’s timing is no coincidence…"
Healthcare in the USA is quite obscenely inefficient. They spend as much as us in % terms on public health - and then the same again privately. HMOs can't compete across state borders, they don't buy genric drugs but brand names, the clinical liability laws mean that the cost of superfluous tests and procedures and medical personnel insurance is OTT. The whole design of the system is a costly and wasteful monster. They need even more than we do to wipe it away and bring in a fully free market in health services. Whether that is paid for out of tax or through a free market in insurance or subsidy is a political debate. But the costs of service that any funding model must satisfy is just outrageous. 1 dollar in 6 of the US economy is spent in healthcare. That needs root and branch reform. The AFA just makes it worse.
"Stephen Moss’s report from the opening day of the conference helps to put the row about the Daily Mail and Ralph Miliband into context. The paper and its Editor are being targeted by the Left, as another round of Leveson looms, for sacking and censorship: a headline about hate has put it in the dock, charged with being an organ of hate. But where is the hate from the right – which, after all, has been roughly the same size electorally as the right since the war and before, if one tots up the totals at each general election? Where are the demonstrators wearing “Kill Labour scum” T-shirts outside that party’s conferences each year?" http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2013/10/the-hate-of-the-left.html
We have a similar situation here and both sides of the border are obligated under EU law to enforce adequate and efficient passport/customs controls either side of a two member state but Schengen/non-Schengen border.
So without that EU opt-out there would need to be at least visible border controls. Quite how fluid you made them in practice would be a goodwill thing and I would suggest that the goodwill would exist to make them little more than a token gesture.
How about a few memory joggers ( you've complained about some of these yourself ) Italy ( Berlusconi ), Fox news USA ( Murdoch ), Australia ( Murdoch and Fairfax ), Germany Bildzeitung ( Springer ).
Or would you rather have it the other way round where just about anywhere with an authoritarian government has the Prime Minister telling the papers what to print ?
Meanwhile, the only short term story that matters is one from April 2015 onwards. It's the long term that matters with any story at the moment and the long term effect of this story, (if there is any), is that those who don't follow politics closely may have the faint recollection when they are in the voting booth of Miliband being a marxist and Miliband being a victim. Neither are traits many want in their PM.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24339309
"If only someone would pick this up and run with it."
LOL!!!
What you mean is that you want the media to reflect *your* values. Given your stated belief about women in the workplace, it's a blooming good job they don't.
Although you'll probably find more takers for your view in the Mail than the Guardian ...
The current fight is nothing to do with the deficit. The main Republican demand is to postpone the individual mandate. Since insurance companies would still have to accept people with pre-existing conditions, people would wait until they got sick before buying health insurance.
Boehner blinked and agreed to allow some painful tax increases which hurt the Republicans politically. He invested a lot of personal capital in getting that through. And then he got screwed. Absolutely f*cked over by the Democrats - there were supposed to be spending cuts (which had been agreed in principle) but the Dems just refused to implement them. They thought they had "won" and there was nothing the GOP could do.
Now it comes to this time round. Boehner couldn't stop this rather silly attachment device the GOP nutters wanted to use because he has little crediblity inside his party. And he has no incentive to do a deal with the Democrats because he can't trust them to keep their promises.
That's the fundamental flaw with the modern "professionalisation" of politics: clever Enarques and PPEists and Kennedy Scholars all think that a short term tactical win is great and all that matters. And that's fine. Until you reach the point where no compromise can be implemented because you have a reputation for not delivering. I wonder whether we can see the same trend developing in the UK (think HoL reform, boundary reform, Syria). I hope not - but perhaps where the US goes we follow.
Tactically it would have been a good idea to make this fight about spending cuts, but the Republicans didn't, probably because they stumbled into the shutdown while trying to flee from their infuriated base rather than setting it up as part of a coordinated strategy.
'Josie Channer owes more than £2,000 in parking and late payment fees to the Borough of Barking and Dagenham, where she also sits as a councillor.Councillor Channer said she thought the charges had been dealt with previously. She also chairs the local authority committee which scrutinises parking.
Is this 'entitlement political culture at work?'
Above the law & parking charges just for plebs?
" The BBC is certainly doing its best, and is treating his spat with the Daily Mail as if it were a national emergency. The debate about press regulation is impossible to understand in Britain without considering the BBC’s interests. It loathes Sky, and was keen to stop Rupert Murdoch’s attempt to buy the broadcaster outright. Murdoch’s News Corporation had a $12 billion cash pile, and it fancied putting rocket boosters under Sky. Mark Thompson, then head of the BBC, signed a letter begging the government to stop Murdoch. The BBC broke its own rules and became an actor in the drama. Even worse, it never admitted the fact.
Like a medieval army that believes it has to keep conquering or face defeat, the state-funded BBC has started to occupy new terrain and is now a hegemon in providing the printed word. More people get their news from the 18-year-old BBC website than from any newspaper, unfair competition which is crushing not just local newspapers but national ones, too ... Mr Grayling’s Bill of Rights should incorporate a clause about freedom of speech and the press, ideally giving Britons the same protection as afforded to Americans by their First Amendment to the Constitution. It would help judges such as Lord Justice Leveson to understand the importance and definition of a free press.> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/leveson-inquiry/10353230/Press-freedom-and-fairness-should-be-enshrined-in-a-British-Bill-of-Rights.html
Is there no end to their trickery?
It's all about the publicity. That veterans block had a happy ending though, which isn't in the BBC report. A Republican congressman distracted the Park Police whilst the veterans got over the barriers and re-took their memorial.
Osborne is cutting the deficit faster than any Labour chancellor in history isn't he?
Party hacks always get trapped in their own contradictions.
Much easier to dislike all of them.