Barnesian said:

On topic: Having canvassed over a hundred households face to face (and more on the phone) I'm sticking with my estimate that the chance of a LibDem victory is about 33% (2/1 against or 3s on Betfair). About the same chance as Trump had. Sarah probably won't win but it is entirely possible she will.

My reading is that the tactical vote from Lab and Green is solid - which halves the 23,000 majority. The key is how many Tory voters will switch to LibDem (some definitely will because of Brexit - no idea how many) and how many Tories will sit this one out and not vote (an unnecessary by-election, only vote Tory etc). I just don't know. I doubt anyone does.

I believe that voters who want change have more energy to vote than those who are content with the status quo. (Some evidence: EU ref, Trump, Obama).

Brexit is now the status quo -"a done deal". Not much energy to go out to defend it. But lots of energy by Remainers to oppose it.

bigjohnowls said:

nunu said:

SandyRentool said:

Advance notice: On Friday evening there is a meeting of Leeds Central CLP GC. Let's see if the new masters raise the issue of deselection. McDonnell is egging them on...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38044763

If they deselect Hilary Benn that would be clearest signal yet, Labour are finished. What shits.

If Labour are finished it is due to the likes of Hilary Benn whose only association with the WWC is when he sends them to their deaths by supporting another war.

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

It is. But there is a balance. Having lower CT than almost every single one of our competitors has not led to higher wages or increased R&D spend.

We are also in the process of cutting services and incomes for the lowest paid and the JAMs. Who needs more attention now? Them or those who use CT cuts to increase dividends and to boost boardroom salaries?

Salaries are paid pre-tax, so the rate of corporation tax isn't terribly relevant to their level, whether it be the salaries of workers or the board. Yes, cutting CT allows increased dividends to be paid, which is the entire idea. If you want to attract and encourage investment, reducing taxes on it is a good idea. That way the investment is attracted here rather than eleswhere.

Meanwhile the lowest paid are being given a stonking payrise, thanks to a Conservative Chancellor. It is, as you rightly say, a balance, and as the results show Osborne balanced it well. We'll see on Wednesday what Phillip Hammond does, but he hasn't got much room for manoeuvre to do things very differently.

The lowest paid are actually seeing their incomes cut significantly, along with the services they rely on.

Salaries are paid pre-tax, they are set post-tax.

The lowest paid just got a huge pay rise and are set for more until 2019. If someone chooses to work part time and sees their income go down to to tax credit withdrawal they have no one to blame but themselves.

Yes, if someone "chooses" to work part-time you might have a point. How many do?

Quite a lot. I have the report, give me a minute.

Edit: 86.5% have chosen part time work. 13.5% who are working part time want to work full time. Out of 8.5m part time workers.

In other words, around a million people who want to work full-time can't. That's a lot of people.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

Pulpstar said:

Why does May keep running these ideas that simply seem to fall over after a while. There's not even any particular ideological bias/kite flying direction (Grammar schools right, workers on boards, left) to them.

Because she is a very poor PM who is completely out of her depth.

bullshit. She has been only in office a month or two.. I'll bet you wouldn't have been saying that after (YOUR.. not my ) sainted Blair nearly had to go over the Ecclestone affair.

Your mindset now seems that because there really is nothing left to bitch about Corbyn, the only thing you can bitch about is the Govt and especially Mrs May.Its very boring and you are in danger of being repetitive..

She needs time as all new PM's do. They grow into the job.

I tend to read PB from bottom to top, so quite often read most of a post before seeing the author. It's fascinating how often you can predict the author from tone and defensiveness, and who is the subject of their defensiveness.

A 'month or two', or even four.

It seems a lot longer than four months for we Cameroons.

bigjohnowls said:

nunu said:

SandyRentool said:

Advance notice: On Friday evening there is a meeting of Leeds Central CLP GC. Let's see if the new masters raise the issue of deselection. McDonnell is egging them on...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38044763

If they deselect Hilary Benn that would be clearest signal yet, Labour are finished. What shits.

If Labour are finished it is due to the likes of Hilary Benn whose only association with the WWC is when he sends them to their deaths by supporting another war.

GeoffM said:

SouthamObserver said:

One for the fantasists who believe the UK has a negotiating position with the EU member states over defence:
twitter.com/kennycarwash/status/800648765963169792

You're seriously quoting commentary on Royal Navy capabilities from someone with the twitter handle @kennycarwash?

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

It is. But there is a balance. Having lower CT than almost every single one of our competitors has not led to higher wages or increased R&D spend.

We are also in the process of cutting services and incomes for the lowest paid and the JAMs. Who needs more attention now? Them or those who use CT cuts to increase dividends and to boost boardroom salaries?

Salaries are paid pre-tax, so the rate of corporation tax isn't terribly relevant to their level, whether it be the salaries of workers or the board. Yes, cutting CT allows increased dividends to be paid, which is the entire idea. If you want to attract and encourage investment, reducing taxes on it is a good idea. That way the investment is attracted here rather than eleswhere.

Meanwhile the lowest paid are being given a stonking payrise, thanks to a Conservative Chancellor. It is, as you rightly say, a balance, and as the results show Osborne balanced it well. We'll see on Wednesday what Phillip Hammond does, but he hasn't got much room for manoeuvre to do things very differently.

The lowest paid are actually seeing their incomes cut significantly, along with the services they rely on.

Salaries are paid pre-tax, they are set post-tax.

The lowest paid just got a huge pay rise and are set for more until 2019. If someone chooses to work part time and sees their income go down to to tax credit withdrawal they have no one to blame but themselves.

Yes, if someone "chooses" to work part-time you might have a point. How many do?

Quite a lot. I have the report, give me a minute.

Edit: 86.5% have chosen part time work. 13.5% who are working part time want to work full time. Out of 8.5m part time workers.

In other words, around a million people who want to work full-time can't. That's a lot of people.

And they have even more incentive to take on more hours if wages continue rising. The majority of complaints come from the 6.5m who have chosen part time work and do exactly 16h to receive the maximum possible tax credits and benefits. I'd venture that the million or so who want to work full time probably don't stick to the hard 16h limit for tax credits.

nunu said:

SandyRentool said:

Advance notice: On Friday evening there is a meeting of Leeds Central CLP GC. Let's see if the new masters raise the issue of deselection. McDonnell is egging them on...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38044763

If they deselect Hilary Benn that would be clearest signal yet, Labour are finished. What shits.

Patrick said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

The lowest paid are actually seeing their incomes cut significantly, along with the services they rely on.

Salaries are paid pre-tax, they are set post-tax.

We were talking about the effect of corporation tax rates on salaries. As I correctly pointed out, the wages of the lowest-paid are increasing substantially at the same time that corporation tax is being slightly reduced.

Now you seem to be switching to talking about benefits and public services. That's a different point altogether, even if it were true.

Nope, it's all inter-related. If you cut CT you have to make up the difference elsewhere by cutting public spending in one way or another.

Erm....no. If you reduce one flow of cash out of a company (CT) then that cash remains in the company. When it then leaves to go to staff, shareholders or bondholders you tax the cashflow transaction. A zero CT rate wouldn't imply a reduction in tax take - it would just be coming in as a different tax.

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

nunu said:

SandyRentool said:

Advance notice: On Friday evening there is a meeting of Leeds Central CLP GC. Let's see if the new masters raise the issue of deselection. McDonnell is egging them on...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38044763

If they deselect Hilary Benn that would be clearest signal yet, Labour are finished. What shits.

If Labour are finished it is due to the likes of Hilary Benn whose only association with the WWC is when he sends them to their deaths by supporting another war.

Nope. It's because you (and others) say this sort of shit.

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

nunu said:

SandyRentool said:

Advance notice: On Friday evening there is a meeting of Leeds Central CLP GC. Let's see if the new masters raise the issue of deselection. McDonnell is egging them on...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38044763

If they deselect Hilary Benn that would be clearest signal yet, Labour are finished. What shits.

If Labour are finished it is due to the likes of Hilary Benn whose only association with the WWC is when he sends them to their deaths by supporting another war.

Nope. It's because you (and others) say this sort of shit.

I love the smell of red-on-red in the morning. It smells like....victory.....

GeoffM said:

SouthamObserver said:

GeoffM said:

SouthamObserver said:

GeoffM said:

SouthamObserver said:

One for the fantasists who believe the UK has a negotiating position with the EU member states over defence:
twitter.com/kennycarwash/status/800648765963169792

You're seriously quoting commentary on Royal Navy capabilities from someone with the twitter handle @kennycarwash?

Nope.

That's a bit of luck, because by pasting that tweet with a supporting comment it certainly looked to the naked eye like you were. Which would have made you an idiot. Thank Heavens it isn't so.

I am sorry that the depleted nature of our armed forces does not suit your arguments about the UK having the EU over a barrel on defence. But there you go. We are where we are.

I didn't know that I was arguing any such point or from any particular direction, so ta muchly for letting me know.

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The hours need to be available.

I'm sure they will be, especially in a growing economy benefiting from higher wages and spending. It's odd that I'm having to argue the virtuous pay circle with a leftist, but the EU referendum has made for strange bedfellows. One of your lefty remain lot was calling higher wages an economic cost for business rather than an economic gain for workers recently. How times change.

Mortimer said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

It is. But there is a balance. Having lower CT than almost every single one of our competitors has not led to higher wages or increased R&D spend.

We are also in the process of cutting services and incomes for the lowest paid and the JAMs. Who needs more attention now? Them or those who use CT cuts to increase dividends and to boost boardroom salaries?

Salaries are paid pre-tax, so the rate of corporation tax isn't terribly relevant to their level, whether it be the salaries of workers or the board. Yes, cutting CT allows increased dividends to be paid, which is the entire idea. If you want to attract and encourage investment, reducing taxes on it is a good idea. That way the investment is attracted here rather than eleswhere.

Meanwhile the lowest paid are being given a stonking payrise, thanks to a Conservative Chancellor. It is, as you rightly say, a balance, and as the results show Osborne balanced it well. We'll see on Wednesday what Phillip Hammond does, but he hasn't got much room for manoeuvre to do things very differently.

The lowest paid are actually seeing their incomes cut significantly, along with the services they rely on.

Salaries are paid pre-tax, they are set post-tax.

The lowest paid just got a huge pay rise and are set for more until 2019. If someone chooses to work part time and sees their income go down to to tax credit withdrawal they have no one to blame but themselves.

This. But that doesn't fit with SO's oft posted chart....

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The hours need to be available.

I'm sure they will be, especially in a growing economy benefiting from higher wages and spending. It's odd that I'm having to argue the virtuous pay circle with a leftist, but the EU referendum has made for strange bedfellows. One of your lefty remain lot was calling higher wages an economic cost for business rather than an economic gain for workers recently. How times change.

The economy has been growing for a while now. It has not yet fed through to higher wages in any meaningful way. Now we are at just about full employment, let's hope that it begins to. Of course, with inflation set to rise it is going to become an even bigger issue. Much will depend on the kind of Brexit deal we end up with.

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The hours need to be available.

I'm sure they will be, especially in a growing economy benefiting from higher wages and spending. It's odd that I'm having to argue the virtuous pay circle with a leftist, but the EU referendum has made for strange bedfellows. One of your lefty remain lot was calling higher wages an economic cost for business rather than an economic gain for workers recently. How times change.

The economy has been growing for a while now. It has not yet fed through to higher wages in any meaningful way. Now we are at just about full employment, let's hope that it begins to. Of course, with inflation set to rise it is going to become an even bigger issue. Much will depend on the kind of Brexit deal we end up with.

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The hours need to be available.

I'm sure they will be, especially in a growing economy benefiting from higher wages and spending. It's odd that I'm having to argue the virtuous pay circle with a leftist, but the EU referendum has made for strange bedfellows. One of your lefty remain lot was calling higher wages an economic cost for business rather than an economic gain for workers recently. How times change.

The economy has been growing for a while now. It has not yet fed through to higher wages in any meaningful way. Now we are at just about full employment, let's hope that it begins to. Of course, with inflation set to rise it is going to become an even bigger issue. Much will depend on the kind of Brexit deal we end up with.

Which is why wage rises for the bottom are being forced though by the state. I think £12.50, elimination of employer's NI, lowering corporation tax to 12.5% for small companies and 15% for large companies along with ending all in working benefits and tax credits is the direction we should take. A one of resettlement between businesses, workers and the government. Overall no one really wins or loses but workers will be in control of their own income rather than being reliant on the generosity of the state.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The hours need to be available.

I'm sure they will be, especially in a growing economy benefiting from higher wages and spending. It's odd that I'm having to argue the virtuous pay circle with a leftist, but the EU referendum has made for strange bedfellows. One of your lefty remain lot was calling higher wages an economic cost for business rather than an economic gain for workers recently. How times change.

The economy has been growing for a while now. It has not yet fed through to higher wages in any meaningful way. Now we are at just about full employment, let's hope that it begins to. Of course, with inflation set to rise it is going to become an even bigger issue. Much will depend on the kind of Brexit deal we end up with.

Wage stagflation has been the norm for 2 decades. Brexit is simply one of the consequences.

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The hours need to be available.

I'm sure they will be, especially in a growing economy benefiting from higher wages and spending. It's odd that I'm having to argue the virtuous pay circle with a leftist, but the EU referendum has made for strange bedfellows. One of your lefty remain lot was calling higher wages an economic cost for business rather than an economic gain for workers recently. How times change.

The economy has been growing for a while now. It has not yet fed through to higher wages in any meaningful way. Now we are at just about full employment, let's hope that it begins to. Of course, with inflation set to rise it is going to become an even bigger issue. Much will depend on the kind of Brexit deal we end up with.

Which is why wage rises for the bottom are being forced though by the state. I think £12.50, elimination of employer's NI, lowering corporation tax to 12.5% for small companies and 15% for large companies along with ending all in working benefits and tax credits is the direction we should take. A one of resettlement between businesses, workers and the government. Overall no one really wins or loses but workers will be in control of their own income rather than being reliant on the generosity of the state.

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

No, the facts are a tad problematic for those who insist that the lowest paid have done well out of the last six years.

Not at all. Quite apart from anything else, you seem to have totally forgotten the 5 million unemployed figure which the left warned about, or hoped for, as Osborne took measures to reduce the completely unsustainable deficit he inherited.

As you rightly said earlier, it's all about balance. What balance would you have preferred? Would you have preferred higher unemployment, with higher benefits and perhaps with higher wages for those low-paid workers lucky enough to keep their jobs?

Patrick said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The hours need to be available.

I'm sure they will be, especially in a growing economy benefiting from higher wages and spending. It's odd that I'm having to argue the virtuous pay circle with a leftist, but the EU referendum has made for strange bedfellows. One of your lefty remain lot was calling higher wages an economic cost for business rather than an economic gain for workers recently. How times change.

The economy has been growing for a while now. It has not yet fed through to higher wages in any meaningful way. Now we are at just about full employment, let's hope that it begins to. Of course, with inflation set to rise it is going to become an even bigger issue. Much will depend on the kind of Brexit deal we end up with.

Wage stagflation has been the norm for 2 decades. Brexit is simply one of the consequences.

Phenomena I am sure have nothing whatever to do with free migration. Ahem.

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The hours need to be available.

I'm sure they will be, especially in a growing economy benefiting from higher wages and spending. It's odd that I'm having to argue the virtuous pay circle with a leftist, but the EU referendum has made for strange bedfellows. One of your lefty remain lot was calling higher wages an economic cost for business rather than an economic gain for workers recently. How times change.

The economy has been growing for a while now. It has not yet fed through to higher wages in any meaningful way. Now we are at just about full employment, let's hope that it begins to. Of course, with inflation set to rise it is going to become an even bigger issue. Much will depend on the kind of Brexit deal we end up with.

Which is why wage rises for the bottom are being forced though by the state. I think £12.50, elimination of employer's NI, lowering corporation tax to 12.5% for small companies and 15% for large companies along with ending all in working benefits and tax credits is the direction we should take. A one of resettlement between businesses, workers and the government. Overall no one really wins or loses but workers will be in control of their own income rather than being reliant on the generosity of the state.

Something needs to happen:

http://policyinpractice.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/OP-NOTE-Cumulative-impact-of-Welfare-Reforms-to-2020-Policy-in-Practice-1.pdf

If tax rates are cut, along with public spending and there is not a significant rise in salaries, then many millions of people will lose out.

Which is why the government are forcing through inflation busting pay rises up to £9/h. I just think they have a lot more headroom.

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The hours need to be available.

I'm sure they will be, especially in a growing economy benefiting from higher wages and spending. It's odd that I'm having to argue the virtuous pay circle with a leftist, but the EU referendum has made for strange bedfellows. One of your lefty remain lot was calling higher wages an economic cost for business rather than an economic gain for workers recently. How times change.

The economy has been growing for a while now. It has not yet fed through to higher wages in any meaningful way. Now we are at just about full employment, let's hope that it begins to. Of course, with inflation set to rise it is going to become an even bigger issue. Much will depend on the kind of Brexit deal we end up with.

Which is why wage rises for the bottom are being forced though by the state. I think £12.50, elimination of employer's NI, lowering corporation tax to 12.5% for small companies and 15% for large companies along with ending all in working benefits and tax credits is the direction we should take. A one of resettlement between businesses, workers and the government. Overall no one really wins or loses but workers will be in control of their own income rather than being reliant on the generosity of the state.

Something needs to happen:

http://policyinpractice.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/OP-NOTE-Cumulative-impact-of-Welfare-Reforms-to-2020-Policy-in-Practice-1.pdf

If tax rates are cut, along with public spending and there is not a significant rise in salaries, then many millions of people will lose out.

Which is why the government are forcing through inflation busting pay rises up to £9/h. I just think they have a lot more headroom.

Even with that rise, the overall effect is negative - and not just for those on the lowest incomes. Further tax and spending cuts will only exacerbate the situation.

rcs1000 said:

Patrick said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The hours need to be available.

I'm sure they will be, especially in a growing economy benefiting from higher wages and spending. It's odd that I'm having to argue the virtuous pay circle with a leftist, but the EU referendum has made for strange bedfellows. One of your lefty remain lot was calling higher wages an economic cost for business rather than an economic gain for workers recently. How times change.

The economy has been growing for a while now. It has not yet fed through to higher wages in any meaningful way. Now we are at just about full employment, let's hope that it begins to. Of course, with inflation set to rise it is going to become an even bigger issue. Much will depend on the kind of Brexit deal we end up with.

Wage stagflation has been the norm for 2 decades. Brexit is simply one of the consequences.

Phenomena I am sure have nothing whatever to do with free migration. Ahem.

Although you then have to deal with the fact that has been wage stagnation in almost every developed world country*, irrespective of migration levels, which tells you that it can't be the whole story.

Except Germany, Canada and Australia - the latter two of which were big beneficiaries of the 15 year commodity boom to 2015.

Theuniondivvie said:

Moses_ said:

More end of the world news.....

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2228104/facebook-to-open-new-london-headquarters-in-2017-creating-500-jobs-and-increasing-uk-workforce-to-1500/

Is that the sixth or the seventh time that a PB Brexiteer has mentioned this?
The nation rejoices as employment & resources black spot gets much needed good news.

bigjohnowls said:

nunu said:

SandyRentool said:

Advance notice: On Friday evening there is a meeting of Leeds Central CLP GC. Let's see if the new masters raise the issue of deselection. McDonnell is egging them on...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38044763

If they deselect Hilary Benn that would be clearest signal yet, Labour are finished. What shits.

If Labour are finished it is due to the likes of Hilary Benn whose only association with the WWC is when he sends them to their deaths by supporting another war.

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

nunu said:

SandyRentool said:

Advance notice: On Friday evening there is a meeting of Leeds Central CLP GC. Let's see if the new masters raise the issue of deselection. McDonnell is egging them on...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38044763

If they deselect Hilary Benn that would be clearest signal yet, Labour are finished. What shits.

If Labour are finished it is due to the likes of Hilary Benn whose only association with the WWC is when he sends them to their deaths by supporting another war.

Nope. It's because you (and others) say this sort of shit.

I love the smell of red-on-red in the morning. It smells like....victory.....

Yep, the right owns it all. Now it's time to deliver on the promises.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

taffys said:

''Catwoman on the Daily Politics earlier failed to endorse the Socialist candidate for the French presidency. Does that merit deselection? ''

Am I correct in saying France's electors effectively face the choice of an EU destroying nationalist or a thatcherite.

Rather delicious, really.

Which is why Macron might still make it through.

I'm writing a book on the French election.

50 shades of red.

Do you have the betfair midprices, I'm at work. Only if Fillon has shifted from ~1.7

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

taffys said:

''Catwoman on the Daily Politics earlier failed to endorse the Socialist candidate for the French presidency. Does that merit deselection? ''

Am I correct in saying France's electors effectively face the choice of an EU destroying nationalist or a thatcherite.

Rather delicious, really.

Which is why Macron might still make it through.

I'm writing a book on the French election.

50 shades of red.

Do you have the betfair midprices, I'm at work. Only if Fillon has shifted from ~1.7

He is 1.85/1.93 right now.

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

nunu said:

SandyRentool said:

Advance notice: On Friday evening there is a meeting of Leeds Central CLP GC. Let's see if the new masters raise the issue of deselection. McDonnell is egging them on...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38044763

If they deselect Hilary Benn that would be clearest signal yet, Labour are finished. What shits.

If Labour are finished it is due to the likes of Hilary Benn whose only association with the WWC is when he sends them to their deaths by supporting another war.

Nope. It's because you (and others) say this sort of shit.

I love the smell of red-on-red in the morning. It smells like....victory.....

Yep, the right owns it all. Now it's time to deliver on the promises.

Yep. But if we don't - what is Labour going to do about it?

No doubt you will delight at Labour's woes. But be careful what you wish for. I suspect your joy will be short lived if Labour does not recover. You will dislike what replaces it even more.

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

taffys said:

''Catwoman on the Daily Politics earlier failed to endorse the Socialist candidate for the French presidency. Does that merit deselection? ''

Am I correct in saying France's electors effectively face the choice of an EU destroying nationalist or a thatcherite.

Rather delicious, really.

Which is why Macron might still make it through.

I'm writing a book on the French election.

50 shades of red.

Do you have the betfair midprices, I'm at work. Only if Fillon has shifted from ~1.7

He is 1.85/1.93 right now.

He's drifted. Is Juppé in or Le Pen?

Juppe 9.6/10
Le Pen 3.75/3.8

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

nunu said:

SandyRentool said:

Advance notice: On Friday evening there is a meeting of Leeds Central CLP GC. Let's see if the new masters raise the issue of deselection. McDonnell is egging them on...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38044763

If they deselect Hilary Benn that would be clearest signal yet, Labour are finished. What shits.

If Labour are finished it is due to the likes of Hilary Benn whose only association with the WWC is when he sends them to their deaths by supporting another war.

Nope. It's because you (and others) say this sort of shit.

I love the smell of red-on-red in the morning. It smells like....victory.....

Yep, the right owns it all. Now it's time to deliver on the promises.

Yep. But if we don't - what is Labour going to do about it?

No doubt you will delight at Labour's woes. But be careful what you wish for. I suspect your joy will be short lived if Labour does not recover. You will dislike what replaces it even more.

I am truly bemused as to what will replace Labour.

taffys said:

''Where does she get the time to argue politics when he's expecting his dinner ready ? ''

Imagine that harridan at dinner parties, killing the conversation with a wild and dangerous opinion of her own...

FF43 said:

Alanbrooke said:

taffys said:

''Wage stagflation has been the norm for 2 decades. Brexit is simply one of the consequences. ''

I think Mr SO is wrestling with what amounts to a one off global event. The fact is that 2bn people have effectively entered the global capitalist economy since 1989, greatly increasing the supply of very cheap unskilled (and in some cases skilled) workers.

With the best will in the world, that was always going to depress wages.

There is evidence that the slack is starting to run out.

Some evidence to that effect but there are still 2bn more people available. The issue is more why western governments have done little ease the transition but instead like Blair Brown and Cameron adopted corporatist policies which made the transition even harder.

Disagree with this. Blair, Brown and Cameron ignored the plight of those left behind by globalisation, but didn't make the transition harder. Brexit makes it harder. A lot harder.

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

nunu said:

SandyRentool said:

Advance notice: On Friday evening there is a meeting of Leeds Central CLP GC. Let's see if the new masters raise the issue of deselection. McDonnell is egging them on...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38044763

If they deselect Hilary Benn that would be clearest signal yet, Labour are finished. What shits.

If Labour are finished it is due to the likes of Hilary Benn whose only association with the WWC is when he sends them to their deaths by supporting another war.

Nope. It's because you (and others) say this sort of shit.

I love the smell of red-on-red in the morning. It smells like....victory.....

Yep, the right owns it all. Now it's time to deliver on the promises.

Yep. But if we don't - what is Labour going to do about it?

No doubt you will delight at Labour's woes. But be careful what you wish for. I suspect your joy will be short lived if Labour does not recover. You will dislike what replaces it even more.

I am truly bemused as to what will replace Labour.

taffys said:

''Where does she get the time to argue politics when he's expecting his dinner ready ? ''

Imagine that harridan at dinner parties, killing the conversation with a wild and dangerous opinion of her own...

williamglenn said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/800683485719445504

Blimey. I could have written that in 10 minutes. It's a string of truisms and some rather patronising wishful thinking about the noob needing guidance from an old friend. Maybe things were better when MI6 was run by the KGB.

The British establishment won't endear themselves by treating Trump as an orangutan who needs their help to be accepted in polite company.