politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fillon heads for victory and looks set to be the one who’ll fi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fillon heads for victory and looks set to be the one who’ll fight Marine le Pen to be next French President
Francois Fillon – the ex-French PM who looks set to fight the the Presidency next April against Marine le Pen pic.twitter.com/azIqkK14Im
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Glorious first!0
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Right vs. far right? Poor lefties...
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3rd, like Sarkozy0
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I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/8004482759586037760 -
What happened to Macron?0
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0
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I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary0
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An early election is probably not on the cards then.TheScreamingEagles said:Huzzah, Hammond is continuity Osborne.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/8004545046469345280 -
He's only seen the BBC series.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/800448275958603776
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Long story short:
After he led the first Brexit for his King, he has his head chopped off due to providing the King with an ugly wife.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/800448275958603776
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Poor Monsieur Fish has sunk to the bottom.0
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Watching the Cromwell documentary on BBC4?Speedy said:
Long story short:
After he led the first Brexit for his King, he has his head chopped off due to providing the King with an ugly wife.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/8004482759586037760 -
That might be the point he is making.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/8004482759586037760 -
He would have preferred to face Sarkozy.DecrepitJohnL said:What happened to Macron?
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Punishment Budget incoming....?TheScreamingEagles said:Huzzah, Hammond is continuity Osborne.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/800454504646934528
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No.Mortimer said:
Watching the Cromwell documentary on BBC4?Speedy said:
Long story short:
After he led the first Brexit for his King, he has his head chopped off due to providing the King with an ugly wife.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/800448275958603776
I made an educated guess based on what I remember of renaissance history.
Thankfully for Bannon, Melania is a beautiful wife for Trump.0 -
Hmm, my book has taken a bashing, I think this will right itself in the end, but we shall see.0
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TBH I am getting sick of opinion polls and betting suddenly crossing over like this. Every graph I see shows the underdog suddenly winning very comfortably.0
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Juppe really has crashed and burned.0
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About the fall and rise of Marco Rubio?Mortimer said:
Watching the Cromwell documentary on BBC4?0 -
Underwater here too. Filon best win the primary now..TheWhiteRabbit said:Hmm, my book has taken a bashing, I think this will right itself in the end, but we shall see.
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I warned everyone on PB that the french polls for those primaries might be crap because no one knew who would actually vote.weejonnie said:TBH I am getting sick of opinion polls and betting suddenly crossing over like this. Every graph I see shows the underdog suddenly winning very comfortably.
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The Graph is pure polling and media bollocks.0
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@TSE - I don't see any reason why it should be any different.
Hammond will simply push out the budget balance target (and balance of spending/tax cuts) to 2022/2023.
Osborne himself tillered his course multiple times.0 -
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Juppé vows to fight on.
Meanwhile Fillon is on 44.1% and has been backed by Sarkozy on 20.9%, with 80% counted.0 -
Lol, Watch out Melania....Speedy said:
Long story short:
After he led the first Brexit for his King, he has his head chopped off due to providing the King with an ugly wife.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/8004482759586037760 -
I might be wrong here, but my gut instinct tells me Fillon is someone who might sound and look a bit different, but will offer little palpable change, from any other French President, upon taking office.
I hope I'm wrong.0 -
"Juppe vows to fight on"TheWhiteRabbit said:Juppé vows to fight on.
Meanwhile Fillon is on 44.1% and has been backed by Sarkozy on 20.9%, with 80% counted.
With what? Fillon is almost at 50% already and has the backing of Sarkozy too.0 -
Well thats quite interesting: will Fillon make a place for Marine Le Pen in his cabinet if he wins, or will Marine Le Pen save a place for Fillon if she wins?Speedy said:Fillon seems a fan of Trump and Putin too:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/8004584831791595520 -
Neither, from next week when Fillon wins, his opponent for the next five months will be Le Pen. No point letting her in.MikeK said:
Well thats quite interesting: will Fillon make a place for Marine Le Pen in his cabinet if he wins, or will Marine Le Pen save a place for Fillon if she wins?Speedy said:Fillon seems a fan of Trump and Putin too:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/8004584831791595520 -
Lol lets not count our chickens here yet...Casino_Royale said:I might be wrong here, but my gut instinct tells me Fillon is someone who might sound and look a bit different, but will offer little palpable change, from any other French President, upon taking office.
I hope I'm wrong.
If the left have swollen Les Republicans numbers and come out for him in a big primary turnout thats a good sign that he is err good shape.0 -
BBC News Merkel ahead in opinion polls
Lay Merkel!!!!0 -
Fillon's tenure as PM coincided with Putin's break from the Presidency when he was Russian PM (and relations with the West were better generally) so they have experience working together.0
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Le Maire backs Fillon, NKM backs Juppé, Sarkozy backs Fillon.0
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There was intense speculation in 2014 and 2015 that if Le Pen won the Presidency she would offer Sarkozy the post of PM in a Republican-FN coalition due to FN's weakness in parliament.MikeK said:
Well thats quite interesting: will Fillon make a place for Marine Le Pen in his cabinet if he wins, or will Marine Le Pen save a place for Fillon if she wins?Speedy said:Fillon seems a fan of Trump and Putin too:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/800458483179159552
I doubt if the same thing is replicable with Fillon.0 -
Your public school tw@ttery is showing!TheScreamingEagles said:I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary
It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.0 -
O/T, Putin must have one of the worst foreign names to render in French. If you simply used the Latin alphabet the pronunciation would sound like 'putain', but the form they use 'Poutine' is the same as the French Canadian dish of chips and gravy so he can't win either way.0
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That opinion poll with the differign turnouts - what figures did it say represented a low/medium/high?Pulpstar said:
Lol lets not count our chickens here yet...Casino_Royale said:I might be wrong here, but my gut instinct tells me Fillon is someone who might sound and look a bit different, but will offer little palpable change, from any other French President, upon taking office.
I hope I'm wrong.
If the left have swollen Les Republicans numbers and come out for him in a big primary turnout thats a good sign that he is err good shape.
It looks as if 4m ballots were cast0 -
French celebs call for an end to Hollande-bashing.
http://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/Deneuve-Binoche-Biolay-Une-cinquantaine-de-personnalites-disent-stop-au-Hollande-bashing-8257510 -
Macron is not a member of Les Republicans.DecrepitJohnL said:What happened to Macron?
He's said for some time, in the Shroder mold, that it is better to have a working relationship with the Russians.Speedy said:Fillon seems a fan of Trump and Putin too:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/8004584831791595520 -
Last time I checked Hollande had a 4% approval rating.williamglenn said:French celebs call for an end to Hollande-bashing.
http://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/Deneuve-Binoche-Biolay-Une-cinquantaine-de-personnalites-disent-stop-au-Hollande-bashing-8257510 -
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He's just trolling!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Your public school tw@ttery is showing!TheScreamingEagles said:I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary
It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.0 -
Schroeder literally has a working relationship with the Russians.rcs1000 said:He's said for some time, in the Shroder mold, that it is better to have a working relationship with the Russians.
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So am I - do you really think that I think he's a PST?TheWhiteRabbit said:
He's just trolling!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Your public school tw@ttery is showing!TheScreamingEagles said:I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary
It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
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I really like the way Bannon is going all out at projecting this idea that the Trump campaign always knew it was going to win and it was an unstoppable juggernaut. The article on the Trump data guys made it clear that they thought they had lost up until the Florida count came in and they redid their projections.0
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clucking bell!TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/800464362066640896
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I reckon the polls are going to be wrong in Italy too.
70-30 "No" - Can see it now.0 -
That graph looks familiar. The pollsters ballsed it up yet again.
Probably some have. But Juppé was never going to win.SeanT said:A lot of French lefties will find it impossible to vote for the Thatcherite Fillon (if he wins the next primary, as is highly likely)
Fillon as the right's candidate makes a Le Pen presidency more probable.
I wonder, therefore, if FN supporters have secretly been voting for Fillon. All very murky.
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Nah, they would have voted for Sarkozy if that was the strategy.SeanT said:A lot of French lefties will find it impossible to vote for the Thatcherite Fillon (if he wins the next primary, as is highly likely)
Fillon as the right's candidate makes a Le Pen presidency more probable.
I wonder, therefore, if FN supporters have secretly been voting for Fillon. All very murky.0 -
They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Your public school tw@ttery is showing!TheScreamingEagles said:I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary
It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.0 -
Le Monde don't think Fillon has a probelm with teh left:SeanT said:A lot of French lefties will find it impossible to vote for the Thatcherite Fillon (if he wins the next primary, as is highly likely)
Fillon as the right's candidate makes a Le Pen presidency more probable.
I wonder, therefore, if FN supporters have secretly been voting for Fillon. All very murky.
"Comment expliquer une telle mobilisation en faveur de F. Fillon ?" (How do you explain the mobilisation in favour of Fillon)
"Donc un certain nombre d'électeurs de gauche sont allés voter à la primaire de la droite, sans doute pour éliminer le candidat dont ils ne voulaient pas et qui avait pour nom Nicolas Sarkozy." (So a number of voters from the left have voted in the primary of the right, presumably to eliminate the candidate they like the least - Nicolas Sarkozy)
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It's difficult to say. I always thought her preferred opponent would be Sarkozy because she clearly gets inside his head and he was liable to try so hard to outflank her that people might as well vote for the real thing. With Fillon as the candidate there will be much more of a spotlight on her economic policies.SeanT said:A lot of French lefties will find it impossible to vote for the Thatcherite Fillon (if he wins the next primary, as is highly likely)
Fillon as the right's candidate makes a Le Pen presidency more probable.
My money's now on either Fillon or Macron winning and the story being about France getting serious about economic reform.0 -
Not as murky as the beheading of Thomas Cromwell wich I watched four times today on four different programs on the lives of Henry VIII and Cromwell. We could do with someone as clever and as devious as Cromwell was, to lead in Britain today.SeanT said:A lot of French lefties will find it impossible to vote for the Thatcherite Fillon (if he wins the next primary, as is highly likely)
Fillon as the right's candidate makes a Le Pen presidency more probable.
I wonder, therefore, if FN supporters have secretly been voting for Fillon. All very murky.0 -
Macron is a Blairite, the evidence is that he gains plenty - perhaps even most - of his support from the right.SeanT said:This graph underlines the utter irrelevancy of the Left, in France as elsewhere.
The highest placed Left candidate is given a 5% chance.
5%
In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.0 -
First round, vote wiz ze 'eart; second round, vote wiz ze 'eaddavid_herdson said:
They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Your public school tw@ttery is showing!TheScreamingEagles said:I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary
It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
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They can't always express a second preference that matches their actual second preference, though.Dromedary said:
First round, vote wiz ze 'eart; second round, vote wiz ze 'eaddavid_herdson said:
They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Your public school tw@ttery is showing!TheScreamingEagles said:I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary
It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.0 -
So the same as the Tory Party election.david_herdson said:
They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Your public school tw@ttery is showing!TheScreamingEagles said:I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary
It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
AV has preferences expressed on the same ballot (ie. the same round of voting).0 -
If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.SeanT said:he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc
And yet somehow, Corbyn...SeanT said:In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.
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Very true. In this Republican contest, that will be true for most voters.TheWhiteRabbit said:
They can't always express a second preference that matches their actual second preference, though.Dromedary said:
First round, vote wiz ze 'eart; second round, vote wiz ze 'eaddavid_herdson said:
They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Your public school tw@ttery is showing!TheScreamingEagles said:I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary
It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
Sometimes ze 'ead says the same as ze 'eart!
From two weeks' time, there will be only two candidates in the race with a chance of running. Fillon will be the punters' and pollsters' strong favourite. But the pollsters could balls up again - that seems to be their big thing at the moment. Events could occur. Breitbart may also start playing a major role in France. That will be one of my major indicators, regardless of what the polls say.SeanT said:
Fillon is almost Trumpian in aspects of Foreign Policy.williamglenn said:My money's now on either Fillon or Macron winning and the story being about France getting serious about economic reform.
Macron has no chance.
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If UKIP get their act together they could be the main opposition to the Tories within two cycles.williamglenn said:
If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.SeanT said:he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc
And yet somehow, Corbyn...SeanT said:In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.
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Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.0
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In the clip posted below he mentioned the Iraq war as starting point of the breakdown in relations between Russia and the US and says it's the cause of the current mess in the Middle East. I'd characterise it as a Chiraquien foreign policy.SeanT said:Fillon is almost Trumpian in aspects of Foreign Policy.
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People like Corbyn ensure it's the right's game now. They own it all. They will mess it up. We've been here before. Times will change once more. It's how history works.williamglenn said:
If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.SeanT said:he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc
And yet somehow, Corbyn...SeanT said:In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.
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Good re-moaning!
I brung you a massage:
Francois Fallon has won the fist round pramary for Les Repooblican condidate for Frunch Preesident.0 -
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Bordeaux voted for their mayor.Pulpstar said:Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.
Do you have a map?0 -
As one person described it earlier on French TV. Then it descended into a discussion of de Gaulle which was beyond my french.williamglenn said:
In the clip posted below he mentioned the Iraq war as starting point of the breakdown in relations between Russia and the US and says it's the cause of the current mess in the Middle East. I'd characterise it as a Chiraquien foreign policy.SeanT said:Fillon is almost Trumpian in aspects of Foreign Policy.
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I have an app, cricviz -AndyJS said:India 1.2
England 48
Draw 7
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/cricket/event?id=28016089&exp=e
The implied prices are as follows:
India 1.12
Draw 11.91
England 500 -
Come on Indi....er, give the Caste-botherers hell!Pulpstar said:
I have an app, cricviz -AndyJS said:India 1.2
England 48
Draw 7
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/cricket/event?id=28016089&exp=e
The implied prices are as follows:
India 1.12
Draw 11.91
England 500 -
https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bordeaux voted for their mayor.Pulpstar said:Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.
Do you have a map?
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Looks pretty comprehensive to me.Pulpstar said:
https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bordeaux voted for their mayor.Pulpstar said:Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.
Do you have a map?
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UKIP could do better than that.MaxPB said:
If UKIP get their act together they could be the main opposition to the Tories within two cycles.williamglenn said:
If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.SeanT said:he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc
And yet somehow, Corbyn...SeanT said:In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.
May: "Let's give lots of visas to Indians in return for investment"
Corbyn: "We are the party of immigration"
Farron: "Let's stay in the EU"
(I write as a Remainer, just to be clear. But against the three main parties in the Commons, UKIP probably won't have a difficult ride, so long as they get themselves a leader and stop manhandling each other. Breitbart and Trump may be able to help.)0 -
Trump vs Kasich stuff in terms of geography.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Looks pretty comprehensive to me.Pulpstar said:
https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bordeaux voted for their mayor.Pulpstar said:Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.
Do you have a map?0 -
Looks like a map of Henry II's holdings in France in the 12th centuryPulpstar said:
https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bordeaux voted for their mayor.Pulpstar said:Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.
Do you have a map? 0 -
The important thing is Fillon won cities, that vote Socialist, and the north east and south east which vote FN.Pulpstar said:
Trump vs Kasich stuff in terms of geography.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Looks pretty comprehensive to me.Pulpstar said:
https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bordeaux voted for their mayor.Pulpstar said:Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.
Do you have a map?0 -
0
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Nah! Henry held more territory than that; and then there were the White Companies to consider.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Looks like a map of Henry II's holdings in France in the 12th centuryPulpstar said:
https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bordeaux voted for their mayor.Pulpstar said:Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.
Do you have a map?0 -
Nah. UKIP won only one seat at the GE and that with a reduced majority against a Cameroonite. UKIP will remain a fringe party, even more so after Brexit, following which they may well expire.Dromedary said:
UKIP could do better than that.MaxPB said:
If UKIP get their act together they could be the main opposition to the Tories within two cycles.williamglenn said:
If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.SeanT said:he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc
And yet somehow, Corbyn...SeanT said:In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.
May: "Let's give lots of visas to Indians in return for investment"
Corbyn: "We are the party of immigration"
Farron: "Let's stay in the EU"
(I write as a Remainer, just to be clear. But against the three main parties in the Commons, UKIP probably won't have a difficult ride, so long as they get themselves a leader and stop manhandling each other. Breitbart and Trump may be able to help.)0 -
The only thing I take from that story is that the Tories are frit.foxinsoxuk said:0 -
Not quite. The French system is analagous to SV, with only two rounds (maximum) and where only the two leading candidates go through if no-one takes over 50%; the Tory system is like AV, with as many rounds as necessary until someone exceeds 50%, with the bottom-most candidate dropping out each time.Sunil_Prasannan said:
So the same as the Tory Party election.david_herdson said:
They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Your public school tw@ttery is showing!TheScreamingEagles said:I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary
It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
AV has preferences expressed on the same ballot (ie. the same round of voting).0 -
The big turnout is a good sign also.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The important thing is Fillon won cities, that vote Socialist, and the north east and south east which vote FN.Pulpstar said:
Trump vs Kasich stuff in terms of geography.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Looks pretty comprehensive to me.Pulpstar said:
https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bordeaux voted for their mayor.Pulpstar said:Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.
Do you have a map?0 -
Sorry, I did mean, of course Edward III's holdings in c.1330. Oops!MikeK said:
Nah! Henry held more territory than that; and then there were the White Companies to consider.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Looks like a map of Henry II's holdings in France in the 12th centuryPulpstar said:
https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bordeaux voted for their mayor.Pulpstar said:Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.
Do you have a map?0 -
The Tory system is NOT AV. It's an Exhaustive Ballot.david_herdson said:
Not quite. The French system is analagous to SV, with only two rounds (maximum) and where only the two leading candidates go through if no-one takes over 50%; the Tory system is like AV, with as many rounds as necessary until someone exceeds 50%, with the bottom-most candidate dropping out each time.Sunil_Prasannan said:
So the same as the Tory Party election.david_herdson said:
They can express two preferences, just not on the same ballot paper. It's effectively SV by exhaustive ballot.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Your public school tw@ttery is showing!TheScreamingEagles said:I do love the quasi AV system they are using for this primary
It's NOT AV because voters could only express a single preference.
AV has preferences expressed on the same ballot (ie. the same round of voting).
Voters get only one vote per round. They cannot list the candidates in each round in order of preference.0 -
Juppé's problem is that he needs even high turnout from the left, whereas some will now feel that with Sarko eliminated there is no need for them to bother.Pulpstar said:
The big turnout is a good sign also.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The important thing is Fillon won cities, that vote Socialist, and the north east and south east which vote FN.Pulpstar said:
Trump vs Kasich stuff in terms of geography.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Looks pretty comprehensive to me.Pulpstar said:
https://twitter.com/martinmichelot/status/800459416227217408TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bordeaux voted for their mayor.Pulpstar said:Juppe has won Boardeaux, and the most racially diverse bit of Paris.
Do you have a map?0 -
If Bayrou doesn't stand it could easily be the case that Macron and Fillon are in the low 20s, and Le Pen on c. 30%.SeanT said:
Fillon is almost Trumpian in aspects of Foreign Policy.williamglenn said:
It's difficult to say. I always thought her preferred opponent would be Sarkozy because she clearly gets inside his head and he was liable to try so hard to outflank her that people might as well vote for the real thing. With Fillon as the candidate there will be much more of a spotlight on her economic policies.SeanT said:A lot of French lefties will find it impossible to vote for the Thatcherite Fillon (if he wins the next primary, as is highly likely)
Fillon as the right's candidate makes a Le Pen presidency more probable.
My money's now on either Fillon or Macron winning and the story being about France getting serious about economic reform.
Macron has no chance.0 -
Hear that? That's the sound of the world's smallest straw being clutched......foxinsoxuk said:0 -
So Juppe massively failed against expectations. Unsurprising as he seemed to offer little real promise of change from the Hollande era, and was basically the French Hillary Clinton.
Fillon is the most anglo-saxon market conservative in his outlook, and I don't see that being popular in France at the moment. Just look at the backlash to the recent labour reforms proposed by Hollande.
Le Pen will clean up big time amongst the socialist base (not the "bobo" parisian types of course) in the second round.0 -
Hmm, I'm effectively now on Fillon at 1.36, with Juppé sitting at a more acceptable loss than the rest.
I'd value my book at -£130, if Fillon does see off Juppé, he's likely to be 1.5, which would be -£60.0 -
It's a fascinating contest. Free market conservative, vs nationalist socialist. With a Blairite figure scoring high teens in the first round (which is only a smidgen behind Fillon's score).Paristonda said:So Juppe massively failed against expectations. Unsurprising as he seemed to offer little real promise of change from the Hollande era, and was basically the French Hillary Clinton.
Fillon is the most anglo-saxon market conservative in his outlook, and I don't see that being popular in France at the moment. Just look at the backlash to the recent labour reforms proposed by Hollande.
Le Pen will clean up big time amongst the socialist base (not the "bobo" parisian types of course) in the second round.
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Juppé is Cameron, Fillon is May and Sarkozy is Farage, if one were forced to pick. (Fillon is more Catholic though!)Paristonda said:So Juppe massively failed against expectations. Unsurprising as he seemed to offer little real promise of change from the Hollande era, and was basically the French Hillary Clinton.
Fillon is the most anglo-saxon market conservative in his outlook, and I don't see that being popular in France at the moment. Just look at the backlash to the recent labour reforms proposed by Hollande.
Le Pen will clean up big time amongst the socialist base (not the "bobo" parisian types of course) in the second round.0 -
If it's possible to bet on a first round outright victory in France it might offer some value. Either people thinking they get a free protest vote for Le Pen who end up pushing her over the line, or a consolidation around Fillon.0
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Incredible result... And a rare day when I am both satisfied politically (I voted Fillon) and financially, thanks to frantic Fillon backing and Juppé laying these past few days.
I hope many of you got on board the Fillon train on Tuesday when he was at 7 on Betfair and I (wioth others such as Dromedary) pointed out he was clearly mispriced.
I Layed out as his price is probably as low as it will get in a while. The next interesting moves will probably occur when we get the first post-primary polls and when Bayrou says if he will be a candidate against Fillon or not.
I expect the prices of Macron and the main socialists to tighten a bit from their current very high level.0 -
My bet on this is the 5/1 with Shadsy on Zac winning with a majority of less than 2500. I think there will be a low turnout even by byelection standards. It is a pointless vanity election with no Tory standing and all the major parties fielding anti-Heathrow candidates.MarqueeMark said:
Hear that? That's the sound of the world's smallest straw being clutched......foxinsoxuk said:0 -
Who would their voters switch to? Things have changed. The vibe at the next election may be anywhere from halfway between the GE2015 vibe and the EUref vibe to well on the other side of the EUref vibe. What are people in the Leavite horde supposed to think, having voted Leave on immigration, when Corbyn says he loves immigration, Farron says let's stay in the EU, and May says "er"? Maybe Steve Bannon could help with the UKIP campaign. The line that the Tories didn't hear the voters' message could be quite successful.foxinsoxuk said:
Nah. UKIP won only one seat at the GE and that with a reduced majority against a Cameroonite. UKIP will remain a fringe party, even more so after Brexit, following which they may well expire.Dromedary said:
UKIP could do better than that.MaxPB said:
If UKIP get their act together they could be the main opposition to the Tories within two cycles.williamglenn said:
If Le Pen is smart (which she is) she'll try to push him into a corner on his gay rights record and pose as their defender against islamification of society.SeanT said:he's Catholic conservative on social issues, anti-abortion, etc
And yet somehow, Corbyn...SeanT said:In the great western democracies we might be seeing a new realignment, from Left versus Right to Centre Right versus Hard Right.
May: "Let's give lots of visas to Indians in return for investment"
Corbyn: "We are the party of immigration"
Farron: "Let's stay in the EU"
(I write as a Remainer, just to be clear. But against the three main parties in the Commons, UKIP probably won't have a difficult ride, so long as they get themselves a leader and stop manhandling each other. Breitbart and Trump may be able to help.)0 -
What is often ignored is that Cromwell was a convinced "protestant" (yes, bit anachronistic to use that). Part of the charges against him were that he was said to have said that he was guiding the King down the hard core reformation path and that he would "prevent" the King from turning back....Sean_F said:
That might be the point he is making.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Steve Bannon has a poor a grasp of history as Morris Dancer, does anyone want to tell him how it ended for Thomas Cromwell?
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/800448275958603776
One interpretation of his fall was that Henry wanted Catholicism without the Pope - basically Cromwell went too far and so he got the chop.
Another is that he was sacrificed by the King to send a message to the nobility that the reformation was not going Lutheran...
Notably, around the time he fell, there was an execution of Catholics for refusing to acknowledge the Supremacy and an execution of "protestants" for being heretics.0
