Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The New Political Divide, Part III

1235»

Comments

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Endorsing Farage as a formal mechanism of government would defeat the purpose. WHat May needs in an informal channel.
    Not good for the job.

    What you need as an informal channel is someone who can be relied on to keep any message back channel. Farage likes the limelight too much.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I have not backed Ed Balls at all for the Labour leadership, but neither have I laid him. I have laid David Miliband.

    Laying Ed Balls at 100-1 on Betfair doesn't tempt me.
    Laying David Miliband sub 10-1 is a big component of my long term book. A tiny bit rebacked at 17ish, so far but the only true liability.
    Balls at 100/1 is a very decent bet and relatively easy to see how it comes off. I tipped him as Next Labour Leader over the summer (pre-Strictly) at a good deal less than that.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Hardly - without the US, our defence spend is essentially meaningless. It's like not having the US or China in global warming agreements. Without them what anyone else does is essentially irrelevant.

    I disagree. But best left there.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Putting Ted Cruz in the Supreme Court would be a very neat way of kicking him upstairs.

    Isn't that a West Wing plotline?
  • Balls at 100/1 is a very decent bet and relatively easy to see how it comes off. I tipped him as Next Labour Leader over the summer (pre-Strictly) at a good deal less than that.
    % chance Balls is eligible, % chance Balls stands, % chance he gets the nomination, % chance he wins.

    He's a proven loser, I say that as a Norwich City fan.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited November 2016
    @MaxPB

    'The French also refused to attend the emergency meeting as well. That's Europe's two major military powers effectively backing Trump over the EU on NATO. It's time for Germany and the rest to pay up. €117bn please.'


    Without the UK & France Europe's defence capabilities would be a joke.


  • Charles said:

    He's not. HMG has made that very clear.

    He's just a self-agrandising tit
    Tory Leavers have enabled him, we're reaping what you have sown.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    MTimT said:

    It has already reversed. For the past two years there has been a net emigration of Mexicans from the US back to Mexico. Being driven mainly by economic factors.
    Additionally Trump all but kills off any chance of another one off amnesty for the 11m illegals currently in the country. I do wonder whether the dynamics have already changed. If Trump wins a second term then the US could look very different electorally than it does now. The settled view on migration once the wall/fence is completed is probably going to be anti, even in liberal border states. The Dems are going to find it tough if whites become a block vote but they are unable to increase the size of their block vote by migration and amnesties.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552

    So someone has managed to email all 1.2 million NHS employees.

    And everyone is replying 'I don't think email should have been sent to me'

    or 'Can you take me off this email discussion'

    or 'Quit hit replying to all'

    What did the e-mail say? "You're fired"? That might just have disrupted patient care more than the junior doctors managed.....
  • Sean_F said:

    Penalising Sanctuary Cities seems entirely reasonable to me. Immigration is a Federal issue, not a local government issue.

    This is an interesting and rare example of US politics being to the Left of UK politics. In this country, enfranchising illegal immigrants is an idea restricted to the extreme Left. In the US, it's mainstream in the Democratic Party.
    Mainstream democrats also still seem to worship trade unions.

    I find it hard to see how i'd be anything other than a western Republican were I a US citizen.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    stodge said:

    TC_Political Betting never says anything positive about the Lib Dems - it's well known to anyone who uses the site.


    Ok, but there's a difference between not saying anything positive and deliberately giving a false impression by cherry picking results.
    Just give me the facts.
  • 2008
    It's locking up my money for years that puts me off.

    Corbyn could be around a long time.
  • Mainstream democrats also still seem to worship trade unions.

    I find it hard to see how i'd be anything other than a western Republican were I a US citizen.
    The problem is, to get rid of the unions, we increased the role of the state. It is not a trade many Americans would feel comfortable with.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The Dems are going to find it tough if whites become a block vote but they are unable to increase the size of their block vote by migration and amnesties. ''

    Politicians having to answer to a stable electorate as opposed to one they imported???

    Whatever next?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552

    Tory Leavers have enabled him, we're reaping what you have sown.
    How did we "enable" him FFS? We worked hard to keep him out of Westminster.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    Not sure how the US pulling out of NATO will strengthen our negotiating position with the EU. We are a European country and if the US were to abandon its 70 year defence strategy it would be dumping on us just as much as the Germans. Indeed, it would make Trump the most anti-British US president for many a long year.

    It would leave the putative EU army as the only international defence pact in place, However, I think Trump would find it difficult to dump NATO. The US is too heavily invested. In any case Trump's purpose is to get others to contribute more not to get rid of the outfit entirely. This is a spat between Germany mainly and the US and doesn't involve us one way or the other.
  • What did the e-mail say? "You're fired"? That might just have disrupted patient care more than the junior doctors managed.....
    '186m needless emails': NHS-wide test message (and replies) crash system

    Some users prevented from accessing email system after IT contractor at Croydon NHS messages all 1.2 million employees

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/nov/14/186m-needless-emails-nhs-wide-test-message-and-replies-to-all-crash-system
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    edited November 2016

    It's locking up my money for years that puts me off.

    Corbyn could be around a long time.
    Wait for reports of him arriving at Heathrow, he'll probably go sub 10s at some point (Again). Lay him at that point.

    Corbyn will be out on his ear if his soundly thrashed at 2020 (Or before) you'll collect at that point.

    Don't forget you can lay others too.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.
  • So when should I start laying David Miliband?

    I think the "lay the favourite" rule now applies to both parties.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Afternoon. Does the PB "second channel" still exist, the one that used to feature racing and other sports?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    MTimT said:


    Does he? Or is he merely a court jester?
    I imagine Farage is very marketable as a lobbyist selling access to Trump for patronage. The other stuff is mere trumpery
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    By the way I'll ask my colleague in 2020 what the prevailing views are from the US parent regarding Trump / Warren or w/e.

    This time round they hated Clinton apparently.

    They're Toledo, Ohio based so the anecdata might be very useful.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't know why Cook didn't declare when 275 ahead instead of waiting until 310. Those extra overs could have proven decisive.
  • Tory Leavers have enabled him, we're reaping what you have sown.
    Tory remainers like you created the conditions that allowed him.to thrive. He is your creature not ours. Grow a spine and take some responsibility for once.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pulpstar said:

    By the way I'll ask my colleague in 2020 what the prevailing views are from the US parent regarding Trump / Warren or w/e.

    This time round they hated Clinton apparently.

    They're Toledo, Ohio based so the anecdata might be very useful.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again....anecdata is the way forward.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    edited November 2016

    Tory remainers like you created the conditions that allowed him.to thrive. He is your creature not ours. Grow a spine and take some responsibility for once.
    So you want me to take responsibility for your party leader?

    Well it is a view I suppose.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729
    AndyJS said:

    I don't know why Cook didn't declare when 275 ahead instead of waiting until 310. Those extra overs could have proven decisive.

    More to the point, why did they not force the pace on the final morning ? They actually scored slower than during the previous evening session.

    In any event, Cook is Captain Cautious, not Courageous... and is possibly not unconcerned with his test average.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @FF43


    'It would leave the putative EU army as the only international defence pact in place, However, I think Trump would find it difficult to dump NATO. The US is too heavily invested. In any case Trump's purpose is to get others to contribute more not to get rid of the outfit entirely. This is a spat between Germany mainly and the US and doesn't involve us one way or the other.'


    Easier still, if you don't pay the membership fee of the club you lose your membership.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    edited November 2016
    AndyJS said:

    I don't know why Cook didn't declare when 275 ahead instead of waiting until 310. Those extra overs could have proven decisive.

    Yeah but then India get off to 150-0 off the first 30 overs, and you've got a problem on your hands.

    This sort of thing:

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/current/match/860267.html
  • So awful it is brilliant from SeanT

    @thomasknox: If America is now "the new Vietnam" then that makes Donald Trump: Agent Orange. Thankyou. I'll be in Australia all week.
  • AndyJS said:

    I don't know why Cook didn't declare when 275 ahead instead of waiting until 310. Those extra overs could have proven decisive.

    That's something you do when you're trailing in the Test series, not in the first match of the series.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729

    That's something you do when you're trailing in the Test series, not in the first match of the series.
    Except this might be our best chance of a win...
  • So you want me to take responsibility for your party leader?

    Well it is a view I suppose.
    You tried to blame a section of your own party for him. It's a view I suppose. Hypocrite.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    What is an exburb? In the analysis of trumps victory I keep reading he won these bigly. Which towns/cities would be simmilar if any in the U.K?
  • Nigelb said:

    Except this might be our best chance of a win...
    Maybe.

    The main issue now is how do you get Jimmy Anderson into the team now that he's fit?

    We need all three spinners, so you'll have to drop a seamer.

    So you're going to have to drop one of Stokes, Woakes, or Broad.

    Stokes ain't getting dropped, Woakes has been our player of 2016, so it is either don't play Jimmy or drop Broad
  • Pulpstar said:

    Wait for reports of him arriving at Heathrow, he'll probably go sub 10s at some point (Again). Lay him at that point.

    Corbyn will be out on his ear if his soundly thrashed at 2020 (Or before) you'll collect at that point.

    Don't forget you can lay others too.
    Thanks.

    Miliband is the British Rubio.

    (Or British Bush)
  • nunu said:

    What is an exburb? In the analysis of trumps victory I keep reading he won these bigly. Which towns/cities would be simmilar if any in the U.K?

    An exurb is one of those rich only commutable by car areas outside the city's suburbs.
  • Mr. Max, Thatcher is to lefties as Hannibal was to Rome. Even generations down the road, they still scare their children with the words "Thatcher ad portas!"
  • stodge said:

    TC_Political Betting never says anything positive about the Lib Dems - it's well known to anyone who uses the site.
    I was being positive and generous when I predicted 1 Lib Dem MEP in 2014. One PB chap suggested it was a wet dream. Most unkind.

    Seriously, I have said that I expect some LD councillor gains over the next few years but that this will be at a rate that will take them >30 years to get back to where they once were. After losing 3,000 councillors from their peak, adding 30 councillors is a recovery rate of 1%!
  • Mr. Max, Thatcher is to lefties as Hannibal was to Rome. Even generations down the road, they still scare their children with the words "Thatcher ad portas!"

    Nonsense. Thatcher actually won a war.
  • Mr. Eagles, Hannibal marauding in Italy was more impressive than anything Thatcher achieved, but both made a severe psychological imprint on their foes.
  • AndyJS said:

    I don't know why Cook didn't declare when 275 ahead instead of waiting until 310. Those extra overs could have proven decisive.

    Yeah, it would have given India enough overs to go for the win...
  • An exurb is one of those rich only commutable by car areas outside the city's suburbs.
    So the British equivalent would be the stockbroker belt for London and places like Alderley Edge and Prestbury for Manchester?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    new thread

  • NEW THREAD

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    MaxPB said:



    Additionally Trump all but kills off any chance of another one off amnesty for the 11m illegals currently in the country. I do wonder whether the dynamics have already changed. If Trump wins a second term then the US could look very different electorally than it does now. The settled view on migration once the wall/fence is completed is probably going to be anti, even in liberal border states. The Dems are going to find it tough if whites become a block vote but they are unable to increase the size of their block vote by migration and amnesties.

    For the time being at least, I think you are right that any potential manifesto based on inclusiveness is killed off. The long term trend amongst the college educated whites, which is the most important voting demographic, and a growing one, is a slow drift from somewhat Republican to half and half Democrat and Republican. That trend continued in the latest election.

    Democrats get the bulk of support from non Whites and Hispanics (representing 40% of the population but a much smaller percentage of voters). That party is better set up for the long term than the Republicans, even if they have had the stuffing knocked out of them just now.
This discussion has been closed.