politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium found more CON voters than LAB ones believing that

state_go_away said:

anothernick said:

Norm said:

Cammo is right to highlight Labour's corporation tax clanger. I am expecting that little measure to be quietly dropped before 2015.

How many votes do you think there are in cutting corporation tax for large companies? I'd say approximately 0.

its a shame really as big compnaies tend to be more diversely owned (certainly listed companies are) and belong to an awful lot of people in terms of pension and insurance funds. .

But that link is too diffuse for it to have much electoral relevance. The perception is that increased profits in big companies go into the pockets of greedy directors who pay themselves absurd and unjustifiable bonuses and salaries whilst those further down have to make do with below-inflation pay rises and zero hours contracts. You might disagree with EdM's solution to this but at least he realises the problem exists. The Tories seem to be completely oblivious.

state_go_away said:

Sorry don't understand your point

That companies owned by pension funds, etc. are owned by the public.

I have had to explain to people from other countries that 'publicly owned' companies are owned by the state, and private companies are owned by the public. Quite confusing at times.

Ron Laverick ‏@2cvdolly1 8m

I don't know! Some Tory grandees say "We want our @UKIP cousins back!" then Heseltine Grandee call them all racist! Are they just addled?

It's all a cunning plan. Just wait till Cammie reveals more about his Cast Iron IN/OUT referendum just in time for the EU elections. Then all will be made clear. Probably.

Gerry_Mander said:

state_go_away said:

Sorry don't understand your point

That companies owned by pension funds, etc. are owned by the public.

I have had to explain to people from other countries that 'publicly owned' companies are owned by the state, and private companies are owned by the public. Quite confusing at times.

Bit like schools, really! Or used to be, anyway!

Neil said:

Alanbrooke said:

So the conference season is over and what have we learnt ?

Ed thinks it's not fair that some people think his dad was a bit weird.

That's it.

We learned, again, that just when you think Ed might be starting to drown in a puddle of his own slight weirdness that he's capable of doing something to grab the initiative.

I must have missed it among the maudlin father worship.

SMukesh said:

Alanbrooke said:

SMukesh said:

tim said:

SMukesh said:

Isn`t the Tory conference due to start soon?

Overshadowed by Miliband, who'd have guessed it 10 days ago?

CCHQ Press Office ‏@RicHolden 6m
YES WE CAM #cpc13

Priceless

Cam looks like he`s depressed with bags under his eyes.

Looks like CCHQ don`t have a clue how to repsond to Miliband`s ideas!

Brilliant ! PB Lefties you've gotta love them.

Yes SMukesh I'm sure he's just trembling at the thought of Ed saying that's not fair to everything.

He certainly has bags under his eyes.Perhaps not so chilled these days,our Cam.

That was a seriously underwhelming zombified performance.

It was certainly dull, but then who remembers any of the conference speeches ? This time next week it will be Schnee von gestern.

Jonathan said:

Alanbrooke said:

So the conference season is over and what have we learnt ?

Ed thinks it's not fair that some people think his dad was a bit weird.

That's it.

I think there is more to it than that. One of the biggest criticisms of political parties is that they are "all the same". Labour definitely broke from the pack last week. Risky, but a definite change.

Labour have moved slightly to the left. It is a mixed picture (for instance saying they'll break the link with the unions, if that happens), but the policies are decidedly moving to the left.

The problem is that when Labour were most recently to the left of the centre ground, before Blair, they were unelectable. Ed believes in a more leftish agenda for the future of the country. The question is whether the country agrees with him.

SMukesh said:

That was a seriously underwhelming zombified performance.

The bits I saw were perfectly fine. No particular substance but good points and well delivered.

It is a fair indication of how far to the right the UK political discourse has moved over the years that EdM's proposals to apply short-term price controls to the energy sector, just as they are currently applied to the water industry, to train companies etc, and to slightly extend the existing compulsory purchase order regime are considered by some as being a move to the extreme left.

Although I did not see Cameron's speech, I am assuming from the lack of gushing praise or strident criticism on here that it was not one of his best.

I think its a shame Labour has won conference season because they have won it by negative populism to me . If you are going for populism at least be positive.

But won it they have , the evidence is in which side or party is consoling themselves that this time next month nobody will remember the conferences/ It seems to be the tories!! The tories are right of course though as I have already forgotton the Lib Dem one!!

popularism even!!

SouthamObserver said:

slightly extend the existing compulsory purchase order regime are considered by some as being a move to the extreme left

I dont think anyone really believes the IMF is on the extreme left and yet they were also proposing "fiscal disincentives for holding land without development".

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13210.pdf

Letta's government is safe...at least for a couple of weeks...

the confidence vote is taking place right now..but after the revolt of around 25 PdL Senators, Silvio decided not to vote against the confidence.

tim said:

JohnO said:

tim said:

JohnO said:

Jonathan said:

Alanbrooke said:

So the conference season is over and what have we learnt ?

Ed thinks it's not fair that some people think his dad was a bit weird.

That's it.

I think there is more to it than that. One of the biggest criticisms of political parties is that they are "all the same". Labour definitely broke from the pack. Risky, but a definite change.

That's a pithy but fair summary. But when the dust settles, as it will in the weeks ahead, I'd prefer to pitching my tent firmly in the broad centre ground (albeit tilted modestly to the right) than the "risky" strategy of shifting noticeably to the left. Continuing economic recovery should make that choice even riskier. We shall see.

How helpful will Heseltine branding UKIP switchers racist (as Cameron has also done) be for you?

To be strictly accurate he called UKIP the party racist not those who had switched (nor Farage himself).

Old Tarzan has lost none of his magic as a compelling interviewee and still appeals to floating voters/non Tories, but as he has effectively been out of frontline politics since 1997, I doubt whether it will have much impact one way or the other.

His analysis that, faced by a discernibly left wing Labour/Ed as PM, most Tory inclined UKIP switchers will return to the fold (with noses covered) on election day is far more sound than lurching the party to the right to regain their support.

I agree with your last paragraph, Crosby stoking up immigration just helps UKIP.
The problem is that Hezza is more or less repeating what Cameron said about the Kippers, which was daft, most of them want foreigners kept out regardless of colour.

I'm in no doubt that Lynton Crosby is a huge plus for the Tories. It's already showing.

SMukesh said:

Alanbrooke said:

SMukesh said:

Alanbrooke said:

SMukesh said:

tim said:

SMukesh said:

Isn`t the Tory conference due to start soon?

Overshadowed by Miliband, who'd have guessed it 10 days ago?

CCHQ Press Office ‏@RicHolden 6m
YES WE CAM #cpc13

Priceless

Cam looks like he`s depressed with bags under his eyes.

Looks like CCHQ don`t have a clue how to repsond to Miliband`s ideas!

Brilliant ! PB Lefties you've gotta love them.

Yes SMukesh I'm sure he's just trembling at the thought of Ed saying that's not fair to everything.

He certainly has bags under his eyes.Perhaps not so chilled these days,our Cam.

That was a seriously underwhelming zombified performance.

It was certainly dull, but then who remembers any of the conference speeches ? This time next week it will be Schnee von gestern.

And didn`t pull out any rabbits as widely expected.Not sure the speech is going to excite the activists for a week,let alone a year.

He doesn't actually need to pull rabbits from hats. If the economy progresses and wages start to rise he can save his rabbits for the next budget. Cleggy too.

tim said:

"To facilitate an adequate supply response, the government could also consider fiscal disincentives for holding land without development. "

Where's the bit where they said 'use it or lose it'?

A very good realistic speech by Cameron and the tories now need now is more help with the cost of living,for all what was good about camerons speech,miliband stole the conference season with the energy freeze and house building(even if it's pie in the sky)

tim said:

Gaby Hinsliff ‏@gabyhinsliff
One last thing re that PM speech: it wasn't normal Cam. Tired, subdued, under rehearsed. wonder if sthing else preoccupying him.

Sounded as if he had a fearfully bad cold. Lots of coughing during the periods of applause.

RichardNabavi said:

tim said:

"To facilitate an adequate supply response, the government could also consider fiscal disincentives for holding land without development. "

Where's the bit where they said 'use it or lose it'?

They clearly meant that the fiscal disincentive should be of the order of 101% of the value of the land, Richard!

Marxist scum.

SouthamObserver said:

It is a fair indication of how far to the right the UK political discourse has moved over the years that EdM's proposals to apply short-term price controls to the energy sector, just as they are currently applied to the water industry, to train companies etc, and to slightly extend the existing compulsory purchase order regime are considered by some as being a move to the extreme left.

Yes trhe irony of Heseltine suggesting people will return to the Tories for fear of the rEd is that rEd is no further left than Hezza was in the 80's with his intervene before breakfast lunch and dinner guff.

anotherDave said:

JohnO said:

tim said:

JohnO said:

Jonathan said:

Alanbrooke said:

So the conference season is over and what have we learnt ?

Ed thinks it's not fair that some people think his dad was a bit weird.

That's it.

I think there is more to it than that. One of the biggest criticisms of political parties is that they are "all the same". Labour definitely broke from the pack. Risky, but a definite change.

That's a pithy but fair summary. But when the dust settles, as it will in the weeks ahead, I'd prefer to pitching my tent firmly in the broad centre ground (albeit tilted modestly to the right) than the "risky" strategy of shifting noticeably to the left. Continuing economic recovery should make that choice even riskier. We shall see.

How helpful will Heseltine branding UKIP switchers racist (as Cameron has also done) be for you?

His analysis that, faced by a discernibly left wing Labour/Ed as PM, most Tory inclined UKIP switchers will return to the fold (with noses covered) on election day is far more sound than lurching the party to the right to regain their support.

That's not analysis.

The Cameron-Conservatives have no idea how to win back the Con>UKIP switchers, so they tell themselves everything will OK.

they will never win back the hard core of kippers but the floaters are all to play for.

RichardNabavi said:

So, to important matters:

Kerching! on Boris at 2/1. Hooray.

Raspberry on Hardworking families at 6/4. Boo.

It's been Hardworking People all week.......

'''some one who use to be a political editor for the observer and now works for the guardian didn't like a tory pm speech'''

A well paid senior editorial position on Newsnight is surely around the corner, And from there a highly lucrative private sector hedge fund marketing role.

AveryLP said:

Alanbrooke said:

SMukesh said:

Alanbrooke said:

SMukesh said:

tim said:

SMukesh said:

Isn`t the Tory conference due to start soon?

Overshadowed by Miliband, who'd have guessed it 10 days ago?

CCHQ Press Office ‏@RicHolden 6m
YES WE CAM #cpc13

Priceless

Cam looks like he`s depressed with bags under his eyes.

Looks like CCHQ don`t have a clue how to repsond to Miliband`s ideas!

Brilliant ! PB Lefties you've gotta love them.

Yes SMukesh I'm sure he's just trembling at the thought of Ed saying that's not fair to everything.

He certainly has bags under his eyes.Perhaps not so chilled these days,our Cam.

That was a seriously underwhelming zombified performance.

It was certainly dull, but then who remembers any of the conference speeches ? This time next week it will be Schnee von gestern.

Be kind to SMukesh, Mr. Brooke.

He gives out the impression that he is a soft-centred and loveable leftie.

The kind who would tend to the graves of old Marxists in Highgate Cemetery.

Mr Pole I always enjoy SMukesh observations his panglossian views always contrast so well with those on the Mersey.

SouthamObserver said:

It is a fair indication of how far to the right the UK political discourse has moved over the years that EdM's proposals to apply short-term price controls to the energy sector, just as they are currently applied to the water industry, to train companies etc, and to slightly extend the existing compulsory purchase order regime are considered by some as being a move to the extreme left.

A few people trying to push a talking point doesn't tell us anything about where the UK political discourse has or hasn't moved.

The Tory proposal on under 25s not accessing benefits is going to need to be rethought. Whilst the philosophy underpinning it is reasonable enough (it will focus the minds of young people and their parents and is an important step towards people realising there is a limit to what the Government of even a prosperous nation can and should provide) - it will result in significant unfairness. Imagine you had a man who left school at 16, worked for eight solid years, married his similarly dependable childhood sweetheart at 22, had twins at 23, she left her job to look after them, he is made redundant at 24. Should he not be entitled to benefits? Should he be treated like a feckless school leaver with no life plan and no ambition? By contrast a middle class no hoper could have a gap year, spend four years failing a pointless university course, live at home for a couple of years sponging off mum and dad and then qualify for benefits.

With any Government policy it is easy to identify specific cases that make a generally fair policy seem unfair, so I am wary of raising this, but it seems to me there needs to be some recognition of contributions in assessing entitlements among under 25s, rather than a blanket prohibition on them receiving benefits.

On the other issue of the day, I feel that Miliband brought his father's philosophy into play so the Mail were within rights to run a piece on it, but they did go too far in the words they used and the headline was not justified by the facts. I really don't think we should hold anything a politician - let alone their parents - said at the age of 17 against them; I'd hate to be judged by those standards. I thought Miliband's exercise of his right of reply was reasonable and he made good points - but that should have been the end of it. I don't think either party is coming out of this well now; the Mail looks irrational and vindictive, Miliband increasingly thin-skinned. No doubt he's attracting some sympathy, but his already scarce leadership credentials are dissolving in front of our eyes. Can you imagine Obama, Merkel or Putin reacting as he has done? I imagine Putin's special advisers have been telling him - if you ever meet him at the G20, I bet you can make him cry...

CarlottaVance said:

RichardNabavi said:

So, to important matters:

Kerching! on Boris at 2/1. Hooray.

Raspberry on Hardworking families at 6/4. Boo.

It's been Hardworking People all week.......

You can't even trust this Prime Minister to win a sure fire political bet. Useless !

Flockers_pb said:

The Tory proposal on under 25s not accessing benefits is going to need to be rethought.

It's pie in the sky nonsense. It won't happen but it served as speculative 'filler' for an already thin speech.

@Flockers - You really should post more often.

Alanbrooke said:

Neil said:

Alanbrooke said:

Neil said:

Alanbrooke said:

So the conference season is over and what have we learnt ?

Ed thinks it's not fair that some people think his dad was a bit weird.

That's it.

We learned, again, that just when you think Ed might be starting to drown in a puddle of his own slight weirdness that he's capable of doing something to grab the initiative.

I must have missed it among the maudlin father worship.

I know - that loving his father yuckiness made me forget the headline-dominating conference speech of his too.

What's a headline ? It lasts for a day. can any of us really remember the speeches from last year ? The big world outside PB see very little of it and worry even less. In a month's time when PB is muttering about something else the reference to speeches will be next to non-existent.

Agreed. In a year's time normal people will likely remember either

1. Miliband sticking up for his Dad
2. Miliband's Dad was a bit left-wing
plus something on energy prices

Genuinely not sure which one - and how impactful it will be on voting

HortenceWithering said:

Tykejohnno said:

tim said:

Gaby Hinsliff ‏@gabyhinsliff
One last thing re that PM speech: it wasn't normal Cam. Tired, subdued, under rehearsed. wonder if sthing else preoccupying him.

Oh what a surprise,some one who use to be a political editor for the observer and now works for the guardian didn't like a tory pm speech

Yes, almost as surprising as Quentin Letts who works for the Daily Mail telling us on the Daily Politics that Cameron's speech was great whereas Miliband's speech was "wild and mad".

Where did I post Quentin letts tweet ?

Well it's not me posting tweets on pb just to attack Cameron because he hates the tory party.

Compelling people to learn or earn...

dr_spyn said:

Compelling people to learn or earn...

It's a bit bollocks if you ask me. You're compelling people to learn by forcing them to borrow £9k for fees and then some more to live . Indentured labour comes to mind.

tim said:

@Flockers.

Cameron floats that bollocks every year or so, for the reasons you've set out it won't happen, but it excites the knuckleheads.

Your insults are getting worse.

felix said:

HortenceWithering said:

Tykejohnno said:

tim said:

Gaby Hinsliff ‏@gabyhinsliff
One last thing re that PM speech: it wasn't normal Cam. Tired, subdued, under rehearsed. wonder if sthing else preoccupying him.

Oh what a surprise,some one who use to be a political editor for the observer and now works for the guardian didn't like a tory pm speech

Yes, almost as surprising as Quentin Letts who works for the Daily Mail telling us on the Daily Politics that Cameron's speech was great whereas Miliband's speech was "wild and mad".

No exactly as surprising - just as praise for Cam from mick pork will come as soon as pigs start flying.

Pork's output going over our heads?

I live in fear.

AveryLP said:

felix said:

HortenceWithering said:

Tykejohnno said:

tim said:

Gaby Hinsliff ‏@gabyhinsliff
One last thing re that PM speech: it wasn't normal Cam. Tired, subdued, under rehearsed. wonder if sthing else preoccupying him.

Oh what a surprise,some one who use to be a political editor for the observer and now works for the guardian didn't like a tory pm speech

Yes, almost as surprising as Quentin Letts who works for the Daily Mail telling us on the Daily Politics that Cameron's speech was great whereas Miliband's speech was "wild and mad".

No exactly as surprising - just as praise for Cam from mick pork will come as soon as pigs start flying.

Pork's output going over our heads?

I live in fear.

The high satire of your comedy spinning is of course unmatched, Seth O Logue.
Some might foolishly think it clunkingly obvious and simplistic variations on the laughably inept spin that little Ed is somehow a Stalin of our time, but you of course are sending up the idiots on here doing that, aren't you?

TwistedFireStopper said:

So, the party conference season is over. I think Milliband will be the most pleased, once the shouting is over. He's been in the news a lot, is in a high profile spat with the Mail (never a bad thing) and has done a lot to dispel the view of him as weak. He's promised to free the oppressed workers from the clutches of the evil capitalist energy companies, grab some land for the aforementioned workers and he's overshadowed the Tory conference.

Not only that, his party seems to have swallowed the fact that he's going to carry on with nearly all the tax and spending policies he spent the first half of the parliament getting them riled up about, not to mention a load of free-market stuff like unbundling the energy sector that was too right-wing for Thatcher.

Alanbrooke said:

anotherDave said:

JohnO said:

tim said:

JohnO said:

Jonathan said:

Alanbrooke said:

So the conference season is over and what have we learnt ?

Ed thinks it's not fair that some people think his dad was a bit weird.

That's it.

I think there is more to it than that. One of the biggest criticisms of political parties is that they are "all the same". Labour definitely broke from the pack. Risky, but a definite change.

That's a pithy but fair summary. But when the dust settles, as it will in the weeks ahead, I'd prefer to pitching my tent firmly in the broad centre ground (albeit tilted modestly to the right) than the "risky" strategy of shifting noticeably to the left. Continuing economic recovery should make that choice even riskier. We shall see.

How helpful will Heseltine branding UKIP switchers racist (as Cameron has also done) be for you?

His analysis that, faced by a discernibly left wing Labour/Ed as PM, most Tory inclined UKIP switchers will return to the fold (with noses covered) on election day is far more sound than lurching the party to the right to regain their support.

That's not analysis.

The Cameron-Conservatives have no idea how to win back the Con>UKIP switchers, so they tell themselves everything will OK.

they will never win back the hard core of kippers but the floaters are all to play for.

Yes, but they don't have any ideas for attracting the soft-UKIP voters either. They just telling themselves it will all work out. That's not a plan.

anotherDave said:

Alanbrooke said:

anotherDave said:

JohnO said:

tim said:

JohnO said:

Jonathan said:

Alanbrooke said:

So the conference season is over and what have we learnt ?

Ed thinks it's not fair that some people think his dad was a bit weird.

That's it.

I think there is more to it than that. One of the biggest criticisms of political parties is that they are "all the same". Labour definitely broke from the pack. Risky, but a definite change.

That's a pithy but fair summary. But when the dust settles, as it will in the weeks ahead, I'd prefer to pitching my tent firmly in the broad centre ground (albeit tilted modestly to the right) than the "risky" strategy of shifting noticeably to the left. Continuing economic recovery should make that choice even riskier. We shall see.

How helpful will Heseltine branding UKIP switchers racist (as Cameron has also done) be for you?

His analysis that, faced by a discernibly left wing Labour/Ed as PM, most Tory inclined UKIP switchers will return to the fold (with noses covered) on election day is far more sound than lurching the party to the right to regain their support.

That's not analysis.

The Cameron-Conservatives have no idea how to win back the Con>UKIP switchers, so they tell themselves everything will OK.

they will never win back the hard core of kippers but the floaters are all to play for.

Yes, but they don't have any ideas for attracting the soft-UKIP voters either. They just telling themselves it will all work out. That's not a plan.

Or a judgement call.

If your choice is to tack to the right and lose the centre or stay in the centre and hope the prospect of "Marxist Ed" is so horrifying to the right that they will vote for Cameron, I'm not sure they have chosen the wrong strategy.

Although Heseltine being rude is a little silly (however all the kippers probably think he is a communist backstabber anyway so perhaps it doesn't matter)

Charles said:

Although Heseltine being rude is a little silly (however all the kippers probably think he is a communist backstabber anyway so perhaps it doesn't matter)

No sillier than Cameron who added "loonies" and "fruitcakes" for good measure.

I must stand up for Austrian wine. Long may it be associated in the British public's mind with antifreeze so that those of us who know about it can continue to enjoy it at slightly lower prices.

Plato said:

Quentin Letts isn't on Twitter...

Tykejohnno said:

HortenceWithering said:

Tykejohnno said:

tim said:

Gaby Hinsliff ‏@gabyhinsliff
One last thing re that PM speech: it wasn't normal Cam. Tired, subdued, under rehearsed. wonder if sthing else preoccupying him.

Oh what a surprise,some one who use to be a political editor for the observer and now works for the guardian didn't like a tory pm speech

Yes, almost as surprising as Quentin Letts who works for the Daily Mail telling us on the Daily Politics that Cameron's speech was great whereas Miliband's speech was "wild and mad".

Where did I post Quentin letts tweet ?

Well it's not me posting tweets on pb just to attack Cameron because he hates the tory party.

Well can I replace tweets with Quotes ;-)