politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Telegraph’s reporting that ministers preparing for snap sp

Matthew Parris — "The last thing May needs is an early election".

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-last-thing-may-needs-is-an-early-election-sbthc9kjp

TheScreamingEagles said:

Repeal it

Yes please!

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

It'll probably be like it or lump it.

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

It'll probably be like it or lump it.

That's expecting a lot of MPs on either side to do either.

AlastairMeeks said:

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

It'll probably be like it or lump it.

That's expecting a lot of MPs on either side to do either.

Well there isn't really another option, if an election is to be held.

She will only do it if Parliament holds up triggering Article 50 beyond her deadline of March and only then if the Commons is the problem, there is little point if it is the Lords that is the problem as they could not care less if she has a majority of 300 they will still hold it up, she will have to use the Parliament Act or create more Peers to deal with them. Unless that is she goes to the country on a platform of scrapping the Lords either completely or by replacing it with an elected second chamber

Trouble for Nicola - up to six SNP MSP's voted to leave.

Last night the Tories took a seat of SNP and one from the Lib Dems

Maybe more MP's than Panda's for the Tories at the next GE, whenever it is

pinkrose said:

I don't get these people who are becoming hysterical about so called nasty Brexit Britian, where foreigners fear to tread and the working class are racist feral scum. If one million British people had, within ten years, suddenly moved to Poland, depressed wages, exacerbated a housing crisis, put pressure on services and were allowed to access healthcare and claim benefits to top up their low wages/get help with housing costs exactly the same as Polish people, even though they hadn't contributed a zloty to the country, do you think the worst that Polish people would've done would've been to vote Leave in an EU Referendum? I don't think so.

I really like the fact that you haven't put any little yellow cartoon faces in this post...but I do find your picture a bit scary

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

George isnt there to threaten and reward

theyll bribe them with prospects and the 170 will shrink to 70 and the 145 will become 245

Tsk, only today the WTW Leavers were accusing Stephen Phillips of being a LINO. It's so difficult keeping track of the cross currents.

LOL

one MP from300+ has a principle

start counting from there

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Repeal it

The Lords would likely block that.

They could repeal it with the Parliament Act? Although FTPA is a bit of a Pandora's box, since I don't think a prerogative can be restored by an act of parliament.

steve_garner said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.

So who would you vote for then?

I'd probably abstain

SeanT said:

fpt

My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

He could win.

Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

I am not sure a General Election will resolve the issue.

Alastair is right, that the only viable route to catharsis is the hardest of all possible Brexits, border controls, WTO tariffs, the whole 9 yards.

My local Tory MP was a prominent Brexiteer and would probably stand on such a ticket.

And there is no way I would vote for the fuckers

TheScreamingEagles said:

steve_garner said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.

So who would you vote for then?

I'd probably abstain

There are some good animal welfare parties out there. I think human beings are clearly showing that we have made enough horlicks of the planet....why not?

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.

There's no way TMay will call an election and then campaign explicitly for a Hard Brexit. You surely see this. It invites an incredible and unprecedented defeat: uniting the Remainers and the soft nervous Brexiteers against her.

She will produce a manifesto saying "Brexit means Brexit" etc etc. Leaving her options open.

That's what the Telegraph article says.

As you said it sounds bonkers.

But bonkers does fit her approach to Brexit, all of this could have been avoided by a simple Article 50 bill and vote.

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.

Brexit won't happen, unless a party fights and wins a general election on a platform of Brexit, and then passes primary legislation to implement it.

The FTPA is no obstacle to anything. Challenge Labour to vote for a dissolution, and they almost certainly will. Firstly, they'll look frit if they don't, and secondly both the SNP and Lib Dems will vote for a dissolution and accuse Labour of passing on the chance to take down the hated Tories (and Hard Brexit into the bargain) if they refuse to follow suit. The key plank of SNP strategy, to entrench themselves permanently as the natural party of Government in Edinburgh, is to supplant and kill Scottish Labour, and this would get them another step closer to doing it.

Even failing a two-thirds supermajority, all May has to do is resign as PM and wait a fortnight. She probably wouldn't even have to vacate Number 10, as she would presumably be left in office as caretaker PM: no alternative Government that could command a Commons majority for a vote of confidence is possible (even the most ultra pro-EU Tory rebels aren't likely to vote in a Labour-led rainbow coalition,) so there would be no alternative PM for the Queen to call.

Thus, if May is determined to have an early election, I don't see any likely scenario in which she can't force the issue, either immediately or in pretty short order.

FPT

Richard_Tyndall said:

rottenborough said:

Alanbrooke said:

tyson said:

@Richard Tyndall
Did you not see the red top headlines today? To use USA terminology there is no pathway to a soft Brexit. I doubt the EU would agree to it anyway.
People like Alastair and me.....we knew that the EU was a bit dysfunctional...but better to stay in and try and improve it. But's that all by the by. A hard Brexit it is....whatever people like you have to say about it.....

you had 40 years you didnt improve it for ordinary people

Claptrap. Europe has enjoyed its longest period of peace and prosperity in centuries.

Thank heavens for NATO and shame on some European countries for trying to undermine it.

I pour utter scorn on the EU and its sycophantic supporters for even daring to try and claim credit for either peace or prosperity in Europe.

Without the Schumann declaration and the moves to federalise industrial policy between France and West Germany the history of NATO and the Cold War would have been very different. You're only seeing half the story.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.

welcome to the party

youll enjoy not being a sheep

( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )

I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.

you havent even seen the fking manifesto

why are lawyers such drama queens ?

buy a spine - and soon

If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.

Hard Brexit being anything other than a Brexit which is Remain in all but name?

TheScreamingEagles said:

steve_garner said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.

So who would you vote for then?

I'd probably abstain

In the spirit of my new approach of not being mean...or political....possibly TSE you might have spared a thought at 2015 GE to see what a fine pickle that promise of a referendum would have got us.

Of course, you were not the only one to make that mistake........

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anyhoo, back to date night.

Play nicely and don't forget to discuss the Scottish Independence angle to (Hard) Brexit

Not going to ask how pubic lice came up.....

HYUFD said:

She will only do it if Parliament holds up triggering Article 50 beyond her deadline of March and only then if the Commons is the problem, there is little point if it is the Lords that is the problem as they could not care less if she has a majority of 300 they will still hold it up, she will have to use the Parliament Act or create more Peers to deal with them. Unless that is she goes to the country on a platform of scrapping the Lords either completely or by replacing it with an elected second chamber

It is interesting to speculate that the referendum vote to leave the EU could end up being the catalyst for wholesale modernisation of our political/democratic structures.

Not a bad outcome, in my view.

(Good evening, everyone)

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

fpt

My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

He could win.

Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo

williamglenn said:

FPT

Richard_Tyndall said:

rottenborough said:

Alanbrooke said:

tyson said:

@Richard Tyndall
Did you not see the red top headlines today? To use USA terminology there is no pathway to a soft Brexit. I doubt the EU would agree to it anyway.
People like Alastair and me.....we knew that the EU was a bit dysfunctional...but better to stay in and try and improve it. But's that all by the by. A hard Brexit it is....whatever people like you have to say about it.....

you had 40 years you didnt improve it for ordinary people

Claptrap. Europe has enjoyed its longest period of peace and prosperity in centuries.

Thank heavens for NATO and shame on some European countries for trying to undermine it.

I pour utter scorn on the EU and its sycophantic supporters for even daring to try and claim credit for either peace or prosperity in Europe.

Without the Schumann declaration and the moves to federalise industrial policy between France and West Germany the history of NATO and the Cold War would have been very different. You're only seeing half the story.

Stupid statement. Any number of issues could have shaped NATO and the Cold War.

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.

I thought you voted tactically for the LDs in Sheffield Hallam in 2015?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.

welcome to the party

youll enjoy not being a sheep

( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )

I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.

you havent even seen the fking manifesto

why are lawyers such drama queens ?

buy a spine - and soon

If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.

I am sure you could sell the LD manifesto perfectly well

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.

I thought you voted tactically for the LDs in Sheffield Hallam in 2015?

I was going to do so, but then Nick Clegg said he might support a Labour/SNP government.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MP_SE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.

welcome to the party

youll enjoy not being a sheep

( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )

I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.

you havent even seen the fking manifesto

why are lawyers such drama queens ?

buy a spine - and soon

If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.

Hard Brexit being anything other than a Brexit which is Remain in all but name?

No, the vision of Brexit the likes of SeanT, Richard Tyndall, Robert, and Max (who all voted Leave) have articulated is something I could live with.

which is probably the Brexit of 70+% of Leavers

why you remainers keep winding yourselves up in self righteous froth is beyond us

somebody shag Meeks he needs it

538 have switched Florida and North Carolina into the Trump slot and Nevada as a dead heat, leaving just New Hampshire in the fragile firewall. The slightly good news for those of us who would pass on another "interesting" election result is that Clinton is doing better in the polls that were canvassed into November than those from the end of last week.

FF43 said:

538 have switched Florida and North Carolina into the Trump slot and Nevada as a dead heat, leaving just New Hampshire in the fragile firewall. The slightly good news for those of us who would pass on another "interesting" election result is that Clinton is doing better in the polls that were canvassed into November than those from the end of last week.

Does not help that from her schedule it seems she is looking to spend half of the weekend in bed while Trump's schedule suggests he may not have much time for any sleep at all over the next 72 hours. This reminds me of 2000 where Gore campaigned almost non-stop over the last few days while Bush went home for a rest for part of the time, coupled with Bush's drink driving conviction (see Hillary's emails) Gore won the popular vote. I can see Trump eking out a win in the popular vote even if he falls short in the EC

AlastairMeeks said:

Tsk, only today the WTW Leavers were accusing Stephen Phillips of being a LINO. It's so difficult keeping track of the cross currents.

I assumed that meant 'Lawyer In Name Only'. Did I get hold of the wrong end of the stick?

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Tsk, only today the WTW Leavers were accusing Stephen Phillips of being a LINO. It's so difficult keeping track of the cross currents.

I assumed that meant 'Lawyer In Name Only'. Did I get hold of the wrong end of the stick?

He did 1700 chargeable hours so clearly you did.

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Tsk, only today the WTW Leavers were accusing Stephen Phillips of being a LINO. It's so difficult keeping track of the cross currents.

I assumed that meant 'Lawyer In Name Only'. Did I get hold of the wrong end of the stick?

I thought he was a Bregretter.

NoEasyDay said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MP_SE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.

welcome to the party

youll enjoy not being a sheep

( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )

I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.

you havent even seen the fking manifesto

why are lawyers such drama queens ?

buy a spine - and soon

If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.

Hard Brexit being anything other than a Brexit which is Remain in all but name?

No, the vision of Brexit the likes of SeanT, Richard Tyndall, Robert, and Max (who all voted Leave) have articulated is something I could live with.

which is probably the Brexit of 70+% of Leavers

why you remainers keep winding yourselves up in self righteous froth is beyond us

somebody shag Meeks he needs it

Horrid thougth.

In your dreams sweetheart.

SeanT said:

Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.

Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.

A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.

Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...

MonikerDiCanio said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

fpt

My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

He could win.

Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo

Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Tsk, only today the WTW Leavers were accusing Stephen Phillips of being a LINO. It's so difficult keeping track of the cross currents.

I assumed that meant 'Lawyer In Name Only'. Did I get hold of the wrong end of the stick?

Surely leaver in name only. He represented a solid leave constituency and would have had a real problem supporting remain

He is also reported to earn £750, 000 pa as a QC representing some 212 days work pa.

On the assumption a fully committed leave conservative stands and gets elected the constituency will have a full time MP and TM a committed leaver

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On the assumption a fully committed leave conservative stands and gets elected the constituency will have a full time MP and TM a committed leaver

But SeanT reckons a half-hearted leave Conservative candidate is the "logical" outcome

On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.

There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

fpt

My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

He could win.

Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo

Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania

Kellyanne Conway was making a similar point on Fox. Incidentally, if Trump wins, she'll probably be the most in demand political consultant in the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mxwG2X89_0

Yes, there is plenty left to run in this election yet

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.

There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.

I wouldn't waste an election on Brexit is Brexit. I'd use it to get support of the position I wanted to tie up with Brussels.

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.

There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.

Cameron may be a more natural PM but it was his failure to win the referendum which led to the May premiership and May is more in tune with Tory voters and members than he was

HYUFD said:

May is more in tune with Tory voters and members than he was

Members maybe. Voters, not so much.

The same problem as Corbyn, if not as severe

HYUFD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.

There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.

Cameron may be a more natural PM but it was his failure to win the referendum which led to the May premiership and May is more in tune with Tory voters and members than he was

And the wider electorate

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.

There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.

May is doing a Brown 2007

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

fpt

My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

He could win.

Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo

Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania

The polls would suggest they should be worried about Pennsylvania. Their average lead is down to about 2.6 points.

The more credible explanation for PA is that it's a relatively close contest - and doesn't have early voting, so a final rally there makes sense, worry or not.

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.

There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.

That is a very good post Richard...



Personally, I cannot see why the hell Theresa would want all this crap to be honest. She's glamorous, she obviously enjoys shopping, her husband looks to be a very nice man, and they seem to have a good relationship...she has a chronic health condition, and could possibly have at best maybe 10 years of good quality life which she could spend at her leisure....

Why in god's name would she want a job where she possibly has to speak to Liam Fox most days, and if she gets a day away from Liam Fox, then it's David David. I think Boris probably isn't hard work....but those first two certainly are.

Is Theresa PM for her own ego? I don't know. Hillary clearly has some ego issues that she needs to vanquish by being POTUS....but the lovely Theresa? I don't know.

HYUFD said:

619 said:

HYUFD said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

fpt

My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

He could win.

Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo

Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania

hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.

Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?

Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble

If she loses Pennsylvania the gig's up. If she wins that but not Florida she is probably, but not definitely, OK. Ohio is lost to her already. She has to a final stop somewhere. Pennsylvania is as good a place as any.

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look.

Until it got hard and he bailed