I could see Hillary hanging onto Florida by the skin of her teeth with her celeb fuelled final week but losing the EC.
If Trump wins NV, CO, IA, OH, PA, NC and NH he gets to 269, which as set out below means he is probably elected president, so there is a pathway even if he loses Florida but it requires him to sweep the board elsewhere. If he added Wisconsin where he is doing a rally too this weekend he wins it outright 279 to 259
I don't think that May's position is as complex as is made out. I think she gets that she needs to regain some measure of control over the borders, which rules out permanent accession to the EEA because of the EU's fundamentalist position on the free movement of people. So all she has to do is say that the end point of the process is that Britain has to be out of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and say that nothing else (e.g. an application to re-join EFTA, and transitional membership of the EEA for a fixed time period,) is definitively ruled in or out. Which is entirely reasonable, because (a) she doesn't want to reveal her entire negotiating position to the EU, and (b) she can't absolutely promise to deliver any outcome to which the other party has to agree.
... ... ...
That's Hard Brexit in practice - ie exit with agreeing anything much with the EU - and I think over the course of the campaign it be laid bare as such. Last week her government gave assurances to Nissan that they would keep them in the EU regime. You can be sure Nissan and others will pitch in during the campaign
She will take a requirement that EU citizens have to have a job offer to the EU and try and get whatever trade deal she can based on that
In practice I'm not sure that red line would achieve much except presentationally because people could still enter as tourists for up to 3 months, get their job offer, and then they'd qualify for their NI number and whatever other residency requirements we'd need. The benefits system is the real thorny issue.
Implementing what Cameron already achieved on the benefits issue, 4 year wait until EU migrants can claim in work benefits like: working tax credit, housing benefit, child tax credits etc, is a must.
"23:36 A Democratic elector in Washington state said Friday he won’t vote for Hillary Clinton even if she wins the popular vote in his state on Election Day, adding a degree of suspense when the Electoral College affirms the election results next month, reports the Associated Press."
Faithless electors. In reality if it makes any difference it will be worked out.
If Trump wins NH he could get to 269 even without Pennsylvania or Colorado, Hillary would also be on 269 so if that elector does not vote for Hillary then Trump is elected President
Only if the faithless elector votes for Trump. Otherwise it goes to the House (which would *probably* elect Trump).
Presuming the GOP retain the House which is likely, yes
Presuming they retain a majority of states in the House. (And I'm still not sure how or whether a state will vote in the House if its delegation is evenly split.)
"23:36 A Democratic elector in Washington state said Friday he won’t vote for Hillary Clinton even if she wins the popular vote in his state on Election Day, adding a degree of suspense when the Electoral College affirms the election results next month, reports the Associated Press."
Faithless electors. In reality if it makes any difference it will be worked out.
If Trump wins NH he could get to 269 even without Pennsylvania or Colorado, Hillary would also be on 269 so if that elector does not vote for Hillary then Trump is elected President
Only if the faithless elector votes for Trump. Otherwise it goes to the House (which would *probably* elect Trump).
Presuming the GOP retain the House which is likely, yes
Presuming they retain a majority of states in the House. (And I'm still not sure how or whether a state will vote in the House if its delegation is evenly split.)
Almost certainly, the Democrats are only competitive in the House because they win a lot of districts in big states like New York, Illinois and California. Goodnight
If she's secretly quite keen, then she's lying in her teeth when she flatly denies it, which doesn't seem her usual style.
Disagree, she lies all the time. She doesn't only lie to get out of trouble either - for example she included a bogus story about someone who couldn't be deported because they had a cat in her conference speech.
For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?
The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.
I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
And, I might not vote Labour if Labour does not come unambiguously to soften Brexit.
Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.
A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.
Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
Yes. The Tory will win. The Tories are on 43% in the polls, UKIP on 12%. The one way TMay could seize defeat from victory is by adopting UKIP Hard Brexit policies.
Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.
A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.
Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
Yes. The Tory will win. The Tories are on 43% in the polls, UKIP on 12%. The one way TMay could seize defeat from victory is by adopting UKIP Hard Brexit policies.
Tories are on 41% with YouGov!
36% is enough to win these days as we saw with Blair and Cameron. Over 40% would be a landslide in seats.
Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.
A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.
Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
Yes. The Tory will win. The Tories are on 43% in the polls, UKIP on 12%. The one way TMay could seize defeat from victory is by adopting UKIP Hard Brexit policies.
Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.
A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.
Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
Yes. The Tory will win. The Tories are on 43% in the polls, UKIP on 12%. The one way TMay could seize defeat from victory is by adopting UKIP Hard Brexit policies.
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.
There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
May is doing a Brown 2007
You know something.....the very lovely Theresa may well be lying wide awake in the middle of the night...which if she isn't she's not human.....and she might be well thinking...what the hell? And guess what...Cameron and Osborne are sleeping better than they have for years....
Sometimes we place far too much on our politicians..they are people like us. Well apart from Corbyn who is made from some sort of 70's socialist kryptonite that seems impervious to anything...
Corbo is an anti-; it is a lot easier to oppose than propose, to object than project or to correct than build.
May is respected.
Scott and Paste might not get it - but she is a lot more popular in the country than Cameron and Osborne could ever be.
She wins a general because she turns Toryism into an every day brand more than anyone since Thatcher, and because of that she'll get her way on Brexit.
It's a conundrum. Theresa May is deeply mediocre
and yet has 'Best PM' ratings consistently 5 points or more ahead of Cameron's best ever scores in YouGOV - against a similarly poor LotO.......
Reminds me of another PM, consistently run down by male commentators in her early years.....
Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.
A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.
Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
Yes. The Tory will win. The Tories are on 43% in the polls, UKIP on 12%. The one way TMay could seize defeat from victory is by adopting UKIP Hard Brexit policies.
Tories are on 41% with YouGov!
36% is enough to win these days as we saw with Blair and Cameron. Over 40% would be a landslide in seats.
Depends how you define a landslide! This week's YouGov poll giving the Tories 41% and Labour 27% would imply a majority of circa 74. Certainly a good win - but well short of Thatcher's 83 & 87 victories or Blair's margins in 97 & 2001.
Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.
A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.
Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
Yes. The Tory will win. The Tories are on 43% in the polls, UKIP on 12%. The one way TMay could seize defeat from victory is by adopting UKIP Hard Brexit policies.
Tories are on 41% with YouGov!
And 43 with ICM, and 47 wot MORI.. your point?
Mori is a few weeks old and pretty clearly an outlier.
On topic - not sure the sub-headline is supported by the article.
'Cabinet discusses spring vote' implies there have been discussions in the Cabinet.
It appears from the body text that some (one, two?) Cabinet members have 'discussed' (what does that mean - lengthy conversation, or throw-away remark?) going in the spring......
As the late Michael Winner would have said...'Calm down, dear...'
Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.
A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.
Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
Yes. The Tory will win. The Tories are on 43% in the polls, UKIP on 12%. The one way TMay could seize defeat from victory is by adopting UKIP Hard Brexit policies.
Tories are on 41% with YouGov!
36% is enough to win these days as we saw with Blair and Cameron. Over 40% would be a landslide in seats.
Cameron managed 37% in 2010 and failed to win a majority.
Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.
A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.
Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
Yes. The Tory will win. The Tories are on 43% in the polls, UKIP on 12%. The one way TMay could seize defeat from victory is by adopting UKIP Hard Brexit policies.
Tories are on 41% with YouGov!
And 43 with ICM, and 47 wot MORI.. your point?
Mori is a few weeks old and pretty clearly an outlier.
Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.
A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.
Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
Yes. The Tory will win. The Tories are on 43% in the polls, UKIP on 12%. The one way TMay could seize defeat from victory is by adopting UKIP Hard Brexit policies.
Tories are on 41% with YouGov!
And 43 with ICM, and 47 wot MORI.. your point?
Mori is a few weeks old and pretty clearly an outlier.
Outliers are indeed in the eye of the beholder
Well I don't think any other poll has had the Tories higher than 43% recently and others have them on 40%.
Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.
A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.
Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
Yes. The Tory will win. The Tories are on 43% in the polls, UKIP on 12%. The one way TMay could seize defeat from victory is by adopting UKIP Hard Brexit policies.
Tories are on 41% with YouGov!
36% is enough to win these days as we saw with Blair and Cameron. Over 40% would be a landslide in seats.
Cameron managed 37% in 2010 and failed to win a majority.
For those planning to burn the midnight oil and watch the US election results next Tuesday night, remember that in the USA Daylight Saving Time ends this weekend, and clocks go back one hour to Standard Time.
Tim - so, who's you gut telling you it will be? Last week I was thoroughly convinced that Hillary had this in the bag by a big margin, but now my gut is telling me Trump may just sneak this in the final days ...
Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.
A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.
Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
Yes. The Tory will win. The Tories are on 43% in the polls, UKIP on 12%. The one way TMay could seize defeat from victory is by adopting UKIP Hard Brexit policies.
Tories are on 41% with YouGov!
And 43 with ICM, and 47 wot MORI.. your point?
Mori is a few weeks old and pretty clearly an outlier.
Outliers are indeed in the eye of the beholder
Well I don't think any other poll has had the Tories higher than 43% recently and others have them on 40%.
Yeah, probably better to consider all polls, rather than just picking one out as an example. Who says the YouGov one isn't wrong too?
Looks like the average on the wiki chart is about 42% right now.
If Clinton wins Florida that's the election over for me, she'll have a bare minimum of 297, and probably quite a bit into the 300s. Ditto North Carolina - just too many ECVs for Trump to make up elsewhere.
So, give Trump both of those, and OH+IA+AZ. That leaves him on 259. NV+NH gives him 10 for a tie, and ME2 can take him over the edge. Wisconsin is another possible for 10, but I doubt that's in play in a really tight election.
Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.
A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.
Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
Yes. The Tory will win. The Tories are on 43% in the polls, UKIP on 12%. The one way TMay could seize defeat from victory is by adopting UKIP Hard Brexit policies.
Tories are on 41% with YouGov!
And 43 with ICM, and 47 wot MORI.. your point?
Mori is a few weeks old and pretty clearly an outlier.
Outliers are indeed in the eye of the beholder
Well I don't think any other poll has had the Tories higher than 43% recently and others have them on 40%.
Yeah, probably better to consider all polls, rather than just picking one out as an example. Who says the YouGov one isn't wrong too?
Looks like the average on the wiki chart is about 42% right now.
Yes - though I personally would not expect them to poll as high as 40% were an election to actually occur.
No delay on EU exit: PM reacts as 99% of Express readers say they feel 'betrayed'
99 per cent of Daily Express readers who responded to a phone poll in their thousands agreed that the High Court ruling blocking Brexit was “a scandalous betrayal” of the British people.
Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017 despite Brexit legal defeat Poll fever has gripped Westminster again but our Political Editor explains why it isn’t going to happen
Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.
A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.
Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
Yes. The Tory will win. The Tories are on 43% in the polls, UKIP on 12%. The one way TMay could seize defeat from victory is by adopting UKIP Hard Brexit policies.
Tories are on 41% with YouGov!
And 43 with ICM, and 47 wot MORI.. your point?
Mori is a few weeks old and pretty clearly an outlier.
Outliers are indeed in the eye of the beholder
Well I don't think any other poll has had the Tories higher than 43% recently and others have them on 40%.
They were on 47% a couple of weeks ago with Ipsos MORI.
Well there's a surprise! Public schoolboy with sense of entitlement feels thwarted so decides to focus on £750,000/year main job.....saves him having to commute to Lincolnshire too, which must have been such a chore......
No delay on EU exit: PM reacts as 99% of Express readers say they feel 'betrayed'
99 per cent of Daily Express readers who responded to a phone poll in their thousands agreed that the High Court ruling blocking Brexit was “a scandalous betrayal” of the British people.
I cant help feeling that if Sir Keir Starmee was leading the Labour Party, that the Tories would be looking down the barrel of a gun. The frankly disgraceful headlines in most of the off shore owned UK media seem to have outraged a lot more than the "Establishment elite". I think the backlash to the backlash is in any event going to harm Theresa May quite badly in the longer term. Personally I am so disgusted with the feral press and their extremist anger, that I would even vote Corbyn tactically to punish the Tories for the damage they have already done to the country.
Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017 despite Brexit legal defeat Poll fever has gripped Westminster again but our Political Editor explains why it isn’t going to happen
The wish to avoid a split in the Tory party and the usefulness of having the threat of a ge in the bag seem sound, although I'm not sold on not knowing what type of Brexit she wants. On one hand we're supposed to accept she is this very prepared, determined and decisive person, and on the other she still doesn't know what she wants? I think it likely she knows exactly what she wants, or rather she has made a judgement as to what she feels the best deal she can sell to the party is, and needs further time to prepare the way, rather than she hasn't made up her mind.
I cant help feeling that if Sir Keir Starmee was leading the Labour Party, that the Tories would be looking down the barrel of a gun. The frankly disgraceful headlines in most of the off shore owned UK media seem to have outraged a lot more than the "Establishment elite". I think the backlash to the backlash is in any event going to harm Theresa May quite badly in the longer term. Personally I am so disgusted with the feral press and their extremist anger, that I would even vote Corbyn tactically to punish the Tories for the damage they have already done to the country.
If it's damage arising from Brexit chaos, I'm afraid it wasn't just the Tories who did that it was tons of labour and lib dem voters too. Which is not to say the headlines have not been bloody silly, as they have been even accepting no one expects a headline to summarise a legal judgement very well, but free press and speech will always entail the acceptance of a certain level of worthless and opprobrious commentary. You may also find corbynites are hardly good examples of avoiding extremist anger.
But it's not easy to know who to vote for thesedays admittedly. Best hope you have really nice, effective constituency MP I guess.
Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017 despite Brexit legal defeat Poll fever has gripped Westminster again but our Political Editor explains why it isn’t going to happen
A convincing case in this article as to why a 2017 GE won't happen.
The economic point is the one I made here yesterday.
The Sun's point about May needing to hold onto the GE option in case things get really tough in parliament as the moment of truth with the deal (or no deal) approaches in 2019 is particularly strong.
Plus the risk of further splits in the Tory Party, and May's reluctance (or inability) to set out her approach to Brexit - surely also why she seems set on pursuing what looks like a poor legal case to the bitter end - altogether making the lay 2017 GE bet look potential value (only tiny amounts of money to match on Betfair, at 2.4-2.7, but if election chatter continues the money should grow) look potential value.
I see that the Welsh Government has now decided to join (i.e. its lawyer will join) the Brexit legal case, on the complainants' side, and the Scottish Government, which has its lawyers observing the case, is likely to consider doing the same next week.
Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017 despite Brexit legal defeat Poll fever has gripped Westminster again but our Political Editor explains why it isn’t going to happen
A convincing case in this article as to why a 2017 GE won't happen.
There is much hysteria about at the moment - reminds me of the early days of the coalition ("GE by October" we were confidently assured) and going further back, early days of Thatcher ('divisive, not up to it')....May also will have seen this and also know the voters don't like being asked to answer the same questions again because politicians can't get their acts together.
Yesterday, the normally level headed TSE was repeating a rumour that the former AG, Dominic Grieve had resigned - instead it was an overlooked backbencher no one had heard of - until yesterday......
Michael Winner should be with us at this hour.....
Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017 despite Brexit legal defeat Poll fever has gripped Westminster again but our Political Editor explains why it isn’t going to happen
They don't mention the most important one which is that Corbyn looks safe until the next general election, but after that she may face opposition. Why risk ending the free ride earlier than necessary?
There is also a chunk of money on Betfair waiting to be matched with a bet that there won't be a general election in 2016, at 1.02. A near guaranteed 2% return in just two months looks very attractive.
Sleaford probably offers UKIP an opportunity to recover from its current woes that is ironically similar to the opportunity the LibDems have in Richmond. If Suzanne Evans from the sensible wing of the party gets to (i.e. is allowed to) stand, I'd say they have a chance, particularly if the tabloids continue stirring up the leavers. The question is whether Farage and Banks would want to risk giving her such a high profile platform with the risk, if she wins, that they double up on the Carswell problem.
I cant help feeling that if Sir Keir Starmee was leading the Labour Party, that the Tories would be looking down the barrel of a gun. The frankly disgraceful headlines in most of the off shore owned UK media seem to have outraged a lot more than the "Establishment elite". I think the backlash to the backlash is in any event going to harm Theresa May quite badly in the longer term. Personally I am so disgusted with the feral press and their extremist anger, that I would even vote Corbyn tactically to punish the Tories for the damage they have already done to the country.
If it's damage arising from Brexit chaos, I'm afraid it wasn't just the Tories who did that it was tons of labour and lib dem voters too. Which is not to say the headlines have not been bloody silly, as they have been even accepting no one expects a headline to summarise a legal judgement very well, but free press and speech will always entail the acceptance of a certain level of worthless and opprobrious commentary. You may also find corbynites are hardly good examples of avoiding extremist anger.
But it's not easy to know who to vote for thesedays admittedly. Best hope you have really nice, effective constituency MP I guess.
I don't think the 'tons of labour and LibDem voters' line will wash, in the long run - it was Tory MPs, the Tory press, and mostly Tory defectors to UKIP, that kept stirring up the EU issue for years, it was the Tories who gave us what history will probably see as an unnecessary referendum, and it was almost all Tories, plus Farage, who were the big players in the leave campaign. In years to come Hoey and Stuart will be forgotten. Everyone knows that without Tory opposition to EU we would not be where we are,
The Tory Party is hence tied to Brexit, and its fortunes tied to how things transpire. This will give Tory remainers (and any LINOs) a problem (yesterday's resignation perhaps being an early sign) and I would expect a slow realignment to take place, particularly as the career prospects for getting selected, and preferred thereafter, for Tory remainers will be pretty bleak until the EU issue is behind us, which won't be for at least five years and potentially longer. Whilst there has been focus on Labour members desire for MPs that better reflect the party (members), I would expect the pressure to be at least as strong within the Conservatives.
Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017 despite Brexit legal defeat Poll fever has gripped Westminster again but our Political Editor explains why it isn’t going to happen
I think you're right Carlotta. Mike Smithton's right to raise this and to keep raising it because this is a betting site but for the reasons T N-D sets out I don't think Theresa May will try to call one in 2017 (we have to put 'try to' because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act). The problem really is that a GE in 2017 would probably become Referendum Mk II and that's perilous territory when at the moment so much is up in the air. Why let Labour have a sniff when they are still in electoral self-destruct?
Added to all of these reasons, I think May is a cautious operator. She's risk averse.
Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017 despite Brexit legal defeat Poll fever has gripped Westminster again but our Political Editor explains why it isn’t going to happen
I think you're right Carlotta. Mike Smithton's right to raise this and to keep raising it because this is a betting site but for the reasons T N-D sets out I don't think Theresa May will try to call one in 2017 (we have to put 'try to' because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act). The problem really is that a GE in 2017 would probably become Referendum Mk II and that's perilous territory when at the moment so much is up in the air. Why let Labour have a sniff when they are still in electoral self-destruct?
Added to all of these reasons, I think May is a cautious operator. She's risk averse.
The FTPA doesn't prevent a party with a majority voting for an election, only one with a minority.
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look.
Until it got hard and he bailed
Cameron was never for the long term. Like you say for him it was a gig. Makes me so angry these upper class twits can come in and twat about for there own ambitions and actually not give a fuck about those they are meant to represent.
David Cameron was the fourth-longest serving leader of the Conservative Party in the last 100 years.
Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017 despite Brexit legal defeat Poll fever has gripped Westminster again but our Political Editor explains why it isn’t going to happen
They don't mention the most important one which is that Corbyn looks safe until the next general election, but after that she may face opposition. Why risk ending the free ride earlier than necessary?
My sense is that Corbyn is becoming less secure with every day. It has not been covered much, but Momentum is now in full meltdown as the far left, yet again, begins to eat itself.
This has implications for the NEC and, more importantly, for Corbyn's standing among the trade unions. If needs be, rules can be created and amended to engineer a new leadership election. If we do end up with a general election in 2020, the likelihood that it will be may and Corbyn decreases with every huge Tory opinion poll lead.
Well there's a surprise! Public schoolboy with sense of entitlement feels thwarted so decides to focus on £750,000/year main job.....saves him having to commute to Lincolnshire too, which must have been such a chore......
Has there ever been an MP from any party whose resignation has not been greeted with stories seeking to make him/her look as bad as possible. I guess it is part of the ritual.
Sleaford: UKIP should run a candidate who is happy to denounce the 16m of us who voted to Remain as traitors who should be hanged & hanged high. Because if they don't, someone else will.
Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017 despite Brexit legal defeat Poll fever has gripped Westminster again but our Political Editor explains why it isn’t going to happen
The wish to avoid a split in the Tory party and the usefulness of having the threat of a ge in the bag seem sound, although I'm not sold on not knowing what type of Brexit she wants. On one hand we're supposed to accept she is this very prepared, determined and decisive person, and on the other she still doesn't know what she wants? I think it likely she knows exactly what she wants, or rather she has made a judgement as to what she feels the best deal she can sell to the party is, and needs further time to prepare the way, rather than she hasn't made up her mind.
Yep - the PM will always put party before country. It's not what is best for the UK that she is interested in, but what stands the best chance of keeping the Tories together and her in office.
Well there's a surprise! Public schoolboy with sense of entitlement feels thwarted so decides to focus on £750,000/year main job.....saves him having to commute to Lincolnshire too, which must have been such a chore......
Has there ever been an MP from any party whose resignation has not been greeted with stories seeking to make him/her look as bad as possible. I guess it is part of the ritual.
To be fair, it's not like anyone's having to dig very deeply to find them. He's no loss to Parliament.
Both RealClearPolitics and 538 have Trump one state away from winning the election with their prediction models. With RCP it's Florida, with 538 Pennsylvania.
Angus MacNeil, one of Ms Sturgeon's most senior MPs and the chair of Westminster's International Trade Committee which will have a vital role as Brexit approaches, refused to confirm how he had voted in the EU referendum leading to speculation that he had also backed withdrawal.
Contacted by The Herald and asked whether he was willing to say how he voted, he replied: "No, not really, no... I don't think I'm going to say anything." Pushed over whether he would reveal if he voted Leave or Remain, he said: "I'm not going to say anything at the moment."
The Conservatives moved quickly to take advantage of the discord in the SNP, which has developed a formidable reputation for keeping a lid on dissent.
Adam Tomkins, the party’s constitution spokesman, said: “We know that voting Leave is still considered a thought-crime by the SNP leadership.
“Alex Neil has now broken his own four-month silence. Those SNP MSPs who backed Leave now need to show some gumption and explain their actions. The SNP’s silent Brexiteers need to come forward openly and let their constituents know how they voted.”
Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017 despite Brexit legal defeat Poll fever has gripped Westminster again but our Political Editor explains why it isn’t going to happen
They don't mention the most important one which is that Corbyn looks safe until the next general election, but after that she may face opposition. Why risk ending the free ride earlier than necessary?
My sense is that Corbyn is becoming less secure with every day. It has not been covered much, but Momentum is now in full meltdown as the far left, yet again, begins to eat itself.
This has implications for the NEC and, more importantly, for Corbyn's standing among the trade unions. If needs be, rules can be created and amended to engineer a new leadership election. If we do end up with a general election in 2020, the likelihood that it will be may and Corbyn decreases with every huge Tory opinion poll lead.
Has Momentum ever been that important to Corbyn? I get the impression that it has benefitted from him much more than he has benefitted from it.
I see it took less than 24 hours for the remainer MP's to show their true colours. Moving from "a bill to approve submission of article 50 will easily pass through parliament" to " we will vote down any motion unless we see the UK's negotiating position that we agree with "
Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017 despite Brexit legal defeat Poll fever has gripped Westminster again but our Political Editor explains why it isn’t going to happen
They don't mention the most important one which is that Corbyn looks safe until the next general election, but after that she may face opposition. Why risk ending the free ride earlier than necessary?
My sense is that Corbyn is becoming less secure with every day. It has not been covered much, but Momentum is now in full meltdown as the far left, yet again, begins to eat itself.
This has implications for the NEC and, more importantly, for Corbyn's standing among the trade unions. If needs be, rules can be created and amended to engineer a new leadership election. If we do end up with a general election in 2020, the likelihood that it will be may and Corbyn decreases with every huge Tory opinion poll lead.
Has Momentum ever been that important to Corbyn? I get the impression that it has benefitted from him much more than he has benefitted from it.
Small membership, very large database. It's the latter that has been extremely useful to Corbyn.
I see it took less than 24 hours for the remainer MP's to show their true colours. Moving from "a bill to approve submission of article 50 will easily pass through parliament" to " we will vote down any motion unless we see the UK's negotiating position that we agree with "
No delay on EU exit: PM reacts as 99% of Express readers say they feel 'betrayed'
99 per cent of Daily Express readers who responded to a phone poll in their thousands agreed that the High Court ruling blocking Brexit was “a scandalous betrayal” of the British people.
How can a General Election be of the "snap" variety if it is being planned 4 months in advance?
That is, I'm afraid, symptomatic of this government's speed of action. The current lead story on the BBC website is "PM urged to calm Brexit court backlash", reporting on Conservative MPs' disquiet. How difficult was it for the government to get one minister to say yesterday that the government treasured the independence of the judiciary as a cornerstone of this country's freedoms and, while disagreeing with the decision, it dissociated itself from the newspapers' attacks on judges who were doing the important job that they had been asked to do? This was an entirely avoidable story.
How can a General Election be of the "snap" variety if it is being planned 4 months in advance?
That is, I'm afraid, symptomatic of this government's speed of action. The current lead story on the BBC website is "PM urged to calm Brexit court backlash", reporting on Conservative MPs' disquiet. How difficult was it for the government to get one minister to say yesterday that the government treasured the independence of the judiciary as a cornerstone of this country's freedoms and, while disagreeing with the decision, it dissociated itself from the newspapers' attacks on judges who were doing the important job that they had been asked to do? This was an entirely avoidable story.
What if they are quite happy for the judges to get a kicking ?
I see it took less than 24 hours for the remainer MP's to show their true colours. Moving from "a bill to approve submission of article 50 will easily pass through parliament" to " we will vote down any motion unless we see the UK's negotiating position that we agree with "
How can a General Election be of the "snap" variety if it is being planned 4 months in advance?
That is, I'm afraid, symptomatic of this government's speed of action. The current lead story on the BBC website is "PM urged to calm Brexit court backlash", reporting on Conservative MPs' disquiet. How difficult was it for the government to get one minister to say yesterday that the government treasured the independence of the judiciary as a cornerstone of this country's freedoms and, while disagreeing with the decision, it dissociated itself from the newspapers' attacks on judges who were doing the important job that they had been asked to do? This was an entirely avoidable story.
But if May did that she might piss off the extremist Brexiteers in Parliament and in the press that she is so clearly keen to keep onside with. The PM's overwhelming priority is herself - as it has been throughout her political career. The comparisons with Gordon Brown are extremely apt. At present she is fortunate because she has no opposition party to worry about. If that changes ...
How can a General Election be of the "snap" variety if it is being planned 4 months in advance?
That is, I'm afraid, symptomatic of this government's speed of action. The current lead story on the BBC website is "PM urged to calm Brexit court backlash", reporting on Conservative MPs' disquiet. How difficult was it for the government to get one minister to say yesterday that the government treasured the independence of the judiciary as a cornerstone of this country's freedoms and, while disagreeing with the decision, it dissociated itself from the newspapers' attacks on judges who were doing the important job that they had been asked to do? This was an entirely avoidable story.
What if they are quite happy for the judges to get a kicking ?
Then they're not just malign but stupid. In the long run the government needs to have public confidence in the impartial enforcement of its laws.
I see it took less than 24 hours for the remainer MP's to show their true colours. Moving from "a bill to approve submission of article 50 will easily pass through parliament" to " we will vote down any motion unless we see the UK's negotiating position that we agree with "
How can a General Election be of the "snap" variety if it is being planned 4 months in advance?
That is, I'm afraid, symptomatic of this government's speed of action. The current lead story on the BBC website is "PM urged to calm Brexit court backlash", reporting on Conservative MPs' disquiet. How difficult was it for the government to get one minister to say yesterday that the government treasured the independence of the judiciary as a cornerstone of this country's freedoms and, while disagreeing with the decision, it dissociated itself from the newspapers' attacks on judges who were doing the important job that they had been asked to do? This was an entirely avoidable story.
What if they are quite happy for the judges to get a kicking ?
Then they're not just malign but stupid. In the long run the government needs to have public confidence in the impartial enforcement of its laws.
The judiciary also needs to have public confidence in impartial enforcement of the law and currently with a large section of the population it does not have that confidence.
Additional note: High Court judges take a pay cut of anything up to 90% when they take on the role. They do so because of the status it confers and a sense of public duty. The British judiciary is in general of exceptionally high quality and hard working. It's part of the constitutional set-up that works exceptionally well.
How can a General Election be of the "snap" variety if it is being planned 4 months in advance?
That is, I'm afraid, symptomatic of this government's speed of action. The current lead story on the BBC website is "PM urged to calm Brexit court backlash", reporting on Conservative MPs' disquiet. How difficult was it for the government to get one minister to say yesterday that the government treasured the independence of the judiciary as a cornerstone of this country's freedoms and, while disagreeing with the decision, it dissociated itself from the newspapers' attacks on judges who were doing the important job that they had been asked to do? This was an entirely avoidable story.
What if they are quite happy for the judges to get a kicking ?
Then they're not just malign but stupid. In the long run the government needs to have public confidence in the impartial enforcement of its laws.
The judiciary also needs to have public confidence in impartial enforcement of the law and currently with a large section of the population it does not have that confidence.
Additional note: High Court judges take a pay cut of anything up to 90% when they take on the role. They do so because of the status it confers and a sense of public duty. The British judiciary is in general of exceptionally high quality and hard working. It's part of the constitutional set-up that works exceptionally well.
How can a General Election be of the "snap" variety if it is being planned 4 months in advance?
That is, I'm afraid, symptomatic of this government's speed of action. The current lead story on the BBC website is "PM urged to calm Brexit court backlash", reporting on Conservative MPs' disquiet. How difficult was it for the government to get one minister to say yesterday that the government treasured the independence of the judiciary as a cornerstone of this country's freedoms and, while disagreeing with the decision, it dissociated itself from the newspapers' attacks on judges who were doing the important job that they had been asked to do? This was an entirely avoidable story.
What if they are quite happy for the judges to get a kicking ?
Then they're not just malign but stupid. In the long run the government needs to have public confidence in the impartial enforcement of its laws.
The judiciary also needs to have public confidence in impartial enforcement of the law and currently with a large section of the population it does not have that confidence.
Additional note: High Court judges take a pay cut of anything up to 90% when they take on the role. They do so because of the status it confers and a sense of public duty. The British judiciary is in general of exceptionally high quality and hard working. It's part of the constitutional set-up that works exceptionally well.
In my little world, the loss to the EU of British judges is regarded as very damaging. Along with the Germans, they are seen as by far the best there are around - and their common law perspective is greatly valued. But they are easy targets. Even a 90% pay cut can equal well over £100,000 a year given they were almost all very highly paid QCs previously.
How can a General Election be of the "snap" variety if it is being planned 4 months in advance?
That is, I'm afraid, symptomatic of this government's speed of action. The current lead story on the BBC website is "PM urged to calm Brexit court backlash", reporting on Conservative MPs' disquiet. How difficult was it for the government to get one minister to say yesterday that the government treasured the independence of the judiciary as a cornerstone of this country's freedoms and, while disagreeing with the decision, it dissociated itself from the newspapers' attacks on judges who were doing the important job that they had been asked to do? This was an entirely avoidable story.
What if they are quite happy for the judges to get a kicking ?
Then they're not just malign but stupid. In the long run the government needs to have public confidence in the impartial enforcement of its laws.
The judiciary also needs to have public confidence in impartial enforcement of the law and currently with a large section of the population it does not have that confidence.
Additional note: High Court judges take a pay cut of anything up to 90% when they take on the role. They do so because of the status it confers and a sense of public duty. The British judiciary is in general of exceptionally high quality and hard working. It's part of the constitutional set-up that works exceptionally well.
In my little world, the loss to the EU of British judges is regarded as very damaging. Along with the Germans, they are seen as by far the best there are around - and their common law perspective is greatly valued. But they are easy targets. Even a 90% pay cut can equal well over £100,000 a year given they were almost all very highly paid QCs previously.
Nice life indexed linked pensions , easy street till retirement.
How can a General Election be of the "snap" variety if it is being planned 4 months in advance?
That is, I'm afraid, symptomatic of this government's speed of action. The current lead story on the BBC website is "PM urged to calm Brexit court backlash", reporting on Conservative MPs' disquiet. How difficult was it for the government to get one minister to say yesterday that the government treasured the independence of the judiciary as a cornerstone of this country's freedoms and, while disagreeing with the decision, it dissociated itself from the newspapers' attacks on judges who were doing the important job that they had been asked to do? This was an entirely avoidable story.
What if they are quite happy for the judges to get a kicking ?
Then they're not just malign but stupid. In the long run the government needs to have public confidence in the impartial enforcement of its laws.
The judiciary also needs to have public confidence in impartial enforcement of the law and currently with a large section of the population it does not have that confidence.
People do not like it when what they want to happen does not happen. It's one reason why an independent judiciary is so important.
Mr. Meeks, ordinary people not showing sufficient respect to judges might also be seen as the consequence of judges not showing sufficient respect to ordinary people (and the way they voted).
Not my view, but I think a lot of people will hold it.
How can a General Election be of the "snap" variety if it is being planned 4 months in advance?
That is, I'm afraid, symptomatic of this government's speed of action. The current lead story on the BBC website is "PM urged to calm Brexit court backlash", reporting on Conservative MPs' disquiet. How difficult was it for the government to get one minister to say yesterday that the government treasured the independence of the judiciary as a cornerstone of this country's freedoms and, while disagreeing with the decision, it dissociated itself from the newspapers' attacks on judges who were doing the important job that they had been asked to do? This was an entirely avoidable story.
The PM's overwhelming priority is herself - as it has been throughout her political career.
I expect that's why she took on the Police over stop & search - 'plenty of votes for me among young black men' must have been what motivated her - obviously......especially in Maidenhead.....
Additional note: High Court judges take a pay cut of anything up to 90% when they take on the role. They do so because of the status it confers and a sense of public duty. The British judiciary is in general of exceptionally high quality and hard working. It's part of the constitutional set-up that works exceptionally well.
In my little world, the loss to the EU of British judges is regarded as very damaging. Along with the Germans, they are seen as by far the best there are around - and their common law perspective is greatly valued. But they are easy targets. Even a 90% pay cut can equal well over £100,000 a year given they were almost all very highly paid QCs previously.
Nice life indexed linked pensions , easy street till retirement.
Trust me, they really don't need the money and they really do work hard.
How can a General Election be of the "snap" variety if it is being planned 4 months in advance?
That is, I'm afraid, symptomatic of this government's speed of action. The current lead story on the BBC website is "PM urged to calm Brexit court backlash", reporting on Conservative MPs' disquiet. How difficult was it for the government to get one minister to say yesterday that the government treasured the independence of the judiciary as a cornerstone of this country's freedoms and, while disagreeing with the decision, it dissociated itself from the newspapers' attacks on judges who were doing the important job that they had been asked to do? This was an entirely avoidable story.
What if they are quite happy for the judges to get a kicking ?
Then they're not just malign but stupid. In the long run the government needs to have public confidence in the impartial enforcement of its laws.
The judiciary also needs to have public confidence in impartial enforcement of the law and currently with a large section of the population it does not have that confidence.
Additional note: High Court judges take a pay cut of anything up to 90% when they take on the role. They do so because of the status it confers and a sense of public duty. The British judiciary is in general of exceptionally high quality and hard working. It's part of the constitutional set-up that works exceptionally well.
In my little world, the loss to the EU of British judges is regarded as very damaging. Along with the Germans, they are seen as by far the best there are around - and their common law perspective is greatly valued. But they are easy targets. Even a 90% pay cut can equal well over £100,000 a year given they were almost all very highly paid QCs previously.
Nice life indexed linked pensions , easy street till retirement.
Yep, without question. But these are very skilled, ferociously intelligent people who play an absolutely crucial role in settling disputes with values that can run into the tens of billions of pounds. When you get to that level you earn a lot of money.
Mr. Meeks, ordinary people not showing sufficient respect to judges might also be seen as the consequence of judges not showing sufficient respect to ordinary people (and the way they voted).
Not my view, but I think a lot of people will hold it.
I think the point is that the Government by appearing to silently endorse the hysteria wishes to undermine the integrity of the judiciary. Ordinary people will think whatever they want. Rightly so and in any case you can't stop them.
How can a General Election be of the "snap" variety if it is being planned 4 months in advance?
That is, I'm afraid, symptomatic of this government's speed of action. The current lead story on the BBC website is "PM urged to calm Brexit court backlash", reporting on Conservative MPs' disquiet. How difficult was it for the government to get one minister to say yesterday that the government treasured the independence of the judiciary as a cornerstone of this country's freedoms and, while disagreeing with the decision, it dissociated itself from the newspapers' attacks on judges who were doing the important job that they had been asked to do? This was an entirely avoidable story.
The PM's overwhelming priority is herself - as it has been throughout her political career.
I expect that's why she took on the Police over stop & search - 'plenty of votes for me among young black men' must have been what motivated her - obviously......especially in Maidenhead.....
Plenty of votes at that time among Tory MPs for taking on the police, yes.
Mr. Meeks, ordinary people not showing sufficient respect to judges might also be seen as the consequence of judges not showing sufficient respect to ordinary people (and the way they voted).
Not my view, but I think a lot of people will hold it.
I think the point is that the Government by appearing to silently endorse the hysteria wishes to undermine the integrity of the judiciary. Ordinary people will think whatever they want. Rightly so and in any case you can't stop them.
It's more that the government does not want to alienate the right wing press and its own right wing MPs.
Mr. Meeks, ordinary people not showing sufficient respect to judges might also be seen as the consequence of judges not showing sufficient respect to ordinary people (and the way they voted).
Not my view, but I think a lot of people will hold it.
I think the point is that the Government by appearing to silently endorse the hysteria wishes to undermine the integrity of the judiciary. Ordinary people will think whatever they want. Rightly so and in any case you can't stop them.
It's more that the government does not want to alienate the right wing press and its own right wing MPs.
Mr. 43, perhaps. I'm not sure whether most people care, though. They see bewigged pillars of the Establishment helping those who wish to delay, frustrate and deny the democratic result of the referendum, and are not especially concerned if the great and the good are censured.
That said, the papers may overdo things and generate sympathy for the judges (the 'openly gay' line was as baffling as it was unacceptable).
Mr. Meeks, ordinary people not showing sufficient respect to judges might also be seen as the consequence of judges not showing sufficient respect to ordinary people (and the way they voted).
Not my view, but I think a lot of people will hold it.
I think the point is that the Government by appearing to silently endorse the hysteria wishes to undermine the integrity of the judiciary. Ordinary people will think whatever they want. Rightly so and in any case you can't stop them.
It's more that the government does not want to alienate the right wing press and its own right wing MPs.
Mr. Meeks, ordinary people not showing sufficient respect to judges might also be seen as the consequence of judges not showing sufficient respect to ordinary people (and the way they voted).
Not my view, but I think a lot of people will hold it.
I think the point is that the Government by appearing to silently endorse the hysteria wishes to undermine the integrity of the judiciary. Ordinary people will think whatever they want. Rightly so and in any case you can't stop them.
It's more that the government does not want to alienate the right wing press and its own right wing MPs.
Mr. Meeks, ordinary people not showing sufficient respect to judges might also be seen as the consequence of judges not showing sufficient respect to ordinary people (and the way they voted).
Not my view, but I think a lot of people will hold it.
I think the point is that the Government by appearing to silently endorse the hysteria wishes to undermine the integrity of the judiciary. Ordinary people will think whatever they want. Rightly so and in any case you can't stop them.
It's more that the government does not want to alienate the right wing press and its own right wing MPs.
Comments
With it, she can lose North Carolina, NH, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and still win (if she keeps Colorado and Pennsylvania.)
etc, is a must.
30-days 5.0%
14-days 4.0%
7-days 2.5%
3-days 2.0%
Reminds me of another PM, consistently run down by male commentators in her early years.....
'Cabinet discusses spring vote' implies there have been discussions in the Cabinet.
It appears from the body text that some (one, two?) Cabinet members have 'discussed' (what does that mean - lengthy conversation, or throw-away remark?) going in the spring......
As the late Michael Winner would have said...'Calm down, dear...'
Looks like the average on the wiki chart is about 42% right now.
So, give Trump both of those, and OH+IA+AZ. That leaves him on 259. NV+NH gives him 10 for a tie, and ME2 can take him over the edge. Wisconsin is another possible for 10, but I doubt that's in play in a really tight election.
No delay on EU exit: PM reacts as 99% of Express readers say they feel 'betrayed'
99 per cent of Daily Express readers who responded to a phone poll in their thousands agreed that the High Court ruling blocking Brexit was “a scandalous betrayal” of the British people.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/728991/Theresa-May-pledges-delay-EU-exit-Brexit-High-Court-ruling
Seven reasons why Theresa May will not call a General Election in 2017 despite Brexit legal defeat
Poll fever has gripped Westminster again but our Political Editor explains why it isn’t going to happen
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2116964/seven-reasons-theresa-may-general-election-2017/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/04/stephen-phillips-was-furious-over-lack-of-promotion-mps-suggest/
But it's not easy to know who to vote for thesedays admittedly. Best hope you have really nice, effective constituency MP I guess.
The economic point is the one I made here yesterday.
The Sun's point about May needing to hold onto the GE option in case things get really tough in parliament as the moment of truth with the deal (or no deal) approaches in 2019 is particularly strong.
Plus the risk of further splits in the Tory Party, and May's reluctance (or inability) to set out her approach to Brexit - surely also why she seems set on pursuing what looks like a poor legal case to the bitter end - altogether making the lay 2017 GE bet look potential value (only tiny amounts of money to match on Betfair, at 2.4-2.7, but if election chatter continues the money should grow) look potential value.
Yesterday, the normally level headed TSE was repeating a rumour that the former AG, Dominic Grieve had resigned - instead it was an overlooked backbencher no one had heard of - until yesterday......
Michael Winner should be with us at this hour.....
The Tory Party is hence tied to Brexit, and its fortunes tied to how things transpire. This will give Tory remainers (and any LINOs) a problem (yesterday's resignation perhaps being an early sign) and I would expect a slow realignment to take place, particularly as the career prospects for getting selected, and preferred thereafter, for Tory remainers will be pretty bleak until the EU issue is behind us, which won't be for at least five years and potentially longer. Whilst there has been focus on Labour members desire for MPs that better reflect the party (members), I would expect the pressure to be at least as strong within the Conservatives.
Added to all of these reasons, I think May is a cautious operator. She's risk averse.
How can a General Election be of the "snap" variety if it is being planned 4 months in advance?
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/11/how-momentum-entered-crisis-zone
This has implications for the NEC and, more importantly, for Corbyn's standing among the trade unions. If needs be, rules can be created and amended to engineer a new leadership election. If we do end up with a general election in 2020, the likelihood that it will be may and Corbyn decreases with every huge Tory opinion poll lead.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Angus MacNeil, one of Ms Sturgeon's most senior MPs and the chair of Westminster's International Trade Committee which will have a vital role as Brexit approaches, refused to confirm how he had voted in the EU referendum leading to speculation that he had also backed withdrawal.
Contacted by The Herald and asked whether he was willing to say how he voted, he replied: "No, not really, no... I don't think I'm going to say anything." Pushed over whether he would reveal if he voted Leave or Remain, he said: "I'm not going to say anything at the moment."
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14845568.SNP_in_bid_to___39_gag__39__MSPs_over_Brexit_vote/
Adam Tomkins, the party’s constitution spokesman, said: “We know that voting Leave is still considered a thought-crime by the SNP leadership.
“Alex Neil has now broken his own four-month silence. Those SNP MSPs who backed Leave now need to show some gumption and explain their actions. The SNP’s silent Brexiteers need to come forward openly and let their constituents know how they voted.”
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/call-for-leave-voters-in-snp-to-own-up-dccm957m8
Shame that it has to be a snap election rather than Brexit or anything else.
Reveals the hypocrisy of the court case brought.
What do you want to do about our bet?
Oh...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37869797
https://goo.gl/images/HTujm4
Not my view, but I think a lot of people will hold it.
so nobody can say who is the majority or minority
we are in the situation where the judges are on the line as a minority of rich remainers are seeking to sandbag a referendum result they didnt like
Jon Ralston
Jon Ralston – @RalstonReports
Dems win Clark by 11,000-plus, will be ahead overall there by 72K-plus, more than 2012. May be game over in NV for GOP.
4h
Jon Ralston @RalstonReports
Uh, oh: Dems won Washoe tonight for first time in four days, end up with 1,000-vote lead overall:
Dem - 6,058
GOP - 5,820
TOTAL - 16,373
https://twitter.com/AndreiCherny/status/794675151849721856
https://twitter.com/timjhogan/status/794717095380455424
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794737005091401728
https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794745859070164992
That said, the papers may overdo things and generate sympathy for the judges (the 'openly gay' line was as baffling as it was unacceptable).