My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.
Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
she is in Ohio twice and florida once again before the election.
She is in Florida once, Ohio once, New Hampshire once and Pennsylvania once. Trump is in Florida twice, North Carolina twice, New Hampshire once, Nevada once, Colorado once, Iowa once, Wisconsin once and Pennsylvania once over the same time period (he was in Ohio today)
Never has so much froth been created on PB by so few.
Its not the despair the hurts the Remoaners, but the Hope that their time in the wilderness will be cut short.
In reality, even from Saaarf Ken, we're leaving. And neither high court judges, nor MPs, nor Lords, can in reality get in the way of that.
And we're leaving with the best deal the PM can get. Or no deal at all.
Still hold that the SC will overturn the decision, finding the necessary legal justifications within our own constitution to ease the passage of a royal prerogative.
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.
There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
May is doing a Brown 2007
You know something.....the very lovely Theresa may well be lying wide awake in the middle of the night...which if she isn't she's not human.....and she might be well thinking...what the hell? And guess what...Cameron and Osborne are sleeping better than they have for years....
Sometimes we place far too much on our politicians..they are people like us. Well apart from Corbyn who is made from some sort of 70's socialist kryptonite that seems impervious to anything...
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.
There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
Cameron may be a more natural PM but it was his failure to win the referendum which led to the May premiership and May is more in tune with Tory voters and members than he was
My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.
Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
she is in Ohio twice and florida once again before the election.
She is in Florida once, Ohio once, New Hampshire once and Pennsylvania once. Trump is in Florida twice, North Carolina twice, New Hampshire once, Nevada once, Colorado once, Iowa once, Wisconsin once and Pennsylvania once over the same time period (he was in Ohio today)
as below, she has high quality surrogates to help. He has to do all that himself.
Anyway, PA is a bit tight, but still a 75% clinton chance on 538
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.
There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
That is a very good post Richard...
Personally, I cannot see why the hell Theresa would want all this crap to be honest. She's glamorous, she obviously enjoys shopping, her husband looks to be a very nice man, and they seem to have a good relationship...she has a chronic health condition, and could possibly have at best maybe 10 years of good quality life which she could spend at her leisure....
Why in god's name would she want a job where she possibly has to speak to Liam Fox most days, and if she gets a day away from Liam Fox, then it's David David. I think Boris probably isn't hard work....but those first two certainly are.
Is Theresa PM for her own ego? I don't know. Hillary clearly has some ego issues that she needs to vanquish by being POTUS....but the lovely Theresa? I don't know.
OMG, the most sexist post I've ever read on here! Of course Theresa should just spend all her time shopping......wth?
My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Would Mrs May win such an election and would it be an endorsement of Brexit?
Of the 632 GB seats, 221 voted Remain, 15 were 50/50 and 396 voted Leave.
But the result of the election will be determined by the 120 marginals with a majority of less than 10%.
There are 42 Tory marginals that voted Remain with LibDems mainly in second place (Twickenham, Kingston, Lewes, Bath, Cardiff N, etc). LibDems are likely to win most of these seats back in an election focused on Brexit. That reduces the Tory majority by up to 24.
13 of the Labour marginals have a Leave vote of 60%+ which might be a problem for Labour if they are anti-Brexit but possibly not such a problem if they are pro a soft Brexit as many Leavers might agree with that.
So, ignoring the Corbyn effect, a Brexit based election is likely to lead to a loss of the Tory majority as many LibDems regain Tory seats and not many Labour lose seats.
So the election, in practice would be a judgement of Corbyn not of Brexit and a big risk for the Tories!
Never has so much froth been created on PB by so few.
Its not the despair the hurts the Remoaners, but the Hope that their time in the wilderness will be cut short.
In reality, even from Saaarf Ken, we're leaving. And neither high court judges, nor MPs, nor Lords, can in reality get in the way of that.
And we're leaving with the best deal the PM can get. Or no deal at all.
Still hold that the SC will overturn the decision, finding the necessary legal justifications within our own constitution to ease the passage of a royal prerogative.
You're missing the point: how to Brexit in an orderly way and without scorching the earth. It's a long time since Theresa May has said "and Brexit will be a success" but there needs to be a minimum semblance of competence.
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.
There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
May is doing a Brown 2007
You know something.....the very lovely Theresa may well be lying wide awake in the middle of the night...which if she isn't she's not human.....and she might be well thinking...what the hell? And guess what...Cameron and Osborne are sleeping better than they have for years....
Sometimes we place far too much on our politicians..they are people like us. Well apart from Corbyn who is made from some sort of 70's socialist kryptonite that seems impervious to anything...
Corbo is an anti-; it is a lot easier to oppose than propose, to object than project or to correct than build.
May is respected.
Scott and Paste might not get it - but she is a lot more popular in the country than Cameron and Osborne could ever be.
She wins a general because she turns Toryism into an every day brand more than anyone since Thatcher, and because of that she'll get her way on Brexit.
An interesting question is what Mrs May really thinks about an early election (which Labour is also assuming as a plausible contingency). If she's secretly quite keen, then she's lying in her teeth when she flatly denies it, which doesn't seem her usual style. If she's firmly against as she says, then she has a serious problems with Ministers briefing to the contrary.
An interesting question is what Mrs May really thinks about an early election (which Labour is also assuming as a plausible contingency). If she's secretly quite keen, then she's lying in her teeth when she flatly denies it, which doesn't seem her usual style. If she's firmly against as she says, then she has a serious problems with Ministers briefing to the contrary.
An interesting question is what Mrs May really thinks about an early election (which Labour is also assuming as a plausible contingency). If she's secretly quite keen, then she's lying in her teeth when she flatly denies it, which doesn't seem her usual style. If she's firmly against as she says, then she has a serious problems with Ministers briefing to the contrary.
She has a serious problem with off-message ministers. It's the least disciplined government since Major, at least.
Further thought: actually quite a bit worse than Major. His problems were mainly with backbenchers. May's problems are with her ministers
Never has so much froth been created on PB by so few.
Its not the despair the hurts the Remoaners, but the Hope that their time in the wilderness will be cut short.
In reality, even from Saaarf Ken, we're leaving. And neither high court judges, nor MPs, nor Lords, can in reality get in the way of that.
And we're leaving with the best deal the PM can get. Or no deal at all.
Still hold that the SC will overturn the decision, finding the necessary legal justifications within our own constitution to ease the passage of a royal prerogative.
You'll be happy Mortimer to know that the thread has been dominated by the remainers pushing for a hard Brexit.
And, double it....Trump is getting traction. New Hampshire is well in reach.
The world from your eyes is really good with a capital G and OOD written after it. Hard Brexit, Trump.....maybe a bit of Le Pen; Renzi losing his referendum, Merkel losing...the EU collapsing, Trump trade wars. I'm loving it.......
Watching an unbelievably unfunny BBC satirical mockumentary about Nigel Farage.
It kind of sums up why REMAIN lost.
Farage is eminently satirisable. But this fails on every level: it's obvious, boring, predictable, clumsy, patronising, adolescent, sad and gay. And not remotely funny. In short, it's shite. Like Remainers.
I commented on that the other day, even the impersonation is utter tripe. It is one of the least funny things I have seen in a long time, and you can't blame the source material!
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.
There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
May is doing a Brown 2007
You know something.....the very lovely Theresa may well be lying wide awake in the middle of the night...which if she isn't she's not human.....and she might be well thinking...what the hell? And guess what...Cameron and Osborne are sleeping better than they have for years....
Sometimes we place far too much on our politicians..they are people like us. Well apart from Corbyn who is made from some sort of 70's socialist kryptonite that seems impervious to anything...
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look.
Until it got hard and he bailed
Cameron was never for the long term. Like you say for him it was a gig. Makes me so angry these upper class twits can come in and twat about for there own ambitions and actually not give a fuck about those they are meant to represent.
My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.
Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
If she loses Pennsylvania the gig's up. If she wins that but not Florida she is probably, but not definitely, OK. Ohio is lost to her already. She has to a final stop somewhere. Pennsylvania is as good a place as any.
Maybe but given how few events she is doing over the next few days compared to Trump she is putting her eggs in a smaller basked than she needed to
'An interesting question is what Mrs May really thinks about an early election (which Labour is also assuming as a plausible contingency). If she's secretly quite keen, then she's lying in her teeth when she flatly denies it, which doesn't seem her usual style. If she's firmly against as she says, then she has a serious problems with Ministers briefing to the contrary.'
Ever heard of events changing what people think,quite a lot has happened this week ?
An interesting question is what Mrs May really thinks about an early election (which Labour is also assuming as a plausible contingency). If she's secretly quite keen, then she's lying in her teeth when she flatly denies it, which doesn't seem her usual style. If she's firmly against as she says, then she has a serious problems with Ministers briefing to the contrary.
I am sure she's not lying. I think it's more that she miscalculated, underestimating the difficulty of governing at all, let alone implementing something as difficult as Brexit, with a very small majority. And she may not yet have accepted that her own personal willpower, impressive thought it might be, isn't actually enough to overcome these problems.
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.
There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
May is doing a Brown 2007
You know something.....the very lovely Theresa may well be lying wide awake in the middle of the night...which if she isn't she's not human.....and she might be well thinking...what the hell? And guess what...Cameron and Osborne are sleeping better than they have for years....
Sometimes we place far too much on our politicians..they are people like us. Well apart from Corbyn who is made from some sort of 70's socialist kryptonite that seems impervious to anything...
Corbo is an anti-; it is a lot easier to oppose than propose, to object than project or to correct than build.
May is respected.
Scott and Paste might not get it - but she is a lot more popular in the country than Cameron and Osborne could ever be.
She wins a general because she turns Toryism into an every day brand more than anyone since Thatcher, and because of that she'll get her way on Brexit.
It's a conundrum. Theresa May is deeply mediocre, making unforced error after unforced error. But she has no serious opposition and right now the public is actively hostile to talent.
Like the old Kit Kat advert, she can't sing, she can't play, she looks awful. She'll go a long way.
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.
There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.
Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
If she loses Pennsylvania the gig's up. If she wins that but not Florida she is probably, but not definitely, OK. Ohio is lost to her already. She has to a final stop somewhere. Pennsylvania is as good a place as any.
Maybe but given how few events she is doing over the next few days compared to Trump she is putting her eggs in a smaller basked than she needed to
she is outspending him 3 to 1 on TV and has the obamas, biden, kaine and sanders doing rallys for her. She doesnt need to do 2 rallys a day
For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?
The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.
I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
An interesting question is what Mrs May really thinks about an early election (which Labour is also assuming as a plausible contingency). If she's secretly quite keen, then she's lying in her teeth when she flatly denies it, which doesn't seem her usual style. If she's firmly against as she says, then she has a serious problems with Ministers briefing to the contrary.
I've really got confidence in the Labour contingency. planning...what with Corbyn at the helm, McDonnell and Milne behind him. The 500,000 community activists changing the narrative.
In the spirit of only wanting to say positive things, I doubt Labour's contingency plans even remotely impact on Theresa's sleepless nights. She has got other things to think about.
My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.
Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
she is in Ohio twice and florida once again before the election.
She is in Florida once, Ohio once, New Hampshire once and Pennsylvania once. Trump is in Florida twice, North Carolina twice, New Hampshire once, Nevada once, Colorado once, Iowa once, Wisconsin once and Pennsylvania once over the same time period (he was in Ohio today)
as below, she has high quality surrogates to help. He has to do all that himself.
Anyway, PA is a bit tight, but still a 75% clinton chance on 538
Hillary is the candidate not her surrogates, Trump is doing a final 72 hour marathon to give himself the widest possible map to 270, Hillary seems to think she already has it almost locked up if her schedule is anything to go by
Never has so much froth been created on PB by so few.
Its not the despair the hurts the Remoaners, but the Hope that their time in the wilderness will be cut short.
In reality, even from Saaarf Ken, we're leaving. And neither high court judges, nor MPs, nor Lords, can in reality get in the way of that.
And we're leaving with the best deal the PM can get. Or no deal at all.
Still hold that the SC will overturn the decision, finding the necessary legal justifications within our own constitution to ease the passage of a royal prerogative.
You'll be happy Mortimer to know that the thread has been dominated by the remainers pushing for a hard Brexit.
And, double it....Trump is getting traction. New Hampshire is well in reach.
The world from your eyes is really good with a capital G and OOD written after it. Hard Brexit, Trump.....maybe a bit of Le Pen; Renzi losing his referendum, Merkel losing...the EU collapsing, Trump trade wars. I'm loving it.......
2017.....what a year to look forward to.....
Tyson me old mucker, projecting all your fears on to me again:
May is popular beyond the dreams of TSE's lot.
I don't want either Trump or Clinton to win; but I think Trump will because he communicates with American hopes and fears.
Renzi and Merkel will also be gone. But I wish Europe only the best. I travel there quite a lot, and we can't cope with anymore hardship in this 100 years caused by European idiocy. The solution to that is telling them the cold hard truth, not abrogating our sovereignty and hastening our national decline.
Would Mrs May win such an election and would it be an endorsement of Brexit?
Of the 632 GB seats, 221 voted Remain, 15 were 50/50 and 396 voted Leave.
But the result of the election will be determined by the 120 marginals with a majority of less than 10%.
There are 42 Tory marginals that voted Remain with LibDems mainly in second place (Twickenham, Kingston, Lewes, Bath, Cardiff N, etc). LibDems are likely to win most of these seats back in an election focused on Brexit. That reduces the Tory majority by up to 24.
13 of the Labour marginals have a Leave vote of 60%+ which might be a problem for Labour if they are anti-Brexit but possibly not such a problem if they are pro a soft Brexit as many Leavers might agree with that.
So, ignoring the Corbyn effect, a Brexit based election is likely to lead to a loss of the Tory majority as many LibDems regain Tory seats and not many Labour lose seats.
So the election, in practice would be a judgement of Corbyn not of Brexit and a big risk for the Tories!
Over 170 Labour seats voted Leave, most of them in white working class areas tailor made for UKIP, as Witney showed and Richmond will likely reinforce the LDs are not storming to victory in the minority of Tory seats which voted Remain while the majority of Tory seats which voted Leave will comfortably back her on Brexit
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.
There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
May is doing a Brown 2007
You know something.....the very lovely Theresa may well be lying wide awake in the middle of the night...which if she isn't she's not human.....and she might be well thinking...what the hell? And guess what...Cameron and Osborne are sleeping better than they have for years....
Sometimes we place far too much on our politicians..they are people like us. Well apart from Corbyn who is made from some sort of 70's socialist kryptonite that seems impervious to anything...
Corbo is an anti-; it is a lot easier to oppose than propose, to object than project or to correct than build.
May is respected.
Scott and Paste might not get it - but she is a lot more popular in the country than Cameron and Osborne could ever be.
She wins a general because she turns Toryism into an every day brand more than anyone since Thatcher, and because of that she'll get her way on Brexit.
It's a conundrum. Theresa May is deeply mediocre, making unforced error after unforced error. But she has no serious opposition and right now the public is actively hostile to talent.
Like the old Kit Kat advert, she can't sing, she can't play, she looks awful. She'll go a long way.
Just a thought, Al, but have you considered the possibility that rather than being mediocre, May is perhaps playing this exactly as the majority of people in this country want her to play it?
I'm beginning to wonder whether you have to be a provincial grammar school lad to get the political consensus nowadays. Our 'common sense' time has come again, much to metropolitan chagrin.
Never has so much froth been created on PB by so few.
Its not the despair the hurts the Remoaners, but the Hope that their time in the wilderness will be cut short.
In reality, even from Saaarf Ken, we're leaving. And neither high court judges, nor MPs, nor Lords, can in reality get in the way of that.
And we're leaving with the best deal the PM can get. Or no deal at all.
Still hold that the SC will overturn the decision, finding the necessary legal justifications within our own constitution to ease the passage of a royal prerogative.
You'll be happy Mortimer to know that the thread has been dominated by the remainers pushing for a hard Brexit.
And, double it....Trump is getting traction. New Hampshire is well in reach.
The world from your eyes is really good with a capital G and OOD written after it. Hard Brexit, Trump.....maybe a bit of Le Pen; Renzi losing his referendum, Merkel losing...the EU collapsing, Trump trade wars. I'm loving it.......
2017.....what a year to look forward to.....
Tyson me old mucker, projecting all your fears on to me again:
May is popular beyond the dreams of TSE's lot.
I don't want either Trump or Clinton to win; but I think Trump will because he communicates with American hopes and fears.
Renzi and Merkel will also be gone. But I wish Europe only the best. I travel there quite a lot, and we can't cope with anymore hardship in this 100 years caused by European idiocy. The solution to that is telling them the cold hard truth, not abrogating our sovereignty and hastening our national decline.
Mortimer...you've got a very wise head old head on those young shoulders. I'd swear you could be 80 and not a day less......
Watching an unbelievably unfunny BBC satirical mockumentary about Nigel Farage.
It kind of sums up why REMAIN lost.
Farage is eminently satirisable. But this fails on every level: it's obvious, boring, predictable, clumsy, patronising, adolescent, sad and gay. And not remotely funny. In short, it's shite. Like Remainers.
I commented on that the other day, even the impersonation is utter tripe. It is one of the least funny things I have seen in a long time, and you can't blame the source material!
It's just dreadful. It's actually watchable on an Oh my god can it get any worse basis. and yes, it keeps getting worse.
Heroically bad.
It really does say something about the BBC/liberal/Remainer mindset. They can't compute it. It is outwith their comprehension.
I'm impressed that you seem actually to have watched it. The trailer alone was enough to allocate it to the 95% of all BBC comedy that is crap basket.
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look.
Until it got hard and he bailed
Cameron was never for the long term. Like you say for him it was a gig. Makes me so angry these upper class twits can come in and twat about for there own ambitions and actually not give a fuck about those they are meant to represent.
David Cameron was the fourth-longest serving leader of the Conservative Party in the last 100 years.
My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.
Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
If she loses Pennsylvania the gig's up. If she wins that but not Florida she is probably, but not definitely, OK. Ohio is lost to her already. She has to a final stop somewhere. Pennsylvania is as good a place as any.
Maybe but given how few events she is doing over the next few days compared to Trump she is putting her eggs in a smaller basked than she needed to
she is outspending him 3 to 1 on TV and has the obamas, biden, kaine and sanders doing rallys for her. She doesnt need to do 2 rallys a day
TV advertising won't change any minds in the final days, it is about firing up your base and getting them out to vote, Trump's schedule is focused on doing that and just because you want to see Obama or Sanders does not mean you will be persuaded to vote for Hillary if she has not bothered to show up herself
For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?
The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.
I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
Here's May's problem. If she campaigned in a GE for specific brexit it's leaving her flank open to attack from either Labour/LDs or UKIP. If she campaigns saying nothing more than "Brexit means Brexit", the other parties can just literally copy her slogan exactly , and no one is any wiser.
She's likely still to win but talk of landslides is hubris.
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look.
Until it got hard and he bailed
Cameron was never for the long term. Like you say for him it was a gig. Makes me so angry these upper class twits can come in and twat about for there own ambitions and actually not give a fuck about those they are meant to represent.
David Cameron was the fourth-longest serving leader of the Conservative Party in the last 100 years.
An interesting question is what Mrs May really thinks about an early election (which Labour is also assuming as a plausible contingency). If she's secretly quite keen, then she's lying in her teeth when she flatly denies it, which doesn't seem her usual style. If she's firmly against as she says, then she has a serious problems with Ministers briefing to the contrary.
I've really got confidence in the Labour contingency. planning...what with Corbyn at the helm, McDonnell and Milne behind him. The 500,000 community activists changing the narrative.
In the spirit of only wanting to say positive things, I doubt Labour's contingency plans even remotely impact on Theresa's sleepless nights. She has got other things to think about.
With the shambles breaking out amongst the Tories, an early election does not guarantee a majority. Losing it may get May off the Brexit hook though.
It looks increasingly that she has no "cunning plan".
My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.
Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
she is in Ohio twice and florida once again before the election.
She is in Florida once, Ohio once, New Hampshire once and Pennsylvania once. Trump is in Florida twice, North Carolina twice, New Hampshire once, Nevada once, Colorado once, Iowa once, Wisconsin once and Pennsylvania once over the same time period (he was in Ohio today)
as below, she has high quality surrogates to help. He has to do all that himself.
Anyway, PA is a bit tight, but still a 75% clinton chance on 538
Hillary is the candidate not her surrogates, Trump is doing a final 72 hour marathon to give himself the widest possible map to 270, Hillary seems to think she already has it almost locked up if her schedule is anything to go by
And yet at the same time we're being told she's panicking by scheduling a final rally in PA. This constant meaningless mind reading is slightly tedious.
My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.
Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
If she loses Pennsylvania the gig's up. If she wins that but not Florida she is probably, but not definitely, OK. Ohio is lost to her already. She has to a final stop somewhere. Pennsylvania is as good a place as any.
Maybe but given how few events she is doing over the next few days compared to Trump she is putting her eggs in a smaller basked than she needed to
she is outspending him 3 to 1 on TV and has the obamas, biden, kaine and sanders doing rallys for her. She doesnt need to do 2 rallys a day
The rallies she isn't doing could make all the difference. Sitting on her arse taking it easy won't help her. Meanwhile it's being reported that unnamed US intelligence sources (!) are warning of possible terror attacks by al-Qaeda between now and election day in NYC, Virginia and Texas.
Never has so much froth been created on PB by so few.
Its not the despair the hurts the Remoaners, but the Hope that their time in the wilderness will be cut short.
In reality, even from Saaarf Ken, we're leaving. And neither high court judges, nor MPs, nor Lords, can in reality get in the way of that.
And we're leaving with the best deal the PM can get. Or no deal at all.
Still hold that the SC will overturn the decision, finding the necessary legal justifications within our own constitution to ease the passage of a royal prerogative.
You'll be happy Mortimer to know that the thread has been dominated by the remainers pushing for a hard Brexit.
And, double it....Trump is getting traction. New Hampshire is well in reach.
The world from your eyes is really good with a capital G and OOD written after it. Hard Brexit, Trump.....maybe a bit of Le Pen; Renzi losing his referendum, Merkel losing...the EU collapsing, Trump trade wars. I'm loving it.......
2017.....what a year to look forward to.....
Tyson me old mucker, projecting all your fears on to me again:
May is popular beyond the dreams of TSE's lot.
I don't want either Trump or Clinton to win; but I think Trump will because he communicates with American hopes and fears.
Renzi and Merkel will also be gone. But I wish Europe only the best. I travel there quite a lot, and we can't cope with anymore hardship in this 100 years caused by European idiocy. The solution to that is telling them the cold hard truth, not abrogating our sovereignty and hastening our national decline.
Mortimer...you've got a very wise head old head on those young shoulders. I'd swear you could be 80 and not a day less......
It's the tweed us antiquarian booksellers wear - gives us wisdom beyond the realms of PB avarice....
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.
There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
May is doing a Brown 2007
You know something.....the very lovely Theresa may well be lying wide awake in the middle of the night...which if she isn't she's not human.....and she might be well thinking...what the hell? And guess what...Cameron and Osborne are sleeping better than they have for years....
Sometimes we place far too much on our politicians..they are people like us. Well apart from Corbyn who is made from some sort of 70's socialist kryptonite that seems impervious to anything...
It's a conundrum. Theresa May is deeply mediocre, making unforced error after unforced error. But she has no serious opposition and right now the public is actively hostile to talent.
Like the old Kit Kat advert, she can't sing, she can't play, she looks awful. She'll go a long way.
Just a thought, Al, but have you considered the possibility that rather than being mediocre, May is perhaps playing this exactly as the majority of people in this country want her to play it?
I'm beginning to wonder whether you have to be a provincial grammar school lad to get the political consensus nowadays. Our 'common sense' time has come again, much to metropolitan chagrin.
Just a thought, Mort, but you don't know me at all.
She's squandering political capital on trivia. A large part of the job of Prime Minister is "smile and wave and don't bump into the furniture". She's not smiling, she's not waving and she's rustling every antimacassar in the room.
Here's May's problem. If she campaigned in a GE for specific brexit it's leaving her flank open to attack from either Labour/LDs or UKIP. If she campaigns saying nothing more than "Brexit means Brexit", the other parties can just literally copy her slogan exactly , and no one is any wiser.
She's likely still to win but talk of landslides is hubris.
To be clear, Labour will certainly not he going into the election on a Stop Brexit platform, and even unlikely the LDs will too. Most remainers now see that Soft Brexit is the potential prize , never let the perfect be the enemy of the good basically. So Tories won't be able to say that the will of the British people is being thwarted by the opposition.
On the manifesto, a big problem is that Theresa May hasn't prepared the British public for the cold reality of Brexit: Either a Hard Brexit with real consequences for jobs and people's living standards or carry on as we are, with no change on immigration and (even) less real control over our affairs. There's a choice of realities, which Mrs May doesn't seem to have faced up to herself. Would the election, which she would presumably win anyway, be the opportunity to get public buy in on one or other of these realities. Would it work or would the fudge continue?
I don't think that May's position is as complex as is made out. I think she gets that she needs to regain some measure of control over the borders, which rules out permanent accession to the EEA because of the EU's fundamentalist position on the free movement of people. So all she has to do is say that the end point of the process is that Britain has to be out of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and say that nothing else (e.g. an application to re-join EFTA, and transitional membership of the EEA for a fixed time period,) is definitively ruled in or out. Which is entirely reasonable, because (a) she doesn't want to reveal her entire negotiating position to the EU, and (b) she can't absolutely promise to deliver any outcome to which the other party has to agree.
This leaves another party or parties the space to adopt the stop Brexit position, or to campaign for the Norway model. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the Lib Dems could adopt one position, a breakaway group of Tories could take the other, and the two could operate in a non-aggression pact under a joint Europhile ticket. But my guess is that a Tory breakaway group, if such a thing ever appears, is likely to be small and only to consist of the most committed continuity Remainers. I suspect that, much as in the country at large, most MPs aren't passionately and irrevocably committed one way or another in this debate, and will have quickly reconciled themselves to implementing what the public decided.
So, if a small split is the price that has to be paid then so be it. It is likely that neither of those parties would win a large number of seats under FPTP, that at least some of the Tory splinter group's candidates would be faced down and beaten by official Tories, and that modest losses of centrist and Continuity Remain voters to the Europhile ticket would be more than offset by traditional right-wingers coming home from Ukip - especially in the very southern English seats where any challenge from said Europhiles is likely to be strongest.
There is no reason to suppose that, faced with a heavily divided cohort of opposition parties, and a Labour Party facing its own, more profound splits on the EU and much else besides, a Tory slate of hardcore leavers balanced with pragmatists couldn't win a healthy majority in a general election. With a mandate secured, May could then invoke A50 and get on with negotiations, returning to Parliament to consult at regular intervals. The arguments about exactly what form our long-term relationship with the EU ought to take will carry on for years, but hopefully once the enactment of the Brexit decision appears to be irreversible the febrile atmosphere around the topic will begin to subside.
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look.
Until it got hard and he bailed
Cameron was never for the long term. Like you say for him it was a gig. Makes me so angry these upper class twits can come in and twat about for there own ambitions and actually not give a fuck about those they are meant to represent.
David Cameron was the fourth-longest serving leader of the Conservative Party in the last 100 years.
And What did he achieve ?
Most politicians' careers end merely in failure. He was exceptional.
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look.
Until it got hard and he bailed
Cameron was never for the long term. Like you say for him it was a gig. Makes me so angry these upper class twits can come in and twat about for there own ambitions and actually not give a fuck about those they are meant to represent.
David Cameron was the fourth-longest serving leader of the Conservative Party in the last 100 years.
And What did he achieve ?
Well, he did manage to stabilise the economy, prevent chaos by holding together a coalition for five years... and bequeath the nation a once-in-a-couple-of-generations constitutional boulversement.
For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?
The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.
I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
Always knew you were a TINO!
I dont know wha t a TINO is
It's what my wife calls me...well she calls me a Tory...the INO bit doesn't even get mentioned....it irritates the hell out of me. Thankfully, no-one on pbCOM has ever accused me of being one
There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
May is doing a Brown 2007
You know something.....the very lovely Theresa may well be lying wide awake in the middle of the night...which if she isn't she's not human.....and she might be well thinking...what the hell? And guess what...Cameron and Osborne are sleeping better than they have for years....
Sometimes we place far too much on our politicians..they are people like us. Well apart from Corbyn who is made from some sort of 70's socialist kryptonite that seems impervious to anything...
It's a conundrum. Theresa May is deeply mediocre, making unforced error after unforced error. But she has no serious opposition and right now the public is actively hostile to talent.
Like the old Kit Kat advert, she can't sing, she can't play, she looks awful. She'll go a long way.
Just a thought, Al, but have you considered the possibility that rather than being mediocre, May is perhaps playing this exactly as the majority of people in this country want her to play it?
I'm beginning to wonder whether you have to be a provincial grammar school lad to get the political consensus nowadays. Our 'common sense' time has come again, much to metropolitan chagrin.
Just a thought, Mort, but you don't know me at all.
She's squandering political capital on trivia. A large part of the job of Prime Minister is "smile and wave and don't bump into the furniture". She's not smiling, she's not waving and she's rustling every antimacassar in the room.
That's not analysis beyond your personal preference.
Grammar schools are popular with Tory voters and especially swing c1s, 2s and ds.
Not quivering on Brexit is the position of most Leavers and many sensible remainers.
Perhaps the Blair/Cameroon establishment 'consensus' ceremonial PM role has gone and it's time for some proper leadership again. leadership for the whole country, not just the often narrow city view.
Both RealClearPolitics and 538 have Trump one state away from winning the election with their prediction models. With RCP it's Florida, with 538 Pennsylvania.
Both RealClearPolitics and 538 have Trump one state away from winning the election with their prediction models. With RCP it's Florida, with 538 Pennsylvania.
Add in Colorado and maybe New Hampshire and you have the states which will likely decide the election
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.
There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
That is a very good post Richard...
Personally, I cannot see why the hell Theresa would want all this crap to be honest. She's glamorous, she obviously enjoys shopping, her husband looks to be a very nice man, and they seem to have a good relationship...she has a chronic health condition, and could possibly have at best maybe 10 years of good quality life which she could spend at her leisure....
Why in god's name would she want a job where she possibly has to speak to Liam Fox most days, and if she gets a day away from Liam Fox, then it's David David. I think Boris probably isn't hard work....but those first two certainly are.
Is Theresa PM for her own ego? I don't know. Hillary clearly has some ego issues that she needs to vanquish by being POTUS....but the lovely Theresa? I don't know.
Hi tyson. That's a very funny post. You're on good form which is lucky. There's not much else to make reading about politics bearable at the moment
My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.
Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
she is in Ohio twice and florida once again before the election.
She is in Florida once, Ohio once, New Hampshire once and Pennsylvania once. Trump is in Florida twice, North Carolina twice, New Hampshire once, Nevada once, Colorado once, Iowa once, Wisconsin once and Pennsylvania once over the same time period (he was in Ohio today)
as below, she has high quality surrogates to help. He has to do all that himself.
Anyway, PA is a bit tight, but still a 75% clinton chance on 538
Hillary is the candidate not her surrogates, Trump is doing a final 72 hour marathon to give himself the widest possible map to 270, Hillary seems to think she already has it almost locked up if her schedule is anything to go by
And yet at the same time we're being told she's panicking by scheduling a final rally in PA. This constant meaningless mind reading is slightly tedious.
That is her ONE rally on the eve of polling, tomorrow Trump is doing FOUR events to Hillary's one
Both RealClearPolitics and 538 have Trump one state away from winning the election with their prediction models. With RCP it's Florida, with 538 Pennsylvania.
Add in Colorado and maybe New Hampshire and you have the states which will likely decide the election
I can't see Colorado being a decisive state. If Trump wins it he'll have already won the election elsewhere.
For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?
The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.
I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
Always knew you were a TINO!
I dont know wha t a TINO is
T(ory) In Name Only - a play on the American disparaging insult R(epublican) In Name Only - RINO and as seen here today L(eaver) In Name Only - although that will probably be soon confused with L(abour) In Name Only - and I have seen also D(emocrat) In Name Only.
I don't think that May's position is as complex as is made out. I think she gets that she needs to regain some measure of control over the borders, which rules out permanent accession to the EEA because of the EU's fundamentalist position on the free movement of people. So all she has to do is say that the end point of the process is that Britain has to be out of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and say that nothing else (e.g. an application to re-join EFTA, and transitional membership of the EEA for a fixed time period,) is definitively ruled in or out. Which is entirely reasonable, because (a) she doesn't want to reveal her entire negotiating position to the EU, and (b) she can't absolutely promise to deliver any outcome to which the other party has to agree.
... ... ...
That's Hard Brexit in practice - ie exit with agreeing anything much with the EU - and I think over the course of the campaign it be laid bare as such. Last week her government gave assurances to Nissan that they would keep them in the EU regime. You can be sure Nissan and others will pitch in during the campaign
For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?
The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.
I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
Always knew you were a TINO!
I dont know wha t a TINO is
It's what my wife calls me...well she calls me a Tory...the INO bit doesn't even get mentioned....it irritates the hell out of me. Thankfully, no-one on pbCOM has ever accused me of being one
For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?
The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.
I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
As long as you a millions more don't vote labour instead, she'd presumably get through.
"23:36 A Democratic elector in Washington state said Friday he won’t vote for Hillary Clinton even if she wins the popular vote in his state on Election Day, adding a degree of suspense when the Electoral College affirms the election results next month, reports the Associated Press."
Both RealClearPolitics and 538 have Trump one state away from winning the election with their prediction models. With RCP it's Florida, with 538 Pennsylvania.
Add in Colorado and maybe New Hampshire and you have the states which will likely decide the election
I can't see Colorado being a decisive state. If Trump wins it he'll have already won the election elsewhere.
Colorado was the state that won it for Obama in 2012.
I don't think that May's position is as complex as is made out. I think she gets that she needs to regain some measure of control over the borders, which rules out permanent accession to the EEA because of the EU's fundamentalist position on the free movement of people. So all she has to do is say that the end point of the process is that Britain has to be out of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and say that nothing else (e.g. an application to re-join EFTA, and transitional membership of the EEA for a fixed time period,) is definitively ruled in or out. Which is entirely reasonable, because (a) she doesn't want to reveal her entire negotiating position to the EU, and (b) she can't absolutely promise to deliver any outcome to which the other party has to agree.
... ... ...
That's Hard Brexit in practice - ie exit with agreeing anything much with the EU - and I think over the course of the campaign it be laid bare as such. Last week her government gave assurances to Nissan that they would keep them in the EU regime. You can be sure Nissan and others will pitch in during the campaign
She will take a requirement that EU citizens have to have a job offer to the EU and try and get whatever trade deal she can based on that
Both RealClearPolitics and 538 have Trump one state away from winning the election with their prediction models. With RCP it's Florida, with 538 Pennsylvania.
Add in Colorado and maybe New Hampshire and you have the states which will likely decide the election
I can't see Colorado being a decisive state. If Trump wins it he'll have already won the election elsewhere.
There is little difference between Colorado and Pennsylvania in the RCP poll average, it alternates between them which is closer, either would take him over the top. Based on RCP if he wins either of them he will already have won Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida
"23:36 A Democratic elector in Washington state said Friday he won’t vote for Hillary Clinton even if she wins the popular vote in his state on Election Day, adding a degree of suspense when the Electoral College affirms the election results next month, reports the Associated Press."
For those planning to burn the midnight oil and watch the US election results next Tuesday night, remember that in the USA Daylight Saving Time ends this weekend, and clocks go back one hour to Standard Time.
My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.
Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
If she loses Pennsylvania the gig's up. If she wins that but not Florida she is probably, but not definitely, OK. Ohio is lost to her already. She has to a final stop somewhere. Pennsylvania is as good a place as any.
Maybe but given how few events she is doing over the next few days compared to Trump she is putting her eggs in a smaller basked than she needed to
she is outspending him 3 to 1 on TV and has the obamas, biden, kaine and sanders doing rallys for her. She doesnt need to do 2 rallys a day
The rallies she isn't doing could make all the difference. Sitting on her arse taking it easy won't help her. Meanwhile it's being reported that unnamed US intelligence sources (!) are warning of possible terror attacks by al-Qaeda between now and election day in NYC, Virginia and Texas.
she should be doing two rallies a day with union workers /organisers she got a boost after her rally in Nevada.
Here's May's problem. If she campaigned in a GE for specific brexit it's leaving her flank open to attack from either Labour/LDs or UKIP. If she campaigns saying nothing more than "Brexit means Brexit", the other parties can just literally copy her slogan exactly , and no one is any wiser.
She's likely still to win but talk of landslides is hubris.
To be clear, Labour will certainly not he going into the election on a Stop Brexit platform, and even unlikely the LDs will too. Most remainers now see that Soft Brexit is the potential prize , never let the perfect be the enemy of the good basically. So Tories won't be able to say that the will of the British people is being thwarted by the opposition.
They will be able to, but if the opponents are not stop Brexit it will be harder. The fight at the least between the big two woukd surely be who will deliver Brexit right, but the harder a Brexit one goes for, the more imperative to say the other side, even if they are not trying to prevent Brexit, are thwarting the will of the people, that only your Brexit is a legitimate brexit. It will certainly be ukips message.
I don't think that May's position is as complex as is made out. I think she gets that she needs to regain some measure of control over the borders, which rules out permanent accession to the EEA because of the EU's fundamentalist position on the free movement of people. So all she has to do is say that the end point of the process is that Britain has to be out of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and say that nothing else (e.g. an application to re-join EFTA, and transitional membership of the EEA for a fixed time period,) is definitively ruled in or out. Which is entirely reasonable, because (a) she doesn't want to reveal her entire negotiating position to the EU, and (b) she can't absolutely promise to deliver any outcome to which the other party has to agree.
... ... ...
That's Hard Brexit in practice - ie exit with agreeing anything much with the EU - and I think over the course of the campaign it be laid bare as such. Last week her government gave assurances to Nissan that they would keep them in the EU regime. You can be sure Nissan and others will pitch in during the campaign
She will take a requirement that EU citizens have to have a job offer to the EU and try and get whatever trade deal she can based on that
Which won't be anything much at all. There isn't the time, the will or probably the ability to produce a new treaty with the EU within ten years. Hard Brexit is definitely an option and might be inevitable but I question whether the British public are really prepared to accept it. And think of the embarrassment of Nissan upping sticks from Sunderland after all.
My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.
Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
she is in Ohio twice and florida once again before the election.
She is in Florida once, Ohio once, New Hampshire once and Pennsylvania once. Trump is in Florida twice, North Carolina twice, New Hampshire once, Nevada once, Colorado once, Iowa once, Wisconsin once and Pennsylvania once over the same time period (he was in Ohio today)
as below, she has high quality surrogates to help. He has to do all that himself.
Anyway, PA is a bit tight, but still a 75% clinton chance on 538
The 14 campaign visits as based on fivethirtyeight's wiggly line, suggest that as a mean the campaign front line sits 1.2 states into the states Trump needs to win, giving NC as the most likely last/first state won. That is exactly in line with their own predictions of what will happen. I guess when you have a plethora of early returns data you wouldn't expect too much of a divergence between polling and campaigning, in contrast to what we saw at GE2015 where the clues were there that Labour was campaigning too shallow into the Tory marginal pool to even make good SNP losses.
Both RealClearPolitics and 538 have Trump one state away from winning the election with their prediction models. With RCP it's Florida, with 538 Pennsylvania.
Add in Colorado and maybe New Hampshire and you have the states which will likely decide the election
I can't see Colorado being a decisive state. If Trump wins it he'll have already won the election elsewhere.
Colorado was the state that won it for Obama in 2012.
Pennsylvania is a closer state in the polls at the moment than Colorado.
I don't think that May's position is as complex as is made out. I think she gets that she needs to regain some measure of control over the borders, which rules out permanent accession to the EEA because of the EU's fundamentalist position on the free movement of people. So all she has to do is say that the end point of the process is that Britain has to be out of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and say that nothing else (e.g. an application to re-join EFTA, and transitional membership of the EEA for a fixed time period,) is definitively ruled in or out. Which is entirely reasonable, because (a) she doesn't want to reveal her entire negotiating position to the EU, and (b) she can't absolutely promise to deliver any outcome to which the other party has to agree.
... ... ...
That's Hard Brexit in practice - ie exit with agreeing anything much with the EU - and I think over the course of the campaign it be laid bare as such. Last week her government gave assurances to Nissan that they would keep them in the EU regime. You can be sure Nissan and others will pitch in during the campaign
She will take a requirement that EU citizens have to have a job offer to the EU and try and get whatever trade deal she can based on that
In practice I'm not sure that red line would achieve much except presentationally because people could still enter as tourists for up to 3 months, get their job offer, and then they'd qualify for their NI number and whatever other residency requirements we'd need. The benefits system is the real thorny issue.
"23:36 A Democratic elector in Washington state said Friday he won’t vote for Hillary Clinton even if she wins the popular vote in his state on Election Day, adding a degree of suspense when the Electoral College affirms the election results next month, reports the Associated Press."
Faithless electors. In reality if it makes any difference it will be worked out.
If Trump wins NH he could get to 269 even without Pennsylvania or Colorado, Hillary would also be on 269 so if that elector does not vote for Hillary then Trump is elected President
For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?
The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.
I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
Always knew you were a TINO!
Only soulless party robots commit to definitely always voting for one side, no matter what. Even the most loyal need to accept there will be situations that just push them too far.
But I wish Europe only the best. I travel there quite a lot
Britain is in Europe.
In but not part of, near to the continent but most definitely separate. We've been exceptional for a thousand years.
And Spain hasn't? And Ireland, Sicily, Bulgaria, Normandy, Lapland? What's now called Britain has been part of Europe just as much as any other part of Europe has, throughout that time and longer. Look where the Celts, Angles, Saxons and Jutes came from, and at the spread of what became the religion of the Roman empire. Although I'm in favour of Britain staying in the EU, I'm not offering Britain's character as a European country as an argument in favour; just saying it shouldn't be denied.
My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.
Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
If she loses Pennsylvania the gig's up. If she wins that but not Florida she is probably, but not definitely, OK. Ohio is lost to her already. She has to a final stop somewhere. Pennsylvania is as good a place as any.
Maybe but given how few events she is doing over the next few days compared to Trump she is putting her eggs in a smaller basked than she needed to
she is outspending him 3 to 1 on TV and has the obamas, biden, kaine and sanders doing rallys for her. She doesnt need to do 2 rallys a day
The .
she should be doing two rallies a day with union workers /organisers she got a boost after her rally in Nevada.
Indeed, she risks going down the George W Bush 2000 route otherwise. He thought the election was won in the final week and spent much of the last few days recuperating in Texas, meanwhile Gore worked non-stop until polls opened, much as it seems Trump is now intending to do
Straight fight I imagine I'd vote for Mays lot even with hard Brexit over Corbyn's lot promising a softer Brexit. So she should probably go for it. I guess I might vote LD again even if they go full on stop Brexit, as a pity vote, but like in most areas that would little impact, so not much risk there.
I don't think that May's position is as complex as is made out. I think she gets that she needs to regain some measure of control over the borders, which rules out permanent accession to the EEA because of the EU's fundamentalist position on the free movement of people. So all she has to do is say that the end point of the process is that Britain has to be out of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and say that nothing else (e.g. an application to re-join EFTA, and transitional membership of the EEA for a fixed time period,) is definitively ruled in or out. Which is entirely reasonable, because (a) she doesn't want to reveal her entire negotiating position to the EU, and (b) she can't absolutely promise to deliver any outcome to which the other party has to agree.
... ... ...
That's Hard Brexit in practice - ie exit with agreeing anything much with the EU - and I think over the course of the campaign it be laid bare as such. Last week her government gave assurances to Nissan that they would keep them in the EU regime. You can be sure Nissan and others will pitch in during the campaign
She will take a requirement that EU citizens have to have a job offer to the EU and try and get whatever trade deal she can based on that
She will also offer to pay Contributions to individual EU schemes, for ESA, Erasmus, Horizon 2020, etc, and disguise it as "aid", or "solidarity funds for Eastern Europe", and so we will stay in much of the cooperative soft EU stuff that we like - because the EU wants us in that, too, and they want our money.
It will be a fudge.
No problem with that at all. Call it Overseas Aid to fudge that number too and carry on with fun things like the ESA
I wish it were possible to bet on particular combinations in the US election. For example I think there's a chance Trump might win Pennsylvania but lose Florida, which seems unlikely at first glance.
Does the conversation here now fork into one on whether Clinton becomes president by EC vote and one on whether she gets a majority of "projected" EC votes and paid out on by Betfair?
Both RealClearPolitics and 538 have Trump one state away from winning the election with their prediction models. With RCP it's Florida, with 538 Pennsylvania.
Add in Colorado and maybe New Hampshire and you have the states which will likely decide the election
I can't see Colorado being a decisive state. If Trump wins it he'll have already won the election elsewhere.
Colorado was the state that won it for Obama in 2012.
My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.
My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.
He could win.
Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/ https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;
Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.
Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
she is in Ohio twice and florida once again before the election.
She is in Florida once, Ohio once, New Hampshire )
as below, she has high quality surrogates to help. He has to do all that himself.
Anyway, PA is a bit tight, but still a 75% clinton chance on 538
The 14 campaign visits as based on fivethirtyeight's wiggly line, suggest that as a mean the campaign front line sits 1.2 states into the states Trump needs to win, giving NC as the most likely last/first state won. That is exactly in line with their own predictions of what will happen. I guess when you have a plethora of early returns data you wouldn't expect too much of a divergence between polling and campaigning, in contrast to what we saw at GE2015 where the clues were there that Labour was campaigning too shallow into the Tory marginal pool to even make good SNP losses.
Obama won early returns by significantly more than he did the actual election and in Florida for instance while the Dems lead on in-person early voting, the GOP lead on mail-in postal voting
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.
There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look.
Until it got hard and he bailed
Cameron was never for the long term. Like you say for him it was a gig. Makes me so angry these upper class twits can come in and twat about for there own ambitions and actually not give a fuck about those they are meant to represent.
David Cameron was the fourth-longest serving leader of the Conservative Party in the last 100 years.
And What did he achieve ?
Your suggestion was that he was never for the long term. His record suggests otherwise.
On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look.
Until it got hard and he bailed
Cameron was never for the long term. Like you say for him it was a gig. Makes me so angry these upper class twits can come in and twat about for there own ambitions and actually not give a fuck about those they are meant to represent.
David Cameron was the fourth-longest serving leader of the Conservative Party in the last 100 years.
And What did he achieve ?
Most politicians' careers end merely in failure. He was exceptional.
I don't think that May's position is as complex as is made out. I think she gets that she needs to regain some measure of control over the borders, which rules out permanent accession to the EEA because of the EU's fundamentalist position on the free movement of people. So all she has to do is say that the end point of the process is that Britain has to be out of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and say that nothing else (e.g. an application to re-join EFTA, and transitional membership of the EEA for a fixed time period,) is definitively ruled in or out. Which is entirely reasonable, because (a) she doesn't want to reveal her entire negotiating position to the EU, and (b) she can't absolutely promise to deliver any outcome to which the other party has to agree.
... ... ...
That's Hard Brexit in practice - ie exit with agreeing anything much with the EU - and I think over the course of the campaign it be laid bare as such. Last week her government gave assurances to Nissan that they would keep them in the EU regime. You can be sure Nissan and others will pitch in during the campaign
She will take a requirement that EU citizens have to have a job offer to the EU and try and get whatever trade deal she can based on that
She will also offer to pay Contributions to individual EU schemes, for ESA, Erasmus, Horizon 2020, etc, and disguise it as "aid", or "solidarity funds for Eastern Europe", and so we will stay in much of the cooperative soft EU stuff that we like - because the EU wants us in that, too, and they want our money.
It will be a fudge.
It will be and some concessions will have to be made but the 'job offer' requirement will be the 'immigration control' she likely goes for
Both RealClearPolitics and 538 have Trump one state away from winning the election with their prediction models. With RCP it's Florida, with 538 Pennsylvania.
Add in Colorado and maybe New Hampshire and you have the states which will likely decide the election
I can't see Colorado being a decisive state. If Trump wins it he'll have already won the election elsewhere.
Colorado was the state that won it for Obama in 2012.
Pennsylvania is a closer state in the polls at the moment than Colorado.
By 0.4% with RCP, earlier in the week Colorado was closer
I don't think that May's position is as complex as is made out. I think she gets that she needs to regain some measure of control over the borders, which rules out permanent accession to the EEA because of the EU's fundamentalist position on the free movement of people. So all she has to do is say that the end point of the process is that Britain has to be out of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and say that nothing else (e.g. an application to re-join EFTA, and transitional membership of the EEA for a fixed time period,) is definitively ruled in or out. Which is entirely reasonable, because (a) she doesn't want to reveal her entire negotiating position to the EU, and (b) she can't absolutely promise to deliver any outcome to which the other party has to agree.
... ... ...
That's Hard Brexit in practice - ie exit with agreeing anything much with the EU - and I think over the course of the campaign it be laid bare as such. Last week her government gave assurances to Nissan that they would keep them in the EU regime. You can be sure Nissan and others will pitch in during the campaign
She will take a requirement that EU citizens have to have a job offer to the EU and try and get whatever trade deal she can based on that
Which won't be anything much at all. There isn't the time, the will or probably the ability to produce a new treaty with the EU within ten years. Hard Brexit is definitely an option and might be inevitable but I question whether the British public are really prepared to accept it. And think of the embarrassment of Nissan upping sticks from Sunderland after all.
I think even Nissan will see such an offer as perfectly reasonable in the circumstances and some compensation on R and D etc will likely be offered, if the EU elite refuse to play ball and accept any compromise at all then stuff them and hard Brexit it is with tariffs on their imports to the UK too
For those planning to burn the midnight oil and watch the US election results next Tuesday night, remember that in the USA Daylight Saving Time ends this weekend, and clocks go back one hour to Standard Time.
Johnny come Latelies! We switched back last weekend
Both RealClearPolitics and 538 have Trump one state away from winning the election with their prediction models. With RCP it's Florida, with 538 Pennsylvania.
Add in Colorado and maybe New Hampshire and you have the states which will likely decide the election
I can't see Colorado being a decisive state. If Trump wins it he'll have already won the election elsewhere.
Colorado was the state that won it for Obama in 2012.
Oh, so its their fault is it? Bastards.
Had it not been them, he had others in reserve. But yes, in 2012 it was *the* swing state.
I don't think that May's position is as complex as is made out. I think she gets that she needs to regain some measure of control over the borders, which rules out permanent accession to the EEA because of the EU's fundamentalist position on the free movement of people. So all she has to do is say that the end point of the process is that Britain has to be out of the Single Market and the Customs Union, and say that nothing else (e.g. an application to re-join EFTA, and transitional membership of the EEA for a fixed time period,) is definitively ruled in or out. Which is entirely reasonable, because (a) she doesn't want to reveal her entire negotiating position to the EU, and (b) she can't absolutely promise to deliver any outcome to which the other party has to agree.
... ... ...
That's Hard Brexit in practice - ie exit with agreeing anything much with the EU - and I think over the course of the campaign it be laid bare as such. Last week her government gave assurances to Nissan that they would keep them in the EU regime. You can be sure Nissan and others will pitch in during the campaign
She will take a requirement that EU citizens have to have a job offer to the EU and try and get whatever trade deal she can based on that
In practice I'm not sure that red line would achieve much except presentationally because people could still enter as tourists for up to 3 months, get their job offer, and then they'd qualify for their NI number and whatever other residency requirements we'd need. The benefits system is the real thorny issue.
It is probably the maximum May can get while having a chance of a trade deal, if the EU refuse even that then clearly we will never get a trade deal for the foreseeable future and will go to WTO terms and can impose a tougher form of immigration control
"23:36 A Democratic elector in Washington state said Friday he won’t vote for Hillary Clinton even if she wins the popular vote in his state on Election Day, adding a degree of suspense when the Electoral College affirms the election results next month, reports the Associated Press."
Faithless electors. In reality if it makes any difference it will be worked out.
If Trump wins NH he could get to 269 even without Pennsylvania or Colorado, Hillary would also be on 269 so if that elector does not vote for Hillary then Trump is elected President
Only if the faithless elector votes for Trump. Otherwise it goes to the House (which would *probably* elect Trump).
"23:36 A Democratic elector in Washington state said Friday he won’t vote for Hillary Clinton even if she wins the popular vote in his state on Election Day, adding a degree of suspense when the Electoral College affirms the election results next month, reports the Associated Press."
Faithless electors. In reality if it makes any difference it will be worked out.
If Trump wins NH he could get to 269 even without Pennsylvania or Colorado, Hillary would also be on 269 so if that elector does not vote for Hillary then Trump is elected President
Only if the faithless elector votes for Trump. Otherwise it goes to the House (which would *probably* elect Trump).
Presuming the GOP retain the House which is likely, yes
Comments
...on the side of a bus.
Its not the despair the hurts the Remoaners, but the Hope that their time in the wilderness will be cut short.
In reality, even from Saaarf Ken, we're leaving. And neither high court judges, nor MPs, nor Lords, can in reality get in the way of that.
And we're leaving with the best deal the PM can get. Or no deal at all.
Still hold that the SC will overturn the decision, finding the necessary legal justifications within our own constitution to ease the passage of a royal prerogative.
Sometimes we place far too much on our politicians..they are people like us. Well apart from Corbyn who is made from some sort of 70's socialist kryptonite that seems impervious to anything...
Anyway, PA is a bit tight, but still a 75% clinton chance on 538
Of the 632 GB seats, 221 voted Remain, 15 were 50/50 and 396 voted Leave.
But the result of the election will be determined by the 120 marginals with a majority of less than 10%.
There are 42 Tory marginals that voted Remain with LibDems mainly in second place (Twickenham, Kingston, Lewes, Bath, Cardiff N, etc). LibDems are likely to win most of these seats back in an election focused on Brexit. That reduces the Tory majority by up to 24.
13 of the Labour marginals have a Leave vote of 60%+ which might be a problem for Labour if they are anti-Brexit but possibly not such a problem if they are pro a soft Brexit as many Leavers might agree with that.
So, ignoring the Corbyn effect, a Brexit based election is likely to lead to a loss of the Tory majority as many LibDems regain Tory seats and not many Labour lose seats.
So the election, in practice would be a judgement of Corbyn not of Brexit and a big risk for the Tories!
May is respected.
Scott and Paste might not get it - but she is a lot more popular in the country than Cameron and Osborne could ever be.
She wins a general because she turns Toryism into an every day brand more than anyone since Thatcher, and because of that she'll get her way on Brexit.
Further thought: actually quite a bit worse than Major. His problems were mainly with backbenchers. May's problems are with her ministers
And, double it....Trump is getting traction. New Hampshire is well in reach.
The world from your eyes is really good with a capital G and OOD written after it. Hard Brexit, Trump.....maybe a bit of Le Pen; Renzi losing his referendum, Merkel losing...the EU collapsing, Trump trade wars. I'm loving it.......
2017.....what a year to look forward to.....
'An interesting question is what Mrs May really thinks about an early election (which Labour is also assuming as a plausible contingency). If she's secretly quite keen, then she's lying in her teeth when she flatly denies it, which doesn't seem her usual style. If she's firmly against as she says, then she has a serious problems with Ministers briefing to the contrary.'
Ever heard of events changing what people think,quite a lot has happened this week ?
Like the old Kit Kat advert, she can't sing, she can't play, she looks awful. She'll go a long way.
In the spirit of only wanting to say positive things, I doubt Labour's contingency plans even remotely impact on Theresa's sleepless nights. She has got other things to think about.
May is popular beyond the dreams of TSE's lot.
I don't want either Trump or Clinton to win; but I think Trump will because he communicates with American hopes and fears.
Renzi and Merkel will also be gone. But I wish Europe only the best. I travel there quite a lot, and we can't cope with anymore hardship in this 100 years caused by European idiocy. The solution to that is telling them the cold hard truth, not abrogating our sovereignty and hastening our national decline.
I'm beginning to wonder whether you have to be a provincial grammar school lad to get the political consensus nowadays. Our 'common sense' time has come again, much to metropolitan chagrin.
The trailer alone was enough to allocate it to the 95% of all BBC comedy that is crap basket.
She's likely still to win but talk of landslides is hubris.
What did he achieve ?
It looks increasingly that she has no "cunning plan".
avarice....
She's squandering political capital on trivia. A large part of the job of Prime Minister is "smile and wave and don't bump into the furniture". She's not smiling, she's not waving and she's rustling every antimacassar in the room.
This leaves another party or parties the space to adopt the stop Brexit position, or to campaign for the Norway model. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the Lib Dems could adopt one position, a breakaway group of Tories could take the other, and the two could operate in a non-aggression pact under a joint Europhile ticket. But my guess is that a Tory breakaway group, if such a thing ever appears, is likely to be small and only to consist of the most committed continuity Remainers. I suspect that, much as in the country at large, most MPs aren't passionately and irrevocably committed one way or another in this debate, and will have quickly reconciled themselves to implementing what the public decided.
So, if a small split is the price that has to be paid then so be it. It is likely that neither of those parties would win a large number of seats under FPTP, that at least some of the Tory splinter group's candidates would be faced down and beaten by official Tories, and that modest losses of centrist and Continuity Remain voters to the Europhile ticket would be more than offset by traditional right-wingers coming home from Ukip - especially in the very southern English seats where any challenge from said Europhiles is likely to be strongest.
There is no reason to suppose that, faced with a heavily divided cohort of opposition parties, and a Labour Party facing its own, more profound splits on the EU and much else besides, a Tory slate of hardcore leavers balanced with pragmatists couldn't win a healthy majority in a general election. With a mandate secured, May could then invoke A50 and get on with negotiations, returning to Parliament to consult at regular intervals. The arguments about exactly what form our long-term relationship with the EU ought to take will carry on for years, but hopefully once the enactment of the Brexit decision appears to be irreversible the febrile atmosphere around the topic will begin to subside.
Grammar schools are popular with Tory voters and especially swing c1s, 2s and ds.
Not quivering on Brexit is the position of most Leavers and many sensible
remainers.
Perhaps the Blair/Cameroon establishment 'consensus' ceremonial PM role has gone and it's time for some proper leadership again. leadership for the whole country, not just the often narrow city view.
R(epublican) In Name Only - RINO and as seen here today
L(eaver) In Name Only - although that will probably be soon confused with
L(abour) In Name Only - and I have seen also
D(emocrat) In Name Only.
"23:36
A Democratic elector in Washington state said Friday he won’t vote for Hillary Clinton even if she wins the popular vote in his state on Election Day, adding a degree of suspense when the Electoral College affirms the election results next month, reports the Associated Press."
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/nov/04/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-swing-states-election-2016-campaign-live
Call it Overseas Aid to fudge that number too and carry on with fun things like the ESA
Does the conversation here now fork into one on whether Clinton becomes president by EC vote and one on whether she gets a majority of "projected" EC votes and paid out on by Betfair?
Bastards.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/