politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If leader ratings are indeed a good guide to electoral outcome
Options
Comments
-
NEW THREAD
0 -
There are not that many MPs who are willing to go on such a kamikaze mission, only MPs like Ken Clarke who are retiring and those who represent Remain areas like David Lammy, Catherine West and Daniel Zeichner
It's the Lords
shoot the fuckers, grind the place to dust and lets have an elected upper house in Bootle to restore some balance
I see people are coming round to my constitutional reform ideas.
THE SNP IS RIGHT ON THIS.
I suspect the SNP werent the first to come up with HoL reform
however if it gets the votes lets stick it in East Glasgow0 -
I expect the comments will mostly be discussing the US election & Brexit.TheScreamingEagles said:
Funny, you mention lice.Alanbrooke said:
lice, cockroaches. hillaries ?TheScreamingEagles said:BIGGER THAN WATERGATE. WATERGATE!!!!
Exclusive: The Democratic National Committee Has Told the FBI It Found Evidence Its HQ Was Bugged
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/dnc-told-fbi-it-may-have-been-bugged
So, I'm in the cinema watching a film and it dawned on me what I'm going to write about on Sunday, and it features pubic lice.
PUBIC lice, yes PUBIC
You're getting a thread that discusses pubic lice.
Good evening, everyone.0 -
.0
-
You just watch the polls as the gap with tories increasesjustin124 said:
I don't think the electorate is as obsessed with Brexit as you might care to believe. Most are sick of it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Yes but in the opposite way you think - all the broadcast media show anger from around the Country that the Judges ruled against TM and the result will be increasing popularity for her and a bigger lead for the conservativesjustin124 said:
In recent years Labour has not shared the EU obsession of the Tories, and it might actually be to their benefit to say little at a time when Tory party divisions are returning to the surface. Perceptions of May's competence are likely to have taken a hit following the chaos of the last 36 hours.tyson said:
If Labour isn't on 22% it bloody well deserves to be. There's only Keir Starmer that is stopping the party becoming completely irrelevant..justin124 said:
Yesterday YouGov had Labour on 27%.TheWhiteRabbit said:Please let YouGov put Labour on 22%!! I'm sure the rumour isn't true but we can hope
And I say that as a Labour party member for thirty years.....0 -
I am no fan of Corbyn at all , but so far he has exceeded expectations in all the electoral tests set for him by his critics. I could certainly see Labour managing circa 32% in an election.MarkHopkins said:justin124 said:
I think it more likely that the polls are understating Labour rather than the reverse. In the past big polling leads for any party have failed to be borne out by subsequent actual election results.This proved true in 1966 - 1979 from a couple of months before Polling Day - 1983 - 1997 -and 2001. One of the contributors to last week's Polling Matters Podcast made a similar point.Black_Rook said:
The polls *might* still be overstating Labour's support to the same extent as they did before the election. Move 3% from Lab to Con and that would leave Labour on 24%.tyson said:
If Labour isn't on 22% it bloody well deserves to be. There's only Keir Starmer that is stopping the party becoming completely irrelevant..justin124 said:
Yesterday YouGov had Labour on 27%.TheWhiteRabbit said:Please let YouGov put Labour on 22%!! I'm sure the rumour isn't true but we can hope
And I say that as a Labour party member for thirty years.....
I would find a figure like that credible, but nothing much lower. Labour still has a substantial voter coalition in England and Wales: public sector and transport workers, black and Muslim voters, metro left-libs, students, the Far Left, the very poor (working age people largely or wholly long-term benefit dependent,) and the surviving cohort of cultural/habit voters. And they've no real flanking opposition further to the Left, save (on some issues) for the Greens who only poll around 3-4% anyway.
There was some evidence of net churn from Lab to LD in that latest YouGov, but that's probably just the result of slightly more centre-Left and despairing Europhile voters travelling to Farron than more radical Libs being inspired to join forces with Corbyn, and I doubt it there are that many more 2015 Labour voters left for the yellows to mine (especially given that most of them likely still haven't forgiven the LDs for the Coalition.)
Yeahbut: Corbyn.0 -
Thank heavens for NATO and shame on some European countries for trying to undermine it.rottenborough said:
Claptrap. Europe has enjoyed its longest period of peace and prosperity in centuries.Alanbrooke said:
you had 40 years you didnt improve it for ordinary peopletyson said:
@Richard Tyndall
Did you not see the red top headlines today? To use USA terminology there is no pathway to a soft Brexit. I doubt the EU would agree to it anyway.
People like Alastair and me.....we knew that the EU was a bit dysfunctional...but better to stay in and try and improve it. But's that all by the by. A hard Brexit it is....whatever people like you have to say about it.....
I pour utter scorn on the EU and its sycophantic supporters for even daring to try and claim credit for either peace or prosperity in Europe.0 -
NATO has certainly played a large role in European security, but you can't discount the EU entirely either. Economic integration between Germany and the rest of Europe also played its part. It's not mutually exclusive.Richard_Tyndall said:
Thank heavens for NATO and shame on some European countries for trying to undermine it.rottenborough said:
Claptrap. Europe has enjoyed its longest period of peace and prosperity in centuries.Alanbrooke said:
you had 40 years you didnt improve it for ordinary peopletyson said:
@Richard Tyndall
Did you not see the red top headlines today? To use USA terminology there is no pathway to a soft Brexit. I doubt the EU would agree to it anyway.
People like Alastair and me.....we knew that the EU was a bit dysfunctional...but better to stay in and try and improve it. But's that all by the by. A hard Brexit it is....whatever people like you have to say about it.....
I pour utter scorn on the EU and its sycophantic supporters for even daring to try and claim credit for either peace or prosperity in Europe.0 -
Yes he will hold on to most of his existing voters, certainly in marginals, there's still been zero indication of direct lab to con switchers. A 2015 repeat in next election is likely, with perhaps a couple lib dem revivals against the Tories, and the SNP losing a couple.justin124 said:
I am no fan of Corbyn at all , but so far he has exceeded expectations in all the electoral tests set for him by his critics. I could certainly see Labour managing circa 32% in an election.MarkHopkins said:justin124 said:
I think it more likely that the polls are understating Labour rather than the reverse. In the past big polling leads for any party have failed to be borne out by subsequent actual election results.This proved true in 1966 - 1979 from a couple of months before Polling Day - 1983 - 1997 -and 2001. One of the contributors to last week's Polling Matters Podcast made a similar point.Black_Rook said:
The polls *might* still be overstating Labour's support to the same extent as they did before the election. Move 3% from Lab to Con and that would leave Labour on 24%.tyson said:
If Labour isn't on 22% it bloody well deserves to be. There's only Keir Starmer that is stopping the party becoming completely irrelevant..justin124 said:
Yesterday YouGov had Labour on 27%.TheWhiteRabbit said:Please let YouGov put Labour on 22%!! I'm sure the rumour isn't true but we can hope
And I say that as a Labour party member for thirty years.....
I would find a figure like that credible, but nothing much lower. Labour still has a substantial voter coalition in England and Wales: public sector and transport workers, black and Muslim voters, metro left-libs, students, the Far Left, the very poor (working age people largely or wholly long-term benefit dependent,) and the surviving cohort of cultural/habit voters. And they've no real flanking opposition further to the Left, save (on some issues) for the Greens who only poll around 3-4% anyway.
There was some evidence of net churn from Lab to LD in that latest YouGov, but that's probably just the result of slightly more centre-Left and despairing Europhile voters travelling to Farron than more radical Libs being inspired to join forces with Corbyn, and I doubt it there are that many more 2015 Labour voters left for the yellows to mine (especially given that most of them likely still haven't forgiven the LDs for the Coalition.)
Yeahbut: Corbyn.
0 -
We've been around this circle before, bur I pour scorn on any Europhobe who says that the EU has had no influence on that peace.Richard_Tyndall said:
Thank heavens for NATO and shame on some European countries for trying to undermine it.rottenborough said:
Claptrap. Europe has enjoyed its longest period of peace and prosperity in centuries.Alanbrooke said:
you had 40 years you didnt improve it for ordinary peopletyson said:
@Richard Tyndall
Did you not see the red top headlines today? To use USA terminology there is no pathway to a soft Brexit. I doubt the EU would agree to it anyway.
People like Alastair and me.....we knew that the EU was a bit dysfunctional...but better to stay in and try and improve it. But's that all by the by. A hard Brexit it is....whatever people like you have to say about it.....
I pour utter scorn on the EU and its sycophantic supporters for even daring to try and claim credit for either peace or prosperity in Europe.0 -
So you say.Alanbrooke said:
its got bugger all to do with raceJosiasJessop said:
It's what was made of it, the realities (*), and the timescales. Oh, and the implicit racism.Sean_F said:
Suppose I'm wrong, and the government sincerely and fervently wanted Turkey to join the EU? Why exactly should the Leave campaign be criticised for taking the government at their word?JosiasJessop said:
You keep on saying that second clause, yet don't seem to be able to give any evidence for the assertion.Sean_F said:
Well it *was* the official policy of our government to have Turkey joining, even though you and I know they never meant it.AlastairMeeks said:
Turkey is joining the EU, Vote Leave insisted. It was the vilest of lies, told to inflame prejudices about Muslims, bookended with advocating Australian points systems, chosen for their white overtones.Richard_Tyndall said:
No Alistair it really wasn't and that is just your long established bigotry showing through again.AlastairMeeks said:
The referendum was won by pandering to xenophd something.Richard_Tyndall said:
They must be really, really stupid then.foxinsoxuk said:
You cannot assume that 100% of Remain voters want a soft Brexit. To many the option of the EEA or similar is tbe worst of both worlds.rcs1000 said:
Irrespective, it is the job of the government to find the exit that gets the support of 70% of the populations, not 51% of Leave voters.HYUFD said:
Yes but you are a wealthy thriller writer lower middle class voters in the North and MidlandsSeanT said:I voted LEAVE and I want EEA or EFTA, or as close as.
You can't fight a referendum campaign with xenophobia then walk away whistling as if it isn't your problem.
But mainly the racism.
And on that bombshell, goodnight everyone.
(*) My view: a Turkey that passed all the hoops and hurdles to join (e.g. the AC) would be a very different Turkey politically. Which is one reason why progress to the AC has been so slow.
most turks are probably ethnic greeks by dna
its religion and cultures
race is irrelevant
You are wrong. You might want to look up 'Turkic peoples', and the Central Asian, Arabian, and even Siberian genetic histories.
As for "race is irrelevant": LOL.0
This discussion has been closed.