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edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Telegraph’s reporting that ministers preparing for snap spring election

TELEGRAPH POLITICS LEAD: Ministers prep snap election #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/WHf2IgPMhf

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Matthew Parris — "The last thing May needs is an early election".

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-last-thing-may-needs-is-an-early-election-sbthc9kjp
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Repeal it
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Repeal it

    Yes please!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    It'll probably be like it or lump it.
  • pinkrosepinkrose Posts: 189
    I don't get these people who are becoming hysterical about so called nasty Brexit Britian, where foreigners fear to tread and the working class are racist feral scum. If one million British people had, within ten years, suddenly moved to Poland, depressed wages, exacerbated a housing crisis, put pressure on services and were allowed to access healthcare and claim benefits to top up their low wages/get help with housing costs exactly the same as Polish people, even though they hadn't contributed a zloty to the country, do you think the worst that Polish people would've done would've been to vote Leave in an EU Referendum? I don't think so.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    George isnt there to threaten and reward

    theyll bribe them with prospects and the 170 will shrink to 70 and the 145 will become 245
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    It'll probably be like it or lump it.
    That's expecting a lot of MPs on either side to do either.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Repeal it

    The Lords would likely block that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    AlastairMeeks said:

    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    It'll probably be like it or lump it.
    That's expecting a lot of MPs on either side to do either.
    Well there isn't really another option, if an election is to be held.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Alanbrooke said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    George isnt there to threaten and reward

    theyll bribe them with prospects and the 170 will shrink to 70 and the 145 will become 245
    Tsk, only today the WTW Leavers were accusing Stephen Phillips of being a LINO. It's so difficult keeping track of the cross currents.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited November 2016
    She will only do it if Parliament holds up triggering Article 50 beyond her deadline of March and only then if the Commons is the problem, there is little point if it is the Lords that is the problem as they could not care less if she has a majority of 300 they will still hold it up, she will have to use the Parliament Act or create more Peers to deal with them. Unless that is she goes to the country on a platform of scrapping the Lords either completely or by replacing it with an elected second chamber
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    welcome to the party

    youll enjoy not being a sheep

    ( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    It'll probably be like it or lump it.
    That's expecting a lot of MPs on either side to do either.
    Well there isn't really another option, if an election is to be held.
    Dissenting from the party line is the third option.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,233
    Trouble for Nicola - up to six SNP MSP's voted to leave.

    Last night the Tories took a seat of SNP and one from the Lib Dems

    Maybe more MP's than Panda's for the Tories at the next GE, whenever it is
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    pinkrose said:

    I don't get these people who are becoming hysterical about so called nasty Brexit Britian, where foreigners fear to tread and the working class are racist feral scum. If one million British people had, within ten years, suddenly moved to Poland, depressed wages, exacerbated a housing crisis, put pressure on services and were allowed to access healthcare and claim benefits to top up their low wages/get help with housing costs exactly the same as Polish people, even though they hadn't contributed a zloty to the country, do you think the worst that Polish people would've done would've been to vote Leave in an EU Referendum? I don't think so.

    I really like the fact that you haven't put any little yellow cartoon faces in this post...but I do find your picture a bit scary
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    So who would you vote for then?

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    George isnt there to threaten and reward

    theyll bribe them with prospects and the 170 will shrink to 70 and the 145 will become 245
    Tsk, only today the WTW Leavers were accusing Stephen Phillips of being a LINO. It's so difficult keeping track of the cross currents.
    LOL

    one MP from300+ has a principle

    start counting from there
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    welcome to the party

    youll enjoy not being a sheep

    ( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )
    I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Repeal it

    The Lords would likely block that.
    They could repeal it with the Parliament Act? Although FTPA is a bit of a Pandora's box, since I don't think a prerogative can be restored by an act of parliament.
  • pinkrosepinkrose Posts: 189
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    If she does seek a mandate for "hard" Brexit (which in reality is just Brexit because soft Brexit is Remain in all but name), surely the likes of Soubry, Morgan, Osborne and other Remain diehards won't be able to stand on a Tory Brexit manifesto? I hope this happens, May needs to call their bluff.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    steve_garner said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    So who would you vote for then?

    I'd probably abstain
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I haven't begun to think who I'll vote for next time. Interesting question.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited November 2016
    SeanT said:

    fpt

    My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

    My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

    He could win.

    Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    welcome to the party

    youll enjoy not being a sheep

    ( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )
    I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.
    you havent even seen the fking manifesto

    why are lawyers such drama queens ?

    buy a spine - and soon
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I am not sure a General Election will resolve the issue.

    Alastair is right, that the only viable route to catharsis is the hardest of all possible Brexits, border controls, WTO tariffs, the whole 9 yards.

    My local Tory MP was a prominent Brexiteer and would probably stand on such a ticket.

    And there is no way I would vote for the fuckers
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    welcome to the party

    youll enjoy not being a sheep

    ( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )
    I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.
    you havent even seen the fking manifesto

    why are lawyers such drama queens ?

    buy a spine - and soon
    If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    steve_garner said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    So who would you vote for then?

    I'd probably abstain
    There are some good animal welfare parties out there. I think human beings are clearly showing that we have made enough horlicks of the planet....why not?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    welcome to the party

    youll enjoy not being a sheep

    ( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )
    I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.
    you havent even seen the fking manifesto

    why are lawyers such drama queens ?

    buy a spine - and soon
    If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.
    crap salesman

    I mean you lie to clients for a living and suddenly you have principles ?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    There's no way TMay will call an election and then campaign explicitly for a Hard Brexit. You surely see this. It invites an incredible and unprecedented defeat: uniting the Remainers and the soft nervous Brexiteers against her.

    She will produce a manifesto saying "Brexit means Brexit" etc etc. Leaving her options open.

    That's what the Telegraph article says.

    As you said it sounds bonkers.

    But bonkers does fit her approach to Brexit, all of this could have been avoided by a simple Article 50 bill and vote.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    She will produce a manifesto saying "Brexit means Brexit" etc etc. Leaving her options open.

    She would get crucified
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    Brexit won't happen, unless a party fights and wins a general election on a platform of Brexit, and then passes primary legislation to implement it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    Scott_P said:

    I am not sure a General Election will resolve the issue.

    Alastair is right, that the only viable route to catharsis is the hardest of all possible Brexits, border controls, WTO tariffs, the whole 9 yards.

    My local Tory MP was a prominent Brexiteer and would probably stand on such a ticket.

    And there is no way I would vote for the fuckers

    can we nuke Luxemburg too ?

    Id go for that
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    The FTPA is no obstacle to anything. Challenge Labour to vote for a dissolution, and they almost certainly will. Firstly, they'll look frit if they don't, and secondly both the SNP and Lib Dems will vote for a dissolution and accuse Labour of passing on the chance to take down the hated Tories (and Hard Brexit into the bargain) if they refuse to follow suit. The key plank of SNP strategy, to entrench themselves permanently as the natural party of Government in Edinburgh, is to supplant and kill Scottish Labour, and this would get them another step closer to doing it.

    Even failing a two-thirds supermajority, all May has to do is resign as PM and wait a fortnight. She probably wouldn't even have to vacate Number 10, as she would presumably be left in office as caretaker PM: no alternative Government that could command a Commons majority for a vote of confidence is possible (even the most ultra pro-EU Tory rebels aren't likely to vote in a Labour-led rainbow coalition,) so there would be no alternative PM for the Queen to call.

    Thus, if May is determined to have an early election, I don't see any likely scenario in which she can't force the issue, either immediately or in pretty short order.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited November 2016
    Theresa May would seek a doctor's mandate. Her problem is that she has lost enough authority already to seek it without demur from her backbenchers. The window for such a mandate has closed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    FPT
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    rottenborough said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    tyson said:



    @Richard Tyndall
    Did you not see the red top headlines today? To use USA terminology there is no pathway to a soft Brexit. I doubt the EU would agree to it anyway.
    People like Alastair and me.....we knew that the EU was a bit dysfunctional...but better to stay in and try and improve it. But's that all by the by. A hard Brexit it is....whatever people like you have to say about it.....


    you had 40 years you didnt improve it for ordinary people
    Claptrap. Europe has enjoyed its longest period of peace and prosperity in centuries.
    Thank heavens for NATO and shame on some European countries for trying to undermine it.

    I pour utter scorn on the EU and its sycophantic supporters for even daring to try and claim credit for either peace or prosperity in Europe.
    Without the Schumann declaration and the moves to federalise industrial policy between France and West Germany the history of NATO and the Cold War would have been very different. You're only seeing half the story.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    I am not sure a General Election will resolve the issue.

    Alastair is right, that the only viable route to catharsis is the hardest of all possible Brexits, border controls, WTO tariffs, the whole 9 yards.

    My local Tory MP was a prominent Brexiteer and would probably stand on such a ticket.

    And there is no way I would vote for the fuckers

    Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.
    Remainers are beyond logic they;re in Violet Elizabeth territory
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    welcome to the party

    youll enjoy not being a sheep

    ( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )
    I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.
    you havent even seen the fking manifesto

    why are lawyers such drama queens ?

    buy a spine - and soon
    If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.
    Hard Brexit being anything other than a Brexit which is Remain in all but name?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    Anyhoo, back to date night.

    Play nicely and don't forget to discuss the Scottish Independence angle to (Hard) Brexit
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    steve_garner said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    So who would you vote for then?

    I'd probably abstain
    In the spirit of my new approach of not being mean...or political....possibly TSE you might have spared a thought at 2015 GE to see what a fine pickle that promise of a referendum would have got us.

    Of course, you were not the only one to make that mistake........
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I haven't begun to think who I'll vote for next time. Interesting question.

    LD surely?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyhoo, back to date night.

    Play nicely and don't forget to discuss the Scottish Independence angle to (Hard) Brexit

    Not going to ask how pubic lice came up..... :p
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    "Ministers believe Mrs May needs to win a mandate from the country to deliver a "Hard Brexit".

    This article sounds like the Liam Fox faction flying a kite. What about the commitments to Nissan to maintain no barriers on vehicle and supply chain transfers with the EU? Is that just last week's policy, to be ditched this week?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,988
    HYUFD said:

    She will only do it if Parliament holds up triggering Article 50 beyond her deadline of March and only then if the Commons is the problem, there is little point if it is the Lords that is the problem as they could not care less if she has a majority of 300 they will still hold it up, she will have to use the Parliament Act or create more Peers to deal with them. Unless that is she goes to the country on a platform of scrapping the Lords either completely or by replacing it with an elected second chamber

    It is interesting to speculate that the referendum vote to leave the EU could end up being the catalyst for wholesale modernisation of our political/democratic structures.

    Not a bad outcome, in my view.

    (Good evening, everyone)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I haven't begun to think who I'll vote for next time. Interesting question.

    LD surely?
    Their Brexit policy is idiotic and wrong.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

    My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

    He could win.

    Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
    Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    edited November 2016
    MP_SE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    welcome to the party

    youll enjoy not being a sheep

    ( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )
    I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.
    you havent even seen the fking manifesto

    why are lawyers such drama queens ?

    buy a spine - and soon
    If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.
    Hard Brexit being anything other than a Brexit which is Remain in all but name?
    No, the vision of Brexit the likes of SeanT, Richard Tyndall, Robert, and Max (who all voted Leave) have articulated is something I could live with.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    rottenborough said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    tyson said:



    @Richard Tyndall
    Did you not see the red top headlines today? To use USA terminology there is no pathway to a soft Brexit. I doubt the EU would agree to it anyway.
    People like Alastair and me.....we knew that the EU was a bit dysfunctional...but better to stay in and try and improve it. But's that all by the by. A hard Brexit it is....whatever people like you have to say about it.....


    you had 40 years you didnt improve it for ordinary people
    Claptrap. Europe has enjoyed its longest period of peace and prosperity in centuries.
    Thank heavens for NATO and shame on some European countries for trying to undermine it.

    I pour utter scorn on the EU and its sycophantic supporters for even daring to try and claim credit for either peace or prosperity in Europe.
    Without the Schumann declaration and the moves to federalise industrial policy between France and West Germany the history of NATO and the Cold War would have been very different. You're only seeing half the story.
    Stupid statement. Any number of issues could have shaped NATO and the Cold War.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyhoo, back to date night.

    Play nicely and don't forget to discuss the Scottish Independence angle to (Hard) Brexit

    Not going to ask how pubic lice came up..... :p
    You'll find out on Sunday.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    I thought you voted tactically for the LDs in Sheffield Hallam in 2015?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyhoo, back to date night.

    Play nicely and don't forget to discuss the Scottish Independence angle to (Hard) Brexit

    Not going to ask how pubic lice came up..... :p
    You'll find out on Sunday.
    That's a long date night.. :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    welcome to the party

    youll enjoy not being a sheep

    ( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )
    I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.
    you havent even seen the fking manifesto

    why are lawyers such drama queens ?

    buy a spine - and soon
    If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.
    I am sure you could sell the LD manifesto perfectly well
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    She will produce a manifesto saying "Brexit means Brexit" etc etc. Leaving her options open.

    She would get crucified
    No, it would work. She'd say she wanted X, Y and Z (financial passporting, control over immigration, a pony) but she wasn't going to say anything that would spoil Britain's negotiating hand. It wouldn't look great but it would be plenty enough to hold off Corbyn and what's left of UKIP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,772
    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    I thought you voted tactically for the LDs in Sheffield Hallam in 2015?
    I was going to do so, but then Nick Clegg said he might support a Labour/SNP government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    Alanbrooke said:

    Scott_P said:

    I am not sure a General Election will resolve the issue.

    Alastair is right, that the only viable route to catharsis is the hardest of all possible Brexits, border controls, WTO tariffs, the whole 9 yards.

    My local Tory MP was a prominent Brexiteer and would probably stand on such a ticket.

    And there is no way I would vote for the fuckers

    can we nuke Luxemburg too ?

    Id go for that
    No, I have several university friends in Luxembourg, Brussels maybe
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MP_SE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    welcome to the party

    youll enjoy not being a sheep

    ( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )
    I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.
    you havent even seen the fking manifesto

    why are lawyers such drama queens ?

    buy a spine - and soon
    If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.
    Hard Brexit being anything other than a Brexit which is Remain in all but name?
    No, the vision of Brexit the likes of SeanT, Richard Tyndall, Robert, and Max (who all voted Leave) have articulated is something I could live with.
    which is probably the Brexit of 70+% of Leavers

    why you remainers keep winding yourselves up in self righteous froth is beyond us

    somebody shag Meeks he needs it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    I thought you voted tactically for the LDs in Sheffield Hallam in 2015?
    I was going to do so, but then Nick Clegg said he might support a Labour/SNP government.
    I voted LD at the last election but am now a Tory member, almost the opposite path to the one you are heading on
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    538 have switched Florida and North Carolina into the Trump slot and Nevada as a dead heat, leaving just New Hampshire in the fragile firewall. The slightly good news for those of us who would pass on another "interesting" election result is that Clinton is doing better in the polls that were canvassed into November than those from the end of last week.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    The other useful thing about a spring election is that it allows her to stall Article 50 for at least a few more months, giving her a bit more time to work out WTF to do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited November 2016
    FF43 said:

    538 have switched Florida and North Carolina into the Trump slot and Nevada as a dead heat, leaving just New Hampshire in the fragile firewall. The slightly good news for those of us who would pass on another "interesting" election result is that Clinton is doing better in the polls that were canvassed into November than those from the end of last week.

    Does not help that from her schedule it seems she is looking to spend half of the weekend in bed while Trump's schedule suggests he may not have much time for any sleep at all over the next 72 hours. This reminds me of 2000 where Gore campaigned almost non-stop over the last few days while Bush went home for a rest for part of the time, coupled with Bush's drink driving conviction (see Hillary's emails) Gore won the popular vote. I can see Trump eking out a win in the popular vote even if he falls short in the EC
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MP_SE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    welcome to the party

    youll enjoy not being a sheep

    ( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )
    I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.
    you havent even seen the fking manifesto

    why are lawyers such drama queens ?

    buy a spine - and soon
    If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.
    Hard Brexit being anything other than a Brexit which is Remain in all but name?
    No, the vision of Brexit the likes of SeanT, Richard Tyndall, Robert, and Max (who all voted Leave) have articulated is something I could live with.
    which is probably the Brexit of 70+% of Leavers

    why you remainers keep winding yourselves up in self righteous froth is beyond us

    somebody shag Meeks he needs it
    Horrid thougth.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Tsk, only today the WTW Leavers were accusing Stephen Phillips of being a LINO. It's so difficult keeping track of the cross currents.

    I assumed that meant 'Lawyer In Name Only'. Did I get hold of the wrong end of the stick?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    edited November 2016
    FPT
    SeanT said:


    Indeed. If I had been offered, say, the chance to vote down the EU Constitution, I would have sat back contented. As would many millions of eurosceptics. I would have felt no need for another in/out referendum ten years later. Why? We would have stopped integration, or at least excused Britain from further integration.

    No, you wouldn't. You'd have sat back contented for maybe 25 minutes, or at the most until the next immigration and/or EU court outrage, then you'd have had a violent mood swing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Tsk, only today the WTW Leavers were accusing Stephen Phillips of being a LINO. It's so difficult keeping track of the cross currents.

    I assumed that meant 'Lawyer In Name Only'. Did I get hold of the wrong end of the stick?
    He did 1700 chargeable hours so clearly you did.
  • pinkrosepinkrose Posts: 189
    FF43 said:

    "Ministers believe Mrs May needs to win a mandate from the country to deliver a "Hard Brexit".

    This article sounds like the Liam Fox faction flying a kite. What about the commitments to Nissan to maintain no barriers on vehicle and supply chain transfers with the EU? Is that just last week's policy, to be ditched this week?

    Liam Fox faction? Lol that's Liam Fox and errr.....Liam Fox

  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,208
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Tsk, only today the WTW Leavers were accusing Stephen Phillips of being a LINO. It's so difficult keeping track of the cross currents.

    I assumed that meant 'Lawyer In Name Only'. Did I get hold of the wrong end of the stick?
    I thought he was a Bregretter.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Why now is my ipad, able to post on this site....Sunil have you fixed the site ?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    NoEasyDay said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MP_SE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    welcome to the party

    youll enjoy not being a sheep

    ( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )
    I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.
    you havent even seen the fking manifesto

    why are lawyers such drama queens ?

    buy a spine - and soon
    If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.
    Hard Brexit being anything other than a Brexit which is Remain in all but name?
    No, the vision of Brexit the likes of SeanT, Richard Tyndall, Robert, and Max (who all voted Leave) have articulated is something I could live with.
    which is probably the Brexit of 70+% of Leavers

    why you remainers keep winding yourselves up in self righteous froth is beyond us

    somebody shag Meeks he needs it
    Horrid thougth.
    In your dreams sweetheart.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    NoEasyDay said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MP_SE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    welcome to the party

    youll enjoy not being a sheep

    ( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )
    I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.
    you havent even seen the fking manifesto

    why are lawyers such drama queens ?

    buy a spine - and soon
    If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.
    Hard Brexit being anything other than a Brexit which is Remain in all but name?
    No, the vision of Brexit the likes of SeanT, Richard Tyndall, Robert, and Max (who all voted Leave) have articulated is something I could live with.
    which is probably the Brexit of 70+% of Leavers

    why you remainers keep winding yourselves up in self righteous froth is beyond us

    somebody shag Meeks he needs it
    Horrid thougth.
    I doubt there are that many oil paintings populating pbCOM...

    Obviously the devilishly handsome Pulpstar is an exception......
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    Which is why there is no way the Tories will put up such a manifesto. Get a grip. Be logical.

    Well, we can road test your theory at the by-election.

    A Tory can stand on a soft Brexit ticket, against UKIP.

    Landslide, right? That's your "logical" prediction...
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Some massive looking early Dem voting increases in texas. May not make a difference of course
    Top TX early vote increases vs. '12, thru Day 11:

    1. Travis (D) +66%
    2. El Paso (D) +62%
    3. Williamson (R) +59%
    4. Cameron (D) +51%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

    My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

    He could win.

    Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
    Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo
    Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    tyson said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MP_SE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For an election you need a manifesto. How in the short term are the Conservatives going to produce a passage on EU negotiations that satisfies the 170 MPs who supported Remain and the 145 MPs who supported Leave?

    The article says Mrs May will seek a mandate for a hard Brexit, those 170 MPs at minimum would have issues with that.

    I'd almost certainly not vote Tory in a general election for the first time in my life.
    welcome to the party

    youll enjoy not being a sheep

    ( but we all know youll crack at the last minute like SO )
    I couldn't campaign on a manifesto like that, which is sad as I love campaigning and canvassing.
    you havent even seen the fking manifesto

    why are lawyers such drama queens ?

    buy a spine - and soon
    If the manifesto contains hard Brexit and more grammar schools, as trailed I can't sell that to the voters.
    Hard Brexit being anything other than a Brexit which is Remain in all but name?
    No, the vision of Brexit the likes of SeanT, Richard Tyndall, Robert, and Max (who all voted Leave) have articulated is something I could live with.
    which is probably the Brexit of 70+% of Leavers

    why you remainers keep winding yourselves up in self righteous froth is beyond us

    somebody shag Meeks he needs it
    Horrid thougth.
    I doubt there are that many oil paintings populating pbCOM...

    Obviously the devilishly handsome Pulpstar is an exception......
    Pulpstar You are shamless...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,233
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Tsk, only today the WTW Leavers were accusing Stephen Phillips of being a LINO. It's so difficult keeping track of the cross currents.

    I assumed that meant 'Lawyer In Name Only'. Did I get hold of the wrong end of the stick?
    Surely leaver in name only. He represented a solid leave constituency and would have had a real problem supporting remain

    He is also reported to earn £750, 000 pa as a QC representing some 212 days work pa.

    On the assumption a fully committed leave conservative stands and gets elected the constituency will have a full time MP and TM a committed leaver
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    Nothing much will be agreed with the EU in the Article 50 negotiations. The EU side don't have the time, the will or probably the capacity. Bear in mind that we are breaking away from them and they have political and constitutional constraints too. We will leave either with nothing or no substantial change. The first is the default and the second isn't only up to us.

    So what we want from Brexit is much less relevant than what we are likely to get.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On the assumption a fully committed leave conservative stands and gets elected the constituency will have a full time MP and TM a committed leaver

    But SeanT reckons a half-hearted leave Conservative candidate is the "logical" outcome
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    HYUFD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

    My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

    He could win.

    Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
    Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo
    Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
    Kellyanne Conway was making a similar point on Fox. Incidentally, if Trump wins, she'll probably be the most in demand political consultant in the world.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mxwG2X89_0
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited November 2016
    On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.

    There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    I don't think it is wise to put your last rally in a swing state, if you can help it. Put it somewhere it is valuable, but make sure you can draw the crowds and attention, make it a bit of a homecoming.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

    My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

    He could win.

    Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
    Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo
    Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
    Kellyanne Conway was making a similar point on Fox. Incidentally, if Trump wins, she'll probably be the most in demand political consultant in the world.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mxwG2X89_0
    Yes, there is plenty left to run in this election yet
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    HYUFD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

    My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

    He could win.

    Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
    Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo
    Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
    hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.

    Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.

    There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.

    I wouldn't waste an election on Brexit is Brexit. I'd use it to get support of the position I wanted to tie up with Brussels.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    SeanT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    FPT

    SeanT said:


    Indeed. If I had been offered, say, the chance to vote down the EU Constitution, I would have sat back contented. As would many millions of eurosceptics. I would have felt no need for another in/out referendum ten years later. Why? We would have stopped integration, or at least excused Britain from further integration.

    No, you wouldn't. You'd have sat back contented for maybe 25 minutes, or at the most until the next immigration and/or EU court outrage, then you'd have had a violent mood swing.
    No, you're wrong. If I'd successfully been part of a campaign to say NO to the Constitution/Lisbon I would have felt no more desire to be in an EU referendum for several decades. Integration would have stopped (at least for the UK). Boring civil servants would have worked out a boring solution, over many years.

    Referendums are divisive and nasty (tho sometmes necessary) as we see. People don't want them repeated quickly.

    As an aside, of course, if we Brits had voted down the Constitution/Lisbon the wretched Article 50 would not exist. Leaving the EU could be done in a second, with just an act of parliament, and the leaving member would have VASTLY more leverage.
    We can still leave by walking away. Supposedly Article 50 will make leaving a bit less painful.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.

    There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.

    Cameron may be a more natural PM but it was his failure to win the referendum which led to the May premiership and May is more in tune with Tory voters and members than he was
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

    My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

    He could win.

    Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
    Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo
    Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
    The polls would suggest they should be worried about Pennsylvania. Their average lead is down to about 2.6 points.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    May is more in tune with Tory voters and members than he was

    Members maybe. Voters, not so much.

    The same problem as Corbyn, if not as severe
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    Interesting times

    May/Corbyn cannot unite their own parties never mind the country
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,233
    HYUFD said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.

    There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.

    Cameron may be a more natural PM but it was his failure to win the referendum which led to the May premiership and May is more in tune with Tory voters and members than he was
    And the wider electorate
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited November 2016
    619 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

    My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

    He could win.

    Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
    Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo
    Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
    hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.

    Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
    Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.

    There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.

    May is doing a Brown 2007
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

    My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

    He could win.

    Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
    Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo
    Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
    hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.

    Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
    Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
    she is in Ohio twice and florida once again before the election.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,152
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

    My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

    He could win.

    Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
    Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo
    Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
    The polls would suggest they should be worried about Pennsylvania. Their average lead is down to about 2.6 points.
    The more credible explanation for PA is that it's a relatively close contest - and doesn't have early voting, so a final rally there makes sense, worry or not.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    I wouldn't waste an election on Brexit is Brexit. I'd use it to get support of the position I wanted to tie up with Brussels.

    She can't, because the deal we get with Brussels is not in her power, it's a negotiation. If she is too specific she'll be setting herself up for failure. That is why it is so absurd for her critics to moan on about laying out he position in advance.

    However, she can't hold off such demands, unreasonable though they are, for too long. Arguably she has already run out of time; from now on, opposition will mount and become better organised.

    It's a God-awful mess, to be quite frank, essentially because the Leave side was deliberately incoherent.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.

    There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.

    That is a very good post Richard...



    Personally, I cannot see why the hell Theresa would want all this crap to be honest. She's glamorous, she obviously enjoys shopping, her husband looks to be a very nice man, and they seem to have a good relationship...she has a chronic health condition, and could possibly have at best maybe 10 years of good quality life which she could spend at her leisure....

    Why in god's name would she want a job where she possibly has to speak to Liam Fox most days, and if she gets a day away from Liam Fox, then it's David David. I think Boris probably isn't hard work....but those first two certainly are.

    Is Theresa PM for her own ego? I don't know. Hillary clearly has some ego issues that she needs to vanquish by being POTUS....but the lovely Theresa? I don't know.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On the assumption a fully committed leave conservative stands and gets elected the constituency will have a full time MP and TM a committed leaver

    But SeanT reckons a half-hearted leave Conservative candidate is the "logical" outcome
    I presume there won't be mass conservative reselections between now and 2017. In which case, in a new GE, the Tory party will be returned to power much as it is now with some added members, meaning a mildly eurosceptic, soft-Brexity kind of party, with a mandate for LEAVE but many MPs, perhaps most, reluctantly in favour of Remain.

    That says Soft Brexit, dunnit?
    What's the manifesto on Brexit? What are the limits of the broad church?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    My brother - an excitable type, but very smart - has just demanded I watch Trump at one of his more recent rallies, to see how the Donald has improved as a candidate. I chose Selma.

    My brother is right. I still find Trump seriously cringeworthy and creepy..... yet he has definitely smoothed and finessed his performance. He sounds more like a normal, lying politician, with an added, and eccentric charisma. And his policies definitely chime.

    He could win.

    Trump is doing 8 rallies over the next 3 days, Hillary just 4. In fact Trump is doing 4 tomorrow in Florida, NC, Nevada and Colorado, Hillary just one in Florida. Instead she is relying on Bill, Chelsea, the Obamas and Sanders and Kaine and Biden to do most of the final push
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/
    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
    Huckabee argues, quite plausibly , that it won't be particularly close ;

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T8gYQ8qZDXo
    Interesting he says the reason the final Clinton rally is in Philadelphia is because they are worried about Pennsylvania
    hmmmm. Its because it has no early voting and might as well have it their to lock it up.

    Trump could obviously win, but mick huckabee doesnt know the plot of Jaws, so who cares?
    Pennsylvania would not lock it up for her, Florida or Ohio would, if she is playing defense in Pennsylvania she may be in trouble
    If she loses Pennsylvania the gig's up. If she wins that but not Florida she is probably, but not definitely, OK. Ohio is lost to her already. She has to a final stop somewhere. Pennsylvania is as good a place as any.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited November 2016
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    I wouldn't waste an election on Brexit is Brexit. I'd use it to get support of the position I wanted to tie up with Brussels.

    She can't, because the deal we get with Brussels is not in her power, it's a negotiation. If she is too specific she'll be setting herself up for failure. That is why it is so absurd for her critics to moan on about laying out he position in advance.

    However, she can't hold off such demands, unreasonable though they are, for too long. Arguably she has already run out of time; from now on, opposition will mount and become better organised.

    It's a God-awful mess, to be quite frank, essentially because the Leave side was deliberately incoherent.
    I don't want her to lay her position out in advance. I want her to play her cards further down the line, when the negotiation needs to be kicked over the final hurdle. She doesn't need to actually call one, but she does need to credibly threaten to.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look.

    Until it got hard and he bailed

  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: Mrs May is indeed finding, as predicted by one of the political journalists, that the job of PM isn't as easy as Cameron made it look. Of course, she has intrinsically a particularly hard challenge, but she's made it worse for herself, with missteps such as the half-baked grammar-school nonsense, the miscalculation over Article 50, the delay in approving Heathrow expansion, the unnecessary making of enemies, the poor handling of the Hinkley Point decision, the unbalanced nature of the three key Brexit appointments, and a generally arrogant style. None of these errors are fatal, especially given the abject state of all three of the other main UK parties, but they are accumulating.

    There is no doubt in my mind that preparations are being made for a GE. There are a number of small indicators of this, some in the public domain, some inside the party. Of course, that doesn't mean that the decision has been taken; at this stage, it's probably contingency planning. But the contingency is looking every more likely.

    I can only live three scores and ten. Acording to the bible.

    And as such The stupidity of this post should not take too long.

    Cameron didnt make being pm look easy, he bullshitted.
    Hinkley point was a necessary pause.grammar schools are an irrelevance
    Heathrow has been delayed by everyone..
This discussion has been closed.

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