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I need to create a bot that when it sees "the will of the people" automatically replies with the fact that it was only 52% that voted Leave.

A far lower percentage voted for the 2005 labour government, I guess you must have been incandescent.

rpjs said:

nunu said:

619 said:

New Hampshire polls:
@WBUR
Trump 40%
Clinton 39%
.
Suffolk / @BostonGlobe
Trump 42%
Clinton 42%
.
Tight in NH

she should have put this state away by now. Tells me its a lot closer than te headline polls. RCP avreage down to 0.8% now. There will be no Clinton landslide, now.

New Hampshire is the black sheep of New England, libertarian and the most Republican-leaning of the NE states. I was always a bit suspicious of polls showing Clinton well ahead there. I still think she'll win the state though.

NH was the only Northeastern state to vote for George W Bush, which it did in 2000. It is actually probably slightly more likely to vote for Trump than Pennsylvania, RCP now has Clinton ahead by just 0.8% on average in NH compared to 3.4% in Pennsylvania. Nationwide the Clinton lead is down to 1.7%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6022.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

nunu said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

JackW said:

Let's wander down memory lane to the final week of the 2012 campaign .... This gem from the pollster Suffolk who gave up polling in 3 states because Romney had them very firmly in the bag. Said so loudly and often and then went on Fox News :

“In places like North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida, we’ve already painted those red. We’re not polling any of those states again. We’re focusing on the remaining states.”

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

Virginia??? Was he high at the time?

He drove from Blacksburg to Harrisonburg and didn't see a single Obama yard sign

What demographic changes have made Virginia so safe? Hipster city types?

Washington DC.

logical_song said:

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

Black_Rook said:

All the same, if A50 does have to go to a vote in Parliament then it really ought to be shoved through as a confidence issue. The Government can't afford to let Remainers in the Commons force it into revealing its negotiating position to the EU in advance, and nor can it tolerate lengthy delaying tactics in the Lords. The wretched state of the Opposition implies that if Theresa May does find herself having to go the country, then at least she ought to be able to relieve herself of the burden of a tiny majority.

My bold.

I don't see why the Government can't play it with a straight bat.

"The Government doesn't believe it is in the national interest to reveal our negotiation position in public prior to commencing discussions. Parliament will have the opportunity to discuss and vote on the conclusions of our negotiations in due course. For now we are simply asking Parliament to endorse the decision made by the voters in the referendum and authorise us to exercise Article 50 at a time that we see fit within the next 12 months"

Then rinse and repeat the same answer to pretty much every question & dare Labour to vote it down

Yup, a single line enabling act, vote down all amendments and get it through the Commons in one sitting. Dare the Lords to go against the will of the people. If they do then flood it with Tory peers or threaten them with elections.

I need to create a bot that when it sees "the will of the people" automatically replies with the fact that it was only 52% that voted Leave.

And we can create a bot to point out that that is how the system works and if you can't be bothered to vote you don't get to complain about the result.

JackW said:

Marist have new polls of AZ TX & GA coming out within the hour.

Such a tease....

JackW said:

Marist have new polls of AZ TX & GA coming out within the hour.

Is your ARSE secretly in gear? You seem to be on top of all the numbers.

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

A spike in yesterday vote sees AA voters in Florida up to 12%, and rising, of early voting and just below their 13% demographic :

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794224225548730368?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

So even on their highest turnout day the AA vote in Florida is still below that in 2012!

1 point below with early voting continuing.

So still below

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

A spike in yesterday vote sees AA voters in Florida up to 12%, and rising, of early voting and just below their 13% demographic :

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794224225548730368?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

So even on their highest turnout day the AA vote in Florida is still below that in 2012!

1 point below with early voting continuing.

So still below

Clearly.

Excuse my stupidity. But what would happen if the govt planned the parliamentary A50 vote for next week?

logical_song said:

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

Black_Rook said:

All the same, if A50 does have to go to a vote in Parliament then it really ought to be shoved through as a confidence issue. The Government can't afford to let Remainers in the Commons force it into revealing its negotiating position to the EU in advance, and nor can it tolerate lengthy delaying tactics in the Lords. The wretched state of the Opposition implies that if Theresa May does find herself having to go the country, then at least she ought to be able to relieve herself of the burden of a tiny majority.

My bold.

I don't see why the Government can't play it with a straight bat.

"The Government doesn't believe it is in the national interest to reveal our negotiation position in public prior to commencing discussions. Parliament will have the opportunity to discuss and vote on the conclusions of our negotiations in due course. For now we are simply asking Parliament to endorse the decision made by the voters in the referendum and authorise us to exercise Article 50 at a time that we see fit within the next 12 months"

Then rinse and repeat the same answer to pretty much every question & dare Labour to vote it down

Yup, a single line enabling act, vote down all amendments and get it through the Commons in one sitting. Dare the Lords to go against the will of the people. If they do then flood it with Tory peers or threaten them with elections.

I need to create a bot that when it sees "the will of the people" automatically replies with the fact that it was only 52% that voted Leave.

There is a case to be made that referendums on such significant issues should require more than 50% +1 vote in order to be approved. Indeed, that petition which was started by a Leaver but coopted by remainers after the vote made such a case. But there is no rule right now, so it doesn't really matter if it was 52 or 75.

Must say reading the judgement the government's case did look weak, so it will be interesting to see what the appeal arguments and judgements hinge on.

I did enjoy it stated the fact the point raised was justiciable, for the courts to decide, was not contested by either side in the case. Despite the wishes of the claimants as to what might happen if parliament gets to vote, and despite the government for obvious reasons putting the case that was not necessary, neither side disputed that it was a proper question for the court, despite the more angry getting all huffy about judicial interference. As it said: We are not in any way concerned with the use that may be made of the Crown's prerogative power, if such a power can as a matter of law be used in respect of Article 50, or what will follow if the Crown's prerogative powers cannot be so used.

RobD said:

AnneJGP said:

RobD said:

AnneJGP said:

Charles said:

Black_Rook said:

All the same, if A50 does have to go to a vote in Parliament then it really ought to be shoved through as a confidence issue. The Government can't afford to let Remainers in the Commons force it into revealing its negotiating position to the EU in advance, and nor can it tolerate lengthy delaying tactics in the Lords. The wretched state of the Opposition implies that if Theresa May does find herself having to go the country, then at least she ought to be able to relieve herself of the burden of a tiny majority.

My bold.

I don't see why the Government can't play it with a straight bat.

"The Government doesn't believe it is in the national interest to reveal our negotiation position in public prior to commencing discussions. Parliament will have the opportunity to discuss and vote on the conclusions of our negotiations in due course. For now we are simply asking Parliament to endorse the decision made by the voters in the referendum and authorise us to exercise Article 50 at a time that we see fit within the next 12 months"

Then rinse and repeat the same answer to pretty much every question & dare Labour to vote it down

Yes. I am very much in favour of playing things straight.

It may well be a long and arduous road even to get to the start of extricating ourselves from the EU, but it is, IMHO, best that everybody plays every card they can think of to stop it.

Even if they succeed, we have still made a huge advance in the matter. Those who wish to leave the EU now know that they account for about half of the electorate.

True, we will never be allowed another referendum, but other ways & means will crop up - other political parties.

Ah, so the court case was about trying to block Brexit!

Do you infer that from my comment? How on earth could I possibly know? Maybe I did assume that without realising it, but it hardly matters.

(Incidentally, I just noticed a bit on Yahoo about Ms Sturgeon joining in with the court case, but couldn't catch the link - anyone have it?)

You said that it is "best that everybody plays every card they can think of to stop it".

Yes, I think it is best. If the blocking efforts of those who'd prefer to remain fail, they will at least know they did everything they could to stop us leaving. If those efforts succeed, well, those who'd prefer to leave will carry on the struggle.

Edward Heath lied to get us to vote in favour of joining the Common Market. His lies need to be washed out of the body politic. Playing things straight now is the only way to do it.

Richard_Tyndall said:

logical_song said:

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

Black_Rook said:

All the same, if A50 does have to go to a vote in Parliament then it really ought to be shoved through as a confidence issue. The Government can't afford to let Remainers in the Commons force it into revealing its negotiating position to the EU in advance, and nor can it tolerate lengthy delaying tactics in the Lords. The wretched state of the Opposition implies that if Theresa May does find herself having to go the country, then at least she ought to be able to relieve herself of the burden of a tiny majority.

My bold. I don't see why the Government can't play it with a straight bat.

"The Government doesn't believe it is in the national interest to reveal our negotiation position in public prior to commencing discussions. Parliament will have the opportunity to discuss and vote on the conclusions of our negotiations in due course. For now we are simply asking Parliament to endorse the decision made by the voters in the referendum and authorise us to exercise Article 50 at a time that we see fit within the next 12 months"

Then rinse and repeat the same answer to pretty much every question & dare Labour to vote it down

Yup, a single line enabling act, vote down all amendments and get it through the Commons in one sitting. Dare the Lords to go against the will of the people. If they do then flood it with Tory peers or threaten them with elections.

I need to create a bot that when it sees "the will of the people" automatically replies with the fact that it was only 52% that voted Leave.

And we can create a bot to point out that that is how the system works and if you can't be bothered to vote you don't get to complain about the result.

There wasn`t a real question, Mr Tyndall. Nobody knew exactly what would happen next, whichever side won the referendum. This is the problem now facing the country, and more especially the Tory Party. Mrs May is onto a loser. No wonder she wants to cut and run.

Trump's chance of winning up to 36% with 538:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/794272711300284416

Fenster said:

Excuse my stupidity. But what would happen if the govt planned the parliamentary A50 vote for next week?

Wednesday - when everyone is bleary eyed from the US election perhaps?

AndyJS said:

Trump's chance of winning up to 36% with 538:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

Choo choo!!

logical_song said:

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

Black_Rook said:

All the same, if A50 does have to go to a vote in Parliament then it really ought to be shoved through as a confidence issue. The Government can't afford to let Remainers in the Commons force it into revealing its negotiating position to the EU in advance, and nor can it tolerate lengthy delaying tactics in the Lords. The wretched state of the Opposition implies that if Theresa May does find herself having to go the country, then at least she ought to be able to relieve herself of the burden of a tiny majority.

My bold.

I don't see why the Government can't play it with a straight bat.

"The Government doesn't believe it is in the national interest to reveal our negotiation position in public prior to commencing discussions. Parliament will have the opportunity to discuss and vote on the conclusions of our negotiations in due course. For now we are simply asking Parliament to endorse the decision made by the voters in the referendum and authorise us to exercise Article 50 at a time that we see fit within the next 12 months"

Then rinse and repeat the same answer to pretty much every question & dare Labour to vote it down

Yup, a single line enabling act, vote down all amendments and get it through the Commons in one sitting. Dare the Lords to go against the will of the people. If they do then flood it with Tory peers or threaten them with elections.

I need to create a bot that when it sees "the will of the people" automatically replies with the fact that it was only 52% that voted Leave.

Like De Valera, you only have to look into your heart to discern the will of the people. You'll be telling us that the Referendum result was actually a vote for more Europe.

PClipp said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

logical_song said:

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

Black_Rook said:

All the same, if A50 does have to go to a vote in Parliament then it really ought to be shoved through as a confidence issue. The Government can't afford to let Remainers in the Commons force it into revealing its negotiating position to the EU in advance, and nor can it tolerate lengthy delaying tactics in the Lords. The wretched state of the Opposition implies that if Theresa May does find herself having to go the country, then at least she ought to be able to relieve herself of the burden of a tiny majority.

My bold. I don't see why the Government can't play it with a straight bat.

"The Government doesn't believe it is in the national interest to reveal our negotiation position in public prior to commencing discussions. Parliament will have the opportunity to discuss and vote on the conclusions of our negotiations in due course. For now we are simply asking Parliament to endorse the decision made by the voters in the referendum and authorise us to exercise Article 50 at a time that we see fit within the next 12 months"

Then rinse and repeat the same answer to pretty much every question & dare Labour to vote it down

Yup, a single line enabling act, vote down all amendments and get it through the Commons in one sitting. Dare the Lords to go against the will of the people. If they do then flood it with Tory peers or threaten them with elections.

I need to create a bot that when it sees "the will of the people" automatically replies with the fact that it was only 52% that voted Leave.

And we can create a bot to point out that that is how the system works and if you can't be bothered to vote you don't get to complain about the result.

There wasn`t a real question, Mr Tyndall. Nobody knew exactly what would happen next, whichever side won the referendum. This is the problem now facing the country, and more especially the Tory Party. Mrs May is onto a loser. No wonder she wants to cut and run.

And yet more people voted for Brexit than have voted for the winning party in any General Election in British history.

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

Trump's chance of winning up to 36% with 538:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

Choo choo!!

PEC on the other hand have Hilary at 98% on the conservative model.

99% on the other one.

RobD said:

JackW said:

Marist have new polls of AZ TX & GA coming out within the hour.

Such a tease....

Should all be Trump leads.Arizona within margin of error, the rest big Trump leads, I think

Tissue_Price said:

Alistair said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

Trump's chance of winning up to 36% with 538:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

Choo choo!!

PEC on the other hand have Hilary at 98% on the conservative model.

99% on the other one.

That just does not pass the smell test at all; clearly a half-arsed model for the sake of having one.

Has been predicting us elections for longer and more accurately than 538.

Alistair said:

Tissue_Price said:

Alistair said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

Trump's chance of winning up to 36% with 538:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

Choo choo!!

PEC on the other hand have Hilary at 98% on the conservative model.

99% on the other one.

That just does not pass the smell test at all; clearly a half-arsed model for the sake of having one.

Has been predicting us elections for longer and more accurately than 538.

And it will probably be right again. But this election is clearly unusual, and the 99% figure does not look well-calibrated.

A bunch of new polls just appeared:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

Alistair said:

RobD said:

A bunch of new polls just appeared:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

I don't think Trump will be retweeting this round of Auto Alliance polls.

Yep, not great for him!

Tissue_Price said:

Alistair said:

Tissue_Price said:

Alistair said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

Trump's chance of winning up to 36% with 538:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

Choo choo!!

PEC on the other hand have Hilary at 98% on the conservative model.

99% on the other one.

That just does not pass the smell test at all; clearly a half-arsed model for the sake of having one.

Has been predicting us elections for longer and more accurately than 538.

And it will probably be right again. But this election is clearly unusual, and the 99% figure does not look well-calibrated.

It completely ignores momentum when making it's projection.

RobD said:

new thread!

How long has it been there!

Richard_Tyndall said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/794220149398208512

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/

Funny given that we were taken into the EEC without any recourse to Parliament. Like I said. Europhile hypocrites.

That said I think it is right that Parliament make the decision even if I think that might mean we do not leave. But then I am not a hypocrite like the Remoaners.

But - Parliament did vote in 1972.
Heath made it a free vote (in order to make it easier for Labour In MPs to vote In, reportedly)

Tissue_Price said:

Alistair said:

Tissue_Price said:

Alistair said:

Tissue_Price said:

Alistair said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

Trump's chance of winning up to 36% with 538:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

Choo choo!!

PEC on the other hand have Hilary at 98% on the conservative model.

99% on the other one.

That just does not pass the smell test at all; clearly a half-arsed model for the sake of having one.

Has been predicting us elections for longer and more accurately than 538.

And it will probably be right again. But this election is clearly unusual, and the 99% figure does not look well-calibrated.

It completely ignores momentum when making it's projection.

Which is fine. So does 538, I believe. But it must be ignoring the chance of the polls being systematically off, as they have been before.

As far as I was aware 538 had a momentum component.

Richard_Tyndall said:

PClipp said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

logical_song said:

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

Black_Rook said:

All the same, if A50 does have to go to a vote in Parliament then it really ought to be shoved through as a confidence issue. The Government can't afford to let Remainers in the Commons force it into revealing its negotiating position to the EU in advance, and nor can it tolerate lengthy delaying tactics in the Lords. The wretched state of the Opposition implies that if Theresa May does find herself having to go the country, then at least she ought to be able to relieve herself of the burden of a tiny majority.

My bold. I don't see why the Government can't play it with a straight bat.

"The Government doesn't believe it is in the national interest to reveal our negotiation position in public prior to commencing discussions. Parliament will have the opportunity to discuss and vote on the conclusions of our negotiations in due course. For now we are simply asking Parliament to endorse the decision made by the voters in the referendum and authorise us to exercise Article 50 at a time that we see fit within the next 12 months"

Then rinse and repeat the same answer to pretty much every question & dare Labour to vote it down

Yup, a single line enabling act, vote down all amendments and get it through the Commons in one sitting. Dare the Lords to go against the will of the people. If they do then flood it with Tory peers or threaten them with elections.

I need to create a bot that when it sees "the will of the people" automatically replies with the fact that it was only 52% that voted Leave.

And we can create a bot to point out that that is how the system works and if you can't be bothered to vote you don't get to complain about the result.

There wasn`t a real question, Mr Tyndall. Nobody knew exactly what would happen next, whichever side won the referendum. This is the problem now facing the country, and more especially the Tory Party. Mrs May is onto a loser. No wonder she wants to cut and run.

And yet more people voted for Brexit than have voted for the winning party in any General Election in British history.

And more people voted against Brexit than for any winning party. Though both fell short of the viewing figures for the episode of Eastenders when Den told Angie he wanted a divorce.

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/794306054570070021

Insanity.

On the part of the newspaper, needless to say, not the judges.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

PClipp said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

logical_song said:

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

Black_Rook said:

All the same, if A50 does have to go to a vote in Parliament then it really ought to be shoved through as a confidence issue. The Government can't afford to let Remainers in the Commons force it into revealing its negotiating position to the EU in advance, and nor can it tolerate lengthy delaying tactics in the Lords. The wretched state of the Opposition implies that if Theresa May does find herself having to go the country, then at least she ought to be able to relieve herself of the burden of a tiny majority.

My bold. I don't see why the Government can't play it with a straight bat.

"The Government doesn't believe it is in the national interest to reveal our negotiation position in public prior to commencing discussions. Parliament will have the opportunity to discuss and vote on the conclusions of our negotiations in due course. For now we are simply asking Parliament to endorse the decision made by the voters in the referendum and authorise us to exercise Article 50 at a time that we see fit within the next 12 months"

Then rinse and repeat the same answer to pretty much every question & dare Labour to vote it down

Yup, a single line enabling act, vote down all amendments and get it through the Commons in one sitting. Dare the Lords to go against the will of the people. If they do then flood it with Tory peers or threaten them with elections.

I need to create a bot that when it sees "the will of the people" automatically replies with the fact that it was only 52% that voted Leave.

And we can create a bot to point out that that is how the system works and if you can't be bothered to vote you don't get to complain about the result.

There wasn`t a real question, Mr Tyndall. Nobody knew exactly what would happen next, whichever side won the referendum. This is the problem now facing the country, and more especially the Tory Party. Mrs May is onto a loser. No wonder she wants to cut and run.

And yet more people voted for Brexit than have voted for the winning party in any General Election in British history.

And more people voted against Brexit than for any winning party. Though both fell short of the viewing figures for the episode of Eastenders when Den told Angie he wanted a divorce.

More people voted against REMAIN than voted against LEAVE!

Thanks for reminding me. I know it was in the papers and everything, but it is easy to let these things slip out of your mind.