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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What happened when Guido got into an after dinner discussion with Nigel Farage and Arron Banks on who’ll be President
So dinner; PM said she'd have Boris put down like a dog, Craig Oliver made her retch, bet @Arron_banks & @Nigel_Farage £20,000. G'night. pic.twitter.com/yliVFOUwnn
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Glorious first!0
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In the spirit of conciliation and cross-party friendship I'd like to extend a dinner invitation to Nigel Farage and Arron Banks.0
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Second! Like REMAIN and YES....0
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New University of Denver poll shows a Tie in Colorado
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html0 -
Worth listening to that Osborne clip OGH posted - like "Bob the Builder" May, wittier than you might expect......0
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Very good, hah!CarlottaVance said:Worth listening to that Osborne clip OGH posted - like "Bob the Builder" May, wittier than you might expect......
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"If he wants to Paul can offset the wager on Betfair and pocket a nice profit. The current price as I write is 1.41."
Nice profit? Less than 10%, which is in no way sufficient to offset the risk of one or both of these bets not being paid up.0 -
First! Like the Cubs. Well, eighth actually. But well done the cubs. Only 107 years.0
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Cracking stuff from George there, not to be missed.0
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National - IPSOS/Reuters - Sample 1,772 - 28 Oct - 1 Nov
Clinton 44.7 .. Trump 37.4
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:10 -
Where else can you get a 10% ROI in under a Fortnight?dogbasket said:"If he wants to Paul can offset the wager on Betfair and pocket a nice profit. The current price as I write is 1.41."
Nice profit? Less than 10%, which is in no way sufficient to offset the risk of one or both of these bets not being paid up.
One of these bets will win.0 -
George very funny. Especially about Gove.0
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It seems that Nigel takes his duties as cheerleader for Trump pretty seriously. Now that he has campaigned himself out of 2 jobs (MEP and leader) losing £4.5K is not a trivial sum.0
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Just heard it.. If Osborne had done a bit more of this prior to the referendum, he might now be in a better place.0
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Every pollster seems to be having an outlier....JackW said:National - IPSOS/Reuters - Sample 1,772 - 28 Oct - 1 Nov
Clinton 44.7 .. Trump 37.4
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:10 -
A reminder of a huge talent lost to the party - for now....Casino_Royale said:Just heard it.. If Osborne had done a bit more of this prior to the referendum, he might now be in a better place.
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More to the point WE might be in a better place. Remaining in the EUCasino_Royale said:Just heard it.. If Osborne had done a bit more of this prior to the referendum, he might now be in a better place.
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Yawn.Roger said:
More to the point WE might be in a better place. Remaining in the EUCasino_Royale said:Just heard it.. If Osborne had done a bit more of this prior to the referendum, he might now be in a better place.
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Which one would you be particularly worried about?dogbasket said:"If he wants to Paul can offset the wager on Betfair and pocket a nice profit. The current price as I write is 1.41."
Nice profit? Less than 10%, which is in no way sufficient to offset the risk of one or both of these bets not being paid up.0 -
How bad a place is he in now, really? He's in his mid 40s, was Chancellor of the Exchequer for six years, during which he kept the UK out of recession through the Eurozone crisis. He could continue as an MP for an indefinite period, while banking non-Exec and speaking fees. And he is still plenty young enough for a second coming.Casino_Royale said:Just heard it.. If Osborne had done a bit more of this prior to the referendum, he might now be in a better place.
Of course, in five years time he'll either be regarded as a prophet or an idiot for his determination to keep the UK in the EU. Who knows which at this point in time?0 -
Still at an age before many Prime Ministers had barely started their political careers.felix said:
A reminder of a huge talent lost to the party - for now....Casino_Royale said:Just heard it.. If Osborne had done a bit more of this prior to the referendum, he might now be in a better place.
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Unless their something wrong with my Maths, Mike must have posted this half asleep. Taking the betfair odds at face value, the guaranteed profit is 4% (on the c.£4,330 which would be tied up in Betfair - more like 1% if you had to factor in the £10k on the original bet).rcs1000 said:
Which one would you be particularly worried about?dogbasket said:"If he wants to Paul can offset the wager on Betfair and pocket a nice profit. The current price as I write is 1.41."
Nice profit? Less than 10%, which is in no way sufficient to offset the risk of one or both of these bets not being paid up.
But factor in Betfair's commission and there's no way to lay off at those odds, except at a loss.0 -
Greens not standing in Richmond Park, cancels UKIP tbh.0
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Osborne is the new Hague0
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Mike may, of course, have a highly discounted Betfair commission rate...alex. said:
Unless their something wrong with my Maths, Mike must have posted this half asleep. Taking the betfair odds at face value, the guaranteed profit is 4% (on the c.£4,330 which would be tied up in Betfair - more like 1% if you had to factor in the £10k on the original bet).rcs1000 said:
Which one would you be particularly worried about?dogbasket said:"If he wants to Paul can offset the wager on Betfair and pocket a nice profit. The current price as I write is 1.41."
Nice profit? Less than 10%, which is in no way sufficient to offset the risk of one or both of these bets not being paid up.
But factor in Betfair's commission and there's no way to lay off at those odds, except at a loss.0 -
I think you mean Paul...rcs1000 said:
Mike may, of course, have a highly discounted Betfair commission rate...alex. said:
Unless their something wrong with my Maths, Mike must have posted this half asleep. Taking the betfair odds at face value, the guaranteed profit is 4% (on the c.£4,330 which would be tied up in Betfair - more like 1% if you had to factor in the £10k on the original bet).rcs1000 said:
Which one would you be particularly worried about?dogbasket said:"If he wants to Paul can offset the wager on Betfair and pocket a nice profit. The current price as I write is 1.41."
Nice profit? Less than 10%, which is in no way sufficient to offset the risk of one or both of these bets not being paid up.
But factor in Betfair's commission and there's no way to lay off at those odds, except at a loss.
But even with a heavily discounted rate we're probably talking a 1-2% return tops. It's not quite 10%!
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Last night's editions O'Reilly Factor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qh9Ld3-88K4
And Megyn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ruqb7FOFFLY0 -
1.41 looks a very good price for Hillary on current polling, never mind 1.45. The other side of the bet is effectively a bet that the polls are systematically wrong and the interpretation placed on early voting data is misplaced. They might be but I wouldn't be rushing to that assumption.0
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From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.0
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Bill Mitchell
The fact the FBI leaked to FoxNews all this new stuff on the Clinton Foundation Investigation makes me more sure than ever, she's done.
Golly
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/11/breaking-fbi-now-99-certain-least-5-foreign-services-hacked-hillarys-server/
And
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1139305239458692&id=141513472571212&_rdr0 -
Bill mitchell???PlatoSaid said:Bill Mitchell
The fact the FBI leaked to FoxNews all this new stuff on the Clinton Foundation Investigation makes me more sure than ever, she's done.
Golly
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/11/breaking-fbi-now-99-certain-least-5-foreign-services-hacked-hillarys-server/
ha ha ha ha ha ha0 -
Maybe we could have 'Osborne, The Musical' with the feature song "I'm going to borrow, borrow, borrow".rcs1000 said:
How bad a place is he in now, really? He's in his mid 40s, was Chancellor of the Exchequer for six years, during which he kept the UK out of recession through the Eurozone crisis. He could continue as an MP for an indefinite period, while banking non-Exec and speaking fees. And he is still plenty young enough for a second coming.Casino_Royale said:Just heard it.. If Osborne had done a bit more of this prior to the referendum, he might now be in a better place.
Of course, in five years time he'll either be regarded as a prophet or an idiot for his determination to keep the UK in the EU. Who knows which at this point in time?
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AP: State Department fed info to Clinton campaign after she had left govt & modified draft press release for her https://t.co/RKNcY7GGMb
https://www.yahoo.com/news/hacked-emails-show-clinton-campaign-165658103.html0 -
He could still be in the cabinet, or foreign secretary, for example.rcs1000 said:
How bad a place is he in now, really? He's in his mid 40s, was Chancellor of the Exchequer for six years, during which he kept the UK out of recession through the Eurozone crisis. He could continue as an MP for an indefinite period, while banking non-Exec and speaking fees. And he is still plenty young enough for a second coming.Casino_Royale said:Just heard it.. If Osborne had done a bit more of this prior to the referendum, he might now be in a better place.
Of course, in five years time he'll either be regarded as a prophet or an idiot for his determination to keep the UK in the EU. Who knows which at this point in time?0 -
Given recent polling errm history I'd say 1.41 is a fair price for the sort of "miss" needed actually. I'm reasonably balanced.AlastairMeeks said:1.41 looks a very good price for Hillary on current polling, never mind 1.45. The other side of the bet is effectively a bet that the polls are systematically wrong and the interpretation placed on early voting data is misplaced. They might be but I wouldn't be rushing to that assumption.
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Good morning, everyone.0
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I think the PM will draft in Osborne sooner rather than later. Gove too. Both have too much talent to be sitting on the back benches. There is definitely something about tents and the direction of piss.0
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I was wondering when this would happen. Zac is a green conservative, an endangered breed which needs protection.Pulpstar said:Greens not standing in Richmond Park, cancels UKIP tbh.
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While Hammond does seem set to increase borrowing, and "spend,spend,spend!". Or is it to be a punishment budget as George forecast?another_richard said:
Maybe we could have 'Osborne, The Musical' with the feature song "I'm going to borrow, borrow, borrow".rcs1000 said:
How bad a place is he in now, really? He's in his mid 40s, was Chancellor of the Exchequer for six years, during which he kept the UK out of recession through the Eurozone crisis. He could continue as an MP for an indefinite period, while banking non-Exec and speaking fees. And he is still plenty young enough for a second coming.Casino_Royale said:Just heard it.. If Osborne had done a bit more of this prior to the referendum, he might now be in a better place.
Of course, in five years time he'll either be regarded as a prophet or an idiot for his determination to keep the UK in the EU. Who knows which at this point in time?
The only real alternative to a continuing toxic deficit is tax rises.0 -
"Michael gove and I remain good friends, because he fortunately never offered me his support."
Ouch.0 -
There must be some interesting political history for those of us brought up in the Seventies too.AlastairMeeks said:From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.
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0
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Broadly I agree, but I don't think much weight should be placed on early voting numbers, for the reasons given by Sean Trende. We should assume that she's about 2-3% ahead.AlastairMeeks said:1.41 looks a very good price for Hillary on current polling, never mind 1.45. The other side of the bet is effectively a bet that the polls are systematically wrong and the interpretation placed on early voting data is misplaced. They might be but I wouldn't be rushing to that assumption.
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We're all pretending otherwise for the moment.foxinsoxuk said:
While Hammond does seem set to increase borrowing, and "spend,spend,spend!". Or is it to be a punishment budget as George forecast?another_richard said:
Maybe we could have 'Osborne, The Musical' with the feature song "I'm going to borrow, borrow, borrow".rcs1000 said:
How bad a place is he in now, really? He's in his mid 40s, was Chancellor of the Exchequer for six years, during which he kept the UK out of recession through the Eurozone crisis. He could continue as an MP for an indefinite period, while banking non-Exec and speaking fees. And he is still plenty young enough for a second coming.Casino_Royale said:Just heard it.. If Osborne had done a bit more of this prior to the referendum, he might now be in a better place.
Of course, in five years time he'll either be regarded as a prophet or an idiot for his determination to keep the UK in the EU. Who knows which at this point in time?
The only real alternative to a continuing toxic deficit is tax rises.0 -
Or he could just pinch Jeremy Corbyn's policy and print a shitload of money to spend on things the voters like.foxinsoxuk said:
While Hammond does seem set to increase borrowing, and "spend,spend,spend!". Or is it to be a punishment budget as George forecast?another_richard said:
Maybe we could have 'Osborne, The Musical' with the feature song "I'm going to borrow, borrow, borrow".rcs1000 said:
How bad a place is he in now, really? He's in his mid 40s, was Chancellor of the Exchequer for six years, during which he kept the UK out of recession through the Eurozone crisis. He could continue as an MP for an indefinite period, while banking non-Exec and speaking fees. And he is still plenty young enough for a second coming.Casino_Royale said:Just heard it.. If Osborne had done a bit more of this prior to the referendum, he might now be in a better place.
Of course, in five years time he'll either be regarded as a prophet or an idiot for his determination to keep the UK in the EU. Who knows which at this point in time?
The only real alternative to a continuing toxic deficit is tax rises.0 -
The State Department provided her with an advance copy of their official response to a newspaper allegation about her, for comment?PlatoSaid said:
AP: State Department fed info to Clinton campaign after she had left govt & modified draft press release for her https://t.co/RKNcY7GGMb
https://www.yahoo.com/news/hacked-emails-show-clinton-campaign-165658103.html
And you've posted this how many times now?0 -
But the Greens are backing the LibDems.rottenborough said:
I was wondering when this would happen. Zac is a green conservative, an endangered breed which needs protection.Pulpstar said:Greens not standing in Richmond Park, cancels UKIP tbh.
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The centrist Tories do seem rather keen on stealing Labour's clothes.edmundintokyo said:
Or he could just pinch Jeremy Corbyn's policy and print a shitload of money to spend on things the voters like.foxinsoxuk said:
While Hammond does seem set to increase borrowing, and "spend,spend,spend!". Or is it to be a punishment budget as George forecast?another_richard said:
Maybe we could have 'Osborne, The Musical' with the feature song "I'm going to borrow, borrow, borrow".rcs1000 said:
How bad a place is he in now, really? He's in his mid 40s, was Chancellor of the Exchequer for six years, during which he kept the UK out of recession through the Eurozone crisis. He could continue as an MP for an indefinite period, while banking non-Exec and speaking fees. And he is still plenty young enough for a second coming.Casino_Royale said:Just heard it.. If Osborne had done a bit more of this prior to the referendum, he might now be in a better place.
Of course, in five years time he'll either be regarded as a prophet or an idiot for his determination to keep the UK in the EU. Who knows which at this point in time?
The only real alternative to a continuing toxic deficit is tax rises.
Lots of lovely sovereignty; but skint.0 -
Went to Belfast for a friend's wedding a few years back. Jolly having cocktails in the most bombed hotel in Europe etc - but my Nain was from the Falls Road; a bus tour the following day was unbelievably eye opening.foxinsoxuk said:
There must be some interesting political history for those of us brought up in the Seventies too.AlastairMeeks said:From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.
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As you approach you 50,000th post and you ponder the next name change why not "PLATOTHINKS"? It would make a change from litering every thread with unrecycled garbage.0
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logical_song said:
But the Greens are backing the LibDems.rottenborough said:
I was wondering when this would happen. Zac is a green conservative, an endangered breed which needs protection.Pulpstar said:Greens not standing in Richmond Park, cancels UKIP tbh.
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National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 2,938 - 3 Nov
Clinton 42.5 .. Trump 47.5
Note - Trump winning the 18-34 demographic, the gender divide by 10.3 points and one third more Hispanics than Romney ..... Chortle ....
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/0 -
Less than 2 hours to wait until we hear the Article 50 verdict. Not that it matters as it will go to the Supreme Court and will have a majority in the House of Commons but exciting nonetheless.0
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No interest on PB over the 10am decision on the Article 50 High Court case.
Which is interesting in itself.0 -
Is George W Bush voting for Hillary?
and George HW Bush too. Looks that way.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-378558940 -
There was an article yesterday warning not to put too much emphasis on early voting, in 2010 and 2014 higher than expected early voting by Democrats led some to believe they could hold Congress and the Senate. In 2014 in Iowa for instance Ernst trailed badly in early voting but won comfortably on the nightSean_F said:
Broadly I agree, but I don't think much weight should be placed on early voting numbers, for the reasons given by Sean Trende. We should assume that she's about 2-3% ahead.AlastairMeeks said:1.41 looks a very good price for Hillary on current polling, never mind 1.45. The other side of the bet is effectively a bet that the polls are systematically wrong and the interpretation placed on early voting data is misplaced. They might be but I wouldn't be rushing to that assumption.
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F1: some interesting gossip:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37822956
Lance Stroll has long been tipped to take Massa's place at Williams and it seems that, and Bottas' retention, will be announced today.
Horner's view that more gravel traps and less run off would make track limits matter more as well as avoiding the nonsense of two leading cars missing out the first corner a thing of the past is quite right.0 -
Of course they are. They're socialists first and foremost not environmentalists. They'd back any polluting lefty over an environmentally friendly Tory every time.logical_song said:
But the Greens are backing the LibDems.rottenborough said:
I was wondering when this would happen. Zac is a green conservative, an endangered breed which needs protection.Pulpstar said:Greens not standing in Richmond Park, cancels UKIP tbh.
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I'm not touching that hot potato. No doubt will be appealed, but even by Brexit standards we'll get overdone whinges or triumph from those who want to stop Brexit or those who do t want parliament involved, never mind involving them need not prevent it and indeed probably wouldn't.Bromptonaut said:No interest on PB over the 10am decision on the Article 50 High Court case.
Which is interesting in itself.0 -
Colorado is increasingly looking like the pivotal state for both campaigns, win there and you win the Electoral Collegevik said:New University of Denver poll shows a Tie in Colorado
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html0 -
Re Northern Ireland
From my limited trips there I've thought that the three southern counties of Fermanagh, Armagh and Down are rather reminiscent of SW England while the three northern counties of Londonderry, Tyrone and Antrim feel much more like Scotland.
IIRC the two areas had rather different settlement patterns in the 17th century.
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Miss Plato, I'd keep your name, but it's up to you, of course.
Mr. Bromptonaut, it's been delayed ages and we've discussed it a lot. Besides, this is like the starter before the main course of the judgement. And the judgement itself is likely only the first leg ahead of appeal.
It's ridiculous the judiciary may meddle in politics in this way.0 -
Maybe so but its often a bad sign when people start mocking subsamples.JackW said:National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 2,938 - 3 Nov
Clinton 42.5 .. Trump 47.5
Note - Trump winning the 18-34 demographic, the gender divide by 10.3 points and one third more Hispanics than Romney ..... Chortle ....
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
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hmmm. What about the precious presidential election though? Dems vote more for those.HYUFD said:
There was an article yesterday warning not to put too much emphasis on early voting, in 2010 and 2014 higher than expected early voting by Democrats led some to believe they could hold Congress and the Senate. In 2014 in Iowa for instance Ernst trailed badly in early voting but won comfortably on the nightSean_F said:
Broadly I agree, but I don't think much weight should be placed on early voting numbers, for the reasons given by Sean Trende. We should assume that she's about 2-3% ahead.AlastairMeeks said:1.41 looks a very good price for Hillary on current polling, never mind 1.45. The other side of the bet is effectively a bet that the polls are systematically wrong and the interpretation placed on early voting data is misplaced. They might be but I wouldn't be rushing to that assumption.
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Some are saying the Government won't appeal for fear it will end up at the ECJ. Now that would be delicious.kle4 said:
I'm not touching that hot potato. No doubt will be appealed, but even by Brexit standards we'll get overdone whinges or triumph from those who want to stop Brexit or those who do t want parliament involved, never mind involving them need not prevent it and indeed probably wouldn't.Bromptonaut said:No interest on PB over the 10am decision on the Article 50 High Court case.
Which is interesting in itself.
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Saw Osborne at a Tory dinner in Epping Forest a few weeks ago, he can be quite funny when he wants to be0
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I'm very interested. The reasoning will be at least as important as the decision. This isn't just about Brexit, it's about how we are governed.Bromptonaut said:No interest on PB over the 10am decision on the Article 50 High Court case.
Which is interesting in itself.0 -
Probably the outlier of the day is this one just added to 538 (though concluded nearly two weeks ago):MarqueeMark said:
Every pollster seems to be having an outlier....JackW said:National - IPSOS/Reuters - Sample 1,772 - 28 Oct - 1 Nov
Clinton 44.7 .. Trump 37.4
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1
Louisiana OCT. 15-21 The Times-Picayune/Lucid (614) C: 40% T: 43% J: 6% Trump +3
Obviously we have to use averages, not individual polls.0 -
Mike Pence visited yesterday.HYUFD said:
Colorado is increasingly looking like the pivotal state for both campaigns, win there and you win the Electoral Collegevik said:New University of Denver poll shows a Tie in Colorado
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html0 -
Trump seems confident !
- Tuesday, November 08, 2016 -
DONALD J. TRUMP VICTORY PARTY0 -
In 2012 Obama had a bigger lead in early voting than he won by, in North Carolina he even had a double digit lead but failed to win it619 said:
hmmm. What about the precious presidential election though? Dems vote more for those.HYUFD said:
There was an article yesterday warning not to put too much emphasis on early voting, in 2010 and 2014 higher than expected early voting by Democrats led some to believe they could hold Congress and the Senate. In 2014 in Iowa for instance Ernst trailed badly in early voting but won comfortably on the nightSean_F said:
Broadly I agree, but I don't think much weight should be placed on early voting numbers, for the reasons given by Sean Trende. We should assume that she's about 2-3% ahead.AlastairMeeks said:1.41 looks a very good price for Hillary on current polling, never mind 1.45. The other side of the bet is effectively a bet that the polls are systematically wrong and the interpretation placed on early voting data is misplaced. They might be but I wouldn't be rushing to that assumption.
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The judiciary rules on what they are permitted by parliament to rule on following rules parliament are able to define so it's not meddling. No more than luftur rahman or woolas being tossed out despite winning elections, which people complained was judges meddling with politics.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, I'd keep your name, but it's up to you, of course.
Mr. Bromptonaut, it's been delayed ages and we've discussed it a lot. Besides, this is like the starter before the main course of the judgement. And the judgement itself is likely only the first leg ahead of appeal.
It's ridiculous the judiciary may meddle in politics in this way.0 -
That should firm up the gay vote for Clinton.Pulpstar said:
Mike Pence visited yesterday.HYUFD said:
Colorado is increasingly looking like the pivotal state for both campaigns, win there and you win the Electoral Collegevik said:New University of Denver poll shows a Tie in Colorado
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html0 -
Isn't it more recent polling analysis history?Pulpstar said:
Given recent polling errm history I'd say 1.41 is a fair price for the sort of "miss" needed actually. I'm reasonably balanced.AlastairMeeks said:1.41 looks a very good price for Hillary on current polling, never mind 1.45. The other side of the bet is effectively a bet that the polls are systematically wrong and the interpretation placed on early voting data is misplaced. They might be but I wouldn't be rushing to that assumption.
https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/793876952637550593
Marvellous to see another SeanT in the world btw.0 -
Yes Trump campaign still there but Hillary campaign seem to have scaled down activity, they may need to scale it back upPulpstar said:
Mike Pence visited yesterday.HYUFD said:
Colorado is increasingly looking like the pivotal state for both campaigns, win there and you win the Electoral Collegevik said:New University of Denver poll shows a Tie in Colorado
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html0 -
It's an interesting legal question which some woukd prefer to ignore because of the motivations of those who brought the case unfortunately. Frankly, it seems an important question to answer no matter ones politics, and doesn't close off any end one way or another anyway.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm very interested. The reasoning will be at least as important as the decision. This isn't just about Brexit, it's about how we are governed.Bromptonaut said:No interest on PB over the 10am decision on the Article 50 High Court case.
Which is interesting in itself.0 -
Morning all
Musing on the volatility and variations of polls with special regard to some of the quirky numbers coming out of the US at present.
Most people don't change their minds - even within "events" happen, it or they don't have the impact widely assumed in the immediate aftermath. The tragic and terrible murder of Jo Cox had, I would argue, little or no impact on the result though plenty on here and elsewhere were arguing, in the hours following, it would.
And the polls moved as if to support that thesis but as OGH argued yesterday, in an emotional age there's a certain taboo to an unemotional response. In the immediate aftermath of the death of Diana in 1997 there was an apparent huge emotional response but for all the emotion we saw, there were a lot of people who didn't have that response yet at the time if you didn't cry or wail, there was something wrong with you.
I confess I didn't watch the funeral - I went for a walk, I wasn't that bothered.
In the hot house, we may assume all the other plants outside are growing as fast as we are but they aren't - we may think everyone is talking about Clinton's emails - they probably aren't.
To move on, in an election where so many can vote before the day, do late polls have any relevance ? If 20-25% of people have already voted, are they included in the late polls or, if you've already voted, are you excluded or do you choose not to respond ?
LEAVE had already won before June 23rd and the Conservatives had already won the GE before May 7th 2015 because they had won decisively among the early or postal voters who were insulated against the late breaking events as they had already cast their ballots. It may be even though Trump wins on the day in many states (and even nationally), HRC has sewn up enough early ballots to prevail.
We don't know but it's further encouragement to treat the plethora of polls with a bucket load of salt.0 -
I'm not mocking it .... I'm saying it's a pile of crap !! ..another_richard said:
Maybe so but its often a bad sign when people start mocking subsamples.JackW said:National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 2,938 - 3 Nov
Clinton 42.5 .. Trump 47.5
Note - Trump winning the 18-34 demographic, the gender divide by 10.3 points and one third more Hispanics than Romney ..... Chortle ....
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
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George Osborne was genuinely funny in that clip. I remember James Corden on The Marr Show saying that Osborne has "funnybones" and is naturally funny. (Not so sure Corden is though)0
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I can't see any Louisiana poll with Trump as narrowly as 3% ahead.Chris said:
Probably the outlier of the day is this one just added to 538 (though concluded nearly two weeks ago):MarqueeMark said:
Every pollster seems to be having an outlier....JackW said:National - IPSOS/Reuters - Sample 1,772 - 28 Oct - 1 Nov
Clinton 44.7 .. Trump 37.4
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1
Louisiana OCT. 15-21 The Times-Picayune/Lucid (614) C: 40% T: 43% J: 6% Trump +3
Obviously we have to use averages, not individual polls.0 -
Mr. kle4, what rule did Parliament pass enabling the judiciary to determine the limits of the royal prerogative? [Not being sarcastic, incidentally].0
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I'd guess that the LA Times has a better handle on the voting intentions of US Hispanics than Jack W.another_richard said:
Maybe so but its often a bad sign when people start mocking subsamples.JackW said:National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 2,938 - 3 Nov
Clinton 42.5 .. Trump 47.5
Note - Trump winning the 18-34 demographic, the gender divide by 10.3 points and one third more Hispanics than Romney ..... Chortle ....
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/0 -
Anyone who didn't read the Sean Tende piece would be well advised to do so. His view - that early voting patterns have next to no use as prediction - is compelling.Sean_F said:
Broadly I agree, but I don't think much weight should be placed on early voting numbers, for the reasons given by Sean Trende. We should assume that she's about 2-3% ahead.AlastairMeeks said:1.41 looks a very good price for Hillary on current polling, never mind 1.45. The other side of the bet is effectively a bet that the polls are systematically wrong and the interpretation placed on early voting data is misplaced. They might be but I wouldn't be rushing to that assumption.
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The Greens aren't doing it to help Goldsmith, they're doing it to help the Lib Dems!rottenborough said:
I was wondering when this would happen. Zac is a green conservative, an endangered breed which needs protection.Pulpstar said:Greens not standing in Richmond Park, cancels UKIP tbh.
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Bath MP in some local difficulty.
http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/bath-mp-ben-howlett-quizzed-by-police-over-sex-assault-claims/story-29864900-detail/story.html0 -
In theory the polls should pick up early voters, and since they've already voted - those people should state the way they've ACTUALLY voted.stodge said:
To move on, in an election where so many can vote before the day, do late polls have any relevance ? If 20-25% of people have already voted, are they included in the late polls or, if you've already voted, are you excluded or do you choose not to respond ?0 -
Although the Titanic Museum is one of the best museums in Britain (and the Sunday afternoon tea is remarkable). The current Scott and Amundsen exhibition there is first rate.AlastairMeeks said:From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.
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Apart from copying and pasting all the details and telling you where they came from, what more can I do to convince you I'm not making it up?Pulpstar said:
I can't see any Louisiana poll with Trump as narrowly as 3% ahead.Chris said:
Probably the outlier of the day is this one just added to 538 (though concluded nearly two weeks ago):MarqueeMark said:
Every pollster seems to be having an outlier....JackW said:National - IPSOS/Reuters - Sample 1,772 - 28 Oct - 1 Nov
Clinton 44.7 .. Trump 37.4
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1
Louisiana OCT. 15-21 The Times-Picayune/Lucid (614) C: 40% T: 43% J: 6% Trump +3
Obviously we have to use averages, not individual polls.0 -
I'd guess that the LA Times also has a better handle on Hispanic voting intentions than all the specialist polls of that demographic showing Donald tanking with him barely getting half of Romney's vote.MonikerDiCanio said:
I'd guess that the LA Times has a better handle on the voting intentions of US Hispanics than Jack W.another_richard said:
Maybe so but its often a bad sign when people start mocking subsamples.JackW said:National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 2,938 - 3 Nov
Clinton 42.5 .. Trump 47.5
Note - Trump winning the 18-34 demographic, the gender divide by 10.3 points and one third more Hispanics than Romney ..... Chortle ....
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/0 -
they did a few months ago. Tbf, the average lead for clinton is high there, that poll has a too low sample of hispanics, and they are massively up in early voting.HYUFD said:
Yes Trump campaign still there but Hillary campaign seem to have scaled down activity, they may need to scale it back upPulpstar said:
Mike Pence visited yesterday.HYUFD said:
Colorado is increasingly looking like the pivotal state for both campaigns, win there and you win the Electoral Collegevik said:New University of Denver poll shows a Tie in Colorado
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html
If Trump does scrape a win, it will be through a win here, but i can understand why allocating resources to other places is more important0 -
...and it's thrown up some very watchable British films. My two favourites being '71 and Cal.foxinsoxuk said:
There must be some interesting political history for those of us brought up in the Seventies too.AlastairMeeks said:From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.
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Found it, 538 "adjusted" it to T +8...Chris said:
Apart from copying and pasting all the details and telling you where they came from, what more can I do to convince you I'm not making it up?Pulpstar said:
I can't see any Louisiana poll with Trump as narrowly as 3% ahead.Chris said:
Probably the outlier of the day is this one just added to 538 (though concluded nearly two weeks ago):MarqueeMark said:
Every pollster seems to be having an outlier....JackW said:National - IPSOS/Reuters - Sample 1,772 - 28 Oct - 1 Nov
Clinton 44.7 .. Trump 37.4
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1
Louisiana OCT. 15-21 The Times-Picayune/Lucid (614) C: 40% T: 43% J: 6% Trump +3
Obviously we have to use averages, not individual polls.0 -
You're correct, who needs the rule of law.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, I'd keep your name, but it's up to you, of course.
Mr. Bromptonaut, it's been delayed ages and we've discussed it a lot. Besides, this is like the starter before the main course of the judgement. And the judgement itself is likely only the first leg ahead of appeal.
It's ridiculous the judiciary may meddle in politics in this way.0 -
Granted I am not a lawyer, but the general principle is surely that parliament passes laws, and they can make ones saying what the judiciary can and cannot do. For all I know the court will rule it cannot decide as it is beyond their power, but the question can only be asked of the court in order to reveal that for sure. The alternative is the government gets to decide what the legal position is without legal challenge, and they never get the law wrong do they?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, what rule did Parliament pass enabling the judiciary to determine the limits of the royal prerogative? [Not being sarcastic, incidentally].
It essentially seems a process issue more than anything else, and that is why it is a good thing the courts will indicate. We will all be clear, in the end, of the process, and then Brexit will occur. What harm? May woukd probably like the high court to rule against the government, it will stir up people and she can count on them for months more at least no matter what else she does. Then if the Supreme Court, in the end, rules in the government favour great. If not, she has the votes to do it in parliament.
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Found 71 pretty meh, to be honest, a shame as it was talked up to me quite about.Roger said:
...and it's thrown up some very watchable British films. My two favourites being '71 and Cal.foxinsoxuk said:
There must be some interesting political history for those of us brought up in the Seventies too.AlastairMeeks said:From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.
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