From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.
There must be some interesting political history for those of us brought up in the Seventies too.
Speaking to a friend the other day - 40s, mother of a young girl whose best friend is from Belfast. She went - loved it, all the recent history, etc. (You can get an open top tour bus down the Falls Road now, apparently.) Didn't feel safe in Dublin, was amazed when another member of the group was told not to get out of the bus wearing the union jack pin badge she had on in some places north and south.
No interest on PB over the 10am decision on the Article 50 High Court case.
Which is interesting in itself.
I'm very interested. The reasoning will be at least as important as the decision. This isn't just about Brexit, it's about how we are governed.
Indeed it is. Our system already vests huge power in the Executive on very small voting margins. If the Government wins it will take us yet further from a truly representative democracy.
It was always about politicians taking back control, not the people.
Colorado is increasingly looking like the pivotal state for both campaigns, win there and you win the Electoral College
Mike Pence visited yesterday.
Yes Trump campaign still there but Hillary campaign seem to have scaled down activity, they may need to scale it back up
they did a few months ago. Tbf, the average lead for clinton is high there, that poll has a too low sample of hispanics, and they are massively up in early voting.
If Trump does scrape a win, it will be through a win here, but i can understand why allocating resources to other places is more important
Colorado now tighter than Pennsylvania on RCP certainly
No interest on PB over the 10am decision on the Article 50 High Court case.
Which is interesting in itself.
I'm very interested. The reasoning will be at least as important as the decision. This isn't just about Brexit, it's about how we are governed.
Indeed it is. Our system already vests huge power in the Executive on very small voting margins. If the Government wins it will take us yet further from a truly representative democracy.
It was always about politicians taking back control, not the people.
Perhaps that could be ukips stage 2 focus. Power to the country, now power to the people,
Probably the outlier of the day is this one just added to 538 (though concluded nearly two weeks ago): Louisiana OCT. 15-21 The Times-Picayune/Lucid (614) C: 40% T: 43% J: 6% Trump +3
Obviously we have to use averages, not individual polls.
I can't see any Louisiana poll with Trump as narrowly as 3% ahead.
Apart from copying and pasting all the details and telling you where they came from, what more can I do to convince you I'm not making it up?
From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.
There must be some interesting political history for those of us brought up in the Seventies too.
Speaking to a friend the other day - 40s, mother of a young girl whose best friend is from Belfast. She went - loved it, all the recent history, etc. (You can get an open top tour bus down the Falls Road now, apparently.) Didn't feel safe in Dublin, was amazed when another member of the group was told not to get out of the bus wearing the union jack pin badge she had on in some places north and south.
My other half celebrated his 40th birthday with a party in Northern Ireland. It fell the weekend after the 2005 general election. One of our friends is from Kenya and she was enthused by all the posters: "I like this place, they take their politics seriously".
From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.
There must be some interesting political history for those of us brought up in the Seventies too.
Speaking to a friend the other day - 40s, mother of a young girl whose best friend is from Belfast. She went - loved it, all the recent history, etc. (You can get an open top tour bus down the Falls Road now, apparently.) Didn't feel safe in Dublin, was amazed when another member of the group was told not to get out of the bus wearing the union jack pin badge she had on in some places north and south.
My other half celebrated his 40th birthday with a party in Northern Ireland. It fell the weekend after the 2005 general election. One of our friends is from Kenya and she was enthused by all the posters: "I like this place, they take their politics seriously".
From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.
There must be some interesting political history for those of us brought up in the Seventies too.
Speaking to a friend the other day - 40s, mother of a young girl whose best friend is from Belfast. She went - loved it, all the recent history, etc. (You can get an open top tour bus down the Falls Road now, apparently.) Didn't feel safe in Dublin, was amazed when another member of the group was told not to get out of the bus wearing the union jack pin badge she had on in some places north and south.
Have to say the only overtly anti-Brit things I've heard in Dublin have been in pubs during rugby, and from American tourists in places like Kilmainham Gaol.
I didn't expect to, but I love Belfast. It's got an edginess still and you would have to be careful what you say in pubs that are either obviously orange (blue, really) or green but it's vibrant. And the Crown is the greatest pub space I've ever been in in the UK.
Moving directly into politics in Northern Ireland has been absolutely fascinating. Stormont debates can be quite overtly chippy in tone but you do have certain types of people in there that you really wouldn't expect anything else from.
Mr. Matt, you're arguing that implementing the decision of the electorate taken at a referendum that was voted through Parliament which was in the manifesto of the party that won a majority at the last election is illegal?
From previous threads: those that haven't been to Northern Ireland should give it a visit. Don't spend too long in Belfast, the real interest is in the countryside.
There must be some interesting political history for those of us brought up in the Seventies too.
Speaking to a friend the other day - 40s, mother of a young girl whose best friend is from Belfast. She went - loved it, all the recent history, etc. (You can get an open top tour bus down the Falls Road now, apparently.) Didn't feel safe in Dublin, was amazed when another member of the group was told not to get out of the bus wearing the union jack pin badge she had on in some places north and south.
Have to say the only overtly anti-Brit things I've heard in Dublin have been in pubs during rugby, and from American tourists in places like Kilmainham Gaol.
I didn't expect to, but I love Belfast. It's got an edginess still and you would have to be careful what you say in pubs that are either obviously orange (blue, really) or green but it's vibrant. And the Crown is the greatest pub space I've ever been in in the UK.
Moving directly into politics in Northern Ireland has been absolutely fascinating. Stormont debates can be quite overtly chippy in tone but you do have certain types of people in there that you really wouldn't expect anything else from.
I was surprised at the Dublin comment I must say. She also said that all the young people around her daughter's age (18-20) saw the Troubles as a bygone age.
Mr. Matt, you're arguing that implementing the decision of the electorate taken at a referendum that was voted through Parliament which was in the manifesto of the party that won a majority at the last election is illegal?
I didn't read it that way. Questioning the method by which that decision is implemented is not unreasonable, and while the government can rule on that since it is a point of if it has the power to do it or not or whether it is reserved to parliament, how can we leave it up to the government to say it has the power to do it or not? They may well be right in this case, but it is important for people to be able to challenge the government's interpretation of the law and who has the power to make decisions.
Government's are always confident they have the power to do what they want to do and that what they propose accords with law as set by parliament. SOmetimes they are wrong though.
Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :
Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :
I was reading the Evening Standard on the way home, and there was an report from Robert Moore of ITV News about the 14 Corridor in Florida.
"When you want to gauge the mood in this part of Florida, there is only one destination. The Villages is the largest retirement community in America; 120,000 elderly residents living in a gated city.
Slightly shockingly — I rather expected these gentle elderly folk to be in the centre of the political spectrum, worrying about their grandchildren’s future and the cost of medication — this is Trump territory."
So the US correspondent for ITV News, thought that the best way to gauge the views of swing Florida voters was to go to an almost exclusively white giant retirement village, that's famous for its republican leanings??!
Do journalists not do the slightest bit of research anymore? Or are they just to lazy to post proper reports?! It's the equivalent of an American reporter covering the UK election exclusively on the views of the residents of Frinton on Sea!
I was reading the Evening Standard on the way home, and there was an report from Robert Moore of ITV News about the 14 Corridor in Florida.
"When you want to gauge the mood in this part of Florida, there is only one destination. The Villages is the largest retirement community in America; 120,000 elderly residents living in a gated city.
Slightly shockingly — I rather expected these gentle elderly folk to be in the centre of the political spectrum, worrying about their grandchildren’s future and the cost of medication — this is Trump territory."
So the US correspondent for ITV News, thought that the best way to gauge the views of swing Florida voters was to go to an almost exclusively white giant retirement village, that's famous for its republican leanings??!
Do journalists not do the slightest bit of research anymore? Or are they just to lazy to post proper reports?! It's the equivalent of an American reporter covering the UK election exclusively on the views of the residents of Frinton on Sea!
Jounalism is dead, too expensive much cheaper to buy from syndicated news outlets etc.
Those arguing that Leave was about parliamentary sovereignty are attacking a straw man. It was about democracy, among other things. It seems reasonable to say that even in a representative democracy the directly expressed will of the people should trump that of the legislature. This doesn't mean wanting the executive to have untrammelled power in general!
A possible outcome of Article 50 going before Parliament is that it will be voted down and that is why certain Remainers have discovered an eleventh-hour interest in parliamentary sovereignty.
Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :
Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :
Another point of note is the gender divide in early voting. In Florida it is 55/45 to women and is up across the US. If women continue to be more engaged they will provide a boost to Clinton's numbers. In 2012 the divide was 52/48.
I can't possibly account for the fairer sex being more energized this election unless it is the charm of Mr.Trump. After all as Donald told us - "No one has more respect for women than me" ....
I kept on telling you all George is a top bloke who is warm and witty.
It won't be long until you also agree with me that he's our next Prime Minister.
This is the route I could possibly see. Brexit goes middling, not well and not badly. Labour replace their leader with someone a bit more competent. Theresa May gets bogged down in domestic issues such as grammar schools which are not very popular on the Tory benches and in 2019 is 8-10 points down vs the new Labour leader. In the face of this she is replaced and George runs for the leadership with the backing of Gove with Boris as the other main contender. He wins.
I kept on telling you all George is a top bloke who is warm and witty.
It won't be long until you also agree with me that he's our next Prime Minister.
This is the route I could possibly see. Brexit goes middling, not well and not badly. Labour replace their leader with someone a bit more competent. Theresa May gets bogged down in domestic issues such as grammar schools which are not very popular on the Tory benches and in 2019 is 8-10 points down vs the new Labour leader. In the face of this she is replaced and George runs for the leadership with the backing of Gove with Boris as the other main contender. He wins.
Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :
Another point of note is the gender divide in early voting. In Florida it is 55/45 to women and is up across the US. If women continue to be more engaged they will provide a boost to Clinton's numbers. In 2012 the divide was 52/48.
I can't possibly account for the fairer sex being more energized this election unless it is the charm of Mr.Trump. After all as Donald told us - "No one has more respect for women than me" ....
It's surely all about the GOTV operations in the close states. Signs are that Dems are more prepared for the ground war. However, tougher job to get some of their voters out. The reason EVs are not an ideal predictor is that you can't tell whether they are people who would have voted anyway and have been persuaded out early, or people who wouldn't otherwise have voted. So extra votes for the side ahead in them or using up the votes of the side ahead in them so fewer on the day? But each vote bagged in advance is one less you have to get out on polling day.
Edit: should have added that if people have already voted, they can't be influenced by any more surprises.
I was surprised at the Dublin comment I must say. She also said that all the young people around her daughter's age (18-20) saw the Troubles as a bygone age.
I'm certainly surprised by the Dublin comment. There are parts of Dublin which are undeniably rough and the north city centre has its share of troubles but those are based on drugs and gangsters not anti-British feeling. If there were a real problem you'd think that it would be obvious now given the 100 year anniversary of 1916. It's not obvious.
Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :
Another point of note is the gender divide in early voting. In Florida it is 55/45 to women and is up across the US. If women continue to be more engaged they will provide a boost to Clinton's numbers. In 2012 the divide was 52/48.
I can't possibly account for the fairer sex being more energized this election unless it is the charm of Mr.Trump. After all as Donald told us - "No one has more respect for women than me" ....
Mr. Matt, you're arguing that implementing the decision of the electorate taken at a referendum that was voted through Parliament which was in the manifesto of the party that won a majority at the last election is illegal?
I'm saying that the Executive has to act within the law. The nature of our constitution means that ambiguity is inevitable. If Parliament had intended the result of the referendum to be absolutely binding, the legislation should have made that clear.
It's surely all about the GOTV operations in the close states. Signs are that Dems are more prepared for the ground war. However, tougher job to get some of their voters out. The reason EVs are not an ideal predictor is that you can't tell whether they are people who would have voted anyway and have been persuaded out early, or people who wouldn't otherwise have voted. So extra votes for the side ahead in them or using up the votes of the side ahead in them so fewer on the day? But each vote bagged in advance is one less you have to get out on polling day.
Edit: should have added that if people have already voted, they can't be influenced by any more surprises.
Some of the links below for Florida and NC says that the a good percentage of the independent Hispanic voters were ones who hadn't voted before ( around 20% worth I believe of them). No idea what that means numbers wise, but Nevada especially is looking like a big Clinton lead so far.
If that projection is right and let's remember it's from Fox, then OGH's buy of Hillary at 302 looks low risk and sound since it would leave him needing only 15 ECVs of the 77 Toss-ups, i.e. less than 15%, to fully safeguard him from losing money on this spread bet.
Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :
Another point of note is the gender divide in early voting. In Florida it is 55/45 to women and is up across the US. If women continue to be more engaged they will provide a boost to Clinton's numbers. In 2012 the divide was 52/48.
I can't possibly account for the fairer sex being more energized this election unless it is the charm of Mr.Trump. After all as Donald told us - "No one has more respect for women than me" ....
That must be it surely ....
I believe you are comparing the early voting gender gap with the 2012 final gender gap. However in many states women tend to vote early more than men anyway, men tend to vote more on Election Day. Look at the graphs of early vote;
very strong services PMI figures out today, 54.5 vs 52.6 last month and expectations of 52.5, our industries seem to be giving Brexit a collective shrug of their shoulders right now.
Mr. kle4, the process is being used as an excuse to frustrate and, if possible, deny the referendum result.
The referendum did not produce a real result, Mr Dancer. It was a vacuous question produced by a vacuous prime minister. What we needed was a choice between specific outcomes. We are still waiting for that.
It's surely all about the GOTV operations in the close states. Signs are that Dems are more prepared for the ground war. However, tougher job to get some of their voters out. The reason EVs are not an ideal predictor is that you can't tell whether they are people who would have voted anyway and have been persuaded out early, or people who wouldn't otherwise have voted. So extra votes for the side ahead in them or using up the votes of the side ahead in them so fewer on the day? But each vote bagged in advance is one less you have to get out on polling day.
Edit: should have added that if people have already voted, they can't be influenced by any more surprises.
Some of the links below for Florida and NC says that the a good percentage of the independent Hispanic voters were ones who hadn't voted before ( around 20% worth I believe of them). No idea what that means numbers wise, but Nevada especially is looking like a big Clinton lead so far.
The point Schale is making in Florida, as you indicate, is that there has been a substantial spike in Hispanics turnout generally but specifically low propensity voter (0 & 1-3). Additionally NPA's in the state are breaking for Clinton party because many Hispanics register as such.
These facts are important as most pollsters have used a turnout filter based on 2012, when Hispanic turnout under performed their demographic whereas the reverse is true today where they are substantially out performing it. The same is true of the gender divide.
You could make a case for the Leave/Remain distinction being wrong (or, indeed, that a vote on Maastricht or Lisbon being better), but the vote has happened.
Mr. Divvie, a majority of domestic abuse victims are women, and perpetrators men. But a very large minority of victims are men (35-45% seems a common estimate) and perpetrators women [of course, happens in gay relationships too which will up the count on both sides].
Pretending male victims of domestic violence don't existence is a despicable approach.
Steve Schale, Florida election expert, indicates a big day for Dems in the state yesterday. Spike again in Hispanics including large increases in NPA's in Hispanic communities :
Another point of note is the gender divide in early voting. In Florida it is 55/45 to women and is up across the US. If women continue to be more engaged they will provide a boost to Clinton's numbers. In 2012 the divide was 52/48.
I can't possibly account for the fairer sex being more energized this election unless it is the charm of Mr.Trump. After all as Donald told us - "No one has more respect for women than me" ....
That must be it surely ....
While AA voters are regressing to usual post Obama mean, are the ladies going to turnout for Hillary in a similar boost? Between the first ever main party contender, and Trumps open misogyny, there must surely be a boost.
Heaven forbid that the old adage "treat 'em mean, keep' em keen" proves true...
Mr. kle4, the process is being used as an excuse to frustrate and, if possible, deny the referendum result.
Yes it is. That doesn't mean the question of resolving what is the proper process is improper, because it isn't. As I said, the motivations have to be set aside when considering the legal question.
And it bears repeating, while it is politically unviable right now (and it is very hard to see how that would change in time), denying the referendum result is one outcome which would unquestionably be legal. It is therefore perfectly appropriate for people to try it, but if hundreds of MPs were to try it, or the Lords, I doubt it would end well for them.
very strong services PMI figures out today, 54.5 vs 52.6 last month and expectations of 52.5, our industries seem to be giving Brexit a collective shrug of their shoulders right now.
They will be pleased - so much anger to harness, an appeal to win, a lot of people, as on here, confusing the motivations to deny Brexit with the much more abstract question of parliamentary and executive authority.
If that projection is right and let's remember it's from Fox, then OGH's buy of Hillary at 302 looks low risk and sound since it would leave him needing only 15 ECVs of the 77 Toss-ups, i.e. less than 15%, to fully safeguard him from losing money on this spread bet.
Oops, make that 20% of the Toss-ups ...... go back to school PfP and throw that abacus away.
Mr. Divvie, a majority of domestic abuse victims are women, and perpetrators men. But a very large minority of victims are men (35-45% seems a common estimate) and perpetrators women [of course, happens in gay relationships too which will up the count on both sides].
Pretending male victims of domestic violence don't existence is a despicable approach.
very strong services PMI figures out today, 54.5 vs 52.6 last month and expectations of 52.5, our industries seem to be giving Brexit a collective shrug of their shoulders right now.
Plugging the figures into my own model we're looking at October growth of 0.2-0.3% for the month, quarterly growth should be around 0.7% if the figures hold. Would give annual growth of 2.3% for the year. I still don't see what kind of slowdown we might get in 2017, even after A50 is served the domestic economy is not going to change all that much.
very strong services PMI figures out today, 54.5 vs 52.6 last month and expectations of 52.5, our industries seem to be giving Brexit a collective shrug of their shoulders right now.
More a spring in their step than a shrug of their shoulders. Much rejoicing.
If that projection is right and let's remember it's from Fox, then OGH's buy of Hillary at 302 looks low risk and sound since it would leave him needing only 15 ECVs of the 77 Toss-ups, i.e. less than 15%, to fully safeguard him from losing money on this spread bet.
My favourite GE15 spread bet: That there’ll be a CON margin on seats of fewer than 12 April 10th, 2015
As well as the straight total seats betting as seen above there’s another market I like – CON supremacy over LAB. The terms are
“A prediction on the total number of seats won by one party versus another party at the UK General Election. Note: This market can have a negative result and is a supremacy market where the favourite is listed first and the underdog second.” My bet is a sell at 12 seats which has now edged down to 9. What this means is that I’m a winner if the eventual margin is fewer than 12 seats – the actual level of my return dependent on the final gap. So if LAB ended up 20 ahead I’d make 20+12=32 multiplied by the stake level.
If my prediction is wrong and the Tories, shall we say, end up 20 ahead then my losses would be 20 minus the bet level (12) multiplied by the stake level. So at, say, £20 a unit (which is not what I’ve bet) I’d lose £160.
If that projection is right and let's remember it's from Fox, then OGH's buy of Hillary at 302 looks low risk and sound since it would leave him needing only 15 ECVs of the 77 Toss-ups, i.e. less than 15%, to fully safeguard him from losing money on this spread bet.
Oops, make that 20% of the Toss-ups ...... go back to school PfP and put that abacus away.
RealClearPolitics has Clinton 226, Trump 180, Toss up 132. This would give an upside of 52 and a downside of 76. Their no toss ups map is currently C 273, T 265
Those arguing that Leave was about parliamentary sovereignty are attacking a straw man. It was about democracy, among other things. It seems reasonable to say that even in a representative democracy the directly expressed will of the people should trump that of the legislature. This doesn't mean wanting the executive to have untrammelled power in general!
A possible outcome of Article 50 going before Parliament is that it will be voted down and that is why certain Remainers have discovered an eleventh-hour interest in parliamentary sovereignty.
We had years of no parliamentary votes on new rules that were adopted from the EC/EU. Amazing how certain Remainers were content for the past practices and yet now suddenly discover a concern about parliamentary soveriegnty.
very strong services PMI figures out today, 54.5 vs 52.6 last month and expectations of 52.5, our industries seem to be giving Brexit a collective shrug of their shoulders right now.
Plugging the figures into my own model we're looking at October growth of 0.2-0.3% for the month, quarterly growth should be around 0.7% if the figures hold. Would give annual growth of 2.3% for the year. I still don't see what kind of slowdown we might get in 2017, even after A50 is served the domestic economy is not going to change all that much.
0.7% would be quite extraordinary, it would be better than had been hoped if Britain remained.
Won't take long for the Government to confirm whether they're appealing or not.
So, say it gets through the Commons (far from guaranteed), and the Lords reject it (likely). What then? Parliament Act and another year of delay, or General Election?
Won't take long for the Government to confirm whether they're appealing or not.
So, say it gets through the Commons (far from guaranteed), and the Lords reject it (likely). What then? Parliament Act and another year of delay, or General Election?
May may use it as an excuse to hold the early GE she said she wouldn't.
"They will be pleased - so much anger to harness, an appeal to win, a lot of people, as on here, confusing the motivations to deny Brexit with the much more abstract question of parliamentary and executive authority."
I've asked this question before, but what is the point of having a discussion about Article 50 in Parliament?
They'll either vote in favour, so what was achieved? Or they'll vote against and say to the voters ... up yours. Political suicide and mayhem.
Comments
EC - Clinton 309 .. Trump 229 .. PV Clinton 47.7 .. Trump 44.0
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/
It was always about politicians taking back control, not the people.
Clinton 287 .. Trump 174 .. Toss-Up 77
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-race
I didn't expect to, but I love Belfast. It's got an edginess still and you would have to be careful what you say in pubs that are either obviously orange (blue, really) or green but it's vibrant. And the Crown is the greatest pub space I've ever been in in the UK.
Moving directly into politics in Northern Ireland has been absolutely fascinating. Stormont debates can be quite overtly chippy in tone but you do have certain types of people in there that you really wouldn't expect anything else from.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Government's are always confident they have the power to do what they want to do and that what they propose accords with law as set by parliament. SOmetimes they are wrong though.
https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
If that happens, then we have to consider the possibility that in 2020 UKIP will win the GE on the manifesto of abolishing the Lords.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/us-election-2016-grey-vote-plumps-for-donald-trump-at-america-s-ground-zero-a3384986.html
I was reading the Evening Standard on the way home, and there was an report from Robert Moore of ITV News about the 14 Corridor in Florida.
"When you want to gauge the mood in this part of Florida, there is only one destination. The Villages is the largest retirement community in America; 120,000 elderly residents living in a gated city.
Slightly shockingly — I rather expected these gentle elderly folk to be in the centre of the political spectrum, worrying about their grandchildren’s future and the cost of medication — this is Trump territory."
So the US correspondent for ITV News, thought that the best way to gauge the views of swing Florida voters was to go to an almost exclusively white giant retirement village, that's famous for its republican leanings??!
Do journalists not do the slightest bit of research anymore? Or are they just to lazy to post proper reports?! It's the equivalent of an American reporter covering the UK election exclusively on the views of the residents of Frinton on Sea!
It won't be long until you also agree with me that he's our next Prime Minister.
A possible outcome of Article 50 going before Parliament is that it will be voted down and that is why certain Remainers have discovered an eleventh-hour interest in parliamentary sovereignty.
https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/793943307357454337
So funny
http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2016/11/mp-wants-to-bring-back-bbc-one-playing-the-national-anthem-at-closedown-because-brexit/
Sometimes reality and parody are hard to distinguish.
I guess he's found his new career.
He also has to overcome that he has that very special, hard to define, punchable quality.
I can't possibly account for the fairer sex being more energized this election unless it is the charm of Mr.Trump. After all as Donald told us - "No one has more respect for women than me" ....
That must be it surely ....
I couldn't have laughed more if you had told me that @Plato was Clinton's biggest fan ....
The reason EVs are not an ideal predictor is that you can't tell whether they are people who would have voted anyway and have been persuaded out early, or people who wouldn't otherwise have voted. So extra votes for the side ahead in them or using up the votes of the side ahead in them so fewer on the day? But each vote bagged in advance is one less you have to get out on polling day.
Edit: should have added that if people have already voted, they can't be influenced by any more surprises.
I was surprised at the Dublin comment I must say. She also said that all the young people around her daughter's age (18-20) saw the Troubles as a bygone age.
I'm certainly surprised by the Dublin comment. There are parts of Dublin which are undeniably rough and the north city centre has its share of troubles but those are based on drugs and gangsters not anti-British feeling. If there were a real problem you'd think that it would be obvious now given the 100 year anniversary of 1916. It's not obvious.
"The money will help to provide accommodation, employment and skills training for women fleeing violence."
"Communities Secretary Sajid Javid said the boost will mean "no victim is turned away" from essential support."
Unless you're male, of course. Then you can sod off.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/29/where-early-voting-hints-at-good-news-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump/
Not much change since 2012.
Early voters are not a representative sample.
http://brilliantmaps.com/if-only-x-voted/
'Truss: Extra 2,100 prison officers to be deployed'
http://tinyurl.com/glme44a
These facts are important as most pollsters have used a turnout filter based on 2012, when Hispanic turnout under performed their demographic whereas the reverse is true today where they are substantially out performing it. The same is true of the gender divide.
You could make a case for the Leave/Remain distinction being wrong (or, indeed, that a vote on Maastricht or Lisbon being better), but the vote has happened.
Mr. Divvie, a majority of domestic abuse victims are women, and perpetrators men. But a very large minority of victims are men (35-45% seems a common estimate) and perpetrators women [of course, happens in gay relationships too which will up the count on both sides].
Pretending male victims of domestic violence don't existence is a despicable approach.
Heaven forbid that the old adage "treat 'em mean, keep' em keen" proves true...
And it bears repeating, while it is politically unviable right now (and it is very hard to see how that would change in time), denying the referendum result is one outcome which would unquestionably be legal. It is therefore perfectly appropriate for people to try it, but if hundreds of MPs were to try it, or the Lords, I doubt it would end well for them.
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/d2b6f4d1be494f72b908da3af2a5cdf0
Plugging the figures into my own model we're looking at October growth of 0.2-0.3% for the month, quarterly growth should be around 0.7% if the figures hold. Would give annual growth of 2.3% for the year. I still don't see what kind of slowdown we might get in 2017, even after A50 is served the domestic economy is not going to change all that much.
April 10th, 2015
As well as the straight total seats betting as seen above there’s another market I like – CON supremacy over LAB. The terms are
“A prediction on the total number of seats won by one party versus another party at the UK General Election. Note: This market can have a negative result and is a supremacy market where the favourite is listed first and the underdog second.”
My bet is a sell at 12 seats which has now edged down to 9. What this means is that I’m a winner if the eventual margin is fewer than 12 seats – the actual level of my return dependent on the final gap. So if LAB ended up 20 ahead I’d make 20+12=32 multiplied by the stake level.
If my prediction is wrong and the Tories, shall we say, end up 20 ahead then my losses would be 20 minus the bet level (12) multiplied by the stake level. So at, say, £20 a unit (which is not what I’ve bet) I’d lose £160.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/794107810065874944
Kudos to Alastair Meeks
Court does not accept that argument of the Government. Claimants win!
Has to go to a parliamentary vote ?
Probably a good time to buy USD tbh if you're a currency trader. Will just delay things a bit - not stop them.
So, say it gets through the Commons (far from guaranteed), and the Lords reject it (likely). What then? Parliament Act and another year of delay, or General Election?
Stand by your ballot boxes.
Subject to appeal of course.
I've asked this question before, but what is the point of having a discussion about Article 50 in Parliament?
They'll either vote in favour, so what was achieved?
Or they'll vote against and say to the voters ... up yours. Political suicide and mayhem.