politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just a week to go and it is going to be a very tense few days

But hang on! The Manchurian Candidate was 90% likely to win! She was going to turn Trump into Mondale! So surely the collapse can't be true, because that would suggest her mass triumph was a self-inflating bubble. Surely some mistake...

taffys said:

''I'm beginning to think Trump will do it. Many Americans feel that the Constitution gives them all the protection they need against the excesses of the executive, so they may not be as fearful of a Trump presidency as we assume they would be. Vote Trump; stick it to Clinton; what's to lose if it doesn't work out?''

Spot on. People who rave about Trump doing this or that clearly know zero about the US constitution, specifically designed and tested for separation of powers.

Yep, with the Senate, the House and Mike Pence we should be just about okay.

Anyway, people didn't think Ronald Reagan would make a good President so who knows?

tyson said:

Jobabob said:

tyson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'm mentally prepared for a Trump victory.

I'm not.

Praise the founding fathers for the separation of powers, and the checks & balances.

He can still make a real mess of the world all on his own if he puts his mind to it. Fortunately for Americans what you say is right as far as domestic legislation is concerned but he still has the ability to make a real mess of international relations with little or no control from Congress.

How the hell Richard could people like you and me become so divergent over Brexit?

Richard is almost sui generis - a libertarian, internationalist, anti-racist, Democrat-supporting pro free market, pro Scottish nationalist, anti capital punishment, intellectual, evangelical atheist Brexiteer!

Jobabob...apart from Brexit...that is me, and I guess that is you too, and people like Fox (maybe not quite atheist)....so how come we can come so far apart on Brexit. I don't get it.

I feel a natural affinity to libertarians more so than any other political philosophy. I really do not like Corbyn's hamfisted, socialism

Definitely not Athiest! Libertarians are not easy to corral into a single party.

Jobabob said:

williamglenn said:

The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

Oh, no. It's over now as far as the African-American community is concerned. She had time back then to get into the community and get people out to vote. Now, you know, the numbers are the numbers. There's nothing she can do now.

As far as bringing in all of the surrogates, I said then that wasn't going to get the African-American community to the polls. It didn't work. The numbers are the numbers. What she can do now is hope the Hispanic community can carry her over the top. To be honest with you I don't see it happening.

For clarify, bettors note that this story relates to Florida only. These omissions are becoming irritating. We had a poster earlier in the week post up data from a poll, giving the impression that it was a national survey. The poll was an Indiana state poll.

Sounds mild compared with some of the rubbish that's being posted here. Michelle Obama deleting three years' worth of tweets in order to efface all references to Clinton. Comey declaring before Congress that Clinton had broken the law. What drivel.

taffys said:

''I'm beginning to think Trump will do it. Many Americans feel that the Constitution gives them all the protection they need against the excesses of the executive, so they may not be as fearful of a Trump presidency as we assume they would be. Vote Trump; stick it to Clinton; what's to lose if it doesn't work out?''

Spot on. People who rave about Trump doing this or that clearly know zero about the US constitution, specifically designed and tested for separation of powers.

Except that both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court will be Republican controlled. Few checks on Trumpism really, and the ones that are there are R on R action.

RochdalePioneers said:

But hang on! The Manchurian Candidate was 90% likely to win! She was going to turn Trump into Mondale! So surely the collapse can't be true, because that would suggest her mass triumph was a self-inflating bubble. Surely some mistake...

What collapse is this then? More drivel from the left-nationalist Labour Leaver.

JennyFreeman said:

Jobabob said:

williamglenn said:

The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

For clarify, bettors note that this story relates to Florida only. These omissions are becoming irritating. We had a poster earlier in the week post up data from a poll, giving the impression that it was a national survey. The poll was an Indiana state poll.

What makes you think the African-American vote outside Florida is going to be dramatically different from the one inside it?

Bill Clinton was always very popular with the AA voters but he wasn't one of their own.The peer pressure by AAs family and friends to turn out for Obama was enormous and it was never going to be the same this time. I suspect alot of younger AA will just not bother .

Chris said:

Jobabob said:

williamglenn said:

The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

Oh, no. It's over now as far as the African-American community is concerned. She had time back then to get into the community and get people out to vote. Now, you know, the numbers are the numbers. There's nothing she can do now.

As far as bringing in all of the surrogates, I said then that wasn't going to get the African-American community to the polls. It didn't work. The numbers are the numbers. What she can do now is hope the Hispanic community can carry her over the top. To be honest with you I don't see it happening.

For clarify, bettors note that this story relates to Florida only. These omissions are becoming irritating. We had a poster earlier in the week post up data from a poll, giving the impression that it was a national survey. The poll was an Indiana state poll.

Sounds mild compared with some of the rubbish that's being posted here. Michelle Obama deleting three years' worth of tweets in order to efface all references to Clinton. Comey declaring before Congress that Clinton had broken the law. What drivel.

Agree but the difference is with that stuff is that it usually comes complete with a drivel alert (usually the name of the poster is enough). But when numbers or interviews are posted, I'm inclined to consider them, yet we're seeing more and more that details are omitted - typically the geographical aspect. This is a betting site and it shouldn't happen.

Jobabob said:

Chris said:

Jobabob said:

williamglenn said:

The president of the Democratic African-American women's caucus says Clinton is in panic mode and it's over.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/01/dem_strategist_clinton_should_be_in_panic_mode_over_enthusiasm_gap_with_black_voters_nothing_she_can_do_now.html

Oh, no. It's over now as far as the African-American community is concerned. She had time back then to get into the community and get people out to vote. Now, you know, the numbers are the numbers. There's nothing she can do now.

As far as bringing in all of the surrogates, I said then that wasn't going to get the African-American community to the polls. It didn't work. The numbers are the numbers. What she can do now is hope the Hispanic community can carry her over the top. To be honest with you I don't see it happening.

For clarify, bettors note that this story relates to Florida only. These omissions are becoming irritating. We had a poster earlier in the week post up data from a poll, giving the impression that it was a national survey. The poll was an Indiana state poll.

Sounds mild compared with some of the rubbish that's being posted here. Michelle Obama deleting three years' worth of tweets in order to efface all references to Clinton. Comey declaring before Congress that Clinton had broken the law. What drivel.

Agree but the difference is with that stuff is that it usually comes complete with a drivel alert (usually the name of the poster is enough). But when numbers or interviews are posted, I'm inclined to consider them, yet we're seeing more and more that details are omitted - typically the geographical aspect. This is a betting site and it shouldn't happen.

To be fair (to me) the fact that this was about the situation in Florida was quite obscure in the source too. Nevertheless, the American-American demographic nationally is important enough that it could swing the election so any straw in the wind is valuable information.

taffys said:

You can't eat sovereignty.

Oooh a forecaster. Like the ones who got the immediate aftermath of Brexit totally, utterly and completely wrong. Massive recession, wasn;t it? higher interest rates? need I go on?

I'll be a forecaster...the future of the UK economy without Brexit was pretty grim...I can't say that Brexit has made me feel better about our country's prospects......

JennyFreeman said:

taffys said:

''I'm beginning to think Trump will do it. Many Americans feel that the Constitution gives them all the protection they need against the excesses of the executive, so they may not be as fearful of a Trump presidency as we assume they would be. Vote Trump; stick it to Clinton; what's to lose if it doesn't work out?''

Spot on. People who rave about Trump doing this or that clearly know zero about the US constitution, specifically designed and tested for separation of powers.

Yep, with the Senate, the House and Mike Pence we should be just about okay.

My God. Trump hasn't got much going for him, but at least he's not openly homophobic in the way Pence is.

peter_from_putney said:

JennyFreeman said:

taffys said:

''I'm beginning to think Trump will do it. Many Americans feel that the Constitution gives them all the protection they need against the excesses of the executive, so they may not be as fearful of a Trump presidency as we assume they would be. Vote Trump; stick it to Clinton; what's to lose if it doesn't work out?''

Spot on. People who rave about Trump doing this or that clearly know zero about the US constitution, specifically designed and tested for separation of powers.

Yep, with the Senate, the House and Mike Pence we should be just about okay.

Anyway, people didn't think Ronald Reagan would make a good President so who knows?

Two reasons why he turned out to be a good president -
1. He was a good, decent man
2. He was largely hands off.

Trump's hands are too small to do much damage even if he is a hands on president!

Paristonda said:

Is the predicted reduction in African-American turnout likely more due to Clinton not keeping up Obama enthusiam amongst them, or is it more due to Trump having gone relatively 'easy' on AA compared to hispanics or muslims, so less at stake for them?

How does Clinton compare with pre-Obama democrat AA early voting levels?

About average.

Hillary announced she is buying ads in NC,CO,VA and MI.

Does it now boil down to this?

If Clinton wins NV and doesn't suffer any shock loss (ie she holds PA, MI, WI, MN) then she wins unless she loses CO and ME district 2 in which case it's 269-269.

ie She can afford to write-off FL, OH and NC (and IA).

So it's now down to NV and needing either CO or ME district 2.

foxinsoxuk said:

taffys said:

You can't eat sovereignty.

Oooh a forecaster. Like the ones who got the immediate aftermath of Brexit totally, utterly and completely wrong. Massive recession, wasn;t it? higher interest rates? need I go on?

Then there is this cheerful fellow today:

Bloomberg - Hedge Fund Manager Odey Says UK Stocks Could Plummet 80% http://bloom.bg/2fAyDgb

That would make the FTSE almost as risky as investing in his hedge fund.

williamglenn said:

foxinsoxuk said:

taffys said:

You can't eat sovereignty.

Oooh a forecaster. Like the ones who got the immediate aftermath of Brexit totally, utterly and completely wrong. Massive recession, wasn;t it? higher interest rates? need I go on?

Then there is this cheerful fellow today:

Bloomberg - Hedge Fund Manager Odey Says UK Stocks Could Plummet 80% http://bloom.bg/2fAyDgb

That would make the FTSE almost as risky as investing in his hedge fund.

I didnote that his hedge fund made a loss in a rising market. He managed to hedge that rise well!

MikeL said:

Does it now boil down to this?

If Clinton wins NV and doesn't suffer any shock loss (ie she holds PA, MI, WI, MN) then she wins unless she loses CO and ME district 2 in which case it's 269-269.

ie She can afford to write-off FL, OH and NC (and IA).

So it's now down to NV and needing either CO or ME district 2.

Interesting analysis. Probably correct. She'll carry CO, very big Hispanic population there and white population much better educated than national mean.

MikeL said:

In terms of effective use of resources, surely Clinton should now throw as much as is feasibly possible at NV and ME district 2.

ME district 2 can't have that many people in it - I would have thought every single household should be contacted in the last week.

Only about 650,000. Congressional Districts are big...

Cyclefree said:

tyson said:

Great interview with Johny Marr on Newsnight. I once had the pleasure of spending the best part of a New Years Evening with him at a pub in south Manchester in 1987...he was exactly as he presented in this interview...unassuming, and easy to be with....

The Smiths. The Buzzcocks. The Hacienda. Brings back memories of happy days. Marr is a great guitarist and quite the best thing about the Smiths.

Rather harsh on Morrisey's lyrics!

Donald Trump = The Comeback Kid?

MarqueeMark said:

JennyFreeman said:

williamglenn said:

Trump in Wisconsin tonight. Trying to expand the map.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cxw0HrFf00

We might, just might, be heading for President Trump.

My oh my what a political year.

If we are wanting a roller-coaster ride then my bets are Michigan and Wisconsin for Trump. I know the polls aren't great yet for Trump. But....feeling in my waters about those two. Sort of states that won't take kindly to Hillary cheating in the debates....

I am on Trump on those two too. Not big money, but thd odds were too good for such underpolled states.

viewcode said:

MarqueeMark said:

Cyclefree said:

tyson said:

Great interview with Johny Marr on Newsnight. I once had the pleasure of spending the best part of a New Years Evening with him at a pub in south Manchester in 1987...he was exactly as he presented in this interview...unassuming, and easy to be with....

The Smiths. The Buzzcocks. The Hacienda. Brings back memories of happy days. Marr is a great guitarist and quite the best thing about the Smiths.

Rather harsh on Morrisey's lyrics!

And yet not harsh enough...

Anyhoo. Marr and the Charmed song without the silver-tongued Brexiteer mangling the wurds...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIHOZOZYIHs

Hardly surprising Morrisey was a Brexiteer. Scarred by spending too many warm summer days indoors, writing frightening verse to a buck-toothed girl in Luxembourg.....

***** BETTING POST *****

I believe there's quite a reasonable value combination bet to be had by backing the number of States won by the Republicans with SkyBet.
Currently 358.com has the GOP winning 22 Red States plus 3 "close call" Pink States which are Arizona, Iowa and Ohio.
By contrast the Democrats are reckoned to have 3 "close call" light blue states, these being Nevada, North Carolina and Florida.
The key to this bet is to assess what would be the GOP's likely BEST and WORST outcomes and to cover the ground between these two positions.
I've taken their worst position as being them losing 1 of the 3 pink States and winning none of the 3 light blue States - leaving them with 24 States.
Conversely, their best outcome I've taken as them winning all 3 pink States plus 2 of the light blue States, leaving them with 27 States.

I'm then covering this 24 - 27 State range by 2 separate bets with SkyBet, staked as follows:

24 - 25 States at 4.5, staking 60.87% of the total stake
26 - 27 States at 7.0, staking 39.13% of the total stake

Should either element prove successful, this would return winning decimal odds of 2.74 or just short of 7/4 in old money..

Do your own research.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Dromedary said:

DavidL said:

MarqueeMark said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indy claim head of Isis is trapped in Mosul...

The spin would make you dizzy but Mosul is moving faster than I expected.

The head of ISIS on a spike atop Mosul in the next 6 days might not hurt Hillary.....

Probably too soon but the mood music will be reasonably positive on the lead up to the election.

If you're saying what I think you are, you've got it very wrong. The attack on Mosul has been a complete f***-up. They say they were completely unprepared for the scale of the resistance, taken unaware by the use of tens of thousands of human shields, and oh dear, will the Iranian-backed Shiites start massacring Sunnis? And what on earth will the Turks do to the Kurds? And generally speaking, "HELP". They look like idiots compared to the Russians. As for heads on spikes, any such disgusting propaganda in the next few days is likely to be by Daesh itself, successfully conveying the message that the US military strategy in the area is an utter crock, which is exactly what Trump is saying. This isn't Baghdad in 2003. Apocalypse is breakfast, lunch and dinner to Daesh. There could be attacks by Daesh elsewhere too. Mosul is terrible news for Clinton.

Link?

My personal fear has always been that when ISIS goes down, the sectarian backlash against the Sunni population in the formerly controlled ISIS areas will be horrible. Indeed the main reason that the Americans prevented an earlier assault was to try and build up a relatively non-sectarian force that was somewhat controllable.

An interesting parallel is the end of the Yugoslav wars. The Americans, tired of the garbage about not arming the opponents of the Serbs (who had most of the former Yugoslav army) from the EU and the professional international negotiating types, armed the Croats. They did so on a massive scale and embedded their people with resulting force. So, when, as was inevitable, the Croats started to misbehave when they got the upper hand, the Americans cut them off, selectively. Literally, units that attacked civilians would find themselves with no food, fuel or ammo resupply.

Wow ...... Moody's Analytics have Hillary winning easily with 332 ECVs in the final update of their model, thereby matching Obama's win 4 years ago:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-research-moody-s-idUSKBN12W56J

Oh well, you pays your money and you takes your choice (or places your bets).

DavidL said:

Big swing in NC in the SurveyUSA poll. And Az. This is getting tight. Another 2% and it is game on. Gulp.

http://abc11.com/archive/6380065/
A lack quality polls at the mo.

Dromedary said:

Malmesbury said:

My personal fear has always been that when ISIS goes down, the sectarian backlash against the Sunni population in the formerly controlled ISIS areas will be horrible. Indeed the main reason that the Americans prevented an earlier assault was to try and build up a relatively non-sectarian force that was somewhat controllable.

An interesting parallel is the end of the Yugoslav wars. The Americans, tired of the garbage about not arming the opponents of the Serbs (who had most of the former Yugoslav army) from the EU and the professional international negotiating types, armed the Croats. They did so on a massive scale and embedded their people with resulting force. So, when, as was inevitable, the Croats started to misbehave when they got the upper hand, the Americans cut them off, selectively. Literally, units that attacked civilians would find themselves with no food, fuel or ammo resupply.

You use the words "prevent", "relatively" and "controllable" in some strange way.

Yes - it was exactly that messy in Yugoslavia. And what is happening now will be worse.

taffys said:

''Except that both hoses of Congress and the Supreme Court will be Relublican controlled. Few checks on Trumpism really, and the ones that are there are R on R action.''

True but there will be plenty of R on R action. Many republican politicians can't abide Trump.

If there's NOM in the EC, is Pence in with a chance? Or for that matter, McMullin?

dugarbandier said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

After boarding the packed tram at Market Street, he was captured on film by passenger Stephen Stokes asking a Jewish man: “Why don’t you f*** off back where you come from?”

The man called another passenger, who was trying to calm him down, a ‘f***ing f****t’ before telling another man he ‘looked like a f***ing paedophile’.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/man-hurls-shocking-racist-homophobic-9172932

Antisemitic and accusing innocent people of being paedos...Sounds like the perfect candidate for a local councillor in Jezza's 21st Century Socialist Labour Party!

this is why UKIP is said to be a threat to labour in the North...

Seriously tho. Is "Man shouts on tram" really news these days?

Another one in the hate crime column of the plod stats....

FrancisUrquhart said:

dugarbandier said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

After boarding the packed tram at Market Street, he was captured on film by passenger Stephen Stokes asking a Jewish man: “Why don’t you f*** off back where you come from?”

The man called another passenger, who was trying to calm him down, a ‘f***ing f****t’ before telling another man he ‘looked like a f***ing paedophile’.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/man-hurls-shocking-racist-homophobic-9172932

Antisemitic and accusing innocent people of being paedos...Sounds like the perfect candidate for a local councillor in Jezza's 21st Century Socialist Labour Party!

this is why UKIP is said to be a threat to labour in the North...

Seriously tho. Is "Man shouts on tram" really news these days?

Another one in the hate crime column of the plod stats....

I'm fine with it being recorded. It might be useful to know whether this kind of thing becomes more or less common (or to measure the success of "care in the community" or has that been replaced by "the big society" now?). Just can't see that it's newsworthy

FAO @Jobabob:

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/

Morning all. A funny and genuinely nonpartisan take on how this election isn't quite as unique as we think it is, from US comedian Adam Conover.

One week from now, we should know the result!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dnslqy41qjg

National - RAND/PEPS - Sample 2,269 - 20 Oct-1 Nov

Clinton 44 .. Trump 35

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1792.html

AlastairMeeks said:

FAO @Jobabob:

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/

They use fewer calories counting their money :-)

If it's this close, might there still be value in Ryan and Kaine? If an election this divisive gets thrown into the House, they could be able to benefit from the fact that the headline candidates are so unpopular. Kaine in particular might be able to pose as a unity candidate.

It hasn't happened for two centuries, but then so much about this election is unprecedented that trying to make sense of it is proving impossible anyway.

Moses_ said:

PlatoSaid said:

Well she asked for the FBI to release stuff.

Here's her testimony

https://vault.fbi.gov/hillary-r.-clinton

I wonder if the use of "doesn't recall" is a rather subtle governmental equivalent of taking the 5th?

It's not very subtle. But if there's emails about what she later claimed not to recall, then her answer possibly amounts to perjury. That's how they're going to get her, not for anything to do with the emails themselves, but for lying under oath at the inquiry.