politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results : October 27th 2016 and October Summ
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results : October 27th 2016 and October Summary
Rhyl West on Denbighshire (Lab defence) Result: Lab 199 (48% +5% on 2012), Con 93 (22% -3% on 2012), Ind (Shone) 55 (13%), Ind (Webster) 42 (10%), Lib Dem 26 (6%, no candidate in 2012) Labour HOLD with a majority of 106 (26%) on a swing of 4% from Con to Lab Total Independent vote: 97 (23% +6% on 2012)
Comments
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Thanks for useful info and analysis as always0
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seconded!gettingbetter said:Thanks for useful info and analysis as always
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Thirded!0
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"Biden rules out secretary of state job"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37801564
I guess it is time for Joe to make some serious money, rather than doing a proper job.0 -
6 Labour losses versus 4 Tories, one UKIP.
2 LibDem gains, 2 Tory, 2 Independents, 1 Local Residents, 1 Labour, 1 UKIP, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 SNP.
Net position: Labour down 5, Tories down 2, UKIP a wash, LibDems up 2.
Seems to me the story is that Labour are the losers....0 -
I wonder how many of the 20 million people who have already turned up at polling stations and voted wish they could change their vote in view of today's events.0
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Beyond all the spin what has actually happened?Tim_B said:I wonder how many of the 20 million people who have already turned up at polling stations and voted wish they could change their vote in view of today's events.
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The first indication will be Florida's daily statistics, I would think. https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStatsTim_B said:I wonder how many of the 20 million people who have already turned up at polling stations and voted wish they could change their vote in view of today's events.
If the Democrat lead in the early voting fails to increase we will have some indication.
May be some effect tomorrow, but 1st day will be on Sunday. (assuming you can vote during the weekend).
Polls will take 3 days or so to get up to date (except for the weekly trackers which will take 7 days but a trend may become noticeable.0 -
Hillary has gone from someone who is untarnished legally to someone who is now under renewed FBI investigation.SouthamObserver said:
Beyond all the spin what has actually happened?Tim_B said:I wonder how many of the 20 million people who have already turned up at polling stations and voted wish they could change their vote in view of today's events.
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Half of those local elections will have turned on opposition to housing estate developments, lack of action against gypsy infestations or a sudden critical mass of dog fouling and broken paving slabs.MarqueeMark said:6 Labour losses versus 4 Tories, one UKIP.
2 LibDem gains, 2 Tory, 2 Independents, 1 Local Residents, 1 Labour, 1 UKIP, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 SNP.
Net position: Labour down 5, Tories down 2, UKIP a wash, LibDems up 2.
Seems to me the story is that Labour are the losers....
I'd guess you are probably right that only the Labour number is statistically significant.0 -
That question holds true for about 95% of everything ever.SouthamObserver said:
Beyond all the spin what has actually happened?Tim_B said:I wonder how many of the 20 million people who have already turned up at polling stations and voted wish they could change their vote in view of today's events.
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No, that hasn't happened.weejonnie said:
Hillary has gone from someone who is untarnished legally to someone who is now under renewed FBI investigation.SouthamObserver said:
Beyond all the spin what has actually happened?Tim_B said:I wonder how many of the 20 million people who have already turned up at polling stations and voted wish they could change their vote in view of today's events.
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Has Ms. Plato commented on Hilary's travails yet?
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'Dickileaks'?0
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From Comey's letter to Chaffetz:SouthamObserver said:
No, that hasn't happened.weejonnie said:
Hillary has gone from someone who is untarnished legally to someone who is now under renewed FBI investigation.SouthamObserver said:
Beyond all the spin what has actually happened?Tim_B said:I wonder how many of the 20 million people who have already turned up at polling stations and voted wish they could change their vote in view of today's events.
"In connection with an unrelated case, the FBI has learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation … I agreed that the FBI should take appropriate investigative steps designed to allow investigators to review these emails to determine whether they contain classified information, as well as to assess their importance to our investigation."
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#Dickileakswilliamglenn said:'Dickileaks'?
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In its genre, that is excellent. Up there with the best from the British red-tops.weejonnie said:0 -
Yep, Hillary is not under renewed FBI investigation.GeoffM said:
From Comey's letter to Chaffetz:SouthamObserver said:
No, that hasn't happened.weejonnie said:
Hillary has gone from someone who is untarnished legally to someone who is now under renewed FBI investigation.SouthamObserver said:
Beyond all the spin what has actually happened?Tim_B said:I wonder how many of the 20 million people who have already turned up at polling stations and voted wish they could change their vote in view of today's events.
"In connection with an unrelated case, the FBI has learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation … I agreed that the FBI should take appropriate investigative steps designed to allow investigators to review these emails to determine whether they contain classified information, as well as to assess their importance to our investigation."
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In other news, we need some rain.0
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Ah so that is why the Democrats are running around in circles - because there's nothing to see.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, Hillary is not under renewed FBI investigation.GeoffM said:
From Comey's letter to Chaffetz:SouthamObserver said:
No, that hasn't happened.weejonnie said:
Hillary has gone from someone who is untarnished legally to someone who is now under renewed FBI investigation.SouthamObserver said:
Beyond all the spin what has actually happened?Tim_B said:I wonder how many of the 20 million people who have already turned up at polling stations and voted wish they could change their vote in view of today's events.
"In connection with an unrelated case, the FBI has learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation … I agreed that the FBI should take appropriate investigative steps designed to allow investigators to review these emails to determine whether they contain classified information, as well as to assess their importance to our investigation."0 -
They are reviewing Abedin's emails to see if she sent or received classified info.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, Hillary is not under renewed FBI investigation.GeoffM said:
From Comey's letter to Chaffetz:SouthamObserver said:
No, that hasn't happened.weejonnie said:
Hillary has gone from someone who is untarnished legally to someone who is now under renewed FBI investigation.SouthamObserver said:
Beyond all the spin what has actually happened?Tim_B said:I wonder how many of the 20 million people who have already turned up at polling stations and voted wish they could change their vote in view of today's events.
"In connection with an unrelated case, the FBI has learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation … I agreed that the FBI should take appropriate investigative steps designed to allow investigators to review these emails to determine whether they contain classified information, as well as to assess their importance to our investigation."0 -
https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/791705679648137216
Rather endearing story from Emily Maitlis.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/37799779
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It's terrible for Hillary. She's lost control of the news cycle and is being comprehensively outspun.weejonnie said:
Ah so that is why the Democrats are running around in circles - because there's nothing to see.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, Hillary is not under renewed FBI investigation.GeoffM said:
From Comey's letter to Chaffetz:SouthamObserver said:
No, that hasn't happened.weejonnie said:
Hillary has gone from someone who is untarnished legally to someone who is now under renewed FBI investigation.SouthamObserver said:
Beyond all the spin what has actually happened?Tim_B said:I wonder how many of the 20 million people who have already turned up at polling stations and voted wish they could change their vote in view of today's events.
"In connection with an unrelated case, the FBI has learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation … I agreed that the FBI should take appropriate investigative steps designed to allow investigators to review these emails to determine whether they contain classified information, as well as to assess their importance to our investigation."
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The Hillary/FBI/Email stuff has repeatedly (and instantly) moved the market (<<Sanders, <Trump, >>Hillary) throughout the year.SouthamObserver said:
No, that hasn't happened.weejonnie said:
Hillary has gone from someone who is untarnished legally to someone who is now under renewed FBI investigation.SouthamObserver said:
Beyond all the spin what has actually happened?Tim_B said:I wonder how many of the 20 million people who have already turned up at polling stations and voted wish they could change their vote in view of today's events.
Previously punters have been rather overenthusiastic about the impact similar stories would have.
That was my hunch when I laid trump @ 3/1 once I'd confirmed that;
a ) Hilary was alive and well.
b ) The story didn't appear to have much substance to it and there was unlikely to be anything further before polling day.
c ) there wasn't any other news in the public domain that was affecting her campaign.
I expect the resulting media cycle will knock a point or two off Hillary's vote - which only really matters in ohio & Florida. It may make Utah even more interesting - I think it's more likely that the egg mcmuffin rather than the Donald will benefit from a further decline in Hillary's vote there.
I'll reassess my position when we have some actual data early next week. He seems to have stabilized @ 7/2 for now. I'd probably reback him if he drifts out to 9/2 as I think that would represent fair value.
Caveat; I could be wrong. I am quite often wrong. I'm generally more right than wrong though 0 -
Can a newspaper actually print "dickileaks" on a front page?! Seems a bit much. Won't somebody think of the children?MyBurningEars said:
In its genre, that is excellent. Up there with the best from the British red-tops.weejonnie said:0 -
Shit is going down in South Korea! It's like a plot from terrible fiction.0
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I think you said that once or twice before.SouthamObserver said:In other news, we need some rain.
ps - I had to do a double take the other day as I got an e mail from you re your day job.
Usually my mails from your company are from other people.0 -
A good Jewish matana m'elohim girl corrupted by marrying a Catholic.MyBurningEars said:twitter.com/maitlis/status/791705679648137216
Rather endearing story from Emily Maitlis.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/37799779
Tragic.
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President Park has made a public apology because there seems to be a shadow government behind her who approve all of her speeches and policies. She may also have been brainwashed by a cult in her twenties, the cult leader is in the shadow government, of course.Floater said:
They are trying to palm it off as leaked documents but it goes a lot deeper apparently. I think she will have to resign.0 -
Is there a bloke with a white cat involved? *gMaxPB said:
President Park has made a public apology because there seems to be a shadow government behind her who approve all of her speeches and policies. She may also have been brainwashed by a cult in her twenties, the cult leader is in the shadow government, of course.Floater said:
They are trying to palm it off as leaked documents but it goes a lot deeper apparently. I think she will have to resign.
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The BBC story has additional data. An educated lesbian in South Carolina for Trump, and a tie in Florida.MyBurningEars said:
The RCP average should be updated.0 -
8 women, apparently. They have had journalists, politicians and ordinary people locked up if any mention of their existence is made to the media. The probably have cats.Floater said:
Is there a bloke with a white cat involved? *gMaxPB said:
President Park has made a public apology because there seems to be a shadow government behind her who approve all of her speeches and policies. She may also have been brainwashed by a cult in her twenties, the cult leader is in the shadow government, of course.Floater said:
They are trying to palm it off as leaked documents but it goes a lot deeper apparently. I think she will have to resign.0 -
Seems to be just that a friend called Choi Soon-sil has too much influence and access. At first glance it reminded me more of Alastair Campbell.MaxPB said:
President Park has made a public apology because there seems to be a shadow government behind her who approve all of her speeches and policies. She may also have been brainwashed by a cult in her twenties, the cult leader is in the shadow government, of course.Floater said:
They are trying to palm it off as leaked documents but it goes a lot deeper apparently. I think she will have to resign.0 -
Clinton live on Fox
spin baby spin0 -
summary - nothing to see here0
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Ok, it gets weirder...MaxPB said:
8 women, apparently. They have had journalists, politicians and ordinary people locked up if any mention of their existence is made to the media. The probably have cats.Floater said:
Is there a bloke with a white cat involved? *gMaxPB said:
President Park has made a public apology because there seems to be a shadow government behind her who approve all of her speeches and policies. She may also have been brainwashed by a cult in her twenties, the cult leader is in the shadow government, of course.Floater said:
They are trying to palm it off as leaked documents but it goes a lot deeper apparently. I think she will have to resign.
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The Asian sex grooming scandal in Rotherham continues: Now a court has given lifetime anonymity to four men who preyed on a vulnerable girl for years. What IS going on?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3884026/The-Asian-sex-grooming-scandal-Rotherham-continues-court-given-lifetime-anonymity-four-men-preyed-vulnerable-girl-years-going-on.html0 -
She is looking a tad uncomfortable.
FFS - he couldn't snatch this could he......
Disclaimer I made a bet with my wife and one of my sons yesterday that Trump will never be president...... I will never live it down.....0 -
Or Carole Caplin and her showers with Cherie Blair.williamglenn said:
Seems to be just that a friend called Choi Soon-sil has too much influence and access. At first glance it reminded me more of Alastair Campbell.MaxPB said:
President Park has made a public apology because there seems to be a shadow government behind her who approve all of her speeches and policies. She may also have been brainwashed by a cult in her twenties, the cult leader is in the shadow government, of course.Floater said:
They are trying to palm it off as leaked documents but it goes a lot deeper apparently. I think she will have to resign.0 -
Hillary: "We've heard these rumours. We don't know what the FBI is talking about. It's incumbent upon them to tell us the facts."0
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Very quick appearance and off she goes0
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Why did you make such a prediction when Trump is only 4-5% behind in the polls?Floater said:She is looking a tad uncomfortable.
FFS - he couldn't snatch this could he......
Disclaimer I made a bet with my wife and one of my sons yesterday that Trump will never be president...... I will never live it down.....0 -
Be careful what you wish for...williamglenn said:Hillary: "We've heard these rumours. We don't know what the FBI is talking about. It's incumbent upon them to tell us the facts."
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I dont know whether to be intrigued or appalled :-)GeoffM said:
Or Carole Caplin and her showers with Cherie Blair.williamglenn said:
Seems to be just that a friend called Choi Soon-sil has too much influence and access. At first glance it reminded me more of Alastair Campbell.MaxPB said:
President Park has made a public apology because there seems to be a shadow government behind her who approve all of her speeches and policies. She may also have been brainwashed by a cult in her twenties, the cult leader is in the shadow government, of course.Floater said:
They are trying to palm it off as leaked documents but it goes a lot deeper apparently. I think she will have to resign.0 -
Because I couldn't see him winning perhaps?AndyJS said:
Why did you make such a prediction when Trump is only 4-5% behind in the polls?Floater said:She is looking a tad uncomfortable.
FFS - he couldn't snatch this could he......
Disclaimer I made a bet with my wife and one of my sons yesterday that Trump will never be president...... I will never live it down.....0 -
Seems Donald likes the FBI now.... what changed his mind :-)
Mind you that hashtag "crooked Hilary" is going to get a real work out for next 48 hours0 -
I think DNC and RNC should reopen nominations....350 million people and they got a giant racist douche and a lying turd sandwich to choose from.0
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Emily shouldn't worry about her phone bill - doubtless the BBC (i.e. you and me) will be picking up the tab.MyBurningEars said:https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/791705679648137216
Rather endearing story from Emily Maitlis.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/377997790 -
Perhaps the 'natural born citizen' requirement is the problem?FrancisUrquhart said:I think DNC and RNC should reopen nominations....350 million people and they got a giant racist douche and a lying turd sandwich to choose from.
We could have Arnie vs Arianna Huffington instead.0 -
The Park-Choi affair - sounds quite tasty...williamglenn said:
Seems to be just that a friend called Choi Soon-sil has too much influence and access. At first glance it reminded me more of Alastair Campbell.MaxPB said:
President Park has made a public apology because there seems to be a shadow government behind her who approve all of her speeches and policies. She may also have been brainwashed by a cult in her twenties, the cult leader is in the shadow government, of course.Floater said:
They are trying to palm it off as leaked documents but it goes a lot deeper apparently. I think she will have to resign.
:-)0 -
That's very good. Have a "Like".Nigelb said:
The Park-Choi affair - sounds quite tasty...williamglenn said:
Seems to be just that a friend called Choi Soon-sil has too much influence and access. At first glance it reminded me more of Alastair Campbell.MaxPB said:
President Park has made a public apology because there seems to be a shadow government behind her who approve all of her speeches and policies. She may also have been brainwashed by a cult in her twenties, the cult leader is in the shadow government, of course.Floater said:
They are trying to palm it off as leaked documents but it goes a lot deeper apparently. I think she will have to resign.
:-)0 -
Oh well - it's off to bed. No doubt when I wake up Bangladesh will be 120-3 and things will be back to Normal.0
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All that might well be true, but if nothing is determined before the election, which seems entirely possible, this has at least some potential to bolster the flagging Trump campaign.williamglenn said:Hillary: "We've heard these rumours. We don't know what the FBI is talking about. It's incumbent upon them to tell us the facts."
Disturbing.0 -
Because 4 to 5% is a statistically significant winning margin.AndyJS said:
Why did you make such a prediction when Trump is only 4-5% behind in the polls?Floater said:She is looking a tad uncomfortable.
FFS - he couldn't snatch this could he......
Disclaimer I made a bet with my wife and one of my sons yesterday that Trump will never be president...... I will never live it down.....
https://xkcd.com/1131/0 -
Indeed. To think how much better it could have been had the nominees been Cruz v Sanders.FrancisUrquhart said:I think DNC and RNC should reopen nominations....350 million people and they got a giant racist douche and a lying turd sandwich to choose from.
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Someone sent me a link to a petition calling on Clinton to be replaced as the Democratic candidate, but it's had very few signatures:FrancisUrquhart said:I think DNC and RNC should reopen nominations....350 million people and they got a giant racist douche and a lying turd sandwich to choose from.
https://www.change.org/p/democratic-national-committee-hillary-clinton-must-be-replaced-as-the-democratic-nominee-for-president0 -
It's nowhere near as daft as it sounds. Although Hillary has never had a big lead against Trump since the polls settled down last autumn, she's hardly ever dropped below 44% and he's hardly ever risen above it. He has a low ceiling and given his favourable scores with big demographics, seems unlikely to break through it. FWIW, despite today's story, I'd still hold on to those pieces of data. Even so, she only needs one bad day if it's the wrong bad day ...AndyJS said:
Why did you make such a prediction when Trump is only 4-5% behind in the polls?Floater said:She is looking a tad uncomfortable.
FFS - he couldn't snatch this could he......
Disclaimer I made a bet with my wife and one of my sons yesterday that Trump will never be president...... I will never live it down.....0 -
I'm home - hopefully TSE hasn't enjoyed his men beating Spurs kids in the Worthington Littlewoods Carling Cup too much in my absence.0
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OK, quick check
If you think this is a flash-in-the-pan and Clinton will be back in the lead next week, lay Trump/bet Clinton now in expectation of Trumps odds going further out next week
If you think this is a real thing and Trump will be in the lead next week, bet Trump/lay Clinton now in expectation of Trumps odds coming further in next week
Have I got this right?0 -
4-5% doesn't take account of Events, Dear Boy, Events.Philip_Thompson said:
Because 4 to 5% is a statistically significant winning margin.AndyJS said:
Why did you make such a prediction when Trump is only 4-5% behind in the polls?Floater said:She is looking a tad uncomfortable.
FFS - he couldn't snatch this could he......
Disclaimer I made a bet with my wife and one of my sons yesterday that Trump will never be president...... I will never live it down.....
https://xkcd.com/1131/0 -
The Economist is becoming very predictable these days — they've got a story on how Canada is the last bastion of liberal values:
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21709291-why-canada-still-ease-openness-last-liberals0 -
I hope, for the sake of all Americans everywhere, that the US is not a meritocracy. 'Cos if it is, ...david_herdson said:
Indeed. To think how much better it could have been had the nominees been Cruz v Sanders.FrancisUrquhart said:I think DNC and RNC should reopen nominations....350 million people and they got a giant racist douche and a lying turd sandwich to choose from.
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Some sections of the media are go more loopy for their dunce of a PM (regardless of politics the man ain't very bright) than when Obama got elected in the US.AndyJS said:The Economist is becoming very predictable these days — they've got a story on how Canada is the last bastion of liberal values:
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21709291-why-canada-still-ease-openness-last-liberals
I understood the initial Obamarama worship. First black president, bright guy, all hopey and changey stuff, following Bush Jnr...
But Trudeau, don't get it. He reminds me of those hipsters trying to flog £5 a bowl cereal in London. Trying so so so hard to be cool, but not a lot going on upstairs.0 -
Has Justin Trudeau won the Peace Prize yet?FrancisUrquhart said:
Some sections of the media are go more loopy for their dunce of a PM (regardless of politics the man ain't very bright) than when Obama got elected in the US.AndyJS said:The Economist is becoming very predictable these days — they've got a story on how Canada is the last bastion of liberal values:
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21709291-why-canada-still-ease-openness-last-liberals0 -
The way some sections of the media bang on about him, I am surprised they haven't launched a campaign to get him one.AndyJS said:
Has Justin Trudeau won the Peace Prize yet?FrancisUrquhart said:
Some sections of the media are go more loopy for their dunce of a PM (regardless of politics the man ain't very bright) than when Obama got elected in the US.AndyJS said:The Economist is becoming very predictable these days — they've got a story on how Canada is the last bastion of liberal values:
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21709291-why-canada-still-ease-openness-last-liberals0 -
Stupidly I didn't bet on HRC getting 300-329 EVs at 5-1 because I thought the odds will continue to increase. Today the odds are in to 100-30. D'oh!0
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Better? Different, certainly. I do like Sanders, but as president of the USA? That would be quite something. As for Cruz, he's a religious nut.david_herdson said:
Indeed. To think how much better it could have been had the nominees been Cruz v Sanders.FrancisUrquhart said:I think DNC and RNC should reopen nominations....350 million people and they got a giant racist douche and a lying turd sandwich to choose from.
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Instead of these spurious awards they should add a section to the Oscars for politicians.FrancisUrquhart said:
The way some sections of the media bang on about him, I am surprised they haven't launched a campaign to get him one.AndyJS said:
Has Justin Trudeau won the Peace Prize yet?FrancisUrquhart said:
Some sections of the media are go more loopy for their dunce of a PM (regardless of politics the man ain't very bright) than when Obama got elected in the US.AndyJS said:The Economist is becoming very predictable these days — they've got a story on how Canada is the last bastion of liberal values:
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21709291-why-canada-still-ease-openness-last-liberals0 -
Some of the newspapers here - now that Weiner is involved in the email scandal - are referring to the whole thing as Dickileaks. The NY Post had a headline 'Stroking Gun'.
What's the German for schadenfreude? 0 -
The reason they like him is because he finally defeated the Tories after 3 terms in power.FrancisUrquhart said:
The way some sections of the media bang on about him, I am surprised they haven't launched a campaign to get him one.AndyJS said:
Has Justin Trudeau won the Peace Prize yet?FrancisUrquhart said:
Some sections of the media are go more loopy for their dunce of a PM (regardless of politics the man ain't very bright) than when Obama got elected in the US.AndyJS said:The Economist is becoming very predictable these days — they've got a story on how Canada is the last bastion of liberal values:
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21709291-why-canada-still-ease-openness-last-liberals0
