Rhyl West on Denbighshire (Lab defence) Result: Lab 199 (48% +5% on 2012), Con 93 (22% -3% on 2012), Ind (Shone) 55 (13%), Ind (Webster) 42 (10%), Lib Dem 26 (6%, no candidate in 2012) Labour HOLD with a majority of 106 (26%) on a swing of 4% from Con to Lab Total Independent vote: 97 (23% +6% on 2012)
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37801564
I guess it is time for Joe to make some serious money, rather than doing a proper job.
2 LibDem gains, 2 Tory, 2 Independents, 1 Local Residents, 1 Labour, 1 UKIP, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 SNP.
Net position: Labour down 5, Tories down 2, UKIP a wash, LibDems up 2.
Seems to me the story is that Labour are the losers....
If the Democrat lead in the early voting fails to increase we will have some indication.
May be some effect tomorrow, but 1st day will be on Sunday. (assuming you can vote during the weekend).
Polls will take 3 days or so to get up to date (except for the weekly trackers which will take 7 days but a trend may become noticeable.
I'd guess you are probably right that only the Labour number is statistically significant.
"In connection with an unrelated case, the FBI has learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation … I agreed that the FBI should take appropriate investigative steps designed to allow investigators to review these emails to determine whether they contain classified information, as well as to assess their importance to our investigation."
Rather endearing story from Emily Maitlis.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/37799779
Previously punters have been rather overenthusiastic about the impact similar stories would have.
That was my hunch when I laid trump @ 3/1 once I'd confirmed that;
a ) Hilary was alive and well.
b ) The story didn't appear to have much substance to it and there was unlikely to be anything further before polling day.
c ) there wasn't any other news in the public domain that was affecting her campaign.
I expect the resulting media cycle will knock a point or two off Hillary's vote - which only really matters in ohio & Florida. It may make Utah even more interesting - I think it's more likely that the egg mcmuffin rather than the Donald will benefit from a further decline in Hillary's vote there.
I'll reassess my position when we have some actual data early next week. He seems to have stabilized @ 7/2 for now. I'd probably reback him if he drifts out to 9/2 as I think that would represent fair value.
Caveat; I could be wrong. I am quite often wrong. I'm generally more right than wrong though
ps - I had to do a double take the other day as I got an e mail from you re your day job.
Usually my mails from your company are from other people.
((innocent face))
Tragic.
They are trying to palm it off as leaked documents but it goes a lot deeper apparently. I think she will have to resign.
The RCP average should be updated.
spin baby spin
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3884026/The-Asian-sex-grooming-scandal-Rotherham-continues-court-given-lifetime-anonymity-four-men-preyed-vulnerable-girl-years-going-on.html
FFS - he couldn't snatch this could he......
Disclaimer I made a bet with my wife and one of my sons yesterday that Trump will never be president...... I will never live it down.....
Mind you that hashtag "crooked Hilary" is going to get a real work out for next 48 hours
We could have Arnie vs Arianna Huffington instead.
:-)
Disturbing.
https://xkcd.com/1131/
https://www.change.org/p/democratic-national-committee-hillary-clinton-must-be-replaced-as-the-democratic-nominee-for-president
If you think this is a flash-in-the-pan and Clinton will be back in the lead next week, lay Trump/bet Clinton now in expectation of Trumps odds going further out next week
If you think this is a real thing and Trump will be in the lead next week, bet Trump/lay Clinton now in expectation of Trumps odds coming further in next week
Have I got this right?
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21709291-why-canada-still-ease-openness-last-liberals
I understood the initial Obamarama worship. First black president, bright guy, all hopey and changey stuff, following Bush Jnr...
But Trudeau, don't get it. He reminds me of those hipsters trying to flog £5 a bowl cereal in London. Trying so so so hard to be cool, but not a lot going on upstairs.
What's the German for schadenfreude?