politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s “cunning plan” for the Richmond Park by-election

PlatoSaid said:

williamglenn said:

Jonathan said:

Sean_F said:

O/T Parisian vandals have destroyed a giant inflatable butt-plug

https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahjewell/the-parisian-butt-plug-christmas-tree-has-been-destroyed?utm_term=.irNQqrqp8#.jvdxava97

Clearly too early. Who wants Christmas trees in October?

The story is two years old.

Does that diminish the amusement?

Are you today's fun sponge pedant?

No but I remember the hoo-ha at the time so when I first saw Sean's post I assumed the objet had been resurrected and put on display again.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Essexit, alas, the last proper Civ I played was II, in about 1999.

Bring it to consoles, damnit!

Initially I saw 'Civ I' and read 'Civ One'.

It is a baffling decision to not do at least one proper Civ for consoles.

Mr. Essexit, I know. But there we are.

There'd have to be downgrades in features or graphics, but I still think it'd do well. Not a fan of platform exclusivity (it's a bit daft that PC/Xbox owners can't play The Last Of Us, arguably the best game ever made).

National - NBC/WSJ - Sample 804 - 21-24 Oct

Clinton 46 .. Trump 37

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/27/clinton-nearly-doubles-lead-over-trump-in-latest-cnbc-survey.html

National Tracker - ABC/WAPO - Sample 1,135 - 22-25 Oct

Clinton 48 .. Trump 42

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/slight-shifts-intention-aid-trump-amid-anxiety-candidates/story?id=43080562

National Tracker - Rasmussen - Sample 1,500 - 24-26 Oct

Clinton 45 .. Trump 44

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct27

Pennsylvania - Siena College - Sample 824 - 23-25 Oct

Clinton 49 .. Trump 42

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/27/upshot/pennsylvania-poll.html?_r=0

MTimT said:

Anyone know the details of the Belgian amendments to CETA that made it possible for Wallonia to get on board and if these are likely to be acceptable to the Canadians?

I don't think there are any amendments to CETA, just unrelated concessions to the Belgian regions from the Belgian government.

JackW said:

Pennsylvania - Siena College - Sample 824 - 23-25 Oct

Clinton 49 .. Trump 42

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/27/upshot/pennsylvania-poll.html?_r=0

Jack...is it not time that you got a new portrait done? You have probably aged a bit since that one was done, or am I wrong?

Tim_B said:

Gardenwalker said:

Tim_B said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_X said:

Roger said:

A serious question. Do any of the right-wingers on PB work? Reading PB it doesn't seem like it.

The most prolific posters are those with verifiable real-life achievements to their name. How that works I have no idea, unless you can subcontract thriller-writing to the Indians for 3 rupees a day, like with software.

I'm between thrillers. But I have an idea, a location, a plot, for a new thriller, and I will begin writing in January, so I will be much less visible on here (I hope)

Incidentally, if Roger's still about, the would-be makers of The Ice Twins movie, in Hollywood, have found a director.

On the good side, he's made some critically well received movies, and even been selected at Cannes by the jury etc

On the bad side, his last movie, budgeted at about $8m, made $5000

Hmmm. Wonder who that was (checks Wikipedia for winners of the jury prize)...

I was going to say Frédéric Auburtin but he is worse than that budget $25m box office $607.

I was wondering about Michael Cimino, director of Heaven's Gate....

He's dead, isn't he?

Given Hollywood's expertise in creative accounting, why would that be a factor?

- what about Roger?

Our Roger has great taste in movies.

Gardenwalker said:

Tim_B said:

eek said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_X said:

Roger said:

A serious question. Do any of the right-wingers on PB work? Reading PB it doesn't seem like it.

The most prolific posters are those with verifiable real-life achievements to their name. How that works I have no idea, unless you can subcontract thriller-writing to the Indians for 3 rupees a day, like with software.

I'm between thrillers. But I have an idea, a location, a plot, for a new thriller, and I will begin writing in January, so I will be much less visible on here (I hope)

Incidentally, if Roger's still about, the would-be makers of The Ice Twins movie, in Hollywood, have found a director.

On the good side, he's made some critically well received movies, and even been selected at Cannes by the jury etc

On the bad side, his last movie, budgeted at about $8m, made $5000

Hmmm. Wonder who that was (checks Wikipedia for winners of the jury prize)...

I was going to say Frédéric Auburtin but he is worse than that budget $25m box office $607.

I was wondering about Michael Cimino, director of Heaven's Gate....

He's dead, isn't he?

That would make it a hell of a coup..

I would appreciate fellow PBers ripping my analysis to shreds as I have bet some money on this but may go more. Looking at the data, I think HRC is in a lot of trouble in North Carolina.

Go to http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/ It is wordy but good. The key number here is "in person" ballots, not the total absentee as, at this stage it is skewed by mail-in (in 2012, I think 90% of total absentee voting was in-person).

Scroll down until you hit the paragraph starting "In looking at the party registration of in-person absentee voters..." and look at the chart: Democrats are down sharply - 48 percent of the total in-person ballots, down 13 percent from their same-day totals in 2012;Republicans are 28 percent, down slightly at 1 percent from 2012, and registered unaffiliated voters are 24 percent of the total in-person ballots, up 27 percent from their 2012 same-day totals.

But that is not the worst part for HRC: where there seems to be a noticeable drop-off is in African-American early voters as per the charts. Here is the data:

African-American share of absentee in-person votes by day

2012 2016
Day 1 37 28
Day 2 32 24
3 36 27
4 43 36
5 33 25
6 31 22
7 28 21

Millennials also look to be under-represented in early voting (13% of the total).

It may be this changes when early voting in NC expands but it does not look to be impacting other demographics. It appears AAs are less motivated - and that seems to be the case coming out of Ohio as well (-10%). It would also explai why the Obamas are so much on the trail.

From a betting standpoint, I have been putting a few bets on states where the Democrats need heavy AA turn-out and where the White population is more non/some College e.g. MI, PA, OH, even a cheeky bet on NJ.....

DYOR

tyson said:

Jack...is it not time that you got a new portrait done? You have probably aged a bit since that one was done, or am I wrong?

Monkey glands ....

Blimey ...
https://twitter.com/tes/status/791650445588570112

nunu said:

MTimT said:

Anyone know the details of the Belgian amendments to CETA that made it possible for Wallonia to get on board and if these are likely to be acceptable to the Canadians?

That's the French half of Belgium right.....

Yes - the rich, relatively liberal north is Dutch-speaking, the poorer, protectionist south is French-speaking. Funny that.

(also, what's the Dutch equivalent of 'Francophone'?)

Essexit said:

nunu said:

MTimT said:

Anyone know the details of the Belgian amendments to CETA that made it possible for Wallonia to get on board and if these are likely to be acceptable to the Canadians?

That's the French half of Belgium right.....

Yes - the rich, relatively liberal north is Dutch-speaking, the poorer, protectionist south is French-speaking. Funny that.

(also, what's the Dutch equivalent of 'Francophone'?)

Eidelvokker

TheKitchenCabinet said:

I would appreciate fellow PBers ripping my analysis to shreds as I have bet some money on this but may go more. Looking at the data, I think HRC is in a lot of trouble in North Carolina.

Go to http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/ It is wordy but good. The key number here is "in person" ballots, not the total absentee as, at this stage it is skewed by mail-in (in 2012, I think 90% of total absentee voting was in-person).

Scroll down until you hit the paragraph starting "In looking at the party registration of in-person absentee voters..." and look at the chart: Democrats are down sharply - 48 percent of the total in-person ballots, down 13 percent from their same-day totals in 2012;Republicans are 28 percent, down slightly at 1 percent from 2012, and registered unaffiliated voters are 24 percent of the total in-person ballots, up 27 percent from their 2012 same-day totals.

But that is not the worst part for HRC: where there seems to be a noticeable drop-off is in African-American early voters as per the charts. Here is the data:

African-American share of absentee in-person votes by day

2012 2016
Day 1 37 28
Day 2 32 24
3 36 27
4 43 36
5 33 25
6 31 22
7 28 21

Millennials also look to be under-represented in early voting (13% of the total).

It may be this changes when early voting in NC expands but it does not look to be impacting other demographics. It appears AAs are less motivated - and that seems to be the case coming out of Ohio as well (-10%). It would also explai why the Obamas are so much on the trail.

From a betting standpoint, I have been putting a few bets on states where the Democrats need heavy AA turn-out and where the White population is more non/some College e.g. MI, PA, OH, even a cheeky bet on NJ.....

DYOR

Great post: terrific betting hat tip here.

I'm very nervous in the sense that I think Trump may pull out a much tighter result than most national polls suggest: nervous not from a betting POV as I'm on Trump but from a personal POV as I can't say I like him.

As for Richmond, I see that UKIP will be supporting Goldsmith 'in order to stop the LD's from winning' http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-backs-goldsmith-to-block-lib-dem-win-10634260

SouthamObserver said:

Blimey ...
https://twitter.com/tes/status/791650445588570112

lol.

Gove.

I have reached the conclusion that yet again Don Brind is having a laugh.

The number of early polling places have been restricted in a number of AA heavy areas. This changes over the next few days. IIRC in 2012 the first two days of early voting was over the weekend. Also AA voters have Sunday "souls to the polls" events.

I would suggest it's probably wiser to wait until mid next week to get a fuller picture.



Jack W, agree and that has been the one factor that has held me back piling in morebut HRC should probably also be worried re the millennials / unaffiliated data (if independents are breaking for Trump).

More broadly, we do not have much early voting in states with high AA urban populations but, in what there is (NC and Ohio), it does not look good for the Democrats.

Ouch! Messiah Trump spreads the word of anti-Trumper Michael Moore:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/791648893725450240?lang=en-gb

Thanks Jenny - I have a slight personal interest in it that my wife's family are AA. The only ones who are enthusiastic about HRC are her parents and that is because they grew up in the Civil Rights era. The rest do not like her.

JackW said:

tyson said:

Jack...is it not time that you got a new portrait done? You have probably aged a bit since that one was done, or am I wrong?

Monkey glands ....

Baboon's ARSE?

Alanbrooke said:

Essexit said:

nunu said:

MTimT said:

Anyone know the details of the Belgian amendments to CETA that made it possible for Wallonia to get on board and if these are likely to be acceptable to the Canadians?

That's the French half of Belgium right.....

Yes - the rich, relatively liberal north is Dutch-speaking, the poorer, protectionist south is French-speaking. Funny that.

(also, what's the Dutch equivalent of 'Francophone'?)

Eidelvokker

Isn't that how they refer to their less industrious southern countrymen?

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

tyson said:

Jack...is it not time that you got a new portrait done? You have probably aged a bit since that one was done, or am I wrong?

Monkey glands ....

Baboon's ARSE?

I bow to your greater experience on the matter ....

@MP_SE


'Farron is so annoyingly predictable. He strikes me as the sort of person who would consistently fall for a 2 move checkmate in chess. '


Was Farron the only Lib Dem MP not to get a job in the coalition government ?.

john_zims said:

@MP_SE


'Farron is so annoyingly predictable. He strikes me as the sort of person who would consistently fall for a 2 move checkmate in chess. '


Was Farron the only Lib Dem MP not to get a job in the coalition government ?.

IIRC he refused one. As did Kennedy.

Essexit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Essexit, alas, the last proper Civ I played was II, in about 1999.

Bring it to consoles, damnit!

Initially I saw 'Civ I' and read 'Civ One'.

It is a baffling decision to not do at least one proper Civ for consoles.

Civilisation Revolution is a great under rated game. It is Civ with all the boring micro removed.

I would hazard a guess that those areas of the country that voted Remain/Leave in greater margins are also more passionate about their cause. So an area with 70% remain is likely to be comprised of those who were very passionately for remain , and an area with 53% remain is likely to be mostly 'go with the flow' remainers. Vice Versa for Leave.

My point therefore being that the 70% remain in Richmond are significantly less likely to have "accepted" brexit than those in a close race such as Witney, and will be more susceptible to an anti brexit campaign - so more favour to the LDs

"Axa has recommitted to completing the City's biggest tower: 22 Bishopsgate"

As a fine point of interest 22 Bishopsgate is the the original site of Crosby Hall. Built in the 1370's as part of his London home the Hall was dismantled in 1908 and subsequently re-erected in Chelsea just to the North East of Battersea bridge on land that was once Sir Thomas Moore's orchard - Sir Thomas having been a tenant of the Hall in the early 16th century.

Anyone wishing for a copy of the definitive(ish) history of Crosby Hall should apply to HurstLlama and Sons, random historians.

Mr. Alistair, Revolution was enjoyable but not in-depth enough. It did what it said on the tin, though.

TheKitchenCabinet said:

I would appreciate fellow PBers ripping my analysis to shreds as I have bet some money on this but may go more. Looking at the data, I think HRC is in a lot of trouble in North Carolina.

Go to http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/ It is wordy but good. The key number here is "in person" ballots, not the total absentee as, at this stage it is skewed by mail-in (in 2012, I think 90% of total absentee voting was in-person).

Scroll down until you hit the paragraph starting "In looking at the party registration of in-person absentee voters..." and look at the chart: Democrats are down sharply - 48 percent of the total in-person ballots, down 13 percent from their same-day totals in 2012;Republicans are 28 percent, down slightly at 1 percent from 2012, and registered unaffiliated voters are 24 percent of the total in-person ballots, up 27 percent from their 2012 same-day totals.

But that is not the worst part for HRC: where there seems to be a noticeable drop-off is in African-American early voters as per the charts. Here is the data:

African-American share of absentee in-person votes by day

2012 2016
Day 1 37 28
Day 2 32 24
3 36 27
4 43 36
5 33 25
6 31 22
7 28 21

Millennials also look to be under-represented in early voting (13% of the total).

It may be this changes when early voting in NC expands but it does not look to be impacting other demographics. It appears AAs are less motivated - and that seems to be the case coming out of Ohio as well (-10%). It would also explai why the Obamas are so much on the trail.

From a betting standpoint, I have been putting a few bets on states where the Democrats need heavy AA turn-out and where the White population is more non/some College e.g. MI, PA, OH, even a cheeky bet on NJ.....

DYOR

This ties with what I've been saying about Florida; Dems so far seem substantially weaker on the in-person vote compared to previous elections.

HurstLlama said:

"Axa has recommitted to completing the City's biggest tower: 22 Bishopsgate"

As a fine point of interest 22 Bishopsgate is the the original site of Crosby Hall. Built in the 1370's as part of his London home the Hall was dismantled in 1908 and subsequently re-erected in Chelsea just to the North East of Battersea bridge on land that was once Sir Thomas Moore's orchard - Sir Thomas having been a tenant of the Hall in the early 16th century.

Anyone wishing for a copy of the definitive(ish) history of Crosby Hall should apply to HurstLlama and Sons, random historians.

Tis a fine building and perfectly situated – although following a fire in 1672 only the Great Hall and Parlour wing are the only original bits according to wiki.

In the header Don Brind quotes an anonymous MP as saying, with regard to Zac Goldsmith:
“The man’s a disgrace. His office is just along the corridor from mine and I never see him. He obviously doesn’t want to be an MP."
I've inserted the closing inverted commas since curiously he omitted them.
This rather obnoxious so-called quote would have a great deal more credibility if it was properly attributed to the person concerned, whoever that might have been.
It also begs the question as to how Zac Goldsmith has succeeded in establishing such a huge level of personal support within his constituency and thereby a massive majority if as the quote rather snidely suggests he had failed in assiduously performing his duties as an MP.
If, in fact, he was absent from the HoC to a greater extent than is normal (whatever that might be), perhaps that was as a result of Mr Goldsmith instead spending a proportionately greater period of time in Richmond Park, meeting with and supporting the needs and interests of his constituents. I wonder whether Mr Brind has bothered to consider such a possibility.
Does he consider I wonder, that Gordon Brown was "a disgrace" in barely ever attending the House after ceasing to be Prime Minister?

the Liberal Democrats have suspended Baroness Tonge. Anti-semitism, again and again and again........

F1: just put tiny sums on the Ferrari/Raikkonen bets.

If Perez wins I reserve the right to throw myself off a balcony.

Edited extra bit: just put a tiny sum on Perez as a form of balcony suicide insurance.

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

YellowSubmarine said:

david_herdson said:

MP_SE said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/791642791382097921

Farron is so annoyingly predictable. He strikes me as the sort of person who would consistently fall for a 2 move checkmate in chess.

Farron is a pound-shop Charles Kennedy, without the humour or drinking problem but with the same fundamental lack of substance.

Kennedy had huge substance. He also had crippling alcoholism.

Agreed. His opposition to the Iraq war was not only the right call but one requiring huge moral courage and principle. He knew how the "our boys" media playing with their toys would respond and did it anyway. A remarkable man and a great loss.

His view also had about two-thirds of the country behind it, as well as virtually his entire party, which made it rather less politically dangerous. Indeed, for him, supporting the government would have been the more politically dangerous move.

Not the way I remember it. All of the media was onside, Blair was totally dominant, Campbell scared off any questions and IDS was, well, IDS. An irrelevant joke who led his party into support. There was a lot of mumbling in the country but it was a brave thing to do.

Never let it be forgotten how disgracefully IDS behaved throughout the whole affair. He was actually banging the drum well before Blair after some shameful manoeuvres in Washington in late 2001 in which he tried to undermine the Atlantic alliance for his own ends.

Hush, honourable man misled by tricky Tony and artful Ali is the correct narrative. Though how IDS contrived to be misled over a year before the misleading took place is a mystery to this day.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/791675337847500800

National - YouGov/Economist - Sample 1,371 - 22-26 Oct

Clinton 46 .. Trump 41

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/27/yougoveconomist-poll-october-22-26-2016/

tlg86 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/791675337847500800

http://order-order.com/2015/09/21/watson-welcomes-jihad-jenny-defection-talk/

TCPoliticalBetting said:

the Liberal Democrats have suspended Baroness Tonge. Anti-semitism, again and again and again........

She's been doing this for years, i don't understand why they keep her around. I can see why/how Corbyns lot justify it to themselves but it's not clear why Farron, Clegg et al permitted it in their party? As far as I understand anti-semitism is not widespread in the party and it doesn't really fit in with any liberal ideology

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Gardenwalker said:

tlg86 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/791675337847500800

Tonge was, of course, former MP for Richmond.
Perhaps she can renounce her peerage and run for Corbyn's Labour.

Apparently Tonge was already considering an offer to join Labour. aka Anti-SemitesR-Us

Contrary to my earlier post, perhaps Shami has recruited her, after thorough vetting.

Peter Walker✔ @peterwalker99
Labour have put out a statement hailing the govt's decision to drop grammar school plan. But they've not. It's a different education bill.

Paristonda said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

the Liberal Democrats have suspended Baroness Tonge. Anti-semitism, again and again and again........

She's been doing this for years, i don't understand why they keep her around. I can see why/how Corbyns lot justify it to themselves but it's not clear why Farron, Clegg et al permitted it in their party? As far as I understand anti-semitism is not widespread in the party and it doesn't really fit in with any liberal ideology

The problem with the Lib Dems is that they have tolerated anti-Semitism for years. They occasionally suspend someone but they always return.

I guess it is a kind of a plan.

https://twitter.com/stvharry/status/791660912117702656

TGOHF said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

the Liberal Democrats have suspended Baroness Tonge. Anti-semitism, again and again and again........

Why is she just being suspended now ? To keep her away from the b/e ?

IIRC, she is an Independent. But that happened years ago. The Tory spin machine sometimes finds it hard to keep up.

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I guess it is a kind of a plan.

https://twitter.com/stvharry/status/791660912117702656

No one has left the EU before, so of course we have to make it up.

*Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "Greenland"*

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlandic_European_Communities_membership_referendum,_1982

OT... new Apple laptops out today. They are apparently ditching the escape key, is nothing sacred!

RobD said:

OT... new Apple laptops out today. They are apparently ditching the escape key, is nothing sacred!

Isn't that an EU directive?

PClipp said:

TGOHF said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

the Liberal Democrats have suspended Baroness Tonge. Anti-semitism, again and again and again........

Why is she just being suspended now ? To keep her away from the b/e ?

IIRC, she is an Independent. But that happened years ago. The Tory spin machine sometimes finds it hard to keep up.

"Independent Liberal Democrat" - until today, natch.