A serious question. Do any of the right-wingers on PB work? Reading PB it doesn't seem like it.
The most prolific posters are those with verifiable real-life achievements to their name. How that works I have no idea, unless you can subcontract thriller-writing to the Indians for 3 rupees a day, like with software.
I'm between thrillers. But I have an idea, a location, a plot, for a new thriller, and I will begin writing in January, so I will be much less visible on here (I hope)
Will it involve severed tongues, Swedish boiling, blood-eagling, being cooked in a big pressure cooker, or orangutang rape?
Sadly not. It's S K Tremayne not Tom Knox. I yearn to go back to Tom Knox, I've got a great idea for a thriller set in Greenland, which is just the creepiest place ever, a place where people eat their owb children in times of famine, and dolls are made out of dead toddlers.
.
I'll look forward to it. I've always been fascinated by the complete disappearance of the Danish population, for reasons that no one has ever established.
There'd have to be downgrades in features or graphics, but I still think it'd do well. Not a fan of platform exclusivity (it's a bit daft that PC/Xbox owners can't play The Last Of Us, arguably the best game ever made).
Anyone know the details of the Belgian amendments to CETA that made it possible for Wallonia to get on board and if these are likely to be acceptable to the Canadians?
Anyone know the details of the Belgian amendments to CETA that made it possible for Wallonia to get on board and if these are likely to be acceptable to the Canadians?
I don't think there are any amendments to CETA, just unrelated concessions to the Belgian regions from the Belgian government.
A serious question. Do any of the right-wingers on PB work? Reading PB it doesn't seem like it.
The most prolific posters are those with verifiable real-life achievements to their name. How that works I have no idea, unless you can subcontract thriller-writing to the Indians for 3 rupees a day, like with software.
I'm between thrillers. But I have an idea, a location, a plot, for a new thriller, and I will begin writing in January, so I will be much less visible on here (I hope)
Incidentally, if Roger's still about, the would-be makers of The Ice Twins movie, in Hollywood, have found a director.
On the good side, he's made some critically well received movies, and even been selected at Cannes by the jury etc
On the bad side, his last movie, budgeted at about $8m, made $5000
Hmmm. Wonder who that was (checks Wikipedia for winners of the jury prize)...
I was going to say Frédéric Auburtin but he is worse than that budget $25m box office $607.
I was wondering about Michael Cimino, director of Heaven's Gate....
He's dead, isn't he?
Given Hollywood's expertise in creative accounting, why would that be a factor?
Anyone know the details of the Belgian amendments to CETA that made it possible for Wallonia to get on board and if these are likely to be acceptable to the Canadians?
I don't think there are any amendments to CETA, just unrelated concessions to the Belgian regions from the Belgian government.
"unrelated" - no connection whatsoever, honest guv. The principled protectors of workers' rights have taken a bung.
A serious question. Do any of the right-wingers on PB work? Reading PB it doesn't seem like it.
The most prolific posters are those with verifiable real-life achievements to their name. How that works I have no idea, unless you can subcontract thriller-writing to the Indians for 3 rupees a day, like with software.
I'm between thrillers. But I have an idea, a location, a plot, for a new thriller, and I will begin writing in January, so I will be much less visible on here (I hope)
Incidentally, if Roger's still about, the would-be makers of The Ice Twins movie, in Hollywood, have found a director.
On the good side, he's made some critically well received movies, and even been selected at Cannes by the jury etc
On the bad side, his last movie, budgeted at about $8m, made $5000
Hmmm. Wonder who that was (checks Wikipedia for winners of the jury prize)...
I was going to say Frédéric Auburtin but he is worse than that budget $25m box office $607.
I was wondering about Michael Cimino, director of Heaven's Gate....
I would appreciate fellow PBers ripping my analysis to shreds as I have bet some money on this but may go more. Looking at the data, I think HRC is in a lot of trouble in North Carolina.
Go to http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/ It is wordy but good. The key number here is "in person" ballots, not the total absentee as, at this stage it is skewed by mail-in (in 2012, I think 90% of total absentee voting was in-person).
Scroll down until you hit the paragraph starting "In looking at the party registration of in-person absentee voters..." and look at the chart: Democrats are down sharply - 48 percent of the total in-person ballots, down 13 percent from their same-day totals in 2012;Republicans are 28 percent, down slightly at 1 percent from 2012, and registered unaffiliated voters are 24 percent of the total in-person ballots, up 27 percent from their 2012 same-day totals.
But that is not the worst part for HRC: where there seems to be a noticeable drop-off is in African-American early voters as per the charts. Here is the data:
African-American share of absentee in-person votes by day
Millennials also look to be under-represented in early voting (13% of the total).
It may be this changes when early voting in NC expands but it does not look to be impacting other demographics. It appears AAs are less motivated - and that seems to be the case coming out of Ohio as well (-10%). It would also explai why the Obamas are so much on the trail.
From a betting standpoint, I have been putting a few bets on states where the Democrats need heavy AA turn-out and where the White population is more non/some College e.g. MI, PA, OH, even a cheeky bet on NJ.....
Anyone know the details of the Belgian amendments to CETA that made it possible for Wallonia to get on board and if these are likely to be acceptable to the Canadians?
Anyone know the details of the Belgian amendments to CETA that made it possible for Wallonia to get on board and if these are likely to be acceptable to the Canadians?
I don't think there are any amendments to CETA, just unrelated concessions to the Belgian regions from the Belgian government.
"unrelated" - no connection whatsoever, honest guv. The principled protectors of workers' rights have taken a bung.
The Guardian says this:
"One concession he [the Walloon leader] won means Belgium would be able to go to the European court of justice to determine whether the new investor-state tribunals are compatible with EU law. The four-page document also contains a guarantee that the Belgian government will assess the socio-economic and environmental impact of Ceta."
Apparently there is a 4 page Walloon annex to the Ceta treaty.
As I predicted when some were crowing on here about the failed agreement - the Walloons will have their arms twisted.
Farron is so annoyingly predictable. He strikes me as the sort of person who would consistently fall for a 2 move checkmate in chess.
Farron is a pound-shop Charles Kennedy, without the humour or drinking problem but with the same fundamental lack of substance.
Kennedy had huge substance. He also had crippling alcoholism.
Agreed. His opposition to the Iraq war was not only the right call but one requiring huge moral courage and principle. He knew how the "our boys" media playing with their toys would respond and did it anyway. A remarkable man and a great loss.
Anyone know the details of the Belgian amendments to CETA that made it possible for Wallonia to get on board and if these are likely to be acceptable to the Canadians?
That's the French half of Belgium right.....
Yes - the rich, relatively liberal north is Dutch-speaking, the poorer, protectionist south is French-speaking. Funny that.
(also, what's the Dutch equivalent of 'Francophone'?)
Anyone know the details of the Belgian amendments to CETA that made it possible for Wallonia to get on board and if these are likely to be acceptable to the Canadians?
That's the French half of Belgium right.....
Yes - the rich, relatively liberal north is Dutch-speaking, the poorer, protectionist south is French-speaking. Funny that.
(also, what's the Dutch equivalent of 'Francophone'?)
Anyone know the details of the Belgian amendments to CETA that made it possible for Wallonia to get on board and if these are likely to be acceptable to the Canadians?
That's the French half of Belgium right.....
Yes - the rich, relatively liberal north is Dutch-speaking, the poorer, protectionist south is French-speaking. Funny that.
(also, what's the Dutch equivalent of 'Francophone'?)
I would appreciate fellow PBers ripping my analysis to shreds as I have bet some money on this but may go more. Looking at the data, I think HRC is in a lot of trouble in North Carolina.
Go to http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/ It is wordy but good. The key number here is "in person" ballots, not the total absentee as, at this stage it is skewed by mail-in (in 2012, I think 90% of total absentee voting was in-person).
Scroll down until you hit the paragraph starting "In looking at the party registration of in-person absentee voters..." and look at the chart: Democrats are down sharply - 48 percent of the total in-person ballots, down 13 percent from their same-day totals in 2012;Republicans are 28 percent, down slightly at 1 percent from 2012, and registered unaffiliated voters are 24 percent of the total in-person ballots, up 27 percent from their 2012 same-day totals.
But that is not the worst part for HRC: where there seems to be a noticeable drop-off is in African-American early voters as per the charts. Here is the data:
African-American share of absentee in-person votes by day
Millennials also look to be under-represented in early voting (13% of the total).
It may be this changes when early voting in NC expands but it does not look to be impacting other demographics. It appears AAs are less motivated - and that seems to be the case coming out of Ohio as well (-10%). It would also explai why the Obamas are so much on the trail.
From a betting standpoint, I have been putting a few bets on states where the Democrats need heavy AA turn-out and where the White population is more non/some College e.g. MI, PA, OH, even a cheeky bet on NJ.....
DYOR
Great post: terrific betting hat tip here.
I'm very nervous in the sense that I think Trump may pull out a much tighter result than most national polls suggest: nervous not from a betting POV as I'm on Trump but from a personal POV as I can't say I like him.
I would appreciate fellow PBers ripping my analysis to shreds as I have bet some money on this but may go more. Looking at the data, I think HRC is in a lot of trouble in North Carolina.
Go to http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/ It is wordy but good. The key number here is "in person" ballots, not the total absentee as, at this stage it is skewed by mail-in (in 2012, I think 90% of total absentee voting was in-person).
Scroll down until you hit the paragraph starting "In looking at the party registration of in-person absentee voters..." and look at the chart: Democrats are down sharply - 48 percent of the total in-person ballots, down 13 percent from their same-day totals in 2012;Republicans are 28 percent, down slightly at 1 percent from 2012, and registered unaffiliated voters are 24 percent of the total in-person ballots, up 27 percent from their 2012 same-day totals.
But that is not the worst part for HRC: where there seems to be a noticeable drop-off is in African-American early voters as per the charts. Here is the data:
African-American share of absentee in-person votes by day
The number of early polling places have been restricted in a number of AA heavy areas. This changes over the next few days. IIRC in 2012 the first two days of early voting was over the weekend. Also AA voters have Sunday "souls to the polls" events.
I would suggest it's probably wiser to wait until mid next week to get a fuller picture.
Farron is so annoyingly predictable. He strikes me as the sort of person who would consistently fall for a 2 move checkmate in chess.
Farron is a pound-shop Charles Kennedy, without the humour or drinking problem but with the same fundamental lack of substance.
Kennedy had huge substance. He also had crippling alcoholism.
Agreed. His opposition to the Iraq war was not only the right call but one requiring huge moral courage and principle. He knew how the "our boys" media playing with their toys would respond and did it anyway. A remarkable man and a great loss.
His view also had about two-thirds of the country behind it, as well as virtually his entire party, which made it rather less politically dangerous. Indeed, for him, supporting the government would have been the more politically dangerous move.
The number of early polling places have been restricted in a number of AA heavy areas. This changes over the next few days. IIRC in 2012 the first two days of early voting was over the weekend. Also AA voters have Sunday "souls to the polls" events.
I would suggest it's probably wiser to wait until mid next week to get a fuller picture.
Jack W, agree and that has been the one factor that has held me back piling in morebut HRC should probably also be worried re the millennials / unaffiliated data (if independents are breaking for Trump).
More broadly, we do not have much early voting in states with high AA urban populations but, in what there is (NC and Ohio), it does not look good for the Democrats.
The force all schools to be academies wasn't gove, he was well gone, it was an Osborne wheeze. And a bloody stupid one at that.
I never understood how 'Freedom of Choice' could be 'Compulsory'......it was just one more piece of evidence for why Osborne is completely unsuited to be PM......
Thanks Jenny - I have a slight personal interest in it that my wife's family are AA. The only ones who are enthusiastic about HRC are her parents and that is because they grew up in the Civil Rights era. The rest do not like her.
The force all schools to be academies wasn't gove, he was well gone, it was an Osborne wheeze. And a bloody stupid one at that.
I never understood how 'Freedom of Choice' could be 'Compulsory'......it was just one more piece of evidence for why Osborne is completely unsuited to be PM......
Anyone know the details of the Belgian amendments to CETA that made it possible for Wallonia to get on board and if these are likely to be acceptable to the Canadians?
That's the French half of Belgium right.....
Yes - the rich, relatively liberal north is Dutch-speaking, the poorer, protectionist south is French-speaking. Funny that.
(also, what's the Dutch equivalent of 'Francophone'?)
Eidelvokker
Isn't that how they refer to their less industrious southern countrymen?
Farron is so annoyingly predictable. He strikes me as the sort of person who would consistently fall for a 2 move checkmate in chess.
Farron is a pound-shop Charles Kennedy, without the humour or drinking problem but with the same fundamental lack of substance.
Kennedy had huge substance. He also had crippling alcoholism.
Agreed. His opposition to the Iraq war was not only the right call but one requiring huge moral courage and principle. He knew how the "our boys" media playing with their toys would respond and did it anyway. A remarkable man and a great loss.
His view also had about two-thirds of the country behind it, as well as virtually his entire party, which made it rather less politically dangerous. Indeed, for him, supporting the government would have been the more politically dangerous move.
At the time, opposition was vocal, but there was a fair bit of support for the Iraq invasion:
Farron is so annoyingly predictable. He strikes me as the sort of person who would consistently fall for a 2 move checkmate in chess.
Farron is a pound-shop Charles Kennedy, without the humour or drinking problem but with the same fundamental lack of substance.
Kennedy had huge substance. He also had crippling alcoholism.
Agreed. His opposition to the Iraq war was not only the right call but one requiring huge moral courage and principle. He knew how the "our boys" media playing with their toys would respond and did it anyway. A remarkable man and a great loss.
His view also had about two-thirds of the country behind it, as well as virtually his entire party, which made it rather less politically dangerous. Indeed, for him, supporting the government would have been the more politically dangerous move.
Not the way I remember it. All of the media was onside, Blair was totally dominant, Campbell scared off any questions and IDS was, well, IDS. An irrelevant joke who led his party into support. There was a lot of mumbling in the country but it was a brave thing to do.
"However, a few hours after she made the remarks at Holyrood a spokesman for Mr Davis said she was “not correct” about the exchange, insisting that Mr Russell’s office had specifically requested a conversation on Wednesday."
I would hazard a guess that those areas of the country that voted Remain/Leave in greater margins are also more passionate about their cause. So an area with 70% remain is likely to be comprised of those who were very passionately for remain , and an area with 53% remain is likely to be mostly 'go with the flow' remainers. Vice Versa for Leave.
My point therefore being that the 70% remain in Richmond are significantly less likely to have "accepted" brexit than those in a close race such as Witney, and will be more susceptible to an anti brexit campaign - so more favour to the LDs
"Axa has recommitted to completing the City's biggest tower: 22 Bishopsgate"
As a fine point of interest 22 Bishopsgate is the the original site of Crosby Hall. Built in the 1370's as part of his London home the Hall was dismantled in 1908 and subsequently re-erected in Chelsea just to the North East of Battersea bridge on land that was once Sir Thomas Moore's orchard - Sir Thomas having been a tenant of the Hall in the early 16th century.
Anyone wishing for a copy of the definitive(ish) history of Crosby Hall should apply to HurstLlama and Sons, random historians.
Farron is so annoyingly predictable. He strikes me as the sort of person who would consistently fall for a 2 move checkmate in chess.
Farron is a pound-shop Charles Kennedy, without the humour or drinking problem but with the same fundamental lack of substance.
Kennedy had huge substance. He also had crippling alcoholism.
Agreed. His opposition to the Iraq war was not only the right call but one requiring huge moral courage and principle. He knew how the "our boys" media playing with their toys would respond and did it anyway. A remarkable man and a great loss.
His view also had about two-thirds of the country behind it, as well as virtually his entire party, which made it rather less politically dangerous. Indeed, for him, supporting the government would have been the more politically dangerous move.
Not the way I remember it. All of the media was onside, Blair was totally dominant, Campbell scared off any questions and IDS was, well, IDS. An irrelevant joke who led his party into support. There was a lot of mumbling in the country but it was a brave thing to do.
Never let it be forgotten how disgracefully IDS behaved throughout the whole affair. He was actually banging the drum well before Blair after some shameful manoeuvres in Washington in late 2001 in which he tried to undermine the Atlantic alliance for his own ends.
I would appreciate fellow PBers ripping my analysis to shreds as I have bet some money on this but may go more. Looking at the data, I think HRC is in a lot of trouble in North Carolina.
Go to http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/ It is wordy but good. The key number here is "in person" ballots, not the total absentee as, at this stage it is skewed by mail-in (in 2012, I think 90% of total absentee voting was in-person).
Scroll down until you hit the paragraph starting "In looking at the party registration of in-person absentee voters..." and look at the chart: Democrats are down sharply - 48 percent of the total in-person ballots, down 13 percent from their same-day totals in 2012;Republicans are 28 percent, down slightly at 1 percent from 2012, and registered unaffiliated voters are 24 percent of the total in-person ballots, up 27 percent from their 2012 same-day totals.
But that is not the worst part for HRC: where there seems to be a noticeable drop-off is in African-American early voters as per the charts. Here is the data:
African-American share of absentee in-person votes by day
Millennials also look to be under-represented in early voting (13% of the total).
It may be this changes when early voting in NC expands but it does not look to be impacting other demographics. It appears AAs are less motivated - and that seems to be the case coming out of Ohio as well (-10%). It would also explai why the Obamas are so much on the trail.
From a betting standpoint, I have been putting a few bets on states where the Democrats need heavy AA turn-out and where the White population is more non/some College e.g. MI, PA, OH, even a cheeky bet on NJ.....
DYOR
This ties with what I've been saying about Florida; Dems so far seem substantially weaker on the in-person vote compared to previous elections.
"Axa has recommitted to completing the City's biggest tower: 22 Bishopsgate"
As a fine point of interest 22 Bishopsgate is the the original site of Crosby Hall. Built in the 1370's as part of his London home the Hall was dismantled in 1908 and subsequently re-erected in Chelsea just to the North East of Battersea bridge on land that was once Sir Thomas Moore's orchard - Sir Thomas having been a tenant of the Hall in the early 16th century.
Anyone wishing for a copy of the definitive(ish) history of Crosby Hall should apply to HurstLlama and Sons, random historians.
Tis a fine building and perfectly situated – although following a fire in 1672 only the Great Hall and Parlour wing are the only original bits according to wiki.
In the header Don Brind quotes an anonymous MP as saying, with regard to Zac Goldsmith: “The man’s a disgrace. His office is just along the corridor from mine and I never see him. He obviously doesn’t want to be an MP." I've inserted the closing inverted commas since curiously he omitted them. This rather obnoxious so-called quote would have a great deal more credibility if it was properly attributed to the person concerned, whoever that might have been. It also begs the question as to how Zac Goldsmith has succeeded in establishing such a huge level of personal support within his constituency and thereby a massive majority if as the quote rather snidely suggests he had failed in assiduously performing his duties as an MP. If, in fact, he was absent from the HoC to a greater extent than is normal (whatever that might be), perhaps that was as a result of Mr Goldsmith instead spending a proportionately greater period of time in Richmond Park, meeting with and supporting the needs and interests of his constituents. I wonder whether Mr Brind has bothered to consider such a possibility. Does he consider I wonder, that Gordon Brown was "a disgrace" in barely ever attending the House after ceasing to be Prime Minister?
I confess to only now bothering to read Don Brind's leader. Is this a spoof?
"But for Goldsmith now the one thing worse than losing is winning – but with a dramatically reduced majority. He would be a lame duck MP.”
Lol.
For all sorts of reasons this is a cracker. But let's just say that in a Parliament with a Gov't majority of nearly single figures there's no such thing as a lame duck MP, especially an independent one.
"Jenny Tonge, who Richmond LibDems have put front and centre of their by-election campaign, has hosted an event in parliament in which Jews were blamed for the Holocaust. In the video above Tonge listens and does not interject when an audience member claims Jews “antagonised Hitler” and that the Holocaust was caused by “Judea declaring war on Germany”. Another audience member said “If anybody is antisemitic, it’s Israelis themselves”. The Israeli embassy say the comments are “hard to believe”. http://order-order.com/2016/10/27/jews-blamed-holocaust-jenny-tonge-event/
While, he clearly doesn't have much of a ground game to speak of, Trump appears to be putting his hand in his deep pockets for a late aerial blitzkreig. He's promising to match donations $3 to every $1 donated.
Farron is so annoyingly predictable. He strikes me as the sort of person who would consistently fall for a 2 move checkmate in chess.
Farron is a pound-shop Charles Kennedy, without the humour or drinking problem but with the same fundamental lack of substance.
Kennedy had huge substance. He also had crippling alcoholism.
Agreed. His opposition to the Iraq war was not only the right call but one requiring huge moral courage and principle. He knew how the "our boys" media playing with their toys would respond and did it anyway. A remarkable man and a great loss.
His view also had about two-thirds of the country behind it, as well as virtually his entire party, which made it rather less politically dangerous. Indeed, for him, supporting the government would have been the more politically dangerous move.
Not the way I remember it. All of the media was onside, Blair was totally dominant, Campbell scared off any questions and IDS was, well, IDS. An irrelevant joke who led his party into support. There was a lot of mumbling in the country but it was a brave thing to do.
Never let it be forgotten how disgracefully IDS behaved throughout the whole affair. He was actually banging the drum well before Blair after some shameful manoeuvres in Washington in late 2001 in which he tried to undermine the Atlantic alliance for his own ends.
Hush, honourable man misled by tricky Tony and artful Ali is the correct narrative. Though how IDS contrived to be misled over a year before the misleading took place is a mystery to this day.
"Axa has recommitted to completing the City's biggest tower: 22 Bishopsgate"
As a fine point of interest 22 Bishopsgate is the the original site of Crosby Hall. Built in the 1370's as part of his London home the Hall was dismantled in 1908 and subsequently re-erected in Chelsea just to the North East of Battersea bridge on land that was once Sir Thomas Moore's orchard - Sir Thomas having been a tenant of the Hall in the early 16th century.
Anyone wishing for a copy of the definitive(ish) history of Crosby Hall should apply to HurstLlama and Sons, random historians.
Tis a fine building and perfectly situated – although following a fire in 1672 only the Great Hall and Parlour wing are the only original bits according to wiki.
I don't know about the Wiki site Mr. St Clare, that didn't exist when I did my research but from memory the parlour wing went long before 1908 and only the Hall itself remained. The Hall was taken down stone by stone, plank by plank and put into storage by a bank who wanted the site for its new HQ, somethings don't change in the City.
Mr. Alistair, Revolution was enjoyable but not in-depth enough. It did what it said on the tin, though.
Seconded - the micro-management is what I like about Civ. That is, up to a point - getting rid of unit stacking in V was an excellent move because it got rid of drearily rearranging stacks of 30+ units in the modern era, making turns while you were at war last 15 minutes or more.
the Liberal Democrats have suspended Baroness Tonge. Anti-semitism, again and again and again........
She's been doing this for years, i don't understand why they keep her around. I can see why/how Corbyns lot justify it to themselves but it's not clear why Farron, Clegg et al permitted it in their party? As far as I understand anti-semitism is not widespread in the party and it doesn't really fit in with any liberal ideology
Peter Walker✔ @peterwalker99 Labour have put out a statement hailing the govt's decision to drop grammar school plan. But they've not. It's a different education bill.
the Liberal Democrats have suspended Baroness Tonge. Anti-semitism, again and again and again........
She's been doing this for years, i don't understand why they keep her around. I can see why/how Corbyns lot justify it to themselves but it's not clear why Farron, Clegg et al permitted it in their party? As far as I understand anti-semitism is not widespread in the party and it doesn't really fit in with any liberal ideology
The problem with the Lib Dems is that they have tolerated anti-Semitism for years. They occasionally suspend someone but they always return.
The Lib Dem candidate for Richmond is more than happy to associate with the vile Jenny Tonge.
"Lib Dems SUSPEND peer after she hosts 'genuinely horrifying' House of Lords event where the audience applauded claims that JEWS were responsible for the Holocaust"
Following the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Leader of the Labour Party, Tonge said that she was considering joining Labour, having not seen the party as left-wing enough until the election of Corbyn. Tonge expressed support for Corbyn and the former Labour MP Tony Benn: "I marched alongside Tony Benn and Jeremy Corbyn, one on either side. I went to Gaza with Jeremy Corbyn and we met Hamas leaders together."[44] Deputy Leader of the party Tom Watson has said Tonge would be "welcome" in the party.[45]
Comments
It is a baffling decision to not do at least one proper Civ for consoles.
There'd have to be downgrades in features or graphics, but I still think it'd do well. Not a fan of platform exclusivity (it's a bit daft that PC/Xbox owners can't play The Last Of Us, arguably the best game ever made).
Clinton 46 .. Trump 37
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/27/clinton-nearly-doubles-lead-over-trump-in-latest-cnbc-survey.html
National Tracker - ABC/WAPO - Sample 1,135 - 22-25 Oct
Clinton 48 .. Trump 42
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/slight-shifts-intention-aid-trump-amid-anxiety-candidates/story?id=43080562
National Tracker - Rasmussen - Sample 1,500 - 24-26 Oct
Clinton 45 .. Trump 44
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct27
Poor Plato. She'll probably need a bit of lie down and a cup of strong tea with four sugars.
Clinton 49 .. Trump 42
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/27/upshot/pennsylvania-poll.html?_r=0
Clinton 45 .. Trump 37
http://wlns.com/2016/10/27/poll-clinton-holds-healthy-lead-over-trump-in-michigan/
Go to http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/ It is wordy but good. The key number here is "in person" ballots, not the total absentee as, at this stage it is skewed by mail-in (in 2012, I think 90% of total absentee voting was in-person).
Scroll down until you hit the paragraph starting "In looking at the party registration of in-person absentee voters..." and look at the chart: Democrats are down sharply - 48 percent of the total in-person ballots, down 13 percent from their same-day totals in 2012;Republicans are 28 percent, down slightly at 1 percent from 2012, and registered unaffiliated voters are 24 percent of the total in-person ballots, up 27 percent from their 2012 same-day totals.
But that is not the worst part for HRC: where there seems to be a noticeable drop-off is in African-American early voters as per the charts. Here is the data:
African-American share of absentee in-person votes by day
2012 2016
Day 1 37 28
Day 2 32 24
3 36 27
4 43 36
5 33 25
6 31 22
7 28 21
Millennials also look to be under-represented in early voting (13% of the total).
It may be this changes when early voting in NC expands but it does not look to be impacting other demographics. It appears AAs are less motivated - and that seems to be the case coming out of Ohio as well (-10%). It would also explai why the Obamas are so much on the trail.
From a betting standpoint, I have been putting a few bets on states where the Democrats need heavy AA turn-out and where the White population is more non/some College e.g. MI, PA, OH, even a cheeky bet on NJ.....
DYOR
"One concession he [the Walloon leader] won means Belgium would be able to go to the European court of justice to determine whether the new investor-state tribunals are compatible with EU law. The four-page document also contains a guarantee that the Belgian government will assess the socio-economic and environmental impact of Ceta."
Apparently there is a 4 page Walloon annex to the Ceta treaty.
As I predicted when some were crowing on here about the failed agreement - the Walloons will have their arms twisted.
https://twitter.com/tes/status/791650445588570112
(also, what's the Dutch equivalent of 'Francophone'?)
https://www.tes.com/news/school-news/breaking-news/government-scraps-education-all-bill
I'm very nervous in the sense that I think Trump may pull out a much tighter result than most national polls suggest: nervous not from a betting POV as I'm on Trump but from a personal POV as I can't say I like him.
As for Richmond, I see that UKIP will be supporting Goldsmith 'in order to stop the LD's from winning' http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-backs-goldsmith-to-block-lib-dem-win-10634260
I would suggest it's probably wiser to wait until mid next week to get a fuller picture.
Gove.
The number of early polling places have been restricted in a number of AA heavy areas. This changes over the next few days. IIRC in 2012 the first two days of early voting was over the weekend. Also AA voters have Sunday "souls to the polls" events.
I would suggest it's probably wiser to wait until mid next week to get a fuller picture.
Jack W, agree and that has been the one factor that has held me back piling in morebut HRC should probably also be worried re the millennials / unaffiliated data (if independents are breaking for Trump).
More broadly, we do not have much early voting in states with high AA urban populations but, in what there is (NC and Ohio), it does not look good for the Democrats.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/791648893725450240?lang=en-gb
Some people can do this thing called multi-tasking...
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/03/remembering-iraq/
'Farron is so annoyingly predictable. He strikes me as the sort of person who would consistently fall for a 2 move checkmate in chess. '
Was Farron the only Lib Dem MP not to get a job in the coalition government ?.
https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/call-waiting-david-davis-takes-36-hours-respond-new-direct-line-brexit/
"However, a few hours after she made the remarks at Holyrood a spokesman for Mr Davis said she was “not correct” about the exchange, insisting that Mr Russell’s office had specifically requested a conversation on Wednesday."
Got to do with it?
What's Gove
But a second-hand emotion?
Good GDP news, although people will say that nothing has actually happened yet.
My point therefore being that the 70% remain in Richmond are significantly less likely to have "accepted" brexit than those in a close race such as Witney, and will be more susceptible to an anti brexit campaign - so more favour to the LDs
As a fine point of interest 22 Bishopsgate is the the original site of Crosby Hall. Built in the 1370's as part of his London home the Hall was dismantled in 1908 and subsequently re-erected in Chelsea just to the North East of Battersea bridge on land that was once Sir Thomas Moore's orchard - Sir Thomas having been a tenant of the Hall in the early 16th century.
Anyone wishing for a copy of the definitive(ish) history of Crosby Hall should apply to HurstLlama and Sons, random historians.
“The man’s a disgrace. His office is just along the corridor from mine and I never see him. He obviously doesn’t want to be an MP."
I've inserted the closing inverted commas since curiously he omitted them.
This rather obnoxious so-called quote would have a great deal more credibility if it was properly attributed to the person concerned, whoever that might have been.
It also begs the question as to how Zac Goldsmith has succeeded in establishing such a huge level of personal support within his constituency and thereby a massive majority if as the quote rather snidely suggests he had failed in assiduously performing his duties as an MP.
If, in fact, he was absent from the HoC to a greater extent than is normal (whatever that might be), perhaps that was as a result of Mr Goldsmith instead spending a proportionately greater period of time in Richmond Park, meeting with and supporting the needs and interests of his constituents. I wonder whether Mr Brind has bothered to consider such a possibility.
Does he consider I wonder, that Gordon Brown was "a disgrace" in barely ever attending the House after ceasing to be Prime Minister?
"But for Goldsmith now the one thing worse than losing is winning – but with a dramatically reduced majority. He would be a lame duck MP.”
Lol.
For all sorts of reasons this is a cracker. But let's just say that in a Parliament with a Gov't majority of nearly single figures there's no such thing as a lame duck MP, especially an independent one.
http://order-order.com/2016/10/27/libdems-suspend-jenny-tonge/
"Jenny Tonge, who Richmond LibDems have put front and centre of their by-election campaign, has hosted an event in parliament in which Jews were blamed for the Holocaust. In the video above Tonge listens and does not interject when an audience member claims Jews “antagonised Hitler” and that the Holocaust was caused by “Judea declaring war on Germany”. Another audience member said “If anybody is antisemitic, it’s Israelis themselves”. The Israeli embassy say the comments are “hard to believe”.
http://order-order.com/2016/10/27/jews-blamed-holocaust-jenny-tonge-event/
If Perez wins I reserve the right to throw myself off a balcony.
Edited extra bit: just put a tiny sum on Perez as a form of balcony suicide insurance.
Perhaps she can renounce her peerage and run for Corbyn's Labour.
Clinton 46 .. Trump 41
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/27/yougoveconomist-poll-october-22-26-2016/
Verified account @DPJHodges
"Jenny Tonge should apply to join the Labour party. She'd be welcomed with open arms."
Labour have put out a statement hailing the govt's decision to drop grammar school plan. But they've not. It's a different education bill.
AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43 - Sample 1,752
NH - Clinton 49 .. Trump 35 - Sample 861
GA - Clinton 44 .. Trump 46 - Sample 2,567
IA - Clinton 41 .. Trump 44 - Sample 1,337
VA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 39 - Sample 2,739
OH - Clinton 40 - Trump 45 - Sample 2,173
FL - Clinton 47 .. Trump 44 - Sample 3,193
CO - Clinton 45 .. Trump 38 - Sample 1,800
PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 42 - Sample 2,506
NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 43 - Sample 2501
Via 538
https://twitter.com/stvharry/status/791660912117702656
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlandic_European_Communities_membership_referendum,_1982
"Lib Dems SUSPEND peer after she hosts 'genuinely horrifying' House of Lords event where the audience applauded claims that JEWS were responsible for the Holocaust"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3878392/Israel-condemns-shameful-House-Lords-event-audience-applauded-claims-JEWS-responsible-Holocaust.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenny_Tonge,_Baroness_Tonge